GBP AUD Rises after Positive UK Manufacturing Exports (James Lovick)

The pound is finally catching up some lost ground against the Australian dollar following a raft of upbeat UK economic data which is welcome news for sterling exchange rates. GBP AUD has seen a good rally after the Confederation of Business Industry reported an impressive two year high for manufacturing exports. It follows healthy UK unemployment data last week as well as a bumper July for retail sales.

This has been brought about by the recent weakness in the pound which has made British exports much more competitive, but it does still highlight a buoyant manufacturing sector which his performing well. This is excellent and much needed positive news for Britain and could see the pound strengthen further.

Meanwhile in Australia construction data released in the early hours of this morning arrived weaker than expected but also in negative territory suggesting a period of contraction in this sector.

For anyone selling Australian dollars then this is probably the time to consider taking advantage of the current attractive levels. If the Brexit impact on Britain is not as bad as many had forecast then the pound could see further gains across all of the major currencies including the Australian dollar.

UK Gross Domestic Product figures are published on Friday and should make for an interesting end to the week. I cannot see a strong number here and the risk for the pound is that there is a real chance there could be a very small deterioration in the three month period up to the end of June which is when the UK referendum actually took place.

My view is that there may be a fall in GDP to 0.5% which could act as a precursor to weaker growth in the post Brexit period. This would almost certainly present a risk for the pound.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Is there any chance of a Sterling resurgence in the near future? (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Pound Forecast

It has now been over eight weeks since the electorate voted in an advisory referendum to leave the European Union. The current reality of the situation however is I do not think those tasked with implementing a Brexit know how to do so efficiently and indeed when to. Theresa May has stated “Brexit means Brexit”, but despite this there doesn’t seem to be any rush to trigger article 50, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if it was never pushed at all. If this is the case I do not expect any significant Sterling rally short to medium term.

The RBA cut interest rates less than a month ago and it has not had the desired outcome. AUD continues to hold strong, which could be attributed to the continual rise in property prices and property value. It seems even monetary policy is having little effect on weakening the Aussie. The current climate does not bode well for Sterling. If you are buying Aussie it may be wise to move at current levels.

If  you have a currency trade it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is crucial during such a volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog. The quickest method to get in touch is by filling in the form below and we will be in touch ASAP.

 

Quiet period sees Sterling make minor gains against the Australian Dollar (Joshua Privett)

Markets are currently calming down after the surge of negative news which bombarded the UK economy during the first two weeks of the month, where buying Australian Dollar rates tumbled.

To summarise this was the lowest business confidence figures since the great recession which culminated in an interest rate cut in the UK economy, a fresh bout of quantitative easing, and slashed growth forecasts.

Now that the tirade has abated though, standard market forces of large scale buying of the Pound whilst it is cheap and we are seeing the Pound rise (albeit very gradually) due to this increased demand.

However, Australian Dollar buyers should be wary of this Friday where one of the few data releases over the next two weeks are expected – these are UK growth and business investment figures.

Both of these are expected to imitate the underwhelming (a nice way of putting it) data seen at the beginning of the month. Business investment has been siphoned away from the UK since the beginning of this year in the run up to the EU Referendum. There is a reason why investment in the Eurozone is 320% higher than the same time a year before.

As such Australian Dollar sellers may be presented with some further opportunities before this gradual rises may be re-introduced next week.

In the meantime AUD buyers may wish to approach the next few days as a chance to buy whilst the central level is still above 1.7. As many have seen even within a 24 hour period there are more opportune times to conduct a transfer, which is the proactive service which I offer to my customers.

If you have a buying or selling Australian Dollar requirement and I recommend contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and if you have a transfer later in the year, you can also fix any tempting exchange rates available now ahead of time to avoid the potential pitfalls.

You can also fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am available.

Inequality a worry for Australia (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its been reported by the Chifley research center that inequality is set to seriously impact Australia’s GDP by 2020. Inequality has increased between 2011 and 2014 and if this trend continues the research is suggesting the could cost Australian citizens 500 dollars a year by 2019-2020. Furthermore the research center have stated if no action is taken they believe as much as 3% of GDP will be completely wiped out.

Short term Australia have limited data releases this week that will impact the value of the Australian Dollar. Looking ahead the next RBA interest rate decision is set to be released Tuesday 6th. Last month a cut of 0.25% occurred however some economists believed this should have been 0.5%. Therefore there is a chance we could see consecutive rate cuts. If this is the case I expect the Australian dollar will weaken, however I think it would be a premature move by the RBA.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade Australian dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 0044 1494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

When should I buy or sell Australian Dollars?

It has been two months since the UK’s surprise decision to leave the EU, and whilst we wait for the official announcement from parliament, we are no closer to an exit now than we were back in June. As a buyer, you’re probably wondering when the next opportunity to buy Aussie Dollars at pre-referendum rates will be. As a seller, you’re hoping for further downturn in the Pound’s value.

Could GBPAUD exchange rates improve this week?

Until Article 50 is invoked and the UK begins its departure from the EU, the UK remains cushioned by time-sensitive negotiations. The UK essentially remains a member of the EU until this begins, but the real challenges for the UK will begin in April/May, which some have speculated will be when Theresa May pulls the trigger on Article 50.

In the short term, any implications of Brexit will unlikely be felt in its projection of economic data, it may be months before the impact hits the economy. I am therefore not expecting current releases to reflect the true nature of the vote.

Friday’s GDP figures for Q2, especially given the strong retail sales for July may provide further Strength for Sterling.

Should I therefore buy Australian Dollars now?

The last time rates were in these ranges was in the latter part of 2013, when we look at the bigger picture, once Article 50 is invoked Sterling will be under enormous pressure as the UK begins its countdown to exiting the EU.

I personally can’t see rates going above 1.75 anytime soon, whilst the UK enjoys the positive releases of economic comfort the harsh reality will soon hit Sterling as we approach 2017.

As a buyer, current levels remain attractive with further slides likely in the months ahead. Just be mindful that once the UK plans a scheduled notice for Article 50 to be used, Sterling will likely fall.

When should I sell Australian Dollars for Sterling

In the short term I see Pound Sterling making further movements against the Aussie Dollar, economic releases will take some time to spill into the economy post-Brexit and this could provide further comfort.

If you need to sell Aussie Dollars in the short term, ahead of Fridays UK GDP figures for Q2 may be worth considering. As mentioned the UK was performing well before the vote and economic releases could highlight this.

However moving further ahead all the signs point to Aussie Dollar strength against Sterling, Pound will likely lose further value once it becomes known as to when Article 50 will be utilised.

There are other factors that could impact GBPAUD exchange rates this year, the US election could benefit the Aussie Dollar as investors look for higher returns on riskier currencies for example. I would drop me an email at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you’d like to know more.

The Pound performs best against the Australian Dollar last week – what can we expect moving forward? (Joshua Privett)

Luckily for Australian Dollar buyers, they did not suffer the same fate as Euro and US Dollar buyers on Friday afternoon.

Speculative trends for profit taking on Friday afternoon has seen the Pound suffer recently, but commodity based currencies such as the Australian Dollar struggle to make the same kind of gains against the Pound as more traditional safe havens such as the US Dollar.

Therefore, the gains made for the Pound last week against the AUD were left largely intact as we entered the weekend. These gains were made despite strong employment figures released on Thursday in Australia, a surprise given the normally quieter winter months on this front.

More than twice the expected number of new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month, but this was totally eclipsed by the first piece of positive news for the UK in some time.

Firstly, inflation at the beginning of the week showed a slight rise after what has been nearly 8 months of decline. The reasoning behind this was shown on Thursday, when retail sales figures for the UK were shown to explode. 

A 6% increase reflected complete confidence in spending activity in the UK, and this healthier look as economic activity was reflected in the inflation figures.

After beginning last week moored in the mid 1.6’s, central levels are now back above 1.7. What can we expect moving forward?

With almost no performance information coming out of Australia, GBP/AUD rates will be entirely governed by UK performance information this week.

Data from the UK housing market will begin the week, which is unlikely to cause much of a stir as markets are already aware the situation is relatively shakey. The data would have to come in alarmingly below or above market expectations to cause much difference.

However, Friday should be seen as a red flag for anyone considering buying Australian Dollars, as UK growth and business investment figures will be released.

Growth forecasts have already been downgraded for the UK and expectations for investment are understandably down due to the current limbo established in the post-Brexit vote landscape.

The momentum is with the Pound, but AUD buyers should not expect massive gains this week, and we could see a downturn as early as Tuesday if housing data comes in even lower than expected.

It’s best to be in a position to move quickly in these situations should any tempting opportunities occur. If you have an Australian Dollar buying or selling requirement I recommend contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

You can also fill out the form below.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so in addition to help in planning your transfer, a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming move, property purchase, or business invoice.

 

 

Sterling makes gains against the Australian Dollar (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week would suggest that the pound has started to level out against the Australian Dollar as GBPAUD started the week in the 1.69s and finished in the mid 1.71s.

The pound strengthened this week when inflation, retail sales and unemployment numbers all exceeded expectation. Many economists predicted the opposite as they believed the ‘Brexit’ would have had a detrimental impact on the UK’s economic data releases.

It was a quiet week for Australian data releases, one to note was the RBA’s minutes released early Tuesday morning. The minutes stated the RBA expected a period of growth in Australia therefore its a surprise this data release didn’t help the Australian dollar to strengthen against sterling this week.

Looking ahead, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, is set to give his latest inflation hearings Tuesday. It will be no surprise that he believes inflation is set to rise as the BoE have cut interest rates and are injecting stimulus into the economy. As for Australia, there are no data releases set to be released this week that should have a major impact on exchange rates.

Australian dollar sellers have seen over a 30 cent gain against sterling and now the market has appeared to have levelled out it may be worth thinking about putting a strategy in place.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade Australian dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 0044 1494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn. Please note I am not back in the office until Monday morning.

UK Retail Figures give Pound a much needed Boost – Pound forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson)

GBP Forecast

The Pound has fallen substantially against most major currencies due to the Brexit vote. The majority of UK data has been poor and the pound has suffered as a result. The data that has come through has been predominantly  pre-brexit. July data is now coming through and I feel we will begin to see the true extent of the damage caused by a vote to leave the European Union. Going against the grain, UK retail sales figures came in better than expected for July and we saw GBP spike as a result. I would not put my hopes on the rally to continue however. I think this can be put down to an increase in tourism due to the low price of Sterling and the excellent whether in UK as of late. The Bank of England (BOE) has recently dropped interest rates and increased Quantitative Easing (QE) after poor Purchase Managers Index (PMI) figures. PMI is an indication of manufacturing in Britain and this coupled with poor Industrial output data caused the change in monetary policy.  Ian McCafferty a key member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) has said that should we see more poor UK data more monetary easing is a strong possibility.  I believe Sterling will drop further against the Australian Dollar, if you have an Aussie Dollar requirement it may be wise to move sooner rather than later.

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an seasoned broker. The timing of your trade is crucial during such volatile times,.If you have an veteran broker on board he or she can be your eyes and ears in the market and help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of ex. Here at Foreign Currency Direct PLC we are constantly up to speed with the data releases and events that move the currency markets enabling us to contact you at prime moments to maximise the return on your transfer. By choosing me as your would be looking at around a 3-4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do  to get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog. You can also fill in the contact form below and I will be in touch as soon as possible.

Sterling Strength from Shock Retail Sales Figures (Ben Fletcher)

This morning the UK released Retail sales figures for July which were substantially better than expected showing a major improvement from a wet June. Sterling this week has had good inflation data along with a reduction in the unemployed figures. The good news today boosted the GBP/AUD rate back into the 1.71’s for the first time in 10 days.

Australian Unemployment Down

This morning the unemployment rate for Australia dropped by 0.1% and there was a further 26,000 jobs created well over double what was expected. Off the back of this data the Aussie managed to gain a cent through the night, however when the UK data was released it was lost.

 Moody’s Rating Suggests Britain to Avoid Recession

The well-respected ratings Agency Moody this morning has released a report suggesting the UK is resilient enough to avoid recession and that the global slowdown will start to pick up. There has been plenty of uncertainty for Sterling in the short term and building confidence will be the key to get strength in the Pound.

Moody’s went on to suggest that the biggest threat to the global economy was the US. The US Presidential election has brought concerns due to some candidates involved. However they pointed to an interest rate hike in the US having a major effect on emerging markets and Europe. Investors would be inclined to move their funds back to the US if there was a hike.

What is clear in this volatile market is being informed could save you thousands. Sterling and the Aussie have both got external and internal factors causing major market swings. In the short term I believe Sterling could find further strength, but I don’t think the Pound is by any stretch in the clear.

Working for an established brokerage allows me to achieve the best rates of exchange for my clients. I am also able to assist with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you would like some information with regards to my currency forecast please email me at brf@currencies.co.uk.  

When is the best time to buy Australian dollars?

Overnight Australian Unemployment was shown to be better than expected which has helped contribute to a further spike in the value of the Australian dollar. Earlier in the week some positive UK Inflation data helped the pound a little pushing GBPAUD back over 1.70 but currently we are in the 1.69’s. With the Australian central bank the Reserve Bank of Australia having cut interest rates recently and many commentators stating that they don’t feel cutting interest rates will really help the Australian economy very much I don’t see there being much chance of significant renewed AUD weakness. There is always the outside chance of some negative news from China contributing to a weaker Aussie but with some of the more recent Chinese data showing positive trends for now attention remains on the pound. Plus the Australian currency at 1.5% has a much higher interest rate which will present better returns for investors seeking a higher return, this keeps the Aussie favourable against say sterling with almost 0% interest rates.

The pound to Australian dollar rate has slipped from over 2 to now in the 1.60’s just like we predicted on a Leave vote. GBPAUD rates have been flirting with 1.70 and the big question now is will it drop further, when will be the best time to buy Australian dollars? Well it would appear that if you have Australian dollars to buy then moving sooner rather than later is probably the safest bet. This is because much of the recent movement on sterling is linked to the outcome of the Referendum and so far we know very little detail about what this actually means in practice. This political uncertainty is contributing to a slowdown in business and consumer activity which is leading to poor economic data and surprise, surprise the pound is falling!

If you have a transfer involving buying the pound or Australian dollar and wish to learn more about the forecast and your options why not get in touch with one of highly experienced and knowledgeable team? My name is Jonathan Watson and I personally have been helping clients buying and selling currency for over 7 years. Even if you believe you a system in place double checking your exchange rate and information could prove invaluable. I personally have never had any problem getting my clients much better exchange rates than their banks, or their currency broker. For more information please fill in the contact form or if you prefer a more direct and personal approach please email me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.