Is the Pound now overvalued against the Aussie Dollar? (Joseph Wright)

After a strong run for the Pound in recent weeks the pair remain lodged just below the 1.80 mark, which leads me to believe that there may be ceiling for the pair at 1.80 moving forward.

Last week the pair hit a 17-month high after the Pound has benefited off the back of positive Brexit talks, with the current Prime Minister, Theresa May receiving plaudits for her efforts addressing the issue of the Northern Irish border along with the Brexit bill.

Whilst there has been a lot of positive sentiment surrounding the UK and the Pound recently, the Aussie Dollar has been coming under pressure due to fears of a slowing economy down under.

The Aussie Dollar has also been coming under pressure as the Fed Reserve Bank in the US has hiked US interest rates twice (soon to be 3 times if economists predictions are correct) this year. The increasing interest rates in the US have increased demand for the US Dollar and this has seen the Aussie Dollar drop as demand has slowed as investors prefer to hold funds in US Dollars now they can get a return.

Moving forward I think that whether or not the Brexit process continues to progress will determine whether or not the Pound climbs, and it’s certainty worth following the GBP/AUD pair when they trade around 1.80 as this benchmark level is key in my opinion.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP AUD Rates ahead of Key EU Summit (James Lovick)

The Australian remains under considerable pressure as it has done for some time and this is unlikely to change shape any time soon. One of the big factors having a negative impact om the Aussie dollar is what is happening in the US. Where Australia had maintained some of the highest interest rates in the western world, the US is now looking to claim that spot.

The US is widely expected to raise interest rates at the US Fed meeting next week which will take rates up to 1.5%. Looking forward and rates are expected to climb higher with another two or three to be expected throughout 2018. The Reserve Bank of Australian on the other hand have made it clear there is no urgency to raise rates down under and will not follow other economies.

Interest rate rises can create strong improvements in a currency and the lack of action down under is helping to see the Aussie weaken as funds move out of Australia where the return on investment starts to become less.

GBP AUD

Those clients with a requirement to buy or sell Australian dollars should pay particular attention to the EU summit which starts tomorrow and concludes on Friday. This is a major event in the diary as it will confirm where or not sufficient progress has been made by Britain in the Brexit negotiations to move on to phase two which will tackle the future trade arrangement.

After the breakthrough last Friday where Theresa May was able to broker a deal which covered the Irish border and where all parties agreed it is now expected that talk on a trade deal will be able to commence in the New Year. This in my view should be seen as very positive for GBP AUD exchange rates and a move towards 1.80 could become a reality.

There is no guarantee that talks will move forward especially after some political upsets this week between Brexit secretary David Davis and EU leaders although the general mood is looking positive. In my view there is a high chance that the pound will strengthen at the end of this week.

Those clients with a pending requirement to buy Australian dollars would be wise to get in touch ahead of this key EU summit as there is likely to be a considerable market movement on the back of it. Please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

FED and EU Summit to drive GBPAUD exchagne rates

This week, events that are not directly involved with Australia and the United Kingdom will dictate GBPAUD exchange rates. 

The Federal Reserve which is the United States central bank, will release there latest interest rate decision Wednesday evening. Speculators are predicting that the FED will raise interest rates from 1.25% to 1.5% which will match the Australian interest rate. Regular readers will be aware that there is a direct correlation between the commodity currencies and the US dollar. As the US dollar is a safe haven and the commodity in some ways is a risk, I expect to see the Australian dollar sold off and the US dollar to be purchased.

The EU summit on the 14th and 15th December, should outline more detail about the Brexit negotiations. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced in recent weeks that Brexit negotiations are going well and therefore the UK and EU have agreed to start stage 2 negotiations. If the EU reiterate Theresa May I expect this could provide a further boost for sterling.

Therefore it looks like the Australian dollar could devalue Wednesday evening and the pound could have a finish to the week, therefore my forecast is for GBPAUD to break 1.80 by the close of play on Friday. If you have Australian dollars to sell and need to buy sterling I would recommend getting in touch as soon as possible.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Sterling hits 18 month high to buy the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound hit an 18 month high to buy Australian Dollars on Friday after it was announced that Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to secure a deal in order to take things forward with the Brexit discussions at next week’s EU summit.

