Tag Archives: australian dollar forecast

GBP/AUD moves to week high at 1.69 level (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/AUD rate has moved up to a week high despite a volatile period for Sterling as the political scene takes centre stage. Brexit talks are dictating the movement for Sterling and any sudden good news could start to see the rate move above the 1.70 level.

Australian Economy Strengthening

Despite a slow start to the year, which revealed low Retail slows and Housing construction falling the Australian economy seems to be picking up. Most of the weak 1st Quarter GDP can be put down to poor weather on the East coast of Australia having an enormous consequence on consumer behaviour and construction conditions. However now that Australia is through the storm business conditions appear to be improving with confidence once again returning.

In the longer term what this could mean for the Aussie is continued strength. Australia earlier this year took the record from the Netherlands for the longest consecutive time of never falling into recession. This is no mean feat and despite external economic pressures weighing down on the economy the condition are positive. China and the general commodity market dictate how Australia fairs from a trade perspective and as the markets have settled so has the Aussie.

Aussie sellers are certainly in a positive predicament and are unlikely to see selling levels much below 1.65 in my opinion. However any upticks for Aussie buyers using Sterling should consider the low 1.70’s as a buying level. The market is currently poised to go either way and with the UK struggling with uncertainty anything could change.

If you do have a requirement to change currency I’m confident I would be able to help you execute a transfer. If you would like to discuss the forecast above please feel free to email me at brf@currencies.co.uk. Working for a currency brokerage I am able to set rate alerts to make sure you’re trading at the right time at a level you’re happy with.

Buying and selling Australian Dollar rates finally expected to re-emerge from political limbo (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has been in a very visible limbo since the inconclusive election result, with Australian Dollar buyers and sellers waiting for news on where rate trends are expected to go moving forward.

That is not to say the interim period has been lacklustre and boring. Far from it. It is simply that economics has taken over in the meantime.

This has been the saga of interest rates which has been a dominant factor in currency value since last year, with the US being the first developed country to raise interest rates since the financial crisis.

Public disagreements between the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and members of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee over whether to raise interest rates in the UK or not has seen the Pound behaving like a yo-yo in recent weeks, but with little overall change.

The deciding factor will be the official formation of a minority Government next week, with official voting on their manifesto to go through Thursday-Friday to conclude the month of June.

The fact that any resolution seems likely to help the Pound given the hints noted recently on currency markets should be in the forefront of anyone with a Australian Dollar requirement’s thought process. The question at this point arguably is just how much the Pound will rise up against the Australian Dollar next week, and not if. 

In this context Australian Dollar buyers do not seem to have the same level of urgency as Australian Dollar sellers. You can secure exchange rates for AUD/GBP beofre interbank rates are expected rise back above 1.70 by contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk. Even if your requirement is not until the end of the year, you can pre-book your currency at current attractive levels using the tools available at a specialist currency brokerage. There is not additional cost to pre-book.

I strongly recommend that if you have a currency requirement to buy Australian Dollars to contact me again on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your AUD return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you a significant sum on a prospective transfer.

Buying Australian rates boosted by softer Brexit murmurs (Joshua Privett)

The state of limbo we’ve been suffering with Sterling this week has show tentative signs of breaking as we head into the weekend, with buying Australian Dollar exchange rates rallying during Friday morning trading.

This prolonged period without clarification on Government policy towards such a sensitive issue as Brexit has left currency investors unsure what to do. There has been such little buying and selling activity involved around the Pound that GBP/AUD has been moored in the high 1.60’s since Monday.

This should all change next week.

The Government’s manifesto will be debated on in Parliament next week to be voted on on Thursday/Friday, before the close of June. Hints of a softer Brexit with Theresa May’s speech at the EU summit today have markets less concerned at the prospect of a tumultuous exit for the UK, and therefore Sterling saw a comforting boost in the morning.

End of week financial flows however halted Sterling’s rally. At the end of the week capital tends to be allocated in the more stable currencies. A camp which Sterling understandably hasn’t occupied for some time. So you tend to see Sterling selling off in favour of the likes of the US Dollar and Swiss France, with the Pound losing out through decreased demand in general.

But if it wasn’t for these clockwork trading patterns before the weekend, AUD sellers would have seen glimpses of what is expected to happen next week. A consolidation of this limbo period since the election, and confirmation of any softer approaches for the Brexit should both play well for Sterling’s value in the eyes of currency markets. Both have a high likelihood of occurring next week, even the Brexit Minister David Davis said as much.

So whilst Australian Dollar sellers are seeing higher urgency to act sooner rather than later in the final week of June, Australian Dollar buyers may consider waiting until the end of next week to secure their AUD purchase.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar based currency requirement should contact me over the weekend whilst financial markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

Pound to Aussie Dollar range-bound, but where to next? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has been trading between 1.66 and 1.68 for a few days now, as the pair appear to have consolidated below 1.70 in the wake of the disappointing election outcome for Sterling bulls.

As of yet there is no official agreement between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) although speculation is mounting as to the amount the Conservatives will have to pay for the coalition, with some speculating amounts of up to £2bn.

Moving forward I’m expecting any news of the coalition to have a potential impact on the Pound to Aussie Dollar buying rate, which is where keeping in touch with us can really help as we’re able to act whenever there’s a big short term move.

Brexit negotiations are now also underway, which is another issue for the government to deal with along with the ongoing Grenfell Tower tragedy and the recent terrorist issues.

On the other hand the Aussie Dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks as the Chinese economy appears to be slowing, which is a negative for the value of AUD as the Australian and Chinese economies are key trading partners.

With both currencies coming pressure for different reasons, it could be that the weaker of the two that results in further price movement for the GBP/AUD pair.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBPAUD exchange rates fall to a 8 week low! (Dayle Littlejohn)

Pound vs Australian dollar exchange rates have reached an 8 week low this week due to sterling devaluing and the Australian dollar strengthening. To put this into monetary terms over the last 2 weeks exchange rates have dropped 5 1/2 cents which means a 200,000 Australian dollar purchase is now £3,850 more expensive.

Starting with the Australian dollar GDP numbers have remained resilient this month, and positive business sales growth coupled with increased consumer spending has strengthened the Australian dollar. In addition the Philip Lowe (Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia) also commented earlier in the week that the global economy is in better shape than previous years which is helping the commodity currencies. This was a surprise statement as iron ore prices continue to remain under pressure due to a slow down in China.

As for the pound the Governor of the Bank of England gave a dovish statement yesterday and confirmed the UK are not in the position to raise interest rates anytime soon even though three members of the Bank of England voted to hike rates only 6 days ago. Furthermore Brexit negotiations have begun and are putting pressure on sterling as the market is nervous about a deal being struck in regards to the divorce settlement.

In my opinion it is impossible to predict how Brexit negotiations will impact the pound. Positive news will strengthen the pound negative will do the opposite. I am optimistic that deal will be struck eventually however other traders on the floor are not. If you are purchasing pounds with Australian dollars or vice versa I would recommend getting in touch and I will keep you up to date with regular information until you are ready to convert drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

Sterling tumbles after Mark Carney Speech (Ben Fletcher)

The Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney yesterday delivered a speech saying that he doesn’t think an interest rate hike is imminently on the cards. The comments followed a vote by the economic monetary policy committee last week where the members voted 3-5. 8 members voted for the decision and this is the first time in over 5 years 3 members have voted for a hike. The vote last week caused a jump in the market however that was lost yesterday.

The comments yesterday had an instant effect on the market causing nearly a 1% drop in the GBP/AUD rate. Since the final weeks of the UK election and the subsequent hung Parliament result the Aussie has gained nearly 10 cents in strength against sterling, moving the rate to 1.66. In my opinion I don’t see the rate returning to the 1.60 level last seen in March and any Aussie Dollar sellers should consider capitalising on the last two weeks movements.

Where Next for GBP/AUD?

Now that the Brexit negotiations have started there is potential for the markets to move at an instant. David Davis the UK’s Brexit Minister suggested the talks got off to a positive start and that he was hopeful of much of the same in a press conference earlier this week. The main market influencer will be the announcement of a trade deal between the UK and the EU, the moment that comes Sterling’s fortunes could change.

If you’re interested in finding more information about the markets I am able to assist by keeping you up to date with any market. I work for a company that has been in business for 18 years and would be surprised if I am not able to help you make a significant saving on your currency transfers. If you would like to ask any questions please send Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect next for GBPAUD currency rates?

Tonight is the latest RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Meeting Minutes which will provide further insight into the latest thoughts from the RBA with regard to the relative strength or weakness of the Australian dollar. If you are looking to make a currency exchange buying or selling the pound or Australian dollar then understanding the latest news here is critical to what kind of rates you might expect in the future. In assisting my clients with the timing of any transaction as well as the best rates of exchange this release will be critical to understanding what might happen next on the rates.

The pound has clearly weakened following political uncertainty in the UK, but news from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) could easily change that. Generally speaking the market is predicting the outlook for the RBA to be one where they are gently leaning towards hiking interest rates although this is unlikely to be anytime soon. If you are buying Australian dollars in the future this would potentially mean the transfer becomes more expensive, if you are selling AUD to buy the pound, the rate could get better.

Timing is everything in the currency market and understanding what my or may not influence your exchange rate is key. With almost ten years of experience assisting clients looking to buy and sell the Australian dollar I am well placed to offer my clients up to date news on what will impact their exchange rate.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars for pounds, it is fair to say a weaker pound could see this level slip lower into the 1.60’s. However the Queen’s speech and uncertainty over the UK election final result this week reminds us that events can quickly changes and lead to unexpected results.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with your transfer.

Political Uncertainty weighs down the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Little chance of recovery for the pound until a government is in place

The UK is currently in political limbo. I think there is little chance of a significant advance for sterling against the Australian dollar until we have a government in place. A coalition between the conservatives and the DUP is yet to be finalised and the Queens speech has now been delayed until 21st June out of respect to those effected by the glenfell tower tragedy. This is when her majesty is expected to formally announce the new government. There is the probability news will filter through in the press before hand, when the UK has a government in place I would expect a spike in Sterling value.

Brexit Negotiations to commence on Monday

Brexit negotiations will be a key factor in sterling value for the foreseeable future. The enormity of the talks should not be underestimated. Key topics will be the status of EU nationals and Britons who are settled elsewhere in the EU, the price the UK will have to pay to leave and most importantly how trade will continue for the UK after exit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

The minutes if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)) meetings are published on Tuesday, two weeks after the interest rate decision . The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differing opinions. They also announce how the members of the committee voted in regards to a rate hike. Keep an eye on this event as it can give an indication to monetary policy moving forward, so can cause volatility on GBP/AUD.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the optimum levels of exchange for a currency transfer then I am happy to assist.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current provider already in place I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you I can be contacted  (Daniel Johnson) directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you. Thank you for reading.

Buying Australian Dollar rates showing tentative drops following election (Joshua Privett)

At the time of writing we are about 12 hours away from global financial markets opening once more after the weekend, and will buying Australian Dollar exchange rates continue to fall after the election results?

When the exit polls came out late on Thursday the Pound fell sharply against all major currencies. GBP/AUD fell as low as 1.67 in the hours that followed into Friday, with uncertainty at what a Hung Parliament may bring driving down demand for the Pound, and therefore cutting away at it’s value.

With the Conservatives able to form a minority government with their informal affiliation with the DUP, the Pound then recovered, with GBP/AUD up to 1.69 at the close of play before the weekend.

However, Australian Dollar buyers are not out of the woods yet.

Tomorrow the Conservative legislative agenda has to be voted in, and Labour are desperate to use this as a platform to call for another election and undermine Conservative authority. We will not know until then what concessions are being added to keep the DUP in side, and whether this will play well within the whole of the Conservative party members.

Markets will also react to the content as well. Will this change the Brexit agenda? To what extent will the Commons challenge Theresa May’s current mandate? Given that all agendas, policies and laws now have to be voted on, will tomorrow’s actions paint the picture of a cumbersome and ineffectual Government? We will know the market’s reaction by the afternoon.

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Australian Dollar currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Sterling falls due to hung parliament (Daniel Johnson)

Hung Parliament – Where will GBP/AUD move next?

The conservatives came in well below expectations unable to win a majority victory which has caused a considerable weakening for the pound against the Australian dollar. GBP/AUD now sits at 1.6850. I would be surprised to see further significant losses. Australian Dollar sellers it is time to fill your boots.

Whitehall will be frantic today with promises being made in the attempt to form a coalition. I would expect Sterling strengthen when a coalition is formed, the combination of the coalition will determine by how much. If however Corbyn manages to form a minority government,  we could potentially see further falls as this could be deemed negative for the UK economy and Brexit negotiations are predicted to be more problematic. This is worrying as Sir Ivan Rogers former EU commissioner resigned due to unrealistic time scales for exit. He thinks it could take up to ten years for a full exit, negotiations need to run  decisively and effectively to avoid the process being lengthened. Parties with differing views could cause the process to become more troublesome.

It seems the most likely outcome would be the conservatives gaining power with the support of Northern Irish unionist parties. I think this would have a positive effect on Sterling. When the Conservatives gained power with the Lib Dems in 2010 GBP/EUR rose by 5 cents.We experienced a hung parliament in 2010 and this lasted for five days, this could give some indication of how long the UK will be stuck in limbo.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.