Brexit collapses Australian Dollar buying rates (Joshua Privett)

Friday saw some of the largest single-day falls on record for buying Australian Dollar rates, with GBP/AUD having fallen from close to 2.0 Thursday evening, to below 1.8 by 4am Friday morning in the UK when initial results were being released.

Throughout the day the Pound was moving around with unprecedented volatility. But there were periods of stablisation, which allowed the Pound to regain four cents against the Australian Dollar by close of play on Friday.

Unfortunately for Dollar buyers, rates took the double hit of severe Pound weakness but also a strong surge in Australian Dollar strength. Currencies like AUD fare well in times of uncertainty, as the higher interest on the currency is attractive to investors when more stable gains in safe-haven currencies such as the Pound are lost.

The story still has a lot to unfold, but for the moment, the main news seems to have been released already. Cameron will resign come October, and the public have voted to Leave the European Union, beginning what seems to be a two-year process.

Scottish MP’s are talking loudly about their own Referendum again, and even Northern Ireland have begun murmering similar sentiments. Finally, businesses are already stating that any loss of access to the single market will be met with job losses to Frankfurt, Dublin, or Paris. But all of these are further down the line than currency buyers can plan for at the moment.

Moving forward most movement will be governed by speculative trading off the back of the Brexit result.

The average difference between the high and the low each day for Australian Dollar this year has been around 2-3 cents. This will likely be increased next week.

Therefore opportunities for buying and selling Australian Dollars from this point will present themselves on a daily basis. A premium will simply be put on being able to move quickly, as Friday proved these improvements for either side will be eaten into quickly as speculators seek profit in a volatile marketplace.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me whilst markets are closed over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I offer a tailored service to anyone wishing to exchange currency in this current arena filled with atypical levels of volatility and alert my customers immediately to any opportunities which emerge.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can actually be fixed in place for anyone planning a currency purchase in the future, allowing you to avoid the uncertainty over the next few weeks and their effect on the value of your capital.

 

The impact of the Brexit vote on the Australian Dollar vs the Pound (Tom Holian)

The EU referendum results have confirmed that the UK has voted to leave the European Union. The voting came in at 51.9% to leave and 48.1% to remain and this has caused Sterling exchange rates to plummet against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar.

This has presented some excellent opportunities to sell Australian Dollars into Sterling.

Confidence in the Pound fell sharply and the uncertain future ahead for the UK could cause further losses for Sterling going into next week.

Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation and will stand down as leader in October.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating from stable to negative as they predict a big fall in UK GDP figures and ultimately this could case further problems for Sterling in the longer term.

In the week ahead I expect Sterling to continue to suffer as currency does not like uncertainty and we are now in the midst of a period of both political and economic uncertainty in the UK.

However, we are also not long away from the Australian election and with the voting expected to be close this could cause a wobble for the AUD as we approach the election down under.

Therefore, if you’re thinking of selling Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of these rates.

If you don’t have the full amount of funds available but want to buy currency then speak with me about a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

This can prove useful if you’re worried about the current fluctuations of the GBPAUD rates of exchange.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Please email me with  brief description of your requirement and a phone number and I’ll respond on Monday morning. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Why you should buy Australian Dollar’s now

The Referendum is now over, the UK will be withdrawing their membership from the EU – dates are yet to be confirmed.

The Pound slumped 11% at the start of the trading day whilst investors try to make sense of what’s yet to come.

And this is only the beginning, Boris Johnson’s speech caused the Pound to fall, Nicola Sturgeon’s talk regarding a second Scottish Referendum caused further downtrend.

So what’s next for the UK? How will this impact the Pound? With so much uncertainty ahead, with so many ifs and buts, it’s difficult to predict the long term implications of today’s vote.

If economists, the BoE, business and Financial leaders are all correct, the UK’s economy could be negatively impacted by a Brexit.

What deal the UK get with the EU will impact the Pound, which is looking as if it will be worse than our current arrangements, this of course, could impact trade, employment and thus, inflation. And to add to this, David Cameron resigned in the wake of the results which puts Boris Johnson up as the next potential Prime Minister.

As it stands, GBPAUD exchange rates are in the mid 1.80’s, a low but certainly not a major low as witnessed in 2012 and 2013. The Pound has much more room for weakness and I therefore suggest getting in touch with me if you have an Aussie Dollar requirement. You can email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/AUD Rates Retract Ahead of EU Referendum Results (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have been extremely volatile of late, with the pair shifting almost 20 cents over the past month. This extreme market movement has come in line with increased momentum surrounding the UK EU referendum, which is currently being fought out in poll stations around the country. Whilst the pro’s & cons have been debated for weeks, many of us will be making an emotional decision when we enter the polling booth today. Personally, I feel that an In vote is the lesser of two evils and whilst I’m not a huge fan of many facets of the EU, I do believe that the current economic and political climate lead me towards feeling more secure being part of a wider community.

In terms of the effect the referendum has had on the currency market, the Pound has seen huge swings over the past few weeks, as investors tried to second guess which way the vote would go and factor this in to GBP exchange rates. This week’s increase for the Pound indicates that an In vote is now the more likely outcome but with so many peaks and troughs of late, a further twist to the saga is highly plausible. The AUD has found some support today and it may well be that the markets had factored in a Remain vote and we are now seeing a retraction in the rates.

The markets clearly view a Remain vote as the best outcome, so expect the Pound to solidify its position should this occur. I have no doubt that we will see heavy GBP losses should the out vote gain enough support to gain victory. I do not like to gamble when it comes to large sums of money and therefore I would be looking to protect any Sterling positions ahead of tomorrow’s results.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Are you worried about the results of the Referendum?

Are you concerned with the outcome of the EU Referendum? Although the latest polls suggest the remain have taken the lead and the bookmakers have their odds on a remain at 70%, polls are not always right and the same can ring true for the bookmakers. The Pound continues to climb which to me signals investor confidence, but could they be wrong?

Yes, it is true, the bookmakers had it right about the Scottish Referendum, but during the General election last year they tightened their odds of a Conservative victory towards the end.

The market, despite heavy confidence in a remain vote, have not always got it right either, we only need to look at the recession to realise that unexpected events do occur.

But what do we actually know so far? The polls are tight, as of 14:00, remain appear to be ahead by 2 points which from a statistical perspective, is marginal.

So if you’re worried about the outcome tomorrow, take a look at current GBPAUD exchange rates and decide whether now could be a good opportunity to buy Aussie Dollars.

GBPAUD is trading at 1.96, and has been flirting with the 2.0 mark during the run up to the EU Referendum, prior to last year and during the early stages of the current year, rates have not been this attractive since 2009.

In the event of a Brexit, GBPAUD rates could fall into the 1.80’s again, prior to April of this year, rates were not this low since the beginning of January 2015.

If you’re seriously considering a currency exchange and have concerns about the outcome of today’s Referendum, email rdl@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you further.

EU Referendum – Why selling the Aussie Dollar now is a good idea

Today’s EU Referendum is turning out to be a volatile period for AUDGBP exchange rates. In just the last 24 hour’s rates have moved over 1 cent and in the last 4 hours alone, rates have fallen half a cent.

It’s becoming clearer that the market is confident in a remain vote, the latest polls suggest the status quo and on top of this, bookmakers have put the odds of a Brexit at 30%.

So what can we learn from this? The bookmakers got it right on the Scottish Referendum, similarly in the case of last year’s General election. Traders are piling into the Pound, if there was any uncertainty of a Brexit from their perspective, they wouldn’t be gambling with potentially billions of Pounds.

If you are an Aussie Dollar Seller, current levels are still attractive as in the event of a Brexit, levels below 0.50 perhaps mid 0.40’s could be tested which could put the pair at a 6-9-month low.

There is very little economic data due to be released for the Dollar in the next 7 days and with the RBA potentially signalling further Interest rate cuts if inflation does not improve, lower exchange rate levels could be on the cards for an extended period.

As it stands in my view, all signs point towards an Aussie Dollar sell, get in touch with me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any requirements and I will be more than happy to assist you.

Polling day is here – GBP/AUD set for greater volatility than normal due to the Referendum (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD is already all over the place this morning, recording some of the largest movements on Sterling’s currency pairings. And, noticeably, this movement is currently negative.

There will be a number of factors affecting the value of the Pound today, all based around expectations surrounding the Referendum. Will confidence in the UK financial markets fall? Will the current downpours favour the more steadfast leave voters? Will indications from privately conducted exit polls suggest favour for one camp or the other?

Entering into the day polls were at a dead-heat. After the May election polls haven’t had the same level of trust as they have in the past, so even if there was a strong favouring for one camp over the other, markets may not necessarily price this into the Pound.

The downside risk for a Leave vote far outweighs the gains if we decide to stay for anyone considering buying foreign currency. HSBC and Goldman Sachs predict a 20% fall in the value of the Pound should a leave vote win out, meaning that soon we could be closer to 1.6 than 2.0 on GBP/AUD. Should we stay I fully expect a rise on Pound value, but certainly not to the same degree, a confirmation of the status quo cannot equate to radical change.

It is a flip of the coin at this point, moving forward it entirely depends on the risk appetite of the individual entering the marketplace.

The sensible option for anyone considering buying Australian Dollars over the next few months would be to get a rate secured. Rates are still 16 cents higher than their lowest levels in April when the Leave Camp had their greatest lead.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 00 44 1494 725 353 and simply ask my reception team to be put through to Joshua to receive a quote on your transfer and to discuss the options open to you limit your exposure over the near unprecedented volatility expected today.

Or feel free to email me with a short description of your requirement and the best number to reach you on in order to discuss your requirement in more detail. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How a Brexit could impact the Australian Dollar (Daniel Wright)

The results of the EU Referendum will be witnessed at 2pm on Friday in Australia, and with so much uncertainty over which way the results will swing, the markets are likely to get incredibly volatile from tomorrow.

As it stands, GBPAUD exchange rates are still attractive at 1.96 and in the event the UK remain within the EU, rates above 2.0 will likely be witnessed.

To the contrary, a Leave vote will signal pair weakness, but this could be the start of much bigger problems for the Australian economy.

The timing of the EU Referendum could not have come at a worse time, problems in China continue to dominate economic news and the FED’s decision to keep Interest rates on hold due to the Referendum are just small signs of things to come.

The global markets are vulnerable, developed countries like the US and UK are struggling to generate growth despite record low Interest rates, this was witnessed recently when the RBA cut Interest rates to a record low of 1.75%, the EU remain in negative Interest rate territory.

A Brexit, therefore, could cause economic turmoil, and where do Investors move their money when times are tough? Into safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar and away from commodity currencies.

Exports have been one of Australia’s key drivers of economic growth and a shaky global economy could have ramifications for employment and overall growth. It’s worth mentioning that during the recession of 2008 commodity prices sank, a similar scenario to the recession of 2008 would likely be negative for all commodity currencies.

Australia also rely on British tourism, 700,000 British tourists visited last year, a Brexit could cause a decline in British tourism and a fall in GDP.

A Brexit will have implications for the global market and AUD won’t be resilient to this major event. It’s unlikely that the RBA will further cut Interest rates until the full impact of a Brexit was observed.

If you are in the middle of buying or selling a property overseas or if your business has upcoming requirements then you need to make sure you have a proactive broker on your side. There are options available to you including limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts, all of these can help you minimise your currency risk in this difficult market.

We here at Australian Dollar Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service. If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

How should I time my trade in view of a possible “Brexit”? (Daniel Charles Johnson)

With voting due to start tomorrow the referendum is still too tight to call. The Telegraph have combined the latest six polls and it came in a dead heat at 50/50. The remain camp gained some momentum of late due to the tragic death of MP Joe Cox and Faraj’s tasteless immigration poster. Sterling strengthened against the majority of major currencies as a result.

Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been damning. Christine Lagarde the Head of the IMF stated a UK exit from the EU would be “pretty bad to very,very bad”. This was followed up by Finland’s Finance Minister Alexander Stubb, who said a Brexit could be “Europe’s Lehman Brothers”.

GBP/AUD currently sits in the 1.95s. If the UK remain in the EU expect 2.05 +. If the UK to leave I would expect around 1.80. The wise move for those with a currency requirement at present would be to hedge. To have all your eggs in one basket is a risky strategy. It is literally like walking up to a roulette wheel and putting your whole trade value on red or black.

If you do have currency trade and are looking to move pre-referendum, but do not have all the funds available it is possible to book a forward contract. A forward contract is essentially buy now, pay later. It requires a 15% deposit, but is proving very popular during such a volatile period.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I will be your eyes and ears in the market keeping you up to date with any spikes or troughs. I am prepared to come up with an individual trading strategy and I am confident in beating any competitors rate of exchange. As an indication we can beat the majority of high street bank’s rates of exchange by 2-5%. Please do get in touch for a no obligation quote by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

What next for GBPAUD? (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBPAUD within the last 2 months has been up and down like a roller-coaster and has fluctuated over 20 cents!

The EU referendum has been the main talking point and opinion polls have dictated the strength of the pound. If the polls are edging towards a remain vote the pound has strengthened, where as a leave vote weakens the pound. Recent polls are suggesting the UK will remain part of the EU and that’s why the pound has made over 2 and 1/2 cents against the Australian Dollar.

As for the Australian economy inflation plummeted 3 months ago which led to an interest rate cut which significantly weakened the Australian Dollar. However the latest minutes released early this morning suggested no further cuts are on the horizon, which is good news for the Australian economy.

Depending on the outcome of Thursdays nights decision I believe GBPAUD will either by in the 1.70s or 2s.

If you are buying or selling Australian Dollars in the foreseeable future I can help. The company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than high street banks and other brokerages.

I specialise in the property market, therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and quite want to compare exchange rates, email me with the amounts and the reference QUOTE and I will respond with our live buy price **