Monthly Archives: June 2019

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – G20 summit and RBA Meeting

Could the US China Trade Wars be finishing soon?

We could be in for a very busy week for GBPAUD exchange rates owing to a number of different factors.

The G20 summit has now concluded and it appears as though talks between the US and China have been improving. Therefore, could this be a sign that the trade wars between the two world’s leading economies are coming to an end?

This should in theory help to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound as the Australian Dollar is often driven by an increase in global risk appetite.

Trump has claimed that he had an excellent meeting with Chinese leader Xi Xingping. He also went on to say that ‘we are back on track’ when questioned about the situation between the two nations.

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde has also said of the situation ‘While the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China is welcome, tariffs already implemented are holding back the global economy, and unresolved issues carry a great deal of uncertainty about the future.’

Another interest rate cut coming in Australia next week?

Also, next week the Reserve Bank of Australia are due to meet again. Having recently cut interest rates to just 1.25% could we see another interest rate coming on Tuesday?

According to some reports there is a 74% chance of an interest rate cut next week so if this happens we could see losses for GBPAUD exchange rates early next week. There is a huge amount of concern as the housing market in Australia is under a lot of pressure.

Therefore, pay close attention to next week’s RBA decision if you have a currency transfer to make involving Australian Dollars.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of offering you bank beating exchange rates.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Forecast : Will the Australian dollar rise or fall in July?

The Australian dollar has been under some scrutiny as the market gears itself up for two major events which might move the market, there is a growing pressure regarding the uncertainty surrounding the G20 Summit, plus an uncertainty surrounding the outlook from the RBA. The Australian dollar is driven through a variety of domestic and global events, I would not be surprised to see a turbulent week in early July.

There is a very important G20 meeting taking place currently, which may see the Trade Wars topic being discussed, a key factor on the Australian dollar rate since it links back to sentiments on global trade. The Trade Wars have seen the Aussie rise in fall in value, as the market appreciates or dislikes the progress and develops on the trade issues. As a major exporter to China, the Australian economy is sensitive to any news that might help or hinder the Chinese economy.

Domestically, the prospect of Australia lowering rates could see the currency weaker, as the RBA seek to cut interest rates following some weaker inflation data and concerns about the Australian economy. The Australian economy has been waning under various pressures, including the fact its economy has been growing without recession for 27 years. At some point the economy will suffer and struggle, much of the growth in Australia is attributable to China and its dominance, signs of a slowdown could see the RBA cutting interest rates next month.

All in all, it looks like a very interesting time for the Australian currency. The market is becoming increasingly concerned over the future outlook for the Australian economy domestically but also how global events will shape the market. If you have a transfer to make in the coming days, months and weeks, please don’t hesitate to speak to me directly to learn what else is driving the market.

Thank you for reading and best wishes.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Falls on Hope for US China Trade Deal (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower after following comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He stated that the US China trade deal is getting closer and he felt that it is 95% complete. This is good news for the commodity currencies to include the Australian dollar as they tend to benefit when the global economy is performing. The ongoing trade war between the US and China which has lasted for almost a year continues to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar as concerns for global growth remain. A weaker global economy means less production in China which is of course Australia’s largest export market for its raw materials. Any further developments will likely have a big impact on the GBP to AUD pair.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates. As the leadership contest continues as the two prospective Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt battle it out the markets are incredibly interested to who will take the top job. With two very different approaches to Brexit the pound could travel in either direction depending on who becomes PM. Boris has made clear that he wishes to leave the no deal option on the table to try and force a deal by the latest deadline of 31st October. The prospect of no deal will likely keep the pressure on the price of sterling and there could be some even better opportunities ahead for those looking to covert Australian dollars to pounds. Those with pending requirements would be wise to consider planning around this important change in British politics with a volatile few months expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet again after the weekend on Monday for the next interest rate decision. The central bank cut rates to record lows at the last meeting and there is a high chance there will be another cut next week. Such a move should prove negative for the Australian dollar although any movement will also be driven by any interest rate decisions made in the US. The US Federal Reserve are widely expected to cut at the next meeting and possibly by as much as 50 basis points which may help limit any losses for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Further rate cuts from the RBA could push AUD exchange rates lower, even against the struggling Pound!

The Australian economy is continuing to show signs of struggling despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts to mitigate the slowdown, after the RBA cut rates down to the lowest level in it’s history at the beginning of last month. As it stands the base rate of interest sits at 1.25% and there are some market commentators that now believe that the rate could be cut again at least once this year, which some outlining the next cut coming as soon as next month on the 18th of July, which will be the central banks next opportunity to make the decision.

Westpac Bank, which is one of the biggest lenders down under believes that there could be two cuts this year, which demonstrates the perceived weakness in the outlook for the Aussie economy moving forward. Inflation levels are stagnant in Australia and the unemployment level has also been picking up. Property prices have dropped quite dramatically throughout the major cities also and there are no concerns surrounding the construction sector so we could continue to see a sell off in the AUD’s value if these predictions materialise.

The main driver of the Pound will continue to be the Conservative leadership contest which will determine the UK’s next Prime Minister, and also the route for Brexit. Boris Johnson remains the frontrunner, and his outlook differs from that of Jeremy Hunt’s so we could see volatility for the Pound regarding this matter.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar news

The Australian dollar had a strong Monday trading session, strengthening against its US and sterling counterparts. Investors are looking ahead to Presidents Donald Trump of the US and Xi Jinping of China’s meeting at the summit this week on the 28th and 29th. Donald Trump took to his twitter account last week to announce that talks had been positive and would resume this week. The Chinese economy has been slowing of late due to the ongoing trade war, and this is having a direct impact on the Australian dollar. If talks this week are positive, even though a deal is unlikely, the Australian dollar should benefit.

However the problem for the Australian dollar is that the markets are expecting another interest rate cut next month due to weak wages, employment and inflation data. Furthermore the RBA have even hinted to using other measures to stimulate the economy and I expect this would be quantitative easing (printing money). History tells us when a central bank cuts interest rates investors tend to shy away from that particular currency, therefore the Australian dollar is set to face a tough time in the upcoming weeks.

In regards to the pound vs Australian dollar, the ongoing embarrassment which is British politics seem to keep stealing the headlines and therefore driving the price of GBPAUD. Boris Johnson is still the front runner to become the next PM and therefore the chances of crashing out of the EU remain high. On the 22nd July we will find out if Mr Johnson is set to take over No10, and the weeks thereafter will be extremely important for the future price of the pound.

Since the UK voted out of the EU the pound to Australian dollar mid market rate dropped just below 1.60. My personal opinion is that we will see a snap General Election before a crash out Brexit, however if I am wrong I wouldn’t be surprised to the see pound fall further than 1.60 before the end of the year.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with your options and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Further interest rate cuts planned in Australia

Will Boris be the next Prime Minister?

The Tory leadership election is now down to the final two with Boris Johnson due to go head to head with Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has been the clear leader since the votes began and the strong likelihood is that he’ll become the new Tory leader when it is officially announced on 22nd July. Johnson won the ballot with 160 votes compared to Hunt with 77. Therefore, unless Johnson makes a calamity in the next month I cannot see why he won’t win.

This has given the Pound some support against a number of different currencies but we are still in a fairly uncertain period for the Pound as we still do not what will happen with Brexit.

Australian interest rates to be cut again in 2019

In the meantime turning the focus back towards what is happening in Australia and things are not going well down under.

Following the federal election which gave the Australian Dollar a brief period of respite the currency has started to weaken again.

The Australian Dollar is close to its lowest level against the US Dollar in history and has started to weaken once again vs the Pound.

Blackrock Inc has shorted the Australian Dollar as they expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to 0.5% from the current levels of 1.25%. Australia has been one of the benefactors of having a highly competitive interest rate so with further interest rate cuts expected I think this could have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the impact of the ongoing US-China trade wars which appear to have little signs of ending soon. As China is one of Australia’s leading trading partners any slowdown in the world’s second largest economy can often effect the value of the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe has claimed that the most recent interest rate cut was an attempt to cut unemployment levels as well as helping inflation but I agree with both Blackrock and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia that there are further interest rate cuts coming during 2019.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will further interest rate cuts result in a drop for the Australian Dollar this year?

The Australian Dollar has continued to come under pressure recently which has helped the Pound recoup some of its recent losses against the currency. One of the reasons for the downturn for AUD is due to the interest rate cut that took place earlier this month, which has pushed Australian interest rates down to record lows. There are now predictions of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia with some financial institutions predicting two further cuts this year, which would push the rate down to 0.75% and likely have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollars value.

Aside from these forecasts of rate cuts due to the slowing economy, another reason for Aussie Dollar weakness is due to the ongoing US-China trade war saga, which has caused concerns for the Australian economy moving forward. I would expect to see AUD exchange rates continue to struggle whilst this continues, owing to the fact that China is the countries main trading partner.

From the UK side the Conservative leadership contest is likely to remain the key driver, with Boris Johnson remaining the front runner. This leadership contest along with any Brexit related updates remain the key driver for GBP exchange rates so do keep on top of this if you’re following the Pound’s value due to an upcoming currency requirement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Reserve Bank of Australia to drive Australian exchange rates

The Australian dollar has been struggling of late and is close to the lowest levels in a decade against its US dollar counterpart. The Reserve Bank of Australia only recently cut interest rates and further cuts are on the horizon. The central bank also hinted that other stimulus measures could be used in a bid to stimulate economic growth. Furthermore, the deputy Governor Guy Debelle earlier in the year stated that quantitative easing would be a good way to stimulate the economy. History tell us that if a central bank starts a QE program it causes the currency to devalue. For clients selling Australian dollars to buy another currency, its crucial that you keep an eye and understand the RBA next move. If you would like further information on the RBA feel free to contact me on the email below.

How will the Australian dollar perform against the pound?

Even though the Australasian dollar is set for a tough 12 months, the pound has problems of its own. Brexiteer Boris Johnson is the favourite to be the next Prime Minister and its clear that he will take a different approach compared to outgoing Theresa May. A crash out no deal Brexit is looking more likely by the day and consequently the pound is losing further value. As we approach the October deadline, if a deal isn’t in place I expect GBPAUD to fall.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Growth data causes Investor Concern (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

The Australian Dollar has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The most significant catalyst for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the US/China trade war. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and due to this any slow down in growth in China will have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The Trump administration has placed significant tariffs on Chinese goods and China has retaliated with it’s own tariffs. The trade war is set to escalate and could be ongoing which does not bode well for the Aussie. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export to China and at present demand remains healthy which is good news for the Aussie, that is not to say this situation will last however.

Due to global economic uncertainty investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in favour of safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the US Dollar.

There are economic problems down under such as consumer spending and the cost of living in high wage growth areas such as Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates this month to 1.25% and there is the potential for further cuts.

The Australian economy is growing at its slowest rate in almost a decade, which has fuelled speculation surrounding how long Australia will sustain its run of over 27 years without a recession.

Despite the situation down under I believe the  problems in the UK outweigh that of those down under. We currently have no PM and are in complete Brexit limbo. If Boris gets in the probability of a no deal could increase as he will be using this scenario as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from Brussels. A no deal is the investors worst fear and has the potential to cause further woes for Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Will the RBA confirm when interest rates will be cut?

Pound improves against the Australian Dollar

The Pound has seen a small increase vs the Australian Dollar since the weekend after struggling recently.

Last week the latest jobs report highlighted a problem for the Australian economy.

The unemployment figures on the surface appeared to be relatively strong at 5.2% but this is still much lower than that in the US, the UK and also New Zealand.

The hidden figure is that of the under-utilisation rate, which measures the number of unemployed and underemployed as a percentage of the labour force.

This is showing concerns as the figures appear to be rising at the moment. The jobs rate does not demonstrate clearly those who are supplementing their income with second jobs.

This means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be coming under further pressure to consider bringing forward an interest rate cut.

The RBA are due to release their minutes from the latest meeting tomorrow so make sure you pay close attention to the rhetoric used and to discover their appetite for further rate cuts to be brought forward.

With the global economy showing signs of a slowdown I think it is simply a matter of time before the RBA cuts interest rates again and I think this is in part the reason for the Pound’s recent gains vs the Australian Dollar.

This is providing some good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds as the Pound  is still feeling the pressure of the Tory leadership election.

At the moment it appears as though the front runner is Boris Johnson and if he does manage to gain power then this could lead to a brief period of certainty for the British economy and this could give the Pound a boost vs the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk