Tag Archives: australian dollar

Sterling falls against the Australian dollar due to meaningful vote cancelled

In recent weeks the pound has been falling dramatically against the Australian dollar and this trend continued throughout yesterday trading session as Theresa May cancelled the meaningful vote in Parliament. Furthermore the Prime Minister made a statement about why she had cancelled the vote and the general consensus was because she was going to lose and therefore she was going back to Brussels this week for further guarantees. Following the statement in the House of Commons Theresa May answered questions from fellow MPs and the Prime Minister came under further pressure and this was represented in the exchange rates.

GBPAUD dropped throughout the day from 1.7725 to 1.7475. To put this into monetary value a AU$400,000 transfer now costs an additional £3,300 compared to this time yesterday. 

The Prime Minister has now flown to Hague to discuss Brexit with Mr Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Mr Rutte has been known to give an extra helping hand for the Prime Minister and this is why I believe this is her first trip. Thereafter she is set to travel to Berlin to meet to meet Angela Merkel and then hold talks with the European Commission.

If its the case the Prime Minister fails to receive further reassurances from the EU, it looks like her days are numbered. If the Prime Minister was ousted or resigns a leadership contest would take at least a couple of weeks especially over the Christmas period. therefore I expect this would put further pressure on sterling and GBPAUD would fall further.

Looking further ahead I expect the pound will continue to decline against the Australian dollar and fall to the low 1.70s or even the high 1.60s. However if the Prime Minister manages to get further concession which is extremely unlikely the pound could rebound significantly making Australian dollars cheaper to buy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast: Brexit vote to impact GBPAUD exchange rates

The Pound has had a very good week against the Australian Dollar but has started to struggle towards the end of the week in anticipation of next week’s Brexit vote in parliament.

MPs have been debating for the last few days over the current deal and at the moment it appears highly unlikely that this deal will get approved when the vote takes place on 11th December.

Earlier this week the government were found in contempt and then were forced to release the legal documents advising on Brexit.

Theresa May has been busily campaigning in favour of trying to convince MPs to vote through this current deal but according to a number of different media reports this is highly unlikely to get the votes needed to approve the deal on offer.

If Theresa May does not get the votes needed there are a number of different alternatives as to what may happen next week. Some have suggested that she may even stand down but owing to her bullish personality I think that she will stay as long as she can.

The next option available to Theresa May is to go back to Brussels on 13th December to try and see if she can renegotiate alternative terms to that on offer but this will be very difficult as the UK and European Union have already agreed this current deal in principle so they may not wish to budge at this late stage.

Over this weekend Downing Street has denied claims that Theresa May could even delay the vote in an attempt to avoid losing. Rumours are circulating that the Prime Minister is planning to go back to the European Union to try and get a better deal before the vote is held.

At the moment the current deal on offer is struggling to get the support it needs to be approved by MPs so if May manages to change some of the terms this could help to provide support to the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can offer you a bank beating exchange rate as well as helping you with the timing. 

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Brexit Impact papers push Sterling lower against the Australian Dollar

After a strong start to the trading session yesterday, Sterling exchange rates have seen their fortunes reverse since yesterday afternoon when Brexit Impact papers were released by both the Government as well as the Bank of England.

Both releases suggested that the UK will be worse off by carrying out the Brexit with the BoE outlining a number of worse case scenarios for the UK economy in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Their report outlined the potential for the Pound to lose 25% of its value against both the Euro and the US Dollar which would put Sterling below parity vs both of these key currencies. Property market falls of 30% were also contained within this worst case scenario Brexit report as well as unemployment potentially rising to 7.5% and since this report we’ve seen a sell-off of the Pound’s value which has accelerated this morning.

After almost reaching 1.77 yesterday we’ve seen the pair drop below 1.75 this morning which goes to show how much the currency has been impacted by these reports. It’s also worth noting that the Australian Dollar has lost value recently owing to the sharp drop in the value of iron ore which is a key export of the Australia’s. Iron ore prices have dropped by 9% this week which represents the largest drop in over a year. The rhetoric between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders has also ramped up with concerns of a global slowdown owing to the trade war once again impacting currencies such as AUD’s.

Economic data releases are light for the remainder of the week between the UK and Australia so it’s likely that Brexit talks will remain the main driver of currency fluctuations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Aussie Dollar comes under pressure as US-China tensions resurface, and fears of a global slowdown take hold

The Australian Dollar has come under pressure in early trading today, although the fall has a lot further to go to wipe out the gains made by AUD over the past month and a half. Against the US Dollar the currency has lost over 1% over the past 24-hours as investors have piled into safe haven currencies and taken funds out of riskier currencies such as the Aussie.

Over in the US the Federal Reserve Bank has indicated plans for a less aggressive monetary policy next year than the markets had previously anticipated, and signs of a global slowdown with stock markets still selling off is concerning financial markets hence the sell-off.

AUD exchange rates haven’t been helped by comments out of the White House yesterday either. In the lead up to the G20 meeting next week there have been hopes of a truce between US President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but yesterday as the White House said Beijing has failed to alter its ‘unfair’ practices. As China is such a key trading partner of Australia’s this is negative news for AUD which perhaps explains yesterday’s sell-off of the Aussie Dollar.

There are no economic data releases out of Australia this week, so I expect the GBP/AUD rate to continue to be driven by Brexit related updates which are coming through thick and fast at the moment. UK PM, Theresa May will be in Brussels today to discuss the Brexit agreement text with EU leaders for the first time since the text was announced last week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Australian Dollar loses ground against most major currencies as trade war tension rises

Australian Dollar exchange rates have dropped away against all major currencies in treading today as tensions between the U.S and China rose once again over the weekend.

The Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar topped the weakest major currencies of the day and much of this can be pinned down to the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

As many regular readers will be aware any heightened tensions between the U.S and China can lead to weakness for the Australian Dollar, as the Australian economy can be susceptible to bad news from China.

 RBA meeting minutes tomorrow morning

We have seen a slight improvement in certain areas of the Australian economy recently, however most analysts do not believe that there has been enough to warrant a change in stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding any interest rate changes. Interest rates have remained stable in Australia for a long time now and this is also another reason why the Australian Dollar has lost ground against a number of major currencies over the course of the year.

An higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors as it means they are offered a greater level of return for their money, and with other central banks such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S raising rates on numerous occasions over the past year or so the Australian Dollar has been somewhat left behind.

Should the RBA take a more positive tone in their meeting minutes tomorrow then we may see a little strength back for the Australian Dollar, should their stance remain the same then focus will be back on any political news, such as the trade wars and for those that have an interest in the Australian Dollar against the pound then Brexit and Theresa May will be key.

Should you have the need to buy or sell a large volume of Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to contact you personally.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – GBP AUD Crashes after Brexit Secretary Resigns (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have crashed dramatically with rates falling by more than 2% to the lows of 1.75/1.76 after a brutal day in British politics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reached an agreement with the EU over the draft withdrawal agreement but support from her cabinet is not unanimous. So far and in a single day there were seven government resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominc Raab which sent the pound tumbling. GBP to AUD rates now face yet another volatile day as the markets prepare for more government resignations and a possible leadership challenge.

Brexit supporter and chair of the backbench European Research Group has called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and believes that enough letters to the 1922 Committee will be reached in the comings days to trigger a vote of no confidence. The Prime Minister must also put in place a new Brexit Secretary and it has been reported that Environment Secretary Michael Gove has turned down the offer. Where that leaves Michael Gove is less clear and many are expecting a resignation which would add more pressure on Theresa May and further weakness for the GBP to AUD pair. The outlook is so uncertain in British politics that there is room for further weakness for the pound against the Australian dollar in the short term.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has been boosted after strong employment data down under pointing to health consumer spending. A further 42,300 jobs were created in October which was significantly higher than the September reading. This will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia which has held concerns over weak wage growth and low inflation. The belief is that an improving labour market will feed through to higher wages which will allow the central bank to start raising interest rates. This is starting to look likely for 2019 with a good chance we may see the first rate hike in August next year.

There are likely to be major movements in these coming days. For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian unemployment figures due out tomorrow – Trade wars still key

Tomorrow we have the release of Australian unemployment figures and expectations are for the unemployment figures to have dropped off a little from 5% to 5.1% for October. This would be in stark contract to the latest release in New Zealand where the release came out at 3.9% recently, the best unemployment figures seen there since 2008.

Should the figure have risen a little as analysts are expecting then we may see a little weakness for the Australian Dollar in early trading on Wednesday, but in my own opinion I feel that political issues around the world are still the most important factor for the Australian Dollar against most major currencies.

First and foremost we have Donald Trump and his trade wars with China, one moment it looks like Trump is willing to compromise and broker a deal with his Chinese counterpart and then in the next breath he seems to go back into attack mode, aiming to lower tariffs for the U.S and to heap lots of them on China. With China being a major importer of Australian goods and services and a large volume of tourist dollars spent in Australia any move from Trump that is seen as negative for China tends to weaken the Australian Dollar and any positive vibes that come from the talks can give the Australian Dollar strength.

For anyone that has an interest in Sterling against the Australian Dollar, buying or selling then the next 36 hours are key. A Brexit deal appears to be edging ever closer however both sides are ‘cautiously optimistic’ which suggests that although a deal could be initially agreed by chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s latest deadline of tomorrow evening, if that does happen then GBP/AUD should surge through the 1.80 level however should talks fall through then we may be looking at trading closer to 1.76.

If you are in the position that you need to exchange Australian Dollars into or out of any major currency and you would appreciate my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you. Not only could I act as your eyes and ears on the market but we pride ourselves on getting the very top rates of exchange too. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) for a no obligation chat about your current position and I will get in touch with you personally. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask to be put through to Daniel Wright, quoting Australian Dollar Forecast.

Does May have the backing to get her Brexit Plan through in January? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – GBP/AUD again has fallen below the key resistance point 1.80. This was due to news Theresa May lacks support from the cabinet to push her Brexit plan through. It seems that every time the UK on the cusp of a deal there is a problem created not only from Brussels, but also from inner fighting within parliament.

It seems the Chequers plan was reluctantly backed in the first place due to the need for progress and the threat of a no deal. The backing of the deal has been described as a deeply undesirable compromise. A minster said that most of those who backed the deal did so “with a very heavy heart”.

Two cabinet ministers last night announced on the BBC that there is little chance that  the current deal would get through parliament and the Theresa May still pursuing agreement on the is deal could be considered “self harming”.

Even if a deal is agreed with Brussels the deal must then be voted through by the cabinet in January.

The EU withdrawal Act of 2018 highlights that the government must announce before 21st January  if it can or cannot reach a deal. If the date in not met the government will have 5 days to make a statement outlining how the UK wishes to proceed and subsequent arrangements for the motion to be passed through parliament.

Despite all this news I am still of the opinion a deal will be reached despite all the in house fighting, the consequences of not getting a deal is simply too great. Talks are intensifying and if there is solid news on the Irish Border I think we could see a Sterling rally. If you are looking at risk reward and are selling the Australian Dollar I would not hesitate to take advantage of current levels at 1.78. Pre-Brexit GBP/AUD was 2.20, although I do not expect a rally of this extent I think it is important to remember Sterling is chronically undervalued.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

 

 

 

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Fall Below 1.80 (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen lower against the Australian dollar with rates for the GBP AUD pair falling below 1.80 once again. What happens in the US in these coming weeks and months is likely to have a big impact on the Australian dollar. With the US midterm elections out of the way it will be interesting to see how investors react to the news and if the results have an impact on whether he is able to implement his planned policies of increased expenditure in the US.

More importantly the future trade policy from the White house especially with China will be a major driver for GBP AUD rates. There have been noises that a meeting between China and the US could bear fruits for a future trade deal. Investors are concerned that an escalating trade war could have a negative impact on the Australian dollar as funds move to the safety of the US dollar. If an agreement can be reached though then this should benefit the Australian dollar going forward as confidence is restored in the commodity currency.

The Brexit negotiations have advanced in recent weeks which has helped boost the pound against the Australian dollar. Reports are filtering through in the media that we could be days away from a Brexit deal. Expect a few more weeks of heightened volatility though as any deal will have to be put before parliament which could make for a bumpy ride.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet this evening and any clues as to when the central bank next raises interest rates is likely to see added volatility for the dollar. The US Federal Reserve are still set to hike interest rates again this year and a meeting is being held this evening. The markets are expecting a rate hike to come in December although anything is possible this evening. As the differential widens between US interest rates and rates down under there is likely to be more weakness for the Australian dollar.

For assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Retail Sales down under disappoint but AUD remains resilient, where to next for the GBP/AUD pair?

Despite some disappointing data being released in the early hours of this morning, the Aussie Dollar has remained resilient against the Pound even though its dropped off of it’s 1-month high against the US Dollar.

Retail Sales rose just 0.2% through September which was below expectations, and now there are concerns that 3rd quarter economic growth could disappoint. The GDP figure for the 3rd quarter will be released in early December so I expect economic data releases covering the Australian economies health to be followed closely. Despite the softening against the US Dollar as a result of this morning’s early release the AUD/USD rate has still strengthened by over 1.5% throughout this week.

The Aussie Dollar has also gained value vs the Pound this week although not quite to the same extent as AUD/USD. Moving forward the pair are most likely to be driven more by the Pound’s value and how its impacted by the Brexit developments. Sterling has strengthened against a raft of currencies over the past few days after a number of positive updates have been released. On Wednesday the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab suggested that the deal could be in place by November the 21st, which saw a spike in GBP exchange rates as hopes of the deal being wrapped up during this month had waned after talks stalled during October.

Then on Thursday morning news broke that there is a deal in principle for the UK to retain access to EU financial markets after the Brexit has taken place, and this also pushed GBP exchange rates higher which is in my opinion why the Aussie Dollars gains against the Pound this week haven’t been as substantial as the they have vs the USD.

If you’re planning on making a currency transfer involving the pairs discussed today, and would like an opinion on the rates or an update if they move dramatically, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.