Category Archives: Australian Dollar Strength

Bank of England to influence GBPAUD exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

Today the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision and this event has the potential to have an impact on GBPAUD exchange rates. At the beginning of the year the Bank of England were hinting that an interest rate hike was imminent and due to a poor run of UK economic data interest rates were kept on hold and the pound lost value against the Australian dollar.

Today looks like we will receive similar commentary as the latest Q2 growth figures were a mixed bag, wage growth construction output and industrial production all missed the consensus. Arguable the only recent economic data release that exceeded expectation were the retail sales numbers.

My personal opinion is that the vote will be split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold, which will be a slight non event. However Governor Mark Carney will talk down the chances of a rate hike in the foreseeable future due to the recent flurry of economic data, Brexit negotiations and trade wars. Arguably there is a good chance that buying Australian dollars with pounds could come more expensive throughout the day.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. If I haven’t covered your currency pair please outline the pair you are converting. 

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

RBA dovish on Monetary Policy Outlook (Daniel Johnson)

RBA Rate Hike appears to be less likely

The Pound has suffered against the majority of major currencies of late. GBP/AUD fell from 1.84 to 1.75 and there has been little reason for optimism fro Aussie buyers. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit along with a host of poor data is holding back the pound considerably.

We did see GBP/AUD rise to as high as 1.79 during yesterday’s trading, but don’t be quick to think there will be further gains. This is more due to Australian Dollar weakness than any Sterling strength.

We have witnessed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deliver a rather negative speech. It was what was not said that casued a stir. The following line was removed from the minutes:

“Members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down”.

I have stated previously I would be surprised to see a rate hike from the RBA and this certainly seems to reaffirm my thoughts.

The pound remains fragile due to Brexit, but the ongoing trade war between the US and China is a concern for the Australian economy due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials. The US Dollar is also a far more attractive option for investors with the high levels of interest.

I am still of the opinion GBP/AUD will remain between 1.75-1.80 short term. Aim for the 1.79s if you are an Australian Dollar buyer and you have to move shortly.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. It is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

Trade Wars weigh on the Australian dollar!

The Australian dollar exchange rate is looking more and more attractive for buyers as uncertainty over the global trade outlook weighs on the currency. Expectations for the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) remain centered around their belief for future interest rate hikes which might well see the Aussie weaken even further in the future.

Trade Wars have weighed on the Australian dollar over the weekend which has seen the currency weaker as investors try to make sense of what the global economic outlook holds in store for the Chinese economy. With the Chinese economy at risk of warring with the US over trade tariffs, the potential for a decline in Chinese economic activity is high. With China being the main trading partner of Australia, the highs and lows of Chinese economic activity do have a direct influence on the price of the Australian dollar.

Overall, the longer term behaviour of the Australian dollar could be directly linked to the outcome from these Trade Wars, many had believed it could all be solvable and it might well pan out this way. However, it is no secret of Trump’s plans to change the terms of trade with China, unless China are making some progress with this, it is unlikely the Aussie will be rising anytime soon.

Trade Wars are not the sole focus and depending on the currency pair you are considering, there are many other elements which could drive the market. For GBPAUD the Bank of England meeting on Thursday could be a driver we need to aware of, clients with any GBPAUD transfers buying or selling Australian dollars, would do well to get in touch before the event to bring themselves fully up to date with the rates and the market.

Thank you for reading and I hope you find our information useful. For more information at no obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar weakness presents opportunity!

The Australian dollar has weakened against most other currencies presenting an improved opportunity to buy the currency. The main reason for this has been the shifts on the sentiment relating to the US and China, the Trade Wars. Another factor is the US raising interest rates which has seen the Aussie losing ground against its counterparts as investors seek higher returning and more reliable shores elsewhere.

The GBPAUD rate has risen to some of the better levels of the week as has USDAUD, the outlook on both pairs could easily support better opportunities to buy the Aussie. Investors will wish to seek out the very best levels they can for buying currency and we can help monitor the market for spikes and improvements as they happen.

Typically, the Australian dollar will lose value when there is uncertainty over what is happening globally and with Australia heavily reliant on trade with China to drive its economy, any signs that there is weakness or problems with China will see the Aussie weaker. Trump’s introduction of $50bn worth of tariffs this week will only serve to amplify this trend and this explains why GBPAUD reached near 1.78 this week.

The longer term forecast for the Australian dollar is strength as the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) seeks a higher interest rate itself. However with the Bank of England and certainly, the United States already raising and well ahead of the RBA, the outlook for the Aussie could be more weakness in the shorter term.

If you have a transaction buying or selling Australian dollars, getting as much information as possible on the rates is key to maximising your position. We are here to help with the planning and execution of any transactions at the very best rates of exchange so to learn more, please contact myself Jonathan Watson to learn more.

Thank you for reading and please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

 

Australian Dollar Outlook Improves (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar could be set for a stronger period ahead following a series of better economic data helping support the Aussie. Unemployment data released this week arrived better than expected at 5.4% against consensus of 5.5% proving beneficial for the dollar. There is hope that the improvement in the labour market should start to feed through into higher wage growth which is something the Reserve Bank of Australian have been waiting for. The Aussie was also boosted on the back of higher consumer inflation expectations which are pointing to higher prices down under going forward. The data suggests that Australians expect prices for goods and services to climb higher and this is yet another key criteria the RBA are monitoring before any decision is made on potentially raising interest rates. Looking forward the dollar could see a better period ahead and clients looking to sell Australian dollars may see a good window to convert within the next couple of months.

Next week sees the RBA minutes for the meeting earlier this month and may offer clues as to the central banks thinking. Any suggesting the conversation is moving towards raising rates would be seen as good for the Aussie.

The US are widely tipped to impose more trade tariffs on China imminently and this could happen as soon as today. Australia for the moment appear to be relatively protected for this action due to the strong trade ties it has with China.

GBP AUD

There are two major drivers for the GBP AUD pair at present. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars should be aware of the Bank of England meeting next week as any change of tact from Governor Mark Carney could see the pound react. Any suggestion a rate hike could happen in August is likely to see rates for GBP AUD rally. Perhaps more importantly the Brexit withdrawal bill goes back to the House of Lords on Monday after there has been some disagreement in government as to the final wording of the text. This could prove tricky for the Prime Minister and any political tensions here could see the pound come under pressure. My long term view of GBP AUD is for considerable strength so sellers may wish to strike whilst the opportunity is still there.

For more information and guidance on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the right time then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Brexit uncertainty continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling remains fragile due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and poor economic data. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations expect the pound to rally. Unfortunately very little progress is being made. The current point of contention is the Irish border deal. At present Theresa May and David Davis are unable to even agree on a back up deal if a deal on the Irish border cannot be reached. Ideally they would like to have something in place before the EU summit on 28th June. The current situation does not bode well for Sterling.

Recent data releases continue to be poor, manufacturing data this week saw the biggest fall since October 2012 and GDP came in below expectations at 0.2%. Average wage growth also saw a decline, unemployment remained unchanged, but it is important to remember that zero hour contracts are not a stable form of employment.

I am of the opinion there is little justification for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in the coming months and would be surprised to see one this year.

Thing are not all rosy down under however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore. The ongoing trade war with China and US is a concern. If China’s growth drops, so will the demand for Australian goods and services which will hit the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

There are economists with the view there is the possibility of a rate hike from the RBA this year. I am not so confident.

If you are buying Aussies GBP/AUD is currently range bound between 1.75-1.80. Aim for 1.77 + if you have to move short term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

AUD Forecast – Fears Over Brexit Continue to Support the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a quiet start to the week for the AUD, following yesterday’s bank holiday in Australia.

GBP/AUD rates have remained range bound over recent days, with little market movement despite the developments in the Korean peninsula.

Almost every headline this morning relates to the historic meeting between President Donald Trump and Korean leader Kim Jong-Un.

Whilst we are still waiting for the full details of the deal that has been put in place, both Trump and Kim confirmed that they had signed a document that has committed North Korea to complete denuclearisation.

Whilst this deal has no direct impact on the Australian economy, the repercussions are likely to have ripple effects across the global economy.

The AUD has performed well of late, particularly against its GBP counterpart, finding plenty of support around the current levels. Whilst GBP/AUD are trading around 1.76 this morning the pound has not threatened to make any sustained move towards 1.80 over recent weeks.

Sterling continues to be handicapped by concerns over Brexit and with today’s House of Commons debate will be followed closely by investors, a positive resolution in the short-term seems optimistic at best.

This uncertainty is helping to support the AUD around the current levels and with yesterday’s poor UK Manufacturing data a real for cause for concern, I am not anticipating a major shift in Sterling’s favour over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Important news to move Australian dollar exchange rates!

The Australian dollar has been a stronger contender on exchange rates lately as investors back the Australian dollar to potentially improve in the future. This is all owing to the improved expectations we have of late that the Chinese economy will improve further and the global economy is not as badly affected by the Trade Wars.

The Trade Wars and potential future trading activity of the global economy is a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates, if you are looking for improvements for buying or selling the Australian dollar, keeping abreast of the latest developments is key to maximising your overall position. Australian unemployment data next week could be a big driver as attitudes to the economy and the labour market are vital to shifts in the likelihood of the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) to raise interest rates in the future.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then understanding the market and all of your options in advance is highly recommended to help minimise the inherent uncertainty of just where levels could potentially go. On GBPAUD exchange rates we could easily see the rate rise to 1.80 if better UK news and worse information on the Aussie comes into play.

Next week is also crucial as we have the latest US interest rate decision where the market is anticipating further information from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate expectations. This could see the US dollar rise which would weaken the Aussie, their relationship is quite closely linked since both now have similar interest rates but investors might prefer to hold the US dollar as it is seen as a more stable and reliable currency.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key, for more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian Dollar Strength – Economic Outlook Positive

The Australian dollar is in a much better place at present finding considerable support including having made gains in excess of 3% against the pound in the last month. Australian Gross Domestic Product has performed very well climbing to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2018 which has restored some confidence in the Aussie. A small boost in global growth and specifically in the Chinese economy seems to be paying dividends for the Australian dollar and this rally may have further to go. Chinese retails sales data next week could create some market reaction and a strong number could prove beneficial for the Aussie.

As things stand the dollar has not been as adversely affected from the trade tariffs imposed between China and the US. The advantage for Australia is that it shares very close trade ties with China so unless a global trade war escalates that drags Australia in too then this relationship could in fact boost the dollar further. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are seeing a much better opportunity to convert and may wish to consider taking the risk out of the volatile currency markets. Rates for AUD GBP are sitting at 1.7680 and are considerably better than the 1.85 highs seen in recent months.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds should pay very close attention to developments in British politics next week. The Brexit withdrawal bill is finally going to go through the House of Commons and will be voted on. If UK Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to push through her vision of Brexit should Conservative rebels vote against what was in the manifesto then this could spell danger For the Prime Minister and the government. Any vote of no confidence pushed by Labour could see major volatility for sterling exchange rates and major market reaction.

For assistance in making transfer when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

AUD Forecast – RBA Keep Interest rates on Hold at 1.5% but Central Bank Remains Upbeat (Matthew Vassallo)

Anyone with an upcoming AUD currency exchange to execute, will need to keep an eye on a number of key economic data releases this week.

Monday saw the release of the latest Retail Sales figures, which came in at 0.4% and above the markets predicted result. This helped to solidify the AUD’s position against a host of major currencies, including the Pound. If it wasn’t for some better than expected UK Construction data, we may have seen the AUD make further inroads back towards 1.70 against Sterling, but as it stands currently, GBP is finding a fair amount of support around 1.74.

The market data is coming thick and fast this week and yesterday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, would have been of key interest to investors, who were hoping to predict the AUD’s next movements.

As expected the central bank kept interest rates on hold and at record lows of 1.5%. This in itself does not tell the whole story, as this decision was widely anticipated and likely factored into the AUD’s value prior to last night’s release.

It was the RBA’s subsequent monetary policy statement that was always likely to hold he most weight with investors and the RBA, somewhat typically some may say, remained optimistic regarding their current economic outlook.

They expressed confidence in the economies ability to extend its 26-year run without entering a recession, citing stronger exports and government spending as the reasoning behind this.

This positive stance will most likely help to curb any short-term losses for the AUD but has yet to make any major impact during today’s trading.

With much of the medias focus currently on President Trump and the prospective trade tariffs that he is looking to impose, fears over a slowdown in global trade continue to grow.

If this occurs it will most likely put pressure on commodity-based currencies such as the AUD and as such, investors are most likely remaining cautious regarding their approach.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.