Will the Pound continue to increase against the Australian Dollar this month? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit close to a 30 day high vs the Australian Dollar creating some very good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars recently. The Australian Dollar has come under a lot of pressure recently as global investors appear to be shying away from the AUD in favour of increasing yields elsewhere.

The minutes from the latest meeting in the US have all but guaranteed an interest rate hike in March and since then the Australian Dollar has weakened.

Indeed, the Bank of England are also considering increasing interest rates by as early as May according to some sources as inflation continues to remain above the target of 2%.

With the interest rates in Australia not as favourable as they were in previous years and with other nations looking at raising rates this is why we’re heading towards 1.80 for GBPAUD exchange rates.

A recent statement by RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested that the central bank are unlikely to be looking at raising rates until some point next year as Australia is struggling with low inflation. There appears to be a bit of a two tier economy as the western part of the country has much lower inflation than in the east and this is causing a headache for the RBA about how to control inflation concerns with monetary policy.

Wednesday could be a volatile day for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar with the latest release of Chinese manufacturing data. As China is such a large trading partner with Australia this can often have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar depending on how the data comes out.

If you’re in the process of buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me direclty for further information and a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Inflation could delay rate hike from the RBA (Daniel Johnson)

RBA Rate Hike stalled by inflation

Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently suggested that a hike in interest rates may not occur until 2019, citing struggling inflation as the reason for holding fire on a hike. This does not bode well considering the US Dollar is considered a safe haven currency and currently offers the same return as the Australian Dollar. The forecast for hikes from the Federal Reserve is that there could be as many as three, which would make the Aussie considerably less attractive to investors.
On Tuesday Home Sales figures are released. New Home Sales is a key barometer as to the health of the housing market and can give an indication as to what is expected in the future. If there is a high reading above expectations we could see Australian Dollar strength.

Keep a close eye on Iron Ore Prices

If you have a trade involving the Australian Dollar it is always wise to keep a close eye on Iron Ore prices. Iron Ore is Australia’s primary export and fluctuations in price will alter the price of the Australian Dollar. With the Chinese being the main purchaser of Iron Ore it may also be shrew to keep an eye on growth figures from China.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs.

Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in the coming weeks?

The pound to Australian dollar is looking much better for Australian dollar buyers we we get closer back to the higher levels which we have seen since the Referendum vote. The key piece of evidence on this was the news that perhaps the UK will be receiving some form of privileged access to the single market once it leaves the EU.

Wage growth data from Australia also improved but it wasn’t really a strong enough Inflation figure to justify the hiking of interest rates as many had previously been hoping for. The end result was actually a slightly weaker Australian dollar as despite rising, there is less chance of a case for an interest rate hike. Reduced chances of any interest rate hike are better news for AUD buyers since it makes the Australian currency less attractive to hold.

Inflation is not above the target of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) so there are less opportunities for a case to hike interest rates, general impressions are for a rate rise much further ahead in the future but for now the lack of one is seeing the Australian dollar weaker.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars the outlook on Brexit is vital to the short-term drivers on the pound. Overall expectations for sterling are in the main linked to Brexit and a speech next week expected by Theresa May could deliver some of the movement we need to see the GBPAUD rate move higher.

If you have a transfer to buy Australian dollars then perhaps tracking the 1.80 is sensible, if you wish to be kept up to date with the latest trends and themes in the market I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategies to help maximise the position.

Thank you for reading and please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

GBP AUD Rates Before Brexit Ministers Meeting (James Lovick)

The Australian construction sector took a knock this week with a large drop in construction work done. The data which covers the last quarter of 2017 were particularly weak and highlights that there are some issues in the Australian economy. It is normally the construction and housing sectors which are the first to have problems ahead of an economic slowdown or recession. Australia actually has an incredible history in avoiding a technical recession lasting decades but a slowdown could be brewing down under which could weigh heavy on the Australian dollar.

Selling Australian dollars?

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are likely to see considerable market volatility over the next few days and over the course of this weekend. Brexit uncertainty continues to keep the pressure on the price of sterling but any developments at this particular time could see a sizeable market reaction.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is meeting at her Chequers country retreat with her entire cabinet to try and form a final position on Brexit. Any details offered from the meeting are likely to see the pound react and it is understood that Theresa May will set out her Brexit plans in an about two weeks’ time before the formal trade talks take place in March. Anything positive in terms of clarity offered in my view should help strengthen the price of sterling against all of the major currencies including GBP AUD.

Clients looking to sell Australian dollars may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later to avoid disappointment. The pound has remained very weak for a sustained period and any positive Brexit developments could be the trigger for considerable sterling strength. Please get in touch with me if you would like to discuss your own requirement and how we can assist with any transfers and the timing of an exchange.

Australian home sales are released on Tuesday and should give some more insight into the state of the housing market down under whilst Australian business confidence figure released on Wednesday should give some idea as to how optimistic business is on the future of the economy.

To discuss your own currency requirement and how these events are likely to influence the rate of exchange for your won transfer then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

AUD Forecast – AUD Struggling to Impact Against Sterling Despite Brexit Concerns (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has struggled to make much of an impact against Sterling of late, although it seems to have found support below 1.80 against Sterling.

GBP/AUD rates have remained range bound between 1.77- 1.7829 during Wednesday’s trading, with both positive and negative data influencing the pairs value.

The Pound gained some support yesterday following a leaked Brexit report. It indicated that the EU Parliament is set to push for Britain to have “privileged” single market access, giving the UK more flexibility and thus softening our upcoming exit. It seems as though Brussels are keen to accelerate the UK’s exit, perhaps by offering improved terms.

Whilst these reports have not been substantiated, they seem to have filtered through to currency markets and provided enough substance to act as a potential catalyst, for an increase in investor confidence.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released overnight, coupled with UK Unemployment rising to 4.4% seemingly put pressure back on Sterling.

The RBA were keen to point towards wage growth improvements as a reason they could look to raise interest rates this year. With their global outlook also looking fairly positive, the AUD could be one of the main benefactors.

Investors will look towards riskier, potentially higher yielding currencies such as the AUD in times in global prosperity. This could help strengthen the AUD’s position over the coming months if does indeed come to fruition.

In the short-term the UK economy also received a boost, seeing the strongest two quarters of productivity since the 2008 recession.

The markets seem to be increasingly driven off of rumours rather than facts and as such, they are proving increasingly difficult to dissect.

With Brexit developments likely to drive investor sentiment over the coming months, I would be wary about gambling too much on a market which has become unpredictable at almost every turn.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What factors could push the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate above 1.80 this year? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate has been hovering just below the 1.80 mark for some time now, and although the GBP/AUD pair appear to have consolidated between 1.75 and 1.80 the pair are yet to properly test the 1.80 threshold.

AUD has been boosted in the early hours of this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes from their latest interest rate decision were announced. The RBA remains positive focusing on wage growth and a pick-up in the global economy moving forward which could lead to a rate hike from the RBA later in the year.

The topic of a rate hike in Australia is likely to be key moving forward as a number of other major economies have begun hiking rates now. AUD had previously benefited from having some of the highest interest rates available in the developed world but as other currencies now offer similar returns AUD has lost its appeal somewhat, and this issue is what could give the Pound a chance of gaining on AUD pushing the GBP/AUD above 1.80.

JP Morgan recently offered their opinion on the Aussie Dollars prospects and suggested the currency could fall as weaker commodity prices and monetary policy divergence put pressure on the AUD’s value.

There is an important data release out this morning from the UK in the form of Average Earnings data. This is key because the figure has disappointed recently and struggled to keep up with inflation levels which had previously made the BoE hesitant to hike interest rates. Should wages have increased over the past 3-months the chances of a rate hike are improved so I would expect to see a jump in the Pound’s value should this be the case.

Planning around events such as these can prove beneficial, so do feel to get in touch to discuss any upcoming transfers you plan on making.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar has a tough few days – What else lies ahead this week?

The Australian Dollar has not had a great week this week so far following on from the RBA meeting minutes released yesterday morning.

It still appears that the RBA are quite a way from considering raising interest rate this year, due to various concerns about how this will impact consumers over there and the general economic position for the country as it stands.

One of the key issues as it stands for Australia is wage growth, which is similar to many other economies around the world. Wage growth essentially measures how much people’s wages are going up and as it stands for many central Banks around the world the issue is that there is a gap between wage growth and inflation (the rise in the cost of goods or services).

Interest rates have been left on hold since August 2016 which is the longest level of stability since the early 1990’s and it does not look like there may be a change for a good few months yet.

Wage price index figures are due out tomorrow, which is a measure of the cost of labour and even though it does appear the labour market is looking fairly strong, we are yet to see wage growth pick up, this is slowing down consumer spending as consumers are starting to build up more and more debt.

Recent RBA data also shows that the mortgage debt-to-income ratio for Australia has risen from 120 percent in 2012 to 140 percent recently, which is not great news.

All in all I am still of the opinion that the Australian may struggle in the coming weeks and months as issues like this continue to dent economic data, so if I had Australian Dollars to sell i would be tempted to sell them reasonably soon depending on which currency I needed to purchase, if I had Australian Dollars to buy with another major currency then I would watch this market closely for a spike.

