GBP AUD Before RBA Minutes (James Lovick)

This evening sees the Reserve Bank of Australia produce the latest set of minutes from the last meeting where interest rates were held steady. The dollar could see some gains if the economic outlook is upbeat from the central bank. The recent rally in commodity prices namely from oil and gold should also in theory lend further support to the Aussie. This is one of the reasons that GBP AUD has slipped from its recent highs of 1.76+ over the last week. The agreed cut in oil production is only going to exacerbate the position and the commodity currencies which includes the Australian dollar are likely toperform better after an uncertain run in recent weeks.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds may wish to consider taking advantage of what are still attractive levels despite the dollar gaining a couple of cents in these last two weeks. Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see some further room in the dollar’s recent rally.

For those clients with a GBP AUD requirement, tomorrow sees UK Consumer Price Index inflation numbers which could see a considerable market reaction. The Bank of England have recently pushed up their inflation outlook whilst cutting the growth outlook as of last week. A strong number tomorrow morning could see further support for sterling exchange rates as the numbers would effectively complement the Bank of England’s view. UK unemployment data is released on Wednesday which should provide for another interesting release as to how well the British economy is performing.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates see slight dip to end the week (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates have dipped away from their recent 7 month highs thanks to some lacklustre economic and wage growth forecasts for the UK economy.

The Bank of England downgraded UK growth forecasts down to 1.9% for the year, below the magic 2% mark, and made concerning noises about future interest rate rises being delayed.

The UK defying market expectations from the shock of the Brexit is one feature that has been propping up the Pound’s value. Whenever the dent is put in this picture the Pound is likely to suffer.

Unfortunately this has been coupled with a stronger Australian Dollar. A byproduct of a weakening US Dollar in the face of Donald Trump’s latest scandal which we do not need to go into detail on.

For now, the key point for anyone with an Australian Dollar interest is that, given there is little expected news this week, this dominant narrative of a dented Pound and an Australian Dollar benefitting from lost investor interest in the US Dollar should continue.

Later on this month, based on trends from the 2015 election, the upcoming 2017 election will begin to change the market trend.

Anyone who has the time to wait for UK election polling to begin to influence Sterling’s value as we get within throwing distance of polling day, should contact me to discuss a strategy on how to approach the vote to secure any targetted peaks and ensure you are better protected from any downside risk.

Otherwise, I strongly recommend contacting me on Monday if your time period means you need to secure an exchange rate before May 20th.

I have never had an issue securing more commercial exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere due to the multiple counterparties I buy through. Contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk while markets are closed for a short discussion concerning your personal situation.

Will the Pound recover its losses against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has ended the week with two consecutive days of falls vs the Australian Dollar after a difficult day of UK economic data on Thursday.

The Quarterly Inflation Report showed that inflation is predicted to hit 2.8% with average earnings hitting just 2%. Therefore, this means that the cost of living is rising whilst wages are falling.

This led to the Pound falling against the Australian Dollar after making consistent gains for a number of weeks. Indeed, compared to a month ago when rates were struggling to break past 1.60 we have now seen GBPAUD rates trade as high as 1.77 during the course of this week.

However, it appears at least for the moment that the positive run for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has now come to an end.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release their latest minutes from their previous meeting.

With the central bank having kept interest rates on hold for the 9th consecutive month recently I think we could see a small weakening for the Aussie Dollar vs the Pound if the RBA confirm that there is little appetite for any change in interest rates.

During this month with the Tories set to dominate the general election I think this could result in further stability for the UK which in turn could help the Pound challenge towards 1.80 to buy Australian Dollars.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since for almost 15 years for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank  but also help you with various options including forward contracts which allow you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

To find out more information or a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Inflation a worry for Sterling (Daniel Johnson)

Snap Election causes pound strength

We have seen Sterling make considerable gains against the Australian Dollar of late. One of the main catalysts was Theresa May’s announcement that an election is to be held on 8th June. Historically a snap election has weakened the currency in  question, however on this occasion the opposite occurred. It was a shrewd move from the PM to call for an election while the opposition is so weak. The conservatives are some distance in front in the polls and are highly likely to win the election. A conservative victory is considered to be the safe bet for the UK economy, this caused a boost in investor confidence and in turn the pound. The market moves on rumour as well as fact and I am of the opinion a conservative victory is already factored into current GBP/AUD levels.

Iron Ore price causes Australian Dollar to fall in value

Another cause for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the drop in price of Iron ore. Iron ore is Australia’s largest raw material export. The price in iron ore has fallen considerably and is having a significant effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. Australia are heavily dependent on the Chinese and Chinese growth is dwindling, which is hurting the Aussie. Keep a close eye on Iron ore prices if you have a requirement involving the Australian Dollar as this could have significant bearing on your return.

Inflation a big concern for the pound

Yesterday, we saw inflation data released in the UK. There has been a rise in inflation, usually this would be deemed as positive for the economy but in this instance it is worrying. The rise in inflation is caused by the weak value of the pound. Retailers are paying more for their imported products and are now shifting the increase in price on to consumers. Wage growth is not keeping up with inflation so this could warrant consumers to stop spending. I stated this could be a problem in blogs months earlier, keep an eye on inflation levels moving forward as this could be a major stumbling block for the pound.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are welcome to speak to me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you  come to buy your currency. A minor improvement in a rate of exchange can make a considerable difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Was today a blip for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

For the first time recently Sterling has fallen against the Australian Dollar as the positive movement for the Pound seems to have been halted in its tracks. This has provided Australian Dollar sellers with a respite and a good opportunity compared to the last few days.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold earlier today which came as no surprise but the central bank has announced a cut in the growth forecast.

The Quarterly Inflation Report suggested that inflation would hit 2.8% whilst average earnings would hit 2% and this caused investors to sell off Sterling which has led to a 2 cent drop from the high to low between the Pound and the Australian Dollar.

We end the week with some Chinese data overnight and arguably more importantly US inflation data tomorrow afternoon.

With the US economy having been struggling with growth recently it will be interesting to see what happens with with tomorrow’s release. In recent weeks the negative data in the US has shown problems for commodity based currencies and this is why we have seen such a large movement in Sterling’s favour vs the Australian Dollar.

The other reason for Sterling’s gains over the last month is that things are looking more politically stable in the UK with the Conservatives appearing to be unchallenged at the moment. The stability of having another term of the same government has helped to strengthen the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Although today the Pound has fallen vs the Australian Dollar I think we could see the Pound challenge 1.80 at some point in the run up to next month’s election.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like further information or free quote when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Australian Dollar finding life tough as risk sentiment decreases (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar lose ground against numerous currencies over the past week or so as we have experienced a slight sell off in the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

Investors are finding life tricky at present, with the goings on in America and various economies reporting fairly bad figures of late, it does seem that we are seeing an unwinding of carry trades along with a general sell off, leading to Australian Dollar weakness.

Carry trading is a process whereby an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate and then shifts that money over to a currency with a very high interest rate, making their return on the difference. As you start to see the Australian Dollar weaken off you also get this gather momentum as investors reverse or unwind these positions to protect themselves from adverse movement and losing the profit they have built up.

We have very little left to come out in terms of economic data from Australia for the rest of the trading week but for those looking to carry out an exchange involving GBP you should be aware that today the U.K has what has been touted as ‘Super Thursday’ where they will have the release of Industrial and Manufacturing production, trade balance, the Bank of England interest rate, inflation report and growth estimates so be prepared for some fairly volatile exchange rate movements as the day progresses.

If you have any Australian Dollars to buy or indeed sell then it is well worth getting in touch with us here at Australian Dollar Forecast. Not only to we aim to provide up to date market information but we also all work for on of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the U.K. Even if you are based in Australia we can still help you too, and we pride ourselves on being able to better the prices of all of our competitors, along with offering a high level of customer service too.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) if you would like to get a quote to compare with your current brokerage, or indeed your bank and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I  will be in touch as soon as I can.

Why is the Australian Dollar weakening against the Pound, and will it continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is trading at it’s 2017 high against multiple major currencies at the moment, with the Pound to Australian Dollar sitting at an 8-month high making the conversion of Pounds into Aussie Dollars a much more attractive proposition than it was for much of last year (after the Brexit vote).

The Pound has been slowly climbing since UK PM, Theresa May announced a snap election in June, and as the conservatives gain a more favourable position within the polls we’re seeing the value of sterling continue to climb.

At the same time the commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar have been struggling, as commodity prices have tumbled recently which is likely to have a knock on effect to the Aussie Dollars value as the Australian economy is negatively impacted as a result.

Just last week the price of Oil, Iron Ore and Copper all fell by 7% along with Gold which fell by 3%.

