Daily Archives: January 5, 2017
GBP AUD is in for a rocky few months with a huge amount of news now fast approaching. Not only will Brexit be the dominant theme as far as the pound is concerned but the Australian dollar will be very heavily impacted following President-elect Trump’s inauguration on Friday 20th January.
Brexit in my view will be the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates as we approach 31st March, the deadline by which UK Prime Minister Theresa May will formally give notice to the EU that Britain is withdrawing from the European Union. The Supreme Court ruling on whether Theresa May must consult Parliament before invoking Article 50 is expected imminently and will give new direction for the pound against the Australian dollar.
Should Theresa May lose the appeal then the pound is likely to make some short term gains as the prospect of a soft Brexit will appear to be more a more likely route to go. However if the appeal is won by the government, which cannot be ruled out then the pound is likely to take very sharp losses against all of the major currencies. Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see some good opportunities in the coming weeks could see some good developments following political news.
Considering it was reported today that disgraced Prime Minister Tony Blair is looking to contribute £10 million to keep Britain within the single market it certainly shows that forces are at work and this is all likely to become politically explosive. I would not rule out a general election which in my view would wipe as much as 5% off sterling’s value in this scenario – An excellent proposition for anyone needing to sell dollars!
However the fate of the Aussie will largely be determined by changes in US economic and global policy. With a new President expected to make some seismic changes to the status quo the Australian dollar is one currency that will be heavily impacted. The prospective three US interest rate hikes in 2017 could weaken the Aussie although this is more likely to be a gradual change as we learn more once the new President has been inaugurated.
If you would like further information on the Australian dollar and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com
Buying Australian Dollar rates of exchange expecting improvement in the medium term (Joshua Privett)
Sterling holders with an interest in buying Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered the most so far in 2017, with a loss of 3 cents on GBP/AUD recorded within the past 48 hours.
The Australian Dollar has gained some momentum after suffering during the festive period, where unstable currencies tied to the performance of the commodities markets, such as the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar tend to under-perform. This so called ‘Santa rally’ which tends to benefit safe-haven currencies is now over, and the AUD is enjoying greater value through increased demand.
A more medium-term look at Sterling exchange rates still sees potential opportunity for Australian Dollar buyers between the 12-17 January when it is expected the Supreme Court decision on Parliament’s role in leaving the EU will be decided.
The heavy expectation is for the Supreme Court to uphold the Judicial Court’s decision in November to allow Parliament the vote on triggering Article 50, which contributed to the strong Sterling boost that month when GBP/AUD rose above the 1.60 mark once more – and is why most major financial institutions expect a mirroring of this Sterling strength in January.
In the shorter-term, we can look to economic data for clues on forecasts for Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates.
The key piece of data this week will be Friday’s unemployment figures in the US, which will send ripples throughout the financial markets, and if last month’s result was anything to go by, will likely present further opportunities for Australian Dollar buyers.
With both a positive short and medium term view for GBP/AUD improvement, anyone looking to sell Australian Dollars (AUD/GBP) should be wise to look at their options to protect an upcoming or imminent exchange into Sterling in order to maximise your gains from the recent improvements, and avoid any increase in expense for your transfer moving forward.
Conversely, with a foreign currency purchase later on in the year would be best placed to monitor the markets over the next few weeks and be in a position to move fairly quickly.
If you do not wish to leave yourself exposed to the potential impact on the Pound in the run up to the triggering of Article 50 at the end of March, can secure an exchange rate there and then if any tempting opportunities emerge, whether for an immediate transfer or one planned for the future – it is a simple process to pre-book your currency using the exchange rates available that day.
I strongly recommend that if you have a planned transfer either to buy or sell AUD before April this year, you should contact me whilst markets are relatively quieter to begin the year on firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling 01494 787 478 and asking the reception team to be put through to my line (Joshua). I will respond as soon as I am able to discuss a strategy for your transfer to ensure tempting levels are seized quickly, and that your upcoming transfer is protected from any prospective dips in the marketplace.
Furthermore, I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation should save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I am happy to provide a quote for your transfer to demonstrate this.
I have had quite a few new clients recently who said their previous broker suggested they had to move immediately with the formal Brexit proceedings looming, but in this market, as has been proven in recent months, there are still heavy opportunities for foreign currency buyers even in the next few weeks.