Quiet Day For Exchange Rates Today But Tomorrow And Thursday Could Be Very Volatile So Be Prepared (Colm Gilhooly)

I anticipate today will be fairly quiet without much data of note as everybody will be waiting to see what happens with US GDP and the Fed interest rate decision tomorrow, and EU CPU and unemployment figures on Thursday.  Sterling Aussie is still hovering just over 1.80 and I expect any variation in US monetary policy will have an impact on the commodity currencies like the Aussie.

In the short term I still expect GBP AUD to see saw around 1.80 but I think the Aussie could make further gains against the Euro, particularly if EU inflation is low on Thursday.  The next ECB rate decision is in early August and whilst I don’t think they will take action so soon after having just cut interest rates, the accompanying press conference that goes with the decision will be hugely important.

If you need to transfer money to Australia, and want to get the best exchange rate, then getting the timing right on your currency exchange is vital.  The data releases that affect currency rates can cause market movement within seconds, so feel free to email me for more information about our currency transfer services and how we can keep you abreast of events.  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk

Short term forecast GBPAUD rates of exchange

GBPAUD rates have dropped again over the weekend and many have been asking whether we they should trade now or hold. The decision really depends on the time frame within which you need to make your transfer and the risk appetite that you have. No one can guarantee anything in the currency market as no one has a crystal ball.  Saying that however trends can be found along with economic data releases suggesting day trends.

The GBPAUD pairing is one that does have shorter trends than most. Larger longer term swings are seen however trends can still be found and taken advantage off.

The larger trends are normally driven by the more central policy decisions like interest rate decisions and QE programs. Currently there seems to be a clear path that the UK will raise interest rates in the medium term, suggesting that there will be better times to trade buying AUD between now and the end of the year.  In the shorter term US data seems to be positive and helping strengthen the AUD along with a hand up from China data which is also helping.  In the 24 hour window we look at economic data releases to see what is expected and what could happen.

This week US jobless data at the end of the week is probably the largest impacting data release however watch out for end of month movement which could also swing markets on Thursday Friday. So back to the question, what would I do?  If I was a GBPAUD trader this week I would hold until Wednesday, if I had a month I would wait for another 14 days, if I have 3 months I would wait until September before making a decision.  If I was a AUDGBP trader looking to move this week I would go ASAP, within the month I would probably not be far off and look at moving maybe next week if my nerves lasted and if I have three months I would probably still move sooner rather than later.

If you however have a large amount of money, remember you don’t need to move in one go.  You could split the amount and therefore the risk to the market giving you a better average rate of exchange.

For more information, a breakdown of each strategy, the forecasted prices in the future or simply a live price please contact the author STEVE EAKINS via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling rise this week? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has remained just above 1.80 for most of last week even after the interest rate rise in New Zealand.

Typically if the economy in New Zealand strengthens this tends to have a knock on effect on the Australian Dollar. It could be argued that this is one of the reasons why the Aussie Dollar remained at 1.80 instead of rising towards 1.82-1.83 levels.

Last week saw the announcement that UK GDP has now reached the peak levels last hit in 2008 pre-credit crunch. This helped to strengthen the Pound across the board against all major currencies and supports the comments from earlier this month when the International Monetary Fund predicted that the UK would be the fastest growing economy in the G7.

Global investors have been unsure recently where to place their funds and it appears as if Sterling is the main benefactor at the moment. With Sterling having reached 2 year highs against the Euro and 5.5 year highs against the US Dollar the Pound seems to be the currency of choice.

I think it is only a matter of time before the Pound gains against the Australian Dollar again as the IMF has also suggested problems with the overall global growth forecast.

As Australia is so heavily reliant on what happens in China if a global slowdown does occur China will be one of the main economies to struggle which in turn could have a huge negative impact on the Aussie Dollar in the longer term. Whether or not the IMF comments are accurate can be argued either way but if they come close to being true this could seriously weaken the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank to transfer currency then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The Australian should remain strong

Despite international tensions rising investors worst fears are failing to be realised and the show goes on! Historically speaking there is always something to be fearful of. A Chinese crash landing, a property crash, a looming stock market crash. All of these fears have so far failed to materialise and consequently the Aussie remains supported offering investors good value.

WAR – What is it good for? Well absolutely nothing, certainly not for the global economy! As global tensions seem to cool markets have sucked up profits on the back of recent currency movements. Next week there isn’t a huge amount of Aussie data so I would expect the continuing global political situation to drive risk appetite and therefore have some impact on Aussie rates.

With such uncertainty around there is lots of potential for some unforeseen spikes in and out of your favour. Spikes of up to one or two cents should not be discounted as news comes out and in these scenarios consensus and expectation can fly out the window as markets move according to fresh news and sentiments. In these situations it is those prepared who capitalise so if you are planning anything soon with the Aussie why not make some contact with us to see if we can give you some useful information?

GBPAUD forecast – NZD impact and US Carry trades explained

GBPAUD rates have changed by only a small degree today following the UK GDP figures which were expected to be better than they were.  Overall rates have continued to move in a slightly negative direction for AUD buyers.  Overnight we also had news from New Zealand which did have an impact on the value of the AUD.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expectedly raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.5%.  Importantly however and probably what was more of an impact on the market was the views and commentary given thereafter.  The Governor Mr Wheeler said that the currency value was unjustified, unsustainable and had the potential to fall significantly.  This has pointed towards the direction of currency intervention by the central bank which has resulted in the NZD getting weaker.

Next week data which traditionally drives the markets are fairly light. This is due to it being the last week of the month however information from the US is expected at the end of the week.  Regular readers will know that this could provide an opportunity as the AUD is heavily impacted by what happens in the US.  This is down to the CARRY TRADE, a carry trade is what financial institutions use to try and make money internationally. So they borrow money in a low interest currency and invest it in a higher interest base country.  They are however open to currency movement so are very touchy with risk. When risk is high, demand for carry trades increase whereas if risk is low the demand for carry trades also falls and this change in demand can happily have an impact on the demand for the currency and therefore its value.  So depending what the world’s largest economy does has a significant impact on the carry trade, the demand and therefore the cost of the AUD.

Scary to think all the factors that can impact the market and how expensive anything from a holiday to a holiday home can be in the matter of minutes….

If you would like more information on how this could impact you, the options available or a live price from one of the country’s leading currency broker please feel free to get in contact.

Contact the author – STEVE EAKINS – via his direct email hse@currencies.co.uk

Weaker Retail Figures Causes Sterling To Slip Versus The Aussie Dollar (Colm Gilhooly)

UK retail figures came in below forecast today and caused sterling to slump further after yesterday’s losses from the Bank of England Minutes.  The figure may have been partially due to England’s dismal display in the world cup not allowing for the level of spending some retailers anticipated, and it served to reign back a rampaging pound.  Whilst the UK is recovering well it still doesn’t mean that an interest rate hike is imminent based on the Minutes and retail figures.

However we do have UK GDP figures out for Q2 tomorrow so a strong showing could reverse some of today’s losses so keep a close eye on things at 9.30.  With Aussie inflation rising earlier in the week the Aussie sterling see-saw has tipped back in the Aussies favour, and as predicted is still hovering near the 1.80 barrier.

It looks as though this series of peaks and troughs is likely to continue as data comes out above and below expectations for both currencies so well worth taking advantage of these movements via stop loss and limit orders. If you need to make a currency transfer and would like help then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our service works.

Weaker UK retail sales figures pushes GBP/AUD back through 1.80 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has started the day on the back foot against a host of currencies including the Australian Dollar following some weaker than forecast retail sales figures this morning. An expected figure month on month of 0.3% came in at 0.1% causing a shift against the value of sterling. This caused a continuation of the recent trend for GBP/AUD which has now sat range bound between 1.79-82 for a number of weeks. With current levels near the bottom end this weeks shift could be an opportunity for anyone selling AUD.

Tomorrow will also see another important release from the UK with the latest GDP figures released at 09:30. Should these track today’s weaker retails sales then another shift against the pound could be seen.

Should you have an upcoming foreign exchange transfer to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me with a brief overview of your currency requirement and I will happily contact you with more information. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have multiple contracts available the help maximise our clients transfer. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Australian Dollar gains strength against the Pound and edges close to 1.80 once more (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar has had another good day on the currency market, gaining almost 1% against Sterling during the trading day over in the U.K.

Strong Inflation figures,  RBA Governor Stevens Comments and the Monetary Policy Committee from the Bank Of England all voting in favour of no interest rate movement at the last interest rate decision appear to be the main reasons behind such a vast movement.

We are now stuck back at the pivotal point of 1.80, which seems to be the pattern for the past few months, one concern for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars is that we have seen the exchange rate attempt to drop below 1.80 and stay below it on a couple of occasions yet fail, but now Governor Stevens appears to have changed his tune on the strength of the Australian Dollar yet again and with inflation riding high, it may be prudent to secure part of your currency just to protect yourself against any further adverse market movements.

I deal with currency transfers for people all over the world and involving all major currencies, and the company I work for has won best exchange rate awards against other brokerages and the banks, so getting in contact with me directly for a comparison will usually save you money, in fact over the past four years I have helped thousands of regular readers save money over their current currency provider so if you feel you aren’t getting the best exchange rates or level of service and you want to just double check then feel free to email  me (Daniel Wright) directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I may be able to help you.

Sterling Rises in run up to Bank of England Minutes (Tom Holian)

The Bank of England minutes are due shortly for release and we will learn of the recent voting patterns by the Monetary Policy Committee from earlier this month.

Recently we have seen a consistent 9-0 vote against doing anything with interest rates in the UK but with a lot of positive data out in the UK more pressure is rising for an earlier rate rise than currently expected.

The statement following the minutes could provide us with more clues as to future monetary policy and I think in Mark Carney’s speech due at 1245pm UK time we could see Sterling advancing further against the Australian Dollar.

Tomorrow UK Retail Sales are due and with the weather having been very good recently and also the World Cup consumers are likely to have been spending more during this period. Therefore, I think this data will be strong and could see Sterling on the rise.

UK GDP data is out on Friday morning and with an Ernst & Young Item Club recently suggesting 3.1% this is also the highest out of the G7 nations. If the figures on Friday back this up expect Sterling strength against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank to transfer currency then contact me directly for  a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBP/AUD Rates Drop During Tuesday Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dropped during Tuesday’s trading, which is a likely market reaction to RBA governor Glen Stevens speech last night, in which he was very positive regarding the Australian economic recovery. He stated he was happy with the current monetary policy and despite confirming he would act again if necessary, the markets have reacted positively to his statement.

This positive spike is likely to push GBP/AUD rates back toward 1.80 on the exchange, so if you have a short-term AUD requirement it may be worth looking at our forward contract options. This allows you to lock in an attractive exchange rate for a set period of time, without being concerned if the exchange rates get worse during this period.

The AUD has struggled against most of the major currencies recently, in particular the Pound. Although it has moved away from the lows witnessed at the turn of the year, the AUD has lost over 40 cents from the highs of 2013. This has allowed the Australian economy to kick start its export industry again and we are now potentially seeing the start of a recovery. Whilst I do not anticipate a move back to 1.40 we could see GBP/AUD rates breach 1.75 before the end of the year, if the improvement seen in the Australian and Chinese (Australia’s largest trading partner) economies continue.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, the please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk