Monthly Archives: February 2012
The Pound has once again made gains against the USD over the start of this week as all seems relatively quiet on the European front (not for long though i’m sure) and global attitude towards risk appears to be increasing off the back of this.
In turn, this means that investors tend to pull funds out of their perceived ‘safer currencies’ such as the USD (gold is also priced in Dollars) decreasing the demand for this currency and also making it cheaper to buy.
We have also seen the ‘riskier currencies’ such as the South African Rand, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar make gains from this as demand for them increases.
My view is that more European troubles are sure to come to front page news again it is just a case of when…. As and when this does happen we should see things turn around again… Those looking to sell Dollars or Sell AED Dirhams (pegged to the Dollar) will have a selling opportunity and those buying AUD, NZD or ZAR will have a great buying opportunity (compared to recent times anyway) however the European Central bank would all be great poker players as they are all very good at keeping their cards close to their chest so we may have a little wait on our hands first.
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As demand returns to the major currencies again, in particular the Euro, the Australian Dollar has suffered. In the last two weeks the GBPAUD has improved by over 2 cents trading as high as 1.4891 on mid-market during the morning session. During the last week of the month typically little data is released so expect the next couple of days to be rangebound by a cent for GBPAUD.
On Wednesday Australian January Retail Sales figures are due out with expectation of 0.3% month on month so anything worse could see GBPAUD head towards the 1.50 resistance levels.
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Following the news of the Greek bailout deal I firmly believe this may continue to support the strength of the so called ‘riskier’ assets such as the NZD, ZAR and AUD. The reason they are perceived as riskier currencies is the fact they are so heavily dependent on commodity prices and the AUD in particular heavily dependent on the mining sector and the demand from countries such as China for raw materials. With China hot on the heals of the US in becoming the worlds largest economy there is little sign of this demand for raw mat3erials from falling and I feel this is only going to lead to further strength for the AUD. There is the argument that the the Reserve Bank of Australia may intervene to artificially devalue the AUD as Australian exports are becoming less and less competitive, however I think this is unlikely. I do believe we will see an interest rate cut within the next few months but I believe the market is expecting this and it is unlikely to have a major impact on the value for the AUD. For this reason I see little movement other than continued strength in the short term and would expect a move towards 1.45 for GBP/AUD and 1.24 on EUR/AUD.
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At 930am this morning the MPC announced that 7 members voted for further QE of £50bn and two further members wanted an increase to £75bn. This has sent Sterling Exchange rates tumbling across the board but they haven’t dropped as much as expected against the Australian Dollar. At the time of writing the GBPAUD exchange rate has only fallen 0.3% compared to the previous day close which indicates that Australia may have more concerns over the Greek bailout which has seemingly dominated the headlines over the last few weeks. For more up to date information feel free to email me Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
The Reserve Bank of Australia last night confirmed they will not be cutting rates soon but have certainly left the door open for such a possibility. This has led to the Aussie weakening slightly in early morning trading making a break above 1.48 for the first time since 10th February. This is providing a good opportunity for anyone with an immediate requirement.
The RBA quoted the Eurozone crisis as the biggest threat to the Australian economy so the overnight news that a Greek deal has been struck (which was probably priced into the rate) hasn’t caused major movement. As it was widely expected the markets haven’t reacted but we could well see some movement later today as the European and US markets open.
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The Australian Dollar strengthened to its highest level in over a week as talks of the Greek bailout are due to resume this afternoon. One of the points of interest is that Greek GDP needs to be below 129% by 2020 but as yet this has not been finalised. If the talks go positively we could see the AUD$ continue to gain as confidence returns to more riskier assets.The rescue plan would also write off 100bn euros of debt, with private lenders accepting up to a 70% reduction in what Greece owes them. I anticipate that the resolution will be reached but it’ll take another few days before we receive the answer that markets are looking for. Watch this space for more news on the Australian Dollar Forecast or contact me directly Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
The Reserve Bank of Australia state that they will be keeping a close eye on the strength of the Aussie Dollar
As the Australian Dollar continues to strengthen to all time highs against sterling exchange rates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stated that they will be closely monitoring the strength of the Aussie Dollar against the Australian economy.
For those of you that require buying AUD these comments may bring a small glimmer of hope because if the RBA feel that the strength of the Aussie will effect their economy (exports) then they may in the future look to artificially weaken the economy like the Swiss national bank has done in the past. They could do this by selling off billions of Aussies or by reducing their interest rates.
If you have Aussie Dollars to sell to buy any of the major currencies (GBP, EUR, GBP) then now may be a fantastic time to maximise your exchange. If you would like an idea on the level of savings that we can offer over the high street banks and to get our expert opinion on the outlook for any major currency pair then please feel free to contact me Ben Amrany at email@example.com.
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Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker. Please do feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and let me know what your requirement is and we can have an informal chat about the options that are available to you.
After a few days of losses for the AUD the currency strengthened as news of the Greek austerity measures being passed hit the currency market. The news helped to boost more riskier assets including the Australian Dollar. Whilst the domestic ecnonomy down under continues to thrive the currency is likely to stay at these levels for quite some time. Tomorrow final plans for the Greek austerity measures are to be decided and the news about whether or not the next tranche of funding will be made available from the EU bailout fund to the tune of €130bn. Happy Valentines!
For any more up to date information feel free to email me Tom Holian email@example.com
Sterling has touched 1.48 against the Australian Dollar this morning following the news that the Greeks appear to have agreed, at least at the moment, a proposal concerning further austerity cuts.
Also, news from China that production is slowing has caused a little negative stir among the resources sector down under. Global investors will continue to remain nervy until the Greek bailout plan has been fully approved and implemented. The date of March 20th is the next time Greece will need to make a payment to pay off their next round of debts in the region of €15bn. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto announced lower profits than expected which also caused Sterling to gain back some ground against the AUD. Many investors are hoping that GBPAUD may hit 1.50 sometime next week…watch this space!
For further updates keep reading or alternatively send me a email with your specific question Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org As a specialist foreign exchange broker I am confident in being able to offer you better exchange rates than your bank or current currency broker.
Yesterday the Australian Dollar continued its assault on the currency market gaining over 0.5% against Sterling bringing levels close to 1.46. It has also seen strong moves against the Euro currently sitting at 1.2350. Earlier this week expectation was for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates and the decision to keep rates on hold surprised the market a little and the AUD gained subsequently. I personally feel the RBA will initiate a round of cuts in the coming months, if anything to ease the pressure on the countries exports. Regular readers will be aware that should a country or zone cut rates this would tend to decrease the value of that respective currency as it makes it less attractive as an investment opportunity and therefore demand falls and so to the price. Should this scenario occur we could see levels for the AUD weaken, the problem is this could be months down the line.
Anyone with a more immediate requirement, particularly anyone with an interest in AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR then today’s interest meetings from the Bank of England (BofE) and European Central Bank (ECB) will be key to short term moves. It is expected the BofE will keep rates on hold at 0.5% and an outside chance the ECB will cut rates (more likely to hold in my opinion) however certainly from the pounds point of view the important aspect will be the decision with regards to quantitative easing. Analysts have priced in a chance of a £50bn injection from the BofE and this has been reflected in the recent losses seen for the pound – should we see an extension expect further losses, a hold however and we may see a spike for the pound.
For those with an interest in the Euro, I expect the ECB to keep rates on hold however the post decision conference from Mario Draghi (head of the ECB) will be interesting and give insight to future directions for AUD/EUR. To me the key factor for this pairing is still the ongoing Greece debacle, should an agreement be reached (I personally think it will) I would expect a surge to the AUD as investors confidence increases and demand for the higher return offered by the Aussie become sought after.
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