Category Archives: Best Rates

Australian unemployment figures due out tomorrow – Trade wars still key

Tomorrow we have the release of Australian unemployment figures and expectations are for the unemployment figures to have dropped off a little from 5% to 5.1% for October. This would be in stark contract to the latest release in New Zealand where the release came out at 3.9% recently, the best unemployment figures seen there since 2008.

Should the figure have risen a little as analysts are expecting then we may see a little weakness for the Australian Dollar in early trading on Wednesday, but in my own opinion I feel that political issues around the world are still the most important factor for the Australian Dollar against most major currencies.

First and foremost we have Donald Trump and his trade wars with China, one moment it looks like Trump is willing to compromise and broker a deal with his Chinese counterpart and then in the next breath he seems to go back into attack mode, aiming to lower tariffs for the U.S and to heap lots of them on China. With China being a major importer of Australian goods and services and a large volume of tourist dollars spent in Australia any move from Trump that is seen as negative for China tends to weaken the Australian Dollar and any positive vibes that come from the talks can give the Australian Dollar strength.

For anyone that has an interest in Sterling against the Australian Dollar, buying or selling then the next 36 hours are key. A Brexit deal appears to be edging ever closer however both sides are ‘cautiously optimistic’ which suggests that although a deal could be initially agreed by chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s latest deadline of tomorrow evening, if that does happen then GBP/AUD should surge through the 1.80 level however should talks fall through then we may be looking at trading closer to 1.76.

If you are in the position that you need to exchange Australian Dollars into or out of any major currency and you would appreciate my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you. Not only could I act as your eyes and ears on the market but we pride ourselves on getting the very top rates of exchange too. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) for a no obligation chat about your current position and I will get in touch with you personally. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask to be put through to Daniel Wright, quoting Australian Dollar Forecast.

Does May have the backing to get her Brexit Plan through in January? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – GBP/AUD again has fallen below the key resistance point 1.80. This was due to news Theresa May lacks support from the cabinet to push her Brexit plan through. It seems that every time the UK on the cusp of a deal there is a problem created not only from Brussels, but also from inner fighting within parliament.

It seems the Chequers plan was reluctantly backed in the first place due to the need for progress and the threat of a no deal. The backing of the deal has been described as a deeply undesirable compromise. A minster said that most of those who backed the deal did so “with a very heavy heart”.

Two cabinet ministers last night announced on the BBC that there is little chance that  the current deal would get through parliament and the Theresa May still pursuing agreement on the is deal could be considered “self harming”.

Even if a deal is agreed with Brussels the deal must then be voted through by the cabinet in January.

The EU withdrawal Act of 2018 highlights that the government must announce before 21st January  if it can or cannot reach a deal. If the date in not met the government will have 5 days to make a statement outlining how the UK wishes to proceed and subsequent arrangements for the motion to be passed through parliament.

Despite all this news I am still of the opinion a deal will be reached despite all the in house fighting, the consequences of not getting a deal is simply too great. Talks are intensifying and if there is solid news on the Irish Border I think we could see a Sterling rally. If you are looking at risk reward and are selling the Australian Dollar I would not hesitate to take advantage of current levels at 1.78. Pre-Brexit GBP/AUD was 2.20, although I do not expect a rally of this extent I think it is important to remember Sterling is chronically undervalued.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

 

 

 

RBA interest rate decision tonight to impact Australian Dollar exchange rates – Positive Brexit news helps the Pound make gains against Australian Dollar

In terms of Australian Dollar news, all eyes will be on the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement overnight tonight. One of the key factors that has led to Australian Dollar weakness over the past few months has been the fact that interest rates have remained static at a record low now for 26 months.

With other economies such as the U.S gradually raising interest rates we have seen a huge flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S dollar as investors seek a better rate of return in what is perceived as a safer and more stable currency.

Historically a higher interest rate has strengthened a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors. It is now expected that due to the spiralling household debt and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne dropping off significantly in the past 12 months, an interest rate hike may only add pressure to the economy, so the RBA may remain reluctant to make any bold moves for the time being.

The rate is unlikely to change tonight but the rate statement will be key, as speculation on any future changes will move the markets accordingly.

We have seen a slight uplift in the value of the Pound against the Australian Dollar in the past week or so, this has been mainly down to apparent Brexit progress and the U.K seemingly edging closer to an initial deal with the EU.

As many regular readers will know the Australian Dollar exchange rate against the Pound is fairly susceptible to Brexit news, and the fact that things are looking up for the U.K negotiations team has led to strength for the Pound.

All in all this is an important time for the Australian Dollar, with trade wars between Trump and China seeming to progress, interest rates remaining static and for those looking to carry out an exchange involving GBP having Brexit to contend with too it really is vital that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

If you would like my assistance then I have helped thousands of people buy or sell Australian Dollars for well over a decade and I will be happy to have a chat with you to see if I can assist you too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to have a no obligation chat to discuss a pending transaction with you. Not only should I be able to help you achieve a better rate of exchange than you are currently being offered but I would like to think our level of service is second to none too.

 

Retail Sales down under disappoint but AUD remains resilient, where to next for the GBP/AUD pair?

Despite some disappointing data being released in the early hours of this morning, the Aussie Dollar has remained resilient against the Pound even though its dropped off of it’s 1-month high against the US Dollar.

Retail Sales rose just 0.2% through September which was below expectations, and now there are concerns that 3rd quarter economic growth could disappoint. The GDP figure for the 3rd quarter will be released in early December so I expect economic data releases covering the Australian economies health to be followed closely. Despite the softening against the US Dollar as a result of this morning’s early release the AUD/USD rate has still strengthened by over 1.5% throughout this week.

The Aussie Dollar has also gained value vs the Pound this week although not quite to the same extent as AUD/USD. Moving forward the pair are most likely to be driven more by the Pound’s value and how its impacted by the Brexit developments. Sterling has strengthened against a raft of currencies over the past few days after a number of positive updates have been released. On Wednesday the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab suggested that the deal could be in place by November the 21st, which saw a spike in GBP exchange rates as hopes of the deal being wrapped up during this month had waned after talks stalled during October.

Then on Thursday morning news broke that there is a deal in principle for the UK to retain access to EU financial markets after the Brexit has taken place, and this also pushed GBP exchange rates higher which is in my opinion why the Aussie Dollars gains against the Pound this week haven’t been as substantial as the they have vs the USD.

If you’re planning on making a currency transfer involving the pairs discussed today, and would like an opinion on the rates or an update if they move dramatically, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Could we see further gains for AUD? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – We have seen gains for the Australian Dollar against sterling of late, however I think this is more down to current situation with Brexit rather than positive news on the Australian economy. I believe Sterling would be making advances against the Aussie were it not for the debacle that is Brexit.

GBP/AUD currently just sits above 1.80, testing what has been a key resistance point in the past 12 months. I am of the belief we could see further Aussie gains as Brexit talks intensify. If I had to make a call on what I think will occur, it will be that talks will go the eleventh hour and a deal will be agreed. The last date at which a deal can be agreed will be the EU summit in mid-December, I would expect there to be a significant Sterling rally, but keep in mind that if a deal is agreed it will have to be voted through by the House of Commons in January, if it gets the OK expect GBP to gain further ground.

Although December is the EU summit where I expect a deal to be agreed. If I was an Aussie seller I would be wary, if a deal is coming close to fruition it will be in the press and the markets will react, the market moves on rumour as well as fact. Keep in mind pre-Brexit GBP/AUD sat above 2.20. There are dangers for the Aussie due to the Chines – US trade war. Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials is a burden in this circumstance. The tariffs in place are hurting Chinese growth which in turn is hurting the Australian economy. The trade war is set to intensify and be prolonged. During times of global economic uncertainty investors flee riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in search of safe haven investments with higher returns. If I was selling Aussies I would take advantage of current levels or if you have a high risk appetite consider performing a tranche at current levels for safety.

If you have a currency requirement, please do get in touch I will be happy to assist. Yo can drop me a mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson.

 

Chinese GDP falls but Brexit talks may be extended so Pound gains vs the Australian Dollar are limited

Overnight the world’s second largest economy China confirmed that it grew at its slowest quarterly rate in ten years as the problems of the US-China Trade Wars appear to be having an impact on the economy.

According to official sources the previous quarter showed growth of 6.5% compared to the year before and this was short of the forecast figure of 6.6%.

However, although the headline figure is clearly a concern for the country it was still in line with the government’s target for this year of 6.5%.

Typically this would result in Australian Dollar weakness as China is their largest trading partner so any slow down will often result in problems for the Aussie Dollar.  However, as we have seen during the course of this week the Pound has faced some problems owing to the roadblock concerning the latest Brexit talks which appear not to have gone anywhere at this week’s EU summit.

Indeed, the latest news appears to be that the parties involved are looking to extend the current time lines in order to ensure a smoother Brexit. The European Union has offered to extend the amount of time needed for the post-transitional period for the UK.

This has caused the Pound to come to a bit of a brick wall in terms of making further advances against the Australian Dollar and next month’s Brexit summit appears to have been cancelled for the time being.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years and I’m confident that with my experience I can help you with both the timing of your transfer of Australian Dollars as well as being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank.

Please send me an email with your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

AUD Forecast – What are the Factors Driving GBP/AUD Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped slightly during Thursday’s trading, with the AUD continuing to find support around the current levels.

The pair fell to a low of 1.8338, having been trading above 1.84 at its high over night.

The Pound has failed to make any sustained inroads against the AUD since the weekend, after premature talk of a Brexit agreement caused a sharp sell-off of GBP positions on Sunday.

This put the Pound on the back foot when trading lines opened on Monday. It has been a tough week for Sterling, which has seen its value decrease by around three cents, or the equivalent of 3000 AUD on 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

I anticipate that the AUD will now find plenty of support again around 1.85, when it seemed as though the Pound was set for a run on 1.90 last week, when a Brexit deal looked imminent.

This is another prime example of how the markets may price in an expected political outcome, only to see the currency in questions value diminish when the expected result does now come to fruition.

Looking at the driving factors behind GBP/AUD and any updates or breakthrough in Brexit talks, will no doubt boost investor confidence and the Pound is likely to benefit as a result. Similarly any talk of a no-deal outcome again and it will likely have the opposite e effect.

Looking at the Australian economy and current slowdown in global trade is certainly having a negative impact. This, along with the current trade war between the US & China is causing investors to shy away from riskier currencies such as the AUD. We generally see commodity-based currencies such as the AUD lose value during times of global economic uncertainty.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

GBP/AUD hits lowest level in 10-days as Brexit issues weigh on the Pound

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest levels of the past 10-days. This has happened after GBP/AUD hit an annual high of just over 1.87 last week, which was also the highest level since the major drop in June of 2016 when the Brexit vote outcome was announced.

Sterling had hit such high levels against AUD as hopes of a Brexit deal being agreed shortly were high. These hopes are now fading and GBP exchange rates have softened across the board of major currency pairs as it now look likely that UK and EU negotiators will not be able to agree on the terms of the Brexit deal by the EU’s deadline.

Later this week there will be an EU Summit in Brussels and the main focus is expected to be the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will give a speech to the EU leaders regarding her plans and the progress made so far. There will also be meeting behind closed door’s that she isn’t invited to, and depending on the outcome of the recent negotiations and the EU Summit this week I think there could be movement for the GBP to AUD rate.

The Aussie Dollar hasn’t lost a dramatic amount of value against the Pound as markets will still be holding out for a Brexit deal by November, but seeing GBP/AUD drop over the past few trading days is worth considering for those of our clients planning on making a transfer.

From the Australian side there will be Employment data out of Thursday at 1.30am UK time. If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Outlook for Pound Sterling vs the Australian Dollar rates and could we see 1.90 before the end of this month?

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has seen some very positive movements over the last few weeks and this has caused GBPAUD exchange rates to hit the best level to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds for over two years when the Brexit vote took place in June 2016.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned of the risks that the Australian economy is facing over the issue of the trade wars between the US and China and at the moment this issue is still rumbling on with no signs of dissipating.

Chinese stock markets have fallen by over 20% in the year to date and as China is such a large trading partner for Australia any signs of a slowdown can really harm the value of the Australian Dollar and this is one of the reasons for the weakness of the Australian Dollar recently.

Signs coming from the Brexit talks are that things are getting relatively close to reaching a conclusion and it appears, at least for the moment, that a deal may be reached fairly soon which has helped to support the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is due in Brussels on Monday and hopes are that he is there to try and tie up a deal but I cannot see this happening just yet.

Indeed, the EU summit will be held on Wednesday for two days and there is a hope that a deal may be reached and if so we could see a very volatile period coming up for anyone thinking about moving Sterling either to buy or sell Australian Dollars.

Following this summit there is another meeting planned for November and I think this is when a deal between both the UK and the European Union will be reached and this could give Sterling the momentum it has been looking for to continue upwards vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months involving Australian Dollars then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What can we expect next for the Australian dollar?

The expectation is the for the Australian dollar to continue to face headwinds as the market tries to assess its attractiveness over the longer term. With Australia struggling whilst some other assets become more attractive, the pressure is on for the antipodean currency. Having lost value in recent weeks as market expectations deteriorate, what can we expect in the short term?

To answer some of the questions over the Australian dollar’s recent performance look no further than the United States. A key factor in this has been two fold from the US with raising interest rates and the Trade Wars both weighing on the performance of the Aussie dollar.

In raising interest rates to 2.25%, the US dollar is now a much more attractive currency to be holding from an investors point of view, versus the 1.5% on offer from Australia. With regard to the future prospects in this department, it appears likely that the US will be continuing to raise interest rates. This will only increase the trend we have seen of late and continue the pressure on the Australian currency.

On the subject of Trade Wars, these do not appear to be diminishing and therefore the Australian dollar should remain under pressure as these potentially intensify or remain in place. Expectations for the Australian dollar will continue to focus on its attractiveness to hold but with these issues continuing and wider concerns in the global economy about just what lies ahead, the Aussie might find more troubled waters ahead.

Next week is Unemployment data which will be a big driver on the exchange rate and could see a shift. There is a focus on Australian interest rates too and we could easily see this data impacting future decisions. Whilst no hikes are likely down under anytime soon, this is a more short term factor to move rates.

Thank you for reading this post and I would be delighted to speak to you if you have a currency transaction to make in the coming weeks. Please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.