Tomorrow is likely to be a busy day for the GBP/AUD pair as a number of key data releases are due out. UK Interest Rates will be announced along with Inflation data and UK GDP, so there could be some major moves tomorrow. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated regarding these releases.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rates hit 1.80? Best rates in 8 months to buy Aussie dollars with pounds!

The overall impression for GBPAUD rates is now much more positive with sterling rising and the Australian dollar on the back foot following a series of releases which have unsettled investors attitudes to the Aussie. The general impression for the markets is that GBPAUD rates could now rise higher as the trends that have contributed to the rise from 1.59 to 1.76 continue further. I would not be ruling out rates of 1.80 in the coming weeks, it appears clients looking to sell AUD for sterling should be making plans around what could be a very volatile and choppy period.

Let us look at the situation from the perspective of clients buying Australian dollars, the rates are very good. We are at the very best rates we have seen since September of last year. The pound has been on the very weak side at the risk of falling further owing to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit. On a £200,000 transfer between the highs and lows you are today looking at an extra 33,000 AUD compared to the lower points. With the market appearing to favour if not further sterling strength then a much stronger and supported pound the general impression is that clients selling AUD to buy pounds will suffer.

Sterling could struggle in the run-up to the UK election but will for sure strengthen once Theresa May is confirmed Prime Minister. The overall viewpoint stemming from the previous elections is the pound weakens before and rise after. However this time it is a little different since the result is largely expected and will therefore be priced in to the value of sterling.

All in all I would be very concerned if I was selling Aussie dollars to buy pounds as it looks like the market has now shifted and to claw back and see rates that were on offer not so long ago come back we will need to see a big change in sentiment and the market forecasts. If you have a transfer to make then this week is vital as we have the latest news from the Bank of England which is likely to create some volatility on the market.

If you are considering any transfer involving buying or selling the pound and Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is sensible to avoid any potential surprises in the market. For more information and assistance in achieving the best rates in the market please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBP/AUD Rates Hit 1.80? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have moved through 1.76, with the Pound continuing to find market support this week.

With the 1.75 resistance barrier now broken, clients will be questioning whether the current run will carry the Pound up to, or even through 1.80?

Whilst there is no doubt that Sterling has gained a foothold, much will depend on how the media portray Brexit negotiations over the coming days and weeks. On Australia’s side, the current focus surrounds the slump in iron ore prices, Australia’s largest export.

Investors will be looking at the current slump with some concern, with prices tumbling from $90 highs in February, to just over $60 per tonne. This was put down to recent oversupply but with China’s (Australia’s main purchaser of iron ore) economy clouded in mystery, there are many variables to consider and the AUD has lost investor confidence as a result.

Whilst the current malaise is likely to restrict any major advancements for the AUD, I still feel that investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound, is fragile at best.

The Pound initially found support following the announcement of a UK general election in June and the likely result of a Conservative victory, bringing an element of stability to the markets due to the continuity it will bring over the coming years. However, this positive spike did cool somewhat and based on some worrying reports recently regarding the UK’s Brexit negotiations and how tough they are likely to be, are you prepared to risk losing the gains made for Sterling over the past month?

My overall feeling has been that clients holding the Pound should be looking for short-term market opportunities, rather than hold out for long-term sustainable gains whilst so much uncertainty around the UK economy remains.

For this reason, I would be looking to take advantage of the current rates and not gamble on what is likely to be a very rocky road ahead for the UK economy, whilst investors will always remain somewhat cautious when it comes to commodity based currencies such as the AUD, when the global markets remain fragile.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

Pound v Australian dollar update (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last 4 weeks the pound has made a 10 cent gain against the Australian dollar which means a 200,000 Australian dollar purchase is now £7,500 cheaper compared to this time last month.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement to hold a snap election on June 8th has attributed to the pound gaining momentum, as the market believe the Conservative party will win a majority which in turn helps the PMs cause when negotiating Brexit with EU officials.

The Australian dollar has had a tough time in recent weeks as Chinese economy data has been far from positive which has a direct impact on the Australian dollar. This has forced the Reserve Bank of Australian to continue with low interest rates for the time being again leading to further Australian dollar weakness.

Looking ahead I don’t think Australian dollar buyers are going to continue to have it all their way. Past history tells us when a country has an election in the run up to that election (regardless if one party looks like a clear winner) the currency tends to devalue. Therefore Australian dollar buyers should continue to watch the market but be in the position ready to trade as I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fall in the weeks to come.

If you are trading GBPAUD this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 Monday morning and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **