Tag Archives: Aussie dollar

Could GBPAUD break through 1.80 this week? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week GBPAUD hit a 1 year high. Over the last three months the pound has been making considerable inroads against the Australian dollar. Exchange rates have increased from 1.62 to 1.77 and therefore a £200,000 currency transfer today compared to three months ago will generate our clients an additional AU$30,000.

The pound made further inroads against the Aussie last week when UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK are willing to pay €50bn to the EU as a divorce settlement and the EU appeared to be happy with the offer.

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to meet President of the European Commision Jean Claude Juncker and President of the European Council Donald Tusk tomorrow to discuss Brexit further. The divorce settlement bill will be discussed further but a hot topic will be the Irish border.

This weekend in particular, The Republic of Ireland have stated a hard border splitting the Republic of Ireland and Northern Island is not an option and Donald Tusk has announced he would back Ireland over the UK as Ireland will remain a member of the EU.

Reports are suggesting that Theresa May’s teem believe it’s impossible to put a deal on the table for Ireland until the UK know the deal they will receive with the EU in regards to trade. Further reports Rumours suggest Mr Tusk actually agrees with Theresa May therefore I expect this topic will be put on hold on to trade discussions have begun. Therefore I expect the pound to continue to rise against that Australian dollar this week and in fact this month.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian dollar is much weaker and could get even weaker! GBPAUD and EURAUD forecast

The Australian dollar is much weaker overall as concerns grow over the strength of the Chinese economy and also other currencies become more favourable to hold. The expectation is that for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia there will be no interest rate rise any time soon and this will see the currency weaker.

The Australia dollar is a beneficiary of improved global confidence particularly in China. China is a major economy and the strength of the Australian dollar is widely attributable to the strength and weakness of the Chinese economy. Overall impressions for the future centre around a weaker Chinese economy as evidenced by the concerns over the stock market in China which has a large public following

Concerns about the possibly negative outlook on the Chinese economy has troubled the market and this has seen Aussie weaker as a wider reflection of stability in the region.

With sterling finding much favour as the UK government makes gentle progress on Brexit and the Euro also finding form on the back of progress with German coalition talks, GBPAUD and EURAUD have both risen hitting 1.7556 and 1.5697 on the interbank rates. This is presenting excellent fresh opportunities on both currency pairs which should be monitored very closely for potential buyers.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars, global events are increasingly driving the Aussie exchange rates, as opposed to domestic news in the Australian economy. Trying to anticipate and monitor the current outlook is no easy feat but it does seem like for now the Aussie will remain weaker.

Longer term trends could easily see the Aussie regain back these losses but for Aussie holders this could prove an expensive gamble. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.

UK economy growth is picking up, will GBP/AUD reach 1.75 again in the near-term future?

The Pound has picked up once again this afternoon after some better than expected economic data, this time in the form of GDP figures has boosted the markets.

This means that UK economic output in the months of July-September grew by 0.4% whereas it’s grown by 0.5% from August-October. This is of course positive news for the Pound and the Pound is now trading around the 1.7250 mark at the time of writing.

The highest the GBP/AUD rate has traded in the last year is 1.7650 so the rate is now within 4 cents of the best levels so it appears that the rate hike last week from the Bank of England has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

The think-tank that produced today’s GDP figures also believes that the Bank of England will have raised interest rates to 2% by 2021 which is a bit more bullish than the comments outlined by the BoE last week when rates were hiked, and I think that the Pound would climb quite considerably from its current levels should such a bullish monetary policy be adopted by the BoE.

The next busy day for economic data is Tuesday next week, so feel free to get in touch in the meantime if you would like to plan around this event, should you have any upcoming currency requirements.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling to Aussie Dollar rate plunges after BoE rate hike, what happened? (Joseph Wright)

This afternoon at lunchtime the Bank of England hiked interest rates by the expected 0.25 basis points, although in the immediate aftermath the Pound fell dramatically against every major currency pair.

At the time of writing the Pound to Aussie rate has fallen by 2% with the GBPAUD rate now sitting at 1.6917 and the AUDGBP rate sitting at 0.5910.

This afternoons move has come as a surprise to the markets, as usually when the base rate increases the underlying currency climbs. The opposite has happened today though as it appears that prior to the move by the Bank of England the hike was priced into the market, and the commentary afterwards was a bit more bearish than the Sterling bulls had hoped for.

It’s looking like there won’t be a particularly aggressive approach from the Bank of England regarding monetary policy moving forward, which is why we’ve seen the Pound lose so much value in such a short space of time.

There won’t be any further major economic announcements out of the UK tomorrow that are likely to move markets to such a great extent, although Australian Retail Sales data is coming out in the early hours of this morning which may impact the rates.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding any other short-term price movements between the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me. Moves such as today’s can result in large differences in a currency transfer outcome so being aware of these moves can be highly beneficial.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

 

Should I trade my Australian dollars into sterling now? (Dayle Littlejohn)

For people that are emigrating to the UK at some stage you will need to convert Australian dollars into Sterling and thats where I come in. The currency company that I work for undercuts banks exchange rates which means you will have more sterling for when you arrive on UK shores.

Since the Brexit vote rates for selling Australian dollars to buy sterling have been fantastic however in recent weeks the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar due to the devaluation of the Australian dollar and the strengthening of sterling.

Australian inflation fell last week, which confirms the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary that an interest rate is completely off the cards. UK inflation has been on the rise for many months due to the weaker pound and it’s likely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this Thursday which means GBPAUD could push towards the mid 1.70s.

The key economic event that will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates is the Brexit negotiations. The UK and EU negotiators have made it clear that decisions need to be made in the upcoming months, and UK Prime Minster Theresa May confirmed last week that both parties are close to securing the EU citizens rights deal. This is so important for sterling exchange rates as a deal will mean stage 2 negotiations can begin.

For people that need to convert Australian dollars into pounds, you are still receiving something I call ‘the Brexit discount’. In the upcoming months I expect the pound to continue making inroads against the Australian dollar therefore converting sooner rather than later would be my strategy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Is the Aussie Dollars bullish run coming to an end? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is continuing its recovery against the Aussie Dollar, with the rate rising above the 1.70 mark once again and this time almost hitting 1.72 at its highest point during today’s trading session.

I believe this change in direction for the pair can be put down to both Sterling strength as the pound is also putting in some strong performance against other major currency pairs. This is likely due to Brexit headlines and uncertainties not being in the spotlight which has been a welcome change for those hoping to exchange their Pounds at more competitive levels.

The upward movement for GBP/AUD has also been aided by the weakening Aussie Dollar which had previously been one of the strongest performers of the year.

The drop in the Aussie dollars value can be put down to a slowdown in Chinese growth, falling commodity prices such a iron ore which is key for AUD, and also talk of the Reserve Bank of Australia not planning on hiking interest rates until 2019 which is in start contrast to the Bank of England who have alluded to hike as soon as next month.

Tomorrow morning there will be a key data release out of the UK as UK GDP will be released around 9.30am. If this figure deviates from the expectation we could see further movement, so feel free to get in touch with me if you wish to be kept updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

When will the RBA raise rates? (and how will this affect the pound to Aussie rate)

The pound to Australian dollar has become more comfortable above 1.70 lately but we are still having trouble sticking above it. My personal belief is that the pound to Australian dollar rate will rise higher through the 1.70’s as the lack of any interest rate cut down under, and the increased prospect of one in the UK, causes the rate to rise. I therefore think it could be many years before we see a rate hike in Australia and agree with some more recent commentators who state it will be 2019 not 2018 before we see the next hike.

The Australian dollar is already weaker as markets agree that any hike next year is less likely, the strength in growth and employment in the Australian economy is high but many question for how long it will last. With savings rates having dwindled in recent years Australians are having to save even more and this will impact consumer spending. The very strong housing market is a cause for concern but raising interest rates won’t necessarily help the boom, but it will make getting on the ladder even trickier for new home buyers and make mortgages more expensive.

Whilst I do not think the UK will raise rates as quick as many expect (some pencil in November) I do expected much increased rhetoric around the topic over the next couple of months and this could well send sterling higher. If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars this shift will not occur in a straight line, we will undoubtedly see a rather volatile path.

GBPAUD could easily rise to say 1.76 or 1.80 at the top end in the next two months before as UK rates expectations cool and the prospect of any Australian hikes become clearer, see the rate back into the lower 1.70’s or even sub 1.70 again.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds and wish to get some insight into market movements and strategy to maximise your currency exchange we can help with a personal service and excellent rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your situation.

GBP/AUD Forecast Difficult to Judge (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling dropped today after inflation defied expectations and held at the previous level of 2.6%. There was hopes that inflation may rise up to 2.7% however it didn’t happen and the markets responded with Sterling losing a cent against the Australian Dollar. Whilst Sterling has dropped today, in my opinion it didn’t quite go as far as I thought it might. This is due to some of the concerns with the Australian economy which does suggests the Aussie strength is dwindling.

The number of new builds expected in the next few years in Australia looks set to fall which has an effect on the price of housing and the amount of jobs across the country. There is low inflation levels in Australia and despite the Reserve Bank of Australia suggesting they may increase interest rates to 3.5% in the next few years, they wont before inflation rises. This suggests that whilst the GBP/AUD is currently sitting around the mid 1.60’s if good news for Sterling becomes apparent the rate could rise sharply to 1.70.

Unemployment Tomorrow

In the short term there will be Unemployment Data in the early hours of Thursday morning which is expected to show July’s rate has stayed the same as June, however any deviation from this could have a positive or negative effect on rate depending on the direction. Currently with Sterling struggling and on a negative streak I do think there is more chance of the rate falling than going up.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast or have a different question please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

 

Aussie slightly lower on RBA comments, where next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The Australian dollar is a little lower this morning as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that Unemployment was a key factor in any decision to raise interest rates and that for now rates would ‘remain steady’ at 1.5%. The raising and lowering of interest rates is a huge factor driving exchange rates and these comments alongside global events have seen the Aussie a little softer. If you are buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans around future trends is key to securing the best rates.

Global events are always something to bear in mind with the Australian dollar but more so at present. With the Australian dollar benefiting and suffering as global sentiments on markets rise and fall the latest developments with North Korea and the US dollar are key. Essentially the US dollar is rising because investors are concerned about the prospect of a nuclear war. As the Australian dollar is used by investors because of its high yield (higher interest rates) in times of uncertainty likes this investors will pull their funds and look to invest in ‘safer’ shores, eg the US dollar.

At present this is not overly pronounced, we are only talking a couple of cents off the more recent levels. However any deterioration in the North Korean situation could easily the AUD lose value sharply. There is some important US economic data due at 13.30 UK time today which might lead to some swings on USD/AUD which would in turn influence GBPAUD exchange rates.

All in all I expect the pound to continue to struggle but in the absence of any new fresh bad news and a slightly more dovish RBA, we could see GBPAUD gently drift higher. Next week’s UK Inflation data, Retail Sales, Unemployment and then Australia’s Unemployment data could all be market movers. If you have a transfer now or in 6 months, making some plans around up coming events is key to getting the most for your money.

Whether on amounts of 10,000 GBP or multi-millions, if you have a transfer we can secure preferential commercial rates of exchange and offer practical assistance with the timing of when to lock in a rate.

Thank you for reading and for more information please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

A warning from the RBA

The Australian dollar has been the fourth best performing currency out of the top 10 most traded currencies and is 10.2% stonger on average against all of the major currencies since that start of the year. However Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia announced last week that he believes the Australian dollar is overvalued and it’s only a matter of time until this starts to have a negative impact on the Australian economy. The Governor beleieves  GDP growth, inflation could start to fall and jobs might be at risk.

Friday morning the Reserve Bank of Australia released their latest monetary policy statement and the central bank reacted to the overvalued Australian dollar by cutting growth forecasts up until the end of the year by 0.5%. However the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that they are optimistic that economic growth would recover over the next 12 months as long as the currency did not continue to strengthen further.

For clients that are selling Australian dollars to buy pounds, I don’t believe the RBA are in the position to cut interest rates in a bid to devalue the Australian dollar however I expect at any opportunity the Governor of the RBA will talk down the currency in a bid to devalue it, a common practice known as jawboning. As exchange rates have improved 10 cents since the start of June and with such an uncertain time ahead this spike in the market may be worth taking advantage of.

If you are trading GBPAUD this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **