Tag Archives: Aussie dollar

Australian dollar weakness presents opportunity!

The Australian dollar has weakened against most other currencies presenting an improved opportunity to buy the currency. The main reason for this has been the shifts on the sentiment relating to the US and China, the Trade Wars. Another factor is the US raising interest rates which has seen the Aussie losing ground against its counterparts as investors seek higher returning and more reliable shores elsewhere.

The GBPAUD rate has risen to some of the better levels of the week as has USDAUD, the outlook on both pairs could easily support better opportunities to buy the Aussie. Investors will wish to seek out the very best levels they can for buying currency and we can help monitor the market for spikes and improvements as they happen.

Typically, the Australian dollar will lose value when there is uncertainty over what is happening globally and with Australia heavily reliant on trade with China to drive its economy, any signs that there is weakness or problems with China will see the Aussie weaker. Trump’s introduction of $50bn worth of tariffs this week will only serve to amplify this trend and this explains why GBPAUD reached near 1.78 this week.

The longer term forecast for the Australian dollar is strength as the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) seeks a higher interest rate itself. However with the Bank of England and certainly, the United States already raising and well ahead of the RBA, the outlook for the Aussie could be more weakness in the shorter term.

If you have a transaction buying or selling Australian dollars, getting as much information as possible on the rates is key to maximising your position. We are here to help with the planning and execution of any transactions at the very best rates of exchange so to learn more, please contact myself Jonathan Watson to learn more.

Thank you for reading and please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

 

Reasons to be cheerful if you’re buying Australian Dollars

The Australian Dollar has been trading fairly well recently against the Pound but really struggling against a number of other currencies including vs the US Dollar.

The US are set to raise rates again soon and this could even happen on Wednesday evening when the US Federal Reserve hold their latest meeting.

The US have increased rates a number of times since December 2015 and this could be the second rise this year which is likely to put pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.

Over the years the Aussie Dollar has benefited from high interest rates and a relatively stable economy but as the RBA are unlikely to raising rates anytime soon then this is likely to encourage global investors to move their money away from the Australian Dollar.

The knock on effect of this with anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars could potentially be good news.

In my opinion I don’t think we’re too far away from hitting 1.80 again in the near future but it will also be affected by what is happening politically in the UK.

The UK will debate the EU Withdrawal Bill on both Tuesday and Wednesday and the government is keen to get things sorted before the next EU summit due to held on 28th June.

Clearly the ongoing Brexit discussions are causing uncertainty for the UK economy and this is being reflected in the value of the Pound so any good news next week could see a good period for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

I work for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident that not only am I able to save you money on exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

For a free quote then send me an email with details of your requirement and I’ll happily reply.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound increase towards the end of the week vs the Australian Dollar?

The Australian Dollar has improved vs the Pound during the last few days as political tensions between the US and China appear to be easing recently.

Previously, it was suggested that Australia could be caught in the middle of the trade wars between the world’s two largest economies and as Australia is heavily reliant on what happens with the Chinese economy this can often have a big impact on the value of the Aussie Dollar.

Longer term I still think the Australian Dollar will weaken once again as the economy is still rather fragile down under. Inflation is still below the required figure and the Reserve Bank of Australia have suggested on a number of occasions that they will be keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile I fully expect the US to continue on its path of increasing interest rates during the course of 2018 and whilst growth continues to rise in the US I think this will cause global investors to sell off the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar which will provide strong growth and a very positive yield.

This would typically cause the AUD to weaken against a number of different currencies including vs the Pound so I would expect the Pound to make gains in the medium to longer term vs the Australian Dollar.

In the short term the focus will likely turn to what is happening with UK economic data as data in Australia is rather thin on the ground this week.

Tomorrow morning UK inflation is due to be published and this has been a big factor in how the Bank of England has reacted recently as if inflation continues to remain high the general theory is that a central bank increases interest rates to combat high inflation and this would typically strengthen the currency involved.

On Thursday UK Retail Sales are announced and with the previous release having been affected by the ‘beast of the east’ I think we could see the data come out rather positively which could see GBPAUD rates recover towards the end of this week.

If you would like further information about what is happening with the Pound vs the Australian Dollar or if you’d like a free quote to buy or sell Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What factors could push the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate above 1.80 this year? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate has been hovering just below the 1.80 mark for some time now, and although the GBP/AUD pair appear to have consolidated between 1.75 and 1.80 the pair are yet to properly test the 1.80 threshold.

AUD has been boosted in the early hours of this morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes from their latest interest rate decision were announced. The RBA remains positive focusing on wage growth and a pick-up in the global economy moving forward which could lead to a rate hike from the RBA later in the year.

The topic of a rate hike in Australia is likely to be key moving forward as a number of other major economies have begun hiking rates now. AUD had previously benefited from having some of the highest interest rates available in the developed world but as other currencies now offer similar returns AUD has lost its appeal somewhat, and this issue is what could give the Pound a chance of gaining on AUD pushing the GBP/AUD above 1.80.

JP Morgan recently offered their opinion on the Aussie Dollars prospects and suggested the currency could fall as weaker commodity prices and monetary policy divergence put pressure on the AUD’s value.

There is an important data release out this morning from the UK in the form of Average Earnings data. This is key because the figure has disappointed recently and struggled to keep up with inflation levels which had previously made the BoE hesitant to hike interest rates. Should wages have increased over the past 3-months the chances of a rate hike are improved so I would expect to see a jump in the Pound’s value should this be the case.

Planning around events such as these can prove beneficial, so do feel to get in touch to discuss any upcoming transfers you plan on making.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Factors effecting AUD (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – UK Retail Sales hurt Sterling

The Australian Dollar has strengthened against the Pound of late due to retail sales data coming in lower than expectations on Friday.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals the data for both year on year and month on month changes. Retail sales volume was up 1.6% year on year in January, an increase from the previous period 1.5%, but still well below the expected 2.5%.
The monthly growth rate for the quantity bought increased by 0.1% with declines across all main sectors except non-food stores. The results were buoyed by small rise in the purchase of sporting equipment due to the January gym rush this helped offset a fall food sales.
The results were taken as negative and Sterling has suffered as a result.
Richard Lim, Chief Executive of the research consultancy Retail Economics stated the following:
‘Following a wave of profit warning and job cut announcements, these figures confirm a terrible start to the year for retailers. Indeed the worst January since 2013’.

Interest Rate Forecast from the RBA

Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia spoke on Friday and stated that a rate hike would be dependent on inflation rising and further falls in unemployment. He did however say that in regards to a change in monetary policy the RBA would ‘move interest rates up, rather than down’. Inflation is s ac concern down under but Lowe said a strengthening global economy would help put inflation back on the agenda. These statements did cause the Aussie to strengthen against the majority of major currencies. Personally I would be surprised to see a rate hike this year.

Iron Ore Crucial to the value of AUD

Iron Ore is Australia’s biggest export, predominantly to the Chinese. Fluctuations in the price of Iron Ore has a result on the Aussie. Metal Bulletin’s Iron Ore index climbed to the Highest level since January 2011 which bodes well for the Australian Dollar.
I am of the opinion the Pound is chronically undervalued at present. Brexit uncertainty is currently anchoring Sterling and will do until we have clarity on a Brexit deal.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Pound maintains its levels against the Australian Dollar after low Retail Sales (Tom Holian)

The Pound has continued to hold on against the Australian Dollar even after some alarmingly low UK Retail Sales data was published on Friday morning.

Retail Sales especially in December are an extremely important indicator of the UK economy as December is when shops try and make their most money.

With the data for December coming out at 1.4% compared to the expectation of 3% the data typically would have seen a much bigger fall in the value of Sterling. However, this highlights that investors seem to be quite happy holding the Pound at the moment.

The US Dollar has weakened to pre-Brexit levels against the Pound and Sterling has held steady against a number of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar which is good news for anyone looking to send money down under.

Indeed, China’s economy also showed signs of growth which again would typically strengthen the Aussie Dollar as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

However, some sources have suggested that the figures are not entirely accurate as previous economic figures for the year before were inaccurate and overstated.

As we move into next week one of the most crucial days of the week will come on Wednesday when the UK releases the latest set of both Unemployment data as well as Average Earnings.

The jobs market in the UK has been going very well recently hitting the best levels in decades whilst average earnings have been struggling to stay in line with inflation so if you’re in the process of moving Australian Dollars then keep a close eye out on the data release on Wednesday.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

The Pound rallies against commodity based currencies and increases in value against the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound has seen some big gains vs the Australian Dollar on Friday afternoon following the announcement that US inflation data came out lower than expected.

We have seen all the commodity based currencies weaken against the Pound and this is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling.

We also saw lower than expected Chinese Import data and as China is the largest trading partner with Australia this has caused the Aussie Dollar to weaken against the Pound.

The reason why US inflation data is so important to the foreign exchange market is that as the US is the world’s leading economy any slowdown in inflation could mean less appetite for an interest rate hike in the US but more importantly this could show a bit of a global slowdown.

If you combine US inflation with lower than expected US Retail Sales this also has had a negative effect for commodity based currencies.

Therefore, the demand for currencies affected by the value of their raw materials and commodities have weakened. Indeed, the rate to buy Australian Dollars has hit 1.74 which is the highest rate since mid December.

The ongoing uncertainty of how the Brexit talks will go are likely to keep the Pound under so personally I think this positive movement could be relatively short lived so if you’re thinking of buying Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of these current levels.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Australian Dollars against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Mixed opinions for the Australian dollar

The Australian dollar has had a fantastic run against most of the G10 currencies is recent weeks as the Reserve Bank of Australia changed their tune in regards to interest rates. For example, AUDGBP exchange rates have increased from 0.5570 to 0.5805 in just over 4 weeks.

Looking ahead, experts seem to be disagree whether the Australian dollar will continue to surge against the G10 currencies or fall in value throughout 2018 and there are strong arguments either way.

Economists from Commonwealth Bank, UBS and optimistic that it will be a good year for the Australian dollar as they believe now is the start of a considerable downward trend for the US dollar which will help the value of the Australian dollar. Furthermore the Commonwealth Bank and UBS believe commodity prices will do well this year which will continue to help the Aussie and an interest rate hike for the RBA will occur at some point in quarter 1 or 2.

However on the other hand Morgan Stanley expect the complete opposite. They predict that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates however the RBA won’t raise rates until 2019 which will mean a major sell off of Australian dollars in order to buy US dollars will occur. Furthermore Morgan Stanley and Westpac disagree with the forecasts that commodity prices will have a good year. They are predicting a major slow down for China which in turn will mean iron ore prices will fall.

It is quite clear to see that it is impossible to predict the Australian dollars future at present as we are unsure if the RBA will raise interest rates and when this will occur and also the future of commodity prices. Therefore if I were exposed to Australian dollar conversions for the time being I would continue to monitor these developments and also look into the other currency that you would be converting. For example Brexit negations will drive GBPAUD exchange rates and Donald Trumps twitter account coupled with the Feds stance will dictated USDAUD exchange rates.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are converting, your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.