Tag Archives: AUD

Brexit chaos continues as Conservative MP’s trigger a vote of no confidence in PM May, will this put pressure on GBP/AUD?

This morning it’s been announced that a vote of no-confidence has been triggered by the Conservative Party after Sir Graham Brady, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee confirmed that he has received at least 48 letters of no-confidence from Conservative MP’s.

The Chairman of the 1922 Committee isn’t required to announce how many letters he’s received but we do know that it’s at least 48 as this number constitutes 15% of the Tory members. Since the news broke the Pound has actually remained unchanged and this is probably because the vote will take place this evening between 6.00 pm and 8.00 pm so until shortly afterwards we won’t know the outcome and therefore, the next steps for Brexit.

Since the announcement which was around 7.45 am this morning, there have been a number of Conservative MP’s that have outlined their plans to support May, with the general consensus that a change in leadership this far into the Brexit process would be chaotic. If there are a number of votes against against her though, there is a chance she may resign even if she’s not obliged to owing to the lack of support from her own political party.

May has already given a speech outside Downing Street this morning whereby she’s highlighted that if she’s replaced a new leader would have to delay Brexit, as they wouldn’t have enough time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.

With regards to the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate I would expect to see the next potential market movement to come after the vote this evening, with the result expected to be released shortly after the vote.

AUD exchange rates have been influenced over the past week and a half by the concerns that the US-China trade war tensions could resurface, as China is Australia’s main trading partner. Those of our readers planning a GBP/AUD trade should follow this matter as it’s the main driver of AUD value at the moment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit Impact papers push Sterling lower against the Australian Dollar

After a strong start to the trading session yesterday, Sterling exchange rates have seen their fortunes reverse since yesterday afternoon when Brexit Impact papers were released by both the Government as well as the Bank of England.

Both releases suggested that the UK will be worse off by carrying out the Brexit with the BoE outlining a number of worse case scenarios for the UK economy in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Their report outlined the potential for the Pound to lose 25% of its value against both the Euro and the US Dollar which would put Sterling below parity vs both of these key currencies. Property market falls of 30% were also contained within this worst case scenario Brexit report as well as unemployment potentially rising to 7.5% and since this report we’ve seen a sell-off of the Pound’s value which has accelerated this morning.

After almost reaching 1.77 yesterday we’ve seen the pair drop below 1.75 this morning which goes to show how much the currency has been impacted by these reports. It’s also worth noting that the Australian Dollar has lost value recently owing to the sharp drop in the value of iron ore which is a key export of the Australia’s. Iron ore prices have dropped by 9% this week which represents the largest drop in over a year. The rhetoric between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders has also ramped up with concerns of a global slowdown owing to the trade war once again impacting currencies such as AUD’s.

Economic data releases are light for the remainder of the week between the UK and Australia so it’s likely that Brexit talks will remain the main driver of currency fluctuations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD drops after May’s Brexit deal looks unlikely to get the support she needs

The Pound is down across the board of major currency pairs today, in most cases by over 1% at least with the GBP/AUD rate down by over 1.6% at the time of writing. Yesterday the Pound was increasing in value on hopes of May’s cabinet supporting her deal, but this morning the situation is very different with Sterling under increasing pressure.

This morning its emerged that Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary that took over from David Davis after he resigned, has this morning resigned himself stating that he ‘cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU’. This has put further pressure on Sterling with money markets now suggesting the chances of another interest rate hike from the Bank of England has now lowered.

Whether the Aussie Dollar will continue to climb against the Pound this morning will depend on whether there are further resignations from her cabinet, and also whether May can pass her Brexit deal through Parliament. The rumour mill suggests she will need to gain the support of of more than 50 hardcore Tory Brexiteers and Labour rebels. Donald Tusk has also hinted at concerns May could lose her position which would scupper the plans agreed over the past week.

Some key figures from within the hardcore Brexit movement have already announced their disapproval, and I think there could be further resignations based of the knee jerk reaction to her proposals.

Economic data is likely to take a back seat regarding GBP exchange rates at the moment, with Brexit remaining the main driver of currency value. If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Does May have the backing to get her Brexit Plan through in January? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – GBP/AUD again has fallen below the key resistance point 1.80. This was due to news Theresa May lacks support from the cabinet to push her Brexit plan through. It seems that every time the UK on the cusp of a deal there is a problem created not only from Brussels, but also from inner fighting within parliament.

It seems the Chequers plan was reluctantly backed in the first place due to the need for progress and the threat of a no deal. The backing of the deal has been described as a deeply undesirable compromise. A minster said that most of those who backed the deal did so “with a very heavy heart”.

Two cabinet ministers last night announced on the BBC that there is little chance that  the current deal would get through parliament and the Theresa May still pursuing agreement on the is deal could be considered “self harming”.

Even if a deal is agreed with Brussels the deal must then be voted through by the cabinet in January.

The EU withdrawal Act of 2018 highlights that the government must announce before 21st January  if it can or cannot reach a deal. If the date in not met the government will have 5 days to make a statement outlining how the UK wishes to proceed and subsequent arrangements for the motion to be passed through parliament.

Despite all this news I am still of the opinion a deal will be reached despite all the in house fighting, the consequences of not getting a deal is simply too great. Talks are intensifying and if there is solid news on the Irish Border I think we could see a Sterling rally. If you are looking at risk reward and are selling the Australian Dollar I would not hesitate to take advantage of current levels at 1.78. Pre-Brexit GBP/AUD was 2.20, although I do not expect a rally of this extent I think it is important to remember Sterling is chronically undervalued.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

 

 

 

Could we see further gains for AUD? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – We have seen gains for the Australian Dollar against sterling of late, however I think this is more down to current situation with Brexit rather than positive news on the Australian economy. I believe Sterling would be making advances against the Aussie were it not for the debacle that is Brexit.

GBP/AUD currently just sits above 1.80, testing what has been a key resistance point in the past 12 months. I am of the belief we could see further Aussie gains as Brexit talks intensify. If I had to make a call on what I think will occur, it will be that talks will go the eleventh hour and a deal will be agreed. The last date at which a deal can be agreed will be the EU summit in mid-December, I would expect there to be a significant Sterling rally, but keep in mind that if a deal is agreed it will have to be voted through by the House of Commons in January, if it gets the OK expect GBP to gain further ground.

Although December is the EU summit where I expect a deal to be agreed. If I was an Aussie seller I would be wary, if a deal is coming close to fruition it will be in the press and the markets will react, the market moves on rumour as well as fact. Keep in mind pre-Brexit GBP/AUD sat above 2.20. There are dangers for the Aussie due to the Chines – US trade war. Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials is a burden in this circumstance. The tariffs in place are hurting Chinese growth which in turn is hurting the Australian economy. The trade war is set to intensify and be prolonged. During times of global economic uncertainty investors flee riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in search of safe haven investments with higher returns. If I was selling Aussies I would take advantage of current levels or if you have a high risk appetite consider performing a tranche at current levels for safety.

If you have a currency requirement, please do get in touch I will be happy to assist. Yo can drop me a mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson.

 

GBP/AUD hits lowest level in 10-days as Brexit issues weigh on the Pound

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest levels of the past 10-days. This has happened after GBP/AUD hit an annual high of just over 1.87 last week, which was also the highest level since the major drop in June of 2016 when the Brexit vote outcome was announced.

Sterling had hit such high levels against AUD as hopes of a Brexit deal being agreed shortly were high. These hopes are now fading and GBP exchange rates have softened across the board of major currency pairs as it now look likely that UK and EU negotiators will not be able to agree on the terms of the Brexit deal by the EU’s deadline.

Later this week there will be an EU Summit in Brussels and the main focus is expected to be the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will give a speech to the EU leaders regarding her plans and the progress made so far. There will also be meeting behind closed door’s that she isn’t invited to, and depending on the outcome of the recent negotiations and the EU Summit this week I think there could be movement for the GBP to AUD rate.

The Aussie Dollar hasn’t lost a dramatic amount of value against the Pound as markets will still be holding out for a Brexit deal by November, but seeing GBP/AUD drop over the past few trading days is worth considering for those of our clients planning on making a transfer.

From the Australian side there will be Employment data out of Thursday at 1.30am UK time. If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Price changes for GBP/AUD likely to be driven by the Pound over the next 24-hours

Those of our clients and regular readers following the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate should pay close attention to UK politics today, as I believe the next spike in the GBP/AUD’s value is likely to be driven by UK politics.

Yesterday all eyes were on Boris Johnson’s speech at the Conservative Party Conference, and he didn’t disappoint as he gave another harsh critique of the ‘Chequers plan’ devised by the current UK Prime Minister, Theresa May. Today there could be movement for Sterling exchange rates against all major currency pairs as it’s the final day of the Conservative Party Conference, and Theresa May is scheduled to speak with Brexit being the main focus.

Yesterday Boris Johnson was supportive of May’s leadership but he once again urged her to move away from the Chequers plan she has devised and suggested that she focuses more on a Canadian style deal. I expect her to be questioned on his comments and the markets to follow her responses closely. With Brexit now just around the corner and expectations of a deal being in place by November, I expect to see Brexit headlines dominate financial media and for it to be the main driver of the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate.

On the Australian side we’ve seen the currency soften over the past year, mostly owing to Aussie Dollar weakness. The greater the gap between US and Australian exchange rates the more likely this trend will continue, so those following the strength of the Aussie Dollar should also pay attention to US monetary policy and this is something we can help our readers with should they wish.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Could we see further gains for Sterling against the Aussie ? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling has made gains against the Aussie of late following a statement from chief Brexit negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier. Barnier said that it is realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. Following the announcement we have seen GBP/AUD hit 1.83.

There are also concerns from down under which was another catalyst for the Spike.  Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s exports and if there is an impact to the Chinese economy it can have repercussions on Australia. The ongoing trade war between China and the US is an example of this.

China have vowed to match the US Dollar for Dollar on tariffs and both sides are preparing further tariffs. As the war escalates investor confidence in the Australian Dollar is waning. During times of global economic uncertainty investors seek out safe haven investments with solid returns.

The US Dollar is the destination of choice, 10yr bond yields are currently the highest for years and there are also expected to be further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

There is also the problem of living costs. Many seek to live in high wage growth  areas such as Sydney or Melbourne. Housing prices in these area are proving overly expensive and Australians are being forced to spend their hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods which is hurting the Aussie.

Although the lack of Brexit progress is holding back the pound I think the Aussie is one of the few major currencies we could see further gains.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Downward trend for GBP/AUD continues, is a move towards 1.70 now a possibility?

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has been weakening ever since hitting its highest level of the year back in April of this month. Back then the rate was 1.8450 and at the time of writing the rate has since dropped to levels 10-cents lower than this.

This price movement can be attributed to a number of reasons, with Brexit uncertainties perhaps at the top of the list. When the Pound was trading at its 2018 high vs the Aussie Dollar this was back when there appeared to be a clearer Brexit plan along with expectations of interest rate hikes. Since then although there has been a rate hike the Brexit plan has become unclear with infighting amongst the current government, a number of key resignations and also the probability of a ‘No Brexit Deal’ overtaking the chances of a deal being in place when Brexit begins next year.

AUD exchange rates have also benefited now that US – China trade talks have eased, as Australia is likely to be negatively affected if a trade war heats up and global trade slows. The close proximity to China is another reason for AUD sellers to be weary of this topic as China is also Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Moving forward Brexit is likely to be the biggest market mover for the pair, although there are economic data releases that can influence the rates. This week at 9.30am UK time there will be the release of Public Sector Net Borrowing cost for July. This figure will be out of the UK and an increasing figure on the previous one is likely to result in a downward movement for the Pound.

Also on Tuesday is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes report which could also result in market movement. There are no interest changes expected from the RBA until next year, but expect any allusions to result in market movement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Turkish situation helps the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling has gained ground against against the Aussie of late. I would not put this down to Sterling strength however. I think the rise in the Pounds value can be attributed to a lack of investor confidence in commodity based currencies following the situation in Turkey.

With the severe fall in Turkish Lira and the lack of monetary policy intervention investors have been seeking safe haven investments. If the US-Turkish trade war escalates this could again have knock on affects to the Australian Dollar. We have seen the situation ease in the last 24hrs as Qatar have offered financial support to Turkey.

Despite the Australian monetary policy outlook not being particularly favorable the uncertainty on the Brexit situation outweighs any concerns for the Australian economy.

GBP/AUD now sits just above 1.75. I believe there is potential for Sterling to fall further due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. With a “no deal” scenario still a possibility the Pound remains anchored at low levels against the majority of major currencies.

If you have to move short term buying the Aussie I would take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.