Tag Archives: bank of england

Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Is now the time to sell Australian dollars and buy pounds?

In recent weeks the pound has been making gains against the Australian dollar and I expect this trend to continue in the weeks and months to come.

This weeks UK GDP and Average Earnings numbers exceeded expectation which pushed GBPAUD exchange rates back towards 1.77. Over the last 12 months the Bank of England have made it clear that they are concerned with inflation and low average earnings.

Now that average earnings have started to rise and forecasts are suggesting inflation will fall this year due to the boost in the pounds value, futures market are predicting a 50% rate hike in May and a 80% chance of a hike by November by the Bank of England, which should provide further strength for the pound.

Brexit negotiations are also going well for the UK as trade discussions begun this year and in March we will get a full update of how the trade talks are going. It feels that sentiment has also changed as European leaders continue to back the UK. Last week French President Emmanuel Macron announced the UK can have a special trade relationship with the EU and this wee German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaking at the Davos summit gave hope to UK businesses when she explained she wants to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible post Brexit.

So all in all it’s looking promising for the UK and the pound. However this doesn’t look like the case down under. Many of the leading banks including Westpac are forecasters a slow down for the Australia as interest rates will remain on hold and commodity prices will fall throughout the year.

Economic indicators are suggesting that the pound will continue to make inroads against the Austrian dollar therefore Australian dollar sellers buying sterling should look to make a transfer sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

GBPAUD breaks through 1.75 (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last three months GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 1/2 cents which has given clients that are buying or selling Australian dollars opportunity. At present GBPAUD has broken through 1.75 and I expect the pound could continue to make further inroads against the Australian dollar.

This week Iron ore prices have showed a slight decline and today Iron Ore is 0.8% down. The Australian economy relies heavily on Iron Ore and Australian dollar exchange rates have a direct correlation. Many forecasters are split to whether Iron ore  over time will rise or fall. Ultimately it all comes down to how much China buy throughout the year. For many years forecasters have suggested a slowdown for China is on the cards but they continue to produce the economic numbers.

Tomorrow morning the UK release key economic data releases in the form of average earning and unemployment rate. Unemployment remains at record lows which is fantastic for UK exchange rates, even though 0 hour contracts are included within these figures. However the average earnings numbers are the concern for the UK. Inflation is outpacing average earning and the UK public are feeling it. If this trend continues further pressure will put on the Bank of England and a change in monetary policy could occur.

Longer term Brexit negotiations will drive the price of GBPAUD. I personally believe that the UK will come to an agreement with the EU therefore a sustained period of 1.80 towards the end the year could be on the cards.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

 

Sterling hits 2 week high vs the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit its best rate to buy Australian Dollars in two weeks after Sterling looks to be starting a fightback against a number of different currencies.

Australian economic data overnight was relatively mixed with the Unemployment rate moving up from 5.4% to 5.5% but the participation rate for December also rose so it appears as though they cancelled out each other.

Also, overnight the Chinese released GDP figures which rose but Retail Sales for December fell. As China is Australia’s biggest trading partner this can often have an impact on Australian Dollar exchange rates but as the data was also mixed this is the reason why we saw little impact on the value of GBPAUD exchange rates.

I think at this time tomorrow we could see further movement on exchange rates when UK Retail Sales are released for December. This will make for very interesting reading as the data will include the festive period and will give us an insight into how the UK economy is performing at the moment.

There have been rumours circulating that the Bank of England are potentially planning for an interest rate hike towards the end of the year. This could be an answer to inflation which is still way above the target at the moment as 3% and another reason for Sterling’s recent gains.

The GBPAUD exchange rate is still close to its recent highs so if you’re considering transferring Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of this short term spike.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Australian Dollars against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Key economic data releases which will impact AUDGBP / GBPAUD exchange rates this week

For clients that converted Australian dollars into sterling or sterling into Australian dollars last week, both sets of clients were provided opportunity which many of clients took advantage of.

Thursday morning Retail Sales numbers were released for Australia and the numbers exceeded expectation which provided an extra cent for clients holding Australian dollars and purchasing sterling. Furthermore the tides turned Friday afternoon when reports were suggesting the Spanish and Dutch finance ministers had agreed that they seek the softest Brexit deal as possible, which is good news for the UK economy and consequently sterling.

This week the first key release which will impact GBPAUD exchange rates is the UK inflation numbers Tuesday morning. Forecasts are suggesting a slight rise to 3.2%. If this occurs more questions will be asked of the Bank of England, and consequently I expect this could provide a boost for the pound. However medium term forecasts are suggesting that inflation will drop over the next 6 months below 3% so I don’t expect a reaction from the central bank.

Later in the week (Thursday morning) Australia release Employment change, Unemployment rate and Participation rate numbers. Forecasts are suggesting all three releases are close to previous therefore if this is the case this could be a non event. However regular readers will be aware that Unemployment rate numbers can have a major impact on future monetary policy therefore keep a close eye on this release.

GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 cents in 6 weeks, and with Brexit negotiations on going, many leading forecasters having a difference of opinion in regards to the future of the Australian dollar, I expect exchange rates will continue to fluctuate. Therefore if I were converting GBPAUD exchange rates I would look to use a limit order, which allows you to set a target rate and if the market spikes to that rate our automatic system will buy the currency on your behalf.

For more information on how I can help you save money on your currency transfer feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate jumps on smooth Brexit hopes, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has spiked in value this afternoon across the board of major currency pairs, after this time the Brexit related news is positive.

Many may have expected to see the Brexit talks begin to have less of an impact on the Pounds day to day value, but it appears to be heating up as UK and EU officials prepare for Brexit trade negotiations and time to invoke Article 50 runs out.

The good news for the Pound today can be attributed to reports of the Netherlands and Spain is apparently open to a softer Brexit deal for Britain, which is of course welcome news to those hoping for a stronger Pound.

Those following the Pound should be aware that it’s trading at an 18-month high against the US Dollar.

Moving forward the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is likely to continue to be driven by sentiment surrounding the Brexit and how the UK economy will perform during and after the transition.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price changes between the pair discussed today, do feel free to get in touch and register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPAUD crashes below 1.70 (Dayle Littlejohn)

At the end of last week the eagerly anticipated Bank of England interest rate decision provided a huge shock for clients buying Australian dollars. The Bank of England hiked interest rates to 0.5% and forecasters were predicting the pound would continue to climb against the Australian dollar and potential reach the mid 1.70s.

However as the hike was seen as ‘dovish’ because two of the members of the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold and growth forecasts for next year were cut, the pound plummeted against the Australian dollar. The next question is will the pound recover and break through 1.70 once more or have Australian dollars buyers missed their opportunity.

Inflation numbers down under remain under pressure which means the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will change their tune in regards to interest rates is unlikely. Therefore I expect the Australian dollar to remain under pressure.

Brexit headlines will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates. Negotiators have announced that there will be three more rounds before the turn of the year and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be hoping that stage 2 negotiations would have begun. If this is the case I expect the pound would have broken through the 1.70 barrier and actually progressed closer to 1.75. Therefore if I were selling Australian dollars to buy pounds I would take advantage of the recent movement and look to make the conversion sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound fight back vs the Australian Dollar during November? (Tom Holian)

Thursday saw one of the most eagerly anticipated days of the year so far with the latest Bank of England interest rate decision but for anyone hoping to see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction was sorely disappointed.

Although the Bank of England as predicted did raise interest rates for the first time in over ten years the accompanying statement caused the market to plummet to below 1.70.

The interest rate hike was arguably the most dovish in history with the central bank suggesting that we may only see two more rate hikes by the end of 2020, which is hardly good news for anyone looking to invest in Sterling for a positive yield.

However, today we saw GBPAUD exchange rates stabilise above 1.70 after such heavy losses which shows there is still Australian Dollar weakness at the moment against the Pound.

I personally think although we may see Sterling remain under some pressure against the Australian Dollar I expect to see the Pound make gains vs the Australian Dollar in the weeks ahead.

Therefore, if you’re looking at buying or selling Australian Dollars but want peace of mind in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Will the Bank of England hike rates on Thursday and the impact on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has continued to remain very strong having broken past the resistance level of 1.70 and targeting 1.72 during today’s trading session creating some excellent opportunities for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

With the uncertainty surrounding what is happening in Catalonia the Pound has seen the benefit of a Euro sell off in favour of Sterling and this in turn has boosted GBPAUD exchange rates.

With the Bank of England also due to meet on Thursday the current polls have got an 84% chance of a rate hike occurring on Thursday and this is another reason for Sterling strength vs the Australian Dollar.

Thursday could be the biggest day of the week in terms of what happens between the Pound and the Australian Dollar owing to the economic announcements due out.

We begin Thursday with the release of both Australian Import and Export data as well as Trade Balance figures and as this comes out in the early morning it may be worth considering a Limit Order which allows you to buy at a pre-agreed exchange rate even outside of usual UK working hours.

At midday on Thursday the Bank of England will announce their latest interest rate decision and the chances are very high that we’ll see the first rate hike on Thursday so make sure you’re prepared for a busy day if you’re buying or selling Australian Dollars.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Should I trade my Australian dollars into sterling now? (Dayle Littlejohn)

For people that are emigrating to the UK at some stage you will need to convert Australian dollars into Sterling and thats where I come in. The currency company that I work for undercuts banks exchange rates which means you will have more sterling for when you arrive on UK shores.

Since the Brexit vote rates for selling Australian dollars to buy sterling have been fantastic however in recent weeks the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar due to the devaluation of the Australian dollar and the strengthening of sterling.

Australian inflation fell last week, which confirms the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary that an interest rate is completely off the cards. UK inflation has been on the rise for many months due to the weaker pound and it’s likely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this Thursday which means GBPAUD could push towards the mid 1.70s.

The key economic event that will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates is the Brexit negotiations. The UK and EU negotiators have made it clear that decisions need to be made in the upcoming months, and UK Prime Minster Theresa May confirmed last week that both parties are close to securing the EU citizens rights deal. This is so important for sterling exchange rates as a deal will mean stage 2 negotiations can begin.

For people that need to convert Australian dollars into pounds, you are still receiving something I call ‘the Brexit discount’. In the upcoming months I expect the pound to continue making inroads against the Australian dollar therefore converting sooner rather than later would be my strategy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **