Sterling loses further ground on the Aussie Dollar, will GBP/AUD fall back into the early 1.60’s? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen across the board of major currency pairs today, after some disappointing Retail Sales figures got the Pound off to a slow start.

The rate of inflation increasing to its highest level in 5-years along with wages struggling to keep up has been in the financial news recently, and applying pressure to the Pounds value.

The negative effects of the reducing purchasing power of the UK consumer is beginning to show, as today’s Retail Sales figures demonstrated that year-on-year sales in the UK retail sector are slowing, and on a monthly basis the figure for sales is now negative.

Many had hoped to see the Bank of England look at hiking interest rates in order to stem the issue, although hopes of a rate hike in early November have fallen this week after the BoE governor Mark Carney was quite dovish in his speech earlier this week.

Personally I think there could be a small hike in November but I don’t expect to see this push the GBP/AUD rate back above 1.70, as the pair have already fallen some distance since hitting last months highs when the rate hike was first discussed by the BoE.

Aside from the above issues I expect to see Brexit negotiations and how they’re unfolding continue to impact GBP rates across the board, and if you would like to be notified if there are any short term price changes for the Pound do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar makes gains overnight against most major currencies following positive unemployment data and data from China (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar has made solid gains overnight against most major currencies, following positive unemployment figures released a few hours ago in Australia.

The main unemployment rate moved from 5.6% to 5.5% which was slightly better than expectations and showed a small improvement in the Australian jobs market.

On top of this a short while after we had Chinese Retail Sales and industrial production figures which were both slightly better than expectations too. Economic data from China can have a fairly large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar as Australia does rely on China for many of its exports so positive news from China generally gives the Australian Dollar a boost whilst negative data can lead to Australian Dollar weakness.

We have very little economic data left to come out from both Australia and China for the rest of the week so focus for the Australian Dollar will more likely be on global attitude to risk and any hints on interest rate change from the few members of the federal reserve that are due to speak this week in the U.S.

Next week heads will turn towards Australian inflation data, released on Wednesday morning in Australia or Tuesday late at night if you are following from the U.K.

It does appear that inflation is still outweighing wage growth in Australia, just like we are witnessing in the U.K too at present which is a slight concern for the economy and may be one of the reasons why the RBA are more than likely to hold off on any interest rate change in the coming months.

Personally I still feel that the Australian Dollar is a little stronger than it should be and that it may weaken off in the coming weeks but with economic data giving it a backbone this week then it may continue to gain over the next few days.

Here at Australian Dollar Forecast we do not only offer our readers regular, up to date market news but all of our writers also work for one of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the country. The brokerage has been in operation for over 18 years now and many of our writers have been here for the vast majority of that period so you know you are dealing with a well established company and a highly experienced trader too.

If you feel we may be able to help you exchange your currency for your business, or for a property purchase or sale then feel free to contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to contact you personally. You may already have a broker that you have lined up for this transaction but if you are having to research the markets yourself and you have stumbled across this site doing so, then your broker isn’t doing a very good job as they should be getting the information for you!

Feel free to get in touch, even if it is for a quick quote to make sure you are getting the right price as a small difference can make a large change to the amount of money that your exchange costs you.

Will GBPAUD break through 1.70?

Economists are split at present in regards to the future of GBPAUD exchange rates, and after reading the last few articles on this website, it seems that traders on the trading floor are also split and it’s no surprise when the UK’s Brexit negotiations continues to spring surprises.

Head EU negotiator Michel Barnier has announced that Brexit negotiations had hit deadlock however that same day reports were suggesting that EU officials would meet to discuss what a potential trade deal would like if the UK and EU come to an agreement about EU citizens rights and the divorce settlement bill.

With UK inflation breaking through 3%, the market is pricing in an interest rate hike which could push GBPAUD through the 1.70 barrier. However Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s comments yesterday do not fill me with much confidence. He was asked if the Bank of England plan to change monetary policy and would not give a straight answer. Nevertheless in the next 2 weeks I believe the pound will strengthen enough in anticipation providing Australian dollar buyers with a window of opportunity to buy Australian dollars above 1.70.

Longer term its important to understand that predicting the Brexit negotiations outcome is impossible. Positive news will strengthen the pound negative will do the opposite. I am optimistic that deal will be struck eventually however other traders on the floor are not. If you are purchasing pounds with Australian dollars or vice versa I would recommend getting in touch and I will keep you up to date with regular information until you are ready to convert drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

GBPAUD struggles to maintain recent form

The GBPAUD exchange rate has slipped lower from the highs of 1.69 and 1.70 fairly recently as investor concerns over the outlook for the UK to raise interest rates increase. Yesterday was the latest Inflation data for the UK and today is Unemployment data where we will get the latest news on Wage Inflation. A big driver on GBPAUD rates this week is how the market reacts to the prospect of the UK raising interest rates which now looks less likely.

Overall the Australian dollar has been stronger against sterling after investors retain an interest in the higher yielding Australian dollar which represents a very good opportunity to earn a higher yield on their investments. The big news on the Australian dollar will be the Unemployment data which is released tomorrow evening and could see the Aussie even stronger against the pound.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is key to understanding the current trends and themes in the market. With there being a high chance the pound will lose further value GBPAUD rates could be well worth considering if you have to buy Australian dollars with pounds.

We are currently at some of the better rates of this year, the worst deals were in the 1.50’s so with 1.70 only a couple of cents away and the forecast in my opinion pointing downwards say to the mid or lower 1.60’s, I think if you are buying Australian dollars moving sooner would be the best course of action.

For AUD sellers buying pounds the market remains very favourable so if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling please don’t hesitate to get in touch and discuss further the market and how we can help you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information.

Selling Australian Dollars – Dollar Resilient after Weaker US Inflation

The Australian dollar has been performing slightly better of late after a disappointing inflation report from the US which could persuade the US Fed to pause on the rate increase cycle where a hike has been widely expected this December.

Those clients looking to convert Euros into Australian dollars are seeing levels sitting just off a one year high for this pair. The recent economic improvement in the Eurozone with steady economic growth and higher inflation has helped see a strong rally for Euro exchange rates over the last six months. There is a strong chance the European Central Bank will look to taper its asset purchasing scheme at the next meeting and this should help the Euro strengthen further. EUR AUD is currently sitting at 1.50 for this pair and there may be some more room in this rally. For anyone selling Euros for Australian dollars there could be some better opportunities to come so please get in touch for assistance with the timing of your future exchange.

The pound has fallen against the Australian dollar in afternoon trade today as Brexit uncertainty continues to be the main driver for sterling Australian dollar exchange rates. GBP AUD slipped to a low of 1.6793 earlier today moving well away from the 1.70 barrier. Despite UK inflation hitting 3% earlier today the markets are still not fully convinced that there will be an interest rate increase at the November meeting. This uncertainty is keeping additional pressure on the pound although my view is that the Bank will look to raise interest rates at the November meeting.

Comments from Mark Carney today were also very hawkish in that he said he expected inflation to rise even further. A rate increase by 0.25% in November seems the logical step for me and the pound should rally by a small degree on the back of it. Clients buying Australian dollars might be wise to see the outcome

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Why does the Australian dollar remain strong when iron ore prices continue to fall?

For regular readers they will be aware that Australia’s largest export Iron ore has a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. If iron ore prices fall the trend is for the Australian dollar to fall and vice versa. However, iron ore prices have been falling recent however Australian dollar exchange rates remain resilient. There are two main reasons for this.

Another trend that has an impact on Australian dollar exchange rates is the performance of emerging markets. When emerging stock markets outpace that of developed the Australian dollar also performs well. In recent months emerging markets have been performing well and forecasters expect this trend to continue. In addition, interest rate forecasters tend to disagree with the RBA as they believe the RBA will hike interest rates throughout 2018.

Commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia, I believe will continue to dictate exchange rates   therefore people with an upcoming Australian dollar exchange should continue to monitor developments.

Economic data releases that will impact Australian dollar exchange rates 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning the RBA are set to release their latest minutes. My personal opinion is that the Governor does not want to strengthen the Australian dollar any further and thats why he continues with the stance of interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if the minutes give any further insight.

Later in the week (Thursday) the latest unemployment numbers will be released. Over the last 3 years the Australian job market has gone from strength to strength and at present remains at a record low of 5.6%. The Governor of the RBA is wary that if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen the job market could be impacted however for the time being it looks like the unemployment numbers will remain at 5.6%.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Brexit talks dominate Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has had a very volatile week so far with GBPAUD rates moving by as much as 3 cents from the high to low.

The movements have been caused by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit discussions but have overnight moved in a positive direction briefly touching 1.70 before falling again.

The European Union has started to prepare a plan for its post-Brexit negotiations with the UK but at the same time refusing to discuss any details with the UK.

Nothing has been agreed but rumours are that the EU will be open to the UK in order to encourage a deal which is a positive sign for the UK and this is why we saw the Pound make gains vs the Australian Dollar yesterday evening providing some better opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

So far there has been insufficient progress with the talks but in the draft paper EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier wants to cover the key topics of EU citizens in the UK, peace in Northern Ireland and the so called ‘divorce bill.’

Later on this afternoon there is a huge amount of data coming from the US with the release of both Retail Sales as well as Inflation figures and this could cause further volatility on GBPAUD exchange rates to end the week.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

 

Busy day for GBP/AUD exchange rate, can we expect to see similar volatility moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been trading in a volatile fashion today as a number of headlines have resulted in Sterling movement.

Although there is no major data set for release out of the UK this week, and there was little released today by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound move further as Brexit talks appear to be heating up.

This afternoon we saw the Pound sold off as it appeared that Brexit Secretary David Davis has a different opinion to his European counterparts regarding how Brexit negotiations are going. The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde today also threw her hat into the mix and stated that there needs to be more clarity regarding the Brexit, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unimaginable.

The downward trend has since reversed for the Pound as in the last 30 minutes or so its been reported that Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit has stated that the EU could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market after Brexit.

In a market like this its very difficult to judge which way the market will move, but working on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to the sudden moves.

Today’s price movement has been over 1.25% which on large currency transfers can equate to a substantial amount of money, which is where timing your transfers can really make the difference.

There are no major announcements out of Australia either this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment with today’s trading session being a clear example of how comments from significant personnel can move the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar gains a little strength after higher inflation expectations (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained a little ground against most major currencies during trading yesterday, following news that expectations for inflation over the next 12 months had risen from 3.8% in September to 4.3% currently.

On top of this, the number of participants in the inflation survey expecting inflation to be on the up rose from 58.4% to 62.8%, with only 3.8% expecting inflation to fall.

The reason that this has led to a little Australian Dollar strength is that it increases the chance of an interest rate hike. An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors and a cut in interest rates is generally seen as negative.

One way of slowing rising inflation is to hike interest rates, so the fact that inflation is expected to continue rising at a fairly rapid pace may well lead to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) having to reconsider when they next intend to hike interest rates. At present some institutions feel that we may see a hike in early 2018 whilst others are not expecting any rate hikes now until at least 2019, the market appears to be split.

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly flat period this week against most majors, and with little data for the market to feed off of for the rest of the week I would expect this trend to continue. Next week focus will be on the RBA meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and unemployment data too, so there is certainly potential for a lot more movement.

If you have a currency exchange to make involving the Australian Dollar and you would like me to assist you then I can, both in terms of getting you to top market rates and helping you with the timing of your transaction.

If you would like to speak with me directly about our service, and to get a live quote from me then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will get in touch personally. We help people moving money to and from Australia for emigration and many other reasons and would love to help you too.