Further losses for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar expected (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some limited gains vs the Australian Dollar recently but ultimately is struggling to break much higher.

There are a number of different reasons as to why the Australian Dollar is performing so well against the Pound at the moment and I think we’ll see GBPAUD rates fall below 1.60 in the near future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made it clear that there will be no interest rate change for the time being and as interest rates are so high compared to any other leading economy we are continuing to see money invested in Australia.

Commodities have also been improving other the last year with the value of iron ore rising by over 50% in that same time. With iron ore such a huge part of the economy this has also kept the AUD strong against Sterling.

The Pound is also struggling against most major currencies and with next month due to see the triggering of Article 50 we could be in for further uncertainty ahead and a loss of confidence for Sterling.

Indeed, it is not yet clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and the lack of clarity is causing problems for the Pound.

The UK economy has actually been performing relatively well but recently we have seen two sets of data that should cause real concern. UK Average Earnings have started to fall and with inflation on the rise this means the UK consumer will ultimately have less money to spend and this was clearly demonstrated with the release of UK retail sales for January which saw the lowest level in three years.

On Wednesday we see the release of Chinese manufacturing data and Australia’s commodity index for February and if both come out well I think we’ll see the Pound fall against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like more information or for a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then do not hesitate to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of offering you competitive rates as well as help with the timing of your transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

What next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

Most analysts are closely watching the GBPAUD exchange rate signs that the recent trend is likely to continue. GBPAUD has been on a slide since the beginning of the year as investors fears over the Brexit triggered sterling losses, whilst the pound has recovered since then the Aussie has too making headway against many currencies. A higher interest rate and rising commodity prices are all portraying an economy that is likely to benefit further from global conditions. If you need to buy Australian dollars with pounds taking advantage of the recent improvements is probably a good bet since the outlook looks like it may favour the Aussie over the pound.

Most investors have been carefully tracking the market looking for clues as to what might happen next for GBPAUD, having enjoyed levels above 1.70 all was not looking too bad. The recent confirmation that the RBA will not be looking at further interest rate cuts has however piled the pressure on the rate pushing GBPAUD back towards 1.60 as investors prefer to throw their funds behind the much higher yielding Aussie versus the pound. Sterling is likely to suffer as investors hesitate ahead of the Article 50 decisions next month. Most clients are looking for improvements if they have to buy Australian dollars with pounds but with the likelihood of GBPAUD slipping, I would not be getting overly excited.

Next week is an important one for the rates as we have a whole new host of economic data to be released which will more than likely lead to volatility across the board. GBPAUD seems bound to remain in a range of 1.60-1.63 with a real downside risk to rates falling below 1.60 over the course of March. We warned you last year when we were at 1.70 the rate was likely to deteriorate and I would like to gently warn clients buying AUD now that there remains a strong chance the Aussie will remain very strong against the pound.

If you have a transfer to consider please feel free to speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk about the latest forecast and the best rates of exchange.

 

Selling Australian Dollars in Brexit Run Up (James Lovick)

The pound remains on the back foot against the Australian dollar with rates close to a one month low for this pair. GBP AUD is now sitting at 1.62 and its future direction is less clear.
The pound has been supported against a number of currencies despite approaching the month of March when UK Prime Minister Theresa May has made clear Article 50 will be invoked to give formal notice that Britain will be leaving the European Union.

The Australian dollar however remains in a strong position with the rise in the price of oil and other commodities which is seeing this currency remain buoyant.
Things could be about to change in March though as we approach the next US Fed meeting where there is a strong chance that interest rates will be hiked by 0.25%. An increase from 0.75% to 1% will really highlight that the Fed mean business especially considering that there are likely to be another two hikes later this year. The effect of this is likely to see the Aussie weaken as funds leave the riskier currency and return to the safety of the US dollar where interest rates are going up rather than down.

The month of March looks set to be particularly interesting for GBP AUD with Brexit developments and any changes from the Fed. Those clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars in these coming weeks would be wise to look for a suitable spike in this volatile period.

UK data is light as we end the week although Purchasing Managers Index data from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors.,

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Struggling to Make Significant Impact Against the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates are marooned under 1.65 at present, with the Pound struggling to make any sustained impact against the AUD.

Every time Sterling takes a step forward, another headline or rumour seems to sap investor confidence and the we see it snap back.

The currency markets continue to brace themselves this week for for further developments regarding the UK’s upcoming Brexit, with members of the House of Lords discussing the bill before it heads back to the House of Commons for final approval. Although there is likely to be little resistance to the result of June’s referendum, any amendments could cause a delay in the triggering of Article 50.

With UK Prime Minister Theresa May sticking stringently to her March deadline, any delay to this timeline would likely cause further uncertainty amongst investors and the Pound could come under further pressure against the AUD and a move back under 1.60 is not out of the question.

The final decision by Parliament is likely to have a significant impact on GBP/AUD exchange rates over the coming weeks, as investors risk appetite will be dependent on how smoothly the UK can facilitate its exit from the EU and what deals, if any, are left in place with our closest trade partners the EU.

The AUD has benefited from a run of positive economic data and the uncertainty surround the UK economy at present. However, due to the fact the AUD is a commodity based currency and as such relies heavily on its export trade, in particular the export of its raw materials to China, any global slowdown in this sector will hit their economy hard and the AUD would likely lose value as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates see drop this afternoon (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates have had a roller-coaster day on the markets, and much of this has been allocated to new speculation about the potential for a rate hike in the US.

Whilst it may seem alien to be discussing events in the US with the focus of this post being on GBP/AUD the connection is very visible.

The value of the Australian Dollar is linked to its demand, and one reason why the Dollar has enjoyed much better demand in the last year has been because of its relatively high interest rates compared to other currencies.

There is an obvious attraction for their 1.5% returns compares to the UK’s paltry 0.25%.

However, demand is based on the global picture of currency, rather than just between the Pound and the Australian Dollar. Much of the recent movement on the exchange rates has been governed by a potential interest rate hike in the US.

Given that this is a much more stable currency than the Australian Dollar, some investors have been selling off their Dollars there in favour of the US version.

However, the potential for an interest rate hike in the US is now coming into question. Deutsche Bank are now calling into question the potential for a hike in March, and as a result, we are currently seeing the Dollar gain strength.

Whether this will be proven or be another wrong call from the heights of the banking world are difficult to say. This is a market which can change rapidly, and as such it is imperative to be in a position to move quickly.

I am on hand in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as helping you to benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible – you can reach me on jjp@currencies.co.uk

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

 

GBP/AUD declines further, will the pair fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is dropping in value once again against the Aussie Dollar, which in contrast to how the currency is performing against other major currencies such as the Euro or the US Dollar.

After some less than impressive US economic data releases so far this week, demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar is on the rise as the likelihood of the US Fed Reserve Bank raising interest rates 3 times this year is likely to weaken if economic data out of the US doesn’t justify it.

Planning a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar can be difficult as it’s performance depends on a number of outside factors. There are fears the Aussie could weaken as the year goes on if the US is to raise interest rates a number of times this year as demand for the US Dollar will then increase, and investors would likely move deposits from the likes of the Aussie Dollar into the US Dollar.

The Australian economy is also reliant on key trading partners such as China so a slowdown in the Chinese economy could also weigh on AUD’s value but as it stands the currency is doing particularly well.

With the Brexit process to begin next month I think there’s a chance the Pound could come under additional pressure, and we may see the mid -market level between GBP/AUD fall below 1.60.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Huge week for Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)

So far during 2017 the Australian economy has been performing extremely well with gains vs the Pound of over 5% since the turn of the year.

Unemployment data down under is getting better and better and so far the Australian Dollar is one of the best performing currencies of 2017.

The Reserve Bank of Australia came out recently to confirm that they will be keeping interest rates on hold at 1.5% and with much higher interest rates than the rest of many western economies the Australian Dollar is often used in carry trading. This means borrowing in a low yielding currency and investing in a higher return and this is another reason why the currency is still strong against the Pound.

Tomorrow night however we could see a small shift in GBPAUD rates as the US Federal Reserve are due to release their latest set of minutes from their previous meeting.

If there is any hint that the Fed may have further appetite later this year to raise interest rates this could see a sell off for riskier commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar so we could see GBPAUD rates go in an upwards direction overnight.

Turning the focus back to what is happening in the UK we have the House of Lords discussions taking place at the moment with an answer due by tonight.

They are currently discussing the Brexit bill and the likelihood is that there will be no obvious challenge to what has been suggested previously and if this is the case we could see Sterling strength as it provides the government with more control to take things forward.

The other significant data release to concern anyone with a Sterling vs Australian Dollar requirement will come tomorrow with UK GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2016.  The expectation is for 2.2% year on year so anything different is likely to cause big movements.

Overall there is a lot of data due before the end of his month both politically and economically which will impact GBPAUD rates so it is important to stay up to date.

