Category Archives: AUD to GBP

Australian Dollar Weakens on Trade War Escalations (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under a recent wave of pressure losing ground across most of the major currencies this week. The Aussie has lost more than 4% over the last month with a noticeable fall against the US dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are keeping all option open with regards to interest rate policy and the wording of whether or not interest rates will rise or fall in due course. However the RBA Governor Philip Lowe has indicated that he expects rates to rise and this was made clear when he last spoke.

The reason for the Australian dollars weakness is most likely due to the trade war escalations between the US and China. Whilst I have previously commentated that trade links between Australia and China are very strong and that Australia could be shielded by protectionist behaviour the recent escalation in tariffs is now having a detrimental effect on some of the other commodity currencies such as the Aussie. There is currently a better opportunity to buy Australian dollars.

The concern is that if global growth slows due to a trade war then the riskier currencies likes the Aussie are likely to feel the full force of slower growth and should see their respective currencies weaken. For the moment it’s all eyes on these developments and Trump had really signalled that he would seek to impose another $100 billion of tariffs on Chinese exports if there was like for like retaliation. Expect more developments form this story and potentially additional losses for the Aussie.

GBP AUD

Brexit continues to be the main driver for GBP AUD exchange rates and should see a volatile period ahead with the EU summit next week. British proposals on the future relationship should be made public very shortly and are likely to appear after the EU summit. The response form the EU as to progress so far will be very important for the pound and any escalation in tensions or the
potential for a no deal scenario is likely to result in sterling weakness. There is still an excellent opportunity for clients looking to sell Australian dollars. In my view once a deal thrashed out then the pound should strengthen materially. Although there is a risk of a no deal scenario which would be sterling negative, in my view this does not seem the most likely outcome and I am bullish for the pound in the medium term.

To discuss how these events will directly impact on your own currency requirement and how to achieve the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Hawkish Bank of England comments push the Pound higher, will GBP/AUD breach 1.80 again soon?

Despite the Pound to US Dollar rate trading at a 7-month low against the US Dollar, the currency has actually been boosted against most major currency pairs today.

The reason for the boost to the Pound to Aussie Dollars value can be put down to the Bank of England’s comments and the voting pattern of the Bank of England members. The Aussie Dollar lost a lot of value against the Pound today which is why the focus of this blog is on that particular pair.

There are now 3 members of the Bank of England that wish to increase interest rates in the UK, and this is one of the reasons for today’s boost to Sterling exchange rates. The highest the GBP/AUD pair have hit today is 1.7979 although the pair have since slipped off which to me demonstrates that there may be resistance at the 1.80 mark as we’ve previously seen.

There isn’t expected to be any rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia until next year, so I do think that the Pound will climb against AUD should the hints at a rate hike later in the year from the BoE materialise.

With a quiet end to the week in terms of data I’m expecting to see AUD exchange rates driven by sentiment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

RBA dovish on Monetary Policy Outlook (Daniel Johnson)

RBA Rate Hike appears to be less likely

The Pound has suffered against the majority of major currencies of late. GBP/AUD fell from 1.84 to 1.75 and there has been little reason for optimism fro Aussie buyers. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit along with a host of poor data is holding back the pound considerably.

We did see GBP/AUD rise to as high as 1.79 during yesterday’s trading, but don’t be quick to think there will be further gains. This is more due to Australian Dollar weakness than any Sterling strength.

We have witnessed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deliver a rather negative speech. It was what was not said that casued a stir. The following line was removed from the minutes:

“Members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down”.

I have stated previously I would be surprised to see a rate hike from the RBA and this certainly seems to reaffirm my thoughts.

The pound remains fragile due to Brexit, but the ongoing trade war between the US and China is a concern for the Australian economy due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials. The US Dollar is also a far more attractive option for investors with the high levels of interest.

I am still of the opinion GBP/AUD will remain between 1.75-1.80 short term. Aim for the 1.79s if you are an Australian Dollar buyer and you have to move shortly.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. It is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

Trade Wars weigh on the Australian dollar!

The Australian dollar exchange rate is looking more and more attractive for buyers as uncertainty over the global trade outlook weighs on the currency. Expectations for the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) remain centered around their belief for future interest rate hikes which might well see the Aussie weaken even further in the future.

Trade Wars have weighed on the Australian dollar over the weekend which has seen the currency weaker as investors try to make sense of what the global economic outlook holds in store for the Chinese economy. With the Chinese economy at risk of warring with the US over trade tariffs, the potential for a decline in Chinese economic activity is high. With China being the main trading partner of Australia, the highs and lows of Chinese economic activity do have a direct influence on the price of the Australian dollar.

Overall, the longer term behaviour of the Australian dollar could be directly linked to the outcome from these Trade Wars, many had believed it could all be solvable and it might well pan out this way. However, it is no secret of Trump’s plans to change the terms of trade with China, unless China are making some progress with this, it is unlikely the Aussie will be rising anytime soon.

Trade Wars are not the sole focus and depending on the currency pair you are considering, there are many other elements which could drive the market. For GBPAUD the Bank of England meeting on Thursday could be a driver we need to aware of, clients with any GBPAUD transfers buying or selling Australian dollars, would do well to get in touch before the event to bring themselves fully up to date with the rates and the market.

Thank you for reading and I hope you find our information useful. For more information at no obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Outlook Improves (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar could be set for a stronger period ahead following a series of better economic data helping support the Aussie. Unemployment data released this week arrived better than expected at 5.4% against consensus of 5.5% proving beneficial for the dollar. There is hope that the improvement in the labour market should start to feed through into higher wage growth which is something the Reserve Bank of Australian have been waiting for. The Aussie was also boosted on the back of higher consumer inflation expectations which are pointing to higher prices down under going forward. The data suggests that Australians expect prices for goods and services to climb higher and this is yet another key criteria the RBA are monitoring before any decision is made on potentially raising interest rates. Looking forward the dollar could see a better period ahead and clients looking to sell Australian dollars may see a good window to convert within the next couple of months.

Next week sees the RBA minutes for the meeting earlier this month and may offer clues as to the central banks thinking. Any suggesting the conversation is moving towards raising rates would be seen as good for the Aussie.

The US are widely tipped to impose more trade tariffs on China imminently and this could happen as soon as today. Australia for the moment appear to be relatively protected for this action due to the strong trade ties it has with China.

GBP AUD

There are two major drivers for the GBP AUD pair at present. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars should be aware of the Bank of England meeting next week as any change of tact from Governor Mark Carney could see the pound react. Any suggestion a rate hike could happen in August is likely to see rates for GBP AUD rally. Perhaps more importantly the Brexit withdrawal bill goes back to the House of Lords on Monday after there has been some disagreement in government as to the final wording of the text. This could prove tricky for the Prime Minister and any political tensions here could see the pound come under pressure. My long term view of GBP AUD is for considerable strength so sellers may wish to strike whilst the opportunity is still there.

For more information and guidance on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the right time then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Weak data results in a drop for the Aussie Dollar, where to next for AUD exchange rates?

There’s been a loss for the Aussie Dollar across the board of major currency pairs today, with it’s losses against the Pound and the Japanese Yen being the biggest.

Employment figures down under for May were released this morning, and that caused the Aussie Dollar to drop as the figures released were worse than expected. The figures have got worse in recent months which is another reason for the sell-off of the Aussie Dollar.

Some disappointing data out of out of China recently has also weighed on the Aussie Dollars value, owing to the close trading relationship between the two nations. This isn’t an unusual pattern and those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar should consider this in future.

The poor data out of China has caused China-linked commodity prices and also the Chinese stock market to fall, and this isn’t a great sign for the Aussie Dollar moving forward. Fears surrounding the trade tariff’s potentially put on China by the US are also weighing on AUD exchange rates.

There’s a speech planned by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant Governor Ellis tomorrow. Although no changes to monetary policy down under are expected this year its worth following his comments in case he alludes to future monetary policy changes or even the slowdown in the Australian economy recently.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market move for AUD exchange rates, do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit uncertainty continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling remains fragile due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and poor economic data. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations expect the pound to rally. Unfortunately very little progress is being made. The current point of contention is the Irish border deal. At present Theresa May and David Davis are unable to even agree on a back up deal if a deal on the Irish border cannot be reached. Ideally they would like to have something in place before the EU summit on 28th June. The current situation does not bode well for Sterling.

Recent data releases continue to be poor, manufacturing data this week saw the biggest fall since October 2012 and GDP came in below expectations at 0.2%. Average wage growth also saw a decline, unemployment remained unchanged, but it is important to remember that zero hour contracts are not a stable form of employment.

I am of the opinion there is little justification for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in the coming months and would be surprised to see one this year.

Thing are not all rosy down under however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore. The ongoing trade war with China and US is a concern. If China’s growth drops, so will the demand for Australian goods and services which will hit the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

There are economists with the view there is the possibility of a rate hike from the RBA this year. I am not so confident.

If you are buying Aussies GBP/AUD is currently range bound between 1.75-1.80. Aim for 1.77 + if you have to move short term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Pound vs the Australian Dollar waiting to hear about the EU Withdrawal Bill (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has crept up during today’s trading session and we could be in for a very volatile period over the next 24 hours as the House of Commons will be debating the latest EU Withdrawal Bill.

The bill was rejected previously by the House of Lords and this is the reason why it has been sent to the House of Commons for another review.

Most of the DUP have said that they will side with Theresa May but if some of the Tory back benchers go against the Prime Minister this could cause a big headache for the government and this could result in Sterling weakness against the Australian Dollar.

By the end of Wednesday and going into Thursday morning we should know the update so if you’re concerned about what may happen then it’s probably worth getting your currency organised as we could see a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates over the next couple of days.

During the voting on the bill this afternoon we have seen one member resign over the Brexit talks and there has so far been a lot of in fighting between MPs.

In the morning UK inflation data is due out at 930am and we could see some market movement on Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but ultimately I think it will be the EU withdrawal bill that will cause the most movement.

If we have a positive result then we could see GBPAUD exchange rates head towards 1.80 but if not I expect the Pound to fall below 1.75.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Important news to move Australian dollar exchange rates!

The Australian dollar has been a stronger contender on exchange rates lately as investors back the Australian dollar to potentially improve in the future. This is all owing to the improved expectations we have of late that the Chinese economy will improve further and the global economy is not as badly affected by the Trade Wars.

The Trade Wars and potential future trading activity of the global economy is a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates, if you are looking for improvements for buying or selling the Australian dollar, keeping abreast of the latest developments is key to maximising your overall position. Australian unemployment data next week could be a big driver as attitudes to the economy and the labour market are vital to shifts in the likelihood of the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) to raise interest rates in the future.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then understanding the market and all of your options in advance is highly recommended to help minimise the inherent uncertainty of just where levels could potentially go. On GBPAUD exchange rates we could easily see the rate rise to 1.80 if better UK news and worse information on the Aussie comes into play.

Next week is also crucial as we have the latest US interest rate decision where the market is anticipating further information from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate expectations. This could see the US dollar rise which would weaken the Aussie, their relationship is quite closely linked since both now have similar interest rates but investors might prefer to hold the US dollar as it is seen as a more stable and reliable currency.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key, for more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian Dollar Strength – Economic Outlook Positive

The Australian dollar is in a much better place at present finding considerable support including having made gains in excess of 3% against the pound in the last month. Australian Gross Domestic Product has performed very well climbing to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2018 which has restored some confidence in the Aussie. A small boost in global growth and specifically in the Chinese economy seems to be paying dividends for the Australian dollar and this rally may have further to go. Chinese retails sales data next week could create some market reaction and a strong number could prove beneficial for the Aussie.

As things stand the dollar has not been as adversely affected from the trade tariffs imposed between China and the US. The advantage for Australia is that it shares very close trade ties with China so unless a global trade war escalates that drags Australia in too then this relationship could in fact boost the dollar further. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are seeing a much better opportunity to convert and may wish to consider taking the risk out of the volatile currency markets. Rates for AUD GBP are sitting at 1.7680 and are considerably better than the 1.85 highs seen in recent months.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds should pay very close attention to developments in British politics next week. The Brexit withdrawal bill is finally going to go through the House of Commons and will be voted on. If UK Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to push through her vision of Brexit should Conservative rebels vote against what was in the manifesto then this could spell danger For the Prime Minister and the government. Any vote of no confidence pushed by Labour could see major volatility for sterling exchange rates and major market reaction.

For assistance in making transfer when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk