Tag Archives: australian

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate recover back to pre-Brexit levels anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a 1 and a half cent difference between the high and low for GBP/AUD today, as the pair appear to be continuing to decide which direction to move in next.

Sterling has performed in a mixed fashion against the majority of major currency pairs today and I think the economic data released this morning is perhaps one of the reasons for this.

This morning the office for national statistics (ONS) reported that annualised UK Inflation figures for January showed 3%, justifying the Bank of England’s concerns regarding the rising rates of inflation. This was above the expectation of 2.9% and and considerably above the BoE’s 2% inflationary target figure.

The potential for another rate hike from the BoE is now more realistic, and with wage growth now beginning to show signs of an improvement I think there is a chance of it happening this year which is why the pound has been climbing.

GBP/AUD is currently just under 1.80, and if the pair breach this key level I can imagine seeing the rate break through into the 1.80’s even if it’s proving a stubborn barrier up until this point. A move towards 2.00 would be back to pre-Brexit levels, and should AUD continue to weaken I think seeing GBP/AUD closer to this mark sometime throughout 2018 isn’t something to be ruled out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Consumer confidence and unemployment the key data over the coming days

Tomorrow we have the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence reading, Consumer Confidence is a measure of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity, and is a really good overview of how the general consumer is feeling about their economic situation. A higher reading would be good for the Australian Dollar as it suggests that Consumers may be ready to spend more, and a lower reading would usually weaken the Australian Dollar as it suggests that people have less disposable income in their pocket to spend on goods and services.

On Thursday we will also see the release of unemployment figures for Australia, with expectations of unemployment to have dropped from 5.5% to 5.3% which would be a strong figure. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) had lowered their unemployment expectations recently to 5.25% for the year ending June 2018 so this figure would fall in line with the RBA’s predictions and may give the Australian Dollar a good solid Thursday should this come out as predicted.

For those with a currency exchange to carry out involving the Australian Dollar in the coming days, weeks or months you must also be wary that the figure may come out worse than expected, for example should the figure remain at 5.5% or only come down to 5.4% then we may witness Australian Dollar weakness as we head towards the end of the trading week.

We do have a flurry of inflation data out tomorrow afternoon from the U.S which can impact Australian Dollar rates due to the flow between the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar, anything positive for the U.S can generally weaken the Australian Dollar at present, as it heightens the chance of an interest rate hike in the States.

If you need to carry out a currency exchange involving the Australian Dollar and you want to achieve the best rate of exchange, along with help on timing your transfer. You are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to speak with you personally to help with your situation.

Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar liable to global stock market sell off and RBA warning leads to Australian Dollar weakness

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly choppy week so far this week, generally losing ground against most major currencies due to comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia that indicated that any interest rate hikes may be quite far away, and also due to global uncertainty in the stock market, seeing the Dow Jones and other indexes around the world drop considerably over the week.

The issue with the Australian Dollar is that it is perceived as a riskier currency, therefore when you tend to see a volatile global market, and uncertainty politically or with economic data  around the world you tend to see the Australian Dollar weaken, as investors will shy away from riskier currencies and head to safer havens, such as the U.S Dollar and the Swiss Franc.

As I indicated earlier in the week I do feel that the Australian Dollar may have a tough period coming up, with interest rates due to be raised by various central banks around the world this may lead to a further flow out of the Australian Dollar and into more attractive currencies with better returns on investment.

The RBA also released a monetary policy statement last night, and although economic data is still fairly good there are concerns around slowing wage growth and inflation rising too.

Poor wage growth and high inflation is a big issue for an economy, as it means the cost of goods and services is going up yet the amount the general consumer has to spend is not rising in line with it, another potential issue for the Australian Dollar going forward.

Not only do we offer up to date market information for our readers but we can actually help you with any currency exchanges too, with top foreign exchange rates and a smooth and efficient service. With over ten years of experience in foreign exchange I would like to think I could be an excellent addition to your armoury when taking on these volatile markets. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally or to get you a live quote.

Bet against the Australian Dollar in 2018? It appears many are doing just that!

The Australian Dollar has not had the worst start to 2018 but it does appear that many major banks and institutions are not expecting AUD exchange rates to have such a good year.

We must be wary that we have seen this a couple of times over the past few years with the vastly predicted Chinese slowdown that still does not appear to have come along.

This time however there are multiple sources out there suggesting a drop in value and the reasons are far more justified and likely. The RBA appear to be holding off on any rate changes for the first part of 2018 compared to various other economies around the world looking to raise rates. An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency so this may lead to money moving out of the Australian Dollar and into more currencies such as the USD should the States raise rates numerous times in 2018.

There is an expectation of commodity prices dropping off throughout 2018 too, with Iron Ore being one of the most notable for the Australian Dollar, with this being one of the larger exports for Australia this is expected to impact export income which may have a knock on effect to the economy.

Finally, Morgan Stanley have also been advocating that clients should consider taking a position for the Australian Dollar to lose ground against the Euro and many others have commented that losses against the Dollar have been spoken about by various financial institutions.

In my opinion I would not be surprised to see Australian Dollar exchange rates to have a fairly poor year, however we do need to also remember that the Australian Dollar does appear to have a fairly strong backbone and the RBA can change their stance regularly so this is still very much a currency to watch very closely.

Currency exchange to make in the near future?

If you need to make a large exchange, involving the buying or selling any major currency then it is key that you get in touch with us to see if we can save you money. This site has been running for over 7 years and I have personally dealt with thousands of new clients that have found they can get a better rate through us rather than their current brokerage, we like the think the service is much better too.

If you would like a quote or to discuss plans for a future transaction then you are welcome to contact me, Daniel Wright, the creator of this site personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to run through exactly how I can help and what rates we can offer.

RBA interest rate decision and press conference overnight, along with retail sales, import and export figures too

We have plenty of market data for the market to get stuck into this week, with the Australian Dollar struggling a little recently this may also lead to further weakness for the Australian Dollar unless we hear some positive news.

There have been numerous analysts commenting recently that they felt we may see a slight period of turbulence for the Australian Dollar and one of the reasons behind this had been expectations of very little interest rate movement throughout 2018.

A higher interest rate is generally good for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors. The Australian interest rate spent quite some time being much more beneficial than that of most other majors which is why the Australian Dollar has remained so strong over the past few years.

What we are seeing now is that other major economies (such as the U.S and U.K) are starting to raise their interest rates, most notably the U.S and this is leading to investors moving their money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, thus weakening the Australian Dollar and making it cheaper to buy.

Expectations are for three further interest rate hikes from the U.S this year and with both the U.S and Australian interest rate sat at 1.5% a further move from the states may lead to this flow of money out of AUD as explained above.

This is why focus is on the RBA and their Tuesday interest rate decision, no changes to rates are expected but it will be comments in their following statement that will be watched very closely, as any hint in future rate changes (or that they plan not to make any changes this year) may lead to sharp Australian Dollar movements.

The other economic data will also be important, but I feel that the star of the show will be any news on the next move from the RBA.

If you have a currency exchange to make in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like assistance then I can help you. Having working at my current brokerage for over ten years I am in a good position to not only help you with the timing of your transfer but also getting the best rate of exchange when you do come to book it.

For more information or simply to get a quote on the rates that we can offer feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back in touch with you.

Employment data will be the main focus for Australian Dollar exchange rates this week (Daniel Wright)

In a reasonably quiet week ahead for Australian Dollar news, the main focus for investors and speculators alike this week will be global attitude to risk and Australian unemployment figures. Global attitude to risk can change at any time, especially with the Trump/North Korean situation still ongoing and the unemployment figures are due out on Friday morning in Australia or overnight on Thursday night for those readers from the U.K.

Expectations are for unemployment levels to remain at 5.4% however with a positive improvement in the rise of jobs last month (which was unexpected) do not rule out movement for Australian Dollar exchange rates early on Friday.

Having just spent three weeks in Australia it does appear that views on the Australian economy are mixed at present. Some people I spoke to were really confident about how things were going and others were less positive, citing that they felt that certain areas were at the top of a housing bubble that was due to burst at any time.

My opinion from being on the ground over there, particularly in Sydney (where this bubble appears to have blown up the most) I do not see it crashing down anytime soon. There is a huge amount of building work going on and a great increase in new retail developments from what I can see, along with an influx of Chinese money I find it hard to see the house prices dropping off unless further restrictions are put in place to try and halt it artificially.

For me this suggests that the Australian Dollar should remain fairly strong in the early part of 2018, I do not expect large gains made by the Australian Dollar but I would be surprised not to see the currency hold its ground against most majors, as long as the banana skin of major global uncertainty comes along to change that.

If you have an Australian Dollar exchange to make in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like assistance not only on the timing of your transfer but also with achieving the very best rate of exchange too then I can help you personally.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Having now worked at the same foreign exchange brokerage for over a decade I am well placed to assist you and will be more than happy to help.

US Monetary Policy Outlook strengthens the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

FED Hike effects AUD

Before the recent US rate hike by the Federal Reserve the Australian Dollar had weakened against the majority of major currencies in anticipation of the hike. The market moves on rumour as well as fact, which is why the damage had been done. The Australian is appealing to investors due to it’s high returns and  relative safety. But, now following the recent US rate hike to 1.5% the US interest rate and the Australian interest rate are on par. The last time this occurred was between 1997 and 2001. The US Dollar is considered a safe haven currency and due to it now offering the same returns as the Aussie investors have been leaving the Australian Dollar in their droves.

The Australian Dollar has actually strengthened following the decision. This was due to the FED press conference where future monetary policy is discussed. It was stated there would be up to three further hikes next year, but the word “gradual” was used in regards to when they would be implemented. This was unexpected as many predicted a more bullish, optimistic tone.

When rumour starts to filter through that these hikes are going to occur this could well  cause Australian Dollar weakness. If you are an Australian Dollar seller, be wary.

Strong employment Data boosts AUD

Another factor in Aussie strength was strong employment data, The Australian Bureau of Statistics saw employment move higher to 61’600. The highest levels since October 2015. There is still not enough positive data to warrant a rate hike down under.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate hits a 5-month high, will the upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Those following the GBP/AUD rate will be aware of the positive moves for the Pound recently, and within the past 24 hours the rate has hit a 5-month high making it a good time for Sterling sellers.

The rate has traded within just 2 and a half cents of the best levels in the last year, so the questions are now being asked as to whether the pair can reach a new 1-year high.

Those with a currency requirement involving the pair should be aware that the Pound isn’t trading in such a strong fashion against many other major currency pairs, and that in my opinion there is potential for the Pound to fall for a number of reasons.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is currently under pressure as rumours build that there a a number of members of her party prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence regarding her position. Should this issue surface I would personally expect to see the Pound fall quite dramatically against the Aussie Dollar amongst other major currencies.

At the same time inflation hasn’t quite hit the high levels the Bank of England was expecting to see so the chances of future rate hikes have diminished somewhat, certainty regarding the short term future.

If you’re following the GBP/AUD rate and would like to be kept updated to any major swings in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Poor wage growth leads to Australian Dollar weakness despite better unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

This week has been a mixed one for the Australian Dollar so far, with a fairly week start and a flatter past 24 hours.

The reason the Australian Dollar lost strength earlier in the week was due to news of slower wage growth than expected.

Wage growth yesterday came out at 0.5% against analyst’s expectations of 0.7% which is the reason why we saw Australian Dollar weakness.

Wage growth is a really important release in the current climate, if wage growth ( the increase in how much people are earning)  is a lot lower than inflation (the increase in the costs of goods and services) then you can generally expect an economy to drop off a little, as people will have less money in their pocket to spend. Bad economic data can then in turn lead to weakness for a currency, and with markets moving well in advance of an event actually happening this is why we are seeing a good opportunity to buy Australian Dollars at present.

Unemployment figures came out today and despite the fact that they actually showed an improvement, the Australian Dollar failed to make any vast improvements against most major currencies.

The rest of the week is fairly quiet but do not be fooled into thinking that the Australian Dollar will remain flat, being perceived as one of the ‘riskier’ currencies there is always the chance of movement should global attitude to risk alter.

Should you be in the position that you need to buy or sell a large amount of Australian Dollars and you would like my help along with a better exchange rate than your bank or current broker then I would love to hear from you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you would like to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to explain how I can assist.