Category Archives: GBP to AUD

GBP/AUD Forecast – UK Autumn Budget Update (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates continue to float around 1.75 on the exchange, with the AUD finding plenty of support around this threshold.

With much of this week’s focus on yesterday’s UK Autumn budget, clients holding the AUD may have anticipated a negative market reaction to this and a drop in value for the Pound.

The result was almost a non-event for the currency markets and in truth the budget very rarely has a major impact on exchange rates.

Yesterday’s “safe” budget was always unlikely to throw up any major surprises. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond were already under severe pressure, both inside their own Conservative party and externally as well. The former is trying desperately to rally the country in the wake the on-going stagnant Brexit negotiations, whilst the latter was under the spotlight following the disastrous budget he delivered in March.

The key points delivered by Hammond, included Stamp Duty on all properties valued under £300,000 for first time buyers, higher road tax for diesel cars and an additional 2.8 bn for the NHS.

However, despite these claims economic growth forecasts for the UK were cut, which has been directly attributed to the on-going fall out from Brexit.

Fear over the UK’s economic standing following our eventual separation from the EU continue to drive market sentiment. With investor confidence minimal the Pound is struggling to make any significant inroads against the AUD.

The Australian economy is itself under the microscope somewhat. Rising property prices and an over reliance on their export of raw materials, is predicted to put pressure on the AUD over the coming months. =

Whilst the markets never move simply in one direction, I do not anticipate GBP/AUD to gain any sustainable momentum above 1.75. However, due to the issues mentioned above the Pound may well continue to find enough support above 1.70 as we head towards Christmas.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Aussie Dollar Boosted on Comments from RBA (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has found a small degree of support this week after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe made clear that the next interest rate move is more likely to be up rather than down. The last minutes from the RBA signalled that there is unlikely to be any interest rate increase for a very long time so which actually helped see the Aussie weaken. Although the Governor’s comments don’t fundamentally change that much the markets can take it as reassurance that there is likely to be a rate rise possibly next year and this is giving the Aussie a small boost.

GBP AUD exchange rates could see an interesting day and rest of the week on the back of the budget that will be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond today. The well broadcasted budget is likely to see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates depending on how well it is received. Considering the Chancellor’s failed budget earlier this year he is unlikely to make any drastic changes and his hands are tied regardless as a result of Brexit uncertainty. As such GBP AUD rates are more likely to be impacted by the ongoing Brexit negotiations unless of course the Chancellor makes an epic mistake in which case his position would almost certainly be in jeopardy.

The Brexit negotiations remain deadlocked although a cabinet meeting on Monday evening seems to have unlocked more funds to be offered to Brussels with the condition being applied that the door must open to a future trade agreement. The caveat offered by the British government that nothing is agreed until all is agreed would suggest the UK could if necessary withdraw any offer of a financial settlement it makes and this will inevitable keep the pressure on sterling for the foreseeable future

At the next EU summit the EU leaders will decide if talks will move forward to trade and this is where there is likely to be substantial movement for clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. The summit around the 15th December in my view should see new direction for GBP AUD. Clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch at this stage in the run up this event to look at the options available to take the risk out of the market place and top try and maximise on any substantial changes in exchange rates. Feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD exchange rates continue to rise?

Since the end of August the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar and exchange rates have increased by 13 cents (8%). To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer into Australian dollars would achieve our clients an additional 26,000 dollars. 

In recent weeks the commentary coming from the Reserve Bank of Australian is that interest rates will remain on hold at 1.5%. There is a strong correlation between the US and Australia. Currency speculators tend to trade between the two and in recent weeks the Federal Reserve have been hinting toward hiking interest rates in December therefore I expect Australian speculators have been selling off the Aussie and buying US dollars.

The pound has also been strengthening in recent months off the back of an interest rate hike in the UK and positive news coming from Brexit negotiations. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May has hinted that the UK and EU are close to securing a deal in regards to EU citizens rights and reports are emerging that the PM is close to offering £38 billion as a divorce settlement bill.

The EU have given the UK a deadline for this Friday for clear progression to be made. Once the statements are released by the UK and EU I expect to see major volatility. Positive news that trade negotiations will start in the upcoming weeks could see GBPAUD exchnage rates rise towards 1.80.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPAUD keep on rising?

The pound to Australia dollar rate has been moving higher on the back of the latest improving economic data for the UK and fresh fears over when the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will raise interest rates. We could see the Federal Reserve in the US raising rates which has been a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates. The strengthening of the US dollar has seen a weaker Australian dollar as they are closely linked.

Any weakening of the Australian dollar lately can be partly attributed to the scaling back of interest rate expectations for the Australian economy. Overall the predictions for the Australian economy had been very strong and this had seen the Aussie stronger. This has been scaled back recently with the Aussie weakening as the RBA scaled back their forecasts.

The US dollar is also a factor as it has been rising, it is looking more than likely that the US will raise their base rate which will see the US dollar stronger. As a higher yielding currency the Australian dollar has been very popular but now the US dollar is challenging its dominance. The market is now bracing itself for lower for longer Australian interest rates which is why the currency has weakened.

with sterling finding some support this trend could continue for longer, the conditions that have created it don’t appear quite ready to subside. For now it appears this market will favour Aussie buyers and any clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds might need some assistance with strategy.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars then please don’t hesitate to let us know so that we can monitor the market and update you on the latest strategies to be aware of in trying to maximise your transfer. If you wish for more information please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Best rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds in 6 months (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit its best rate to buy Australian Dollars since May this year as the antipodean currencies have weakened significantly during the last week of trading.

Australian employment figures are looking very strong and typically this would see help to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound but the RBA have suggested that they do not want to tamper with economic policy whilst the labour market is going well.

Indeed, some recent predictions are that we will not see an interest rate hike until earliest 2019 which is why we have seen GBPAUD exchange rates going in an upwards direction recently.

The Pound has reversed its losses from earlier on this month when it increased interest rates at the Bank of England’s meeting and I think we could see further gains ahead.

With the US Federal Reserve looking more and more likely to raise interest rates at next month’s meeting due to be held on December 13th, it appears as though global investors are moving money away from the riskier commodity based currencies which includes the NZD and AUD, which is another reason for the positive gains seen by the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release their latest set of minutes and I think we could see further weakness for the Australian Dollar if the minutes confirm that interest rates will be kept on hold for quite some time to come.

If you are in the process of selling Australian Dollars into Sterling but don’t have the full amount of funds available at the moment it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me with details of your requirement and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate hits a 5-month high, will the upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Those following the GBP/AUD rate will be aware of the positive moves for the Pound recently, and within the past 24 hours the rate has hit a 5-month high making it a good time for Sterling sellers.

The rate has traded within just 2 and a half cents of the best levels in the last year, so the questions are now being asked as to whether the pair can reach a new 1-year high.

Those with a currency requirement involving the pair should be aware that the Pound isn’t trading in such a strong fashion against many other major currency pairs, and that in my opinion there is potential for the Pound to fall for a number of reasons.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is currently under pressure as rumours build that there a a number of members of her party prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence regarding her position. Should this issue surface I would personally expect to see the Pound fall quite dramatically against the Aussie Dollar amongst other major currencies.

At the same time inflation hasn’t quite hit the high levels the Bank of England was expecting to see so the chances of future rate hikes have diminished somewhat, certainty regarding the short term future.

If you’re following the GBP/AUD rate and would like to be kept updated to any major swings in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Poor wage growth leads to Australian Dollar weakness despite better unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

This week has been a mixed one for the Australian Dollar so far, with a fairly week start and a flatter past 24 hours.

The reason the Australian Dollar lost strength earlier in the week was due to news of slower wage growth than expected.

Wage growth yesterday came out at 0.5% against analyst’s expectations of 0.7% which is the reason why we saw Australian Dollar weakness.

Wage growth is a really important release in the current climate, if wage growth ( the increase in how much people are earning)  is a lot lower than inflation (the increase in the costs of goods and services) then you can generally expect an economy to drop off a little, as people will have less money in their pocket to spend. Bad economic data can then in turn lead to weakness for a currency, and with markets moving well in advance of an event actually happening this is why we are seeing a good opportunity to buy Australian Dollars at present.

Unemployment figures came out today and despite the fact that they actually showed an improvement, the Australian Dollar failed to make any vast improvements against most major currencies.

The rest of the week is fairly quiet but do not be fooled into thinking that the Australian Dollar will remain flat, being perceived as one of the ‘riskier’ currencies there is always the chance of movement should global attitude to risk alter.

Should you be in the position that you need to buy or sell a large amount of Australian Dollars and you would like my help along with a better exchange rate than your bank or current broker then I would love to hear from you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you would like to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to explain how I can assist.

Australian wage growth disapoints

In the early hours of the morning Australia released their latest wage growth numbers for the last quarter, and the Australian dollar lost value as the numbers disappointed.  This release has the potential to now influence the next round of inflation and consumer spending which again could cause problems for clients holding onto Australian dollars.

The US have also released important data today in the form of Consumer Price index also known as inflation. The inflation numbers rose to 1.8% from 1.7% and I believe this is the last nail in the coffin and the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates on December 13th.

In recent years currency speculators appear to bounce between the Australian dollar and US dollar, as the Australian dollar returns high interest on investments and the US dollar is a safe haven currency.  If the Federal Reserve raise interest rates US and Australian interest rates will both be 1.5% and I therefore expect to see a major sell off of Australian dollars to buy US dollars.

Therefore clients buying the Australian dollars may receive improved rates in the months to come, where as Australian dollar sellers may wish to buy their currency sooner rather than later. 

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

GBP AUD Rates Slide on UK Brexit Uncertainty (James Lovick)

GBP AUD exchange rates have inched lower this week as ongoing British politics continue to weigh heavy on the pound. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to look at their options very quickly as developments over the next two weeks are likely to have a very big impact on the value of sterling rates.

UK Prime Minster Theresa May and the British government are feeling the pressure this week as it has been reported that forty conservative members are prepared to sign a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. It would only take another 8 signatures that would force a leadership challenge and this perceived risk of a potential change of leadership is piling on the uncertainty for the pound.

The recent ultimatum from the EU giving Britain just two weeks to cough up more money in the Brexit negotiations or face a no deal situation is yet another major concern for those clients holding pounds looking to buy Australian dollars.

Any deterioration in these negotiations will likely see the pound weaken further and sterling will very much depend on progress in the next couple of weeks. If for example there is no agreement on the divorce settlement and talks break down with no deal at all then in the short term the pound could come under sizeable pressure. This is a real risk and there is every chance that this least preferred option could become a reality for all sides involved.

Consumer confidence numbers from Westpac are released later which should give some clues as to the strength of the Australian consumer. Wage price data is released on Wednesday which could help see the dollar rally if the numbers arrive better than expected. The lack of action from the Reserve Bank of Australia though is only likely to prevent the dollar from strengthening too much. The decision to maintain rates at such low levels is keeping the dollar on the back foot.

Anyone selling Australian dollars could see some excellent opportunities in the next 10 days if Brexit starts to look messy which could provide a short window of opportunity. Please feel free to contact myself James at jll@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to take a look at your requirement and see how your transfer may be impacted by these economic and political changes.

Will GBPAUD break through 1.75 by the end of the year? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Economic data in recent weeks has meant that GBPAUD exchange rates have increased by 8 cents and broken through the 1.70 barrier. The reason for the improvement is positive news coming from the UK in regards to Brexit and a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Brexit negotiations are heating up and decisions are close to being made. Friday evening Michel Barnier gave a two week deadline for the UK to make key decisions surrounding EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the UK’s “divorce bill”.

The theory on the market is that if the UK and EU come to an agreement in the upcoming weeks and trade negotiations start before or just after the turn of the year, this could give sterling exchange rates a considerable boost.

The Reserve Bank of Australia have been given dovish statements of late and the recent RBA minutes last week confirmed that the RBA have no interest of raising interest rates anytime soon.

Couple this with Iron ore prices tumbling down under and some forecasters suggesting another substantial fall is on the horizon due to the slowdown in China’s construction industry you can understand why the Australian dollar is under pressure.

Looking further ahead if the Australian economy continues on the same path and the UK reach a deal with the EU so trade negotiations begin, I expect GBPAUD will break through 1.75.

Therefore if you are buying Australian dollars with sterling and are prepared to take the risk holding off may provide a better exchange rate in the weeks to come, however if you are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling now is the time to convert your currency.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.