May’s future in doubt (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

Sterling has suffered of late due to the current situation on Brexit, Brexit being one of the key drivers on GBP/AUD. We recently saw a spike up to 1.88 following what was deemed to be positive news on Brexit. May’s talks with Corbyn over a deal that could be mutually acceptable from both Labour and the Conservatives caused the Spike. I believed the gains for Sterling would be short lived as I had little faith the talks between May and Corbyn would result in a deal that would pass through the House of Commons. This proved to be true.

I believe Sterling could be in for further losses as if Farage’s becomes the UK’s representative in the bloc, it would show a huge power shift away for m the usual top contenders, creating further political uncertainty. Many believe if he does prove to be  successful this could be the final nail in the coffin for May and she will be forced to step down, she has proved extremely resilient up to this point however.

May made a speech yesterday and she stated the House of Commons vote on her deal may now be delayed from the first week of June. This was not taken well and has seen her unpopularity grow. The thoughts in many of the voters minds is no doubt that if her deal fails to be passed she will resign.

I think the vote is destined to fail when it takes place, this may be already factored into GBP/AUD to some extent as the market moves on rumour as well as fact, but I think this could also cause the Pound to lose value. The usual market reaction if a leader of a Country steps down or is ousted is that the currency in question would weaken, however in this situation we could see the opposite as anew Tory party leader may be deemed to have a better a chance of sorting out this Brexit mess.

The Aussie has had it’s own trouble, Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s goods and services and any decline in Chinese growth will impact the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar. The escalation in the US/China trade war is causing investors to move away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD for safe haven investments.

There is also the probability of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month, so despite the potential for further Sterling gains it may be wise to move before the decision if you are selling the Aussie.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

Pound vs Australian Dollar rates improve after Theresa May’s speech

The Pound hit 1.86 against the Australian Dollar yesterday afternoon after what has been a very busy week so far for GBPAUD exchange rates.

The election over the weekend was won by the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison who will remain in power for a full term.

He originally replaced the previous leader back in August so a new full term has helped to settle the Australian economy.

This is turn helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound over the weekend but since then the Pound has fought back following Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday afternoon.

Theresa May has warned MPs that they have ‘one last chance’ to deliver Brexit and she is anxious to get this new deal backed in the House of Commons in early June.

However, although some amendments have been made I cannot see this deal getting accepted which will trigger her in to announcing her resignation timeline.

Theresa May has also suggested that it may even mean that Brexit could even be cancelled. The Prime Minister also hinted that a second referendum may be held if there is enough appetite in parliament for it to take place.

All this news has helped the Pound to recover against a number of different currencies and good news for anyone looking to exchange Pounds into Australian Dollars.

However, later this week we also have the European elections due and this could cause some uncertainty for the Pound so if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of this current spike.

If you would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident about saving you money as well as helping you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Shock Election Win for Australian Coalition Party & Breakdown in Cross-Party Brexit Talks Dominate the Headlines (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has found some welcome support against the AUD over the past 24 hours, helping to curb any further losses after last week’s downturn.

Investors sold off their GBP positions in haste following a breakdown in cross-party Brexit talks. With both the Conservatives and Labour laying the blame for the breakdown at each other’s feet, investors’ confidence in the UK governments ability to achieve Brexit via a smooth transition, has quickly evaporated.

This negative feeling transpired and caused Sterling to lose over three cents in value against its Australian counterpart, with the Pound falling below 1.84 towards the end of last week.

Whilst the current outlook regarding the UK’s Brexit is still cloaked in uncertainty, the Pound has at least found a level of support during the early party of the trading week. GBP moved back above 1.85 overnight at its high but fell again as the results of the Australian election were finalised.

The very unexpected result was confirmed, and the expected Labour did not materialise. This went against the vast majority of the opinion polls, which for almost two years prior to the general elections, put the Labour party ahead of the more conservative Coalition, led by the now Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

How the new government’s policies will affect the Australian economy will be realised over time but for now the markets have taken a cautious approach to the new regime and with the Brexit undertone likely to continue to drive market sentiment and much of Sterling’s value, it may be the at the Pound struggles to make any sustainable inroads back towards and over 1.90 against the AUD in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

AUD to GBP Strength after Australian Election (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower following the Australian election result which has helped boost the Aussie dollar. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been re-elected despite being behind in the polls in the campaign. This campaign was won on economic management, tax cuts and the pledge to return to a budget surplus.

There is a good short term opportunity for those looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds with rates for AUD GBP having moved to 1.84 for the pair. Whether the Australian dollar will continue to strengthen remains to be seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia is potentially looking to cut interest rates in the months ahead and this could see Australian dollar weakness. This will be the first time the central bank will have changed rates since 2016 and could see a big movement in the Australian dollar.

UK Politics are also about to create volatility for GBP vs AUD with the European elections to be held this Friday. There is a growing expectation that the two major political parties will be punished at these elections like never seen before and could help redirect the debate on Brexit. A big shift to the newly formed Brexit Party under Nigel Farage will likely reinforce the Leave vote and put pressure on politicians to deliver on Brexit and potentially with a cleaner break.

A drop in the price of sterling may be seen if the electorate vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers. Following this the fourth and final meaningful vote on the current withdrawal agreement will be held week commencing 3rd June. If the Prime Minister is unable to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons then the options on Brexit are either no deal or revoke Article 50 altogether. Either of these outcome would likely see a major volatility for sterling exchange rates and the GBP to AUD pair.

The Australian dollar may be influenced by a speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. The US Fed have changed tact on the rate cycle having paused on any further rate hikes. The Fed has indicated that it would like to start to keep the markets guessing as the Fed has done historically and so any sudden shift could impact both the US and Australian dollars. Changes in the US have direct knock on effect on the Aussie dollar as the divergence between the two economies is calculated by investors.

For more information on the Australian dollar and guidance in making transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian election to set the tone for Pound vs Australian Dollar rates

Australian Election this weekend

We are now just days away from the next Australian election due to be held this weekend.  According to a number of polls the voting is very close but current Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be the preferred person to continue to lead the country.

There have been a number of elections during the last ten years and this has often caused the Australian Dollar to suffer as a result owing to the uncertainty during an election campaign.

At the moment the voting appears to be very close with hours to go before the polling stations close.

Scott Morrison is the current Prime Minister and if he stays he will have a long term in power owing to a recent change in legislation.

However, at the time of writing Nine’s exit poll has predicted that Bill Shorten will win with a a 2.4% swing towards the Labor party.

If Labor do win then this could have a big impact on the Australian economy.

In previous weeks a number of leading businessmen have spoken out against a Labor government as they believe this could lead to negatively impact upon the Australian economy.

With 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Australian Senate expect to see a lot of volatility for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar over the next few days.

Therefore, it will be very important to see who wins over the next day as this could have a big impact on the value for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar. Therefore, if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars then pay close attention to this weekend’s election news.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rates before EU Elections (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is still finding support with rates sitting at 1.8550 for the GBP vs AUD pair despite the ongoing Brexit uncertainty in the UK. The Australian dollar has come under pressure over the last week following the decision by Donald Trump to deliver on promises made to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. China has since retaliated by imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of American imports.

There is hope that some agreement between the leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can still be reached and it should be highlighted that the tariffs won’t actually take effect until the Chinese goods that shipped last Friday actually reach American soil. The next meeting between the US and China will take place at the G20 summit in Japan and the markets will be awaiting any developments on trade.

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to these trade developments as a commodity currency and the fact that Australia is such a large export market for China. A good trade deal would be very welcome news for the Australian dollar although there is still every chance that the trade war could escalate and turn in to a global trade war, something that would be negative for Australian dollar exchange rates.

In the UK it has been announced that there will be a fourth and final vote in parliament to try and push through the existing deal on Brexit. Cross party talks continue but with a lack of agreement and the difficulty in finding enough support in the House of Commons it seems unlikely the deal will be voted through.

The EU elections next Friday could be a very good indicator of what is to come and those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this event. A major shift away from the two major political parties in the UK towards the Liberal Democrats and the newly formed Brexit Party could see a major market reaction for GBP to AUD. If there is a huge movement towards the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage then GBP AUD could fall lower.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar forecast – Increased volatility set to continue…

The Aussie dollar is being pulled in many different directions at present, as the market is encouraged to consider and take onboard many factors in its assessment of the value of the currency. Domestic economic and political concerns are high ahead of the Australian election this weekend, as are global concerns over trade wars and the impact on the Chinese economy. The Aussie dollar is softer this May under the pressure of such events, and I think may well lose further ground.

The elections this weekend could well see the Labour Party winning the election as their messages on climate change and improving health and education spending appear to hit the right notes with voters. This might well see the Australian dollar weaker after the weekend, since it is expected the increase in spending, might lead to worse economic performance and increase pressure on the Australian central bank, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), to cut interest rates.

Looking forward, investors with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might wish to be making some plans ahead of the election this weekend to try and protect or manage their position. You can email myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about this if you wish.

Will the Australian dollar weaken further?

Another concern for me would be the escalating trade wars which so far has seen the US and China, both raise tariffs on each other’s good. Trump has now levied 25% tariffs on US$200 bn worth of Chinese goods, whilst China has retaliated with between 5-25% tariffs on US$60bn worth of goods.

This just adds to the uncertain picture ahead for the global economy and I would expect will lead to a weaker AUD. Whilst the immediate sell off on stock markets and currencies seen earlier this week has been stemmed, with such investments staging a small comeback yesterday, the longer term outlook does not appear rosy.

The Australian dollar is very much supported by a strong global economy, in particular by China and its demand for raw materials. The increased uncertainty globally has seen the Australian economy struggle with inflation at a 16-year low, thereby putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates.

May is presenting much potential for the Australian dollar to come under some pressure, clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might benefit from a quick review with us to discuss the best strategy moving forward. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss more about what might suit you best in this market.

Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian Dollar Weakness as US China Trade War Escalates (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has rallied higher following the latest developments over the US China trade war. Rates for GBP to AUD are now sitting just below 1.87 presenting a good opportunity for buying Australian dollars. The Australian dollar has come under pressure after US President Donald Trump has delivered on his promise to impose tariffs of 25% on $200 billion of Chinese exports.

The Australian dollar is sensitive to the US / China trade war as Australia have a heavy reliance on China for trade. If the trade war continues or escalates further then the Australian dollar could see further weakness. China has already retaliated having made the decision to hike tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of American goods. The fear is that Donald Trump could impose tariffs on all Chinese goods which could bode badly for the Australian dollar.

Brexit meanwhile remains a major driver for GBP vs AUD and the European elections to held 23rd May could see much volatility for the currency pair. British voters are expected to punish the two main parties in a way that has never been seen before. A huge shift to the Brexit party could help change the direction of Brexit. A cleaner break between Britain and the EU could start to look more likely although this would likely be seen as negative for the pound as the uncertainty attributed with a no deal Brexit would return. If however there is a shift to Remain supporting parties then the opposite is true and the pound could rally although this seems less likely looking at the current polls. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around these EU elections as they represents a major event and could result in high volatility.

Australians are also set for their general election to be held at the end of this week which could see further volatility for the Australian dollar. New rules however will insist that the next Prime Minister will serve a full term after so many changes in the top job in recent Australian history. Elections can always result in market volatility but if anything having the confidence for a longer term bringing some stability and continuity in governance could be seen as positive for the dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling starts the week strongly with GBP/AUD trading north of 1.86, will GBP/AUD test it’s annual highs again soon?

The Pound has begun the week on the front foot this morning, with GBP exchange rates generally up across the board of major currency pairs. GBP/AUD is up by over half a percent, with the pair now trading around the 1.8650 level which is around 2-cents from the best levels of the past year.

There could be further price changes this week, especially towards the end of the week as Australians will be going to the polls to vote on the Australian Federal election. There has been a lack on continued leadership down under as many of our readers that follow Australian politics will be aware of. Over the past 12-years there have been 6 different prime ministers and the current leader, Scott Morrison of the Liberal-National coalition is currently polled in 2nd place. Another change of leadership could cause weakness for the Aussie Dollar, as Morrison has only been in power since August of last year so another change could increase uncertainty for the Australian economy moving forward.

There will also be inflation data released out of Australia towards the end of the week, and a weak reading could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates at their next opportunity, so again this is another potential market mover.

The main influence on the Pound’s value is likely to be the cross party Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour leaders. We’ve seen updates on the talks move GBP exchange rates in both directions recently, so it’s worth being aware of if you’re planning on making a GBP transfer soon.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP to AUD Rates after RBA Statement (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower this morning with rates sitting just below 1.86 for the GBP vs AUD pair. Australia are preparing for a general election to be held 18th May to elect the next Prime Minister. Australia has seen an interesting time in its recent political history with no single leader serving a full term since 2007. In fact this will be the seventh leadership challenge in 12 years although this time round under new rules the Prime Minister will serve a full term which could bode well for the Australian dollar if some political certainty is established.

Such certainty could come at the right time for the Australian economy which is struggling to perform at the moment with calls by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that it may be cutting interest rates again. The RBA released its Monetary Policy Statement after last Tuesday’s interest rate decision which saw the decision to hold rates at 1.5%. The statement has highlighted that it would consider cutting interest rates if unemployment remained high whilst also citing the weak housing market again as reason to downgrade the growth forecasts. It follows a decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week to cut interest rates to record lows and whilst the two countries are independent the move may persuade the RBA to follow suit.

For GBP to AUD exchange rates the pound is still largely being driven by Brexit which remains deadlocked in the British parliament. Cross party talks between the Labour and Conservative parties have hit a roadblock with leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn stating that it is difficult negotiating with a “disintegrating government”. The next focus is the European elections being held 23rd May and could see considerable market movement for GBP AUD.

The polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the lead and if the reports are correct that there is a major shift away from the two main political parties then this could have a major impact on sterling exchange rates. A huge win for Nigel Farage could see sterling weakness with a sudden drop for GBP AUD. Those with pending GBP to AUD requirement would be wise to plan around this major event.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk