Tag Archives: AUD/GBP forecast
GBPAUD rates continued their climb this week as the consensus builds that the Reserve bank of Australia will cut interest rates next week. GBPAUD rates are at multiple year highs now. However the gamble still remains for traders as to which Central bank will make a change first. As a result it makes it very difficult to forecast where rates will be in a weeks’ time. The information about what is happening in Australia has been well covered on this site, in this blog I will explain in details what is happening in London.
The Pound has generally been losing recently against most currencies. It is only currencies that are based on raw material exports which has gained. However GBPAUD rates could be hugely impacted by events in London next week. On Wednesday next week the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to release their “forward Guidance” on the banks policy of asset buying, commonly known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The consensus is for more later this year so a further fall is expected for Sterling Exchange rates next week.
As a result anyone with Sterling to sell may wish to move sooner rather than later to limit their exposure to a further fall, this news could result in as much as a 2% fall in a day or £5,500 on a AUD $200,000 purchase.
Why is the bank doing Forward Guidance?
The BOE’s target is to boost economic growth and keep inflation low. One of the ways to do this is by doing QE as it boosts the amount of money in the system which increases the amount that is lent to businesses by banks, this in turn increase their turnover and creates more taxable revenue as well as growth. When this happens and more money is added to the book the money in the system is worth less and this is reflected as we see the value of the Pound fall. This also helps the BOE reach its goals by making the UK’s exports more competitive to foreigners as well as making investing in the UK cheaper. So really a weaker Pound helps the BOE reach its targets, it is good for the bank.
It seems highly likely that more QE will as a result come later this year, so if the BOE confirms this the market will fall and weaken the Pound several months early. As a result the BOE is maximising the gains they see as the Pound is weaker for longer. That is why the BOE is now looking at doing Forward Guidance and why the consensus is for a further fall in the value of Sterling next week.
If you are looking at moving money internationally this will definitely make a difference to your exchange rate over the next few months. To talk through how this could affect your situation feel free to contact me for more information and a quotation of live exchange rates – firstname.lastname@example.org
With the pound starting to move in the right direction against the Australian Dollar we are currently trading at 3 month high. The recent cut in interest rates looks to be the main factor why the Aussie Dollar has weakened. Having said this it looked at one stage last week taht this would not be enough to halt the strength of the Dollar.
Looking forward there are analysts that feel the RBA will look at cutting rates again next month and this could enable the pound to move up to the late 1.50′s maybe hit 1.60. This would be a welcomed boost for all of you that have been holding out for the rate to rise. If you are selling AUD I would be cautious as you do not want the losses to continue as the RBA would like a weaker currency. If however the AUD performs like it has in the past then even another rate cut may not be enough to significantly weaken the dollar by 3-4% Certainly interesting times ahead for the currency pair.
Data is a little thin on the ground this week down under but Wednesday there is a lot of data out for the UK which could cause the rate to move one way or the other. If you have a currency conversion to make over the coming weeks then please do conatct me at email@example.com and I can explain the options that are available to you plus I can explain how we can beat the rates your bank offers you.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.
The Australian Dollar has been on a roller coaster ride since the RBA decided to cut interest rates last week. After the decision we witnessed the Aussie weaken against a range of currencies and there have since been rumours that the RBA may look at cutting rates once more next month to help curb the strengthening AUD.
Today we have seen that even a cut in the base rate of interest is not enough to halt the currency strengthening. As soon as positive data comes out of Australia it seems that the rates increase quite significantly. Better than expected jobs figures from down under have undermined the RBA’s efforts to weaken the strengthening Australian dollar. The jobless rate came in down from 5.6 to 5.5 per cent sending the Aussie to higher levels against the USD since before the interest rate cut. Against sterling the rate is still hovering at 1.52 which is actually significantly higher than the lows of 1.43 a few weeks ago.
The concerning thing for anyone who needs to buy the Aussie Dollar is that over the last year and a half the RBA have cut rates by 2% and the currency has still strengthened. This is a sign of the times that even with the historic low interest rates the Aussie is still stronger than most of its trading partners. If you are hoping that the RBA may cut again in June and that the pound will push on to 1.60 or even 1.70 I personally would not hold out for this. This month has shown that when they cut rates purely to try and spur growth the exchange rate has a habit of strengthening once more.
If you do need to move funds into or out of the Aussie Dollar please feel free to contact me Ben Amrany at firstname.lastname@example.org and I can explain the options that are available to you. We offer a very personal service to help you maximise your exchange while offering savings of up to 4% over the high street banks.
AUD to GBP AUD to USD AUD to EUR AUD Strength
The AUD continue to surpass expectations and has comfortably performed better than any other major currency in the past twelve months. Even though it has moved away from its 30 year high against GBP, it is still trading in the low 1.50′s and providing excellent selling opportunities for all those moving back to the wet and windy UK from their time down under.
It is also sitting near a 52 week high against the EUR and continues to sit above parity with the USD, a statement not many would have believed two years ago. It has continued to prosper whilst the EUR has fallen and in my opinion there is no reason to think that the AUD cannot continue its recent rise, all be it at perhaps a slower pace.
The Australian economy and ultimately the AUD has benefited from China’s sharp rise in economic growth. China currently has the worlds second largest economy and it’s their reliance on Australia’s abundance of raw materials that has spearheaded the Australian economy. Even with the recent slowdown in China’s economy (it has grown at its slowest place in 3 years) the AUD has continued to hold its ground against the other majorly traded currencies.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement or would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements than please feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com or on 01494 787 478.
the Aussie Dollar is at a two month high against a range of currencies. How does events in Europe effect the AUD?
The Aussie Dollar has continued to strengthen against a range of currencies over the weekend including gains against GBP, USD, EUR & YEN. Rates are now hovering at around a 2 month high against a range of currencies and now may be an extremely good time to capitalise on this if you have a requirement to buy any of the above currencies.
The main reason for the Aussie Dollar strength is due to investors appetite for risk once more. Euro zone leaders had a summit last week and an agreement was made to take the pressure off national budgets by using the continent’s bailout fund to provide direct support to struggling banks.
You often find that when confidence is put back into global financial markets the Aussie Dollar goes on a run and strengthens very quickly. So when European ministers agreed measures aimed at sorting out the Euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis there was a very quick run on the Aussie Dollar.
Over the last month with all the uncertainty in Greece and Spain we witnessed the Aussie Dollar lose significant strength. This was because investors decide to move into the safe haven of the USD and move away from the riskier currencies like the AUD. So now that some confidence is back with in the Euro the AUD has gained once more. The question is for how long?
There will be more issues come out of Europe over the next few months. If you are looking at buying or selling the Aussie Dollar I would recommend using events in Europe to your advantage. When there is confidence in Europe sell your Aussie Dollars to buy any major currency and try and do this when there is a good spike in the market like at present. If you need to buy the AUD then try and do this when times are uncertain when the Aussie weakens over the course of a week or two.
If you would like to speak with me about a currency transfer that you need to make over the next few weeks or months then you may email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I will be happy to discuss all the options that are available to you and also explain how we can help assist you getting a better rate of exchange than your high street bank.
The Australian Dollar has seen recent gains against a basket of currencies, including sharp rises against GBP and the EUR. The AUD hit a 30 year high against sterling back in February but has since, perhaps unsurprisingly, started to fall away from that loft position. Last week GBP/AUD rates were above 1.60, over 14 cents away from this high and provided many with some of the best buying opportunities of the past six months.
Australia’s economic prosperity and ultimately the strength of its currency has been interlinked with China’s emergence as the world’s second largest economy and their reliance on Australia’s raw materials. Australia can also boast the strongest economic growth in the first quarter of 2012 and this, along with the on-going fiscal problems in Europe and the fact the UK is back in recession, is why the AUD has seen recent gains.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement or would like to be kept up to date with the latest AUD market information, then please contact me directly at email@example.com or on 01494 787 478