Category Archives: GBP to AUD

Sterling falls against the Australian dollar due to meaningful vote cancelled

In recent weeks the pound has been falling dramatically against the Australian dollar and this trend continued throughout yesterday trading session as Theresa May cancelled the meaningful vote in Parliament. Furthermore the Prime Minister made a statement about why she had cancelled the vote and the general consensus was because she was going to lose and therefore she was going back to Brussels this week for further guarantees. Following the statement in the House of Commons Theresa May answered questions from fellow MPs and the Prime Minister came under further pressure and this was represented in the exchange rates.

GBPAUD dropped throughout the day from 1.7725 to 1.7475. To put this into monetary value a AU$400,000 transfer now costs an additional £3,300 compared to this time yesterday. 

The Prime Minister has now flown to Hague to discuss Brexit with Mr Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Mr Rutte has been known to give an extra helping hand for the Prime Minister and this is why I believe this is her first trip. Thereafter she is set to travel to Berlin to meet to meet Angela Merkel and then hold talks with the European Commission.

If its the case the Prime Minister fails to receive further reassurances from the EU, it looks like her days are numbered. If the Prime Minister was ousted or resigns a leadership contest would take at least a couple of weeks especially over the Christmas period. therefore I expect this would put further pressure on sterling and GBPAUD would fall further.

Looking further ahead I expect the pound will continue to decline against the Australian dollar and fall to the low 1.70s or even the high 1.60s. However if the Prime Minister manages to get further concession which is extremely unlikely the pound could rebound significantly making Australian dollars cheaper to buy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast: Brexit vote to impact GBPAUD exchange rates

The Pound has had a very good week against the Australian Dollar but has started to struggle towards the end of the week in anticipation of next week’s Brexit vote in parliament.

MPs have been debating for the last few days over the current deal and at the moment it appears highly unlikely that this deal will get approved when the vote takes place on 11th December.

Earlier this week the government were found in contempt and then were forced to release the legal documents advising on Brexit.

Theresa May has been busily campaigning in favour of trying to convince MPs to vote through this current deal but according to a number of different media reports this is highly unlikely to get the votes needed to approve the deal on offer.

If Theresa May does not get the votes needed there are a number of different alternatives as to what may happen next week. Some have suggested that she may even stand down but owing to her bullish personality I think that she will stay as long as she can.

The next option available to Theresa May is to go back to Brussels on 13th December to try and see if she can renegotiate alternative terms to that on offer but this will be very difficult as the UK and European Union have already agreed this current deal in principle so they may not wish to budge at this late stage.

Over this weekend Downing Street has denied claims that Theresa May could even delay the vote in an attempt to avoid losing. Rumours are circulating that the Prime Minister is planning to go back to the European Union to try and get a better deal before the vote is held.

At the moment the current deal on offer is struggling to get the support it needs to be approved by MPs so if May manages to change some of the terms this could help to provide support to the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can offer you a bank beating exchange rate as well as helping you with the timing. 

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Australian dollar Falls after Chinese Arrest by US Authorities (James Lovick)

Despite the Brexit uncertainty ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote next week the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has recovered after the CFO of a Chinese Telecoms giant Huawei was arrested in Canada by US authorities after allegedly breaching US Iranian sanctions. There was recent optimism for a cooling of trade tensions after the G20 summit last weekend following a positive talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

A 90 day pause on future trade tariffs was agreed to try and find a way forward which in fact helped strengthen the Australian dollar. This new political upset could make the negotiations difficult especially if there is an escalation of events. Rates for GBP to AUD have now moved higher to 1.7650 for the pair.

Those looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds should be braced for major volatility around the time of the meaningful vote to be held in parliament on the terms of the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. It is looking highly unlikely that she will win the vote and the markets are now speculating as to how many votes she loses by. If she lost by under 100 the feeling is that this would be manageable and she could possibly go to Brussels in the hope of finding a solution to the Irish backstop. However there is talk that the number could be more like 200 which could see the Prime Minster go at this crucial stage at the end of the Brexit process.

Some Conservative members are suggesting delaying the vote to find a solution and to ovoid what could be a fatal defeat for Theresa May. The outcome of this vote will almost certainly dictate the future direction for the pound and clients would be wise to plan around this event. The volatility to follow could be similar to that seen after the Brexit referendum in 2016. Should a deal eventually be reached between Britain and the EU then there could be major gains for the pound and a good opportunity for buying Australian dollars. The risk of a no deal scenario though cannot be ruled out and is probably looking the more likely of the two options.

I have been helping clients move their funds to and from Australia at excellent rates of exchange for fifteen years. For more information and guidance timing your exchange around these events please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar strengthens following China/US Truce (Daniel Johnson)

Trump holds back on Tariffs

Following the G20 in Buenos Aries the United States and China have called a truce on their trade war. On Saturday Trump agreed to hold back on new tariffs and President XI Jinping has pledged to increase Chinese purchases on US goods. Be wary of thinking this trade war is over however, further negotiations are ahead and they are set to be time consuming and problematic. Both leaders still seem to be holding their stance on the key problems of trade.

Trump has agreed to postpone a plan to raise tariffs on USD 200bln worth of goods to 25% from 10% in January. The Chinese have agreed to increase their purchases of industrial, agricultural and energy products which China had hot with retaliatory tariffs after Trump had implemented a wide range of tariffs.

There are now set to be 90 days of talks and Trump has threatened that if the trade differences are not resolved he will proceed with his 25% tariff.

Brexit Farce continues

The Truce has caused a spike in Australian Dollar value making further gains against Sterling which is also being weighed down by the complete farce which is Brexit. May’s Brexit deal is due to be voted on by parliament on 11th December and it is being widely criticised. If the vote does not go through Labour will challenge May’s position which would no doubt hit the Pound further. There is also the possibility that if the deal is not voted through amendments will be made before a second vote within 14 days of the first. I hope this is the more likely outcome as the alternative would mean chaos and no doubt sterling will take a severe hit.

I am afraid short term Sterling has little chance of making any significant gains against the majority of major currencies. If you have to move short to medium term I would consider performing a tranche at current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

 

 

 

Brexit Impact papers push Sterling lower against the Australian Dollar

After a strong start to the trading session yesterday, Sterling exchange rates have seen their fortunes reverse since yesterday afternoon when Brexit Impact papers were released by both the Government as well as the Bank of England.

Both releases suggested that the UK will be worse off by carrying out the Brexit with the BoE outlining a number of worse case scenarios for the UK economy in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Their report outlined the potential for the Pound to lose 25% of its value against both the Euro and the US Dollar which would put Sterling below parity vs both of these key currencies. Property market falls of 30% were also contained within this worst case scenario Brexit report as well as unemployment potentially rising to 7.5% and since this report we’ve seen a sell-off of the Pound’s value which has accelerated this morning.

After almost reaching 1.77 yesterday we’ve seen the pair drop below 1.75 this morning which goes to show how much the currency has been impacted by these reports. It’s also worth noting that the Australian Dollar has lost value recently owing to the sharp drop in the value of iron ore which is a key export of the Australia’s. Iron ore prices have dropped by 9% this week which represents the largest drop in over a year. The rhetoric between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders has also ramped up with concerns of a global slowdown owing to the trade war once again impacting currencies such as AUD’s.

Economic data releases are light for the remainder of the week between the UK and Australia so it’s likely that Brexit talks will remain the main driver of currency fluctuations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the current Brexit deal make it through Parliament? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Brexit continues to be the main driver on GBP/AUD. Despite little movement on the market we did see significant progress in negotiations this weekend. Yesterday saw the current Breixt draft agreed. The deal was accepted by Brussels after just 38 minutes. All 27 member states endorsed the agreement after 18 months of  uncertainty. The £37 billion exit fee was confirmed along with the elusive back stop agreement on the Irish Border. It also gave an insight into trade relations moving forward.

Perhaps the reason we did not see a boost in Sterling was that the market had already moved on rumour. It was common knowledge that the deal would go through following May conceding on the Gibraltar situation. Investors are aware the real test for the deal is when it is put before parliament for acceptance. This is expected to take place in the next two weeks prior to the Christmas recess.

May has also released an open letter to the public in an attempt to get support for the deal. She has stated it is this deal or no deal. The majority pf book makers have it at around 50/50 the bill will be passed.

Theresa May’s position under Threat

Theresa May’s position is still under threat, there are rumours of around 35 letters of no confidence that have been put forward, 45 are required for a leadership challenge. It may be the case that some MPs are hanging on for an opportune moment as a leadership challenge can only be undertaken once over a 12 month period.

While the deal has not been approved by parliament I expect the Pound to remain vulnerable. If I had to put my money on it I would say a deal will go through. The threat for the Tories is that if a leadership challenge takes place and the potential new leader fails to gain a majority victory they could be looking at a general election and risk Labour gaining power. Brexit would also be thrown completely up in the air. No doubt this would cause Sterling weakness.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.

I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP to AUD Exchange Rates Uncertain ahead of EU Summit 25th Nov (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates remain on the back foot as uncertainty over Brexit continues to the big driver for GBP to AUD rates. The pound is trading at just over 1.76 against the Australian dollar and whilst there has been some support this week any major improvement is likely to be limited for the pound. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still trying to seal a deal on the political declaration for the future trading relationship between the UK and EU and a meeting last night failed to provide a breakthrough. Theresa May will now fly back to Brussels on Saturday ahead of the emergency EU summit which commences on Sunday.

The political declaration will be an important component to the deal and the specific wording of the text will help determine whether parliament will vote in favour of the deal that is almost on the table. Ultimately it will all come down to a meaningful vote in parliament on the final deal which will decide the future of the UK and the pound in the short term. It leaves a very uncertain few weeks for sterling exchange rates whilst the markets await this key vote in parliament.

The Australian dollar could come under some renewed pressure in these coming weeks as the issue of trade wars continues to impact on global markets. So far there has been no compromise for a future trade deal between the US and China as preparation are being made behind the scenes for a summit in Buenos Aires. Relations are likely to become even more tense as both Europe and China seek to argue that Donald Trump cannot continue to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium on the basis of national security.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will need to rule on this subject and the outcome will likely create added turmoil in the financial markets. If for example the WTO challenged the US on this point then in an extreme scenario the US could find itself breaking away from the WTO entirely. This could see a flight to safety to the US dollar leaving the Australian dollar in a risky position. Once again there is another focal point in the diary which will help direct GBP vs AUD.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to find the optimum time to convert funds either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Aussie Dollar comes under pressure as US-China tensions resurface, and fears of a global slowdown take hold

The Australian Dollar has come under pressure in early trading today, although the fall has a lot further to go to wipe out the gains made by AUD over the past month and a half. Against the US Dollar the currency has lost over 1% over the past 24-hours as investors have piled into safe haven currencies and taken funds out of riskier currencies such as the Aussie.

Over in the US the Federal Reserve Bank has indicated plans for a less aggressive monetary policy next year than the markets had previously anticipated, and signs of a global slowdown with stock markets still selling off is concerning financial markets hence the sell-off.

AUD exchange rates haven’t been helped by comments out of the White House yesterday either. In the lead up to the G20 meeting next week there have been hopes of a truce between US President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but yesterday as the White House said Beijing has failed to alter its ‘unfair’ practices. As China is such a key trading partner of Australia’s this is negative news for AUD which perhaps explains yesterday’s sell-off of the Aussie Dollar.

There are no economic data releases out of Australia this week, so I expect the GBP/AUD rate to continue to be driven by Brexit related updates which are coming through thick and fast at the moment. UK PM, Theresa May will be in Brussels today to discuss the Brexit agreement text with EU leaders for the first time since the text was announced last week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Australian Dollar loses ground against most major currencies as trade war tension rises

Australian Dollar exchange rates have dropped away against all major currencies in treading today as tensions between the U.S and China rose once again over the weekend.

The Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar topped the weakest major currencies of the day and much of this can be pinned down to the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

As many regular readers will be aware any heightened tensions between the U.S and China can lead to weakness for the Australian Dollar, as the Australian economy can be susceptible to bad news from China.

 RBA meeting minutes tomorrow morning

We have seen a slight improvement in certain areas of the Australian economy recently, however most analysts do not believe that there has been enough to warrant a change in stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding any interest rate changes. Interest rates have remained stable in Australia for a long time now and this is also another reason why the Australian Dollar has lost ground against a number of major currencies over the course of the year.

An higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors as it means they are offered a greater level of return for their money, and with other central banks such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S raising rates on numerous occasions over the past year or so the Australian Dollar has been somewhat left behind.

Should the RBA take a more positive tone in their meeting minutes tomorrow then we may see a little strength back for the Australian Dollar, should their stance remain the same then focus will be back on any political news, such as the trade wars and for those that have an interest in the Australian Dollar against the pound then Brexit and Theresa May will be key.

Should you have the need to buy or sell a large volume of Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to contact you personally.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – GBP AUD Crashes after Brexit Secretary Resigns (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have crashed dramatically with rates falling by more than 2% to the lows of 1.75/1.76 after a brutal day in British politics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reached an agreement with the EU over the draft withdrawal agreement but support from her cabinet is not unanimous. So far and in a single day there were seven government resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominc Raab which sent the pound tumbling. GBP to AUD rates now face yet another volatile day as the markets prepare for more government resignations and a possible leadership challenge.

Brexit supporter and chair of the backbench European Research Group has called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and believes that enough letters to the 1922 Committee will be reached in the comings days to trigger a vote of no confidence. The Prime Minister must also put in place a new Brexit Secretary and it has been reported that Environment Secretary Michael Gove has turned down the offer. Where that leaves Michael Gove is less clear and many are expecting a resignation which would add more pressure on Theresa May and further weakness for the GBP to AUD pair. The outlook is so uncertain in British politics that there is room for further weakness for the pound against the Australian dollar in the short term.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has been boosted after strong employment data down under pointing to health consumer spending. A further 42,300 jobs were created in October which was significantly higher than the September reading. This will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia which has held concerns over weak wage growth and low inflation. The belief is that an improving labour market will feed through to higher wages which will allow the central bank to start raising interest rates. This is starting to look likely for 2019 with a good chance we may see the first rate hike in August next year.

There are likely to be major movements in these coming days. For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk