Category Archives: Australian Dollar Forecast

Pound to Austrlian dollar predictions: Major volatility expected for pound to Australian dollar exchange rates

Of late mixed outlooks for the Australian dollar has caused the pound to remain range bound against sterling, with GBPAUD fluctuating close to 1.80. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut interest rates and forecasters second guessed that another cut is on the horizon as the RBA would need to follow the trend of its nearest neighbour as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 0.5% as their last meeting. In addition the RBA has even hinted at more unconventional methods such as quantitative easing and history would tell us that this could have a detrimental impact on the value of the Australian dollar.

However in recent RBA minutes, the RBA have stated that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have actually been on the rise in recent months which is positive news for Australia as the housing market is a key cog to Australian economy. Therefore further cuts in interest rates should help the housing market however the RBA will have to think again if house prices continue to rise.

In less than two weeks MPs in the UK will return to the House of Commons and all eyes will turn to the leader of the opposition. Jeremy Corbyn has stated that he will file a motion of confidence against Boris Johnson and it will be interesting to see if any Tory rebels will back Corbyn in a bid to stop a no deal Brexit. Forecasters are suggesting that a no deal Brexit will cause the pound to crash, therefore if Boris is ousted this could help the pound, however if Boris takes the UK out of the EU without a deal this should help clients that are selling Australian dollars to buy pounds.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian housing market causes concern for the Australian Dollar vs the Pound

The Pound has made some gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few days with another increase during today’s trading session.

The market has appeared to have focused less on Brexit and looked closer as to what is happening with the Australian economy.

Westpac has reported more and more clients recently getting in to trouble, which ultimately has led to many clients going in to mortgage arrears which has led to an increase in the number of bank repossessions.

According to reports Westpac has repossessed a total of 550 up from 482 mainly in Western Australia.

ANZ & the National Australia Bank have also reported an increase in mortgage arrears during the previous quarter.

Australian unemployment remains at manageable levels but the increase in repossessions could be a sign of further problems ahead for the Australian economy.

Could the Pound struggle with Johnson in Europe this week?

In the meantime UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel later this week.

This will be followed by a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday. This could cause further movement for Sterling exchange rates as both leaders are likely to stick to their current stance which is no movement on the current EU Withdrawal Bill.

This could cause movement for the Pound as it steers us once again towards the chances of a no deal Brexit and if this is the case this could see the Pound lose some of its gains vs the Australian Dollar later this week.

Therefore, if you’ve got an upcoming requirement to exchange Australian Dollars then make sure you pay close attention to what is happening politically in the UK this week.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that I can save you money on exchange rates when converting Australian Dollars . If you need to buy or sell Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

US/China Trade War hurting AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar Forecast

AUD  has proved fragile of late due to several contributing factors. There are domestic issues, such as the high value of living in high wage growth areas. This is causing Australian residents to cut back on retail spending. One of the key issues at present is the knock on effect from the US/China trade war.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing its’s goods and any effect on Chinese growth can have ramifications on the Australian economy. As the trade war escalates so does the potential for the Australian dollar to weaken. President Trump has recently implemented a further 10% tariff on $300bln worth of Chinese products. The Chinese have retaliated by urging  Chinese businesses  to cease purchasing US agricultural products.

Goldman Sachs believe the trade war could continue for some time which does not bode well for the global economy let alone for Australia who has close economic ties with China.

There is the possibility of further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2019 according to the bank Governor, Philip Lowe. This could cause movement for the Australian dollar.

Despite the problems surrounding the Australian economy unfortunately it seems that the problems surrounding Brexit outweigh those down under. Until there is some sort of clarity surrounding the Brexit debacle, I can find  little reason to justify significant gains for the pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 19yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

Australian Dollar under pressure against the Pound owing to Chinese data

The Australian Dollar has experienced a problem in recent times vs the Pound owing to a number of different factors.

The Australian economy is currently under pressure domestically caused by the cost of living in high wage growth areas.

This is causing Australian citizens to limit their spending but I think the main issue is that of the uncertainty caused by what is happening with the ongoing US China Trade wars.

Australia is heavily reliant on what happens in the world’s second leading economy so any negative effects on Chinese growth can cause problems for the Australian economy.

US President Donald Trump has recently imposed another tariff, this time totaling 10% on US$300bn worth of Chinese goods. This has caused the Chinese to retaliate by attempting to stop Chinese companies from buying agricultural products in the US.

In the meantime Goldman Sachs have suggested that the trade war could continue to rumble on which does not bode well for the Australian economy and therefore this could continue to negatively impact the Australian Dollar vs the Pound.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates a couple of times already this year and I think we could see more rate cuts coming in the future especially if economic data continues to see a slow down in Australia.

On Thursday, Australia will release it latest unemployment figures. Expectations are for a figure of 5.2% in July so anything different could cause movement for GBPAUD exchange rates. Therefore, if you’re planning a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars in the near future make sure you pay close attention to the data.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar news: Australian dollar plummets

The Australian dollar has plummeted against most major currencies overnight, as New Zealand surprised the markets and cut interest rates by 0.5%. The RBNZ cut the cash rate to record lows of 1% which now matches the RBA’s interest rate. The cut follows the news this week that US President Donald Trump has told China another 10% tariffs on $300bn of Chinese imports is on the horizon. In addition the President has now stated that China has artificially devalued their currency in a bid to counteract the tariffs.

Forecasts are suggesting that the RBA could continue to cut interest rates early next year, combining that with lower commodity prices such as iron ore, further pressure could be on the horizon for the Australian dollar.

Pound to Australian dollar news

The pound has recovered slightly against the Australian dollar and mid market exchange rates have increased past 1.80, however I am putting this down to Australian dollar weakness not sterling strength. In fact the pound has been losing value against most major currencies this summer due to the ongoing Brexit saga. At present Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s position is that the UK will be leaving the EU without a deal by October, if the EU do no renegotiate.

The spike we have seen for Australian dollar buyers with pounds, should be considered as it looks like a vote of no confidence is on the horizon in the UK once MPs return from their summer break.  If this occurs the pound could face another bout of pressure.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer excellent exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast (Daniel Johnson)

Inflation & US/China trade war a concern for Australian Dollar Investors

The Pound has lost ground against the Australian Dollar of late which can be largely attributed to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit.  Australia has had it’s own trouble however.  Inflation continues to be a problem down under and it is still some way behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s  (RBA) 2-3% target. The RBA cut rates earlier in the year to 1% in an attempt to combat inflation and there is the possibility of further rate cuts during 2019. The next interest rate decision is due during the early hours of tomorrow and although rates are expected to remain unchanged the statement following the decision from the RBA could influence markets if it is again reiterated there is the possibility of further cuts later down the road.

The heavy reliance on China purchasing Australia’s exports is also causing problems for the Australian Dollar. As the US impose increased tariffs on China, China’s growth slows which in turn has a knock on effect to the Australian economy. Investors are choosing to move away from riskier commodity based currencies in favour of save haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or US Dollar.

Increasing probability of a Brexit No Deal

Despite the problems in Australia, Sterling still could face further losses. Boris continues to threaten no deal and stated last week he would be ‘turbocharging’ preparations to leave the EU without a deal. Boris is using the threat of a no deal as ammunition to gain a more favourable deal on Brexit. Basically speaking however, the higher the probability of a no deal the weaker you would expect the Pound to become. Brussels stance remains unchanged again reiterating there will be no concessions to the current deal on the table. It is not in Brussels interest to let the UK leave with a decent deal, they do not want other members of the bloc to consider following suit.

The timeline is also a concern. The parliamentary recess concludes 3rd September leaving less than 8 weeks to get a deal in place, keep in mind Theresa May had two and a half years. According to Bet Fair there is a 57% chance of a general election, if you look at when previous elections have taken place the currency in question tends to considerably weaken.  The British 2010 general election serves as testament to this.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are authorised with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading

GBP/AUD rate remain under pressure as Bank of England cuts growth forecast

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate remains close to the lowest levels seen in over 6-months as pressure continues to mount on the Pound across the board of major currency pairs. Since becoming Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ramped up the no-deal Brexit rhetoric and this has rattled the markets which has seen the Pound lose considerable value over the past month or so as his appointment as Prime Minister became a forgone conclusion.

Yesterday the Bank of England opted to hold interest rates where they currently are, but the highlight of the day was BoE governor Mark Carney’s warnings regarding the economic outlook for the UK economy now that a no-deal is looking increasingly likely.

The BoE now expects to see a 33% chance of a recession due to Brexit uncertainty, and earlier in the day the new government outlined plans to spend up to £2.1bn on no-deal Brexit preparations which demonstrates the intent of the new government.

The growth forecast for the UK this year has been cut to 1.3% from the previous 1.6% expectations, and much of the slowing economy is being put down to both uncertainty as well as a lack of foreign investment.

Moving forward we could also see the Aussie Dollar come under pressure, as this week US President Donald Trump has outlined plans for additional tariffs on China and trade talks between the two appear to have stalled once again which has seen a global stock market sell-off. A slowing of the Chinese economy would likely result in a weaker AUD due to the interconnectedness of the two economies.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar forecast – Will the Aussie weaken?

The Australian dollar has been stronger in recent weeks as investors back the currency, following a series of events which were originally predicted to weaken the currency. Firstly, we saw the trade wars of the last 2 years escalating to the point the Australian central bank were keen to cut interest rates. This saw pound to Australian dollar exchange rates rise to almost 1.88 on the interbank rate. We are currently 1.77, and part of the reason for this is a much stronger Australian currency.

The pound has also weakened following the continued uncertainty relating to the Brexit, which so far has seen the pound losing value as no-deal Brexit becomes more likely, as both Conservative leadership candidates look to keep a no-deal Brexit as an option. It has been said Boris is perhaps more keen on no-deal, with the possibility of him as leader opening a greater prospect of this market viewed, potentially pound sinking option.

This week will see increased news also on Australian interest rate prospects, with the latest Speech by RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) Assistant Governor Kent potentially offering up some news. The market is eagerly awaiting to see if the RBA will be looking to cut levels again in the future, the market has been getting mioxed signals with Chinese growth coming in at 27-year low, but still continuing world beating growth and creating demand for Australian exports.

GBPAUD levels could be influenced by the latest news on the Brexit from the new UK Prime Minister, who will be announced tomorrow morning, before being sworn in on Wednesday evening with a speech planned for around 5pm. Any clients with an interest in GBPAUD exchange rates have plenty of news to be conscious of for this week ahead, please do contact our team to learn more.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you soon, Jonathan Watson – jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar highest against the Pound since January 2019

Last night the Reserve Bank of Australia published their latest set of minutes. The focus was aimed at the labour market as well as monitoring economic growth.

Earlier this month the RBA cut interest rates to just 1% which is now the lowest rate in history for Australia.

The general feeling is that the RBA will keep interest rates on hold but are ready to cut further if necessary.

One problem that the central bank faces is that as interest rates are at record lows this leaves them little room to cut even further.

On Thursday of this week the latest set of Australian unemployment data is due to be released.

Depending on the announcement, this could cause some movement for GBPAUD exchange rates so if you’re in the process of transferring Australian Dollars pay close attention to what impact this may have on exchange rates.

Over the weekend Chinese GDP data was published. The growth figures showed 6.2% which was similar to what was forecast.

The data was the lowest level since 1992 so although it is falling it is still extremely high compared to other Western economies.

GBPAUD exchange rates are now trading at their lowest level since January 2019 creating some excellent opportunities to sell Australian Dollars to buy Pounds.

Early next week the UK leadership election should be concluded.

The likely winner is Boris Johnson but whilst there is still some uncertainty as to who will become the next Prime Minister the Pound is facing some uncertainty.

Therefore, once we have a new leader in place could this provide the Pound with a small boost against a number of different currencies including vs the Australian Dollar?

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank so please contact me directly for a free quote.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Australian Dollar set to improve further against the Pound?

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates this week to its lowest level in history at 1%. As it was widely expected the markets priced in the rate cut so the value of the Australian Dollar did not feel too much of an impact.

The RBA also hinted that it may be prepared to cut interest rates even further. Since June the RBA has cut rates by 0.5% and so I think the RBA may be tempted to adopt a wait and see approach before changing monetary policy once again.

With the markets expecting interest rates to be cut to 0.75% the GBPAUD exchange rate did not move too much as there was little reason to sell the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe is due to be speaking on Tuesday and his speech should provide further clues as to when they may make further changes to policy.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of converting Australian Dollars then make sure you pay close attention to Lowe’s speech next week.

The Australian Dollar also improved during the course of this week owing to the latest trade surplus figures on Wednesday. The increase in the goods and services surplus came about owing to the increase in the export market in May.

The other good news came from the Australian housing market as building approvals increased. Although house prices have fallen in recent times down under, the increase in building approvals should be taken as a positive as it means there is an appetite for making money once again in the property market.

Whilst the UK continues to struggle with the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the leadership election I think we could see further improvements in the value of the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars and Sterling then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk