Monthly Archives: February 2017
Big day ahead for Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)
Overnight we have the release of both Australian GDP data as well Chinese manufacturing data which are both likely to cause a stir for Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates.
Australian GDP data for the fourth quarter is expected to show growth of 1.9% year on year and 0.7% quarter on quarter. Australia has now avoided recession for over 25 years and holds the record globally only second to the Netherlands. Therefore, the news is likely in my opinion to be rather positive which could result in AUD strength.
Chinese manufacturing data has been relatively strong recently and Trump’s campaign threat of imposing a 20% on Chinese goods coming into the US has seemingly been forgotten.
Therefore, this is another reason why I think tonight’s data could be positive so if both data announcements come out as I expect we could see GBPAUD exchange rates drop below 1.60 on the Interbank level.
On Thursday Australian Trade Balance data is due to be published and again my expectation is for a positive announcement based on recent good news down under. We also see the release of both Import and Export data on the same day so overall I expect a strong end to the week for the Australian Dollar.
The Pound is still struggling with the uncertainty surrounding Article 50 and until we get any clarity as to what may happen I think the Pound will remain under pressure.
If you’re looking at at moving currency over the next few weeks and concerned about what may happen to the Australian Dollar it may be worth organising a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that I can not only offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.
If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Australian growth figures expected to be extremely strong on Wednesday (Daniel Wright)
Wednesday sees the release of GDP figures in Australia with expectations of a fairly good jump in month on month figures and a slight improvement in year on year levels.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures essentially measure the growth of an economy over a specific period of time, and should these figures come out as positive like they are expected to then we may see another bout of Australian Dollar strength overnight.
It does appear that the Australian economy is heading in the right direction once again following a fairly average run of form, and with Australian interest rates still remaining extremely favourable compared to many other economies within the world, the Australian Dollar is still a key candidate for carry trading.
Carry trading is where an investor borrows money from a currency with a very low interest rate and shifts it over to a currency with a much higher one, making their return on the difference. When the AUD is used a lot for carry trading it can strengthen due to the age old rule of supply and demand, so I feel the Australian Dollar will continue to remain fairly strong as long as the economic data backs it up and interest rates around the world do not change too much.
If you have Australian Dollars to either buy or indeed sell in the coming days, week and months then it is well worth having an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side, that not only offers you competitive rates of exchange but that can help you every step of the way in this challenging market too.
If you feel that you would like some assistance of this nature and you would like this kind of help then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to call you personally to discuss the various options available to you. You can also call our trading floor on 0044 1494 725353 (ask for Daniel Wright) we are U.K based but can help you no matter where you are in the world on sums from £5000 to multi-million Dollar transactions.
Does the strength of the Australian economy justify GBP/AUD levels? (Daniel Johnson)
Potential RBA Rate Hike
The majority of data releases from Australia have been very positive of late and it is proving difficult for the pound to gain any significant ground, in fact as I write GBP/AUD only sits just above 1.62. Despite rumours of a potential interest hike I would be surprised to see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) make any alterations to the rate.
Australia is heavily reliant on China buying it’s raw materials. The Australian dollar is already proving expensive, it would not be wise to jeopardise trade with one of the largest economy’s in the world. If the price of raw materials became too expensive there are many other countries ready to fill Australia’s boots.
Brexit Update
The Brexit bill is currently in possession of The House of Lords after getting approval from the House of Commons. It has now reached the stage where the House of Lords will put forward any potential changes to the bill. Theresa May purposefully made the bill extremely brief in an attempt to avoid any significant changes. It is her wish to get the bill passed through quickly and efficiently for her own hard Brexit agenda.
It would be surprising to see any major changes as there would be public out cry if the triggering of article 50 was delayed due to any amendments made by the House of Lords. There is one area that needs to be clarified, the situation on the rights of current EU citizens residing in the UK post Brexit. If an amendment is made, the bill will have to be returned to the House of Commons for approval. We could see a potential ping-pong situation which would be no help for the pound if it occurs.
GBP/AUD Outlook
Personally, I feel the pound is undervalued against the Aussie. In September 2015, GBP/AUD was above 2.20, before the announcement of a referendum. The next few months will be extremely difficult to predict due to the Brexit situation, however once Article 50 is invoked I would expect Sterling to rally once trade negotiations become more apparent.
If you have transfer involving GBP/AUD it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. It is extremely difficult to maximise your return in such volatile conditions. I am in a position where I can confidently say I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I specialise in property transfer, so if you are buying or selling in Australia be sure to get in touch. I will ensure the whole transfer process moves as smoothly and stress free as possible. If you let me know the basics of your requirement eg the currency you are trading, size of transfer and your time scale I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs with no obligation to trade.
I look forward to working as your broker, feel free to get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.
Daniel Johnson
Further losses for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar expected (Tom Holian)
The Pound has made some limited gains vs the Australian Dollar recently but ultimately is struggling to break much higher.
There are a number of different reasons as to why the Australian Dollar is performing so well against the Pound at the moment and I think we’ll see GBPAUD rates fall below 1.60 in the near future.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has made it clear that there will be no interest rate change for the time being and as interest rates are so high compared to any other leading economy we are continuing to see money invested in Australia.
Commodities have also been improving other the last year with the value of iron ore rising by over 50% in that same time. With iron ore such a huge part of the economy this has also kept the AUD strong against Sterling.
The Pound is also struggling against most major currencies and with next month due to see the triggering of Article 50 we could be in for further uncertainty ahead and a loss of confidence for Sterling.
Indeed, it is not yet clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and the lack of clarity is causing problems for the Pound.
The UK economy has actually been performing relatively well but recently we have seen two sets of data that should cause real concern. UK Average Earnings have started to fall and with inflation on the rise this means the UK consumer will ultimately have less money to spend and this was clearly demonstrated with the release of UK retail sales for January which saw the lowest level in three years.
On Wednesday we see the release of Chinese manufacturing data and Australia’s commodity index for February and if both come out well I think we’ll see the Pound fall against the Australian Dollar.
If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like more information or for a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then do not hesitate to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of offering you competitive rates as well as help with the timing of your transfer.
Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Selling Australian Dollars in Brexit Run Up (James Lovick)
The pound remains on the back foot against the Australian dollar with rates close to a one month low for this pair. GBP AUD is now sitting at 1.62 and its future direction is less clear.
The pound has been supported against a number of currencies despite approaching the month of March when UK Prime Minister Theresa May has made clear Article 50 will be invoked to give formal notice that Britain will be leaving the European Union.
The Australian dollar however remains in a strong position with the rise in the price of oil and other commodities which is seeing this currency remain buoyant.
Things could be about to change in March though as we approach the next US Fed meeting where there is a strong chance that interest rates will be hiked by 0.25%. An increase from 0.75% to 1% will really highlight that the Fed mean business especially considering that there are likely to be another two hikes later this year. The effect of this is likely to see the Aussie weaken as funds leave the riskier currency and return to the safety of the US dollar where interest rates are going up rather than down.
The month of March looks set to be particularly interesting for GBP AUD with Brexit developments and any changes from the Fed. Those clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars in these coming weeks would be wise to look for a suitable spike in this volatile period.
UK data is light as we end the week although Purchasing Managers Index data from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors.,
If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk
Sterling Struggling to Make Significant Impact Against the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)
GBP/AUD rates are marooned under 1.65 at present, with the Pound struggling to make any sustained impact against the AUD.
Every time Sterling takes a step forward, another headline or rumour seems to sap investor confidence and the we see it snap back.
The currency markets continue to brace themselves this week for for further developments regarding the UK’s upcoming Brexit, with members of the House of Lords discussing the bill before it heads back to the House of Commons for final approval. Although there is likely to be little resistance to the result of June’s referendum, any amendments could cause a delay in the triggering of Article 50.
With UK Prime Minister Theresa May sticking stringently to her March deadline, any delay to this timeline would likely cause further uncertainty amongst investors and the Pound could come under further pressure against the AUD and a move back under 1.60 is not out of the question.
The final decision by Parliament is likely to have a significant impact on GBP/AUD exchange rates over the coming weeks, as investors risk appetite will be dependent on how smoothly the UK can facilitate its exit from the EU and what deals, if any, are left in place with our closest trade partners the EU.
The AUD has benefited from a run of positive economic data and the uncertainty surround the UK economy at present. However, due to the fact the AUD is a commodity based currency and as such relies heavily on its export trade, in particular the export of its raw materials to China, any global slowdown in this sector will hit their economy hard and the AUD would likely lose value as a result.
If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.
If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk
Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates see drop this afternoon (Joshua Privett)
Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates have had a roller-coaster day on the markets, and much of this has been allocated to new speculation about the potential for a rate hike in the US.
Whilst it may seem alien to be discussing events in the US with the focus of this post being on GBP/AUD the connection is very visible.
The value of the Australian Dollar is linked to its demand, and one reason why the Dollar has enjoyed much better demand in the last year has been because of its relatively high interest rates compared to other currencies.
There is an obvious attraction for their 1.5% returns compares to the UK’s paltry 0.25%.
However, demand is based on the global picture of currency, rather than just between the Pound and the Australian Dollar. Much of the recent movement on the exchange rates has been governed by a potential interest rate hike in the US.
Given that this is a much more stable currency than the Australian Dollar, some investors have been selling off their Dollars there in favour of the US version.
However, the potential for an interest rate hike in the US is now coming into question. Deutsche Bank are now calling into question the potential for a hike in March, and as a result, we are currently seeing the Dollar gain strength.
Whether this will be proven or be another wrong call from the heights of the banking world are difficult to say. This is a market which can change rapidly, and as such it is imperative to be in a position to move quickly.
I am on hand in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as helping you to benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible – you can reach me on jjp@currencies.co.uk
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.
