Category Archives: AUD to GBP

Pound to Australian Dollar improves despite IMF downgrade, is this a sign that the Pound is oversold? (Joseph Wright)

I wrote last week about how some analysts as well as members of the Reserve Bank of Australia are becoming concerned that the Aussie Dollar is becoming overvalued and higher than it perhaps should be, and I believe we will continue to hear similar commentary in the upcoming months.

Earlier in the year the Pound to Aussie rate hit the mid 1.70’s whereas the pair are now trading closer to 1.50 than 1.60. Since the Brexit the lowest the pair have fallen to is to a mid-market level of 1.59 so i don’t think we can rule out another move to these low levels as we don’t require the GBP/AUD pair to do something they haven’t in recent history.

In the early hours of this morning the Pound started off on the back foot after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded both the UK and the US growth forecasts for the rest of this year.

Throughout the day though the Pound has climbed, not just against the Aussie but across the board as the Pound as gained against all major currency pairs today.

Despite this boost I think that we could see the Pound trade at lower levels, especially if the UK inflation rate continues to under-perform and the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of England continues to dwindle.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling’s Woes continue (Daniel Johnson)

A question of who is worse off.

Australia is not in the greatest state. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are reluctant to making any monetary policy moves due to the problems with housing prices. Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese purchasing their raw materials does not bode well for a stable economy. It is almost as though Australia are reliant on China’s very respectable growth continuing, the problem is China’s growth is slipping and their are rumors some of China’s data releases are falsified. Iron ore Australia’s largest export has fell significantly in price which has caused worry among investors.

Australia’s troubles pale in comparison however compared to the UK, although I have faith the UK’s problems will be short to medium term. Unfortunately due to politicians with their own agenda the UK economy is in tatters. Inflation is far too high, not keeping up with average wage growth and house hold debt is shocking. Bordering on pre financial crisis levels witnessed in 2008. Car purchases are through the roof with loan approvals given to those who are in no position to make the payments.

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations is the main reason Sterling is so weak. until their is transparency on Britain’s stance on exit the pound has little chance of recovery.

If you are buying the Aussie with Sterling you are between a rock and a hard place. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Reserve Bank of Australia appear unhappy with ‘overvalued’ Australian Dollar, will they take action? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has not only gained a substantial amount of value against the Pound in recent months, but also against most other major currency pairs.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) already suggesting that there will be no further interest rate changes this year, they now have the issue of an overvalued currency which is a negative for an economy like Australia’s due to it being so heavily export driven.

The reason the RBA is unlikely to amend the interest rate is due to fears of a heavy impact on the already overheating housing market, as making mortgages easier to come by would most likely cause even further issues for house prices down under and especially on the East coast.

The Australian Dollar is now this year’s best-performing major currency so those looking to exchange AUD into another currency should bear this in mind.

Moving forward I think there’s a chance that we could see members of the RBA attempt to jawbone the currency as they will be looking to keep Aussie exports competitive.

The Pound is coming under pressure as Brexit negotiations take place this week in Brussels, and I think there is always the chance of a update on these which could move the markets.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in the coming weeks?

The Australian is really benefiting from much improved certainty around the outlook on interest rates. Interest rates are a key factor in determining the relative strength and weakness of a currency and this is of vital importance for the Australian dollar. Viewed by investors as a good currency to hold because of the higher interest rates, the Australian dollar will rise in value if investors believe that interest rate will go up in the future. If you are buying Australian dollars the shorter term outlook is not great, it is likely the Aussie will make further gains. If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars this information will be vital to the rate in the future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed that they could well be looking to raise interest rates in the future which has helped the Australian dollar to rise against the pound. The pound is actually much weaker too since Inflation has been falling in the UK at the latest release, this reduces the chance of an interest rate hike. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds could see GBPAUD test closer to the 1.60 in the next few weeks but longer term it might well recover. Only two weeks ago we were headed to 1.70 so to be where we are now is a surprise in some respects. Events could quickly change again!

News that might help would be the US dollar strengthening again. The USDAUD rate is of real importance to GBPAUD since as USDAUD is the most heavily traded currency pair, the movements on US dollar to Aussie will ‘weigh’ on GBPAUD rates. So for example lately the US dollar has been weakening, this has helped the Aussie to rise which has affected GBPAUD too.

GBPAUD is on the slide but could quickly make a recovery! Every 1 or 2 cents on a big volume of currency can make a difference of thousands so if you have a transfer to consider and wish to get the best rates and help with the timing of any deal please speak to me Jonathan Watson by eamiling jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates still testing lower levels (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered recently, alongside the rest of the Pound’s pairings, and whilst currently sitting just above 1.64, has hit 1.62 just hours ago.

The underlying factors are there to justify the move. For one the Australian economy is enjoying an unrivalled period of sustained growth and the stability still seems there.

Just today it was reported that full-time jobs has surged to keep unemployment near four-year low, with 14,000 jobs added to the economy in June. The figures are actually stronger than they seem. Actually 62,000 full-time positions were added, whilst 48,000 temporary positions were lost (some of these becoming full-time positions and others being lost due to low tourist season).

What does this mean for rates moving forward?

With the fundamentals established for the AUD to at least maintain its value, the fortune for Australian Dollar buyers using Pounds lies in UK based developments.

We are now into the second round of the first phase of Brexit negotiations. Statements for the Eurozone state explicitly that sufficient progress has to be made here before we can address the key issue which markets are most interested in – trade.

These include the so called ‘divorce bill’, rights for citizens and the Irish border question.

The end of the first talks were formalities, this second round will be very telling at the pace talks are expected to proceed through. Productive conversations should yield greater confidence in Sterling, and the converse should lead to parallel drops.

Personally, based on how talks have progressed so far, I believe that sellers should be facing opportunities next week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Australian Dollar based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

You can contact me directly by calling +44 1494 787 478 and asking the reception team to speak to Joshua.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

Australian Dollar continues to make gains – Will this continue? (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar have a fantastic week against all major currencies following on from both positive growth figures in China and extremely hawkish comments from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) that they would be more than happy to see the cash rate in Australia make its way up to 3.5%.

Any interest rate change or even just the hint of it happening can move the value of a currency, and considering that the RBA have suggested a number of hikes with these comments we have seen the Australian Dollar soar from strength to strength. When an interest rate is raised it does make that currency more attractive to investors and with the rule of supply and demand if more people are interested in buying Australian Dollars then the price will rise.

Tomorrow morning (or overnight tonight for our readers in the U.K) we have Australian unemployment figures and this has the potential to buck the trend. Expectations are for unemployment to have increased from 5.5% to 5.6% an d should this be true then this may buck the trend for the time being.

Personally  I feel this is a prime opportunity at present to sell Australian Dollars as I still do not fully believe the Australian economy is such great shape that the RBA are hinting that it is, also, although China has recently shown good data I still feel there are plenty of issues still to resolve with the huge level of borrowing happening over there.

If you have Australian Dollars to sell or indeed buy then you need to have a proactive and experienced currency broker on your side in turbulent times such as these. If you feel I could be beneficial to you then I would be more than happy to help you. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling 0044 1494 725353 and asking for me and I will be more than happy to explain the process to you and help you put together a plan of action.

Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes Tomorrow (Ben Fletcher)

In the early hours of tomorrow morning the RBA will reveal the minutes of their latest meeting. Whenever a central bank reveals the committee’s thoughts markets can always get excited. Several countries around the globe have started to raise interest rates and the recent strength for the Australian Dollar over the last 9 months suggest Australia may be the next to hike rates.

China which is one of the key influences on the Australian economy last week released positive date and installed further confidence that things are settled. In my opinion it would not surprise me if there is a downward movement in the GBP/AUD rate tomorrow morning and may present a good time for Aussie Dollar sellers. However come tomorrow afternoon the main influence will be Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The UK interest rate conundrum continues on and if Carney makes a hint towards a hike expect a major market movement. Tomorrow could see a good morning for the Aussie Dollar reaching a near month high followed by a return to nearly 1.70 on the GBP/AUD rate.

The end of the week may also bring AUD volatility as there will be a release of June’s unemployment figures. If these are positive expect Aussie Dollar strength, however as always anything negative or unexpected can shock the market.

When the markets are this volatile there will always be spikes and drops, making timing a transfer vital to maximise your funds. If you have any questions with my forecast above or would like to simply discuss an upcoming requirement you have please send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and I may be able to offer a viable solution to help you complete a trade, as I have several years experience working for a brokerage

Rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pound rises (Tom Holian)

The rates to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling has increased during Friday’s trading session after the US inflation data came out lower than expected.

It has already been an interesting week for GBPAUD exchange rates with interest rates having been a key topic in the UK, US and next week in Australia.

The Aussie Dollar is heavily affected by what happens in the US as it will influence global attitude to risk.

With the US posting lower than expected inflation levels this could suggest that an interest rate hike in the US may not be coming as soon as many expect and this has caused a sell off for the US Dollar in favour of the Pound which in turn has caused the Pound to rise against the Australian Dollar.

Next week on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their latest minutes from their interest rate decision held earlier this month.

The RBA were rather neutral in their stance as to what to do next so further evidence of this in my opinion could see Sterling challenge 1.70 levels against the Australian Dollar by the middle of next week.

If you’re intending making a large currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will GBPAUD rise back above 1.70??

The expectation for GBPAUD exchange rate is rather mixed with the pound really struggling to make much headway following a tough week. Tuesday saw GBPAUD drop as members of the Bank of England confirmed they will not be so positive about raising interest rates. The overall belief the pound would rise if the Bank of England raise interest rates has been supporting the pound but this is now looking less likely. The Australian dollar has also been benefiting and rising because the US Federal Reserve have been slightly move dovish (soft) in their approach towards raising interest rates.

If you are buying Australian dollars with pounds there is a belief we could see 1.70 but I think it is more likely the GBPAUD rate will actually drift lower. This is because there are so many negative factors surrounding the pound and I believe market conditions are much more supportive for the Australian dollar to rise. This largely stems from the fact the Australian dollar is a commodity currency and will appreciate in value when investors seek a higher return.

If you need to buy Australian dollars with pounds the short term forecast is not looking so good. Trading conditions seem to favour sterling slipping, I mean just what would actually lead to the pound rising? Uncertainty over the Brexit and the UK economy indicates to me the pound will remain on the back foot. I also believe the Australian dollar will retain much of its strength in this current climate.

If you have a transfer to make then getting all the information available and tracking the latest trends is key to helping maximise your transfer. A 1 cent improvement on a £200,000 transfer buying Australian dollars could achieve you an extra 2000 Australian dollars!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. We are expecting some really interesting movements on the GBPAUD rates, of course it won’t be just downward, there will be spikes to take advantage but you need to be prepared! This is what we can help you to monitor and achieve.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates expected to worsen (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates were taking a clear hammering at the beginning of the week, and very little of it was due to events in Australia.

Events in the UK and globally have played well into the hands of anyone considering selling Australian Dollars to buy Sterling. Just since July 7th they have gained over 4 cents against Sterling with the global climate still pointing to further improvements.

Firstly, the concrete stuff. One of the backtracks on Sterling has come from a reversal in the enthusiasm for an interest rate hike in the UK in the short-term. Slightly lower inflation outlooks mean the pressure to raise rates in order to control prices has lessened, and on Tuesday two members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee confirmed this.

Therefore, without a medium term expectation of a rate hike, a key pillar of support for Sterling has been lost. Making it more likely for further gains for AUD sellers in the short-term.

The other helping hand for sellers came from the US.

Uncertainty surrounding the US Dollar causes capital flight to go elsewhere. Given the relatively high interest rate available in Australia, this can be a key beneficiary in these situations. As investors flee to the AUD, it’s value sees a parallel boost through demand.

The latest Trump scandal comes under that bracket. Could this be the smoking gun for the Trump Presidency? Markets were certainly concerned, the Dollar suffered from a mass sell-off of stocks in reaction to the news.

Whether this scandal will be swept under the rug or continue to undermine confidence in the US political apparatus is the unknown factor here.

However, this does point to renewed urgency for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer to buy Australian Dollars to ‘get their skates on’.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to speak with Joshua.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.