Sterling has continued its strong rally against the Australian dollar having shifted 10 cents in last 10 days (5.8%). This makes a difference of AUD 20,000 on a £200k transfer.
Data from Australia has been relatively light this week highlighting how dominant sterling has been and just how the Scottish independence vote is influencing the value of the pound. With voting having started this morning and the results scheduled for 07:30 tomorrow morning, the next 24 hours are likely to be extremely volatile. I for one believe the ‘no’ camp will prevail and this is bound to lend further support to sterling and I would look for a shift towards 1.85.
Overnight the RBA bulletin gave little insight as to future monetary policy but I still believe the RBA will be uncomfortable with the value of the dollar and this 10 cent shift will have been a welcome move.
Looking at today’s data, and away from the Scottish independence vote, look out for UK retail sales data at 09:30. Figures expected to improve from 0.1% to 0.4% month on month and should boost sterling.
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The Australian Dollar is still on its feet even though it did take quite a bashing against all major throughout trading last week.
Despite comments from the RBA Governor Stevens that he felt the Australian Dollar was overvalued at present and news from China that we could well see a change in fiscal policies and potentially some stimulation measures to be put into place in the near future.
Chinese data can have quite an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar as they use so many raw materials and import a lot from Australia. The building boom in China has had tongues wagging for a while as to how long it can last and when we may see a slow down over there and it appears it may be coming.
My personal view on the Australian Dollar at present is that there is a much higher chance of it getting weaker over the coming months than stronger, if you are looking to sell Australian Dollars and exchange them into Sterling, Euros or Dollars then it may be prudent to act sooner rather than later, although of course you never know for sure exactly what may happen as a lot of surprises to pop up on the currency markets.
For anyone with an interest in Sterling you may wish to keep a keen eye on the pending Scottish referendum as this could also have a big impact on the Pound in the next 48 hours.
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It’s been a volatile few days for GBP/AUD exchange rates, with the general theme being a weakness in the value of the AUD against GBP. GBP/AUD rates have moved over 7 cents from last week and at yesterday’s low had moved back above 1.80 against Sterling.
The recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, coupled with poor data from China has hit the AUD hard just as it seemed it was gaining some momentum after a difficult 12 months against most of the other major currencies. The RBA still felt the AUD was too strong which was negatively affecting their once affluent export industry. Add to this concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth and it has conspired to push GBP/AUD back to the current levels. In fact we have even seen a positive move for the AUD today due to mixed inflation data for the UK, which has helped push the currency pair back under 1.80 on the exchange.
With all eyes now focused on Thursday’s Scottish referendum we could see further volatility on GBP/AUD as Sterling is likely to be heavily affected by the result. We also have the latest RBA report and annual bulletin overnight on Thursday so expect further movement following these releases.
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After a dreadful start to the week with GBPAUD exchange rates in the lower levels of the 1.70s mark we have seen a dramatic comeback by Sterling to almost 1.80 during Friday afternoon’s trading session.
The uncertainty surrounding the Scottish vote at the start of last week saw Sterling drop very quickly against the Australian Dollar but has since gained almost 8 cents in a week. Such large movement can also be attributed to what is happening in the US.
With the world’s leading economy about to end their tapering in October and a suggestion that US interest rates may rise in the next 6 months investors are again buying US Dollars. If you’re transferring Australian Dollars and Sterling why would this make any difference to me you may ask?
With the ECB having cut interest rates earlier this month and the instability surrounding the United Kingdom investors have bought the US Dollar and sold off riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar. The movement has been very quick which signals to me that investors are nervous about holding the Australian Dollar which was a large reason for the fall last week.
With the Scottish referendum due on Thursday this week I think we’ll see further uncertainty which could well see the GBPAUD rate go upwards of 1.80 this week.
The RBA minutes are published early Tuesday morning which could also cause volatility.
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The Aussie has weakened as the pound strengthens against it following much better indications of a No vote in the Scottish referendum. Sterling has been very susceptible to weakness on the back of indications the Scottish people may vote Yes in the upcoming independence decider.
On the whole I think post people expect that the No comp will prevail but this is certainly leading to uncertainty and the pound has been swinging up to 1% a day against the Aussie this week, this is something to consider if you need to buy or sell AUD soon. Next Thursday is the date of the referendum and I would expect many more volatile days before that day, the Thursday should be a fairly interesting day itself too.
If you need to buy or sell AUD with sterling I would be preparing for this release and taking stock of the current uncertainty and any possible opportunities this may present. For more information please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com
What a week it has been for the GBP/AUD rate of exchange. We have volatile swings in the market with the lows being in the 1.71′s and the highs spiking in the 1.79′s. This is a difference of 4.5% from the high to low and has caused concern for those of you looking at buying or selling the currency pair.
The biggest mover for the pound has been down to the Scottish referendum which is headline news at the moment. Monday was the low point in the week when many clients were selling their AUD as the polls in the UK showed that the YES vote was ahead. Over the rest of the week the polls started to turn and showed that the NO campaign was once again ahead and has assisted the pound to recover all of its looses now back at 1.79.
Looking forward the voting will take place on the 18th of this month and with a week now to go if the polls continue to show the NO vote ahead we expect the pound to remain strong. We feel it is unlikely that the Scottish citizens will vote for independence and it could assist the pound to continue to move upwards the closer we get to the next interest rate rise.
Overnight the unemployment data will be out down under and could help a slight rebound for the Aussie. With how the current data sets have been performing I feel it will give the opportunity for further sterling gains. if you are selling the AUD you will be wise to look at your exchange sooner rather than later to stop any further losses. Targets of 1.85 could be around the corner.
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Improved unemployment figures in Australia but the dollar still weakens against the pound (Mike Vaughan)
Following the pounds losses earlier this week (due to Sundays poll suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was taking the lead in the Scottish referendum) the pound has rebounded five cents or nearly 3% since Monday. The move came about as the latest opinion poll puts the ‘no’ vote at 53% - for me the vote is likely to be a no and it is this that I believe will lend more support to sterling and push levels back though the 1.80 level. For this reasons should you be selling AUD then current rates should still look like an opportunity.
Overnight the Australian unemployment data fell to 6.1% from 6.4% but did little to affect the AUD exchange rate suggesting the current market is dominated by the movement of sterling. This volatility is set to continue for the next week until the vote passes on the 18th.
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