Tag Archives: AUD forecast

AUD Forecast – UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson Speaking Today (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained flat overnight, as the markets turn their attention towards today’s speech by UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

The speech is expected to outline the governments vision to untie both the Leave & Remain camps and whilst it has been sanctioned by No 10, Boris has a tendency to deliver the unexpected.

The speech is likely to have strong undertone but it is no secret of Boris’s political ambition and any indication of a fractured government, or disjointed approach to the Brexit talks, could put pressure back on the Pound.

In truth, Sterling has held its positions against the AUD better than it has against many other major currencies, with GBP/AUD rates continuing to float around 1.77.

Commodity based currencies such as the AUD are often considered riskier currencies for investors. This means that at time of global prosperity when investor confidence is high, funds will be moved away from the safer haven currencies such as the USD or CHF and into these potentially higher yielding ones.

Whilst there is no direct correlation to the currency markets, last week’s downturn in the global stock markets has seemingly sapped investors risk appetite and as such this is likely to put pressure on commodity based currencies such as the AUD.

Whilst there are many external factors to consider, this is one of the reasons why the AUD is struggling to make much of an impact against GBP, despite the currency uncertainty engulfing the UK economy.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/AUD remains at 1.77 after RBA opts to hold interest rates (Joseph Wright)

The Reserve Bank of Australia last night chose to keep interest rates unchanged, which was the expected outcome from economists leaving the currency markets unchanged at 1.5%.

This was the first chance the RBA had to make a change this year, and the base rate has remained at 1.5% for around a year and a half now. Many central banks have opted to hike interest rates in recent months, and should this continue it will result in the Australian interest rates being uncompetitive and therefore AUD weakness in my opinion.

Last year AUD benefited from offering one of the highest interest rates in the developed world. Investors are keen to hold funds in a high yielding currency but should AUD lose its competitive edge, it’s likely that money will be taken out of the Aussie Dollar and we’ll see it fall.

Politics also have the potential to move the GBP/AUD pair, especially at the moment as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is in London to discuss the UK’s plans and proposals for Brexit this week.

Those following the Pounds value should be aware of this and the potential it has to impact GBP exchange rates should any key comments be made, and do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major rate spike.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What factors are likely to impact the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate? (Joseph Wright)

Despite the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate improving recently in line with the Pounds good performance in general, there are some analysts expecting to see the Aussie Dollar gain in the months to come.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) follow in the footsteps of the US and begin raising interest rates like many expect them to, I think we can expect to see the Aussie Dollar strengthen so those hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should be aware of this.

In the current market conditions the markets are usually aware of any upcoming rates changes and it’s usual to see the change being priced into the value of the currency in the weeks and months leading up to the actual change.

Those following the GBP to AUD exchange rate should be weary of this as any allusions from the RBA could result in immediate changes in the exchange rate which currently sits around the 1.75 mark.

From the UK’s perspective the Brexit is likely to continue to drive the value of the Pound as markets the outcome of Brexit negotiations. A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Theresa May recently came out and said that there is yet to be a transitional agreement made despite reports from some sources suggesting there was.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a short term price change for the Pound, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPAUD breaks through 1.75 (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last three months GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 1/2 cents which has given clients that are buying or selling Australian dollars opportunity. At present GBPAUD has broken through 1.75 and I expect the pound could continue to make further inroads against the Australian dollar.

This week Iron ore prices have showed a slight decline and today Iron Ore is 0.8% down. The Australian economy relies heavily on Iron Ore and Australian dollar exchange rates have a direct correlation. Many forecasters are split to whether Iron ore  over time will rise or fall. Ultimately it all comes down to how much China buy throughout the year. For many years forecasters have suggested a slowdown for China is on the cards but they continue to produce the economic numbers.

Tomorrow morning the UK release key economic data releases in the form of average earning and unemployment rate. Unemployment remains at record lows which is fantastic for UK exchange rates, even though 0 hour contracts are included within these figures. However the average earnings numbers are the concern for the UK. Inflation is outpacing average earning and the UK public are feeling it. If this trend continues further pressure will put on the Bank of England and a change in monetary policy could occur.

Longer term Brexit negotiations will drive the price of GBPAUD. I personally believe that the UK will come to an agreement with the EU therefore a sustained period of 1.80 towards the end the year could be on the cards.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

 

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate break out of its current trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar buying rate is continuing to hover around the 1.73 mark at the mid-market level.

Whilst there have been some short term moves away from this level the pairs movements have been relatively tame for the last few weeks, which is quite a change considering how the pair has moved over the past couple of years.

Since the Brexit vote and the fall in the Pounds value due to the shock of the referendum outcome, the pair have remained range-bound between 1.5950 and 1.7950. With the pair currently trading quite comfortably above 1.70 I think it’s fair to say that the Pound is closer to the top end of its 18-month trend as opposed to the bottom, and those planning on converting Pounds into Aussie Dollars should consider this.

Sentiment surround the Australian economy has been buoyed today after Australian Consumer Confidence figures came out better than expected in the early hours of this morning.

This is the best level since the end of 2013 and if economic data releases and gauges down under continue to impress we could see the Aussie strengthen and push the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.70.

If you’re following the pair and would like to be kept updated should there be a big move for the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate jumps on smooth Brexit hopes, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has spiked in value this afternoon across the board of major currency pairs, after this time the Brexit related news is positive.

Many may have expected to see the Brexit talks begin to have less of an impact on the Pounds day to day value, but it appears to be heating up as UK and EU officials prepare for Brexit trade negotiations and time to invoke Article 50 runs out.

The good news for the Pound today can be attributed to reports of the Netherlands and Spain is apparently open to a softer Brexit deal for Britain, which is of course welcome news to those hoping for a stronger Pound.

Those following the Pound should be aware that it’s trading at an 18-month high against the US Dollar.

Moving forward the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is likely to continue to be driven by sentiment surrounding the Brexit and how the UK economy will perform during and after the transition.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price changes between the pair discussed today, do feel free to get in touch and register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBP/AUD break out of its current trading range? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has remained in the early 1.70’s for a few weeks now, with Sterling sellers basing the best trades off of mid-market levels of 1.73.

Since spiking up to just under 1.80 the GBP/AUD pair has corrected and I think that trade levels just over 1.70 are a fairer value for the pair, so it will be interesting to see whether any data or news will have the capacity to push the pair out of the current range.

Sterling has been boosted in recent days as UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet in order to create one that better reflects the society that she serves. There haven’t been any major shocks and the main members such as Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson and David Davies have kept their high profile positions.

The next step for Brexit negotiations will be trade talks, of course an important stage which may have a big impact on the Pounds value so it will certainly be worth following the talks. The transitional deal and how the UK is expected to perform during and after this period is likely to impact Sterling exchange rates.

The UK economy overperformed last year when we consider the forecasts from the majority of financial institutions, and I think if the UK puts in another strong performance we can expect to see the Pound push over 1.80 at some stage during the year.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar predictions

Over the last 4 weeks the Australian dollar has been making gains against sterling which is fantastic news for any client that is holding onto Australian dollars and purchasing sterling. A month ago GBPAUD reached the late 1.70s off the back of the positive news that trade negotiations can begin between the UK and EU.

However in recent weeks the Reserve Bank of Australia have announced that an interest rate hike could actually occur sooner rather than later which is a big surprise as it was only a month ago the RBA warned that an interest rate hike was unlikely to occur throughout 2018.

Many of the leading banks throughout Australia are mixed to whether a hike is likely and therefore the future trends for the Australian dollar exchange rates. For example Commonwealth Bank and UBS are optimistic however Morgan Stanley and Westpac are talking it down. Personally I believe the RBA wont want to be left to far behind the US and they may follow to suit when the US hike, therefore I would keep an eye on US interest rate decisions.

Commodity prices will also be the key driver this year for the Australian dollar which is no surprise. Again Commonwealth Bank and UBS are optimistic that Iron Ore will continue to increase where as Morgan Stanley and Westpac believe a major slowdown is on the horizon for China, which will therefore mean demand for iron ore will drop, consequently having a detrimental impact on the Australian economy and dollar. Its very difficult to predict however with growth forecasts for China suggesting a slowdown is on the horizon, I tend to lead towards Morgan Stanley and Westpac’s predictions.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling climbs slightly as political reshuffle springs no surprises (Joseph Wright)

Sterling sellers have seen a boost to the exchange rates available to them today, after the Pound is up across the board of major currency pairs even if only slightly.

This comes on a day that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet, with most moves being predictable according to political analysts.

Brexit related news is of course likely to continue to be one of the main drivers of Sterling price movements, although there are reports that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is beginning to fade. Sterling volatility is expected to wane in the short term future after a market gauge that measures expected volatility was trading at a three-year low earlier today, which means that analysts aren’t expecting to see any market swings in the upcoming months for Sterling exchange rates.

Since the Brexit GBP/AUD has lost quite a lot of value, but the pair are currently trading towards the top end of the recent trend despite GBP losing some value recently as the Aussie Dollar strengthened.

Market predictors are one thing, but I personally wouldn’t rule out a big move in either direction for GBP to AUD exchange rates in the event of a major breakthrough or stumbling block being made public in regards to the second round of Brexit negotiations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.