Category Archives: Australian Dollar Forecast

GBP to AUD Rate Gains Ahead of Australian Unemployment

The GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate has gained in the last day, in part ahead of Australia’s unemployment statistics for December, released this Thursday 23rd at 00.30 GMT.

It’s forecast that joblessness Down Under rose by 0.1% last month, up to 5.3%, while Australian companies are predicted to have created just 15,000 new positions, from November’s 39,900 gains.

If these forecasts are accurate, they would suggest that Australia’s job market has slowed, further away from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target jobless rate of 4.5%.

This, combined with Australia’s ongoing bush fires, may convince the RBA to cut interest rates below their current 0.75%, when the central bank next meets on February 4th. Historically, lower interest rates tend to weaken the value of the AUD.

Looking Ahead


Another factor why the sterling vs Australian dollar interbank exchange rate has gained, is because there have been reports of a new coronavirus in China, Australia’s closest trading partner.

Seemingly, over 200 people in the southern city of Wuhan have been struck by a similar type of virus to the SARS that killed 700 people in 2003.

This has weakened the Australian dollar, because if China imposes a quarantine, and bans China’s citizens from travelling abroad, then fewer Chinese tourists could visit Australia this year. Chinese visits are a significant driver of Australia’s tourist industry.

For more pound and AUD news, keep up to date with our daily blogs. Alternatively, if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me, Daniel Johnson directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP to AUD weakens as Javid signals UK/EU trade divergence

The GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate has fallen over the weekend, in part because UK Chancellor of The Exchequer, Savid Javid, has said that he expects the UK and EU to diverge, in the upcoming trade talks.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr. Javid said: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule taker, we will not be in the single market and we will not be in the customs union – and we will do this by the end of the year.”

This has weakened sterling, because up until now, it was hoped that the UK and EU would retain as close regulatory alignment as possible, to maximise imports and exports between the two, and foster economic growth.

US-China Trade Deal


last week, the USA and China finally signed their “first phase” trade pact.

Beijing has promised to buy billions worth of US farm and manufacturing goods, while Washington has stopped calling China a currency manipulator, among other things. Also, the two countries have avoided ratcheting up their tariffs on each other.

This has benefited the Australian dollar, because China is Australia’s closest export partner, and the antipodean nation also trades with the USA. So when there’s good Chinese economic news, this tends to benefit the AUD.

Looking Ahead

Turning to this week, it’s a bumper week for UK and Australian economic data.

On Thursday 23rd at 00.30 GMT, we’ll learn Australia’s unemployment statistics for December, which are forecast to rise by 0.1%, to 5.3%.

The UK’s “flash” PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) for this month will go live on Friday 24th at 09.30. Depending on whether the data show a UK post-election bounce or not, this may convince the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain or cut interest rates from their current 0.75%.

If you are in the process of buying or selling Australian dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly, Tom Holian, I look forward to hearing from you.teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP vs AUD Strengthens as Markets Unsure If BoE Will Cut Rates

Sterling has strengthened versus the Australian dollar, in part because markets are increasingly unsure if the Bank of England (BoE) will cut UK interest rates, when the central bank next convenes on January 30th.

Since late last week, investors have been raising the odds that the BoE may cut borrowing costs from 0.75% back to their all-time low of 0.5%. Although now, markets are also considering the possibility that the central bank might stay its hand.

Pound Strengthens on Signs of “Green Shoots”, Ahead of Next Week’s PMIs


There are signs of economic “green shoots” in the UK, following the Conservative Party’s decisive election win last month.

It’s thought that, for UK businesses, this has provided a degree of certainty both about the UK’s economic outlook, and regarding Brexit. As such, CEOs are beginning to raise their investment intentions.

For example, an Institute of Directors survey this week has found that, at the end of December, firms were their most confident about the outlook for the next year than any time since the survey started in January 2018.

In particular, the financial markets are waiting to see if there’s a post-election bounce, at next Friday 24th’s IHS Markit “flash” PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) for January 2020.

These will be the first clear indicator of whether activity has picked up in the UK’s key services and manufacturing industries, following the election.

Hence, depending on whether the data are upbeat or not, the BoE may be more or less likely to cut interest rates toward the end of this month. In turn, this could affect the pound.

Australian Dollar Could Be Affected, as RBA May Cut in Early February

Meanwhile, looking Down Under, investors continue to weigh the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates, when it next meets on February 4th.

If so, this would be to support the economy, during the ongoing bush fires. Were the RBA to cut borrowing costs from 0.75% down to 0.5%, their all-time low, this would traditionally weaken the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars please contact me, James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Steady as Markets Consider BoE and RBA Rate Cuts

The GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate remains supported at its current levels, in part because the financial markets are considering the possibilities that the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could cut interest rates in the foreseeable future, although for different reasons.

Looking at the UK first, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, as the BoE is affectionately known, could cut interest rates, because UK inflation fell further in December.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, UK price pressures eased by 0.2% last month, down to 1.3%, further below the BoE’s official 2.0% target.

Generally, falling inflation points to a slower economy. So this could convince the UK central bank to ease monetary policy to support the economy in early 2020. The BoE makes its next interest rate decision on January 30th, so we’ll see what they decide, and its effect on sterling.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that several BoE policymakers have made remarks recently, suggesting that they might vote to cut UK interest rates, if economic growth doesn’t pick up.

Since last Thursday, Governor Mark Carney, as well as three other colleagues on the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have all suggested that they might vote to ease monetary policy from 0.75%, back to 0.5%.

For example, yesterday MPC member Michael Saunders told a college in Northern Ireland that “it probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy stance.” So this too is weighing on the value of sterling.

Australia’s central bank is being increasingly tipped to cut interest rates, also below their current 0.75% to an all-time low of 0.5%.

In the RBA’s case, this is because bush fires are destroying vast swathes of Australia’s territory, weakening both household and business confidence.

As a result, the Reserve Bank might lower borrowing costs, to try and support the economy during this natural disaster. The RBA next meets on February 4th, so we’ll see their decision, and its effect on the AUD.

For more pound and AUD news, keep up to date with our daily blogs. Alternatively, if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling vs Australian Dollar Rises as RBA Forecast Interest Rate Cut in February

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate stands at 1.8853 today. By comparison, yesterday, sterling was as low as 1.8774 versus the so-called Aussie, so it’s since strengthened by 0.42%, or over 0.75 cents.

The GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate has strengthened overnight, in part because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being increasingly tipped to cut Australia’s interest rates in the coming weeks. In particular, it’s thought that the RBA may reduce Australia’s borrowing costs from their current 0.75%, down to a new all-time low of 0.5%, at the central bank’s next meeting on February 4th. This is because, for several weeks now, bush fires have ravaged significant parts of Australia’s territory, destroying thousands of homes and costing dozens of lives. So while the authorities seek to control and alleviate this natural disaster, the RBA might cut Australia’s borrowing costs, to support the economy. However, lower interest rates tend to weaken the value of the AUD.

GBP to AUD Higher, Even as UK Inflation Weakens in December

The sterling vs Australian dollar interbank exchange rate has risen, even though the UK’s inflation rose less than forecast in December, according to official statistics released today.

UK price pressures increased by 1.3% last month, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today, below forecasts for 1.5%, as well as increasingly below the Bank of England’s (BoE) official target of 2.0%. Low price pressures tend to point to a sluggish economy, so this may affect the value of sterling, looking ahead.

Lower UK Inflation Adds to BoE Case to Cut, Might Impact Sterling

In particular, today’s low UK inflation figures add to the BoE’s mounting case to cut UK interest rates. Since last Thursday, central bank Governor Mark Carney, as well as his colleagues Silvana Tenreyro and Gertjan Vlieghe, have all suggested that they might vote to cut Britain’s borrowing costs, if the economy doesn’t pick up in early 2020.

Already at the BoE’s interest rate decision in November, Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskell both voted to cut UK borrowing costs.

So if three more members join them, of the BoE’s nine-person Monetary Policy Committee, this raises the possibility that the central bank may lower UK interest rates below their current 0.75%, to 0.5%, in the foreseeable future. This too could impact the pound.

For more pound and AUD news, keep up to date with our daily blogs. Alternatively, if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP to AUD on Back Foot on Rising Odds of BoE Interest Rate Cut

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate stands at 1.8813 today on the interbank, at the time of writing. By comparison, back on January 8th, sterling was as high as 1.9154 versus the so-called Aussie, so it’s since weakened by around 3.5 cents, or by 1.78%.

The GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate remains on the back foot, in part because the financial markets are increasingly factoring in the possibility that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut UK interest rates later this month.

According to investors, there’s now a 52% chance that the central bank will reduce UK borrowing costs below their current 0.75%, up from a 5% possibility earlier this month. This is because, since last Thursday, three BoE policymakers have made comments, suggesting that they may vote to reduce UK interest rates, if Britain’s economy doesn’t accelerate in the foreseeable future. For example, BoE Governor Mark Carney said last Thursday that, if UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) doesn’t accelerate, it could prompt a “relatively prompt response” from the central bank. In turn, this has weakened the pound.

Pound Might Be Affected, if UK Economy Accelerates in Early 2020

However, looking forward, sterling’s value versus the Australian dollar might be affected, if the UK economy grows faster. For example, yesterday we learnt that, between October to November, UK GDP grew by 0.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above economists’ forecasts for a 0.1% decline. This is even though Britain’s economy shrank by 0.3% in November.

Similarly, watchdog IHS Markit recently reported that UK business confidence has risen, following the Conservative Party’s victory at the general election last month. In part, this is because the Tories’ win brings a degree of predictability to the Brexit outlook, which in turn might impact the pound.

AUD Could Be Influenced by Bush Fires, RBA Response

In addition, the GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate might also be influenced, by Australia’s continuing bush fires. As the natural disaster burns vast swathes of Australia’s land, households and businesses may respond by spending less.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is increasingly being tipped to cut Australia’s interest rates, down to 0.5%, to support the economy. The RBA’s next meeting is on February 4th, which might affect the AUD.

For more information on AUD exchange rates for an upcoming currency transfer, you cam email me, Matt Vassallo, directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Positive Turnaround for the AUD Eases off RBA Cuts in February as GBP Awaits Economic Data

The Australian Dollar has taken a turn for the better as the new week gets underway. Recent performances from AUD have been lacklustre and paired with the ongoing bushfires that engulf the countries resources, Australia did not start the year on the front foot. However, it now appears that AUD could be getting back on the right track as both retail sales figures and global factors come in to support the currency. Meanwhile, GBP awaits important data which is due to be released this week. The first will come today in the form of November’s GDP number. Investors will be hoping for positive data as the BoE upped the ante on the potential of a rate cut for GBP in the future, but the Sterling isn’t priced for a rate cut any time soon.

AUD Picks Itself out of Poor Performing Run Thanks to Retails Sales Figures


AUD has been under pressure lately, both from poor economic data and the bushfires which are ongoing throughout the country. The fires have taken a huge amount of the countries resources and have diverted these resources from their usual pathways which is likely to influence Australia’s economic figures. Luckily, AUD received positive news in the form of November’s retail sales. The figures showed a strong 0.9% rise for the month. This beat the expectations which were set at 0.4%. The data came as a broad-based rally in global stock and commodity markets, which usually has a beneficial supportive environment for AUD. The comeback from AUD saw the GBP/AUD exchange rate slip as AUD edged up on GBP. However, recent reports have suggested that the economic impact of the bushfires has been significant enough to seriously consider an interest rate cut, this boosted the odds of a cut up to above 50%.

GBP Waits on Important Economic Data Which Could Settled the Score With AUD Rates


As AUD performed and edged up on GBP, the UK sat awaiting its run of important economic data which is set to be released this week. The first, which will come later today, is the November GDP figure. The consensus is expecting a second consecutive 0% change for November, which would see the UK economy across the halfway line of Q4 without making any growth at all. Furthermore, Wednesday and Friday will see the UK’s inflation and retail sales data released. These figures will be important for the strength of the GBP as Boris Johnson moves forward with his Brexit negotiations.

For more pound and AUD news, keep up to date with our daily blogs. Alternatively, if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Pound to Australian Dollar Weakens, as Australian Data Beats Forecasts

The pound to Australian dollar interbank exchange rate stands at 1.8998 today at the time writing. By comparison, back on Wednesday 8th January, sterling was as high as 1.9151 versus the so-called Aussie dollar, so it’s since weakened by 0.81%.

The AUD has gained against the GBP in the last two days, in part because Australia’s economic data this week has exceeded forecasts.

For example, today we’ve learnt that Australia’s retail sales rose by 0.9% in November, well above forecasts for a 0.4% gain, boosted by Black Friday. In addition, this Wednesday 8th it was revealed that Australia’s building permits increased by 11.2% in November, easily exceeding forecasts for a 2% increase.

So this suggests that, in spite of the bush fires continuing to ravage millions of acres of Australia’s territory, the economy continues to expand. This has helped lifted the Australian dollar.

Australian Dollar Climbs, as RBA Less Likely to Cut Interest Rates in February

These upbeat economic releases Down Under have strengthened the Australian dollar, in particular because they make it less likely that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates in the foreseeable future.

Until recently, it was thought that Australia’s central bank could cut borrowing costs below their current 0.75% to a new all-time low, perhaps as soon as their next meeting, on February 4th.

After all, lower interest rates cut the cost of taking out a loan in Australia, thereby benefiting the economy, and compensating somewhat for the ongoing natural disaster. So this hope has boosted the value of the AUD too.

GBP May Be Affected by UK Green Shoots, Conciliatory Trade Talks

However, looking forward, sterling’s value versus the Aussie dollar could be affected, first by signs of green shoots in the UK economy. This week we learnt that UK business confidence has improved following the Conservatives’ election victory last month, which could increase Britain’s economic growth in 2020.

Also, new European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has signalled a conciliatory approach to the UK/EU trade talks, thereby potentially lifting UK business confidence too. In particular, President der Leyen said that “We will have to prioritise” to accommodate Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s legislation, to finalise the trade talks by December 31st 2020.

For more information on AUD exchange rates for an upcoming currency transfer, you cam email me, Matt Vassallo, directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP to AUD weakens, as US/Iran Military Conflict Cools

The sterling vs Australian dollar interbank exchange rate has weakened by almost one cent in the last day, or by 0.49%, from a peak of 1.9154 yesterday to 1.9061 today at the time of writing.

The pound has weakened against the so-called Aussie dollar, partly because the United States’ and Iran’s military skirmish appears to have cooled down.

Last Friday 3rd January, America announced that it had killed Irani General Qasem Soleimani, and yesterday Iran responded by striking two US military bases in Iraq.

However, following these attacks, US President Donald Trump has tweeted that Iran “appears” to be standing down, adding that “All is well!” In particular, this is because no American personnel died in yesterday’s Irani strike.

De-Escalation of US/Iran Conflict Benefits Aussie, as a Commodity Currency

This has strengthened the Australian dollar, in part because the AUD is what’s called a “risk currency”. This means that, when the global geopolitical situation is tense, the Aussie dollar tends to weaken, and when tensions cool, the Australian dollar rises again.

This is because Australia exports vast quantities of commodities, such as iron ore and coal. So Australia’s economy is sensitive to worldwide military events, and its currency too. As a result, yesterday’s seeming truce between the USA and Iran has lifted the AUD.

AUD might be influenced, as bush fires continue Down Under

However, looking ahead, bush fires continue to ravage millions of acres of Australian land, destroying thousands of homes and killing dozens of people so far.

It’s thought that this may weaken Australia’s economy, as the country attempts to control the blazes, and households and businesses respond by spending less.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looks likely to cut interest rates in February, below their current 0.75%, to try and support Australia’s economy during this natural disaster. This may affect the value of the AUD, looking forward.

Turning to the UK, sterling is being supported by hopes for a compromise approach to Great Britain’s and Europe’s future trade deal negotiations.

In addition, this morning Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech, in which he may discuss the outlook for UK interest rates and monetary policy. The speech could be worth watching, for its effect on the GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars please contact me, James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Hits 3-Week High as RBA Forecast to Cut

The pound to Australian dollar interbank exchange rate stands at 1.9153 today at the time of writing. This is its highest in three weeks, or since December 18th.

By comparison, back on December 23rd, sterling was as low as 1.8669 versus the so-called Aussie dollar. So it’s since strengthened by 2.59%, or by almost five cents.

A partial explanation why the GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate has reached this three-week high today is because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being increasingly tipped to cut interest rates, below their current 0.75%.

This is because bush fires continue to sweep Australia, destroying millions of acres and thousands of homes. So to try and support Australia’s economy during this natural disaster, the RBA may cut borrowing costs, to reduce the cost of a loan for Australian businesses and households.

The RBA makes its next interest rate decision on February 4th 2020, and an interest rate cut would traditionally weaken the Australian dollar.

Johnson and Von Der Leyen to Begin UK/EU Trade Talks


Turning to today, sterling might be affected, because UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson will meet new European Commission (EC) President Ursula Von Der Leyen in Downing Street, to begin the UK/EU future trade talks.

It’s thought that the two leaders’ conversation today will set the pace and tone of the negotiations to come over the next few months.

PM Johnson has set a deadline of the end of this year to finalise the trade talks, while President Der Leyen thinks that they may have to be extended, especially as such trade talks normally take years to finalise.

In particular, if the discussions today goes smoothly, or otherwise, this could affect the value of sterling.

Australia’s Building Permits Rise, Trade Balance Due, Could Influence AUD


Turning to the economic calendar, yesterday we learnt that Australia’s building permits surprisingly rose by 11.2% in November, well above forecasts for 2%, which could impact the Australian dollar’s value.

Tomorrow, we’ll learn Australia’s trade balance statistics for November, forecast at AU$5,915 million, while on Friday, Australia’s retail sales data for November goes public too, predicted at 0.4%. These releases could be worth watching, for their effect on the GBP to AUD interbank exchange rate.

If you are in the process of buying or selling Australian dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly, Tom Holian, I look forward to hearing from you.teh@currencies.co.uk