This mornings weaker inflation figures led to some strong AUD weakness overnight but the pound was to slip back below 1.81 following the release of the Bank of England minutes which did highlight an improved growth forecast but the minutes again showed the MPC were unsure on how much scope Britain’s economy had to grow without generating inflation. This would to many suggest that an interest rate hike could well be something not too far around the corner, however most analysts were maybe expecting a slightly more hawkish stance from the Bank of England minutes but following the release analysts are still forecasting mid 2015 before the bank considers making its first move which pushed sterling exchange rates down following the 09:30 release.
Looking for the rest of the week watch out for US initial jobless claims figures tomorrow afternoon for an impact on global risk appetite and UK retail sales figures released on Friday at 09:30. Last month these figures were much stronger than forecast lending some good support to the pound, should Fridays data be the same then Friday could be a good day to buy AUD particularly with it being ANZAC day and the markets in Australia closed.
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Australian inflation data out this morning came in much lower than expected at just 2.9% compared to the expectation of 3.2% and the GBPAUD exchange rate has shot up by 1% already this morning. Inflation figures are often used as an indicator in what to do with interest rates so low inflation often puts pressure on a central bank to cut interest rates. With the RBA in February announcing an end to their interest rate cutting cycle could this provide us with an about turn?
The Bank of England minutes are due shortly and with no talk of QE all eyes will focus on any comments the BoE may make about future interest rate rises. With UK unemployment the best it has been since 2009 and coming in at 6.9% last week much better than expected this could help to push up GBPAUD exchange rates.
The looming news will be how China performs this year as the Australian economy is so heavily reliant on Chinese growth. With China having slowed to 7.4% during the first quarter of 2014 and a fall from 7.7% in the final quarter of 2013 this could harm the Australian Dollar in the longer term. Click on this link for an interesting article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27045527
If you have a currency requirement to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian email@example.com
GBP/AUD rates continue to float just below 1.80 on the exchange, with the AUD finding support around the current levels. Many investors will now be hoping to achieve 1.80 as a trade level and with key economic data releases this week, I believe we will see fluctuation on the currency pair. The key date will be the release of Wednesday’s Bank of England (BoE) minutes and monetary policy decisions. These minutes give us a key insight into the BoE’s most recent meeting and will divulge whether any of its members voted for a change in interest rates or monetary injections. Any indication that a rate hike could be on the cards is likely to give the Pound a boost and this would almost certainly push GBP/AUD exchange rates through 1.80. We also have CPI data for Australia out overnight on Wednesday and any deviation from the expected results is likely to cause additional market volatility.
The AUD has struggled to make any sustained gains against GBP over the past few weeks, although with China’s economy showing signs of improvement an increased demand for Australia’s raw materials is likely to help the AUD’s cause in the longer-term.
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Since early February when the RBA announced an end to their current interest rate cutting cycle we have seen Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates drop by as much as 7% during this period. Also, during this time the RBA governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that the mining sector will be replaced by the construction sector as the next boom for the Australian economy likely to last for 2 years.
Australian unemployment data during April showed that the figures fell from 6% to 5.8%, the best employment levels for any western economy and showing signs of growth for the Australian economy and a reason to invest in the country. This is also another reason why the Australian Dollar has strengthened against Sterling.
However, during last week with inflation in the UK falling below wage inflation for the first time since 2009 the Pound has seen a rise across the board against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar which has seen exchange rates break through 1.80 for the first time in weeks.
Chinese Premier Mr Li said growth at about 7.5 per cent would be with a reasonable range. On Wednesday, China reported that its economy had expanded by 7.4 per cent year-on-year, above consensus forecasts of 7.3 per cent. With growth forecasts having fallen recently in China this is another reason why the Australian Dollar lost ground against the Pound last week.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
GBP/AUD rates spiked up during Friday morning’s trading and at time of were putting pressure back on 1.80, which seems to be a level the AUD has found support around. The AUD had made gains earlier this week following positive economic data from China and it seemed as though a move back towards 1.75 could be on the cards. However, yesterday’s UK unemployment figures came in much better than expected and halted the AUD in its tracks, before a decisive move back up to the current levels.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still keen to see the AUD weaken off further to help boost exports, it could be argued that the AUD could fall further against the major currencies in the short-term. However, if the demand in China starts to increase for Australia’s raw materials and their economic data continues to improve, it may be that the AUD will find further market support.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org. Alternatively, you can call one of our experienced brokers on 0044 1494 787 478.
The Data from Australia of late has been very good with numbers from data releases like unemployment coming out much better than many analysts had anticipated. Prior to this the AUD was weakening at an alarming pace with GBP/AUD reaching over 1.90. What a big change we have seen in the space of a couple of months with the rate now at 1.79. For those of you that did not catch the rate at 1.90 and are holding out for this to come around again you may be waiting a while. Even with today’s unemployment figures for the UK coming out at 6.9% GBP/AUD has still not breached 1.80.
It seems that the RBA will not be cutting rates further which is what originally caused the devaluation in the currency in the first place. I do however think that the RBA will not want the currency to weaken any further so if you can trade above 1.80 you will be doing well.
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GBPAUD rates have spiked up over 2 cents compared to the lows at the beginning of the week. This can be attributed to two main reasons; firstly Sterling Strength was seen this morning when Unemployment was shown to have fallen under 7% to the lowest levels for years, secondly with the building escalation in Ukraine risk appetite is low resulting in a general exist from the AUD currency.
It is over all quite surprising but could be the start of a rally back up for the Pound. The Ukraine scenario will probably continue adding fuel to the fire. I also expect the Oz government to try to weaken their currency in the months ahead to help their exports. This is probably over the next 6 months meaning long term we could see rates climb back up over 1.80 and potentially revising the 1.90’s dreamed about over the last few years.
In the short term however timing a trade will remain important to getting the best price. Here we offer a pro-active service helping people achieve just that. So if you are looking at trading the GBPAUD pairing it is always worth getting in contact; at the very least you will have another view on the markets, best results are that you will see a saving compared to your current provider. The second however is by far the normal result! Contact myself – STEVE EAKINS – either via my personal email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling on the normal number +0044 (0) 1494 787478.
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The RBA Minutes published overnight suggest the Aussie is unlikely to appreciate much further in my view. The RBA warned that the recent strength in the Aussie Dollar over the last few months would be a drag on their efforts to rebalance the economy. Whilst I don’t feel this will result in any kind of interest rate change given the recent cuts (I think we will see a period of stability in that regard), it does suggest the RBA are taking a close interest in the strength of the Aussie Dollar. To this end I would not be surprised to see some other form of intervention should the AUD begin to appreciate particularly against the USD.
We still have UK inflation figures to be published this morning at 9.30 and the US equivalent at 1.30 so both of these could see some movement. Sterling will also be backed up by a reasonable showing in the jobs figures due out tomorrow morning in my view. On the Euro we have economic sentiment figures due out this morning, and wider European inflation figures out on Wednesday morning. German figures released late last week came in on target, but if the European figures as a whole don’t match this we could see Euro weakness. Inflation is becoming a worry for the ECB so the longer it remains low, the more likely we are to see some form of intervention by them. Who knows we may even get to see what these unprecedented measures are that Mario Draghi keeps hinting at!
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Sterling has fallen to a new fresh 6 month low against the Australian Dollar trading into the 1.77′s and making the pounds losses in the last 30 days to 4.2% a difference of $14,800 AUD on a £200k money transfer. With the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing their minutes overnight this volatility could well continue.
As you can see by timing your exchange significant savings can be made. The purpose of this website is to provide relevant information to help private and corporate clients with upcoming money transfers to arrange. As one of the authors on the site, my colleagues and I have personally helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange and would be happy to see what we can do for you. I work for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers and am confident I can undercut any price you have been offered by your bank or current provider.
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