If you have a pending currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the industry since 2003 and I’m confident not only of being able to offer you savings but also help you with the timing.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Rally for Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates already taking place (Joshua Privett)

As my post on Sunday detailed, last week was a particular struggle for anyone planning a Pound to Australian Dollar currency exchange. However, the counter-rally I pointed to is already occurring, and, depending on the content of the RBA’s most recent meeting’s minutes to be released overnight, should continue.

Looking into recent trends on Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates since September last year bolsters this argument. 

These current four week lows to buy Australian Dollars using Sterling have been reached three times in the past five months. October saw heavy losses for the Pound when anxiety surrounding the Brexit seemed to be at its highest point, and after a strong recovery in November and December this was matched by some choice comments by Theresa May on a Sunday talk show which began another slide on the Pound.

This time around a hurtful combination of positive data for the Australian Dollar and multiple counts of negative news on the Sterling side of the pairing, with high inflation and poor retail sector data for the UK dominating headlines last week, causing GBP/AUD to career down to these current low-1.60 levels.

However, as the title of this posts suggests, there is still optimism for anyone with a planned Australian Dollar purchase in the coming weeks.

This resistance level of the low 1.60’s on GBP/AUD rates has continually been tested, however has struggled to break through. At this point in this current market it seems the incentive for traders to seize gains made and convert their Australian Dollars into Sterling is too high.

The sudden shift to higher demand for the Pound is why you see its value rise in a gradual fashion, with the scales re-balancing and GBP/AUD rising by a Cent so far today.

The onus for Australian Dollar sellers to move is now higher, so I strongly recommend that anyone with a Australian Dollar to Pound requirement over the next three to four weeks should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to seize what were multi-year highs on the pairing when the low 1.60’s were first reached in September.

Conversely, Pound to Australian Dollar buyers in the short to medium term do not seem to face the same pressure to move and I recommend contacting me to discuss a strategy on how best to approach the expected gains safely, as the landscape for this market can change quite dramatically whilst it is so politically charged.

I am on hand in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as helping you to benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates the largest loser this week (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates were attacked from multiple fronts this week, with surprise from China, and dismay from the UK igniting a rally against the Pound to four week lows against the Australian Dollar.

The Chinese news was a surprisingly positive look to the health of spending activity for the economy as a whole. Due to Australia’s close trading relationship with China, any news of high Chinese spending feeds expectations of rewards for Australian exporters. As a net exporter, the value of its currency immediatly soars off the back of any developments in this vein.

In this case, extremely positive news meant that confidence in the Australian economy soared in the very early hours of Tuesday morning in the UK, with the resulting boost on the Australian Dollar against the Pound driving GBP/AUD back down to 1.61.

Coupled with what has been a poor week for UK inflation and retail sales data, the Australian Dollar has been the currency of choice for many investors, and this means anyone holding Australian Dollars has enjoyed daily improvements to the value of their capital.

Where will Pound to Australian Dollar rates go from here?

A major point which analysts have continually highlighted towards the end of this week is that we have been at this point multiple times since September. In October rates were around this level, before a mammoth rally in November and December. Then a speedbump in January saw repeat movements to these levels, again gradually, before a much more rapid improvement back towards mid-to-high 1.60’s on GBP/AUD.

Since this has become such an insistent ‘resistance level’, the tendancy is for markets to shift their capital back into Sterling since there is low expectation for the Pound to continue to get cheaper. As such it may be wise for Australian Dollar to Pound exchangers to move quickly, to avoid being last to the party with rates as they are.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

UK Retail Sales data causes Sterling to fall against the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate fell once again after another poor release of UK Retail Sales which showed their worst performance for three years.

The data has fallen for the third month in a row and with inflation rising in the UK and average earnings showing a fall recently this could be a sign of things to come for the British economy.

This now makes it less likely that the Bank of England will look at raising interest rates this year.

UK Retail Sales were expected to see a growth of 1% but instead the data came out at -0.3% and this caused the Pound to fall vs the Australian Dollar.

Bank of England governor has previously predicted a slowdown and has been criticised for his negative outlook but his judgements appear to be getting more accurate recently.

Since Brexit GBPAUD exchange rates have dropped by over 15% and with Australia now having avoided recession for over 26 years it is difficult to see any gains for Sterling coming anytime soon.

With Article 50 also dominating the political landscape the Pound is remaining under real pressure against all major currencies and I think we could see Interbank levels drop below 1.60 during the course of this month.

Next week the UK releases its first estimate of GDP figures for the fourth quarter on Wednesday so if you need to buy or sell Australian Dollars then keep a close eye on what happens to exchange rates immediately following the release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked in the industry since 2003 I can also with my experience help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk