Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes Tomorrow (Ben Fletcher)

In the early hours of tomorrow morning the RBA will reveal the minutes of their latest meeting. Whenever a central bank reveals the committee’s thoughts markets can always get excited. Several countries around the globe have started to raise interest rates and the recent strength for the Australian Dollar over the last 9 months suggest Australia may be the next to hike rates.

China which is one of the key influences on the Australian economy last week released positive date and installed further confidence that things are settled. In my opinion it would not surprise me if there is a downward movement in the GBP/AUD rate tomorrow morning and may present a good time for Aussie Dollar sellers. However come tomorrow afternoon the main influence will be Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The UK interest rate conundrum continues on and if Carney makes a hint towards a hike expect a major market movement. Tomorrow could see a good morning for the Aussie Dollar reaching a near month high followed by a return to nearly 1.70 on the GBP/AUD rate.

The end of the week may also bring AUD volatility as there will be a release of June’s unemployment figures. If these are positive expect Aussie Dollar strength, however as always anything negative or unexpected can shock the market.

When the markets are this volatile there will always be spikes and drops, making timing a transfer vital to maximise your funds. If you have any questions with my forecast above or would like to simply discuss an upcoming requirement you have please send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and I may be able to offer a viable solution to help you complete a trade, as I have several years experience working for a brokerage

Rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pound rises (Tom Holian)

The rates to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling has increased during Friday’s trading session after the US inflation data came out lower than expected.

It has already been an interesting week for GBPAUD exchange rates with interest rates having been a key topic in the UK, US and next week in Australia.

The Aussie Dollar is heavily affected by what happens in the US as it will influence global attitude to risk.

With the US posting lower than expected inflation levels this could suggest that an interest rate hike in the US may not be coming as soon as many expect and this has caused a sell off for the US Dollar in favour of the Pound which in turn has caused the Pound to rise against the Australian Dollar.

Next week on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their latest minutes from their interest rate decision held earlier this month.

The RBA were rather neutral in their stance as to what to do next so further evidence of this in my opinion could see Sterling challenge 1.70 levels against the Australian Dollar by the middle of next week.

If you’re intending making a large currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will next week bring further movement for the GBP/AUD pair? (Joseph Wright)

Next week there are a number of key data releases out of both the UK and Australia, which could result in a move away from the current exchange rates available.

The Pound has been weakening in recent weeks after some disappointing data releases in a number of sectors within the UK, which is why I think those following the Pounds value against the Aussie Dollar as well as other major currency pairs should be aware of next weeks releases.

An already under pressure Pound could be put under additional pressure in the early hours of Tuesday morning at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes. A bullish RBA could result in further gains for the Aussie Dollar against Sterling which could push the AUD/GBP pair above the key physiological level of 0.60.

Then at 9.30am on Tuesday morning there will be an inflation reading in the UK, which is a key reading at the moment as the rate of inflation within the UK is currently above the Bank of England’s current target of 2%. I expect a low reading to result in Sterling weakness as it will decrease the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the UK in the short term future.

The is also an Inflation Report Hearing next week within the UK which could impact Sterling exchange rates for the aforementioned reasons.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rise back above 1.70??

The expectation for GBPAUD exchange rate is rather mixed with the pound really struggling to make much headway following a tough week. Tuesday saw GBPAUD drop as members of the Bank of England confirmed they will not be so positive about raising interest rates. The overall belief the pound would rise if the Bank of England raise interest rates has been supporting the pound but this is now looking less likely. The Australian dollar has also been benefiting and rising because the US Federal Reserve have been slightly move dovish (soft) in their approach towards raising interest rates.

If you are buying Australian dollars with pounds there is a belief we could see 1.70 but I think it is more likely the GBPAUD rate will actually drift lower. This is because there are so many negative factors surrounding the pound and I believe market conditions are much more supportive for the Australian dollar to rise. This largely stems from the fact the Australian dollar is a commodity currency and will appreciate in value when investors seek a higher return.

If you need to buy Australian dollars with pounds the short term forecast is not looking so good. Trading conditions seem to favour sterling slipping, I mean just what would actually lead to the pound rising? Uncertainty over the Brexit and the UK economy indicates to me the pound will remain on the back foot. I also believe the Australian dollar will retain much of its strength in this current climate.

If you have a transfer to make then getting all the information available and tracking the latest trends is key to helping maximise your transfer. A 1 cent improvement on a £200,000 transfer buying Australian dollars could achieve you an extra 2000 Australian dollars!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. We are expecting some really interesting movements on the GBPAUD rates, of course it won’t be just downward, there will be spikes to take advantage but you need to be prepared! This is what we can help you to monitor and achieve.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates expected to worsen (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates were taking a clear hammering at the beginning of the week, and very little of it was due to events in Australia.

Events in the UK and globally have played well into the hands of anyone considering selling Australian Dollars to buy Sterling. Just since July 7th they have gained over 4 cents against Sterling with the global climate still pointing to further improvements.

Firstly, the concrete stuff. One of the backtracks on Sterling has come from a reversal in the enthusiasm for an interest rate hike in the UK in the short-term. Slightly lower inflation outlooks mean the pressure to raise rates in order to control prices has lessened, and on Tuesday two members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee confirmed this.

Therefore, without a medium term expectation of a rate hike, a key pillar of support for Sterling has been lost. Making it more likely for further gains for AUD sellers in the short-term.

The other helping hand for sellers came from the US.

Uncertainty surrounding the US Dollar causes capital flight to go elsewhere. Given the relatively high interest rate available in Australia, this can be a key beneficiary in these situations. As investors flee to the AUD, it’s value sees a parallel boost through demand.

The latest Trump scandal comes under that bracket. Could this be the smoking gun for the Trump Presidency? Markets were certainly concerned, the Dollar suffered from a mass sell-off of stocks in reaction to the news.

Whether this scandal will be swept under the rug or continue to undermine confidence in the US political apparatus is the unknown factor here.

However, this does point to renewed urgency for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer to buy Australian Dollars to ‘get their skates on’.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to speak with Joshua.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

 

Sterling Under Pressure Again! (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling is under pressure once again, with heavy losses against all of the major currencies.

The AUD has gained almost two cents at the high since yesterday, with the GBP/AUD dropping to 1.6746 at this morning’s low.

Brexit fears and comments from two Bank of England (BoE) members, seems to have sapped the minimal market confidence that Sterling had started to rebuild.

This drop is a prime example of why clients holding the Pound should be looking to protect their positions wherever possible, as a sustained increase in value is highly unlikely in my opinion.

It feels as if Brexit is starting to take a vice like grip on our economy, which is in turn having a detrimental effect on Sterling’s value.

Add to this the current state of limbo surrounding UK politics and uncertainty over what agreement is in place between the Tories and the DUP party and you can understand why investor confidence in the UK is low.

We also had two members of the BoE speaking yesterday, neither of which even mentioned a prospective interest rate hike in the UK.

Considering the Pound’s recent momentum had been built around comments made by BoE governor Mark Carney, who alluded to the fact the central bank could raise rates, the mixed messages are hardly likely to assist any upturn for the Pound.

Looking at the Australian economy and there is a concern amongst some quarters that the current housing bubble is set to burst, which could put pressure on the AUD moving forward.

Being a commodity based currency the AUD relies heavily on global growth remaining strong and whilst the current climate is pushing investors towards the AUD and its higher yielding interest rates, any slowdown in its export sector will hit the Australian economy hard and the AUD will almost certainly suffer as a result.

Therefore, I would be keen to take advantage of the current sell prices, which are extremely attractive when you consider the history on the pair.

This will remove any uncertainty from what has become a very unstable market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

Australian dollar overvalued? (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent times major central banks including the European central bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have been taking a hawkish approach and indicating that they could be raising interest rates in the near future. When a central bank raises interest rates we tend to see the currency strengthen as investors flock to the currency.

However the tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia was far from hawkish when they released their latest monetary policy decisions over a week ago. The National Australian Bank believe that the Australia dollar is overpriced at present and if the RBA gave a hawkish statement the dollar would be purchased further and therefore increase in value.

Looking further ahead the NAB believe the Federal reserve will continue to raise interest rates which will mean investment will leave the Australian dollar and strengthen the US dollar, and I have to agree with the predictions.

In relation to GBPAUD exchange rates I expect the Australian dollar to devalue slightly however the golden question is whether this will outweigh Brexit? I fear at any point Brexit negotiations could reach a stumbling block and therefore the pound would weaken dramatically.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

What factors could cause the Aussie Dollar to weaken? (Joseph Wright)

Last week the Pound found itself under pressure after a raft of bad data out of the UK has resulted in concerns in a slowing down of the UK economy.

Data showed slowdowns in the manufacturing, construction and importantly the services sector and although the readings were in line with previous readings when GDP is running at 0.4%, the economy is slowing as we enter the 3rd quarter which is a negative sign for those hoping the Pound will climb as the year progresses.

The Reserve Bank of Australia disappointed Aussie Dollar bulls and those hoping the Aussie Dollar will climb last week. Many had hoped for indications of future interest rate hikes from the RBA but these comments never came, with many analysts now confident of a rate hike this year.

The price of Iron Ore has firmed up recently offering AUD some support, but the mixed messages the markets are receiving regarding China’s economy (and whether or not the figures they release are 100% truthful) is likely to weigh on the Aussie Dollars value.

The issues surrounding the housing market overheating in parts of Australia is also likely to be a talking point, and it’s quick market movements that we can help our clients take advantage of in a number of different ways, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this in further detail.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar improves against the Pound following positive US data (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has seen a big fightback against the Pound during Friday afternoon’s trading session as the US Non-Farm Payroll data came out massively better than expected.

US non-farm payrolls measure the amount of new jobs created and the figure which was released showed a total of 222,000 compared to the expectation of 179,000. The US economy is going from strength to strength at the moment and this often has a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar.

As the world’s leading economy if the US shows positive signs this increases global attitude to risk and this frequently results in strength for the Australian Dollar vs the Pound.

Only yesterday morning GBPAUD exchange rates were touching 1.71 on the Interbank level before falling to 1.69 during late Friday afternoon’s trading session.

The Pound’s drop in value vs the Australian Dollar highlights how many problems the UK economy is facing and this was demonstrated with Friday morning’s UK Manufacturing data and Industrial Production data.

Both came out much lower than expected and this caused the Pound to drop against all major currencies following the announcement.

With the Brexit negotiations going on behind the scenes I cannot see the Pound making any real gains against the Australian Dollar unless we see the UK move towards a softer Brexit so in the short term I find it difficult to see how the Pound is going to improve.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currrencies.co.uk

 

Disappointing data this week results in the Pound weakening, is the UK economy slowing down? (Joseph Wright)

Throughout the week there has been a series of disappointing data releases out of the UK, along with data this morning from Halifax confirming that property prices within the UK have fallen by 1% with UK house price growth falling to a four-year low.

We found out earlier this morning that manufacturing production within the UK fell last month from the month before, whilst industrial production has also fallen on an annual basis.

The construction sector has also experienced a slowdown recently, and with the raft of bad data released this week it may leave many within the marketplace re-evaluating whether there is much of a chance of an interest rate hike this year.

Unicredit (a major Italian lender) this week forecasted a potential spike of up to 4% if there is a rate hike this year, although personally I cannot see this happening irrespective of the UK’s inflation levels and I think that the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate is more likely to fall between now and the end of the year.

There is talk of a slowdown in the Aussie economy also, but with the UK entering such a crucial time with Brexit negotiations I cannot see Australia’s issues overpowering those of the UK.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.