GBPAUD struggles to maintain recent form

The GBPAUD exchange rate has slipped lower from the highs of 1.69 and 1.70 fairly recently as investor concerns over the outlook for the UK to raise interest rates increase. Yesterday was the latest Inflation data for the UK and today is Unemployment data where we will get the latest news on Wage Inflation. A big driver on GBPAUD rates this week is how the market reacts to the prospect of the UK raising interest rates which now looks less likely.

Overall the Australian dollar has been stronger against sterling after investors retain an interest in the higher yielding Australian dollar which represents a very good opportunity to earn a higher yield on their investments. The big news on the Australian dollar will be the Unemployment data which is released tomorrow evening and could see the Aussie even stronger against the pound.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is key to understanding the current trends and themes in the market. With there being a high chance the pound will lose further value GBPAUD rates could be well worth considering if you have to buy Australian dollars with pounds.

We are currently at some of the better rates of this year, the worst deals were in the 1.50’s so with 1.70 only a couple of cents away and the forecast in my opinion pointing downwards say to the mid or lower 1.60’s, I think if you are buying Australian dollars moving sooner would be the best course of action.

For AUD sellers buying pounds the market remains very favourable so if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling please don’t hesitate to get in touch and discuss further the market and how we can help you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information.

Selling Australian Dollars – Dollar Resilient after Weaker US Inflation

The Australian dollar has been performing slightly better of late after a disappointing inflation report from the US which could persuade the US Fed to pause on the rate increase cycle where a hike has been widely expected this December.

Those clients looking to convert Euros into Australian dollars are seeing levels sitting just off a one year high for this pair. The recent economic improvement in the Eurozone with steady economic growth and higher inflation has helped see a strong rally for Euro exchange rates over the last six months. There is a strong chance the European Central Bank will look to taper its asset purchasing scheme at the next meeting and this should help the Euro strengthen further. EUR AUD is currently sitting at 1.50 for this pair and there may be some more room in this rally. For anyone selling Euros for Australian dollars there could be some better opportunities to come so please get in touch for assistance with the timing of your future exchange.

The pound has fallen against the Australian dollar in afternoon trade today as Brexit uncertainty continues to be the main driver for sterling Australian dollar exchange rates. GBP AUD slipped to a low of 1.6793 earlier today moving well away from the 1.70 barrier. Despite UK inflation hitting 3% earlier today the markets are still not fully convinced that there will be an interest rate increase at the November meeting. This uncertainty is keeping additional pressure on the pound although my view is that the Bank will look to raise interest rates at the November meeting.

Comments from Mark Carney today were also very hawkish in that he said he expected inflation to rise even further. A rate increase by 0.25% in November seems the logical step for me and the pound should rally by a small degree on the back of it. Clients buying Australian dollars might be wise to see the outcome

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Why does the Australian dollar remain strong when iron ore prices continue to fall?

For regular readers they will be aware that Australia’s largest export Iron ore has a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. If iron ore prices fall the trend is for the Australian dollar to fall and vice versa. However, iron ore prices have been falling recent however Australian dollar exchange rates remain resilient. There are two main reasons for this.

Another trend that has an impact on Australian dollar exchange rates is the performance of emerging markets. When emerging stock markets outpace that of developed the Australian dollar also performs well. In recent months emerging markets have been performing well and forecasters expect this trend to continue. In addition, interest rate forecasters tend to disagree with the RBA as they believe the RBA will hike interest rates throughout 2018.

Commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia, I believe will continue to dictate exchange rates   therefore people with an upcoming Australian dollar exchange should continue to monitor developments.

Economic data releases that will impact Australian dollar exchange rates 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning the RBA are set to release their latest minutes. My personal opinion is that the Governor does not want to strengthen the Australian dollar any further and thats why he continues with the stance of interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if the minutes give any further insight.

Later in the week (Thursday) the latest unemployment numbers will be released. Over the last 3 years the Australian job market has gone from strength to strength and at present remains at a record low of 5.6%. The Governor of the RBA is wary that if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen the job market could be impacted however for the time being it looks like the unemployment numbers will remain at 5.6%.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Brexit talks dominate Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has had a very volatile week so far with GBPAUD rates moving by as much as 3 cents from the high to low.

The movements have been caused by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit discussions but have overnight moved in a positive direction briefly touching 1.70 before falling again.

The European Union has started to prepare a plan for its post-Brexit negotiations with the UK but at the same time refusing to discuss any details with the UK.

Nothing has been agreed but rumours are that the EU will be open to the UK in order to encourage a deal which is a positive sign for the UK and this is why we saw the Pound make gains vs the Australian Dollar yesterday evening providing some better opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

So far there has been insufficient progress with the talks but in the draft paper EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier wants to cover the key topics of EU citizens in the UK, peace in Northern Ireland and the so called ‘divorce bill.’

Later on this afternoon there is a huge amount of data coming from the US with the release of both Retail Sales as well as Inflation figures and this could cause further volatility on GBPAUD exchange rates to end the week.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

 

Busy day for GBP/AUD exchange rate, can we expect to see similar volatility moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been trading in a volatile fashion today as a number of headlines have resulted in Sterling movement.

Although there is no major data set for release out of the UK this week, and there was little released today by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound move further as Brexit talks appear to be heating up.

This afternoon we saw the Pound sold off as it appeared that Brexit Secretary David Davis has a different opinion to his European counterparts regarding how Brexit negotiations are going. The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde today also threw her hat into the mix and stated that there needs to be more clarity regarding the Brexit, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unimaginable.

The downward trend has since reversed for the Pound as in the last 30 minutes or so its been reported that Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit has stated that the EU could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market after Brexit.

In a market like this its very difficult to judge which way the market will move, but working on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to the sudden moves.

