Tag Archives: AUD/EUR

Brexit uncertainty continues to hurt the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling remains fragile due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and poor economic data. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations expect the pound to rally. Unfortunately very little progress is being made. The current point of contention is the Irish border deal. At present Theresa May and David Davis are unable to even agree on a back up deal if a deal on the Irish border cannot be reached. Ideally they would like to have something in place before the EU summit on 28th June. The current situation does not bode well for Sterling.

Recent data releases continue to be poor, manufacturing data this week saw the biggest fall since October 2012 and GDP came in below expectations at 0.2%. Average wage growth also saw a decline, unemployment remained unchanged, but it is important to remember that zero hour contracts are not a stable form of employment.

I am of the opinion there is little justification for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in the coming months and would be surprised to see one this year.

Thing are not all rosy down under however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore. The ongoing trade war with China and US is a concern. If China’s growth drops, so will the demand for Australian goods and services which will hit the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

There are economists with the view there is the possibility of a rate hike from the RBA this year. I am not so confident.

If you are buying Aussies GBP/AUD is currently range bound between 1.75-1.80. Aim for 1.77 + if you have to move short term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Important news to move Australian dollar exchange rates!

The Australian dollar has been a stronger contender on exchange rates lately as investors back the Australian dollar to potentially improve in the future. This is all owing to the improved expectations we have of late that the Chinese economy will improve further and the global economy is not as badly affected by the Trade Wars.

The Trade Wars and potential future trading activity of the global economy is a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates, if you are looking for improvements for buying or selling the Australian dollar, keeping abreast of the latest developments is key to maximising your overall position. Australian unemployment data next week could be a big driver as attitudes to the economy and the labour market are vital to shifts in the likelihood of the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) to raise interest rates in the future.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then understanding the market and all of your options in advance is highly recommended to help minimise the inherent uncertainty of just where levels could potentially go. On GBPAUD exchange rates we could easily see the rate rise to 1.80 if better UK news and worse information on the Aussie comes into play.

Next week is also crucial as we have the latest US interest rate decision where the market is anticipating further information from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate expectations. This could see the US dollar rise which would weaken the Aussie, their relationship is quite closely linked since both now have similar interest rates but investors might prefer to hold the US dollar as it is seen as a more stable and reliable currency.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key, for more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

What factors are likely to impact the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate? (Joseph Wright)

Despite the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate improving recently in line with the Pounds good performance in general, there are some analysts expecting to see the Aussie Dollar gain in the months to come.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) follow in the footsteps of the US and begin raising interest rates like many expect them to, I think we can expect to see the Aussie Dollar strengthen so those hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should be aware of this.

In the current market conditions the markets are usually aware of any upcoming rates changes and it’s usual to see the change being priced into the value of the currency in the weeks and months leading up to the actual change.

Those following the GBP to AUD exchange rate should be weary of this as any allusions from the RBA could result in immediate changes in the exchange rate which currently sits around the 1.75 mark.

From the UK’s perspective the Brexit is likely to continue to drive the value of the Pound as markets the outcome of Brexit negotiations. A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Theresa May recently came out and said that there is yet to be a transitional agreement made despite reports from some sources suggesting there was.

If you wish to be updated in the event of a short term price change for the Pound, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Best rates to sell AUD for pounds in 1 month

The pound has been performing much better against most currencies lately including the Australian dollar. The GBPAUD price has recently been hitting the best time since the Referendum vote to buy AUD with pounds. However in the last week a much stronger Aussie has seen the rate drop to the 1.73’s presenting a fresh opportunity for AUD sellers looking to buy pounds. If you need to buy or sell AUD then getting your timing and the price right can save you thousands.

A much better employment report for Australia has helped the currency to rise as it makes the likelihood of any interest hike down the line more likely. The Aussie had actually been much weaker lately, in part due to speculation that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) would keep their base rate on hold for longer. The latest Unemployment news from Australia was much improved with lots of news jobs being created and participation rates increasing.

The Aussie is strong against the pound too because of fresh uncertainty over what lies ahead with the Brexit deals and we can be expected in 2018. We might have secured a deal so far for the more short term and pressing issues, but there is still a long way to go in order to see Brexit fully in full swing. This may take years and the recent improvement in the outlook for the pound, whilst welcome, can surely not be here to stay?

Next week is some further key economic data which could easily trigger market movements, overall I expect markets to be trading on political developments with Brexit. Since it is also holiday season thinner trading volumes in the market could create some extra opportunity!

If you have a transfer to make and wish to get the best rates and latest news, please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound to Australian Dollar rate manage to hold its ground above 1.70? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen against most currency pairs today, making the converting of Pounds into other foreign currencies such as the Aussie Dollar a less attractive prospect.

Since breaking back above 1.70 against the Aussie Dollar, which has been a key psychological level for GBP/AUD since the Brexit vote the Pound has managed to hold its ground above it despite some negative data coming out the UK today.

Sterling has been helped regarding the GBP/AUD pair by Aussie Dollar weakness, as some particularly poor retail sales figures from down under recently spooked the markets.

Today it was also retail sales figures that disappointed but this time it was the UK’s retail sales figures.

With Brexit talks forever in the financial headlines at the moment putting pressure on the Pound, along with disappointing data out of Australia recently it may be a battle of which currency is the weakest that determines where GBP/AUD goes next.

There are no more major economic data releases out of the UK this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment. With all that’s going on in the UK politically at the moment I there can always be a news release that swings GBP exchange rates, and if you wish to be updated if there are any big moves it’s certainly worth registering your interest with me.

Next week there will be releases that could impact the GBP/AUD rate further, so it’s worth getting in touch before the weekend if you wish to plan around any key times.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Will pressure on Sterling result in further falls for GBP/AUD, even if the RBA doesn’t want a stronger Aussie Dollar? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a lot of talk recently from both economists as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia that the Aussie Dollar is an overvalued currency.

Of all the major currencies the Aussie Dollar is the 4th best performer so far in 2017, and whilst this sounds like a positive thing to many the reality is an overvalued currency isn’t great news for export driven currencies due to the fact that it makes purchasing goods from Aussie more expensive, and therefore negatively impacts the economy.

The issue the RBA have is that cutting interest rates again in order to stem demand for the currency isn’t easy, as the likely market reaction within the property market would be negative. This is why I don’t think there will be a rate cut, as the property market is already overheating and if they make mortgages even more affordable that problem could spiral, especially in the East-cost of the country where property prices are already very high and unaffordable in many cases.

The Pound is coming under increasing pressure due to the Bank of England’s decision not to raise interest rates, and also just yesterday it emerged that the BoE’s forecast for the UK economy in 2017 isn’t going to grow at the rate they had previously expected.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Sterling climbs against the Aussie Dollar as the RBA warns of strong currency putting pressure on Australian economy (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate hit 1.66 in the early hours of this morning, and this was the first time in over 2-weeks that we’ve seen the Pound trade this high.

The headline comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the early hours came in the form of a warning, saying that the ‘Aussie’s recent strength has been placing pressure on the Australian economy’ and this resulted in the selling off of AUD.

The RBA appears to be fairly neutral in its outlook for future growth after suggesting that forecasts for the Australian economy remain unchanged (currently at 3% annually).

The fall for the Aussie dollar came after data showed that sentiment within the Manufacturing sector strengthened, along with the positive move of 7% increase in the value of Iron Ore which has given AUD a boost.

It appears that the RBA would prefer a weaker Aussie Dollar and I think that those planning on converting Aussie Dollars into Pounds should consider the gains they’ve seen recently, and whether they think the Aussie can continue to strengthen at its current rate.

This Thursday is likely to be a busy day for Sterling exchange rates as a whole and I expect to see the GBP/AUD rate see volatility. Thursday is being billed as ‘Super Thursday’ and if you would like to discuss why in future detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Political and Economic uncertainty weigh down the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Will Sterling’s woes continue?

The pound has had a terrible time recently, GBP/AUD currently sitting at 1.6408. A small increase in GDP this week did little to bolster Sterling’s position. There are many reasons for Sterling’s weakness and I am struggling to find any reason for the pound to rally. The vote to exit the EU is having a huge impact on the UK economy. UK Inflation has been on a rising increase of late, reaching a high of 2.9%. If the rise continued there was potential the Bank of England would increase interest rates. Several members of the Monetary Policy Committee changed their stance and voted in favour of a rate hike. The rumours of a hike caused a short lived spike for the pound, however more recent inflation data saw a fall to 2.6%. With the chance of a rate hike now dashed, the pound fell in value against the Australian Dollar.

I believe a rate hike is not the solution to increase in inflation and the recent dip is a positive thing bringing us closer to average wage growth at 1.8% . There is a close correlation between average wage growth and inflation. Imported goods are more expensive due to the weak value Sterling the price increase is now being passed on to the consumer. Provided consumers still consider to spend this is fine, if they do not however the UK economy could be in serious trouble. Historically, political uncertainty weakens the currency in question and fifteen members of the conservative party have recently given a vote of no confidence regarding May’s position as PM. We need a stable government in place in order for the pound to rally against the Australian Dollar. Inflation has fallen on the other side of the pond and this is detrimental to the Aussie, but nothing that will weaken it considerably.

Brexit Talks a key factor on GBP/AUD buoyancy levels

Compromises will have to be made and the “have your cake and eat strategy” will have to be dropped.  Immigration laws need to allow the freedom of movement of people if there is to be access to free trade and this kind of defeats one of the main reasons  .This goes against one of the main reasons that voters chose to leave the EU  and would cause public uproar. Which is why I think compromises will be made, do not think these will happen quickly however it is likely to happen over time to soften the blow to those who voted to leave.

If you have a currency trade to perform I will be happpy to help. It is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have confidence knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Will the issues surrounding the Australian property market weaken AUD further? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate hit 1.7430 at it’s highest point during today’s session, although at the time of writing the Pound appears to have lost all of today’s earlier gains.

It’s difficult to tell which way the rate will move next, although I think that it will be underlying weakness that results in the next big move for the GBP/AUD pair as both currencies are coming under pressure for differing reasons.

China was downgraded by Moody’s (a credit rating agency) for the first time in 30 years due to slowing growth in the region although markets haven’t overreacted as a slowing in growth was inevitable.

This could spell bad news for the Aussie Dollar moving forward due to the interconnected economies (Australia and China) being quite reliant on each other. At the same time further talk of the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne overheating are surfacing again, and with a slowdown in the construction sector down under becoming a talking point as well I think there could be issues for AUD later down the line.

The Pound has also come under pressure due to the terrorist attack earlier this week, and with the election just around the corner we could see further headwinds for the Pound as we get closer to the election date (the 8th of June).

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.