Monthly Archives: June 2017

Sterling rises ahead of UK growth figures later this morning, will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

Despite some gloomy data out of the UK recently along with a Prime Minister coming under increasing pressure, the Pound has climbed gradually throughout the week.

There have been thin volumes as well as small trading ranges in what’s an uneventful marketplace by usual standards.

The main event this week has been the Queen’s Speech which was passed by a small majority of 14. May will be relieved to have passed this test even if only just after the snap election election she called this year failed to produce the intended outcome.

There could be further movement for the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate this morning as at 9.30am there will be UK GDP figures released which will measure the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy. This measure of economic output is likely to be followed closely as economic data is now playing a larger role in Sterling sentiment after politics has dominated since the Brexit.

The expectation is for a figure of 2% annually so expect to see any deviations from this figure to impact GBP exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling Fights Back Following Carney’s UK Rate Hike Comments (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound finally made some inroads against the AUD over the past 48 hours, with GBP/AUD hitting 1.6950 at today’s high.

The Pound has gained almost two cents, with those clients holding Sterling have BoE governor Mark Carney to thank for the recent improvement.

Carney surprised the markets by suggesting a rise in UK interest rates was not being discounted, despite comments he made last week which seemed to dampen expectation of a hike.

He even went as far as to suggest that it would be necessary, should UK business’s shrug off Brexit uncertainty and raise investment and wages. He stopped as far as giving a time-frame on any prospective rate hike and whilst his comments may be diluted over the coming days, the initial impact was certainly a positive one for the Pound.

Today’s move brought some much-needed respite to those clients holding Sterling, after watching its value decrease over recent weeks. A combination of the disastrous election results as far as market perception was concerned and the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations, has dragged the Pound’s value down investor’s risk appetite shrunk alongside the UK’s economic growth forecasts.

Despite today’s improvements, I would be wary about assuming the current trend is here to stay.  With a wave of support growing for the Corbyn led Labour party and infighting amongst the Tories, further political unrest in likely and this in turn is likely to heap pressure on the UK economy and ultimately the Pound over the coming weeks.

UK Brexit negotiator David Davis remains unsurprisingly bullish but confirmed that a strong majority would have given him a better starting, as to which to enter into negotiations with the EU.

For those clients holding the AUD, I feel is likely to find some protection under 1.70 but with the current market unpredictability, any exposed positions could be hit hard by a change in market sentiment.

Being a commodity based currency the AUD relies heavily on global growth remaining strong and whilst the current climate is pushing investors towards the AUD and its higher yielding interest rates, any slowdown in its export sector will hit the Australian economy hard and the AUD will almost certainly suffer as a result.

A strong AUD relies heavily on the export of Australia’s vast supply of raw materials to China, so any clients looking to buy or sell AUD should have a strong interest in Australia’s monthly trade balance figures.

Whilst so much instability remains, those clients holding both currencies need to ask themselves whether they are prepared to risk further losses, in order to make any gains.

Personally, I feel that the pound will be restricted in terms of how far it can go and in my opinion, based on the current market uncertainty, the downside risks currently outweigh the upside gains.

For this reason, I would be looking to protect the current levels, rather than a gamble on any substantial up gain

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Next week to be a busy one for Australian Dollar exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Next week we have a flurry of economic data which will have an impact on Australian Dollar exchange rates after a fairly quiet end to the trading month.

On Tuesday we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision, shortly followed by the interest rate statement. At the last interest rate decision we saw no changes to rates and on top of this we also had comments that the RBA would more than likely not be looking to cut interest rates in the near future. The reason for this is to avoid adding to the current asset bubble they are witnessing and I would be surprised if that stance has changed.

It will be interesting  to see if the general view going forward has altered at all and should there be any hint towards the RBA leaning towards a cut in interest rates then we may see the Australian Dollar weaken a little.

Later on in the week we have the release of Australian import and export data early on Thursday morning, and this will also have an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to exports being so key for the Australian economy.

We had a report released earlier this week suggesting that there actually is a rather high debt burden in Australia at present, with household debt rising extremely rapidly which may be a concern for Australia later down the line.

My personal opinion is that I can see a small period of Australian Dollar weakness coming up as there does appear to be a few different matters out there that may lead to the Australian Dollar getting a little weaker.

If you are in the position where you may need to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you have an experienced currency broker on your side. You are more than welcome to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be able to help you, both in terms of securing the very best exchange rate and timing your transaction. This can make the difference of thousands of Dollars.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak with you personally to explain exactly how I can be of assistance.

GBPAUD breaks through 1.70 (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks the pound has been losing ground against the Australian dollar and exchange rates have fallen from 1.75 to 1.67. However today Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has given Australian dollar buyers something to smile about, as UK interest rates could be hiked in the upcoming months, which would provide strength for sterling as investors look for higher returns on their investments.

The Governor announced today that the MPC will be debating interest rates in the upcoming months and a rate rise all depends on business investment, wage growth, Brexit negotiations and costs for labour.

Off the back of the positive news for the pound GBPAUD has now breached 1.70. To put this into monetary terms the 3 cent improvement this week will save clients £10,000 when purchasing 1,000,000 Australian dollars.

Looking further ahead I expect the pound to continue the upward trend for the remainder of the week and into next week as UK Prime Minister Theresa May should be able to put the election behind her when MPs vote on the queens speech later this week.

The leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn has stated he will try to make amendments to the Queens speech but in reality I can’t see any conservative MP voting against their own party, therefore this story should be over by this time next week.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

GBP/AUD moves to week high at 1.69 level (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/AUD rate has moved up to a week high despite a volatile period for Sterling as the political scene takes centre stage. Brexit talks are dictating the movement for Sterling and any sudden good news could start to see the rate move above the 1.70 level.

Australian Economy Strengthening

Despite a slow start to the year, which revealed low Retail slows and Housing construction falling the Australian economy seems to be picking up. Most of the weak 1st Quarter GDP can be put down to poor weather on the East coast of Australia having an enormous consequence on consumer behaviour and construction conditions. However now that Australia is through the storm business conditions appear to be improving with confidence once again returning.

In the longer term what this could mean for the Aussie is continued strength. Australia earlier this year took the record from the Netherlands for the longest consecutive time of never falling into recession. This is no mean feat and despite external economic pressures weighing down on the economy the condition are positive. China and the general commodity market dictate how Australia fairs from a trade perspective and as the markets have settled so has the Aussie.

Aussie sellers are certainly in a positive predicament and are unlikely to see selling levels much below 1.65 in my opinion. However any upticks for Aussie buyers using Sterling should consider the low 1.70’s as a buying level. The market is currently poised to go either way and with the UK struggling with uncertainty anything could change.

If you do have a requirement to change currency I’m confident I would be able to help you execute a transfer. If you would like to discuss the forecast above please feel free to email me at brf@currencies.co.uk. Working for a currency brokerage I am able to set rate alerts to make sure you’re trading at the right time at a level you’re happy with.

Political uncertainty plagues the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Theresa May’s call for a snap election has caused severe pound weakness. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and this is definitely the main catalyst for Sterling weakness at present. Many are uncertain how the Conservative- DUP coalition will pan out and the majority of the general public are furious with the £1bn of tax payers money to be handed to the DUP in return for their votes.

The PM’s job is on the line and until we have a a stable government the pound has little chance of a recovery. As usual politicians seem to be far too concerned  with their own agenda rather than  trying to benefit the country. By ousting the  PM I would expect investors to deem this as yet more uncertainty in regards to the political situation and the pound to fall further.

Let us also not forget the Brexit negotiations, this will be a key factor in GBP/AUD buoyancy levels moving forward. Despite the rumors talks could be elongated, it is important to remember the scale of UK imports, particularly  for German cars. It will be detrimental to all involved to play hard ball with the UK.

I am still of the opinion the pound is undervalued against the Aussie. Let us remember it was not too long ago GBP/AUD sat above 2.20. Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese could prove to be a problem. Growth, although still impressive is still slowing in China and this has repercussions on the Australian economy. Keep a close eye on Iron ore prices, this is the largest export for Australia and has the power to influence Australian dollar value.

There is also the housing price concern, with over inflated house prices in high wage areas. Some consider this to be unsustainable, although if foreign investors are still prepared to pay the these prices it may not be the case. We only have to look at London as an example.

Overall, although Aussie dollar sellers may see further gains short term. I would not necessarily procrastinate. It is an incredible time to purchase Sterling.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference, so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

AUD Boosted on Higher Commodity Prices (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has had a good run this week having made some inroads against most of the major currencies. The support has largely come from a rise in commodity prices namely iron ore and oil. The Australian dollar which is classified as a commodity currency generally perform well when commodity prices are rising.

A key interest rate decision from the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) next week is likely to contribute to the direction of travel for the Aussie dollar. The RBA have held interest rates at the record low of 1.5% since last August and there isn’t much sign of that changing now. Recent concerns surrounding consumer debt and also consumers who have overborrowed for property purchases are helping shape monetary policy within the central bank. It is unlikely the RBA will want to cut in fear that it will exacerbate the problem of asset bubbles. As such there is likely to be no change at the next meeting and this could see the dollar strengthen that little bit further. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see a small window of opportunity after the next meeting if the rhetoric remain the same.

GBP AUD

GBP AUD should see a volatile end to the week as a result of political developments in the UK. An agreement between the conservative government and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has now been made as of yesterday afternoon although the market reaction has so far been very limited.

Thursday sees the House of Commons vote on the Queens speech and this is where things could become more interesting. The vote should go through without a hitch in which case the pound is likely to rally. However Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said that he will try and vote down the Queens speech which cause fireworks on the currency markets if he was able to do so in this unlikely scenario.

A minority conservative government in power could help see GBP AUD break back over 1.70 in the short term. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later as the political impact should not be underestimated.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD reach back to 1.70?

If you are holding pounds and looking to buy Australian dollars it has been a stressful period with the pound failing to spike as many had predicted on the back of the UK election. There was a belief the pound would rally to perhaps over 1.80, the Aussie having been on the back foot as Chinese data was failing to live up to expectation. Lately however the Chinese data is looking much better which, in conjunction with the pound sliding as the hung parliament divides opinion over the British pound, has seen the GBPAUD rate slip too. If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars making some plans around the next twist and turn is crucial since the current market is not pointing clearly in either direction.

We offer detailed insight and strategy to clients looking to move large volumes of currency around the world generally following property transactions or business transfers. This is because when moving such large volumes of say 50,000 GBP up to multi-millions a small difference in the exchange rate can mean a huge difference in the amount of currency you receive. Getting the timing and planning right is crucial to getting the best deals on the rates.

For clients looking towards the GBPAUD exchange rate pairing looking for better rates this week could offer some fresh opportunities with the latest fresh news over the UK’s political situation and also news relating to the Chinese economy. Since the Chinese economy is so closely linked to the Australian dollar keeping up to date with information here is crucial to getting the best rates. If you have a transfer to make this week has a number of releases which could see the GBPAUD rate move say 1 – 2 cents presenting a quick opportunity for savvy buyers and sellers!

For more information on the best rates and how to manage your exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. If there is anything I can help with please don’t hesitate to contact me directly.

Buying and selling Australian Dollar rates finally expected to re-emerge from political limbo (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has been in a very visible limbo since the inconclusive election result, with Australian Dollar buyers and sellers waiting for news on where rate trends are expected to go moving forward.

That is not to say the interim period has been lacklustre and boring. Far from it. It is simply that economics has taken over in the meantime.

This has been the saga of interest rates which has been a dominant factor in currency value since last year, with the US being the first developed country to raise interest rates since the financial crisis.

Public disagreements between the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and members of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee over whether to raise interest rates in the UK or not has seen the Pound behaving like a yo-yo in recent weeks, but with little overall change.

The deciding factor will be the official formation of a minority Government next week, with official voting on their manifesto to go through Thursday-Friday to conclude the month of June.

The fact that any resolution seems likely to help the Pound given the hints noted recently on currency markets should be in the forefront of anyone with a Australian Dollar requirement’s thought process. The question at this point arguably is just how much the Pound will rise up against the Australian Dollar next week, and not if. 

In this context Australian Dollar buyers do not seem to have the same level of urgency as Australian Dollar sellers. You can secure exchange rates for AUD/GBP beofre interbank rates are expected rise back above 1.70 by contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk. Even if your requirement is not until the end of the year, you can pre-book your currency at current attractive levels using the tools available at a specialist currency brokerage. There is not additional cost to pre-book.

I strongly recommend that if you have a currency requirement to buy Australian Dollars to contact me again on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your AUD return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you a significant sum on a prospective transfer.

Will the Tories agree a deal with the DUP and the impact on GBPAUD exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now a year on from the Brexit vote when the British public voted in favour of leaving the European Union and as yet we are still a long long way off from a clear vision as to what things will look like in the future.

Theresa May has been in Brussels this week and has suggested that the UK would look to guarantee rights of EU nationals living in the UK of which there are over 3 million. This is clearly a step in the right direction but the EU has not confirmed any reciprocal arrangement.

At the moment the UK political landscape is extremely uncertain as the Tories have not set an agreement between themselves and the DUP and with the vote of the recent Queen’s Speech due to take place next week if a deal is not reach then things could go wrong very quickly for the Tories.

This is not good news for the Pound as we are still in a hung parliament and it is now over a fortnight since the election result. I personally think a deal is coming and this is likely to happen next week. In my opinion I think this will help the Pound recover some of its losses against the Australian Dollar.

However, I think the gains will be short lived as the Brexit talks are likely to be long and protracted. Therefore, if you’re looking at buying Australian Dollars keep a close eye on what is happening politically and get ready to move quickly if a deal is reached.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of being able to offer you better rates when buying currency as well as helping you with various contract types.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk