Will the Pound continue to improve against the Australian Dollar?

Sterling is now trading close to its best level against the Australian Dollar in almost two years as the Australian economy continues to shows signs of a struggle.

Australian inflation data is released on Tuesday and this could provide us with evidence of what the RBA may need to do in terms of monetary policy in the near future.

The RBA is under pressure at the moment as it appears as though the country is split between the east and the west with the western economy showing signs of a real slowdown compared to what is happening in both Sydney and Melbourne.

With the western part of the country so entrenched in the mining industry any slowdown in China will often cause the Australian Dollar to weaken and this is in part one of the reasons for the recent period of Australian Dollar weakness.

The Australian Dollar has also been affected by the decision made in the US to continue in their course of raising interest rates. In previous years Australia has had one of the highest interest rate yields available in the developed world.

However, the US has now overtaken them and this has caused global investors to move their money away from Australia and this has seen Sterling break past 1.83 during the course of this week providing some excellent opportunities to send money down under.

With the Bank of England due to meet on 10th May I think there is a strong chance of a rate hike coming in the UK as well and this could see further strength for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar. Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars to buy Pounds it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

For further information about how to save money when exchanging Australian Dollars and if you’d like to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian inflation key to the next move for Australian Dollar exchange rates

The Australian Dollar has had a mixed week, the RBA meeting minutes from the last RBA interest rate decision suggested that we still cannot see any movement for interest rates in sight and both Chinese growth figures and Australian unemployment were fairly solid.

We have not seen a huge amount of volatility for the Australian Dollar off the back of these data sets, and all eyes now will look towards Australian inflation figures which are due out on Tuesday.

Inflation is expected to have got a little higher in Tuesday’s figures and this may lead to a little improvement for the Australian Dollar early in the week, in my opinion though any improvements in the Australian Dollar may be short lived, I still feel that we are set for a period of weakness for Australian Dollar exchange rates.

As I have mentioned in previous posts there are various reasons for this, inclusive of interest rates rising in other economies around the world, Australian economic data not being great, falling commodity prices and global risk sentiment dropping due to political issues and trade wars. The Australian Dollar is classed as a riskier currency so when global tensions are high you tend to see the Australian Dollar lose ground against most major currencies.

Interest rates are vital to the performance of a currency too as a higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors, with areas such as the U.S now raising rates to a level above Australian interest rates we are seeing qwuite a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making the Australian Dollar weaker and cheaper to buy.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance with achieving the best rate and the timing of it all too then you are moire than welcome to contact me directly and I would be more than happy to help you personally. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you to discuss the options available to you.

Sterling suffers against AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Poor inflation and poor Retail Sales data could push back BOE rate hike

We have seen very positive news from the UK of late. We have had UK unemployment come in at a 43yr low, a rise in average wage growth and previous retail sales figures came in at 0.8%, well above the expected 0.4%.

We have also recently had news that a Brexit transitional deal has all but been agreed, with the UK having access to the single market until full exit.

GBP/AUD moved as high as the 1.84s. We have seen the Pound take losses over the last few days however. It first took a hit following a fall in inflation pushing away the probability of a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation has now fallen below average wage growth which some may deem as positive, but if people are making more money and not spending it, it does not bode well for the UK economy.

Yesterday there was a sharp fall in retail sales. There was predicted to be a drop from 0.8% to – 0.5%, but they landed at a shocking – 1.2%. The markets remained muted, which surprised me as this surely brings into question a rate hike in May. There was little Sterling weakness.

It was a dovish speech from the Head of the BOE, Mark Carney to convince investors the hike could be put off until later in the year. The pound weakened as a result.

Despite this I still feel the Aussie is fragile. With no hikes planned by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year and the US dollar proving to be far more attractive to investors due to higher returns and safe haven status I am not convinced we will see GBP/AUD drop below 1.81. If I was an Australian Dollar seller buying the pound I would take advantage of current levels. Aussie Buyers aim for the 1.84s, 1.85 is proving to be a firm resistance point.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

Could the Pound continue its recent strong run vs the Australian Dollar?

Although the Pound dipped yesterday vs the Australian Dollar after UK inflation came out slightly lower than expected the Pound has risen once against vs the AUD during today’s trading session.

UK inflation is a key factor in determining when the Bank of England may look at raising interest rates and the chances are very high that a rate hike may occur when the central bank meet again on 10th May.

Indeed, according to some reports the chances are as high as 85% of an interest rate hike.

The Pound has made a lot of gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few months and although we saw a brief fall earlier this week I think the negative movement will be relatively short lived.

With the US having increased rates recently the US interest rates now have a higher yield than having money in Australia and this is one of the reasons why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently particularly vs the Pound.

On Tuesday, Australia releases its latest inflation data and with the RBA having announced recently that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future the data release could cause a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates.

On Wednesday Australia celebrates ANZAC day so expect the markets to remain quite midweek so if you’re happy with rates are on Wednesday that may be the day to make your move.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

AUD Forecast – AUD Fights Back After Recent Losses (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling came under pressure against the AUD yesterday, following the release of the latest UK inflation data.

GBP/AUD rates have fallen back towards 1.82, a dip of almost 4 cents from last week’s high.

Inflation fell to 2.5%, which was under the markets predicted market figure of 2.7%. Whilst this could be viewed as a positive in the sense that it is creeping back towards the government’s target level of 2%, it has also dampened expectations of a prospective interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE).

This potential rate hike had most likely  been factored in to Sterling’s value, at least to some extent by investors, as such yesterday’s data has dampened the markets expectation and as investors have sold off their Sterling positions.

Looking at the AUD and it had started to find support against the Pound around 1.85, with the realignment welcomed by any clients looking to sell AUD.

One of the main reasons the AUD has struggled of late, is due to pressure on the global markets. Generally, when there is an upturn in global growth currencies such as the AUD will prosper as investors look towards riskier assets, with generally higher interest returns. When the global markets are under pressure, investors will move their funds away from these currencies and back into safer havens such as the USD or CHF.

President Donald Trump’s recent trade tariffs are  putting a huge strain on commodity based currencies such as the AUD, which is why clients holding AUD may wish to take advantage of the current spike and remove any market risk.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What can we expect in the future from GBPAUD exchange rates?

GBPAUD exchange rates have been improving lately reaching some of the best rates to buy Australian dollars with pounds since the Referendum in June 2016. This is very good news for any clients looking to make an international transfer in the future as the last few months have generally been difficult for the pound. The good news may well continue further but with plenty of potential for the pound to struggle clients buying Australian dollars with pounds should I believe be thinking very carefully about what they are aiming for.

The Australian dollar has weakened as a consequence of a much stronger US dollar which is seeing investors transfer their holdings in Australian dollars through to the US dollar. With higher base interest rates than Australia the US dollar has become a much more attractive currency to hold and the previous arguments for holding onto the Australian dollar diminish.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is likely to be very much on course to be raising interest rates down the line but with the UK and also the US likely to be raising interest rates before the RBA, the prospect for the Aussie to weaken further seems high. Expectations for the GBPAUD rate are in my opinion that it will rise further so if you are looking for any transfers in the future and wish for updates on what is likely to happen, please contact myself, Jonathan Watson, directly.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information and thank you for getting in touch.

Best Rates for Buying Australian Dollars – GBP AUD 1.84 (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under pressure as events on the global stage continue to drive the dollar lower. The uncertainty over the potential trade war between the US and China has implications for the Australian dollar too. China is Australia’s largest export market so any slowdown in economic growth in China results in an immediate reduction to Australian exports. The other issue that stems from this is that a global trade war would potentially see a slowdown in economic growth causing some currencies to include the commodity currencies to weaken of which the Australian dollar is one of them.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting above 1.84 which has presented a great opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound has been boosted considerably of late on the back of a brighter outlook on Brexit and the prospect of an imminent interest rate increase in the UK. The Bank of England next meet in May and there is a high chance that the central bank will raise interest rates. This seems particularly likely now that wage growth numbers released yesterday increased for the first time in a year. The Bank of England have been paying very close attention to this data set and the boost is proving very positive for sterling.

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see an improvement assuming the rhetoric on trade tariffs begins to die down. The US is currently renegotiating the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico. You may ask what this has to do with the Australian dollar – In my view any progress on this agreement could signal a turning point for US President Donald Trump with new terms agreed and may start to calm those nerves in the financial markets. As such the Australian dollar could be a beneficiary on any positive developments in the world arena.

To discuss your own requirement and how these events have a direct impact on personal currency transfers then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar rate trading at annual high, will the pair now climb higher? (Joseph Wright)

The exchange rate for changing Pounds into Aussie Dollars has traded within half-a-cent from its annual high today, as the almost hit 1.85 again during today’s trading session.

As many of our regular readers will be aware, sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved quite considerably recently after roughly a month ago the UK and EU Brexit negotiators came to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. This was a topic that limited the Pound’s value prior tot he agreement, as there were concerns that there would be a Hard Brexit which most likely would’ve resulted in a weaker Pound due to the shock to the UK economy.

Now that there is likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month, sentiment is improving as the UK economy is showing signs of picking up, even if the Brexit has slowed the economy somewhat.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb from its current levels as I think AUD will continue to lose value throughout the year. Now that the Fed Reserve has begun hiking interest rates in the US, AUD is likely to lose some of its attractiveness as it will no longer be offering one of the highest interest rates within the developed world. At the same time trade tensions between the US and China are likely to limit upside for AUD in my opinion.

There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates to 1.75% at the end of this year, although up until this stage the RBA has been skeptical due to the overheating property market down under, particularly on the East coast. With the RBA being weary of the effects this could have on the Australian economy, I think they will leave it late before making an amendment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Could GBPAUD continue towards 1.90?

Since the start of the year GBPAUD exchange rates have improved by over 10 cents, and clients converting £200,000 into Australian dollars are now achieving an additional 25,ooo dollars. 

The Australian dollar continues to struggle on due to the over inflated housing market which is a reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. Furthermore ‘trade wars’ between the US and China (Australia main trading partner), is causing investors to move away from risky commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The pound has had a good run of late due to the UK securing a transitional deal and the Bank of England hinting that an interest rate hike is likely for June. Today the UK will release their latest average earnings numbers and on Thursday their latest inflation numbers. The consensus is for average earnings to outpace inflation for the first time in many years.

If this is the case, an interest rate hike looks almost certain and therefore I expect the pound may rise slightly against the Australian dollar. However I expect that the market has already priced in the interest rate hike in May, therefore I don’t see the pound making substantial gains.

Looking further ahead I don’t believe it’s all smiles for Australian dollar buyers. The most important element of Brexit is to be decided which is the trade talks. Over the last 18 months we have seen the pound come under pressure when a fresh round of Brexit talks begin. If you need to purchase Australian dollars short to medium term, this week could provide the best opportunity for some time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.