Category Archives: Australian Dollar Forecast

The Trump Factor and impact on the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

With Donald Trump now having been officially inaugurated into the White House it appears as though the US Dollar has fallen as investors review his first speech.

In what was a relatively protectionist tone we could see a global flight to safety which means global investors seek to move money into the US economy and away from riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar.

The US economy has gone from strength to strength during 2016 and this is one of the reasons for the strength of the Australian Dollar against Sterling for the last few months.

However, could we now see some weakness on the horizon for the Australian Dollar against the Pound?

With Prime Minister Theresa May coming out earlier this week and being rather bullish in her speech concerning Brexit the Pound quickly made some very strong gains vs the Australian Dollar providing some much needed respite from the problems seen recently.

There is little economic data due out next week for the UK and Australia until Wednesday so I expect GBPAUD rates to be driven by sentiment towards Donald Trump’s first few days in office and therefore we could see Sterling make some further gains vs the Australian Dollar.

If you’re in the process of needing to either buy or sell Australian Dollars and are concerned about what may happen between GBPAUD rates in the next few weeks as the Brexit talks continue to dominate the headlines then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank or other currency broker then feel free to contact me for further information or for a free quote. Having worked in the industry since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling holds on to it’s recent gains versus the Australia Dollar, will GBP/AUD approach 1.70 once again? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been climbing since Tuesday when the UK PM, Theresa May gave clarity to the UK Governments Brexit plans.

Uncertainty almost always weighs on the underlying currency in question and the Pound had felt the effects prior to her speech on Tuesday, but in it’s wake the Pound had one of it’s best days in years and gained against the US Dollar by it’s largest margin since 2008.

At the time of writing the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading around the 1.63 mark and I wouldn’t rule out a move above 1.65 if the positive sentiment surrounding the Pound continues.

It’s also important to note that today is the day of Trump’s inauguration in the US, and due to the potential impact of his Presidency right from the onset, I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors lose interest in risk-correlated currency such as AUD, and prefer to hold funds within safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen. Should this be the case it’s likely that the Aussie Dollar will suffer, which could aide the GBP/AUD pair and push it above 1.65.

There are no major economic data releases today out of the UK or Australia so I expect sentiment and Trump’s inauguration to drive the pair, and moving forward if you wish to be kept updated with key data releases feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Theresa May Boost sterling’s Value! – Will This Trend Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates spiked during yesterday’s trading, with the pair gaining almost two cents.

The Pound hit 1.6422 at the high before retracting slightly today slightly today, with the AUD finding support moving it back towards 1.63.

Sterling’s value had soared, following UK Prime Minister Theresa may’s speech regarding the UK’s Brexit.

This was her most detailed speech to date regarding how the government hopes to facilitate our exit from the EU, with Article 50 still scheduled to be triggered in March to start the formal process.

The Pound benefited from positive comments regarding a future relationship with the remaining EU states and made significant gains against all the major currencies.

The markets have been left in limbo for months regarding how the UK economy intends to prosper following our exit, so yesterday’s more detailed plan will have come as a relief to investors who have been craving some solid information to work with. Personally, I don’t think the speech gave us a real insight into future policies but of course the noises being made were that the UK would create a stronger economy, which still had a relationship with our closest neighbours.

Theresa May did state that we would no longer be part of the single market but hoped for new custom arrangements with the remaining 27 EU states and that we would still contribute to the EU budget but wasn’t specific regarding how much.

The AUD has benefited from a run of positive economic data and the uncertainty surround the UK economy at present. However, due to the fact the AUD is a commodity based currency and as such relies heavily on its export trade, in particular the export of its raw materials to China, any global slowdown in this sector will hit their economy hard and the AUD would likely lose value as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Theresa May’s Brexit speech causes Sterling rally (Daniel Johnson)

May causes volatility on GBP/AUD

Theresa May spoke yesterday in took some of the uncertainty away from the markets buy outlining her intentions in regards to a UK exit from the EU.

She stated the UK can not remain in the single market as this would mean not leaving the EU at all. She did also announce that any agreement with the European Union would allow the freest possible trade in goods and services.” Investor confidence was returned and GBP/AUD currently sits in the 1.63.

EU leaders have stated the freedom of goods, services and workers is not realistic if there is restrictions on the free movement of people within the EU.

Personally, I think this is a very positive move for the UK, giving some clarity brexit. But it is important to realise it may not all be rosy from this point. I feel trade negotiation targets need to be extended from the current target of two years. Sir Ivan Rogers, UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned over the unrealistic time scale for exit and insufficient planning. Rogers thinks trade negotiations could take as long as ten years.

The US have been very forthcoming about getting a trade deal in place which should bring more confidence to investors, however it is important to look at the history of the US in previous trade negotiations. The quickest of which took four years.

US Interest Rate Levels could cause investors to leave the Australian Dollar

In December the Federal Reserve rose US interest rates and forward guidance has indicated there could be as many three more during 2017. Although forward guidance can be taken with a pinch of salt, this years guidance does bare more credence. Data from the US has been very positive and it seems Yellen will find it difficult to keeping rates on hold. It will be the popular destination for investors with higher return than previously and also a higher level of safety than the Australian Dollar. Employment figures have been dwindling down under and there has been large falls of employment in the mining sector. There are also rumours circulating Australia could lose its AAA credit rating which means the Aussie could be in for a rough year.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker to try and maximise your return. I will be happy to provide a free strategy and also provide a rate comparison against your current provider should you have one. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Australian Dollar gains on USD and other majors – Drops against the Pound following ‘Brexit’ Speech (Daniel Wright)

Today turned out to be a mixed day for Australian Dollar exchange rates, seeing gains against the U.S Dollar yet losing a great deal against Sterling.

The main reason for this is that the Pound had the best day we have seen in months, posting large gains against every major currency which included a 2% gain over the Australian Dollar and led to the U.S Dollar falling across the board too.

For those looking to sell Australian Dollars and buy Sterling this may be the start of the trend turning around but only the next 24/48 hours will give us a true indication as to whether this is just a knee-jerk reaction or whether we are about to see Sterling exchange rates pick up dramatically.

If you are holding Australian Dollars and you need to bring them back into Sterling then now may be the time to act. We are only a few percent away from the best time to do this in three years and now that Sterling is creeping back into fashion this may be the time to start seriously considering the options available to you.

Today we have Consumer Confidence figures in Australia and tomorrow we will be focusing on unemployment data over in Australia, not to mention the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday in the U.K so we still have an extremely busy week to come for both the Australian Dollar and the Pound.

If you are in the position where you may need to buy or sell Australian Dollars for Sterling, Euros, Dollars or New Zealand Dollars in the near future then I can help you both in terms of getting a better price than other well known brokers in Australia and the U.K, along with offering an extremely proactive  and friendly service to help you maximise your exchange rates.

If you are in the position where you may appreciate my help or if you would merely like a simple quote to check that you are getting the best exchange rate you can then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you need and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

Will the Pound fall further against the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound has fallen against the Australian Dollar by almost ten cents since the turn of the year as the pressure on Sterling mounts.

Sterling has really struggled against all major currencies and as the price of iron ore has been rising recently this has seen the Australian Dollar strengthen against the Pound.

The Aussie Dollar is a commodity based currency and as such if the price of commodities rises, which in this case they have, then typically we see Australian Dollar strength vs Sterling.

With things seemingly going from bad to worse in the UK as the government eagerly anticipates the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling and Theresa May’s speech later today concerning her plans for Brexit if both go the wrong way we could see GBPAUD exchange rates fall below 1.60.

Theresa May has previously suggested that the UK may opt for a hard Brexit and if this is the case we could see problems ahead for Sterling against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar.

Although clearly the political impact will have more of an effect on Sterling vs the Australian Dollar we also see the release of economic data down under in the form of Unemployment data. The expectation is for 5.7% so any change could cause further volatility for the currency pair.

One option to consider if you need to buy currency in the weeks ahead and are worried about the ongoing uncertainty you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you need to buy or sell Australian Dollars and would like further information or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Could GBPAUD break through 1.60? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the start of 2017 GBPAUD exchange rates have dropped from 1.7150 to 1.6250. To put this into monetary terms a 200,000 Australian dollar is now £6,458. For people converting sterling into Australian dollars or Australian dollars into sterling in the upcoming weeks or months the question they need to be asking is what has changed?

UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced last week ‘We’re leaving, we’re coming out, we’re not going to be a member of the EU.’ Within the same interview she also exclaimed that the UK would take back control of its borders whilst trying to negotiate a deal within the single market.

With EU leaders exclaiming to remain part of the single market the UK must adhere to free movement of people, it was no surprise the pound crashed after Mrs May’s comments.

National newspapers from the UK are suggesting the PM will suprisingly announce the UK is prepared to leave the single market on Tuesday. This is a change of tune from Mrs May and if true, I expect GBPAUD could break through 1.60.

If you are buying Australian dollars within the next 3 months it looks like your transfer will become more expensive the longer you procrastinate. If you are waiting for your sterling to become available we offer a forward contract which allow you to secure your rate now and you can pay later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound continue to fall against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar is now at its lowest level in over 2 months as the Brexit issue continues to negatively affect the value of the Pound against all major currencies.

Our Prime Minister Theresa May has still yet to confirm whether the UK will choose to follow a soft or a hard Brexit and this is what is causing the ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates against the Australian Dollar.

Until we have a clearer indication as to which route the UK will choose this is likely to keep Sterling under pressure.

With Theresa May due to address the markets on Tuesday we could see some volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates depending on what she has to say.

The issue is that if we opt for a hard Brexit this means removing ourselves from the single market which is what has caused the demise in Sterling in recent weeks and months.

Indeed, since June when the vote to leave the European Union took place we have seen losses of over 40 cents for GBPAUD exchange rates.

The price of iron ore has risen recently which has also helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As the AUD is a commodity based currency any increase in the value of commodities or raw materials helps to strengthen the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

With the Supreme Court judgement due shortly I think this could help the situation as it will allow the Prime Minister to provide a clearer future for the UK but until then Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.

In the short term I expect the Pound to continue to struggle against the Australian Dollar so if you need to send money down under in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also able with my experience to help you with the timing of your transfer.

To find out more or if you’d like a free quote when buying or selling currency then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Iron ore rally triggers Pound sell-off, will the GBPAUD exchange rate continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

The GBP/AUD exchange rate is currently trading close to a 2 month low for a number of reasons, with the likelihood being that the Pound will continue to see weakness in my opinion.

The Aussie Dollar is what’s known as a commodity currency as it relies heavily on exports, and with the price of iron ore surging the Aussies value has been boosted. At the same time Brexit jitters are really beginning to weigh on the Pound’s value as currency markets await the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision on whether or not the UK government require parliamentary approval, before invoking Article 50 and initiating the Brexit process.

The Pound has lost value across the board this week after a much talked about interview with Theresa May offered the marketplace an idea of the PM’s plans for the Brexit. Many viewed her comments to carry a ‘Hard Brexit’ bias although she denies this, irrespective of her claim the Pound has been sold off heavily in the wake of her comments with the UK not being able to keep ‘bits’ of EU membership being one of the stand out comments.

The general consensus from the interview was that the Government will be focusing on restricting immigration as opposed to retaining access to the EU’s single market, and the Pound has been softening since this interview.

The outcome of the Governments appeal to the Supreme Court is expected to be released within the next few days, although the exact date is unknown so feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date with how this event unfolds.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

Selling Australian Dollars ahead of Supreme Court Ruling (James Lovick)

GBP AUD exchange rates are on tenterhooks at present as we all eagerly await the Supreme Court ruling on whether or not UK Prime Minister Theresa May must consult Parliament before invoking Article 50, the formal process to withdraw from the European Union. This topic has been discussed at length on this blog but I cannot emphasise how important the decision is and how much of an impact it will have on the price of sterling.

It has been reported this afternoon that Theresa May will be making a speech surrounding Brexit on Tuesday of next week. This is likely to create volatility and will also fall around the time of the Supreme Court ruling. The Supreme Court normally releases its verdicts on a Wednesday although this is by no means a requirement or guaranteed in any way.

However it would be quite fitting that Theresa May makes a speech next Tuesday with the outcome to follow from the Supreme Court the day after. It is my understanding that the government has requested early viewing of the outcome to put preparations in place in light of the seriousness of this case. Next week looks set to be a rollercoaster for any clients buying or selling Australian dollars and there could be some very good opportunities.

Those clients with a requirement to buy Australian dollars would be wise to get in touch as there is a risk that the pound could fall sharply. The flip side is that if Theresa May loses the appeal the sterling is likely to move higher.

Data is light as we end this week so it will be politics largely driving the markets. Australian home loans, vehicle sales and consumer confidence are all released next week which will give clues as the performance of the Australian economy.

If you would like further information on buying or selling Australian dollars and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk