Since early February when the RBA announced an end to their current interest rate cutting cycle we have seen Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates drop by as much as 7% during this period. Also, during this time the RBA governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that the mining sector will be replaced by the construction sector as the next boom for the Australian economy likely to last for 2 years.
Australian unemployment data during April showed that the figures fell from 6% to 5.8%, the best employment levels for any western economy and showing signs of growth for the Australian economy and a reason to invest in the country. This is also another reason why the Australian Dollar has strengthened against Sterling.
However, during last week with inflation in the UK falling below wage inflation for the first time since 2009 the Pound has seen a rise across the board against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar which has seen exchange rates break through 1.80 for the first time in weeks.
Chinese Premier Mr Li said growth at about 7.5 per cent would be with a reasonable range. On Wednesday, China reported that its economy had expanded by 7.4 per cent year-on-year, above consensus forecasts of 7.3 per cent. With growth forecasts having fallen recently in China this is another reason why the Australian Dollar lost ground against the Pound last week.
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GBP/AUD rates spiked up during Friday morning’s trading and at time of were putting pressure back on 1.80, which seems to be a level the AUD has found support around. The AUD had made gains earlier this week following positive economic data from China and it seemed as though a move back towards 1.75 could be on the cards. However, yesterday’s UK unemployment figures came in much better than expected and halted the AUD in its tracks, before a decisive move back up to the current levels.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still keen to see the AUD weaken off further to help boost exports, it could be argued that the AUD could fall further against the major currencies in the short-term. However, if the demand in China starts to increase for Australia’s raw materials and their economic data continues to improve, it may be that the AUD will find further market support.
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The Data from Australia of late has been very good with numbers from data releases like unemployment coming out much better than many analysts had anticipated. Prior to this the AUD was weakening at an alarming pace with GBP/AUD reaching over 1.90. What a big change we have seen in the space of a couple of months with the rate now at 1.79. For those of you that did not catch the rate at 1.90 and are holding out for this to come around again you may be waiting a while. Even with today’s unemployment figures for the UK coming out at 6.9% GBP/AUD has still not breached 1.80.
It seems that the RBA will not be cutting rates further which is what originally caused the devaluation in the currency in the first place. I do however think that the RBA will not want the currency to weaken any further so if you can trade above 1.80 you will be doing well.
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GBPAUD rates have spiked up over 2 cents compared to the lows at the beginning of the week. This can be attributed to two main reasons; firstly Sterling Strength was seen this morning when Unemployment was shown to have fallen under 7% to the lowest levels for years, secondly with the building escalation in Ukraine risk appetite is low resulting in a general exist from the AUD currency.
It is over all quite surprising but could be the start of a rally back up for the Pound. The Ukraine scenario will probably continue adding fuel to the fire. I also expect the Oz government to try to weaken their currency in the months ahead to help their exports. This is probably over the next 6 months meaning long term we could see rates climb back up over 1.80 and potentially revising the 1.90’s dreamed about over the last few years.
In the short term however timing a trade will remain important to getting the best price. Here we offer a pro-active service helping people achieve just that. So if you are looking at trading the GBPAUD pairing it is always worth getting in contact; at the very least you will have another view on the markets, best results are that you will see a saving compared to your current provider. The second however is by far the normal result! Contact myself – STEVE EAKINS – either via my personal email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling on the normal number +0044 (0) 1494 787478.
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The RBA Minutes published overnight suggest the Aussie is unlikely to appreciate much further in my view. The RBA warned that the recent strength in the Aussie Dollar over the last few months would be a drag on their efforts to rebalance the economy. Whilst I don’t feel this will result in any kind of interest rate change given the recent cuts (I think we will see a period of stability in that regard), it does suggest the RBA are taking a close interest in the strength of the Aussie Dollar. To this end I would not be surprised to see some other form of intervention should the AUD begin to appreciate particularly against the USD.
We still have UK inflation figures to be published this morning at 9.30 and the US equivalent at 1.30 so both of these could see some movement. Sterling will also be backed up by a reasonable showing in the jobs figures due out tomorrow morning in my view. On the Euro we have economic sentiment figures due out this morning, and wider European inflation figures out on Wednesday morning. German figures released late last week came in on target, but if the European figures as a whole don’t match this we could see Euro weakness. Inflation is becoming a worry for the ECB so the longer it remains low, the more likely we are to see some form of intervention by them. Who knows we may even get to see what these unprecedented measures are that Mario Draghi keeps hinting at!
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Sterling has fallen to a new fresh 6 month low against the Australian Dollar trading into the 1.77′s and making the pounds losses in the last 30 days to 4.2% a difference of $14,800 AUD on a £200k money transfer. With the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing their minutes overnight this volatility could well continue.
As you can see by timing your exchange significant savings can be made. The purpose of this website is to provide relevant information to help private and corporate clients with upcoming money transfers to arrange. As one of the authors on the site, my colleagues and I have personally helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange and would be happy to see what we can do for you. I work for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers and am confident I can undercut any price you have been offered by your bank or current provider.
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Australian Dollar exchange rates vs Sterling have kept up their recent strength following some very strong news from the jobs market. Last week Australian unemployment dropped unexpectedly from 6% to 5.8% which saw the exchange rates move by as much as 1% during the trading session post announcement.
Australian Dollar rates have recently traded into the 1.77 levels for the first time since November and with the RBA meeting minutes due tomorrow morning this could signal further strength. With last week’s Aussie unemployment figures so strong this could add further fuel to the fire and send GBPAUD rates down to 1.76 territory.
With the US Dollar relatively weak at the moment it could be argued that riskier currencies are being used as carry trades, which is another reason why we’re seeing such levels.
Chinese GDP is due out on Wednesday and as their growth heavily affects AUD exchange rates any positive signs could see the AUD strengthen further. My feeling is that even if UK announcements come out positively this will only hold the exchange rates at current levels rather than see much Sterling strength against the Aussie.
In the run up to Easter it is important to keep your currency broker up to date with when funds need to arrive so you’re not waiting those extra few days during the bank holiday. If you have a currency transfer to make and want to make sure it arrives on time and with bank beating exchange rates the feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
The Australian Dollar has gained by over 3% against the Pound over the last month. This can be put down to a number of reasons the largest of which has been the trade agreement between Australia and Japan, however there has been a lot of good data coming out of Australia which has certainly helped. Saying that however the Pound has also released impressive data that has slowed down the gains seen for the Australian Dollar. The data positive data from the Australian Government has included spending figures and unemployment which has fallen by a health amount. This has all helped to give AUD sellers a 6 month high!
I personally think that this trend could continue, there is still more data due from Australia next week which is expected to remain positive. This all points towards sellers being the only traders with a smile on their face, buyers however have probably now missed the multi-year high we reached earlier in the year. At the point we did suggest it would be worth taking advantage of.
Here we offer up to date information on the currency market plus access to award winning exchange rates allowing you to save thousands on your transfer. Now if you have been watching the markets and reading this blog with interest I hope you are feeling comfortable to get in contact when needed. You can contact myself or any of the contributors to this blog via the normal telephone number – 01494-787 478. Alternatively send me a direct email and I will get back to you personally. You can contact myself Steve Eakins via my personal email address – firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a good weekend!
A raft of impressive Australian data has helped lift the Aussie higher against most currencies. The recent improvement in the Unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.8% helped the currency to rise, as has the new trade agreement.
We are therefore at much improved rates to buy the pound with Aussies and anyone holding them to GBP would be better off moving sooner to avoid disappointment. This is a 6 month spike and longer term prospects still I feel favour the pound. Next week is a whole range of Chinese data (GDP, Retail Sales) which can move the Australian dollar. We also have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Minutes form their latest meeting so there is plenty to move the market.
Next week and the following week are shorter weeks due to the UK Bank Holidays so it may be wise to look at your transfers sooner, and to bear in mind extra banking days. For more information you can open a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here. For further information please feel free to contact me directly on email@example.com.