Australian Dollar on the Front Foot Heading Into 2020 After Overcoming USD Losses and 2019 Downtrend

The Australian Dollar had a rocky 2019, with three interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which left the rate sitting at 0.75%. However, the latter of the year appears to have turned positive for the currency. As the last day of the year approached, the AUD saw itself overcome the downtrend it was on and overturned the losses it experienced against the USD in 2019. The US-China deal is also due to be signed which lends the AUD more support as a currently weaker USD allows the AUD to edge in their exchange rate cross-over.

AUD Overturns 2019 USD losses

The Australian Dollar overturned its 2019 losses against the USD as the end of the year approached. The Aussie rose 1.3% against the USD last week and rose by 3.67% for the month of December. This allowed the AUD to chop its 2019 losses down to -0.59% ahead of the year-end. Economists are suggesting that the AUD is performing well, but still has some way to go to catch up to the Pound Sterling which gained 0.48% in the GBP/AUD exchange rate last week and is still up some 3.7% for the whole year.

Positive Economic Data Has Helped out the Australian Dollar

A recent stream of positive economic data has offered the Australian economy a helping hand to reach the finish line of the year. Most notably, the November jobs data which saw a fall in the unemployment rate across Australia and a creation of 39.9k new jobs for the month. With positive news coming from the economic front, the chances of an RBA rate cut for February are beginning to lessen. This is positive news for investors as a rate cut would see it drop to around 0.5% and the AUD would likely lose strength in the global market.

Us-China Deal Set to Be Signed, Aud Set to Rally on Completion of ‘Phase One’

Vice Premier Lui He is set to travel to Washington on Saturday in order to sign the ‘phase one’ deal between China and the US. Upon completion of the deal, the AUD will be poised t rally as it will benefit from an uplift in the Chinese economy as US tariffs are lifted on the country. The global economy will also benefit from this deal so investors around the world are keen to see the deal go through.

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Australian Dollar Receives Support From US-China Deal Signing Whilst Awaiting Manufacturing Data

AUD received further support this week from the US-China deal which is set to be signed soon by both parties. The deal looks like a completed one and when pen meets paper, the global economy looks poised to rise, of which AUD will surely benefit. However, some analysts are suggesting that the AUD is lacking drive as investors adjust to 2020 growth and trade outlooks. The RBA’s rate cut decisions for 2020 are still weighing heavy on the Aussie Dollar. Investors will be hoping for positive news from this Thursday’s upcoming manufacturing data PMIs.

AUD Hoping for the Signing Ceremony as Soon as Possible for the US-China Deal

For months the trade deal between the US and China has dominated headlines in the trading world, and rightly so as the global economy is likely to rise bringing with it many in the market like AUD who has close trade ties with China. Both US President Trump and Chinese officials have confirmed that a ‘Phase One’ deal has been agreed on and that the deal will be signed in due course. Investors are hoping that this signing process will happen sooner than later to start the New Year off in good stead.

Upcoming Manufacturing PMIs Will Determine AUD’s Next Directional Shift

There is little data to be released before the New Year arrives, which means that today is likely to be a slower day for the Aussie Dollar. But this Thursday will see the release of the Australian manufacturing PMIs for the month of December. Investors will be hoping that the figure will build upon the previous months number and boost AUD with a positive turnout. Should the figures beat projections, then AUD will likely rise and edge against its major rivals like GBP.

RBA Interest Rate Decision Weighs Heavy on AUD Going Forward

The RBA’s recent dovish stance has weighed heavy on AUD in recent weeks. With their final meeting of 2019 opening the door to further cuts in 2020, AUD fell accordingly. Investors will be hoping that Thursday’s manufacturing data will be positive enough to alleviate some tensions from the RBA’s potential cuts which have investors worried.

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Australian Dollar Looks to Finish the Year off Strong With Help From China

The Australian Dollar has surprised many over the festive period, with a sharp rise as the year comes to an end. Increases in both Aussie shares and gold prices have combined to see that the currency finishes the year strong. Optimism in the US-China trade deal has helped to boost the AUD as both parties agree a deal is to be signed shortly. Australia is set to benefit from the deal as one of China’s biggest trading partners.

Chinese Manufacturing Could Help AUD

The market is awaiting December’s Chinese manufacturing PMI which is set to be released later this week. Should the PMI show an uptick the China-sensitive AUD is likely to benefit. Last month’s Chinese industrial profits showed a smaller decline than was predicted with a -2.1% decline on the year, but the impact of this data was not enough to sway the Australian Dollar at all. Investors will be hoping for a greater resilience within the sector from this month’s data release. AUD may find further support from the Chinese economy as market risk appetite picked up sharply in the fourth quarter, to the benefit of Aussie exchange rates.

AUD Could Be Muted in 2020 by RBA Cut Decision

As AUD heads into the new year, many investors are still expecting to see a rate cut from the RBA. In recent meetings, the Reserve Bank of Australia began to shift towards a more dovish policy outlook. Economists are suggesting that as long as an interest rate cut from the RBA is plausible due to under performance of the economy, then AUD will likely be muted going into 2020, limiting potential gains going forward. Investors will be hoping that December’s finalised Australian manufacturing PMI sees an improvement in order to tip the scales in favour of AUD to finish the year.

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Economists Predict a Break AUD Whilst GBP Softens After Hectic Year

News for the upcoming week is suggesting that the Australian Dollar is primed for a break to a fresh 22-week high, but this momentum has been slowed mainly due to the fading liquidity. The uncertainties surrounding interest rates for the AUD in 2020 are still present and causing concern for some investors. Meanwhile, for the GBP, it has seen a softening after a rollercoaster year that has been dominated by the Brexit news and the General Election. With the GE over and an EU withdrawal plan being accepted in parliament, the GBP is beginning to settle down as its future becomes clearer to the markets.

AUD Looks to Break to 22-Week High but Uncertainties Keep Investors on Their Toes

AUD remained almost flat against the USD, settling at around 0.6920 which was almost unchanged from Monday’s closing rate. During the London trading hours, the AUD/USD rate was observed to be trading at a level of 0.6925 and 0.6911 versus the US Dollar. Despite positive trading, negative news has surrounded the AUD of late with a lower-than-expected economy growth of 0.4% in Q3 for 2019 hitting investors recently. Pair this with the annual GDP growth rate standing at 1.7% and poor labour market statistics, the economy has been painted in a dire light and has led the central bank (RBA) to slash interest rates to a record low of 0.75% where it currently stands to end the year.

Going into the new year, the uncertainties surrounding the RBA’s decision on interest rate cuts are the main talking point. Economists are suggesting that a further cut could occur by mid-2020. The RBA left the door open for another cut in their December meeting minutes and this has investors worried. Previously the RBA had downplayed the suggestions of another cut and suggested that the outlook looked positive for AUD. Since then they retracted this statement and stated that they will meet in February to reassess the economy in order to finalise their rate decisions.

GBP Settles Down After Brexit and GE Madness

For GBP, its traders will have taken a well-earned rest over Christmas and Boxing Day as the UK markets closed. The year has been full of twists and turns for the GBP. Brexit uncertainties scared off potential investors whilst a Conservative majority optimism was often the driver of positivity throughout the General Election that wrapped up a few weeks ago. Economists have suggested that the GBP is now softening against EUR and USD as the outlook for the UK economy clears up after months of confusion.

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Downbeat tone surrounds AUD outlook for 2020, whilst GBP builds on GDP data to head into new year

This year has seen lots of bumps in the roads for both the AUD and GBP. But there have also been highlights and many gains made. The outlook for 2020 has been forecasted for the AUD and many are not holding their breaths for anything spectacular. The consensus is that the economy is still under repair but looks to better itself in 2020 than the current year. Meanwhile, for the GBP, positive GDP data helped the UK recoup some of its losses as the figures were revised. The next governor of the Bank of England was also revealed which gave the GBP a boost as the elected figure is deemed to be a “safe pair of hands”.

Outlook for AUD Looks Uninspiring, but the Central Bank Remains Optimistic

Forecasts for the upcoming year have begun to be predicted for the AUD. After a rocky year and a few interest rate cuts from the RBA, the AUD’s outlook looks bleak. Many economists are suggesting that the Aussie economy is under repair and needs some TLC before it can get back into winning ways. This TLC is likely to arrive from the RBA and fiscal policies. Despite this, some including the RBA themselves are remaining positive that the economy will pick up in 2020. The RBA have suggested that economic growth is expected to be around 2.75% in 2020 with a rise to around 3% in 2021. This is positive news for investors should this be the case, as the scenario appears to be that 2020 will build upon 2019 but will not be anything outstanding.

GBP Rallies on Positive GDP Data Revisions

For the GBP, it starts the week on a high after recouping losses following upbeat figures as growth was revised up from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3. A rise in growth figures paves the way for further growth going into 2020 and this helped give the GBP a boost. Added to this, the new governor of the Bank of England was announced, Andrew Bailey will be the next governor and with this news support was given to the GBP as he was regarded ‘a safe pair of hands’. The latter end of last week also saw Boris Johnsons EU withdrawal bill easily pass through parliament but investors still remain cautious of a no-deal Brexit so this did little to stir up the Pound.

The UK market is set to close on Christmas and Boxing day and a lack of notable data will mean that the week ahead will likely be uneventful, limiting volatility.

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Positive News for Australian Shares Before Christmas Day

Reports from Wall Street are suggesting that a rally on the international market could be set to buoy Australian shares. Economists are tipping the shares to open in the positive ahead of Christmas. With an opening of around 10-15 points, the futures market looks positive for those with Aussie shares.

Economists Tip a Futures Market Opening to Start Christmas Week

Shane Oliver, Capital’s chief economist, reported on Sunday that he expects the futures market to open up at around 10-15 points today. He also mentioned that the rally is likely to follow that of the US and Europe which will be at around 0.2-0.3%.

His claim for a positive start to this week is based off the lead-in from Wall Street and Europe which he described as positive. This will be welcome news to those invested in Australian stocks as last week saw them end on a softer note with the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished up trading on Friday at 16.8 points or 0.25% lower at 6,816.3 points, with the broader All Ordinaries slipping 16.5 points or 0.24% to 6,926.1 points.

Strong Week Ahead as AUD Stocks Look to Build from Futures Market and US-China Deal

Mr Oliver stated that the most likely scenario is that a modest gain is observed going into this week. Despite the fall in the Aussie market at the end of last week, the US market rallied as did the European market.

He also noted that the ‘phase one’ agreement between the US and China was a positive occurrence for the China-sensitive AUD which should filter in positivity into the market. Investors have become frustrated recently as details from the deal have yet to surface, leaving investors in the dark about what has been agreed upon.

However, the market is hoping that details will be released in the upcoming week, should this be the case then the AUD will be set to benefit as China receives a boost to their economy.

With there being two public holidays in this week as the festive period arrives, it is likely to be a quiet week on the trading front. But economists are suggesting that a “Santa Clause” rally in the market will hopefully give a final boost to the economy as the year draws to a close and wraps up on New Year’s Day.

For more pound and AUD news, keep up to date with our daily blogs. Alternatively, if you have a currency requirement you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me directly at

Australian Dollar Rises as Employment Data Pleases RBA but Westpac Tips a 2020 Slowdown

Thursday saw the release of the employment data in Australia for the month of November. The figures were a shock fall in unemployment and as a result AUD rose. With the positive jobs data, some have suggested that this should take a load off the back of the RBA who have been edging towards a rate cut in early 2020. However, Westpac has now tipped investors to sell AUD as it eyes up a potential slowdown in 2020.

Jobs Data Performs, Brings up AUD with It

Yesterday was a positive day for the Australian Dollar, with a blowout jobs report being set on the table. The report showed that Australia’s economy had created 39.9k new jobs in November. This was a shock as the market had been anticipating a lesser increase of around 14.5k. This number was enough to drive the unemployment rate back down to 5.2% from the previous month of October’s 5.3%. Economists have welcomed this news with open arms as it may help ease concerns over a material slowdown to the labour market. But they also suggested that the RBA is aiming to see this figure drop to around 4.5% to provide more confidence that inflation will meet their target.

Performing Labour Market Has Been on the RBA’s Radar for the Future of Aussie Inflation

Economists have also taken note of Thursday’s data as the RBA previously flagged the labour market as one of the more important drivers in its stance on interest rates due to the effect that rising and falling employment figures can have on both wage growth and inflation statistics. The RBA has made three cash rate cuts in 2019 to attempt to lift the Aussie inflation to around the 2-3% target band. This has left the rate at 0.75%. Markets are betting that the RBA will likely cut rates again before April 2020 but with the RBA claiming that it may ‘sit on its hands’ before doing anything more and let the impact of the three previous cuts run their course first.

Westpac Tips Investors to Sell AUD

Whilst the AUD appears to be benefiting from the jobs data, Westpac have urged investors that the AUD is a sell. Representatives from Westpac have stated that the RBA is heading into 2020 with an over-optimistic view on Australia’s prospects. They highlighted the Q3 GDP report and partial data as key weaknesses to the AUD’s performance in 2019 and have stated that they expect the RBA to cut its rate down to 0.5% in early 2020 with a potential further cut down to 0.25% towards the end of the year. This has prompted Westpac to urge their clients to sell AUD/USD should the rate make its way back up to the 0.6950 level. This has left investors in the AUD a little uneasy as the RBA evidenced that this may be the case in their December policy meeting.

If you are in the process of buying or selling Australian dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly, Tom Holian, I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Stalls as a Seven-Year Low in Manufacturing Is Announced in the UK

With the Election news starting to take the backseat after stealing the limelight for the past couple of weeks, the UK was anticipating the release of the manufacturing PMIs. The figures were not pleasing and showed a new seven-and-a-half-year low, the news plummeted the GBP on Monday. Meanwhile, AUD has been left flat as further details on the ‘phase one’ deal between the US and China has yet to be divulged upon, leaving traders frustrated.

GBP Sees a Decline Following Poor PMI Data

GBP was enjoying its place back up amongst the top performing currencies after the news that Boris Johnson and his Conservative party managed to secure a majority government last Thursday in the General Election. The news was what the market had hoped for and with the announcement the GBP sharply rose in the trading market, bolstering its strength. But on Monday this success was dampened as the manufacturing data for the UK in the final quarter was released. According to the data, the UK was on course to contract in Q4. Experts have spoken about the observed figures and suggested that the biggest shock was the worst output performance since 2012, with purchasing dropping and service companies feeling the effects of price rises in food and fuel.

The Australian Dollar Remains Flat Following a Lack of Details from the US-China Deal

For AUD, the news that the US and China had struck a ‘Phase One’ deal was positive all around. The global economy had been boosted and the China-sensitive AUD rose with the news that the Chinese economy would be set to benefit from the lift in US tariffs. However, traders have become frustrated as further details from the supposed ‘totally done’ deal. The lack of information has caused the AUD to stall. Strategists have noted that with the deal being struck there is a huge sense of relief concerning the trade deal, but there will be a ‘second phase’ to come which may be difficult and cause strain once more.

Looking ahead for the GBP, today will see the release of the UK employment and wage growth data. If this data is poor, then the Sterling will slump against AUD. Meanwhile, traders of AUD will be hoping for further details of the ‘phase one’ deal which could buoy the currency. If a date for the deal to be signed is announced, then AUD could be set to gain strength, edging up against GBP.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars please contact me, James at

GBP Edges over AUD as Conservative Majority Pulls Through Election

The GBP reached new highs this week following the outcome of the General Election. With a Tory win in the bag, the UK now has its future decided and the market is given an insight into how the economy may be shaping up in the coming months and years. For the AUD, disappointing data saw the currency’s confidence decline.

GBP Rises Following a Win for the Conservatives

The General Election which took place on Thursday saw the triumph of the Conservative party. Its leader Boris Johnson has received the vote of confidence in taking the country through Brexit, with the market backing him. Investors were looking for clarity from the election win, with the Tories in power the path was clear-cut. They had feared that should Labour make a surprising comeback; the future of the UK’s economy would once again be unclear and lead to more uncertainty. This has previously held the GBP back since Brexit was voted upon. But as the winner was announced, the GBP rose up and secured itself amongst the highest performing currencies across the world.

AUD Rallies on US-China Progress but Could Be Held Back by RBA Minutes

AUD rallied last week following the news that the US and China had agreed a deal after months of deliberation. With this deal being made and US tariffs on China being cancelled the global economy felt an uplift which had a knock-on effect to the China-sensitive AUD. However, the RBA could sabotage these gains this week. Tuesday will see the RBA’s meeting minutes released. The AUD could slide against the GBP should the tone be dovish from the RBA. If the RBA focuses on the downside risks to the economy, it is likely this will be the outcome. Later in to the week the AUD could edge up against the GBP should employment figures improves on the previous month.

GBP Could Slide Despite Election Outcome Following Bank of England (BoE) Meeting

The BoE is set to meet on Thursday to discuss their monetary policy rates. The pairing of the GBP/AUD could slide following the decision which is agreed upon in this meeting. Despite the banks decision looking likely to leave the interest rate untouched, there is a chance that BoE governor Mark Carney could focus on the headwinds to the British economy and in doing so this could cause the GBP/AUD exchange rate to slide.

If you would like to learn more about current GBP/AUD exchange rate and future events that may influence them, you can get in touch on +44 (0)1494 416 503 to discuss these factors in more detail or contact me directly at

GBP/AUD Rate Falls Following Suggestion That Hung Parliament Could Be at Risk from Election Polls

For the GBP, the start of Wednesday was not a promising one. Recent polls have been released to give an oversight of the current standings for the upcoming election. One particular trusted poll highlighted that there is a risk of a ‘hung parliament’ at the UK’s election later today. The GBP/AUD exchange rate now stands at around 1.92 at the time of writing.

Risk of Hung Parliament Causes Panic for the Investors of GBP

With the results from the trusted poll (YouGov) pointing towards a potential risk of a hung parliament, the strength of the GBP declined. A hung parliament refers to no single party holding a majority of seats. As a result of this, despite a government still being able to be formed, the likelihood of Brexit becoming finalised is decreased.

Markets are concerned that should a hung parliament occur that the UK may miss yet another Brexit deadline (31st January 2020). If this is the case, the UK could run the risk of exiting the EU without a deal or a “No Deal” or once more having to ask Brussels for a further extension. With the risk of all or any of the above, the Sterling sunk as uncertainty has once again got the better of the GBP.

House Prices Rise for Australia but Consumer Confidence Falls

For the AUD, it will likely welcome the slide from the GBP in the interlinking exchange rates between the two. With mixed data being released for Australia this week, positive news broke that house prices rose by 2.4% in the third quarter, from July to September. This figure was above forecasts and NAB’s business conditions index increased by 2 points in November to a figure of 4. However, everything isn’t bright for the AUD as the release of Westpac’s consumer confidence index fell to minus 1.9% this month, which was less than November’s 4.5%. This figure set alarm bells ringing that Australia’s economy is still not home and dry and that potential risks are still there for the future of the country’s economy.

For the rest of the week, the major player will be the UK’s general election which takes place today. The outcome will likely be announced early Friday morning. The outcome of this election is likely to shake things up for both the GBP and its rival currencies. Investors will be hoping for a Tory majority, but with YouGov polls suggesting a hung parliament may be on the cards, the answer is certainly not clear as to who will come out triumphant.

If you are in the process of buying or selling Australian dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly, Tom Holian, I look forward to hearing from you.