Tag Archives: AUD

Turkish situation helps the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling has gained ground against against the Aussie of late. I would not put this down to Sterling strength however. I think the rise in the Pounds value can be attributed to a lack of investor confidence in commodity based currencies following the situation in Turkey.

With the severe fall in Turkish Lira and the lack of monetary policy intervention investors have been seeking safe haven investments. If the US-Turkish trade war escalates this could again have knock on affects to the Australian Dollar. We have seen the situation ease in the last 24hrs as Qatar have offered financial support to Turkey.

Despite the Australian monetary policy outlook not being particularly favorable the uncertainty on the Brexit situation outweighs any concerns for the Australian economy.

GBP/AUD now sits just above 1.75. I believe there is potential for Sterling to fall further due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. With a “no deal” scenario still a possibility the Pound remains anchored at low levels against the majority of major currencies.

If you have to move short term buying the Aussie I would take advantage of current levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound makes gains vs the Australian Dollar after Turkish issue and UK inflation data due out (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few days and the move appeared to happen following the news in Turkey that Donald Trump has imposed an addition to tariffs on both steel and aluminium on Turkey and this started to cause huge problems in the country.

The Turkish Lira has dramatically weakened in value over the last few days and this has caused a number of commodity based currencies to weaken as global investors have sold off riskier based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

After briefly flirting with rates in the 1.73 levels recently the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is now back to trading above 1.76.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed recently that it will be keeping interest rates on hold while it waits for economic growth to improve and this has also helped the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar and the Australian Dollar is now at its lowest level vs the US Dollar in two years.

The RBA does not appear to be too concerned with the value of the Australian Dollar and because it is a big export market if the AUD continues to weaken then this could help to improve economic growth in Australia.

The UK and the Pound has had a good start to the week against a number of different currencies with the news that UK unemployment is close to its lowest levels since 1975 with the figure now sitting at 4%.

We could be in for further movement later this morning with the release of UK inflation data due to be published at 930am.

Inflation has been a big factor in the Bank of England’s recent decision to increase interest rates and with the data expected to show 2.5% year on year which is above the 2% target then this could provide further evidence in support of further rate hikes in the UK which could help to move GBPAUD exchange rates in an upwards direction.

If you would like a free quote or further information about how to save money compared to using your own bank when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

To what extent will Turkish sentiments drive GBPAUD this week?

The Australian dollar has been weakening as investor sentiments are frayed following the Turkish concerns which have been rattling financial markets. Essentially riskier assets are being sold off in favour of safer haven investments like the US dollar and Japanese Yen. The Turkish currency is being sold off and the funds are finding their way into the US dollar, creating big swings on other currencies like the Aussie.

GBPAUD has risen almost 1% today as investors also sell the Australian dollar because they feel it could also be at the mercy of the same sentiments which have driven the Turkish lira lower. For many years the cheap flow of money from the US in the form of QE (Quantiative Easing) had found itself invested  globally in emerging markets which offered higher returns.

With the market becoming spooked at the potential of further sell-offs, we could easily see a further deterioration in the Australian dollar which would see it become more expensive to buy. The outlook is not all rosy for AUD buyers with sterling however, as the rising US dollar is weighing the pound down too.

GBPAUD could be in for a very volatile period as the market struggles to price in the uncertainty up ahead. The market is eagerly looking for some kind of solution to the crisis which could easily spread to other investments and currencies. The problems in Turkey are not just effecting Turkey, many European banks have huge exposure to Turkish investments.

There is also important data due for the UK with Unemployment Tuesday, Inflation on Wednesday and Retail Sales Thursday. On the Australian side we have Unemployment data released Thursday, all in all a busy week ahead for GBPAUD.

I foresee a levels in the mid-1.70’s following a testing of the 1.73 level last week. In the absence of a new negative news I see sterling finding some support, the Turkish pressures should also ensure the Australian dollar is not appreciating too much.

For more information on the best rates and strategy to maximise your deal, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian Dollar continues to lose value as inflation levels stall

The financial markets don’t expect to see the base rate of interest change down under until the end of next year according to futures markets, and this is perhaps one of the reasons behind the Aussie Dollars weakening currently.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t amend rates the AUD will lose competitiveness as we’ve already seen, as the likelihood of investors holding assets in the currency diminishes owing to the less competitive of the currency. The US Dollar on the other hand has benefited greatly from its more aggressive monetary policy and the greenback has strengthened by such an extent that US President, Donald Trump has voiced his concerns.

