What a day for GBPAUD exchange rates! (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its been a roller coaster day for GBPAUD exchange rates. The high of the day was 2.0662 where as the low 2.0376. A well timed 400k AUD purchase would have cost you £2,700 less if you have bought at the high compared to the low.

It appear both sterling and the Australian Dollar are weakening at the moment and its hard to predict which currency is weakening more than the other!

The Chinese new year has not helped commodity currencies as we are seeing mass sell offs of commodities. which is weakening the Australian Dollar. Throughout the day investors sold off Australian Dollar positions and fled into bonds and other safe havens, such as the USD and Japanese Yen.

Its been another poor day for the pound. I put this down to repercussions of ‘Super Thursday’, poor data releases and the possible upcoming referendum.

If you are buying or selling Australian Dollars this week, month or year I would recommend getting in touch to put a strategy in place to maximise your trade. In order to protect you against market fluctuations we have different contract options available that will meet your needs and requirements. Therefore if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Chinese Banking Issues could cause problems for the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Chinese economy is coming under pressure again as they reported a lower than expected drop in their foreign exchange reserves of US$100bn which is the lowest level since 2012.

The effect this has for the Australian Dollar is that the less money available in China could reduce the demand from China for Australian resources and with the price of nickel having fallen dramatically recently I think we could see some problems early in the week for the Australian Dollar exchange rate vs Sterling.

Combined with the issues with the US jobs data on Friday we could see the AUD under pressure this week.

However, there are potential pitfalls for Sterling during the course of this week with the release of UK Industrial and Manufacturing data on Wednesday.

Last month saw the lowest levels in 6 years and I think we could see more of the same.

Wednesday also sees the release of NIESR GDP data and with UK GDP downgraded not that long ago and the global slowdown causing problems I think the data could be low causing a problem for the Pound across the board against all major currencies.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Australian Dollar weakens vs Sterling following US Jobs Data (Tom Holian)

After a good start to the week vs the Sterling the Australian Dollar has ended the week trading at above 2.05 after hitting 2.01 a few days before.

The US jobs data although showed their lowest levels of unemployment since 2008 the data also showed a lot less new jobs created with 151,000.

This has caused the Australian Dollar to weaken as often what happens in the US has a big impact on risk appetite for global investors.

With the data coming out mixed all the commodity based currencies including the AUD, NZD & ZAR have all weakened following the report vs Sterling.

With little data due out until the latter part of next week I think we could start the week off quite positively for Sterling creating some good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars.

However, all eyes will focus on UK data in the form of industrial and manufacturing figures released on Wednesday. Recently they have hit 6 year lows and I expect more of the same.

Following on from this the NIESR release UK GDP for the last 3 months and I expect this figure to be low.

Therefore, if you need to buy AUD it may be worth doing early in the week and conversely if you need to sell Australian Dollars to buy Sterling it may be worth holding out towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Retail Sales (Daniel Johnson)

At 00.30am we will see the release of Australian Retail Sales figures, I think there may be slight improvement but not enough fo GBP/AUD to breach 2.00 and stay below. The 2.00 figure is extremely attractive to AUD sellers and we usually see a mass sell off if we move into the 1.99s. This causes GBP strengthen and we then move above 2.00 again. The 2.00 mark is definitely proving a hard resistance level to break.

We also have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy statement following on from Retail Sales. The Monetary Policy statement reviews economic and financial conditions and determines the appropriate stance for policy moving forward. It is a clear indication as to interest rate policy.

A drop in Aussie interest rates seems to be the only chance for significant Sterling rally.

If you would like a more in detail forecast for your individual currency requirement, taking into account time scale and edging. I will be happy to assit. Please do not hesitate to get in touch. I can guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. You can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

UK fall impacts GBPAUD – UK Inflation – Steve Eakins

The Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rate has been fairly varied through the last few trading sessions. These seem to be driven by factors around the world but it has been the UK’s fall in favour which has had the biggest impacts. The UK economy has been showing real worrying signs of slowing and in turn we have seen the value of the Pound fall making almost every currency more expensive to buy.  Earlier today we had the latest Inflation Report from the Bank of England and this confirmed these concerns. It seems the general global uncertainty, the fall in financial markets around the world and the fall in Oil is impacting the UK’s health more than most.

As a result GBPAUD rates are falling and I would not be too surprised if we see this continue in the near future, the trend is expected to continue.  This means that if you have AUD to sell this is great news and you may want to be in a position to take advantage. If you do want more information on this current high for AUD sellers please contact Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478

Moving forward I expect rates to drop further meaning that buyers should also be wary.

Overnight we have the latest updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia and with it we will get a better idea of the economic health of the economy, this will have an impact on the strength of the AUD and therefore the cost of buying or selling the currency.  It is likely that the economy would have slowed but what will impact the market most is finding out by how much. The market would have priced in an expectation and how far away from that will impact markets. If the forecast has been made correctly rates will probably stay around the current figures, this is however unlikely. I expect they too have actually performed better resulting in strength being given for the AUD as demand for the currency increases.  The ‘other side of the coin’ however is that their health is poorer than expected due to perhaps the slowdown in China.  If this happens a opportunity will be available for anyone with AUD to buy.

If you would like to be updated as soon as this news breaks please register your interest and get in contact now. Email myself STEVE EAKINS at hse@curerncies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478 with your contact details and situation so I can thereafter inform you of the change.

Happy trading.

Sterling under pressure vs the Australian Dollar before the UK Quarterly Inflation Report (Tom Holian)

Sterling has come under pressure once again vs the Australian Dollar as the UK has a big day ahead for economic data which will impact GBPAUD exchange rates.

The UK Quarterly Inflation Report is published at the same time as the Bank of England interest rate decision and I think this could cause big movements for Sterling in a negative direction vs the AUD as inflation is worryingly low.

Inflation was measured last week at just 0.2% well below the Bank of England’s target of 2% and until things start to improve then the BoE will find it difficult to raise interest rates in the UK.

Indeed, recent speculation is that interest rates won’t rise until May 2017 which has caused confidence in the Pound to fall recently.

I expect the Quarterly Inflation Report to shows big problems for inflation which is something that Mark Carney will be asked about at today’s meeting.

Also, for many months now the MPC have voted 8-1 in favour of keeping rates on hold so if there’s a split to 9-0 then I think we could even see GBPAUD rates move towards 2 on mid-market going into the weekend.

Forecast for today is for Australian Dollar strength vs Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me directly on 01494787478 and ask for Tom Holian when calling

 

 

Sterling Showing Signs of Life Ahead of “Super Thursday” (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has shown signs of life this week, ahead of key day tomorrow for the UK being dubbed “Super Thursday” by investors. The Pound has made some gains against the major currencies and whilst we’ve seen a slight dip against the AUD, the general trend over the past couple of days has been positive for those clients holding Sterling.

GBP/AUD rates are once again floating around 2.04, having dropped perilously close to the 2 level last week. This was reassuring as it represents a key resistance level, which if broken, could have meant further losses for the Pound over the coming weeks. However, despite this realignment I am not expecting GBP/AUD to spike aggressively under the current conditions and if 2.05 were to become available again, I would be very tempted to secure any short-term positions. The on-going problems in China are certainly a negative for the Australian economy due to their trade links but this has now been factored into the current exchange rates, so any improvement there would likely boost the AUD.

Looking at the UK and we have certainly seen a downturn since the turn of the year, due to a poor run of data and a change in market perception. The Bank of England (BoE) now seem to have changed their stance and are keen to see the Pound lose value to boost our own trade links with the Eurozone and beyond. With current inflation levels a cause for concern I do not anticipate an interest rate hike anytime soon, news which has also softened market support for the Pound.

Tomorrow we have some key data release for the UK and I’m expecting a much clearer outlook for the short-term movement on Sterling rates following these. We have the latest BoE interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement, along with their Quarterly inflation report. We also have the BoE minutes, which should give us a key insight into the current thinking of our central bank, regarding the current economic climate and future monetary policy stances for the UK.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 01494 725 353 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD rates improve from poor trade data (Joshua Privett)

The recent news coming out of China has started to become telling on the Australain economy. The final tallies for December were tallied, and exports were found to have fallen by 5%.

But the results on the markets were subdued – GBP/AUD only rose by 1 cent, and similar gains were seen on EUR/AUD.

There are a couple of reasons for this.

Whilst exports fell the holiday period does tend to slow ouput, you only have to look at the Pound’s slide on the markets in January to notice that some element of this is common-place. So whilst the news is dissapointing, it is not isolated to Australia, nor as serious as it sounds.

The second piece of trade data which showed a fall in trade balance further into negative territory also gives a better understanding towards market mentality.

A negative trade balance shows that a country is importing more than it is exporting. In December, this fell from $-2.5bn to $-3.5bn in a single month.

First of all, it’s healthy that the economy can afford this. But this also highlights that the population in Australia explodes during the tourist season, and further goods are required to be brought in to sustain them. Which is why this piece of data is largely positive as it demonstrates the sheer size of the tourist industry and how it is currently performing.

So a mixed bag for the Australain Dollar overnight, but overall  a negative effect. China is still a pervasive worry, and the real question is whether in March this will translate into the rate cut some are worrying about?

With the current volatility in the markets, it is not uncommon to see a difference between the high and the low each day of up to 4 Cents, so a premium is put on being able to move quickly once a rate you are happy with becomes available.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar requirement should contact me on +44 1494 787 478 and ask the reception to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australain Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed for a future transfer in order to have certainty about what your purchase may have costed you. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Australia set to release latest trade numbers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In the early hours of tomorrow morning Australia are set to release their latest Export, Import and Balance numbers. With the data releases set to be announced as a mixed bag its difficult to predict where GBPAUD will be tomorrow morning however I wouldn’t be surprised to see the positives outweigh the negatives and sterling make gains against the dollar. However later in the week the UK are set to release their latest interest rate decision. If Mark Carney continues to take a dovish stance I expect GBPAUD could drop back to the 2 level or even below 2 and back into the 1.90s.

If you are buying or selling Australian Dollars this week, month or year I would recommend getting in touch to put a strategy in place to maximise your trade. In order to protect you against market fluctuations we have different contract options available that will meet your needs and requirements. Therefore if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you want further information in regards to a specific currency pair that I have not covered (AUD/USD, AUD/EUR, etc) then feel free to email me with the currency pair and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

 

 

Australian Dollar benefits from the Japanese Interest Rate Cut (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar vs Sterling has felt the benefit of a Japanese interest rate cut this week as the negative rate means carry trading which involves money going out of Japan in search of higher yields including the Australian Dollar.

This has seen Australian Dollar rates vs Sterling at their strongest level since May 2015 with GBPAUD rates hitting below 2 during Friday’s trading session.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates and if they keep the policy the same of keeping rates on hold I think this could result in more Australian Dollar strength.

I do expect the RBA to cut rates during 2016 but I don’t think will happen for some time so next week I expect GBPAUD rates to drop below 2 again providing some excellent opportunities to sell AUD into Sterling.

Wednesday sees the release of Australian Trade Balance and Export figures which could see a small recovery for Sterling vs the AUD if the figures show a fall owing to the slowdown in China.

However, overall I expect GBPAUD rates to fall below 2 again during the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk