Category Archives: AUD to GBP

GBP/AUD When to move? (Daniel Johnson)

Is there still a rate hike still on the cards form the BOE?

We have seen Sterling fall in value against the Aussie of late following poor retail and inflation data. There was a host of positive data before this including a significant increase in average wage growth and unemployment hitting a 43yr low. We also have a transitional Brexit deal all but agreed with the UK being granted single market access until full exit from the European Union.

It was almost nailed on there would be a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation slowed however, falling below average wage growth and retail sales was predicted to come in at -0.5% in at arrived at a shocking -1.2%. Mark Carney spoke on the BBC following the retail figures and said there is the possibility of monetary policy change, but did not mention May. The markets were fairly stagnant following the data release, but Carney’s words or lack of them caused Sterling to weaken against the majority of major currencies.

Despite this a rate hike is already factored into current levels, if the hike occurs do not expect a huge movement in the pound’s favour, the market moves on rumour as well as fact. The danger is if there is no hike. The pound will lose significant value. It is always worth keeping an eye on Carney’s speech after the rate decision as any hint at a change in monetary policy can cause volatility.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued ant that we are only seeing current levels due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. AUD has been considered an investors choice due to it’s high levels of interest, but now with the USD promising higher returns and further rate hikes combined with it’s reputation as a safe haven currency it is almost a no brainer to move to the  US Dollar. I doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates until 2019 at the earliest.

There is also the ongoing trade war with the US and China. The new tariffs could hit Chinese growth which will in turn hit the Aussie as Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore.

I personally think short to medium term  GBP/AUD will be stuck between buoyancy levels of 1.80-85.

If you are an AUD buyer and have to move short term, aim to move in the 1.84s.

AUD sellers, I would not hang on for significant gains as I feel the Aussie is fragile. Aim for 1.82 on Interbank.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian inflation key to the next move for Australian Dollar exchange rates

The Australian Dollar has had a mixed week, the RBA meeting minutes from the last RBA interest rate decision suggested that we still cannot see any movement for interest rates in sight and both Chinese growth figures and Australian unemployment were fairly solid.

We have not seen a huge amount of volatility for the Australian Dollar off the back of these data sets, and all eyes now will look towards Australian inflation figures which are due out on Tuesday.

Inflation is expected to have got a little higher in Tuesday’s figures and this may lead to a little improvement for the Australian Dollar early in the week, in my opinion though any improvements in the Australian Dollar may be short lived, I still feel that we are set for a period of weakness for Australian Dollar exchange rates.

As I have mentioned in previous posts there are various reasons for this, inclusive of interest rates rising in other economies around the world, Australian economic data not being great, falling commodity prices and global risk sentiment dropping due to political issues and trade wars. The Australian Dollar is classed as a riskier currency so when global tensions are high you tend to see the Australian Dollar lose ground against most major currencies.

Interest rates are vital to the performance of a currency too as a higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors, with areas such as the U.S now raising rates to a level above Australian interest rates we are seeing qwuite a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making the Australian Dollar weaker and cheaper to buy.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance with achieving the best rate and the timing of it all too then you are moire than welcome to contact me directly and I would be more than happy to help you personally. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you to discuss the options available to you.

Sterling suffers against AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Poor inflation and poor Retail Sales data could push back BOE rate hike

We have seen very positive news from the UK of late. We have had UK unemployment come in at a 43yr low, a rise in average wage growth and previous retail sales figures came in at 0.8%, well above the expected 0.4%.

We have also recently had news that a Brexit transitional deal has all but been agreed, with the UK having access to the single market until full exit.

GBP/AUD moved as high as the 1.84s. We have seen the Pound take losses over the last few days however. It first took a hit following a fall in inflation pushing away the probability of a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation has now fallen below average wage growth which some may deem as positive, but if people are making more money and not spending it, it does not bode well for the UK economy.

Yesterday there was a sharp fall in retail sales. There was predicted to be a drop from 0.8% to – 0.5%, but they landed at a shocking – 1.2%. The markets remained muted, which surprised me as this surely brings into question a rate hike in May. There was little Sterling weakness.

It was a dovish speech from the Head of the BOE, Mark Carney to convince investors the hike could be put off until later in the year. The pound weakened as a result.

Despite this I still feel the Aussie is fragile. With no hikes planned by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year and the US dollar proving to be far more attractive to investors due to higher returns and safe haven status I am not convinced we will see GBP/AUD drop below 1.81. If I was an Australian Dollar seller buying the pound I would take advantage of current levels. Aussie Buyers aim for the 1.84s, 1.85 is proving to be a firm resistance point.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

AUD Forecast – AUD Fights Back After Recent Losses (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling came under pressure against the AUD yesterday, following the release of the latest UK inflation data.

GBP/AUD rates have fallen back towards 1.82, a dip of almost 4 cents from last week’s high.

Inflation fell to 2.5%, which was under the markets predicted market figure of 2.7%. Whilst this could be viewed as a positive in the sense that it is creeping back towards the government’s target level of 2%, it has also dampened expectations of a prospective interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE).

This potential rate hike had most likely  been factored in to Sterling’s value, at least to some extent by investors, as such yesterday’s data has dampened the markets expectation and as investors have sold off their Sterling positions.

Looking at the AUD and it had started to find support against the Pound around 1.85, with the realignment welcomed by any clients looking to sell AUD.

One of the main reasons the AUD has struggled of late, is due to pressure on the global markets. Generally, when there is an upturn in global growth currencies such as the AUD will prosper as investors look towards riskier assets, with generally higher interest returns. When the global markets are under pressure, investors will move their funds away from these currencies and back into safer havens such as the USD or CHF.

President Donald Trump’s recent trade tariffs are  putting a huge strain on commodity based currencies such as the AUD, which is why clients holding AUD may wish to take advantage of the current spike and remove any market risk.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What can we expect in the future from GBPAUD exchange rates?

GBPAUD exchange rates have been improving lately reaching some of the best rates to buy Australian dollars with pounds since the Referendum in June 2016. This is very good news for any clients looking to make an international transfer in the future as the last few months have generally been difficult for the pound. The good news may well continue further but with plenty of potential for the pound to struggle clients buying Australian dollars with pounds should I believe be thinking very carefully about what they are aiming for.

The Australian dollar has weakened as a consequence of a much stronger US dollar which is seeing investors transfer their holdings in Australian dollars through to the US dollar. With higher base interest rates than Australia the US dollar has become a much more attractive currency to hold and the previous arguments for holding onto the Australian dollar diminish.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is likely to be very much on course to be raising interest rates down the line but with the UK and also the US likely to be raising interest rates before the RBA, the prospect for the Aussie to weaken further seems high. Expectations for the GBPAUD rate are in my opinion that it will rise further so if you are looking for any transfers in the future and wish for updates on what is likely to happen, please contact myself, Jonathan Watson, directly.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information and thank you for getting in touch.

Best Rates for Buying Australian Dollars – GBP AUD 1.84 (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under pressure as events on the global stage continue to drive the dollar lower. The uncertainty over the potential trade war between the US and China has implications for the Australian dollar too. China is Australia’s largest export market so any slowdown in economic growth in China results in an immediate reduction to Australian exports. The other issue that stems from this is that a global trade war would potentially see a slowdown in economic growth causing some currencies to include the commodity currencies to weaken of which the Australian dollar is one of them.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting above 1.84 which has presented a great opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound has been boosted considerably of late on the back of a brighter outlook on Brexit and the prospect of an imminent interest rate increase in the UK. The Bank of England next meet in May and there is a high chance that the central bank will raise interest rates. This seems particularly likely now that wage growth numbers released yesterday increased for the first time in a year. The Bank of England have been paying very close attention to this data set and the boost is proving very positive for sterling.

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see an improvement assuming the rhetoric on trade tariffs begins to die down. The US is currently renegotiating the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico. You may ask what this has to do with the Australian dollar – In my view any progress on this agreement could signal a turning point for US President Donald Trump with new terms agreed and may start to calm those nerves in the financial markets. As such the Australian dollar could be a beneficiary on any positive developments in the world arena.

To discuss your own requirement and how these events have a direct impact on personal currency transfers then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

 

Chinese data gives the Australian Dollar strength to round off the week

We have seen a little strength for the Australian Dollar as we head to the end of the trading week, following better than expected Chinese economic data released overnight.

Trade surplus in China was a lot better than expected coming in way above expectations of $179bn at a level of $326.1bn, this was seen as good news for the Chinese economy and with China being a huge trading partner for Australia any good news from China can lead to Australian Dollar strength.

We have very little in terms of economic data to come out as the weekend nears, so all eyes will now more than likely be on the RBA interest rate decision meeting minutes which are due out next week. This will show what was discussed at the last Australian interest rate decision and my feelings are that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness after this comes out.

Philip Lowe commented last week that he does not expect to see a rate hike being a possibility for a while, and with the level of household debt and poor wage growth still being a concern for the RBA I believe this will be echoed in the meeting minutes and that will drop the value of the Australian Dollar.

An interest rate hike is usually seen as a positive for a currency and with other major economies currently seeing rate rises we are starting to see the Australian Dollar get left behind. As an example, the interest rate in the U.S is now higher than Australia’s and with the U.S Dollar being seen as a less risky option yet with a more attractive return we are seeing a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar as a result of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

Will GBPAUD rates rise or fall in April?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has been improving overnight as the Australian dollar suffers regarding some slightly worse than expected Chinese economic data. The Aussie has been on the backfoot in recent weeks as investors lose faith in the currency and find better returns elsewhere.

If you have a transfer to make in the future buying Australian dollars then the outlook is looking better as the expectation for the Aussie is that it will continue to weaken in the future. Markets are bracing themselves for a continuing deterioration of the Australian dollar as the US dollar becomes a more attractive currency to hold.

US interest rates rate have been rising which is making it very attractive to hold, investors would rather hold the US dollar than the Aussie at the moment as it is seen as a safer and less risky currency to hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are in a process of holding off making any decisions on interest rates which has seen the currency weaker. The UK too are in a process of raising interest rates which is leading to much-improved levels for the pound.

Essentially the pound and the US dollar are being made to be more attractive to hold than the Australian dollar which has seen the GBPAUD rates rising. They may well improve further in the future, we will have to wait and see exactly what happens with various factors globally, not just concerns in the UK and Australia.

If you have a transfer to make in the future understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key to getting the best rates of exchange. Part of our service is to assist clients with the timing and execution of any currency exchanges, please contact me personally if there is anything you wish to run through or discuss in the future.

Thank you for reading and please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss further.

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Rally on Uncertainty for Commodity Currencies (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has weakened again after coming under pressure from the recent trade tariffs being imposed by China and the US. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is impacted negatively when there is a threat to global growth and that risk is very real in the current climate. With tit for tat trade tariffs being imposed by both nations there have been concerns that things could escalate and end up in a global trade war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping made a conciliatory speech this morning and even suggested opening trade which would include a reduction on import tariffs on vehicles and even hinted at encouraging imports. It follows a tweet from Trump yesterday which highlighted that China has been slapping on tariffs to the tune of 25% whilst in the US that tariff has only been 2.5%

I don’t think anyone is expecting a fully blown trade war but there is still some nervousness about the trade disputes which also moves into the realms of the NAFTA trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The Canadian dollar is another commodity currency also feeling the pinch and how Trump handles these negotiations will almost certainly have a knock on effect on the Aussie.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds could see some more positive movement as the trade disputes intensify but at some point an outcome should be reached and this should be beneficial for the Aussie. Rates for GBP AUD are hovering around 1.83 and are proving to be some of the best levels we have seen for some time. A rally in commodity prices on brighter global outlook could see material gains for the Aussie and reverse the good gains that have been witnessed.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and assistance in making a transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk