Retail Sales data strengthens the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Will Retail Sales data continue to be positive?

We recently witnessed a sharp fall in retail sales down under. It was the sharpest fall in four years and alarm bells were ringing. There was a serious problem with housing affordability and wage growth. The housing bubble in Australia is common knowledge with foreign investors willing to pay the inflated house prices. The natives are struggling and are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxury products.

Last month bucked the trend however. We saw a huge rise above the expectations of 0.4% to 1.2% in retail sales. The question is will this growth continue?

I would say the answer to this is sadly no. Having looked into the situation in more detail it looks as though consumers’ obsession with Apple could be the cause along with a spending frenzy on Black Friday. The launch of the iPhone X was the phone that everyone wanted.

If I was an Australian Dollar seller I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I am of the opinion the data release was an anomaly and I think we will see a sharp fall next month. Take into account that GBP/AUD hit 1.79 recently, so current levels are very favorable.

There is unemployment figures next Thursday and it will be interesting to see if the monster run of form can continue. The last figures were the most impressive since February 2013. I would not however hang on for this release if I was selling the Aussie, a lot can happen in a week.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

For more news on foreign exchange rates and to request a free no-obligation quote visit www.currencies.co.uk