If you are in the position that you need to make a currency exchange in the near future then it would make sense to get in touch with me as I can help you both in terms of achivieving the very best rates along with assistance in the timing of your transaction.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Pound gains vs the Australian Dollar after uncertain RBA minutes (Tom Holian)

The RBA minutes came out last night and they stated that they are concerned about wage growth after years of easy monetary policy settings allowing people to borrow money cheaply.

Australian households are currently experiencing a huge amount of debt and they are concerned especially about home owners with interest-only mortgages.

The central bank assistant governor Michel Bullock said that the risks to the current levels of debt are ‘not particularly acute’.

However, clearly there is a big concern as if interest rates are allowed to rise and wage growth doesn’t increase this could cause a big problem for homeowners with interest only mortgages. The RBA are currently keeping close tabs on the economy  and as mortgage debt is high and property prices appear to be slowing down then I think the RBA will keep interest rates on hold for quite some time to come.

This could, in the longer term, cause the Australian dollar to weaken as other economies including both the US and the UK are preparing to increase interest rates during the course of this year. The US have penciled in a rate hike for March with almost a 100% certainty of this happening whilst the UK may hike rates in May with a 75% of this happening.

This week the UK has a number of important data releases due out including GDP figures for the final quarter of 2017 tomorrow morning. Expectations are for growth of 1.5% year on year so anything different is likely to cause a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates so make sure you keep a close eye out on what happens over the next few days.

If you would like to free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me directly with a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Factors effecting AUD (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – UK Retail Sales hurt Sterling

The Australian Dollar has strengthened against the Pound of late due to retail sales data coming in lower than expectations on Friday.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals the data for both year on year and month on month changes. Retail sales volume was up 1.6% year on year in January, an increase from the previous period 1.5%, but still well below the expected 2.5%.
The monthly growth rate for the quantity bought increased by 0.1% with declines across all main sectors except non-food stores. The results were buoyed by small rise in the purchase of sporting equipment due to the January gym rush this helped offset a fall food sales.
The results were taken as negative and Sterling has suffered as a result.
Richard Lim, Chief Executive of the research consultancy Retail Economics stated the following:
‘Following a wave of profit warning and job cut announcements, these figures confirm a terrible start to the year for retailers. Indeed the worst January since 2013’.

Interest Rate Forecast from the RBA

Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia spoke on Friday and stated that a rate hike would be dependent on inflation rising and further falls in unemployment. He did however say that in regards to a change in monetary policy the RBA would ‘move interest rates up, rather than down’. Inflation is s ac concern down under but Lowe said a strengthening global economy would help put inflation back on the agenda. These statements did cause the Aussie to strengthen against the majority of major currencies. Personally I would be surprised to see a rate hike this year.

Iron Ore Crucial to the value of AUD

Iron Ore is Australia’s biggest export, predominantly to the Chinese. Fluctuations in the price of Iron Ore has a result on the Aussie. Metal Bulletin’s Iron Ore index climbed to the Highest level since January 2011 which bodes well for the Australian Dollar.
I am of the opinion the Pound is chronically undervalued at present. Brexit uncertainty is currently anchoring Sterling and will do until we have clarity on a Brexit deal.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Could the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar this month and possible reasons why? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has been steadily increasing against the Australian Dollar since the turn of the year and although we have seen some small losses for the Pound, generally speaking the market for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars has been very positive.

With the US threatening to continue raising interest rates the next interest rate hike by the Fed is likely to come in March and this is in part why we have seen the Australian Dollar struggle against the Pound.

On Tuesday the latest set of minutes are due to be released by the Reserve Bank of Australia and I think this could provide the catalyst for Sterling strength against the Australian Dollar as I think the RBA will be relatively cautious in their tone.

If you look at the markets through the eyes of a global investors if you have available funds it is likely that you would look to invest in the US as with interest rates planned to be going up as well as strong growth in the world’s leading economy this could potentially be a good investment.

This could result in a sell off for riskier based currencies such as the AUD and this is why I think in the longer term that we’ll see GBPAUD exchange rates challenge 1.80 before the end of this month.

On Tuesday the UK releases the latest Quarterly Inflation Report Hearings and as inflation has continued to remain higher than the target I think this will put pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates possibly as early as May.

On Wednesday the latest UK unemployment data is due to be published and although this has been very strong one of the concerns is Average Earnings which have been lagging behind inflation so this could see a bit of volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates in the middle of the week.

If you would like to free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me directly with a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk