Monthly Archives: November 2017

Pound hits best rate to buy Australian Dollars in 2017 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has now hit its best rate to buy Australian Dollars all year as it looks as though we could be seeing some positive movement behind the scenes with the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

The Pound has finally broken through the resistance barrier of 1.75 and has touched 1.78 earlier this morning but has started to slip back as we see a little bit of short term profit taking.

The figures that have been suggested are approx €50bn as part of the divorce bill although this figure will probably be more like €100bn as the UK may have to pay for its liabilities that it has committed to previously.

The good news for anyone holding Sterling is that the talks appear to be going in the right direction at the moment and this has really helped to improve the outlook for Sterling exchange rates particularly against the commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

Tomorrow morning brings with it the latest RBA Commodity Index which is an early indicator of export price changes. We have seen this fall in recent months so any further slowdown could see GBPAUD exchange rates go in an upwards direction towards the end of the week.

The rate to buy Australian Dollars will clearly be impacted by what is happening with the Brexit and if the discussions continue to go in the right direction we could see the market continue to improve in Sterling’s favour.

With the next EU summit due to take place in mid-December this could be the critical event that will impact GBPAUD exchange rates so expect to see a lot of volatility.

With GBPAUD exchange rates already rather volatile in the last few weeks it may be worth removing the risk of what may happen to rates by buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

 

Pound spikes to a 1-year high after Brexit Bill breakthrough! (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has spiked in the early hours of this morning, hitting a new 1-year high against the Aussie Dollar as the Pound gains across the board of major currency pairs.

The reason for the spike is due to the much speculated Brexit Bill figure apparently being agreed between UK and European counterparts, with the figure reportedly being around £50bn. The cost is to cover accrued European debts and liabilities over the past 44 years of EU membership, and despite being such a high figure the market reaction has been a boost to Sterling’s value.

The market belief is that this Brexit Bill agreement is now likely to pave the way for trade negotiations to begin between the UK and the EU, therefore reducing the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit or Hard Brexit as many have labelled it.

With regards to the GBP to AUD rate, I would now expect to see the rate hit 1.80 as opposed to 1.70 next as should Brexit negotiations progress I expect to see the Pound continue to climb as confidence returns to the markets.

Economic data out of the UK is quiet for the remainder of the week, which means the GBP/AUD pair may continue to be driven by sentiment which favours the Pound after this latest Brexit update.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Factors influencing GBPAUD exchange rates

In recent weeks the pound has been making considerable gains against the Australian dollar for a few reasons. The Reserve Bank of Australia more often than not have been giving dovish statements in regards to future interest rate hikes. The Governor has said that it’s likely the next decision will be to hike however this may be at the end of 2018 or even 2019.

The US federal reserve have been hinting towards raising interest rates in December which would mean US and Australian interest rate would be the same. Speculators have and will flock to the US dollar instead of the Aussie as its seen as a safer currency and therefore less risk. Less demand for the Australian dollar means it becomes cheaper to buy.

Deadline day is getting closer for the UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The EU Commission will meet on the 14th and 15th December to discuss whether trade negotiations can begin between the UK and EU. Reports are suggesting that the divorce bill and EU citizens rights could be agreed but the sticking point could still be the Irish border.

Personally I expect the Australian dollar could have a tough end to the year and major sell offs of Australian dollars into US dollars. Couple that with positive news from the Brexit negotiations, I expect GBPAUD exchange rates could push towards the 1.80 mark.

If you are trading GBPAUD this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage, I would strongly recommend you compare rates as I am confident I will be able to offer you additional savings with your transfer. All you need to do is email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

GBP AUD Finds Support at 1.75 (James Lovick)

GBP AUD Exchange rates are back up over 1.75 again for this pair creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The Aussie dollar has come under pressure of late for a number of reasons. The dovish commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia means that although the next interest rate movement is more likely to be up rather than down the timing of a rate hike will probably not be until the end of 2018. The other factor putting pressure on the Aussie stems from what is happening in the US.

The US Fed are looking to raise interest rates in December although there have been renewed concerns over weak inflation and more importantly weak wage growth, something that has become an issue for many of the major economies. As interest rates in the US go up taking rates higher than what are currently available down under this has the effect of helping drive up the US dollar whilst weakening the Australian dollar. With the US looking to continue raising rates another 2-3 times in 2018 as things stand then the Australian dollar could find itself under considerable pressure in the New Year.

Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars should pay particular attention to the EU summit in the middle of December as this is where the pound should see new direction. Should the Brexit stalemate be overcome then the pound could rally materially although the risk remains of a no deal scenario.

UK banking stress test released this morning have highlighted the banks are strong enough to withstand a severe stress test scenario in a sign of strength for the banking sector. More importantly the Governor of the bank of England has said that bank will continue to support the economy in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how these key upcoming events have a direct impact on the rates of exchange and how to maximise on the opportunities as they happen then feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar is much weaker and could get even weaker! GBPAUD and EURAUD forecast

The Australian dollar is much weaker overall as concerns grow over the strength of the Chinese economy and also other currencies become more favourable to hold. The expectation is that for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia there will be no interest rate rise any time soon and this will see the currency weaker.

The Australia dollar is a beneficiary of improved global confidence particularly in China. China is a major economy and the strength of the Australian dollar is widely attributable to the strength and weakness of the Chinese economy. Overall impressions for the future centre around a weaker Chinese economy as evidenced by the concerns over the stock market in China which has a large public following

Concerns about the possibly negative outlook on the Chinese economy has troubled the market and this has seen Aussie weaker as a wider reflection of stability in the region.

With sterling finding much favour as the UK government makes gentle progress on Brexit and the Euro also finding form on the back of progress with German coalition talks, GBPAUD and EURAUD have both risen hitting 1.7556 and 1.5697 on the interbank rates. This is presenting excellent fresh opportunities on both currency pairs which should be monitored very closely for potential buyers.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars, global events are increasingly driving the Aussie exchange rates, as opposed to domestic news in the Australian economy. Trying to anticipate and monitor the current outlook is no easy feat but it does seem like for now the Aussie will remain weaker.

Longer term trends could easily see the Aussie regain back these losses but for Aussie holders this could prove an expensive gamble. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.

Could the Pound make further gains against the Australian Dollar before the end of the year? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained strong against the Australian Dollar during the course of the week and I think we could see some further gains coming for the Pound.

The recent US economic data has showed a couple of lower than expected data releases including Services and Durable Goods orders and this has provided evidence that the US economy may be slowing down a little.

The releases in my opinion are not really a big cause for concern but it does show that things are not going as well as expected.

The US Federal Reserve have almost guaranteed that they will be raising interest rates at next month’s meeting but with this week’s data this could see a slowdown of policy during 2018.

Whenever the US displays signs of a slowdown it tends to weaken commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar and this is one of the reasons for the Pound making gains vs the Australian Dollar in recent times.

Turning the focus back down under the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated they will be keeping monetary policy the same for a long time to come as wage pressures have come onto the agenda.

With only a few weeks before the end of the year the Pound is now trading at its best rate to buy Australian Dollars since May and I think depending on how the Brexit talks go in the next fortnight I think we could see further gains for GBPAUD exchange rates.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall next week?

GBPAUD rate looks set to remain on the favourable side for Australian buyers as the market seeks to invest in more profitable currencies such as the US dollar. With the US dollar much stronger on the back of increased expectations they will raise their base interest rate next month, the Australian dollar has weakened as it is unlikely they will raise their rate until perhaps 2019.

This is presenting buyers of Australian dollars with pounds with a much better opportunity to purchase the currency which may quickly disappear in the coming weeks as uncertainty over the Brexit continues to hold back the pound.

Next week key economic data for Australia is the latest news from the Private Sector Credit reports. The Australian consumer has been a big driver on the Australian economy which has been going fro strength to strength in recent years. What I think is more important will be the US economic data we have next week.

Next week we have the latest US GDP data which will I am sure be very important in determining any further rates hikes and could be something to consider. The Australian economy is very much dependent on the global economy and principally the Chinese economy. Further twists and turns in the UK economy could see sterling rise against the Aussie too.

If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then I believe making plans sooner. For more information at no cost or obligation please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

GBP/AUD Forecast – UK Autumn Budget Update (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates continue to float around 1.75 on the exchange, with the AUD finding plenty of support around this threshold.

With much of this week’s focus on yesterday’s UK Autumn budget, clients holding the AUD may have anticipated a negative market reaction to this and a drop in value for the Pound.

The result was almost a non-event for the currency markets and in truth the budget very rarely has a major impact on exchange rates.

Yesterday’s “safe” budget was always unlikely to throw up any major surprises. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond were already under severe pressure, both inside their own Conservative party and externally as well. The former is trying desperately to rally the country in the wake the on-going stagnant Brexit negotiations, whilst the latter was under the spotlight following the disastrous budget he delivered in March.

The key points delivered by Hammond, included Stamp Duty on all properties valued under £300,000 for first time buyers, higher road tax for diesel cars and an additional 2.8 bn for the NHS.

However, despite these claims economic growth forecasts for the UK were cut, which has been directly attributed to the on-going fall out from Brexit.

Fear over the UK’s economic standing following our eventual separation from the EU continue to drive market sentiment. With investor confidence minimal the Pound is struggling to make any significant inroads against the AUD.

The Australian economy is itself under the microscope somewhat. Rising property prices and an over reliance on their export of raw materials, is predicted to put pressure on the AUD over the coming months. =

Whilst the markets never move simply in one direction, I do not anticipate GBP/AUD to gain any sustainable momentum above 1.75. However, due to the issues mentioned above the Pound may well continue to find enough support above 1.70 as we head towards Christmas.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Aussie Dollar Boosted on Comments from RBA (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has found a small degree of support this week after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe made clear that the next interest rate move is more likely to be up rather than down. The last minutes from the RBA signalled that there is unlikely to be any interest rate increase for a very long time so which actually helped see the Aussie weaken. Although the Governor’s comments don’t fundamentally change that much the markets can take it as reassurance that there is likely to be a rate rise possibly next year and this is giving the Aussie a small boost.

GBP AUD exchange rates could see an interesting day and rest of the week on the back of the budget that will be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond today. The well broadcasted budget is likely to see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates depending on how well it is received. Considering the Chancellor’s failed budget earlier this year he is unlikely to make any drastic changes and his hands are tied regardless as a result of Brexit uncertainty. As such GBP AUD rates are more likely to be impacted by the ongoing Brexit negotiations unless of course the Chancellor makes an epic mistake in which case his position would almost certainly be in jeopardy.

The Brexit negotiations remain deadlocked although a cabinet meeting on Monday evening seems to have unlocked more funds to be offered to Brussels with the condition being applied that the door must open to a future trade agreement. The caveat offered by the British government that nothing is agreed until all is agreed would suggest the UK could if necessary withdraw any offer of a financial settlement it makes and this will inevitable keep the pressure on sterling for the foreseeable future

At the next EU summit the EU leaders will decide if talks will move forward to trade and this is where there is likely to be substantial movement for clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. The summit around the 15th December in my view should see new direction for GBP AUD. Clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch at this stage in the run up this event to look at the options available to take the risk out of the market place and top try and maximise on any substantial changes in exchange rates. Feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD exchange rates continue to rise?

Since the end of August the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar and exchange rates have increased by 13 cents (8%). To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into Australian dollars would achieve our clients an additional 26,000 dollars. 

In recent weeks the commentary coming from the Reserve Bank of Australian is that interest rates will remain on hold at 1.5%. There is a strong correlation between the US and Australia. Currency speculators tend to trade between the two and in recent weeks the Federal Reserve have been hinting toward hiking interest rates in December therefore I expect Australian speculators have been selling off the Aussie and buying US dollars.

The pound has also been strengthening in recent months off the back of an interest rate hike in the UK and positive news coming from Brexit negotiations. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May has hinted that the UK and EU are close to securing a deal in regards to EU citizens rights and reports are emerging that the PM is close to offering £38 billion as a divorce settlement bill.

The EU have given the UK a deadline for this Friday for clear progression to be made. Once the statements are released by the UK and EU I expect to see major volatility. Positive news that trade negotiations will start in the upcoming weeks could see GBPAUD exchnage rates rise towards 1.80.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.