Category Archives: GBP to AUD

Will further interest rate cuts result in a drop for the Australian Dollar this year?

The Australian Dollar has continued to come under pressure recently which has helped the Pound recoup some of its recent losses against the currency. One of the reasons for the downturn for AUD is due to the interest rate cut that took place earlier this month, which has pushed Australian interest rates down to record lows. There are now predictions of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia with some financial institutions predicting two further cuts this year, which would push the rate down to 0.75% and likely have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollars value.

Aside from these forecasts of rate cuts due to the slowing economy, another reason for Aussie Dollar weakness is due to the ongoing US-China trade war saga, which has caused concerns for the Australian economy moving forward. I would expect to see AUD exchange rates continue to struggle whilst this continues, owing to the fact that China is the countries main trading partner.

From the UK side the Conservative leadership contest is likely to remain the key driver, with Boris Johnson remaining the front runner. This leadership contest along with any Brexit related updates remain the key driver for GBP exchange rates so do keep on top of this if you’re following the Pound’s value due to an upcoming currency requirement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Growth data causes Investor Concern (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

The Australian Dollar has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The most significant catalyst for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the US/China trade war. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and due to this any slow down in growth in China will have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The Trump administration has placed significant tariffs on Chinese goods and China has retaliated with it’s own tariffs. The trade war is set to escalate and could be ongoing which does not bode well for the Aussie. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export to China and at present demand remains healthy which is good news for the Aussie, that is not to say this situation will last however.

Due to global economic uncertainty investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in favour of safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the US Dollar.

There are economic problems down under such as consumer spending and the cost of living in high wage growth areas such as Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates this month to 1.25% and there is the potential for further cuts.

The Australian economy is growing at its slowest rate in almost a decade, which has fuelled speculation surrounding how long Australia will sustain its run of over 27 years without a recession.

Despite the situation down under I believe the  problems in the UK outweigh that of those down under. We currently have no PM and are in complete Brexit limbo. If Boris gets in the probability of a no deal could increase as he will be using this scenario as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from Brussels. A no deal is the investors worst fear and has the potential to cause further woes for Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Will the RBA confirm when interest rates will be cut?

Pound improves against the Australian Dollar

The Pound has seen a small increase vs the Australian Dollar since the weekend after struggling recently.

Last week the latest jobs report highlighted a problem for the Australian economy.

The unemployment figures on the surface appeared to be relatively strong at 5.2% but this is still much lower than that in the US, the UK and also New Zealand.

The hidden figure is that of the under-utilisation rate, which measures the number of unemployed and underemployed as a percentage of the labour force.

This is showing concerns as the figures appear to be rising at the moment. The jobs rate does not demonstrate clearly those who are supplementing their income with second jobs.

This means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be coming under further pressure to consider bringing forward an interest rate cut.

The RBA are due to release their minutes from the latest meeting tomorrow so make sure you pay close attention to the rhetoric used and to discover their appetite for further rate cuts to be brought forward.

With the global economy showing signs of a slowdown I think it is simply a matter of time before the RBA cuts interest rates again and I think this is in part the reason for the Pound’s recent gains vs the Australian Dollar.

This is providing some good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds as the Pound  is still feeling the pressure of the Tory leadership election.

At the moment it appears as though the front runner is Boris Johnson and if he does manage to gain power then this could lead to a brief period of certainty for the British economy and this could give the Pound a boost vs the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound to Australian dollar forecast: Which currency will devalue more, sterling or the Australian dollar?

Over the last couple of months both sterling and the Australian dollar have devalued in value due to their own specific problems. In the UK the ongoing Brexit saga is a major concern and the chances of crashing out of the EU have increased dramatically. Down under interest rates have been cut due to falling inflation and an underperforming property market. For clients that are converting sterling and Australian dollars, it doesn’t look like the UK or Australia’s fortune is going to change anytime soon, therefore the question clients should now ask themselves is which currency will devalue more than the other in the months to come?

Today MPs within the Conservative party will vote on who they want to see as the next Prime Minister. By the end of the day if a candidate has failed to achieve 17 votes they will be eliminated from the race to become the next PM. At the moment Boris Johnson is the front runner and the bookies favourite, which increases the chances of crashing out of the EU, even though he has made it clear this is not his aim. Yesterday there was an important vote in Parliament and the cross party attempt to give the commons power to stop a future PM from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal was defeated. This essentially means come the end of October if the UK fail to reach an agreement with the EU, the UK will crash out by default.

Down under it looks like interest rates could be cut further throughout the year. Most forecasters are suggesting this could be by 0.5% by the end of the year. When the cuts materialise, short term this could cause a problem for the Australian dollar, but long term it may stimulate growth. When trying to second guess sterling to Australian dollar exchange rates, my personal view is that Brexit will have the final say on the future direction. If the UK manage to persuade the EU to make changes, I expect GBPAUD to increase towards 2, however if the UK crash out of the EU I expect GBPAUD to fall to the lower rates we have seen over the last couple of years which is 1.60.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars with sterling, I expect major fluctuations in the next months, therefore making a decision now seems wise. It’s a gamble either way! If you would like help achieving exchange rates, that you are unlikely to receive with your own high street bank feel free to email me directly and I will personally respond with the process drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Australian Dollar weakens as trade wars hit the headlines

The Australian Dollar can be impacted by global attitude to risk and news that Donald Trump and China are still locked in battle over their trade wars is not helping the value of the currency.

The G20 summit in Japan this weekend will be key for where this may head next, should the rift continue and both sides continue to throw more and more tariffs at each other then this could damage Australian Dollar exchange rates.

Chinese economic data has also had an impact on the Australian Dollar overnight, as inflation posted at a 15 month high last night. Poor economic data from China can have a negative impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to the strong trading ties and the number of exports from Australia to China. Should China start to struggle then you can tend to see a ripple effect onto the Australian economy so the markets tend to move in advance of this. Chinese Retail Sales figures are released on Friday so this will be one to watch.

In terms of Australian data, we have a few key releases this week with unemployment figures out tomorrow and investors and speculators alike will also be looking out for any hints or comments from members of the RBA as to their plans for what to do next with interest rates.

There are growing expectations that we may see an interest rate cut from the RBA in the near future, and this has the potential to result in the Australian Dollar losing a little ground.

My personal view is that I feel that the Australian Dollar may weaken a little in the coming weeks due to the various points above, so if you have Australian Dollars to buy then it may be one to watch very closely, if you have Australian Dollars to sell then it may be tempting to start considering making a move on soon. Of course with all the worldwide politics going on the market and opinions can change in an instant so it is key if you are in the position where you have an exchange to carry out that you have a proactive broker on your side, with various options on offer.

If you have a transaction to carry out and you would like our assistance then feel free to get in touch with me directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help you.

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will more disappointing data for the UK today result in further falls for the Pound?

It’s been a disappointing week for UK economic data releases so far, which has come at a bad time for the Pound as the currency is already trading at the lower end of it’s recent trading ranges. The Pound to Aussie Dollar pair in particular is trading in the early 1.80’s, and at the time of writing it’s trading at 1.8150 which is towards the lower levels of the day.

1.80 could act as a support level for the Pound, but those of our clients and readers monitoring the pair should be weary of potential further falls for the Pound as not only is the currency under pressure owing to political uncertainty, but economic data is now starting to disappoint which could cause further falls.

So far this week both manufacturing and construction data has shown a slowdown from the previous figures. At 9.30am this morning there will be the release of Services PMI which is arguably more important as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. I think a drop in these figures could result in a sharper sell-off than we’ve seen this week due to the importance of the sector to the UK economy.

Data aside, the leadership contest for the Conservative Party could be the next potential market mover, as the victor’s attitude to Brexit is likely to impact markets. Down under we have seen the Australian economy pick up slightly but there are still expectations of further interest rate cuts later this year after the recent cut, so this is a potential downside for the Aussie Dollar moving forward.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP to Australian Dollar Forecast – UK politics and Australian interest rates

The Pound fell by 5 cents against the Australian Dollar during last month after what has been a very uncertain time politically in the UK.

Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation and we are now in the midst of a leadership election within the Tory party.

The likelihood is that the battle for the next Prime Minister will continue until late July, which means more political uncertainty and this could cause ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates.

The other problem for the Pound is that the next Prime Minister will likely be more of a Brexiteer and this could increase the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Personally speaking I don’t think a no-deal Brexit will happen which means that we’re likely to have to extend the October deadline, have a second referendum or even potentially have another general election. All of these options care likely to cause problems for the Pound.

However, in the very near future the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announcing their latest monetary policy overnight. The strong likelihood is that we’ll see the central bank cut interest rates to their lowest level on record of just 1.25%.

If after the interest rate cut they announce that there could be further rate cuts coming then I think this could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars at the moment.

The Australian economy has been showing signs of problems recently with employment, economic growth and inflation so I think the RBA will signal that there are further rate cuts to be made but depending on the timelines offered this could cause a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates overnight.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of looking to convert Australian Dollars then pay close attention to the decision made as well as the RBA’s accompanying statement.

I have personally worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote then send me an email with an outline of your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

May’s future in doubt (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

Sterling has suffered of late due to the current situation on Brexit, Brexit being one of the key drivers on GBP/AUD. We recently saw a spike up to 1.88 following what was deemed to be positive news on Brexit. May’s talks with Corbyn over a deal that could be mutually acceptable from both Labour and the Conservatives caused the Spike. I believed the gains for Sterling would be short lived as I had little faith the talks between May and Corbyn would result in a deal that would pass through the House of Commons. This proved to be true.

I believe Sterling could be in for further losses as if Farage’s becomes the UK’s representative in the bloc, it would show a huge power shift away for m the usual top contenders, creating further political uncertainty. Many believe if he does prove to be  successful this could be the final nail in the coffin for May and she will be forced to step down, she has proved extremely resilient up to this point however.

May made a speech yesterday and she stated the House of Commons vote on her deal may now be delayed from the first week of June. This was not taken well and has seen her unpopularity grow. The thoughts in many of the voters minds is no doubt that if her deal fails to be passed she will resign.

I think the vote is destined to fail when it takes place, this may be already factored into GBP/AUD to some extent as the market moves on rumour as well as fact, but I think this could also cause the Pound to lose value. The usual market reaction if a leader of a Country steps down or is ousted is that the currency in question would weaken, however in this situation we could see the opposite as anew Tory party leader may be deemed to have a better a chance of sorting out this Brexit mess.

The Aussie has had it’s own trouble, Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s goods and services and any decline in Chinese growth will impact the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar. The escalation in the US/China trade war is causing investors to move away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD for safe haven investments.

There is also the probability of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month, so despite the potential for further Sterling gains it may be wise to move before the decision if you are selling the Aussie.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

Pound vs Australian Dollar rates improve after Theresa May’s speech

The Pound hit 1.86 against the Australian Dollar yesterday afternoon after what has been a very busy week so far for GBPAUD exchange rates.

The election over the weekend was won by the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison who will remain in power for a full term.

He originally replaced the previous leader back in August so a new full term has helped to settle the Australian economy.

This is turn helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound over the weekend but since then the Pound has fought back following Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday afternoon.

Theresa May has warned MPs that they have ‘one last chance’ to deliver Brexit and she is anxious to get this new deal backed in the House of Commons in early June.

However, although some amendments have been made I cannot see this deal getting accepted which will trigger her in to announcing her resignation timeline.

Theresa May has also suggested that it may even mean that Brexit could even be cancelled. The Prime Minister also hinted that a second referendum may be held if there is enough appetite in parliament for it to take place.

All this news has helped the Pound to recover against a number of different currencies and good news for anyone looking to exchange Pounds into Australian Dollars.

However, later this week we also have the European elections due and this could cause some uncertainty for the Pound so if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of this current spike.

If you would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident about saving you money as well as helping you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk