Category Archives: Best Rates

Could the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar this month and possible reasons why? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has been steadily increasing against the Australian Dollar since the turn of the year and although we have seen some small losses for the Pound, generally speaking the market for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars has been very positive.

With the US threatening to continue raising interest rates the next interest rate hike by the Fed is likely to come in March and this is in part why we have seen the Australian Dollar struggle against the Pound.

On Tuesday the latest set of minutes are due to be released by the Reserve Bank of Australia and I think this could provide the catalyst for Sterling strength against the Australian Dollar as I think the RBA will be relatively cautious in their tone.

If you look at the markets through the eyes of a global investors if you have available funds it is likely that you would look to invest in the US as with interest rates planned to be going up as well as strong growth in the world’s leading economy this could potentially be a good investment.

This could result in a sell off for riskier based currencies such as the AUD and this is why I think in the longer term that we’ll see GBPAUD exchange rates challenge 1.80 before the end of this month.

On Tuesday the UK releases the latest Quarterly Inflation Report Hearings and as inflation has continued to remain higher than the target I think this will put pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates possibly as early as May.

On Wednesday the latest UK unemployment data is due to be published and although this has been very strong one of the concerns is Average Earnings which have been lagging behind inflation so this could see a bit of volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates in the middle of the week.

If you would like to free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me directly with a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

RBA Interest Rate Forecast vital to AUD value (Daniel Johnson)

NAB predict Rate Hike as early as August

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has a very optimistic forecast in regards to rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). They are a minority. They are of the opinion we could see an interest rate hike by 0.25 basus points as early as August.

“The RBA has indicated that it is in no rush to raise rates in lock-step with global central bank counterparts. However, lower unemployment, and evidence of wages growth moving upwards — even gradually — should be enough to give the RBA confidence that inflation will eventually lift above the bottom of the band,” said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist.

“We continue to forecast two 25 basis point rate hikes in August and November, although acknowledge the risks are that these hikes could be delayed.”
Oster attached a couple of warnings which could change the RBA’s decision, noting that a slowing in household credit and house prices due to macro-prudential measures implemented by APRA “may help alleviate some concerns about household debt”.He continued “higher AUD may also threaten this outlook although our revised forecasts are for the currency to be 75 US cents by year end”.

Personally I do not share his view. I think a hike by August is very optimistic and economic data is not consistent enough to warrant a hike . Inflation is some way from where it needs to be and there is no reason to suggest there will be a rapid rise between now and August. This a viewpoint shared by the man that counts. RBA Governor, Philip Lowe who recently stated the following.

“further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to the midpoint of the target range”, adding that it was “likely that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be up, not down”.

He also said “while we do expect steady progress, that progress is likely to be only gradual.

The general consensus is there will not be a rate hike until at least early 2019.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will Australian Unemployment data send GBPAUD rates towards 1.80? (Tom Holian)

We are in for a big end to the week for anyone looking to transfer Australian Dollars as tomorrow brings with it a number of economic data releases down under.

We start tomorrow with the latest Unemployment figures for January as well as the Participation Rate which rose last month showing a small slowdown in Australia and this has weakened the AUD vs GBP following last month’s announcement.

I expect another slightly negative release for Australia overnight and I think this could provide the Pound with some support vs the Australian Dollar sending GBPAUD exchange rates in an upwards direction.

The Australian Dollar has remained under a lot of pressure against Sterling since the start of the year as the Australian economy has shown signs of a slowdown with the RBA unsure about what to do with monetary policy.

Inflation levels are very different from the west to the east coast and so a change in interest rates will not necessarily be of benefit to the whole country which is why the RBA are likely to keep interest rates on hold.

Meanwhile, the UK have hinted that the next interest rate hike may be coming in May and this is why I think we could see GBPAUD rates heading towards 1.80 before the end of the month. We end the week with RBA Governor Philip Lowe addressing the market so make sure you’re prepared to move quickly.

If you’re in the process of looking to transfer Australian Dollars and would like to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am confident not only with being able to offer you better exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your trade.

For further information or a free quote email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

AUD Forecast – UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson Speaking Today (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained flat overnight, as the markets turn their attention towards today’s speech by UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

The speech is expected to outline the governments vision to untie both the Leave & Remain camps and whilst it has been sanctioned by No 10, Boris has a tendency to deliver the unexpected.

The speech is likely to have strong undertone but it is no secret of Boris’s political ambition and any indication of a fractured government, or disjointed approach to the Brexit talks, could put pressure back on the Pound.

In truth, Sterling has held its positions against the AUD better than it has against many other major currencies, with GBP/AUD rates continuing to float around 1.77.

Commodity based currencies such as the AUD are often considered riskier currencies for investors. This means that at time of global prosperity when investor confidence is high, funds will be moved away from the safer haven currencies such as the USD or CHF and into these potentially higher yielding ones.

Whilst there is no direct correlation to the currency markets, last week’s downturn in the global stock markets has seemingly sapped investors risk appetite and as such this is likely to put pressure on commodity based currencies such as the AUD.

Whilst there are many external factors to consider, this is one of the reasons why the AUD is struggling to make much of an impact against GBP, despite the currency uncertainty engulfing the UK economy.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate recover back to pre-Brexit levels anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a 1 and a half cent difference between the high and low for GBP/AUD today, as the pair appear to be continuing to decide which direction to move in next.

Sterling has performed in a mixed fashion against the majority of major currency pairs today and I think the economic data released this morning is perhaps one of the reasons for this.

This morning the office for national statistics (ONS) reported that annualised UK Inflation figures for January showed 3%, justifying the Bank of England’s concerns regarding the rising rates of inflation. This was above the expectation of 2.9% and and considerably above the BoE’s 2% inflationary target figure.

The potential for another rate hike from the BoE is now more realistic, and with wage growth now beginning to show signs of an improvement I think there is a chance of it happening this year which is why the pound has been climbing.

GBP/AUD is currently just under 1.80, and if the pair breach this key level I can imagine seeing the rate break through into the 1.80’s even if it’s proving a stubborn barrier up until this point. A move towards 2.00 would be back to pre-Brexit levels, and should AUD continue to weaken I think seeing GBP/AUD closer to this mark sometime throughout 2018 isn’t something to be ruled out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar liable to global stock market sell off and RBA warning leads to Australian Dollar weakness

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly choppy week so far this week, generally losing ground against most major currencies due to comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia that indicated that any interest rate hikes may be quite far away, and also due to global uncertainty in the stock market, seeing the Dow Jones and other indexes around the world drop considerably over the week.

The issue with the Australian Dollar is that it is perceived as a riskier currency, therefore when you tend to see a volatile global market, and uncertainty politically or with economic data  around the world you tend to see the Australian Dollar weaken, as investors will shy away from riskier currencies and head to safer havens, such as the U.S Dollar and the Swiss Franc.

As I indicated earlier in the week I do feel that the Australian Dollar may have a tough period coming up, with interest rates due to be raised by various central banks around the world this may lead to a further flow out of the Australian Dollar and into more attractive currencies with better returns on investment.

The RBA also released a monetary policy statement last night, and although economic data is still fairly good there are concerns around slowing wage growth and inflation rising too.

Poor wage growth and high inflation is a big issue for an economy, as it means the cost of goods and services is going up yet the amount the general consumer has to spend is not rising in line with it, another potential issue for the Australian Dollar going forward.

Not only do we offer up to date market information for our readers but we can actually help you with any currency exchanges too, with top foreign exchange rates and a smooth and efficient service. With over ten years of experience in foreign exchange I would like to think I could be an excellent addition to your armoury when taking on these volatile markets. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally or to get you a live quote.

BOE comments causes Sterling Spike (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – In Depth

Sterling has struggled against the Aussie following the decision to hold a referendum to leave the EU. GBP/AUD sat above 2.20 pre referendum and of late has been mired in the 1.70s. We have seen a recent spike for Sterling which can be atributed to several contributing factors.

Although there was a recent surge in retail sales figures from down under the spike for the Australain Dollar did not last long, as predicted it was an an anomamly that could be put down to Black Friday sales and the release of the iphone X.

Since then the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have indicated that they will keep interest rates on hold for the considerable future the Aussie has lost value. This can be justified due to the infalted property prices in high wage growth areas. Foreign investors are willing  to pay these prices as investments but it is causing the locals to struggle spending the majority of their funds on neccesities rather than luxury goods. This does not bode well for the Aussie.

The recent surge to 1.79 was caused by hints from the Bank of England (BOE) there could be a rate hike as early as May 2018. The market moves on rumour as well as fact and investors bit.

It is important not to have too high expectations if you are an AUD buyer however, the uncertainty surrounding phase two of Brexit talks has the potential to hurt the pound. Davis and Barnier are far from being on the same hymn sheet.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Bet against the Australian Dollar in 2018? It appears many are doing just that!

The Australian Dollar has not had the worst start to 2018 but it does appear that many major banks and institutions are not expecting AUD exchange rates to have such a good year.

We must be wary that we have seen this a couple of times over the past few years with the vastly predicted Chinese slowdown that still does not appear to have come along.

This time however there are multiple sources out there suggesting a drop in value and the reasons are far more justified and likely. The RBA appear to be holding off on any rate changes for the first part of 2018 compared to various other economies around the world looking to raise rates. An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency so this may lead to money moving out of the Australian Dollar and into more currencies such as the USD should the States raise rates numerous times in 2018.

There is an expectation of commodity prices dropping off throughout 2018 too, with Iron Ore being one of the most notable for the Australian Dollar, with this being one of the larger exports for Australia this is expected to impact export income which may have a knock on effect to the economy.

Finally, Morgan Stanley have also been advocating that clients should consider taking a position for the Australian Dollar to lose ground against the Euro and many others have commented that losses against the Dollar have been spoken about by various financial institutions.

In my opinion I would not be surprised to see Australian Dollar exchange rates to have a fairly poor year, however we do need to also remember that the Australian Dollar does appear to have a fairly strong backbone and the RBA can change their stance regularly so this is still very much a currency to watch very closely.

Currency exchange to make in the near future?

If you need to make a large exchange, involving the buying or selling any major currency then it is key that you get in touch with us to see if we can save you money. This site has been running for over 7 years and I have personally dealt with thousands of new clients that have found they can get a better rate through us rather than their current brokerage, we like the think the service is much better too.

If you would like a quote or to discuss plans for a future transaction then you are welcome to contact me, Daniel Wright, the creator of this site personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to run through exactly how I can help and what rates we can offer.

GBP/AUD remains at 1.77 after RBA opts to hold interest rates (Joseph Wright)

The Reserve Bank of Australia last night chose to keep interest rates unchanged, which was the expected outcome from economists leaving the currency markets unchanged at 1.5%.

This was the first chance the RBA had to make a change this year, and the base rate has remained at 1.5% for around a year and a half now. Many central banks have opted to hike interest rates in recent months, and should this continue it will result in the Australian interest rates being uncompetitive and therefore AUD weakness in my opinion.

Last year AUD benefited from offering one of the highest interest rates in the developed world. Investors are keen to hold funds in a high yielding currency but should AUD lose its competitive edge, it’s likely that money will be taken out of the Aussie Dollar and we’ll see it fall.

Politics also have the potential to move the GBP/AUD pair, especially at the moment as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is in London to discuss the UK’s plans and proposals for Brexit this week.

Those following the Pounds value should be aware of this and the potential it has to impact GBP exchange rates should any key comments be made, and do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major rate spike.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

RBA interest rate decision and press conference overnight, along with retail sales, import and export figures too

We have plenty of market data for the market to get stuck into this week, with the Australian Dollar struggling a little recently this may also lead to further weakness for the Australian Dollar unless we hear some positive news.

There have been numerous analysts commenting recently that they felt we may see a slight period of turbulence for the Australian Dollar and one of the reasons behind this had been expectations of very little interest rate movement throughout 2018.

A higher interest rate is generally good for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors. The Australian interest rate spent quite some time being much more beneficial than that of most other majors which is why the Australian Dollar has remained so strong over the past few years.

What we are seeing now is that other major economies (such as the U.S and U.K) are starting to raise their interest rates, most notably the U.S and this is leading to investors moving their money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, thus weakening the Australian Dollar and making it cheaper to buy.

Expectations are for three further interest rate hikes from the U.S this year and with both the U.S and Australian interest rate sat at 1.5% a further move from the states may lead to this flow of money out of AUD as explained above.

This is why focus is on the RBA and their Tuesday interest rate decision, no changes to rates are expected but it will be comments in their following statement that will be watched very closely, as any hint in future rate changes (or that they plan not to make any changes this year) may lead to sharp Australian Dollar movements.

The other economic data will also be important, but I feel that the star of the show will be any news on the next move from the RBA.

If you have a currency exchange to make in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like assistance then I can help you. Having working at my current brokerage for over ten years I am in a good position to not only help you with the timing of your transfer but also getting the best rate of exchange when you do come to book it.

For more information or simply to get a quote on the rates that we can offer feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back in touch with you.