Category Archives: Australian Dollar Forecast

Will the Australian dollar rise or fall against the pound?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has improved lately as the pound finds some better form and the Australian softens every so slightly. In the most recent communications from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), we learned that the RBA are concerned over rising house prices. We also learned that the RBA view the currency as too strong and whilst only a few weeks ago the view was that the RBA might raise interest rates later this year, for now, the direction appears to me to be fairly neutral. If you are making a GBPAUD exchange in the coming weeks I believe a big factor will be the Article 50 direction for sterling. With plenty of volatility expected nothing should be too readily assumed!

GBPAUD hit 1.59 last week as the lack of interest rate hikes in the United States presented a weaker US dollar. As the US dollar was sold off it benefitted the Australian currency as the Aussie is used by investors to benefit from its higher interest rates. By ‘parking’ funds in Australian dollars, investors have a higher rate of interest and therefore earn more on their money. Such trends help the Australian to strengthen and this partly explains some of the overall strength of the Australian dollar against the pound.

I would expect GBPAUD rates could move as much as 11 cents between the high and the low as markets digest the release of Article 50. I forecast rates between 1.56 and 1.67 depending on how the market receives the news. Because this has never happened before the scope and potential for swings are high.

If you have a transfer involving buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital. If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any transfers you may contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have worked for almost ten years assisting clients buying and selling Australian dollars for pounds and am positive I can offer some useful assistance with a really good exchange rate (above other companies) and some useful information to make an informed decision on when to buy your currency.

Will the Pound fall when the Brexit begins next Wednesday? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound’s value was relatively unchanged in the wake of the UK government announcing the date for the start of the Brexit.

Towards the end of last week it emerged that the 29th of March will be the day Brexit is officially triggered, as UK Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke Article 50 in what Brexit secretary, David Davis has called ‘the most important negotiation for this country in a generation’.

I think the reason the Pounds value remained mostly unchanged is because the financial markets were expecting the announcement, after May made us aware of the governments plans and timescales towards the end of last year.

Personally, I think the Brexit is mostly priced into the Pounds value and I’m actually quite optimistic regarding the Pounds value moving forward. I think the major drops in the wake of the vote have seen the Pound consolidate at its new levels and it appears to see support at the 1.60 level against the Aussie Dollar.

The rising inflation in the UK is also likely to result in an interest rate hike which would likely boost the Pounds value, and there are concerns in Australia that the housing market is overheating, particularly in cities such as Melbourne and Sydney which could impact AUD’s value.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

8 days to go before Article 50 is triggered and Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has had a bit of a surprise movement during today after the UK posted much better than expected inflation figures.

The Pound has increased by 2 cents against the Australian Dollar as the UK confirmed rising inflation to 2.3% from the expectation of 2.3%. This has helped the Pound as it reinforced the Bank of England’s recent announcement that one of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for an interest rate hike.

In my opinion we are a very very long way from any chance of the UK raising interest rates but if inflation continues to rise this could cause a problem for the UK.

Guy Debelle who is the Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to hold a press conference tomorrow and any suggestion as to what the RBA’s thoughts are with interest rates going forward could cause movement overnight against Sterling.

However, with 8 days to go before Article 50 is triggered it is important to make sure that you are in a position to move very quickly when it comes to converting Australian Dollars.

My feeling is that we could see problems facing Sterling next week as if we look back to what happened when the Brexit occurred last year the Pound fell dramatically.

Therefore, as the precedent has been set my prediction is for a huge amount of volatility coming in the next week.

If you’re worried about what may happen to GBPAUD exchange rates in the near future but do not have the full availability of funds it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/AUD exchange rate hovering at pivotal point of 1.60 – Where will rates head next? (Daniel Wright)

GBP/AUD exchange rates have been loitering around the 1.60 mark for a number of days now and it appears that neither currency has the power to push through the current levels of resistance and make a break either way.

With Brexit and the triggering of article 50 clearly hanging over the head of the Pound the Australian Dollar has been on a very good run of form, seeing a huge boost last Wednesday when the Federal Reserve over in the U.S hiked interest rates but only gave the nod to a further two interest rate hikes this year as opposed to the expectation of seeing a further three.

Interest rate hikes in the U.S are generally seen as negative for the Australian Dollar as it makes the USD more attractive to investors. With the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar a well known pairing that is used in carry trading, should either have news that makes it more attractive the other can suffer and you tend to see a large flow of money from one to the other very rapidly.

For those who are not aware, carry trading is a process where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate (e.g USD) and shifts it to one with a much larger one (e.g AUD), making a difference on the two. When Australian economic data is poor or the U.S has some good news, you tend to see what is known as the ‘unwinding’ of carry trades, leading to the Australian Dollar weakening and the U.S Dollar gaining strength due to supply and demand.

Personally, I feel that the 1.60 rate will not be hanging around much longer and I would not be surprised to see a rise for the Pound, although be wary of Sterling getting the jitters in the next week or so as we close in on article 50 being triggered on 29th March, this is the official start of the process of the U.K leaving the EU.

For anyone with a large currency exchange to make, either involving buying or selling Australian Dollars it is imperative that you have a proactive and knowledgeable currency broker on your side throughout these turbulent times.

If you would like my assistance then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and I will be more than happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in simple terms. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Will GBPAUD have a sustained period in the 1.50s? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week for a period GBPAUD exchange broke the 1.60 barrier and fell into the 1.59s. The reason for the fall was an event not from Australia or the UK and actually from the US. The Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates Wednesday evening however Chairlady Janet Yellen gave a dovish speech shortly after which led to a surprisingly sell off of dollars and commodity currencies including the Australian dollar benefited.

However the gains for the Australian dollar vs sterling were short lived. Kristin Forbes surprised the currency market Thursday afternoon by voting in favour of raising interest rates.The fight back for the pound began and GBPAUD increased 2 cents.

In other news for the UK the Queen gave Theresa May Royal approval to trigger Article 50 and begin the negotiations of leaving the European Union. With Theresa May set to trigger Article 50 this week or next I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates fall into the 1.50s for a sustained period in the weeks to come. Therefore if you need to purchase Australian dollars short term trading sooner rather than later may be the best option. However the UK are set to release their latest inflation numbers Tuesday morning and the consensus is for the numbers to meet the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This could provide another spike in the market that Australian dollar buyers are looking for.

The major economic data release to look out for this week for the Australian dollar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes. The minutes are released two weeks after the actual interest rate decision and gives good indication to future Monetary Policy decisions. For more information on the release once we know more feel free to email me directly on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emmigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

The impact of Brexit on the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

We are now just less than 2 weeks away before Article 50 is due to be triggered in the UK and the currency markets are waiting hesitantly before deciding which way they are likely to move.

GBPAUD exchange rates have been trading either side of 1.60 on the Interbank level this week and although the Pound has seen some small gains the increase has been rather limited to say the least.

The House of Lords challenge has now been overcome as well as the UK government now officially having been granted Royal Assent which now means we are waiting for it to happen any day now.

Brexit secretary David Davis has confirmed it will happen by the end of the month but as yet no formal date has yet been announced which makes me personally a little suspicious.

It could be argued if the UK was ready to start the negotiations then the trigger would have already taken place so to me it appears as if the UK government is stalling while it still makes its mind up as to what happens when the negotiations officially begin.

The impact this could have on Sterling could in my opinion be rather dramatic to say the least. If you remember what happened to the Pound last June once the Brexit vote was confirmed we saw losses of over 20 cents on GBPAUD exchange rates in a very short period of time.

This highlights the importance of being able to move quickly when converting Australian Dollars so it is crucial to make sure that you’re ready to make a quick purchase if things go the wrong way.

With unemployment in Australia coming out worse than expected at the end of the week this would have typically weakened the Australian Dollar vs the Pound but in this case it did little to move the markets.

Therefore, this is why I expect to see huge volatility towards the end of this month for GBPAUD exchange rates in the run up to Article 50.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information about what is happening or would simply like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. A quick email could save you a lot of money compared to using your own bank.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The pound spiked impressively against the Australian dollar yesterday as the Bank of England indicated the possibility of higher interest rates to help maintain Inflation. The Australian dollar was actually weaker too on the back of Unemployment data which reflected a much weaker Unemployment picture than previously thought. If you are looking to make a transfer in the coming months and weeks than understanding just where the Australian economy and the UK’s Brexit negotiations are headed is key.

The Australian economy has been buoyed by rising commodity prices and continued solid Chinese economic growth and investment. The higher interest rates in Australia also offer investors are solid platform to invest in presenting much greater returns than the in some case negative offerings from elsewhere. Whilst the United States raising their interest rate this week did help the Australian dollar a little more, the Aussie lost ground to rise back above 1.60 on GBPAUD.

I personally think the rate will struggle to maintain itself above 1.60 as the pending UK Brexit negotiations and fears are likely to unsettle the pound. Most commentators believe the triggering of the Article 50 clause will see the pound weaken but I believe we might see some small improvements in the value of sterling here, although ultimately they will prove shortlived.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars we are a very important time. With rates hovering around 1.60 the prospect of events getting even worse for Australian dollar buyers is highly likely. Clients buying Australian dollars hoping that this is a ‘bottom’ in the recent trends could be in for a nasty shock if we hit 1.55 or worse in the coming weeks.

Many clients said it was painful to buy at 1.80 and even 1.90 last year failing to believe us when we said it would get worse. Some clients also failed to believe us when we had rates above 1.70 and we predicted it would get worse. The global conditions that contributed to the GBPAUD rates sliding to some of the lower levels in the last few years remain and I think Australian dollar buyers need to be very careful about having expectations that are too high.

To discuss the currency markets and all of your options with a currency specialist with almost ten years experience handling the personal and business requirements of thousands of clients in Australia and the UK, pease contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 in UK business hours. 

GBP AUD Makes Solid Gains after Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

The pound has rocketed against the Australian dollar this afternoon after the latest Bank of England meeting this afternoon. GBP AUD has now broken through 1.61 having fallen to a low of 1.59 earlier today. The Bank of England held rates steady today as widely expected but there was a new development. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise interest rates creating an 8-1 split at the central Bank and this resulted in an instant market reaction with the pound rallying.

The mood at the moment in the UK is starting to look more upbeat with Brexit in my opinion. There is a course the government is steering towards and some of the recent comments from the Eurozone have been quite constructive in terms of the negotiation. For those clients selling Australian dollars for pounds this is important as there are currently some excellent trading levels available although we could well be at a turning point now. For assistance on the timing of a currency exchange this is something we can help you with.

Although the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the US last night to 1% which resulted in some Aussie dollar strength, it proved very short lived after the Bank of England news today. Data in Australia has proved very resilient with a buoyant housing market and recovery in commodity prices. The Australian economy is performing well at present and it seems unlikely the Reserve Bank of Australia will want to dampen the recovery with an interest rate hike when the general mood is more towards making a cut. As such the Aussie dollar is unlikely to benefit from any monetary policy intervention.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Rates Fall Below 1.60! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have fallen below 1.60, with the AUD gaining support ahead of the UK’s Brexit.

The AUD gained momentum during Wednesday’s trading session, pushing rates under the 1.60 resistance level. This has provided those clients holding AUD with another fantastic opportunity to sell their positions, as uncertainty surrounding the UK economy continues to help support the AUD’s value.

The move under 1.60 was also supported by the US FED’s decision to raise interest rates in the US, a result widely anticipated by investors.

It was somewhat surprising to see the AUD strengthen as a result of this, as typically you see it weaken as the AUD is considered a riskier currency. However, last night’s move proves that the current sentiment regarding the Australian economy is positive and the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy is still very much a negative in the eyes of investors.

The Australian economy has released a run of positive economic data and last night’s official Unemployment figure showed a fall from 5.9% to 5.7%. This is another reason the AUD has managed to break through 1.60 but despite the current positive trend I am still wary about assuming the current spike will continue at the same pace.

The UK is fighting an uphill Brexit battle and has done for many months but with Article 50 on the verge of being triggered and layers of uncertainty regarding future policies slowly being removed, the Pound may start to gain a foothold sooner rather than later.

We also need to remind ourselves that the current market remains unpredictable at best and with global investor confidence fragile, commodity based currencies such as the AUD are also at risk. They are reliant on global growth, in Australia’s case particularly the export of its raw materials to China. Therefore, any slowdown in this sector will always hit their economy hard and the AUD will inevitably suffer as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

A volatile evening for Australian dollar exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

For Australian dollar buyer and sellers this evening should be a volatile night for exchange rates for a few reasons. Firstly the Federal Reserve in the US are set to release their latest interest rate decision and many economists believe a rate hike is on the cards. If this occurs, I expect speculators to leave the Australian dollar and purchase US dollars in order to profit take. However if the FED decide to hold off expect the opposite and the Australian dollar could actually strengthen.

Later in the evening Australia are set to release a host of data including Unemployment rate, Employment change, RBA bulletin, Participation rate and Consumer inflation expectations. The two key releases are the Unemployment numbers and Employment change. With Unemployment expected to remain steady at 5.7% and Employment change numbers suggesting a slight rise, this could lead to the Australian dollar gaining strength. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see Australian dollar exchange rates up and down like a yo-yo this evening.

As for GBPAUD exchange rates, I believe its only a matter of time until GBPAUD breaks through 1.60, therefore if a spike occurs this evening for Australian dollar buyers I would recommend seriously considering taking advantage. The reason why I believe rates will fall into the 1.50 is due to UK Prime Minster Theresa May’s announcement that she will trigger Article50 at some point this month.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.