Tag Archives: AUD forecast

AUD Forecast – AUD Fights Back After Recent Losses (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling came under pressure against the AUD yesterday, following the release of the latest UK inflation data.

GBP/AUD rates have fallen back towards 1.82, a dip of almost 4 cents from last week’s high.

Inflation fell to 2.5%, which was under the markets predicted market figure of 2.7%. Whilst this could be viewed as a positive in the sense that it is creeping back towards the government’s target level of 2%, it has also dampened expectations of a prospective interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE).

This potential rate hike had most likely  been factored in to Sterling’s value, at least to some extent by investors, as such yesterday’s data has dampened the markets expectation and as investors have sold off their Sterling positions.

Looking at the AUD and it had started to find support against the Pound around 1.85, with the realignment welcomed by any clients looking to sell AUD.

One of the main reasons the AUD has struggled of late, is due to pressure on the global markets. Generally, when there is an upturn in global growth currencies such as the AUD will prosper as investors look towards riskier assets, with generally higher interest returns. When the global markets are under pressure, investors will move their funds away from these currencies and back into safer havens such as the USD or CHF.

President Donald Trump’s recent trade tariffs are  putting a huge strain on commodity based currencies such as the AUD, which is why clients holding AUD may wish to take advantage of the current spike and remove any market risk.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What can we expect in the future from GBPAUD exchange rates?

GBPAUD exchange rates have been improving lately reaching some of the best rates to buy Australian dollars with pounds since the Referendum in June 2016. This is very good news for any clients looking to make an international transfer in the future as the last few months have generally been difficult for the pound. The good news may well continue further but with plenty of potential for the pound to struggle clients buying Australian dollars with pounds should I believe be thinking very carefully about what they are aiming for.

The Australian dollar has weakened as a consequence of a much stronger US dollar which is seeing investors transfer their holdings in Australian dollars through to the US dollar. With higher base interest rates than Australia the US dollar has become a much more attractive currency to hold and the previous arguments for holding onto the Australian dollar diminish.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is likely to be very much on course to be raising interest rates down the line but with the UK and also the US likely to be raising interest rates before the RBA, the prospect for the Aussie to weaken further seems high. Expectations for the GBPAUD rate are in my opinion that it will rise further so if you are looking for any transfers in the future and wish for updates on what is likely to happen, please contact myself, Jonathan Watson, directly.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information and thank you for getting in touch.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate trading at annual high, will the pair now climb higher? (Joseph Wright)

The exchange rate for changing Pounds into Aussie Dollars has traded within half-a-cent from its annual high today, as the almost hit 1.85 again during today’s trading session.

As many of our regular readers will be aware, sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved quite considerably recently after roughly a month ago the UK and EU Brexit negotiators came to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. This was a topic that limited the Pound’s value prior tot he agreement, as there were concerns that there would be a Hard Brexit which most likely would’ve resulted in a weaker Pound due to the shock to the UK economy.

Now that there is likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month, sentiment is improving as the UK economy is showing signs of picking up, even if the Brexit has slowed the economy somewhat.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb from its current levels as I think AUD will continue to lose value throughout the year. Now that the Fed Reserve has begun hiking interest rates in the US, AUD is likely to lose some of its attractiveness as it will no longer be offering one of the highest interest rates within the developed world. At the same time trade tensions between the US and China are likely to limit upside for AUD in my opinion.

There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates to 1.75% at the end of this year, although up until this stage the RBA has been skeptical due to the overheating property market down under, particularly on the East coast. With the RBA being weary of the effects this could have on the Australian economy, I think they will leave it late before making an amendment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will GBPAUD rates rise or fall in April?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has been improving overnight as the Australian dollar suffers regarding some slightly worse than expected Chinese economic data. The Aussie has been on the backfoot in recent weeks as investors lose faith in the currency and find better returns elsewhere.

If you have a transfer to make in the future buying Australian dollars then the outlook is looking better as the expectation for the Aussie is that it will continue to weaken in the future. Markets are bracing themselves for a continuing deterioration of the Australian dollar as the US dollar becomes a more attractive currency to hold.

US interest rates rate have been rising which is making it very attractive to hold, investors would rather hold the US dollar than the Aussie at the moment as it is seen as a safer and less risky currency to hold. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are in a process of holding off making any decisions on interest rates which has seen the currency weaker. The UK too are in a process of raising interest rates which is leading to much-improved levels for the pound.

Essentially the pound and the US dollar are being made to be more attractive to hold than the Australian dollar which has seen the GBPAUD rates rising. They may well improve further in the future, we will have to wait and see exactly what happens with various factors globally, not just concerns in the UK and Australia.

If you have a transfer to make in the future understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key to getting the best rates of exchange. Part of our service is to assist clients with the timing and execution of any currency exchanges, please contact me personally if there is anything you wish to run through or discuss in the future.

Thank you for reading and please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss further.

GBP/AUD – Is there the chance for further gains for the Pound? (Daniel Johnson)

Are we now witnessing new Buoyancy levels on GBP/AUD?

Sterling has advanced considerably against the Aussie of late due to several contributing factors. UK retail sales was impressive, figures sat at – 0.2% and were predicted to land at 0.4%. They came in at 0.8%. We also saw UK average wage growth move closer to parity with inflation which is a  sign of a very healthy economy.

There was already the strong possibility of an interest  rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE), but these date means it is almost a certainty.

It has also been confirmed the UK will have access to the single market during the Brexit transitional period  which will relieve a great number of UK firms.

On the back of this GBP/AUD went as high as 1.85, but quickly retracted. I am of the opinion this will be a new resistance point on GBP/AUD so if you are an AUD buyer and you have to move short term I would consider moving in the 1.84s.

The Aussie is losing its attraction to it’s investors due to the US now offering higher returns and future rate hikes. I am of the opinion the hike by the Federal Reserve however are already factored into current levels.

Be sure to keep an eye on Australia’s primary export, Iron Ore. china is the main purchaser and the current trade war with the US could well influence AUD value.

If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

AUD Forecast – Brexit Developments Putting Pressure on the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has come under some pressure this week despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) optimistic outlook, following the release of their monthly minutes overnight.

The AUD has lost ground against its Sterling counterpart this week, with the Pound hitting 1.8266 at its high today.

The AUD was finding plenty of protection around 1.80 but now this threshold has been broken, the key question is whether the AUD is likely to fall further.

Looking at the catalyst behind the current trend and there is no doubt that the current loses against Sterling are the result of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.

Reports yesterday confirmed that a Brexit transition deal has all but been reached and this boosted investor confidence in the UK economy, which was to the detriment of the AUD.

Despite the initial positive reaction it seems as though investor confidence cooled, with some key issues still to be resolved. These include the Northern Irish border, which has proved a red herring up until now. Unless an agreement is reached over this, it is likely that we will see further negative reports surface, which in turn could put some pressure back on the Pound.

The AUD found some support today, following the RBA’s minutes released overnight. As has been the recent rhetoric, the RBA remained bullish in their global outlook and also internally regarding the prospects of the Australian economy.

Despite this bullish outlook, the AUD is fighting something of an uphill battle with the global markets under pressure at present. This in turn is causing investors to sell off riskier assets such as the AUD, instead choosing to move into safer haven currencies such as the CHF or USD.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Predictions of a higher GBP/AUD rate mount as Brexit transitional deal hopes grow (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate climbed during today’s trading session, with the pair now trading almost at the very top of the current trend.

The mid-market level for the pair hasn’t breached 1.80 in some time but the pair are currently trading in the 1.78’s, meaning that for those planning on making a GBP to AUD transfer are looking at attractive levels considering recent trading levels. I would add that the lower end of the trend is 1.60 so hopefully you can see my reasoning as to why the current levels are around the top of the market.

There are hopes that the Pound will climb further, and this week the Brexit Secretary, David Davis said that the UK ‘can live with’ a shorter transitional period which has boosted the Pound’s value along with the likelihood of UK interest rates climbing sooner than many had expected.

Analysts at Lloyd’s Bank have recently upgraded their forecasts for the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate this year. They had previously expected to see the pair trade at 1.72 at the inter-bank level although the changing tones from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia has changed their minds, with them upgrading their views on the Pound’s potential.

There isn’t any major economic data coming out of the UK or Australia this week, so I expect the pair to be driven by politics for the remainder of the week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

AUD Forecast – AUD Benefits From Poor US Wage Growth Report (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has found some welcome support over the past few days, making gains against a host of the major currencies.

GBP/AUD have moved back below 1.77, whilst the AUD found support against both the EUR & USD.

This positive spike can most likely be attributed to the weak US wage growth report, which cast doubt over whether the US Fed would raise interest rates at their next policy meeting on March 21st.

Up until his report the US economy had seemingly been on a constant upward curve, which h meant investors started to factor in multiple interest rate hikes this year. On top of this President Donald Trump’s current ‘trade wars’, where is he looking to heavily tax any imported steel or aluminium products, has also put pressure on the USD, which in turn has helped to boost the AUD.

With investors moving their funds away from the USD over the past couple of days, the AUD has been one of the main benefactors, with hoping to take advantage of higher yielding interest and greater profit.

However, this trend may not last should the FED decide to hike rates later this month, so it may be prudent to take advantage of the current spike, for any clients with upcoming AUD currency exchanges to execute.

Looking at GBP/AUD rates and the AUD has found plenty of support around the current levels. However, despite this week’s improvements it has yet to make a substantial move back towards 1.75.

With Brexit concerns still handicapping any major advances for the Pound, it is likely GBP/AUD rates will continue to remain fairly range bound over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

The Aussie remains in the familiar ranges, what will move GBPAUD this week?

The pound to Australian dollar has been largely range bound in the last few weeks as fail to receive any new news which would trigger movement outside of the current levels. The GBPAUD rate range in the last month has been just 3 cents which whilst important is not a particularly big move for this pair.

In times of changing fortunes on the currency markets we can expect GBPAUD rates to fluctuate perhaps 5-10 cents in a busy period as the market adjusts to new news. There are many different factors which drive changes on the Aussie, including not only Australian data but also attitudes to risk in the currency markets.

As a ‘commodity currency’ the Aussie will rise and fall according to the outlook on the global economy. As a ‘higher yielding’ currency the AUD will often rise as investors park their cash there to benefit from the higher interest rates. This is in part evidenced by the news of late on the US dollar which has been rising, as the US dollar rises we have seen the Aussie weakening. Investors are shifting funds around to take stock of the changing interest rates between the currencies.

The key Australian data is focused around a speech from Governor Bullock tomorrow who is the Assistant Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia). This could see the pound to Australian dollar rate volatile although it is unlikely we will learn much new information. The RBA rate statement from last week failed to speak much movement, it didn’t tell us anything particularly new about the potential, or lack of any Australian interest rate changes.

There is some important news from the USA this week which could change attitudes to the Aussie, but all in all we might not see GBPAUD break from the recent ranges. For me, next week is looking a bit more interesting with the latest EU Summit where Brexit will be discussed, plus we have the latest US interest rate decision.

GBPAUD and the Aussie look to remain fairly range bound for now but this could quickly change. Using this quieter time to make plans for future developments is I believe a very smart move. For many clients buying AUD with pounds we are looking to trade GBPAUD above 1.80, for the sellers, many are targeting 1 AUD = 0.6 GBP.

If you have a transfer to make and are interested to secure your currency at the best rates with the most up to date information, please feel free to contact me to discuss further. To discuss further the market and your options please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.