Monthly Archives: February 2018

Sterling falls after strong words from the EU, will GBP/AUD continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board today, after some strong words from the EU negotiating team regarding Brexit have caused Sterling bulls some cause for concern.

It appears that issues surrounding the Northern Irish border and how the customs union will continue along with whether there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Regular readers of ours will be aware that it’s Brexit related data that’s causing GBP exchange rates to move the most dramatically at the moment, and today is no different as such as an update from Michel Barnier is impacting the Pounds value to a greater extent than the news of a rate hike from the Bank of England recently.

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is now dropping into the mid 1.70’s after testing the late 1.70’s in recent weeks. Tomorrow there is the potential for further price movement as there will be there release of Manufacturing data which will cover expectations moving forward. Then on Friday there will be Services PMI which again will cover sentiment moving forward in what’s a very important sector for the UK.

If you would like to plan around these events do feel free to get in touch with me. Also Bank of England governor Mark Carney and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be speaking on Friday which may move markets, so again it’s worth being aware of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Factors impacting GBPAUD exchange rates

The pound has been steadily making gains against the Australian dollar over the last 6 months, but over the last few weeks GBPAUD exchange rates seem to have leveled out in the higher end of the 1.70s.

The UK coming to an agreement with the EU at the end of last year in regards to the divorce bill, EU citizens rights and the Irish border helped the pound to strengthen. Couple this with the RBA continuing to state interest rate hikes are unlikely throughout 2018, this is the reason why  GBPAUD exchange rates have been improving.

Towards the end of the week UK Prime Minister Theresa May will address the UK public and provide a well needed updated. At present the commentary coming from head EU negotiator Michel Barnier is that the UK are still trying to cherry pick and the EU will not allow this. Quite clearly this speech has to potential to have major implications on the direction of GBPAUD for the upcoming months.

In other news the US are set to release a few data releases on Thursday which could have an impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. Core Consumption expenditure is set to released at 1.30, ISM manufacturing PMI 3pm and new Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell, will give a speech also at 3pm.

Yesterday Mr Powell, gave a bullish speech about the US economy which helped to strengthen the US dollar and commodity currencies came under pressure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend continue throughout Thursday.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

A quiet week for Australian data but that does not mean the Australian Dollar will remain flat

We have not seen any major movements from the Australian Dollar against other major currencies this week, but that does no mean that the rest of the week the volatility will stay away.

Most Australian Dollar movements for the rest of the week will come from other announcements around the globe, including numerous economic data releases and speeches from the U.S.

New Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is currently speaking and is also due to speak again tomorrow, due to the fact that these are his first speeches since taking control, any hint on his personal plans for fiscal policy will be of great interest to investors and speculators alike.

At present it seems that the markets are expecting three interest rate hikes from the U.S in the year ahead and should the new man in charge confirm that he plans to progress along the same lines then this may lead to the Australian Dollar losing value in the coming weeks and months.

As mentioned a number of times before on this site any further hikes in interest rates from the U.S will make their interest rate higher than that of Australia, therefore you would expect investors to shift money from the Australian Dollar into the U.S Dollar, not only to ensure that they get a better return but also due to the USD being seen as a safer haven and less volatile.

Commodity prices will still also be of great importance to those following the Australian Dollar in the year ahead and with projections of a slight drop off in commodity prices as the year progresses this could also weigh on the Australian Dollar too.

For anyone specifically with an interest in AUD/GBP no matter which way you need to move money, Friday morning will also be key for you as Prime Minister Theresa May is due to be speaking to the British public with an update on  Brexit, so this could lead to volatility for Sterling hence moving the AUD/GBP rate.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving the Australian Dollar then feel free to get in touch with me directly, I can help you not only achieve the very best rate of exchange but our levels of customer service and speed of transfers are second to none.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Fed Interest Rate outlook could hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Inflation holds back RBA rate hike

GBP/AUD remains range bound at present. Sitting between 1.75-1.80. Recent news from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is that there is little chance of an interest rate hike this year. Inflation is the key restraint on a hike.

This could cause prolonged Australian dollar weakness as investors will moving to the green back. The US dollar is considered a safe haven currency and currently offers the same level of returns as the Aussie at 1.5%.

There are also several rate hikes expected by the Federal Reserve later in the year which again will push investors toward the US dollar and away from the Aussie which is considered a riskier currency.

It will be interesting to see how the newly appointed Fed chair, Jerome Powell will address interest rate policy. His tone will no doubt influence the markets as investors wait with baited breath for any news on rate policy moving forward. The current state of affairs does not bode well for the Australian Dollar, the one positive for Australian Dollar sellers buying sterling is the 1.80 resistance point remains intact at this point.

Iron Ore Pricing heavily influences

Regular readers will be fully aware of the influence Iron Ore prices can have on the Aussie. Australia’s primary export is Iron Ore and as such movements in Iron Ore price can affect the Australian Dollar. China is the main purchaser so if you have a trade involving the Australian Dollar it is worth keeping an eye on Chinese growth data.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

AUD Forecast – AUD Remains Under Pressure Due to On-Going Uncertainty in the Global Markets (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dropped back below 1.78, following a rally overnight. The Pound a high of 1.7905 before retracting to the current levels, with the AUD continuing to find plenty of support under 1.80.

Despite Sterling struggling to break through this key resistance barrier it has been well supported of late, seemingly performing better against the AUD than it has against some of the other major currencies.

GBP/AUD rates are currently trading at some of the best levels since the now infamous UK referendum result. Investor confidence has risen, in line with some seemingly positive developments in Brexit negotiations. This positive feeling, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) talking talk any potential interest rate hikes in the short-term, has helped propel the Pound and support it around its current trading levels.

We must also consider the US economy and global markets, when trying to determine which direction the AUD might take next.

The US economy is still considered the key driver of the global market and as such any upturn in the US economy can lead to an increase in investors risk appetite. Thin in turn will cause investors to move their funds in to what are considered riskier assets or currencies such as the AUD. Therefore in times of global prosperity the AUD will often strengthen as investors look for potentially higher yielding currency returns. Similarly in times of global uncertainty, as we currently face, funds are moved away from the riskier assets and into safer haven currencies such as the USD.

Personally, I would avoid risk wherever possible in the current market, which remains uncertain and unpredictable at best.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound continue to increase against the Australian Dollar this month? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit close to a 30 day high vs the Australian Dollar creating some very good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars recently. The Australian Dollar has come under a lot of pressure recently as global investors appear to be shying away from the AUD in favour of increasing yields elsewhere.

The minutes from the latest meeting in the US have all but guaranteed an interest rate hike in March and since then the Australian Dollar has weakened.

Indeed, the Bank of England are also considering increasing interest rates by as early as May according to some sources as inflation continues to remain above the target of 2%.

With the interest rates in Australia not as favourable as they were in previous years and with other nations looking at raising rates this is why we’re heading towards 1.80 for GBPAUD exchange rates.

A recent statement by RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested that the central bank are unlikely to be looking at raising rates until some point next year as Australia is struggling with low inflation. There appears to be a bit of a two tier economy as the western part of the country has much lower inflation than in the east and this is causing a headache for the RBA about how to control inflation concerns with monetary policy.

Wednesday could be a volatile day for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar with the latest release of Chinese manufacturing data. As China is such a large trading partner with Australia this can often have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar depending on how the data comes out.

If you’re in the process of buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me direclty for further information and a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Inflation could delay rate hike from the RBA (Daniel Johnson)

RBA Rate Hike stalled by inflation

Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently suggested that a hike in interest rates may not occur until 2019, citing struggling inflation as the reason for holding fire on a hike. This does not bode well considering the US Dollar is considered a safe haven currency and currently offers the same return as the Australian Dollar. The forecast for hikes from the Federal Reserve is that there could be as many as three, which would make the Aussie considerably less attractive to investors.
On Tuesday Home Sales figures are released. New Home Sales is a key barometer as to the health of the housing market and can give an indication as to what is expected in the future. If there is a high reading above expectations we could see Australian Dollar strength.

Keep a close eye on Iron Ore Prices

If you have a trade involving the Australian Dollar it is always wise to keep a close eye on Iron Ore prices. Iron Ore is Australia’s primary export and fluctuations in price will alter the price of the Australian Dollar. With the Chinese being the main purchaser of Iron Ore it may also be shrew to keep an eye on growth figures from China.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs.

Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in the coming weeks?

The pound to Australian dollar is looking much better for Australian dollar buyers we we get closer back to the higher levels which we have seen since the Referendum vote. The key piece of evidence on this was the news that perhaps the UK will be receiving some form of privileged access to the single market once it leaves the EU.

Wage growth data from Australia also improved but it wasn’t really a strong enough Inflation figure to justify the hiking of interest rates as many had previously been hoping for. The end result was actually a slightly weaker Australian dollar as despite rising, there is less chance of a case for an interest rate hike. Reduced chances of any interest rate hike are better news for AUD buyers since it makes the Australian currency less attractive to hold.

Inflation is not above the target of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) so there are less opportunities for a case to hike interest rates, general impressions are for a rate rise much further ahead in the future but for now the lack of one is seeing the Australian dollar weaker.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars the outlook on Brexit is vital to the short-term drivers on the pound. Overall expectations for sterling are in the main linked to Brexit and a speech next week expected by Theresa May could deliver some of the movement we need to see the GBPAUD rate move higher.

If you have a transfer to buy Australian dollars then perhaps tracking the 1.80 is sensible, if you wish to be kept up to date with the latest trends and themes in the market I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategies to help maximise the position.

Thank you for reading and please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

GBP AUD Rates Before Brexit Ministers Meeting (James Lovick)

The Australian construction sector took a knock this week with a large drop in construction work done. The data which covers the last quarter of 2017 were particularly weak and highlights that there are some issues in the Australian economy. It is normally the construction and housing sectors which are the first to have problems ahead of an economic slowdown or recession. Australia actually has an incredible history in avoiding a technical recession lasting decades but a slowdown could be brewing down under which could weigh heavy on the Australian dollar.

Selling Australian dollars?

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are likely to see considerable market volatility over the next few days and over the course of this weekend. Brexit uncertainty continues to keep the pressure on the price of sterling but any developments at this particular time could see a sizeable market reaction.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is meeting at her Chequers country retreat with her entire cabinet to try and form a final position on Brexit. Any details offered from the meeting are likely to see the pound react and it is understood that Theresa May will set out her Brexit plans in an about two weeks’ time before the formal trade talks take place in March. Anything positive in terms of clarity offered in my view should help strengthen the price of sterling against all of the major currencies including GBP AUD.

Clients looking to sell Australian dollars may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later to avoid disappointment. The pound has remained very weak for a sustained period and any positive Brexit developments could be the trigger for considerable sterling strength. Please get in touch with me if you would like to discuss your own requirement and how we can assist with any transfers and the timing of an exchange.

Australian home sales are released on Tuesday and should give some more insight into the state of the housing market down under whilst Australian business confidence figure released on Wednesday should give some idea as to how optimistic business is on the future of the economy.

To discuss your own currency requirement and how these events are likely to influence the rate of exchange for your won transfer then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

AUD Forecast – AUD Struggling to Impact Against Sterling Despite Brexit Concerns (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has struggled to make much of an impact against Sterling of late, although it seems to have found support below 1.80 against Sterling.

GBP/AUD rates have remained range bound between 1.77- 1.7829 during Wednesday’s trading, with both positive and negative data influencing the pairs value.

The Pound gained some support yesterday following a leaked Brexit report. It indicated that the EU Parliament is set to push for Britain to have “privileged” single market access, giving the UK more flexibility and thus softening our upcoming exit. It seems as though Brussels are keen to accelerate the UK’s exit, perhaps by offering improved terms.

Whilst these reports have not been substantiated, they seem to have filtered through to currency markets and provided enough substance to act as a potential catalyst, for an increase in investor confidence.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released overnight, coupled with UK Unemployment rising to 4.4% seemingly put pressure back on Sterling.

The RBA were keen to point towards wage growth improvements as a reason they could look to raise interest rates this year. With their global outlook also looking fairly positive, the AUD could be one of the main benefactors.

Investors will look towards riskier, potentially higher yielding currencies such as the AUD in times in global prosperity. This could help strengthen the AUD’s position over the coming months if does indeed come to fruition.

In the short-term the UK economy also received a boost, seeing the strongest two quarters of productivity since the 2008 recession.

The markets seem to be increasingly driven off of rumours rather than facts and as such, they are proving increasingly difficult to dissect.

With Brexit developments likely to drive investor sentiment over the coming months, I would be wary about gambling too much on a market which has become unpredictable at almost every turn.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.