Today’s price movement has been over 1.25% which on large currency transfers can equate to a substantial amount of money, which is where timing your transfers can really make the difference.

There are no major announcements out of Australia either this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment with today’s trading session being a clear example of how comments from significant personnel can move the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar gains a little strength after higher inflation expectations (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained a little ground against most major currencies during trading yesterday, following news that expectations for inflation over the next 12 months had risen from 3.8% in September to 4.3% currently.

On top of this, the number of participants in the inflation survey expecting inflation to be on the up rose from 58.4% to 62.8%, with only 3.8% expecting inflation to fall.

The reason that this has led to a little Australian Dollar strength is that it increases the chance of an interest rate hike. An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors and a cut in interest rates is generally seen as negative.

One way of slowing rising inflation is to hike interest rates, so the fact that inflation is expected to continue rising at a fairly rapid pace may well lead to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) having to reconsider when they next intend to hike interest rates. At present some institutions feel that we may see a hike in early 2018 whilst others are not expecting any rate hikes now until at least 2019, the market appears to be split.

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly flat period this week against most majors, and with little data for the market to feed off of for the rest of the week I would expect this trend to continue. Next week focus will be on the RBA meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and unemployment data too, so there is certainly potential for a lot more movement.

If you have a currency exchange to make involving the Australian Dollar and you would like me to assist you then I can, both in terms of getting you to top market rates and helping you with the timing of your transaction.

If you would like to speak with me directly about our service, and to get a live quote from me then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will get in touch personally. We help people moving money to and from Australia for emigration and many other reasons and would love to help you too.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in October?

The pound to Australian dollar rate is looking more and more fragile in recent weeks yet has remained in the higher 1.60’s and even over 1.70 since the beginning of September. With wage growth a concern and consumer confidence starting to slip there is a growing concern there will not be any interest rate hikes for some time down under. This has seen the Australian dollar weaker as investor debate the next move from the RBA, further weakness on the Australian dollar would not be too surprising at all.

Buying Australian dollars with pounds has become much less costly in the last month as the pound surged on an expectation the Bank of England might raise interest rates next month. Coupled with mounting concerns over the dates for any possible Australian interest rate hikes GBPAUD climbed to some of the best rates since June.

Despite the inherent uncertainty over Brexit the pound is much better supported on renewed belief the UK Government under Theresa May will deliver Brexit. With a transitional period being discussed to extend the time frame for when the UK legally leaves the EU, there is now scope for the pound to find more support.

Whilst uncertainty over Brexit and a renewed confidence in the Aussie could see us shift lower in the the mid 1.60’s or even lower, for now the outlook seems to favour GBPAUD in a range of 1.68-1.73, I see it finding supporting above 1.70 in the next few weeks.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollar making plans around these key events is vital to getting the best deals. If you wish to discuss your transfer in more detail please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Uncertain as Brexit Falters (James Lovick)

GBP AUD is being driven this week by developments in the Brexit negotiations which went into the fifth round of the negotiations this week. The pound has seen a hugely volatile few weeks after the change of stance from the Bank of England where an interest rate is expected in the coming months and the growing uncertainty over Brexit.

There is a 50% chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at the November meeting whilst the markets have fully priced in a rate hike by February 2018. A rate hike would be good news for sterling Australian dollar exchange rates but the uncertainly of Brexit is likely to keep the pound under pressure.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pound would be wise to consider all options as in these markets anything can happen very quickly. The stalemate with Brexit negotiations is something to be very aware of as any speeches from the Prime Minister or other EU leaders can have a direct impact on rates.

Those clients with looking to buy or sell Euros with Australian dollars could see an interesting few days after the Catalonia outcome expected very shortly.

Westpac consumer confidence down under is released overnight and can be seen as a good barometer on the state of the Australian economy and how resilient consumers are. The Reserve Bank of Australia have raised concerns over the strength of the Australian dollar so it may be a matter of time before the conversation moves towards additional stimulus or at least talk of a possible interest rate decrease. This is widely regarded as jawboning and can see the dollar react very quickly.

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Forecast – Political Fears and Uncertain Economies (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have been floating around 1.70 for some time now, with the Pound struggling to make any significant impact above this threshold.

Sterling’s resent woes have been well documented, with political infighting dividing the ruling Conservative party and a seemingly clueless Brexit strategy increasing pressure on the UK economy.

Whilst UK PM Theresa May struggles against a growing tide of public negativity, any improvement in market perception and ultimately investor confidence, is likely to hinge on a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.

However, those clients holding AUD need to remain cautious due to a worrying undertone in the Australian economy. Despite the country not entering into a recession in over 26 years, this figure flatters to deceive somewhat.

Reports this week have suggested that the Australian economy is still far too reliant on “houses & holes”.

This references their typical business cycle, where economic prosperity is driven by the export of their vast supply of raw materials. This is mainly iron ore and liquified gasses, which are then shipped to China their main trading partners. At other times low interest rates and easy credit can boost house prices and when you combine this with the highest population growth in the developed world, it can help to prop up headline growth.

This in turn can mask other economic short-comings, in particular a flagging Manufacturing industry. This was once the envy of other nations but aging, high-cost infrastructure has slowed this sector dramatically.

If these economic problems were to manifest themselves, then the current value against Sterling could look extremely attractive in months, or even years to come.

Brexit negotiations remain stagnated and this is helping to inadvertently boost the AUD’s value but were they to take an upward trajectory, the Pound could fine support above 1.70.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or AUD currency exchange to make, then we can help guide you through this turbulent market

Our award-winning exchange rates and 18 years of experience, has helped our clients achieve the most from their currency exchange, regardless of the market conditions.

If you would like a live quote on any exchange, or simply wish to be kept up to date ahead of any currency transfer then feel free to call me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk