Category Archives: Australian Dollar Strength

Will the Australian dollar rise or fall against the pound?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has improved lately as the pound finds some better form and the Australian softens every so slightly. In the most recent communications from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), we learned that the RBA are concerned over rising house prices. We also learned that the RBA view the currency as too strong and whilst only a few weeks ago the view was that the RBA might raise interest rates later this year, for now, the direction appears to me to be fairly neutral. If you are making a GBPAUD exchange in the coming weeks I believe a big factor will be the Article 50 direction for sterling. With plenty of volatility expected nothing should be too readily assumed!

GBPAUD hit 1.59 last week as the lack of interest rate hikes in the United States presented a weaker US dollar. As the US dollar was sold off it benefitted the Australian currency as the Aussie is used by investors to benefit from its higher interest rates. By ‘parking’ funds in Australian dollars, investors have a higher rate of interest and therefore earn more on their money. Such trends help the Australian to strengthen and this partly explains some of the overall strength of the Australian dollar against the pound.

I would expect GBPAUD rates could move as much as 11 cents between the high and the low as markets digest the release of Article 50. I forecast rates between 1.56 and 1.67 depending on how the market receives the news. Because this has never happened before the scope and potential for swings are high.

If you have a transfer involving buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital. If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any transfers you may contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have worked for almost ten years assisting clients buying and selling Australian dollars for pounds and am positive I can offer some useful assistance with a really good exchange rate (above other companies) and some useful information to make an informed decision on when to buy your currency.

Will the Pound fall when the Brexit begins next Wednesday? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound’s value was relatively unchanged in the wake of the UK government announcing the date for the start of the Brexit.

Towards the end of last week it emerged that the 29th of March will be the day Brexit is officially triggered, as UK Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke Article 50 in what Brexit secretary, David Davis has called ‘the most important negotiation for this country in a generation’.

I think the reason the Pounds value remained mostly unchanged is because the financial markets were expecting the announcement, after May made us aware of the governments plans and timescales towards the end of last year.

Personally, I think the Brexit is mostly priced into the Pounds value and I’m actually quite optimistic regarding the Pounds value moving forward. I think the major drops in the wake of the vote have seen the Pound consolidate at its new levels and it appears to see support at the 1.60 level against the Aussie Dollar.

The rising inflation in the UK is also likely to result in an interest rate hike which would likely boost the Pounds value, and there are concerns in Australia that the housing market is overheating, particularly in cities such as Melbourne and Sydney which could impact AUD’s value.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will GBPAUD have a sustained period in the 1.50s? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week for a period GBPAUD exchange broke the 1.60 barrier and fell into the 1.59s. The reason for the fall was an event not from Australia or the UK and actually from the US. The Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates Wednesday evening however Chairlady Janet Yellen gave a dovish speech shortly after which led to a surprisingly sell off of dollars and commodity currencies including the Australian dollar benefited.

However the gains for the Australian dollar vs sterling were short lived. Kristin Forbes surprised the currency market Thursday afternoon by voting in favour of raising interest rates.The fight back for the pound began and GBPAUD increased 2 cents.

In other news for the UK the Queen gave Theresa May Royal approval to trigger Article 50 and begin the negotiations of leaving the European Union. With Theresa May set to trigger Article 50 this week or next I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates fall into the 1.50s for a sustained period in the weeks to come. Therefore if you need to purchase Australian dollars short term trading sooner rather than later may be the best option. However the UK are set to release their latest inflation numbers Tuesday morning and the consensus is for the numbers to meet the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This could provide another spike in the market that Australian dollar buyers are looking for.

The major economic data release to look out for this week for the Australian dollar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes. The minutes are released two weeks after the actual interest rate decision and gives good indication to future Monetary Policy decisions. For more information on the release once we know more feel free to email me directly on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emmigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

The impact of Brexit on the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

We are now just less than 2 weeks away before Article 50 is due to be triggered in the UK and the currency markets are waiting hesitantly before deciding which way they are likely to move.

GBPAUD exchange rates have been trading either side of 1.60 on the Interbank level this week and although the Pound has seen some small gains the increase has been rather limited to say the least.

The House of Lords challenge has now been overcome as well as the UK government now officially having been granted Royal Assent which now means we are waiting for it to happen any day now.

Brexit secretary David Davis has confirmed it will happen by the end of the month but as yet no formal date has yet been announced which makes me personally a little suspicious.

It could be argued if the UK was ready to start the negotiations then the trigger would have already taken place so to me it appears as if the UK government is stalling while it still makes its mind up as to what happens when the negotiations officially begin.

The impact this could have on Sterling could in my opinion be rather dramatic to say the least. If you remember what happened to the Pound last June once the Brexit vote was confirmed we saw losses of over 20 cents on GBPAUD exchange rates in a very short period of time.

This highlights the importance of being able to move quickly when converting Australian Dollars so it is crucial to make sure that you’re ready to make a quick purchase if things go the wrong way.

With unemployment in Australia coming out worse than expected at the end of the week this would have typically weakened the Australian Dollar vs the Pound but in this case it did little to move the markets.

Therefore, this is why I expect to see huge volatility towards the end of this month for GBPAUD exchange rates in the run up to Article 50.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information about what is happening or would simply like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. A quick email could save you a lot of money compared to using your own bank.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The pound spiked impressively against the Australian dollar yesterday as the Bank of England indicated the possibility of higher interest rates to help maintain Inflation. The Australian dollar was actually weaker too on the back of Unemployment data which reflected a much weaker Unemployment picture than previously thought. If you are looking to make a transfer in the coming months and weeks than understanding just where the Australian economy and the UK’s Brexit negotiations are headed is key.

The Australian economy has been buoyed by rising commodity prices and continued solid Chinese economic growth and investment. The higher interest rates in Australia also offer investors are solid platform to invest in presenting much greater returns than the in some case negative offerings from elsewhere. Whilst the United States raising their interest rate this week did help the Australian dollar a little more, the Aussie lost ground to rise back above 1.60 on GBPAUD.

I personally think the rate will struggle to maintain itself above 1.60 as the pending UK Brexit negotiations and fears are likely to unsettle the pound. Most commentators believe the triggering of the Article 50 clause will see the pound weaken but I believe we might see some small improvements in the value of sterling here, although ultimately they will prove shortlived.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars we are a very important time. With rates hovering around 1.60 the prospect of events getting even worse for Australian dollar buyers is highly likely. Clients buying Australian dollars hoping that this is a ‘bottom’ in the recent trends could be in for a nasty shock if we hit 1.55 or worse in the coming weeks.

Many clients said it was painful to buy at 1.80 and even 1.90 last year failing to believe us when we said it would get worse. Some clients also failed to believe us when we had rates above 1.70 and we predicted it would get worse. The global conditions that contributed to the GBPAUD rates sliding to some of the lower levels in the last few years remain and I think Australian dollar buyers need to be very careful about having expectations that are too high.

To discuss the currency markets and all of your options with a currency specialist with almost ten years experience handling the personal and business requirements of thousands of clients in Australia and the UK, pease contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 in UK business hours. 

GBP/AUD Rates Fall Below 1.60! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have fallen below 1.60, with the AUD gaining support ahead of the UK’s Brexit.

The AUD gained momentum during Wednesday’s trading session, pushing rates under the 1.60 resistance level. This has provided those clients holding AUD with another fantastic opportunity to sell their positions, as uncertainty surrounding the UK economy continues to help support the AUD’s value.

The move under 1.60 was also supported by the US FED’s decision to raise interest rates in the US, a result widely anticipated by investors.

It was somewhat surprising to see the AUD strengthen as a result of this, as typically you see it weaken as the AUD is considered a riskier currency. However, last night’s move proves that the current sentiment regarding the Australian economy is positive and the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy is still very much a negative in the eyes of investors.

The Australian economy has released a run of positive economic data and last night’s official Unemployment figure showed a fall from 5.9% to 5.7%. This is another reason the AUD has managed to break through 1.60 but despite the current positive trend I am still wary about assuming the current spike will continue at the same pace.

The UK is fighting an uphill Brexit battle and has done for many months but with Article 50 on the verge of being triggered and layers of uncertainty regarding future policies slowly being removed, the Pound may start to gain a foothold sooner rather than later.

We also need to remind ourselves that the current market remains unpredictable at best and with global investor confidence fragile, commodity based currencies such as the AUD are also at risk. They are reliant on global growth, in Australia’s case particularly the export of its raw materials to China. Therefore, any slowdown in this sector will always hit their economy hard and the AUD will inevitably suffer as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

A volatile evening for Australian dollar exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

For Australian dollar buyer and sellers this evening should be a volatile night for exchange rates for a few reasons. Firstly the Federal Reserve in the US are set to release their latest interest rate decision and many economists believe a rate hike is on the cards. If this occurs, I expect speculators to leave the Australian dollar and purchase US dollars in order to profit take. However if the FED decide to hold off expect the opposite and the Australian dollar could actually strengthen.

Later in the evening Australia are set to release a host of data including Unemployment rate, Employment change, RBA bulletin, Participation rate and Consumer inflation expectations. The two key releases are the Unemployment numbers and Employment change. With Unemployment expected to remain steady at 5.7% and Employment change numbers suggesting a slight rise, this could lead to the Australian dollar gaining strength. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see Australian dollar exchange rates up and down like a yo-yo this evening.

As for GBPAUD exchange rates, I believe its only a matter of time until GBPAUD breaks through 1.60, therefore if a spike occurs this evening for Australian dollar buyers I would recommend seriously considering taking advantage. The reason why I believe rates will fall into the 1.50 is due to UK Prime Minster Theresa May’s announcement that she will trigger Article50 at some point this month.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

A quick look at a GBP/AUD chart over the past 6 months will make it clear that the 1.60 level has acted as a key psychological level for some time now.

Since November of last year the GBP/AUD pair have bounced off of 1.60 around 4 times, and even in October of last year when the Pound came under huge pressure the rate only dipped into the 1.59’s for a short while before recovering back to levels above the key 1.60 mark.

Personally I think that a number of factors could reverse the direction of GBP/AUD, and I think 1.60 could remain a support level for the Pound with the pair likely to approach 1.70 once the Brexit is underway.

At present I think the markets are awaiting the certainty the invocation of Article 50 will give financial markets, which will in turn boost Sterling’s value. I’m also expecting to see the strongly performing Aussie Dollar lose some value should the US Fed Reserve Bank begin hiking interest rates as is planned in the US, as a higher yielding Dollar will likely limit demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar.

Aussie Dollar sellers are in the fortunate position of being able to convert their currency into Pounds at around 3 year highs. Those planning on selling AUD for GBP are able to improve on their outcome even further as our currency brokerage offers exchange rates that improve on those offered by the high street banks, therefore our clients receive more Pounds for the Aussie Dollars through us.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

When will the UK trigger Article 50 and the impact for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Overnight the news has broken that Parliament has approved the Brexit bill which now means that the UK government can officially trigger Article 50 and the UK can open negotiations to leave the European Union.

At some point today Royal Assent is also likely to be granted but he trigger is not expected to happen until later on this month.

The problem by triggering it at this moment is that the Dutch elections take place tomorrow and the Scottish National Party are due to hold a conference and the main point made by Nicola Sturgeon will be calling for a second Scottish referendum.

The problem of Scotland having another referendum is that we saw huge losses for Sterling against all major currencies in the run up to the vote and so I anticipate that we’ll see further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar and I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD rates fall below 1.60 on the Interbank level during the course of this week.

Scotland did not want to leave the European Union and will be active over the next few months trying to put obstacles in the way of the Brexit talks.

Sterling has fallen against all major currencies including against the Australian Dollar and it appears as though Article 50 will not take place until towards the end of this month as suggested by Brexit secretary David Davis.

In terms of economic data Chinese Industrial Production came out better than expected which has also given the Australian Dollar a boost vs the Pound.

Tomorrow the US Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision and the likelihood is that the US will hike rates and as this is almost guaranteed to happen it may not have the usual effect on the Australian Dollar which will often weaken the Aussie Dollar.

Currency markets tends to price in news so this time around I don’t expect any real negative movement for the Australian Dollar.

My prediction for the rest of the week is further strength for the Australian Dollar vs the Pound.

If you have a currency requirement to either buy or sell Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

US Interest Rate Hike could weaken the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Could there be an Investor Exodus from the Australian Dollar?

The Australian Dollar has strengthened significantly against the pound of late. There has been positive figures from Australia coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Data has been so good in fact, Australia has recently overtaken Holland for having the longest successive period of growth without recession. Wednesday could however be an opportunity for Sterling sellers.

Wednesday will see the Federal Reserve US interest rate decision. It has been widely publicised there is the strong possibility of a rate hike. Odds of a hike currently sit at 80%. If the hike occurs, the Australian Dollar will certainly lose appeal to the investor. With higher levels of safety and now higher returns than previously, the US dollar could well be the destination of choice. We could see significant Australian Dollar weakness following the rate decision.

Brexit Update

The House of Lords have put forward two amendments to the exit bill. They wish to have a vote by MP’s on the final bill and they would like the rights of current EU citizens residing in the UK protected.  The bill has to be approved by the House of Commons, however if the amendments are rejected, there is the possibility that article 50 could be triggered as early as midnight this evening. This would definitely be a shock to the markets and you could expect high volatility on the exchange.

Trading GBP/AUD?  – Be sure to be in touch with a Broker if you want the most for your money

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to have an experienced broker on board to assist with your trade. It will be extremely difficult to maximise your return during such volatile times. I can provide an individual trading strategy, picking the correct contract to suit your needs. I am also prepared to perform a comparison against your current provider and I very confident I will be able to show you a significant saving. Let me know the currency you are trading, the size of your trade and timescale and I will endeavour to get back to you as quickly as possible. You can trade in the knowledge that you will working with a brokerage in the business for over 16yrs and one that is FCA registered. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you and thank you for reading.