The latest bout of Inflation data out of Australia shows that inflation has risen by 2.1% over the past year, which is slightly lower than what economists were expecting. There doesn’t appear to be much momentum regarding Australian inflation levels which is perhaps the reason behind the low expectations of a rate hike in the short-term future.

Although the Pound has been under pressure in recent months owing to the Brexit plan uncertainty, the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is still towards the top end of it’s longer term trend, which demonstrates the pressure AUD exchange rates have come under. The GBP/AUD pair is likely to be driven by both monetary policy and UK based politics as the UK is going through a crucial time due to the Brexit.

Those monitoring the Aussie Dollars value should also pay attention to US President, Donald Trumps trade tariff’s plans as AUD has come under pressure owing to these concerns. With the Australian economy being reliant on global demand a slowdown to the global economy is likely to have a negative impact the Australian Dollars value.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD no longer testing 1.80, is a move down into the lower 1.70’s now likely?

After testing the 1.80 mark for a number of weeks, the Pound has recently slipped from these high levels and now the pair are trading closer to 1.75. The 1.80 level does appear to be a resistance and for some time now Sterling sellers would have been best to target their transfers when the mid-market level is as close to 1.80 as possible.

Uncertainty surrounding the UK governments Brexit plans and whether they will be agreed upon in time is behind the drop in the Pound’s value. The fall hasn’t just been against the Aussie Dollar but also against many other major currency pairs with the fall against the US Dollar being one of the most dramatic, as it’s hit a 10-month low.

This week it’s emerged that the Australian jobs market is alot healthier than expected after a substantial amount more jobs were created in May than expected. This has boosted the Aussie Dollar as up until this week the average amount of new jobs was just 16,000 monthly.

One potential downside for the Aussie Dollar is the lack of movement with regards to monetary policy, as the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t plan on amending interest rates this year.

With many major economies beginning to make the hikes the Aussie Dollar may lose value as investors opt not to hold funds in AUD.

With little economic data out of Australia for the remainder of the week, our readers have time to get in touch and plan around transfers next week. Do feel free to get in touch if you would like to discuss next week’s economic data releases and how they could impact the rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

US Trade Wars to hurt the Aussie (Daniel Johnson)

How will the ongoing Trade Wars effect AUD?

Trump is  fighting trade wars on several fronts. He is unhappy with the trade deals currently in place with the EU, China and the US and is also renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) involving Canada and Mexico.

The US has been imposing tariffs on all fronts, with the tariffs of choice being steel and aluminium. The tariffs placed on China could prove particularly detrimental to the Australian economy due to Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese purchasing it’s raw materials. The tariffs could hit Chinese growth which would cause a change in demand and price for Australia’s raw materials, particularly iron ore.

Global economic uncertainty is causing investors to move away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in search of safe haven investments. Despite the US being at the centre of the ongoning trade wars. It is proving to be the destination of choice for investors. Interest rate levels are impressive and there is predicted to be several more hikes from the Fed this year. Ten year treasury bonds are also offering some of the highest returns in years.

Personally I feel China is in a trade war that cannot be won. If they intend to match US tariffs Dollar for Dollar they would need to impose tariffs on all US exports which is simply not feasible and would hit both economies hard. This would in turn have repercussions on the Aussie.

GBP/AUD -Sterling remains fragile due the lack of clarity on access to the customs union. There is due to be a proposal put forward from Theresa May to her cabinet at Chequers on Friday. If the proposal is accepted on the third attempt Brexit negotiations can move forward and the proposal can be presented to Brussels.

If the proposal is initially accepted on Friday you can expect Sterling strength. Personally if I was buying Australian Dollars short term I would be moving in the 1.79s. 1.80 is proving to be a resistance point.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

US-China Trade War causes investors to lose confidence in AUD

GBP/AUD – The pound has made gains against the Australian Dollar of late, predominantly due to investors looking for safe haven investments due to the ongoing trade war between China and the US. Beijing has said it will match US tariffs Dollar for Dollar which is a risky game considering Trump has promised further tariffs if there is Chinese retaliation. US officials are already preparing $100bn in additional tariffs should the Chinese go through with the rumored retaliation.

US total exports to China last year were an impressive at $130bn. A like for like retaliation from the Chinese would have to cover all US exports which could be very detrimental to China.

Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials the Australian Dollar has been losing value. The tariffs could hamper Chinese growth which is causing investor confidence to move away from riskier commodity based currencies.

Bank of England Interest Rate Outlook – Last week we saw the the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision, rates were kept on hold, but it appeared a rate hike was drawing closer. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 against a hike which was up from the previous month 7-2. The markets reacted and we saw Sterling make gains against the Aussie.

Current polls are suggesting over a 50% chance of the BOE raising interest rates by 0.25% at the August meeting, and over 90% chance of a hike happening before the end of the year. I am not so convinced, one of the MPC members to vote in favour of a hike Ian McCafferty  is to be replaced by the more dovish Jonathan Haskel. It is unlikely Haskel will vote in favour of a hike in August and this could push a hike further down the road. In fact considering current economic data I do not think a rate hike will be  justifiable this year.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chroincally undervalued due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, but short term there is very little reason for Sterling to make any substantial gains.  1.80 is currently a resistance point although it is being tested, personally considering the current economic situation if  GBP/AUD is in the 1.79s you are in a good position to trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

 

Hawkish Bank of England comments push the Pound higher, will GBP/AUD breach 1.80 again soon?

Despite the Pound to US Dollar rate trading at a 7-month low against the US Dollar, the currency has actually been boosted against most major currency pairs today.

The reason for the boost to the Pound to Aussie Dollars value can be put down to the Bank of England’s comments and the voting pattern of the Bank of England members. The Aussie Dollar lost a lot of value against the Pound today which is why the focus of this blog is on that particular pair.

There are now 3 members of the Bank of England that wish to increase interest rates in the UK, and this is one of the reasons for today’s boost to Sterling exchange rates. The highest the GBP/AUD pair have hit today is 1.7979 although the pair have since slipped off which to me demonstrates that there may be resistance at the 1.80 mark as we’ve previously seen.

There isn’t expected to be any rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia until next year, so I do think that the Pound will climb against AUD should the hints at a rate hike later in the year from the BoE materialise.

With a quiet end to the week in terms of data I’m expecting to see AUD exchange rates driven by sentiment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Weak data results in a drop for the Aussie Dollar, where to next for AUD exchange rates?

There’s been a loss for the Aussie Dollar across the board of major currency pairs today, with it’s losses against the Pound and the Japanese Yen being the biggest.

Employment figures down under for May were released this morning, and that caused the Aussie Dollar to drop as the figures released were worse than expected. The figures have got worse in recent months which is another reason for the sell-off of the Aussie Dollar.

Some disappointing data out of out of China recently has also weighed on the Aussie Dollars value, owing to the close trading relationship between the two nations. This isn’t an unusual pattern and those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar should consider this in future.

The poor data out of China has caused China-linked commodity prices and also the Chinese stock market to fall, and this isn’t a great sign for the Aussie Dollar moving forward. Fears surrounding the trade tariff’s potentially put on China by the US are also weighing on AUD exchange rates.

There’s a speech planned by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant Governor Ellis tomorrow. Although no changes to monetary policy down under are expected this year its worth following his comments in case he alludes to future monetary policy changes or even the slowdown in the Australian economy recently.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market move for AUD exchange rates, do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit uncertainty continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling remains fragile due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and poor economic data. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations expect the pound to rally. Unfortunately very little progress is being made. The current point of contention is the Irish border deal. At present Theresa May and David Davis are unable to even agree on a back up deal if a deal on the Irish border cannot be reached. Ideally they would like to have something in place before the EU summit on 28th June. The current situation does not bode well for Sterling.

Recent data releases continue to be poor, manufacturing data this week saw the biggest fall since October 2012 and GDP came in below expectations at 0.2%. Average wage growth also saw a decline, unemployment remained unchanged, but it is important to remember that zero hour contracts are not a stable form of employment.

I am of the opinion there is little justification for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in the coming months and would be surprised to see one this year.

Thing are not all rosy down under however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore. The ongoing trade war with China and US is a concern. If China’s growth drops, so will the demand for Australian goods and services which will hit the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

There are economists with the view there is the possibility of a rate hike from the RBA this year. I am not so confident.

If you are buying Aussies GBP/AUD is currently range bound between 1.75-1.80. Aim for 1.77 + if you have to move short term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson