Tag Archives: australian dollar exchange rates

Sterling Falls Lower against Australian Dollar – Brexit Jitters (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen even lower against the Australian dollar with rates briefly falling below 1.73 for the GBP AUD pair. The Australian dollar outlook isn’t looking that great at the moment with the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Only yesterday the US agreed a further 25% tariff on Chinese imports worth $60 billion. China is likely to retaliate further and it has even been reported that President Donald Trump is considering putting tariffs on everything the US imports from China which equates to about $500 billion. Already the Chinese stock markets are taking the brunt of this and if China does move into a downturn then this could end up harming the Australian dollar. Australia’s major export iron ore is sent to China in large volumes for steel production and so any global slowdown could see demand for this commodity fall sharply proving negative for the Aussie as a commodity currency.

The Reserve bank of Australia will be releasing the Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow which could offer some more clues as to when then the central bank may look to raise interest rates again. Although the next move is anticipated to be upwards the next hike is likely to be someway off yet.

Despite the above the pound has still managed to fall considerably lower against the Australian dollar this week although this is down to Brexit uncertainty in the UK following comments from both Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Trade Secretary Liam Fox. Both have suggested there is a strong likelihood of a no deal Brexit which is spooking the markets and seeing the pound tumble. Until clarity is offered which is not likely to come until after the summer parliamentary recess the pound could see further losses. If the UK & EU cannot agree in the coming months on a withdrawal agreement then sterling is likely to fall lower.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to achieve the best rates for buying or selling dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Boosted on Stronger Retail Sales (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has been boosted following a jump higher in Australian retail sales which saw the best performance in over a year. The better data signals a buoyant consumer market which should lend support to the Australian economy. The numbers jumped 1.2% for the last quarter which is considerably higher than the 0.8% that was expected and welcome news in that Australia has also suffered with weak wage growth which has been squeezing pockets down under.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on Tuesday to discuss interest rates although there is unlikely to be any change at this meeting. Interest rates are currently set at 1.5% and whilst no change is expected any comments following the meeting from RBA Governor Philip Lowe could see a market reaction for the Aussie.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently hovering around 1.75 for the pair and testing the lower levels seen in its recent range. Much of the slide has stemmed from the uncertainty in the UK over Brexit in recent weeks. Despite an interest rate increase last week from the Bank of England the pound has actually fallen after Governor Mark Carney suggested that the chance of a no deal Brexit was uncomfortably high. The pound has been trading on the back foot following on from his comments which have made the markets uneasy hearing this from the top. Until clarity is offered the pound is likely to remain under pressure against the Aussie. There is currently a good opportunity to sell Australian dollars for pounds and any additional uncertainty on Brexit could see the pound weaken further. British politics have gone into sleep mode with the summer parliamentary recess but expect more volatility for the pound towards the end of the month.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the best rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Outlook Improves (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar could be set for a stronger period ahead following a series of better economic data helping support the Aussie. Unemployment data released this week arrived better than expected at 5.4% against consensus of 5.5% proving beneficial for the dollar. There is hope that the improvement in the labour market should start to feed through into higher wage growth which is something the Reserve Bank of Australian have been waiting for. The Aussie was also boosted on the back of higher consumer inflation expectations which are pointing to higher prices down under going forward. The data suggests that Australians expect prices for goods and services to climb higher and this is yet another key criteria the RBA are monitoring before any decision is made on potentially raising interest rates. Looking forward the dollar could see a better period ahead and clients looking to sell Australian dollars may see a good window to convert within the next couple of months.

Next week sees the RBA minutes for the meeting earlier this month and may offer clues as to the central banks thinking. Any suggesting the conversation is moving towards raising rates would be seen as good for the Aussie.

The US are widely tipped to impose more trade tariffs on China imminently and this could happen as soon as today. Australia for the moment appear to be relatively protected for this action due to the strong trade ties it has with China.

GBP AUD

There are two major drivers for the GBP AUD pair at present. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars should be aware of the Bank of England meeting next week as any change of tact from Governor Mark Carney could see the pound react. Any suggestion a rate hike could happen in August is likely to see rates for GBP AUD rally. Perhaps more importantly the Brexit withdrawal bill goes back to the House of Lords on Monday after there has been some disagreement in government as to the final wording of the text. This could prove tricky for the Prime Minister and any political tensions here could see the pound come under pressure. My long term view of GBP AUD is for considerable strength so sellers may wish to strike whilst the opportunity is still there.

For more information and guidance on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the right time then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Rally on Uncertainty for Commodity Currencies (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has weakened again after coming under pressure from the recent trade tariffs being imposed by China and the US. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is impacted negatively when there is a threat to global growth and that risk is very real in the current climate. With tit for tat trade tariffs being imposed by both nations there have been concerns that things could escalate and end up in a global trade war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping made a conciliatory speech this morning and even suggested opening trade which would include a reduction on import tariffs on vehicles and even hinted at encouraging imports. It follows a tweet from Trump yesterday which highlighted that China has been slapping on tariffs to the tune of 25% whilst in the US that tariff has only been 2.5%

I don’t think anyone is expecting a fully blown trade war but there is still some nervousness about the trade disputes which also moves into the realms of the NAFTA trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The Canadian dollar is another commodity currency also feeling the pinch and how Trump handles these negotiations will almost certainly have a knock on effect on the Aussie.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds could see some more positive movement as the trade disputes intensify but at some point an outcome should be reached and this should be beneficial for the Aussie. Rates for GBP AUD are hovering around 1.83 and are proving to be some of the best levels we have seen for some time. A rally in commodity prices on brighter global outlook could see material gains for the Aussie and reverse the good gains that have been witnessed.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and assistance in making a transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Australian Dollars with Pounds? (James Lovick)

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars have seen a great spike this week for the GBP AUD pair. Rates for GBP AUD have broken over 1.83 although the recent rally appears to be running out of steam. The pound has been given an excellent boost after agreement was reached between Britain and the EU on a transitional deal in the Brexit negotiations. The pound has benefitted from this as a degree of confidence for British business has been restored and this is seen as welcome news for the British economy.

Clients looking to buy Australian dollars would be wise to consider taking advantage of the current highs as spikes likes these in recent months have so far proved very short lived. There are a number of thorny issues which will resurface in the coming weeks and revolve around the Irish border and financial services.

If no agreement is reached over the Irish border and if a deal cannot be found which includes financial services for the city of London then the prospect of a no deal scenario suddenly starts to look considerably more likely. It is for this reason that any gains beyond these levels seem unlikely in the short term at least.

Clients looking to sell Australian dollars should see some spikes in the coming weeks and months although my view is that a deal on Brexit will be reached and this could see the pound perform very well. A move towards 1.90 for GBP AUD cannot be ruled out in these markets especially as the Brexit appears to have finally turned a corner with an apparent accord and will to move forward from all sides.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to make the most of these opportunities in this volatile period then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Breaks over 1.73 ahead of Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

GBP AUD exchange rates have seen an excellent boost with rates breaking over 1.73 for this pair today. There is currently an excellent opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars as present. The Australian dollar has come under pressure in recent weeks following the very dovish set of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

It is now very unlikely that there will be an interest rate increase any time soon. The earliest rate increase is likely to be some time at the end of 2018 or possibly even into 2019 which is helping see the Aussie weaken. Despite the strength of the Australian economy and bearing in mind that it has been over 25 years since the last recession down under the Australian dollar is seeing some weakness at present and this stems from the tone coming out of the RBA. It is well known that the RBA has raised concerns over the recent strength of the Aussie and has openly made clear its view that it would like to see the currency weaken and this appears to be filtering through into the exchange rate.

As far as GBP AUD is concerned the pound has also received a boost in the last week. The stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have helped lift sterling in what has been a very uncertain 16 months following the Brexit vote in June 2016. The Bank of England meet on Thursday and there is a strong chance that there will be a hike by 0.25% taking levels back up to 0.5%. Clients looking to buy Australian dollars with sterling may wish to consider locking in at the current better levels. There is a risk that if the central bank does not rise rates on Thursday then the pound could fall lower.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Why does the Australian dollar remain strong when iron ore prices continue to fall?

For regular readers they will be aware that Australia’s largest export Iron ore has a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. If iron ore prices fall the trend is for the Australian dollar to fall and vice versa. However, iron ore prices have been falling recent however Australian dollar exchange rates remain resilient. There are two main reasons for this.

Another trend that has an impact on Australian dollar exchange rates is the performance of emerging markets. When emerging stock markets outpace that of developed the Australian dollar also performs well. In recent months emerging markets have been performing well and forecasters expect this trend to continue. In addition, interest rate forecasters tend to disagree with the RBA as they believe the RBA will hike interest rates throughout 2018.

Commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia, I believe will continue to dictate exchange rates   therefore people with an upcoming Australian dollar exchange should continue to monitor developments.

Economic data releases that will impact Australian dollar exchange rates 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning the RBA are set to release their latest minutes. My personal opinion is that the Governor does not want to strengthen the Australian dollar any further and thats why he continues with the stance of interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if the minutes give any further insight.

Later in the week (Thursday) the latest unemployment numbers will be released. Over the last 3 years the Australian job market has gone from strength to strength and at present remains at a record low of 5.6%. The Governor of the RBA is wary that if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen the job market could be impacted however for the time being it looks like the unemployment numbers will remain at 5.6%.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Uncertain as Brexit Falters (James Lovick)

GBP AUD is being driven this week by developments in the Brexit negotiations which went into the fifth round of the negotiations this week. The pound has seen a hugely volatile few weeks after the change of stance from the Bank of England where an interest rate is expected in the coming months and the growing uncertainty over Brexit.

There is a 50% chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at the November meeting whilst the markets have fully priced in a rate hike by February 2018. A rate hike would be good news for sterling Australian dollar exchange rates but the uncertainly of Brexit is likely to keep the pound under pressure.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pound would be wise to consider all options as in these markets anything can happen very quickly. The stalemate with Brexit negotiations is something to be very aware of as any speeches from the Prime Minister or other EU leaders can have a direct impact on rates.

Those clients with looking to buy or sell Euros with Australian dollars could see an interesting few days after the Catalonia outcome expected very shortly.

Westpac consumer confidence down under is released overnight and can be seen as a good barometer on the state of the Australian economy and how resilient consumers are. The Reserve Bank of Australia have raised concerns over the strength of the Australian dollar so it may be a matter of time before the conversation moves towards additional stimulus or at least talk of a possible interest rate decrease. This is widely regarded as jawboning and can see the dollar react very quickly.

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Under Pressure as Brexit Tensions Escalate Further (James Lovick)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates last night as widely expected at 1.5%. The general feeling is that rates will not change until 2018 at the earliest but is important to highlight that there is a growing concern over the strength of the Australian dollar. A strong dollar is bad for Australia’s exports and the RBA has been known to jawbone the currency by making statements surrounding monetary policy that have the effect of moving the currency without the central bank actually having to take specific action. Looking forward we are likely to see such arm twisting from the RBA and the Australian dollar could see some weakness in the coming months.

GBP AUD exchange rates could also see a sizeable boost if Britain and the EU can get to a point of “sufficient progress” with the EU. As things stand the pound remains in a very weak position with all the uncertainty that surrounds Brexit. Any signs that there will be a future trading agreement should see the pound make considerable gains although we are not at this stage yet.

This week Jean Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier have both highlighted that more needs to be done. Expect more mileage from Brexit and there could be some good opportunities in the coming weeks for buyers and sellers alike. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see a small window of opportunity if tensions rise.

Australian retail sales numbers and trade balance data are released on Thursday and could create some volatility for the Aussie dollar. Data on Thursday focussing on the construction sector will also be keenly viewed as it may give some clues as to where the sector is heading. There have been ongoing concerns over Australia’s buoyant property market and it is expected to only be a matter of time before a wobble is seen at the top.

It is traditionally the construction and housing markets which are the first to fall ahead of a downturn. Whilst we may not be there yet any signs of a slowdown starting to happen down under could see the dollar weaken.

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

How will Australian interest rates impact the Aussie dollar?

Countries around the globe this year have been raising interest rates due to the global outlook improving. The Reserve Bank of Australia are one of the countries that have kept interest rates at record lows and many economists have predicted that a hike could occur sooner rather than later.

However Australian lender Westpac announced this week this think it is unlikely that interest rates will be raised until 2020 which could have major implication for Australian dollar exchange rates, if their predictions come true. Westpac’s theory is that it is unlikely that wages pressure will rise and consequently inflation will remain at current levels.

With most leading nations raising interest rates the Australian economy would be left behind and investment would continue to leave the Australian dollar which means buying currency would become more expensive.

However ANZ have a slightly different view and believe household debt is high, referring to the housing bubble in the major cities therefore they believe the Reserve Bank of Australia are likely to rise twice in 2018.

It just shows trying to predict Australian dollar exchange rates long term is very difficult however I believe the Governor will continue to monitor and if the Australian dollar exchange rates devalue further in the upcoming months the likelihood of an interest rate hike increases.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **