Tag Archives: AUD weakness

FED and EU Summit to drive GBPAUD exchagne rates

This week, events that are not directly involved with Australia and the United Kingdom will dictate GBPAUD exchange rates. 

The Federal Reserve which is the United States central bank, will release there latest interest rate decision Wednesday evening. Speculators are predicting that the FED will raise interest rates from 1.25% to 1.5% which will match the Australian interest rate. Regular readers will be aware that there is a direct correlation between the commodity currencies and the US dollar. As the US dollar is a safe haven and the commodity in some ways is a risk, I expect to see the Australian dollar sold off and the US dollar to be purchased.

The EU summit on the 14th and 15th December, should outline more detail about the Brexit negotiations. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced in recent weeks that Brexit negotiations are going well and therefore the UK and EU have agreed to start stage 2 negotiations. If the EU reiterate Theresa May I expect this could provide a further boost for sterling.

Therefore it looks like the Australian dollar could devalue Wednesday evening and the pound could have a finish to the week, therefore my forecast is for GBPAUD to break 1.80 by the close of play on Friday. If you have Australian dollars to sell and need to buy sterling I would recommend getting in touch as soon as possible.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound to Aussie Dollar hovers around a 18-month highs, will the Pound hold on to its recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has managed so far to hold onto its recent gains against the Aussie Dollar, despite stalls to Brexit negotiations hitting the headlines over the past week.

There has been hopes of a agreed Brexit bill announcement this week, which would likely push the Pound higher but the there sticking point of Northern Ireland’s terms and its border is proving to be a stumbling block at the moment.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May has come under pressure for her dealings with her EU counterparts this week after many had expected to see the Brexit bill agreed, only to be disappointed to discover the Northern Irish border issue throw a spanner in the works.

Once the Brexit bill has been agreed the path is cleared for Brexit trade negotiations to begin between the UK and the remaining EU members, which I expect to be a positive for the UK and therefore the Pound. I also think that should a transitional deal be agreed we can expect to see the Pound climb also.

On a negative note for the Pound, should there be further stalls regarding any deals I think the Pound could see a sharp sell-off across the board as the UK is running out of time to make progress at the negotiating table.

If you would like to be updated in the wake of a short term price change between the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Pound spikes to a 1-year high after Brexit Bill breakthrough! (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has spiked in the early hours of this morning, hitting a new 1-year high against the Aussie Dollar as the Pound gains across the board of major currency pairs.

The reason for the spike is due to the much speculated Brexit Bill figure apparently being agreed between UK and European counterparts, with the figure reportedly being around £50bn. The cost is to cover accrued European debts and liabilities over the past 44 years of EU membership, and despite being such a high figure the market reaction has been a boost to Sterling’s value.

The market belief is that this Brexit Bill agreement is now likely to pave the way for trade negotiations to begin between the UK and the EU, therefore reducing the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit or Hard Brexit as many have labelled it.

With regards to the GBP to AUD rate, I would now expect to see the rate hit 1.80 as opposed to 1.70 next as should Brexit negotiations progress I expect to see the Pound continue to climb as confidence returns to the markets.

Economic data out of the UK is quiet for the remainder of the week, which means the GBP/AUD pair may continue to be driven by sentiment which favours the Pound after this latest Brexit update.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Australian dollar is much weaker and could get even weaker! GBPAUD and EURAUD forecast

The Australian dollar is much weaker overall as concerns grow over the strength of the Chinese economy and also other currencies become more favourable to hold. The expectation is that for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia there will be no interest rate rise any time soon and this will see the currency weaker.

The Australia dollar is a beneficiary of improved global confidence particularly in China. China is a major economy and the strength of the Australian dollar is widely attributable to the strength and weakness of the Chinese economy. Overall impressions for the future centre around a weaker Chinese economy as evidenced by the concerns over the stock market in China which has a large public following

Concerns about the possibly negative outlook on the Chinese economy has troubled the market and this has seen Aussie weaker as a wider reflection of stability in the region.

With sterling finding much favour as the UK government makes gentle progress on Brexit and the Euro also finding form on the back of progress with German coalition talks, GBPAUD and EURAUD have both risen hitting 1.7556 and 1.5697 on the interbank rates. This is presenting excellent fresh opportunities on both currency pairs which should be monitored very closely for potential buyers.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars, global events are increasingly driving the Aussie exchange rates, as opposed to domestic news in the Australian economy. Trying to anticipate and monitor the current outlook is no easy feat but it does seem like for now the Aussie will remain weaker.

Longer term trends could easily see the Aussie regain back these losses but for Aussie holders this could prove an expensive gamble. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate hits a 5-month high, will the upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Those following the GBP/AUD rate will be aware of the positive moves for the Pound recently, and within the past 24 hours the rate has hit a 5-month high making it a good time for Sterling sellers.

The rate has traded within just 2 and a half cents of the best levels in the last year, so the questions are now being asked as to whether the pair can reach a new 1-year high.

Those with a currency requirement involving the pair should be aware that the Pound isn’t trading in such a strong fashion against many other major currency pairs, and that in my opinion there is potential for the Pound to fall for a number of reasons.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is currently under pressure as rumours build that there a a number of members of her party prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence regarding her position. Should this issue surface I would personally expect to see the Pound fall quite dramatically against the Aussie Dollar amongst other major currencies.

At the same time inflation hasn’t quite hit the high levels the Bank of England was expecting to see so the chances of future rate hikes have diminished somewhat, certainty regarding the short term future.

If you’re following the GBP/AUD rate and would like to be kept updated to any major swings in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian wage growth disapoints

In the early hours of the morning Australia released their latest wage growth numbers for the last quarter, and the Australian dollar lost value as the numbers disappointed.  This release has the potential to now influence the next round of inflation and consumer spending which again could cause problems for clients holding onto Australian dollars.

The US have also released important data today in the form of Consumer Price index also known as inflation. The inflation numbers rose to 1.8% from 1.7% and I believe this is the last nail in the coffin and the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates on December 13th.

In recent years currency speculators appear to bounce between the Australian dollar and US dollar, as the Australian dollar returns high interest on investments and the US dollar is a safe haven currency.  If the Federal Reserve raise interest rates US and Australian interest rates will both be 1.5% and I therefore expect to see a major sell off of Australian dollars to buy US dollars.

Therefore clients buying the Australian dollars may receive improved rates in the months to come, where as Australian dollar sellers may wish to buy their currency sooner rather than later. 

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

Will GBPAUD break through 1.75 by the end of the year? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Economic data in recent weeks has meant that GBPAUD exchange rates have increased by 8 cents and broken through the 1.70 barrier. The reason for the improvement is positive news coming from the UK in regards to Brexit and a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Brexit negotiations are heating up and decisions are close to being made. Friday evening Michel Barnier gave a two week deadline for the UK to make key decisions surrounding EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the UK’s “divorce bill”.

The theory on the market is that if the UK and EU come to an agreement in the upcoming weeks and trade negotiations start before or just after the turn of the year, this could give sterling exchange rates a considerable boost.

The Reserve Bank of Australia have been given dovish statements of late and the recent RBA minutes last week confirmed that the RBA have no interest of raising interest rates anytime soon.

Couple this with Iron ore prices tumbling down under and some forecasters suggesting another substantial fall is on the horizon due to the slowdown in China’s construction industry you can understand why the Australian dollar is under pressure.

Looking further ahead if the Australian economy continues on the same path and the UK reach a deal with the EU so trade negotiations begin, I expect GBPAUD will break through 1.75.

Therefore if you are buying Australian dollars with sterling and are prepared to take the risk holding off may provide a better exchange rate in the weeks to come, however if you are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling now is the time to convert your currency.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.

Will GBPAUD keep rising?

GBPAUD has broken through fresh highs touching the best rates since May to buy Australian dollars with pounds. This is presenting an excellent opportunity that could shift dramatically in the next 24 hours as the UK sees its latest UK interest rate decision. The decision tomorrow is going to be the biggest short term driver on GBPAUD rates and any clients looking to buy or sell should be preparing for movement.

The rates have been rising as the pound strengthens on the back of expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow. The Aussie dollar too has been weaker on the basis of a much longer time before the Reserve Bank of Australia raise their interest rate. Investors had previously been anticipating the interest rates would be hiked sooner by the RBA, perhaps in 2018.

This has seen the Australian dollar weaker as investors who had previously taken up positions believing the Aussie will strengthen now seek higher returns elsewhere. The Australian economy is one of the worlds strongest having remained fairly immune from the concerns and fears that have blighted other global leaders.

The outlook remains positive for the Australian dollar which could well see the currency stronger for longer, overall I would not be looking for a much weaker AUD longer term, I therefore feel if you need to buy Australian dollars with pounds, that locking in something on this spike is very sensible. Otherwise tomorrow’s UK Bank of England decision is the key news for the pound that would see rates changing.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars making plans around crucial events is key. I would expect the GBPAUD rate could rise as high as 1.75 but drop as low as 1.68 if the Bank of England fail to meet with expectations.

If there is anything you wish to run through or discuss please don’t hesitate to let me know by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will the Pound to Australian Dollar rate manage to hold its ground above 1.70? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen against most currency pairs today, making the converting of Pounds into other foreign currencies such as the Aussie Dollar a less attractive prospect.

Since breaking back above 1.70 against the Aussie Dollar, which has been a key psychological level for GBP/AUD since the Brexit vote the Pound has managed to hold its ground above it despite some negative data coming out the UK today.

Sterling has been helped regarding the GBP/AUD pair by Aussie Dollar weakness, as some particularly poor retail sales figures from down under recently spooked the markets.

Today it was also retail sales figures that disappointed but this time it was the UK’s retail sales figures.

With Brexit talks forever in the financial headlines at the moment putting pressure on the Pound, along with disappointing data out of Australia recently it may be a battle of which currency is the weakest that determines where GBP/AUD goes next.

There are no more major economic data releases out of the UK this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment. With all that’s going on in the UK politically at the moment I there can always be a news release that swings GBP exchange rates, and if you wish to be updated if there are any big moves it’s certainly worth registering your interest with me.

Next week there will be releases that could impact the GBP/AUD rate further, so it’s worth getting in touch before the weekend if you wish to plan around any key times.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian inflation and UK GDP push GBPAUD above 1.70

GBPAUD exchange rates have strengthened by 3 and 1/2 cents today off the back of Australian and UK economic data  releases. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer at the high of the day compared to the low would have achieved our clients an additional 7,000 Australian dollars.

In the early hours of the morning Australia released their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. Forecasters were predicting 2% however the inflation numbers disappointing and fell to 1.8%, leading to a sell off of the Australian dollar. The reason for the Australian dollar being heavily sold off is because now inflation has fallen the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to give dovish statements in regards to interest rates.

Later in the morning the third revision of UK GDP was released. GDP exceeded expectation and was released at 0.4% from 0.3%. This doesn’t seem much, however it shows growth and something that many economists have not foreseen. The pound strengthened dramatically against all of the major currencies as this data release could be the final nail in the coffin and the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates on November 2nd.

For clients buying Australian dollars using sterling, central levels have now broken through 1.70 and for many clients this has been there target over the last 6 months. People need to remember that central levels were in the 1.50s not long ago. For clients trading short term, you need to decide whether to cash in now or wait for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.