Category Archives: Australian Dollar Forecast

GBP/AUD Forecast – UK Autumn Budget Update (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates continue to float around 1.75 on the exchange, with the AUD finding plenty of support around this threshold.

With much of this week’s focus on yesterday’s UK Autumn budget, clients holding the AUD may have anticipated a negative market reaction to this and a drop in value for the Pound.

The result was almost a non-event for the currency markets and in truth the budget very rarely has a major impact on exchange rates.

Yesterday’s “safe” budget was always unlikely to throw up any major surprises. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond were already under severe pressure, both inside their own Conservative party and externally as well. The former is trying desperately to rally the country in the wake the on-going stagnant Brexit negotiations, whilst the latter was under the spotlight following the disastrous budget he delivered in March.

The key points delivered by Hammond, included Stamp Duty on all properties valued under £300,000 for first time buyers, higher road tax for diesel cars and an additional 2.8 bn for the NHS.

However, despite these claims economic growth forecasts for the UK were cut, which has been directly attributed to the on-going fall out from Brexit.

Fear over the UK’s economic standing following our eventual separation from the EU continue to drive market sentiment. With investor confidence minimal the Pound is struggling to make any significant inroads against the AUD.

The Australian economy is itself under the microscope somewhat. Rising property prices and an over reliance on their export of raw materials, is predicted to put pressure on the AUD over the coming months. =

Whilst the markets never move simply in one direction, I do not anticipate GBP/AUD to gain any sustainable momentum above 1.75. However, due to the issues mentioned above the Pound may well continue to find enough support above 1.70 as we head towards Christmas.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will GBPAUD exchange rates continue to rise?

Since the end of August the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar and exchange rates have increased by 13 cents (8%). To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into Australian dollars would achieve our clients an additional 26,000 dollars. 

In recent weeks the commentary coming from the Reserve Bank of Australian is that interest rates will remain on hold at 1.5%. There is a strong correlation between the US and Australia. Currency speculators tend to trade between the two and in recent weeks the Federal Reserve have been hinting toward hiking interest rates in December therefore I expect Australian speculators have been selling off the Aussie and buying US dollars.

The pound has also been strengthening in recent months off the back of an interest rate hike in the UK and positive news coming from Brexit negotiations. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May has hinted that the UK and EU are close to securing a deal in regards to EU citizens rights and reports are emerging that the PM is close to offering £38 billion as a divorce settlement bill.

The EU have given the UK a deadline for this Friday for clear progression to be made. Once the statements are released by the UK and EU I expect to see major volatility. Positive news that trade negotiations will start in the upcoming weeks could see GBPAUD exchnage rates rise towards 1.80.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Will the Pound continue to rise against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has continued its recent positive run against the Australian Dollar and overnight it has been suggested that some senior ministers in the UK are putting pressure on the government to increase its offer to the EU to leave.

The next meeting is due to be held in December and if this happens this could take the discussions forward which is clearly a positive for the UK.

Downing Street itself has dismissed the rumours that it is looking to double the ‘divorce bill’ payment but I think we could see an offer from the UK coming fairly soon.

The next Brexit summit is due to take place on 14th-15th December and the main topic for discussion will be the Irish border which has still not yet been sorted.

The RBA released its minutes overnight and this has caused GBPAUD exchange rates to move in an upwards direction as the central bank sees ‘considerable uncertainty’ around wage pressures and therefore any interest rate change is very unlikely which has caused the Australian Dollar to weaken against Sterling.

With tomorrow’s UK Autumn Statement due for release I think we could some volatility coming in the morning so make sure you’re prepared for any market movement.

This could be rather difficult for Chancellor Philip Hammond after he was forced to scrap his previous plan of attempting to raise the level of National Insurance.

The likelihood is that he’ll aim the budget towards younger voters as this was the demographic that the Tories appear to have lost at this year’s election and this could include a big push on housing.

I think we could see some uncertainty during the announcement tomorrow but once we get past this issue I think the Pound could gain even further.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD keep on rising?

The pound to Australia dollar rate has been moving higher on the back of the latest improving economic data for the UK and fresh fears over when the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will raise interest rates. We could see the Federal Reserve in the US raising rates which has been a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates. The strengthening of the US dollar has seen a weaker Australian dollar as they are closely linked.

Any weakening of the Australian dollar lately can be partly attributed to the scaling back of interest rate expectations for the Australian economy. Overall the predictions for the Australian economy had been very strong and this had seen the Aussie stronger. This has been scaled back recently with the Aussie weakening as the RBA scaled back their forecasts.

The US dollar is also a factor as it has been rising, it is looking more than likely that the US will raise their base rate which will see the US dollar stronger. As a higher yielding currency the Australian dollar has been very popular but now the US dollar is challenging its dominance. The market is now bracing itself for lower for longer Australian interest rates which is why the currency has weakened.

with sterling finding some support this trend could continue for longer, the conditions that have created it don’t appear quite ready to subside. For now it appears this market will favour Aussie buyers and any clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds might need some assistance with strategy.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars then please don’t hesitate to let us know so that we can monitor the market and update you on the latest strategies to be aware of in trying to maximise your transfer. If you wish for more information please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Best rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds in 6 months (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit its best rate to buy Australian Dollars since May this year as the antipodean currencies have weakened significantly during the last week of trading.

Australian employment figures are looking very strong and typically this would see help to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound but the RBA have suggested that they do not want to tamper with economic policy whilst the labour market is going well.

Indeed, some recent predictions are that we will not see an interest rate hike until earliest 2019 which is why we have seen GBPAUD exchange rates going in an upwards direction recently.

The Pound has reversed its losses from earlier on this month when it increased interest rates at the Bank of England’s meeting and I think we could see further gains ahead.

With the US Federal Reserve looking more and more likely to raise interest rates at next month’s meeting due to be held on December 13th, it appears as though global investors are moving money away from the riskier commodity based currencies which includes the NZD and AUD, which is another reason for the positive gains seen by the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release their latest set of minutes and I think we could see further weakness for the Australian Dollar if the minutes confirm that interest rates will be kept on hold for quite some time to come.

If you are in the process of selling Australian Dollars into Sterling but don’t have the full amount of funds available at the moment it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me with details of your requirement and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate hits a 5-month high, will the upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Those following the GBP/AUD rate will be aware of the positive moves for the Pound recently, and within the past 24 hours the rate has hit a 5-month high making it a good time for Sterling sellers.

The rate has traded within just 2 and a half cents of the best levels in the last year, so the questions are now being asked as to whether the pair can reach a new 1-year high.

Those with a currency requirement involving the pair should be aware that the Pound isn’t trading in such a strong fashion against many other major currency pairs, and that in my opinion there is potential for the Pound to fall for a number of reasons.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is currently under pressure as rumours build that there a a number of members of her party prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence regarding her position. Should this issue surface I would personally expect to see the Pound fall quite dramatically against the Aussie Dollar amongst other major currencies.

At the same time inflation hasn’t quite hit the high levels the Bank of England was expecting to see so the chances of future rate hikes have diminished somewhat, certainty regarding the short term future.

If you’re following the GBP/AUD rate and would like to be kept updated to any major swings in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Poor wage growth leads to Australian Dollar weakness despite better unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

This week has been a mixed one for the Australian Dollar so far, with a fairly week start and a flatter past 24 hours.

The reason the Australian Dollar lost strength earlier in the week was due to news of slower wage growth than expected.

Wage growth yesterday came out at 0.5% against analyst’s expectations of 0.7% which is the reason why we saw Australian Dollar weakness.

Wage growth is a really important release in the current climate, if wage growth ( the increase in how much people are earning)  is a lot lower than inflation (the increase in the costs of goods and services) then you can generally expect an economy to drop off a little, as people will have less money in their pocket to spend. Bad economic data can then in turn lead to weakness for a currency, and with markets moving well in advance of an event actually happening this is why we are seeing a good opportunity to buy Australian Dollars at present.

Unemployment figures came out today and despite the fact that they actually showed an improvement, the Australian Dollar failed to make any vast improvements against most major currencies.

The rest of the week is fairly quiet but do not be fooled into thinking that the Australian Dollar will remain flat, being perceived as one of the ‘riskier’ currencies there is always the chance of movement should global attitude to risk alter.

Should you be in the position that you need to buy or sell a large amount of Australian Dollars and you would like my help along with a better exchange rate than your bank or current broker then I would love to hear from you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you would like to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to explain how I can assist.

6 month high to buy Australian dollars with pounds!

Overnight disappointing wage growth data has seen the Australian dollar lower and taken it to a 6 month low against the pound. This is presenting the best time in 6 months to buy Australian dollars with pounds, some good news for Australian buyers. Overall the outlook for sterling remains very shaky but we could potentially see some improvements in the coming weeks if we get some clarity on the UK’s Brexit position.

If we look at the state of the pound and its more recent performance against the Australian dollar it has mainly been subject to the whims of the Brexit which has only seen the market lower. If you have a transfer to make in the coming weeks then I would suggest you look to capitalise on this improvement or to certainly be making some plans around these latest developments.

Much has been made of the status of the pound and growing concerns that the UK will ultimately raise interest rates further down the line, this has all supported the pound but sentiments can very quickly change! There is now also a belief that the UK would also get a good deal from the Brexit, personally I would be surprised to see this happen but we will have to see how things develop.

If you are looking to buy or sell the pound against the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is a crucial part of maximising the transaction, understanding the future events that would drive exchange rates will ultimately be crucial to getting the most for your money. As well as getting the very best rates of exchange we also help with forecasting and alerts of certain market moving events and exchange rates.

For more information please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar next week? (Tom Holian)

As predicted in my previous articles the Pound has shaken off the problems against the Australian Dollar following last week’s interest rate decision which saw the GBPAUD exchange rate move in a downwards direction.

The UK economy has proved once again that it is resilient even though politically we are facing the challenge of the ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

GBPAUD exchange rates are once again moving in the right direction breaking through 1.72 on a couple of occasions already this week.

The Brexit talks appear to be moving in the right direction with Theresa May and Michel Barnier both suggesting that behind the scenes progress is being made.

The real issue surrounding Brexit is what the divorce bill will cost and when it will be paid which is one of the sticking points of the discussions.

We have a very eventful week ahead with the release of a number of different economic data due over the next few days.

UK Inflation is due out on Tuesday and this has been a big factor in the recent decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates earlier this month. Therefore, this could also cause a lot of volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates.

Also, next week is the release of UK unemployment data and with the jobs data performing very well during 2017 I think we could see GBPAUD rates improve by the middle of next week which could provide a good opportunity to look at buying Australian Dollars with Pounds.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me with details of your requirement and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

UK economy growth is picking up, will GBP/AUD reach 1.75 again in the near-term future?

The Pound has picked up once again this afternoon after some better than expected economic data, this time in the form of GDP figures has boosted the markets.

This means that UK economic output in the months of July-September grew by 0.4% whereas it’s grown by 0.5% from August-October. This is of course positive news for the Pound and the Pound is now trading around the 1.7250 mark at the time of writing.

The highest the GBP/AUD rate has traded in the last year is 1.7650 so the rate is now within 4 cents of the best levels so it appears that the rate hike last week from the Bank of England has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

The think-tank that produced today’s GDP figures also believes that the Bank of England will have raised interest rates to 2% by 2021 which is a bit more bullish than the comments outlined by the BoE last week when rates were hiked, and I think that the Pound would climb quite considerably from its current levels should such a bullish monetary policy be adopted by the BoE.

The next busy day for economic data is Tuesday next week, so feel free to get in touch in the meantime if you would like to plan around this event, should you have any upcoming currency requirements.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.