The divorce bill has been agreed which will be between £35bn-£39bn as well as agreeing no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The rights of citizens has been agreed across both the UK and the EU which is great news for all concerned and this gave the Pound a huge lift on Friday morning against all major currencies including vs the Australian Dollar.

However, it appears as though the good news did lot last for that long as the Pound fell against the Australian Dollar towards the ends of Friday afternoon.

It could be argued that investors caused a big over reaction as although the news was clearly positive as it allows the talks to progress to phase two at next week’s EU summit, we are still headed for a very uncertain future over the next few months.

On Tuesday we could see further movement for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar when the latest set of inflation data is announced so make sure you’re prepared to move quickly if you need to make a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars.

If you’re in the process of either buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to be kept updated with what is happening over the next few days then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your trade.

Contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to hearing from you.

Could we see further falls for AUD? (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar could be set further falls

I am of the opinion the Australian Dollar could be in for a rough time. Retail sales data recently fell to the worst levels in four years and this is predominantly due to the increase in property prices. High wage growth areas such as Melbourne and Sydney are becoming more and more expensive and Australians are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxuries which is hitting the economy. Foreign investors are willing to pay the escalated prices which is not helping the problem.

FED Rate hike could mean trouble for AUD

There is also an anticipated rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the US.  The Australian Dollar is a favourite for investors due to the promises of high returns due to the attractive interest levels offered. The Australian interest rate is currently set at 1.5%, if the FED raises rates as predicted to 1.5% on Wednesday this would put Australia and the US on par. With the US Dollar considered to be a safe haven currency investors could well leave the Australian Dollar for the safety of the US dollar which could cause Australian Dollar weakness.

Unemployment Data and Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook data could influence AUD

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is published by Australian government, updates the economic and fiscal outlook from the previous budget. If there is a dovish tone the Aussie could suffer. This could well occur considering the dip in retail sales.

Unemployment data is due in Thursday and I expect there to be a drop slightly above the expectation of 5.5% which could cause Australian Dollar weakness.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Will the Pound hit 1.80 against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has maintained its strength against the Australian Dollar during the course of the week even though the the political situation in the UK remains uncertain concerning the Brexit talks.

The DUP are rejecting a ‘regulatory alignment’ between Northern Ireland and Ireland which is also being resisted against by a number of other members in government. The DUP are unlikely to allow a border in the middle of the sea as this could cause huge problems politically for Ireland.

Although the Brexit is clearly causing a lot of uncertainty at the moment there appear to be real problems for the economy down under in Australia.

Australian GDP figures released showed a big drop from 0.9% in quarter two to 0.6% in the previous quarter. This is likely to keep interest rates on hold as the RBA clearly will not want to cause a downturn for the economy.

Indeed, consumer spending has also seen a big slowdown in Australia which has slowed at is lowest pace since 2008 which is another reason for GBPAUD exchange rates moving in an upwards direction.

I think the Brexit is the biggest issue to concern anyone with a requirement to either buy or sell Australian Dollars but with things slowing down under this is the reason why I think there is a possibility we’ll see GBPAUD exchange rates move towards 1.80.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Aussie Dollar hovers around a 18-month highs, will the Pound hold on to its recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has managed so far to hold onto its recent gains against the Aussie Dollar, despite stalls to Brexit negotiations hitting the headlines over the past week.

There has been hopes of a agreed Brexit bill announcement this week, which would likely push the Pound higher but the there sticking point of Northern Ireland’s terms and its border is proving to be a stumbling block at the moment.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May has come under pressure for her dealings with her EU counterparts this week after many had expected to see the Brexit bill agreed, only to be disappointed to discover the Northern Irish border issue throw a spanner in the works.

Once the Brexit bill has been agreed the path is cleared for Brexit trade negotiations to begin between the UK and the remaining EU members, which I expect to be a positive for the UK and therefore the Pound. I also think that should a transitional deal be agreed we can expect to see the Pound climb also.

On a negative note for the Pound, should there be further stalls regarding any deals I think the Pound could see a sharp sell-off across the board as the UK is running out of time to make progress at the negotiating table.

If you would like to be updated in the wake of a short term price change between the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

How long will this period of Australian dollar strength against sterling?

My recent article this weekend suggested that there was a possibility that GBPAUD could reach 1.80 in the upcoming weeks and until late yesterday afternoon this prediction looked very likely. However the DUP at the close of business yesterday evening announced they are unhappy that UK Prime Minister could offer a different border control for Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK. Off the back of the news the pound lost ground against all of the G10 currencies and the Australian dollar.

Later that evening, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5%, which was no surprise, however surprisingly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary was extremely positive which strengthened the Australian dollar further against the pound. With the amount of strength we have seen for the Aussie rumors the Reserve Bank of Australia may appear to be backtracking and actually could raise interest rates early next year. If this is the case, it’s quite clear that the RBA have been jawboning in an attempt

However, I’m still of the opinion that the UK will secure some kind of deal in the upcoming weeks with the EU which will mean trade negotiations will begin in the New Year. If this is the case this period of strength for the Australian dollar against sterling could be short lived therefore I would recommend any client converting Australian dollars into sterling should look to make arrangements sooner rather than later.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Australian Dollar Rockets after RBA Meeting (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has made substantial gains overnight following the meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia last night. The central bank held rates at 1.5% as widely expected however the commentary was slightly more hawkish which has led the markets to believe that there could be an interest rate hike down under in the early part of 2018. The markets had been expecting the first hike sometime in late 2018 and so this change in expectations is helping to strengthen the Aussie.

GBP AUD – Brexit Volatility

Clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds have seen a good couple of weeks with some of the best levels available for a year. The more upbeat mood in Britain in terms of the Brexit negotiations has helped the pound rally over these last two weeks although GBP AUD hit a major roadblock in afternoon trading yesterday.

The expected deal between Britain and the EU which focussed on the thorny issue of the Irish border was abandoned yesterday afternoon after the Democratic Unionist Party scuppered the deal stating it was unwilling for Northern Ireland to have different terms to Britain when leaving the EU. The pound dropped against the Australian dollar immediately after the news and we may need to wait until the end of this week or next before new developments emerge.

If no deal can be hammered out then the pound is likely to drop in value quickly although the expectation is that there will be sufficient progress for Brexit talks to move onto trade before the end of next week.

Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see major new direction in the rates over these next two weeks ahead of the key EU summit 14th & 15th December. Please get in touch to discuss how these event directly impact on the rates of exchange and how it affects your specific requirement. Please email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Could GBPAUD break through 1.80 this week? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week GBPAUD hit a 1 year high. Over the last three months the pound has been making considerable inroads against the Australian dollar. Exchange rates have increased from 1.62 to 1.77 and therefore a £200,000 currency transfer today compared to three months ago will generate our clients an additional AU$30,000.

The pound made further inroads against the Aussie last week when UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK are willing to pay €50bn to the EU as a divorce settlement and the EU appeared to be happy with the offer.

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to meet President of the European Commision Jean Claude Juncker and President of the European Council Donald Tusk tomorrow to discuss Brexit further. The divorce settlement bill will be discussed further but a hot topic will be the Irish border.

This weekend in particular, The Republic of Ireland have stated a hard border splitting the Republic of Ireland and Northern Island is not an option and Donald Tusk has announced he would back Ireland over the UK as Ireland will remain a member of the EU.

Reports are suggesting that Theresa May’s teem believe it’s impossible to put a deal on the table for Ireland until the UK know the deal they will receive with the EU in regards to trade. Further reports Rumours suggest Mr Tusk actually agrees with Theresa May therefore I expect this topic will be put on hold on to trade discussions have begun. Therefore I expect the pound to continue to rise against that Australian dollar this week and in fact this month.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.