Tag Archives: australian economy

AUD Forecast – Will Sterling’s Recent Upturn Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates are trading around 1.78 on the exchange this morning, with the AUD seemingly finding support around this level.

The Pound has found a foothold above 1.75 over recent weeks, with investor confidence seemingly returning to the Pound despite the on-going uncertainty around Brexit.

Whilst the Pound has made positive inroads of late, the current trend may not be sustainable as we head into a key phase of the Brexit talks.

Poor UK Manufacturing data yesterday did little to further boost Sterling’s value, with the Pound struggling to make any impact above 1.78 against the AUD.

With the global markets seemingly improving , there is also an argument to say that investors risk appetite will improve alongside it. Usually this means than they will move funds from the safer haven currencies such as the USD & CHF, into more risky and potentially higher yielding currencies such as the AUD or NZD.

It is interesting to note that the USD has declined of late in line with this theory and it could be that the AUD is in line for a positive run over the coming weeks.

Whilst the currency markets are extremely difficult to dissect, particularly in times of uncertainty, I am not convinced that Sterling will continue on an upwards aggressive curve.

The Australian economy continues to perform well and being a commodity based economy, relies heavily on the export of its vast supply of raw materials. With its largest trading partner China showing no signs of an economic slowdown, this is likely to help support the Australian economy and ultimately the AUD over the coming months.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not want to see the AUD’s value soar, of fear of alienating their trade partners but this undertone is likely to be offset by the on-going concerns surrounding Brexit and its outcome.

These concerns were laid bare by a leaked Government report earlier this week, which indicated that the UK will be worse off after Brexit. The report covered all three Brexit scenarios, including a free trade agreement, access to the single market, or the worst case scenario of no deal being reached at all.

The Government were quick to react and said the findings were only a preliminary assessment but the news is hardly likely to inspire confidence amongst investors.

Therefore despite the Pounds positive run  further pressure over the coming days and weeks is a distinct possibility, as  Brexit talks starting to dominate the headlines once more.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD  currency transfers to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

FED interest rate decision to impact Australian dollar exchange rates

This evening the Federal Reserve (United States Central Bank) will release their latest interest rate decision and for the last time Chairlady of the FED Janet Yellen will give her last press conference as Chair. For clients that are buying or selling Australian dollar it’s important to understand that decisions made in the US have a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates.

In recent weeks most major currencies have benefited from the demise in the US. President Donald Trump at present is trying to pull the US out of NAFTA which is the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. These negotiations are on going and could take 12 months. Nevertheless the US dollar has lost value and the Australian dollar has benefited.

The FED decision tonight could indicate whether the UK will raise interest 3 times this like predicted at the beginning of the year or if forecasts have changed. Personally I expect this release to weaken the US dollar further which could benefit most G10 currencies. Later in the week Non farm payroll numbers, which is the amount of jobs created in the US will be released at 1.30pm and this release could also have an impact on exchange rates.

The next key data release to look out for in regards to the Australian economy is the interest rate decision on the 6th. Inflation numbers showed a slight improvement in January, however the Reserve Bank of Australia are unlikely to hint towards any rate hike anytime sooner. Therefore I don’t expect this event to help provide strength for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

 

GBP/AUD – Aussie struggles against Sterling (Dainel Johnson)

Can Sterling’s rally continue?

We have seen some very positive retail sales figures from down under of late, which had caused GBP/AUD to drop as low as 1.71. I am of the opinion the increase in retail sales was an anomaly due to Black Friday and the release of Apple’s iphone X. I would expect a significant drop on the next release.

Sterling has rebounded however, following a very optimistic outlook from Lord Jim O’Neill, economist and former chairman of Goldman Sachs. He has the firm belief that the UK economic back bone is strong and will recover from Brexit in a quick fashion. There has also been news from the Dutch and Spanish finance minsters that they are keen to have a close relationship with the UK post Brexit. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor made similar comments, but this had a more significant effect on GBP/AUD as Germany is considered the engine room of the EU and they are heavily reliant on the UK for their imports.

The US Treasury secretary, Stephen Mnuchin also has stated the US will be forthcoming with a trade deal.  Be wary of thinking the pound will continue to make gains against the Aussie however with phase two of Brexit talks shortly to commence the pound could well take a hit. Talks are set to be elongated and problematic. Both Davis and Barnier are at logger heads on several issues and this does not bode well for the pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC. If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

AUD Forecast – AUD Under Pressure Despite On-going Brexit Concerns (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s positive run continued throughout Wednesday’s trading, moving back above 1.76 against the AUD.

The Pound has been well supported across the board, bringing with it some much needed optimism ahead of the next round of Brexit talks.

The AUD has found it difficult to make any real impact, with the Pound now likely to find plenty of support between 1.70-1.75.

Whilst the current rates may still not look overly attractive based on historical levels, the Pound has certainly seemed to gain something of a foothold over recent weeks. We must continually  remind ourselves that the goals posts have shifted since the Brexit decision. As a result I feel that the current spike offers some value to those clients looking to exchange GBP/AUD positions.

This week’s positive move is even more surprising when you consider how poor the UK Retail Sales figures were on Friday and clients have been asking what the catalyst was behind this positive spike.

Whilst it’s impossible to give a universal answer, the upturn at least in some part could be attributed, at least in some part, due to a report by the former Conservative Treasury minister Lord Jim O’Neill.

Despite being a vigorous Remain campaigner, he argued that Britain “should prepare for a much more economically optimistically 2018”, citing better than predicated global growth as the reason.

He believes that Britain’s growth forecasts will be upgraded, due to China, the US and Europe showing increased economic activity.

Whilst this view is unlikely to be shared by all, the Pound seems to have benefited as a result.

Looking at the Australian economy and early year financial reports have indicated that the Australian economy is set to continue to grow in 2018. If this prediction comes to fruition it will be Australia’s 27th year of uninterrupted growth.

This in itself is an impressive statistic, especially when you consider there have been at least three major global recessions during this period.

Whilst the Australian economy is of course not impenetrable, it continues to benefit from high levels of skilled immigration and a booming mining industry, which helps to support their continued growth.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

AUD Forecast – Where Next for GBP/AUD Exchange rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained flat over the past week, with Sterling struggling to make any impact above 1.73.

Despite the resistance its facing around this threshold, the current levels are still attractive levels based on the recent history of the pair.

The EU referendum result has changed the landscape indefinitely, with GBP/AUD rates trading between 1.5960 & 1.7950 since the Brexit vote.

The current buy prices are far closer to the high than low of this period and this should be considered by any clients holding Sterling and in need of an AUD purchase over the coming weeks.

Whilst I do not anticipate the Pound to put pressure on 1.75 under current market conditions, it has at least gained a foothold above 1.70 and I personally would be tempted to protect any currency positions above this level. The markets seem to be waiting for the next key driving factor to surface and this could ultimately be linked

To the on-going Brexit negotiations, with phase two talks set to get underway shortly. These will run until October, so personally I don’t expect to see any major breakthroughs anytime soon.

Considering how prolonged and arduous phase one talks were, I am not partially confident as we head into the next round of negotiations.

Looking at the Australian economy and early year financial reports have indicated that the Australian economy is set to continue to grow in 2018. If this prediction comes to fruition it will be Australia’s 27th year of uninterrupted growth.

This in itself is an impressive statistic, especially when you consider there have been at least three major global recessions during this period.

Whilst the Australian economy is of course not impenetrable, it continues to benefit from high levels of skilled immigration and a booming mining industry, which helps to support their continued growth.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Key economic data releases which will impact AUDGBP / GBPAUD exchange rates this week

For clients that converted Australian dollars into sterling or sterling into Australian dollars last week, both sets of clients were provided opportunity which many of clients took advantage of.

Thursday morning Retail Sales numbers were released for Australia and the numbers exceeded expectation which provided an extra cent for clients holding Australian dollars and purchasing sterling. Furthermore the tides turned Friday afternoon when reports were suggesting the Spanish and Dutch finance ministers had agreed that they seek the softest Brexit deal as possible, which is good news for the UK economy and consequently sterling.

This week the first key release which will impact GBPAUD exchange rates is the UK inflation numbers Tuesday morning. Forecasts are suggesting a slight rise to 3.2%. If this occurs more questions will be asked of the Bank of England, and consequently I expect this could provide a boost for the pound. However medium term forecasts are suggesting that inflation will drop over the next 6 months below 3% so I don’t expect a reaction from the central bank.

Later in the week (Thursday morning) Australia release Employment change, Unemployment rate and Participation rate numbers. Forecasts are suggesting all three releases are close to previous therefore if this is the case this could be a non event. However regular readers will be aware that Unemployment rate numbers can have a major impact on future monetary policy therefore keep a close eye on this release.

GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 cents in 6 weeks, and with Brexit negotiations on going, many leading forecasters having a difference of opinion in regards to the future of the Australian dollar, I expect exchange rates will continue to fluctuate. Therefore if I were converting GBPAUD exchange rates I would look to use a limit order, which allows you to set a target rate and if the market spikes to that rate our automatic system will buy the currency on your behalf.

For more information on how I can help you save money on your currency transfer feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

AUD Forecast – What Next for GBP/AUD Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have spiked overnight, with the Pound hitting 1.7262 at the high.

The pair has remained extremely range bound of late, with little indication that the Pound will make any sustainable move up to, or through 1.75.

Similarly, it seems to be finding plenty of support above 1.70 as the markets wait for the next key driving factor to show itself. This could well be linked to any media reports regarding Brexit negotiations, with phase two talks set to get underway shortly. These will run until October, so personally I don’t expect to see any major breakthroughs anytime soon.

Considering how prolonged and arduous phase one talks were, I am not partially confident as we head into the next round of negotiations.

This could put pressure back on the pound and it may be wise to protect any short-term GBP/AUD positions ahead of these talks.

Looking at the Australian economy and early year financial reports have indicated that the Australian economy is set to continue to grow in 2018. If this prediction comes to fruition it will be Australia’s 27th year of uninterrupted growth.

This in itself is a quite staggering statistic, especially when you consider there have been at least three major global recessions during this period.

Whilst the Australian economy is of course not impenetrable, it is clear they are benefiting from high levels of skilled immigration and a booming mining industry, which helps to support their continued growth.

The issues they could face are rising house prices in both Sydney & Melbourne, which are becoming are becoming unsustainable. This is making them unaffordable for the majority of residents, which in turn could have a negative impact on the Australian economy and ultimately the AUD in the coming months.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Retail Sales data strengthens the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Will Retail Sales data continue to be positive?

We recently witnessed a sharp fall in retail sales down under. It was the sharpest fall in four years and alarm bells were ringing. There was a serious problem with housing affordability and wage growth. The housing bubble in Australia is common knowledge with foreign investors willing to pay the inflated house prices. The natives are struggling and are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxury products.

Last month bucked the trend however. We saw a huge rise above the expectations of 0.4% to 1.2% in retail sales. The question is will this growth continue?

I would say the answer to this is sadly no. Having looked into the situation in more detail it looks as though consumers’ obsession with Apple could be the cause along with a spending frenzy on Black Friday. The launch of the iPhone X was the phone that everyone wanted.

If I was an Australian Dollar seller I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I am of the opinion the data release was an anomaly and I think we will see a sharp fall next month. Take into account that GBP/AUD hit 1.79 recently, so current levels are very favorable.

There is unemployment figures next Thursday and it will be interesting to see if the monster run of form can continue. The last figures were the most impressive since February 2013. I would not however hang on for this release if I was selling the Aussie, a lot can happen in a week.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling climbs slightly as political reshuffle springs no surprises (Joseph Wright)

Sterling sellers have seen a boost to the exchange rates available to them today, after the Pound is up across the board of major currency pairs even if only slightly.

This comes on a day that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet, with most moves being predictable according to political analysts.

Brexit related news is of course likely to continue to be one of the main drivers of Sterling price movements, although there are reports that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is beginning to fade. Sterling volatility is expected to wane in the short term future after a market gauge that measures expected volatility was trading at a three-year low earlier today, which means that analysts aren’t expecting to see any market swings in the upcoming months for Sterling exchange rates.

Since the Brexit GBP/AUD has lost quite a lot of value, but the pair are currently trading towards the top end of the recent trend despite GBP losing some value recently as the Aussie Dollar strengthened.

Market predictors are one thing, but I personally wouldn’t rule out a big move in either direction for GBP to AUD exchange rates in the event of a major breakthrough or stumbling block being made public in regards to the second round of Brexit negotiations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Mixed opinions for the Australian dollar

The Australian dollar has had a fantastic run against most of the G10 currencies is recent weeks as the Reserve Bank of Australia changed their tune in regards to interest rates. For example, AUDGBP exchange rates have increased from 0.5570 to 0.5805 in just over 4 weeks.

Looking ahead, experts seem to be disagree whether the Australian dollar will continue to surge against the G10 currencies or fall in value throughout 2018 and there are strong arguments either way.

Economists from Commonwealth Bank, UBS and optimistic that it will be a good year for the Australian dollar as they believe now is the start of a considerable downward trend for the US dollar which will help the value of the Australian dollar. Furthermore the Commonwealth Bank and UBS believe commodity prices will do well this year which will continue to help the Aussie and an interest rate hike for the RBA will occur at some point in quarter 1 or 2.

However on the other hand Morgan Stanley expect the complete opposite. They predict that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates however the RBA won’t raise rates until 2019 which will mean a major sell off of Australian dollars in order to buy US dollars will occur. Furthermore Morgan Stanley and Westpac disagree with the forecasts that commodity prices will have a good year. They are predicting a major slow down for China which in turn will mean iron ore prices will fall.

It is quite clear to see that it is impossible to predict the Australian dollars future at present as we are unsure if the RBA will raise interest rates and when this will occur and also the future of commodity prices. Therefore if I were exposed to Australian dollar conversions for the time being I would continue to monitor these developments and also look into the other currency that you would be converting. For example Brexit negations will drive GBPAUD exchange rates and Donald Trumps twitter account coupled with the Feds stance will dictated USDAUD exchange rates.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are converting, your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.