Monthly Archives: September 2018

Huge month ahead for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar with Brexit talks

The Australian Dollar has started to fight back against the Pound especially towards the end of the week in advance of this weekend’s Tory party conference.

During the last few weeks rumours are circulating that some Tory members are looking for a change in leadership especially the Pro-Remainers in the party.

Theresa May claimed last week during her televised statement that under her leadership there will be no second referendum so some in the party think that their only option is to remove her from power. However, this would be deemed as very dangerous politically and would open the door to Labour.

It will be interesting to see how the Tory conference goes this weekend as if there is more division in the party then I think we could see Sterling exchange rates lower as we begin the week.

There are two other huge stumbling blocks ahead for the Pound with the EU summit due to be held on October 18th. Just over a week ago the Chequers plan was rejected by the European leaders and as yet no other alternative has been offered so currently we are at a stalemate with the discussions which does not bode well for the Pound at the moment.

Depending on how the talks go in the next three weeks the EU may also hold an emergency Brexit meeting in November to try and get a deal agreed between both sides so there is a huge amount of volatility coming in the next few weeks so be prepared for any eventuality.

As we saw in June 2016 when the Brexit vote came out we saw huge losses for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar so I think we could see some huge movements if we do manage to get a deal agreed later this month.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as help you with various contract types all with the aim of saving you money.

Please email me with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect with the Australian dollar ahead?

Private Sector Credit increased in Australia which is a good sign since it shows the private sector expanding. However it illustrates a worrying point over personal debt and credit, which has been a major hindrance to the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, in raising interest rates. Household debt to income is exceptionally high in Australia and many Australians could find themselves in negative equity too.

The Australian dollar could therefore find itself much weaker in the future as the RBA has to pause for thought in its plans to be raising interest rates. This is a domestic issue but we could also see more global issues weigh on sentiment, examples would include the Trade Wars and an economic slowdown in China. Expectations are for the Trade Wars to intensify, this would heap pressure on the Aussie dollar too.

The pound to Australian dollar rate is very close to the post-Brexit highs, nearing the 1.84 level seen in April. With the pound looking like it could easily come under more pressure following Brexit, clients with a position buying Australian dollars could be looking at a very good time to buy their currency. In the months and weeks ahead we are expecting to hear of more news on the Brexit which might derail sterling, Boris Johnson has released his Brexit manifesto this morning and whilst he has lost credibility in recent months, he could present a threat to GBPAUD rates.

Over the weekend we have the latest Conservative Party Conference where Boris Johnson will soon be attracting more attention. Could he trigger a fall in PM May’s position? Expectations are for a volatile pound ahead, if you need or wish to buy or sell Australian dollars this could be a key time to be making plans.

If you have a transfer to buy or sell Australian dollars then making plans in advance seems to be the best bet with all manner of outcomes possible. If you have a transfer to make, please feel free to get in touch for information to help with any decisions on the best rates to aim for and strategies to take.

Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

GBP AUD ahead of Conservative Party Conference (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under a degree of pressure of late as trade war concerns continue to weigh heavy on the Aussie. The cooling property market down under with considerable falls seen in both Sydney and Melbourne are also attracting concerns from the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the markets are not expecting a property market crash bearing in mind the falls in house prices appear to be coming from two cities, the central bank will nonetheless be in no hurry to raise interest rates which could potentially slow growth.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting at 1.8140 and the two biggest drivers for the pair will be Brexit and the ongoing US trade war with China. The Australian dollar is negatively impacted by the global uncertainty for a slowdown in global growth especially considering that China is such a major export market for Australia.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May was in New York yesterday speaking on Brexit as she tried to reassure business that a deal between Britain and the EU will be reached.

UK Gross Domestic Product figures are released tomorrow morning although the central focus in my opinion will be on the Conservative party conference this weekend. With so much to negotiate in these Brexit negotiations and the difficult task that Theresa May has in finding a deal that will work for the EU but also one that she can get through in parliament then there is considerable risk for the pound over these next two months.

An agreement is expected to be found although any clues as to whether the Chequers deal will fly or if another Canada type trade agreement takes preference will inevitably have a direct impact on the price of sterling exchange rates. With splits in the cabinet over a softer or harder Brexit then this conference in my opinion could give new direction for the price of sterling.

For assistance in transferring Australian dollars at the best exchange rates then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD remain above 1.80?

For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, over the last couple of weeks opportunities have presented themselves. Arguably this is because the Australian PM was ousted and trade wars between China and the US is putting pressure on the commodity currencies.

However short term, Australian dollar buyers could be running out of time. After this weekend the Conservative Conference will start and we should find out the more about the Conservative party’s stance in regards to Brexit.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reinforced in recent weeks that her Chequers plan is the only option. However MPs such as Boris Johnson have called for the Prime Minister to forget her chequers plan and to adopt a similar approach to the Canadian free trade agreement.

Personally I expect the PM to come under further pressure and there will be further commentary in regards to a vote of no confidence. If this materialises and therefore there is any chance of a general election GPBAUD could be back trading in the 1.60s before long.

Any other news Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is set to deliver a speech in Salzburg tomorrow. Interest rates are set to remain on hold for the time being and I expect him to be cautious knowing that the conservative conference is fast approaching. It was only last week he stated 35% of the housing market could be wiped if there is a no deal, therefore this could be another sterling negative release.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your requirements. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Pound collapses against the Australian Dollar after Brexit talks stall (Tom Holian)

The Pound collapsed against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar after a bad week politically for the UK.

The Pound began to drop on Thursday when the unofficial EU meeting didn’t go very well with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan put out by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She criticised the EU and said if they reject her plan then they will need to come up with a plan of their own. Clearly there is no plan coming at least in the short term and this uncertainty caused problems for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Even further losses came on Friday afternoon as Theresa May gave a statement on Brexit and confirmed that a second referendum will not be coming and that she is focused on making sure democracy will prevail. The markets weakened during the statement with GBAUD exchange rates falling below 1.80 after trading above this resistance level for a while.

The Australian Dollar was also given a boost after the Trump administration confirmed that they will not be putting tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

The Aussie Dollar has been under pressure recently caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this will often have a negative effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. However, as Trump has not included them in his latest weight throwing exercise this has helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen against Sterling.

The Australian economy had a further boost recently with credit ratings agency S&P upgrading Australia’s credit outlook from negative to stable for the first time in two years.

With the Australian trade surplus improving as well as record growth in employment this has been another reason for the fightback by the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As we go into next week the GBAUD is likely to be heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga so make sure you’re well prepared for some volatility ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make or would like further information as to what is happening to GBPAUD rates then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Selling falls against the Australian Dollar after chances of a No-Brexit deal increase

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate has fallen below the key 1.80 mark during today’s trading session. This is key as the GBP/AUD pair had previously consolidated above this level and traded as high as 1.85 before the recent fall which has taken place because of the Brexit related comments this week.

At the time of writing the EU leaders are all currently in Austria, as they have been for the past couple of days as there is an informal summit taking place. Whilst there have been some positive comments regarding Brexit recently the summit has all together been a negative for the Pound as the currency has fallen dramatically against a range of currency pairs, with the fall against AUD being quite dramatic in terms of recent price movement which has mostly been thin.

Much of the talk revolves around the Chequers deal, and whether or not it will be both the preferred approach of the UK government and also accepted by the EU members, which at the moment is looking unlikely especially after a speech by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May today.

There is a bank holiday down under on Monday of next week, as it’s the Queen’s birthday and there aren’t any major releases until next Friday which means I’m expecting the Pound to be the main driver of currency fluctuation between the GBP/AUD pair.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD exchange rates – Brexit and trade wars will be the main drivers in my opinion

So far the Pound has had a fairly quiet start to the trading week but all eyes will be on the EU summit today in Salzburg, it is during this conference that we will expect Brexit to be discussed in more detail and this is the type of situation where snippets of news and rumours may hit the wires at any time, leading to Sterling volatility. This volatility may create good buying or selling opportunities depending on the news so if you have a fairly imminent currency exchange to carry out it is well worth contacting me today so that I can keep you fully aware of the latest market movements,

There are officially 191 days to go until Brexit will more than likely be official, and there will be plenty of market movement from now until the lead up to March 2019.

There are plans for a further summit in October and then an extraordinary EU summit is pencilled in for November, and this is where at present we would expect a final deal to be thrashed out.

Towards the end of this month we also have the Conservative party conference on 30th September which may also be one to watch, with Theresa May still seemingly under a little pressure any further negative news surrounding her position may weaken Sterling exchange rates.

In terms of economic data to come out this week, we have Retail Sales figures tomorrow morning at 09:30am and analysts expectations are for a slight drop off in the Retail sector so do be cautious of this release tomorrow if your currency requirement is imminent.

Personally I still feel that Brexit news is going to be key to where the Pound heads next and unfortunately the unpredictable nature of these discussions and the fact that you just do not know which way this is going to head next makes it extremely difficult to know where Sterling exchange rates will be in the coming weeks.

On the Australian Dollar side we have Donald Trump and trade wars that are still very much impacting global attitude to risk, when Trump and China lock horns you tend to see Australian Dollar weakness and when things start to settle the Australian Dollar is fighting back.

The rest of this week is quiet for economic data that may impact the Australian Dollar so I feel that most movements will be based on attitude to risk and political issues.

If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction I feel that there is more chance of GBP/AUD going up in the next few days than coming down.

Should you not be of a gambling nature and you want to remove the risk or your currency exchange costing a lot more than you had budgeted for then the sensible option may be to look into booking something sooner rather than later as we enter the final stages of Brexit talks. There are a number of contract options that we have available to protect you including a forward contract, stop loss or limit order. If you would like further information on any of theses contract types, or you would like to discuss a potential exchange in more detail with one of our brokers here then please feel free to call our trading floor on (+441494 725353) or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Brexit Clarity could cause further gains for Sterling against AUD. (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – We have seen Sterling strengthen over the Australian Dollar of late, breaching the 1.80 resistance point and remaining above it. One of the main catalysts is positive news on Brexit. Chief EU Negotiator, Michel Barnier stated recently that he believes it is realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. It has also been revealed that there maybe a solution to the Irish border. There maybe the opportunity to use technology to solve the problem using barcodes on shipping containers to verify where goods have come from and where they are going to.

The Australian economy does have it’s own worries however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s exports, with China engaged in a trade war with the US this will hit Chinese growth which in turn will hit the Australian economy. With global economic uncertainty causing investors to seek safer haven investments the Australian Dollar is not as popular as it once was. The US Dollar is the destination of choice offering the highest 10yr bond yields for several years and there is the prospect of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year.

There is also problems with consumer spending. High wage growth areas are becoming increasingly more expensive which is forcing Australian’s to spend there funds on necessities rather than luxury goods.

I feel Sterling could be set for further gains against the Aussie, but be wary as Brexit talks intensify we could see volatility. If you are buying the Aussie short term aim for high 1.83s, possibly 1.84. I feel 1.85 will be difficult to breach unless we receive firm news on Brexit.

If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect this week for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The week ahead for the Australian dollar looks set to be dominated by continuing news on the likelihood of future interest rate hikes down under. Last week saw a mixed bag of data as investors weighed up the conflicting signals and the overall outlook on the currency pairing. This was underscored by a very positive unemployment report which helped the Aussie to rise against its counterparts. Good news on the Australian dollar has however been tempered by the worrying prospect of fresh economic tariffs from Trump on China, Australia’s main trading partner.

The main economic news this week will be the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and also the House Price Index released this evening. Later in the week we will also see the the RBA Bulletin and also a speech by Assistant Governor Christopher Kent. It was a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Bullock last week which saw movement on the rates as he highlighted growing household debt.

Clients with a currency transfer involving the Australian dollar could now face a range of events to move the rates, it does appear the factors which have weakened the Aussie in recent weeks, are set to remain. Global concerns over Trade Wars which are set to negatively impact China will weigh on economic sentiment and this will influence the Australian dollar.

If you have a transfer to consider buying Australian dollars with pounds there is also the EU Summit which is coming up which could see a volatile week on GBPAUD exchanges. Brexit continues to be the main driver on the pound and this information could see some volatility on the pair.

If you have a transfer to make involving the Australian dollar, we are in business to offer assistance with the timing and the planning of any currency transfers. For more information at no obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

Could we see further gains for Sterling against the Aussie ? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling has made gains against the Aussie of late following a statement from chief Brexit negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier. Barnier said that it is realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. Following the announcement we have seen GBP/AUD hit 1.83.

There are also concerns from down under which was another catalyst for the Spike.  Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s exports and if there is an impact to the Chinese economy it can have repercussions on Australia. The ongoing trade war between China and the US is an example of this.

China have vowed to match the US Dollar for Dollar on tariffs and both sides are preparing further tariffs. As the war escalates investor confidence in the Australian Dollar is waning. During times of global economic uncertainty investors seek out safe haven investments with solid returns.

The US Dollar is the destination of choice, 10yr bond yields are currently the highest for years and there are also expected to be further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

There is also the problem of living costs. Many seek to live in high wage growth  areas such as Sydney or Melbourne. Housing prices in these area are proving overly expensive and Australians are being forced to spend their hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods which is hurting the Aussie.

Although the lack of Brexit progress is holding back the pound I think the Aussie is one of the few major currencies we could see further gains.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.