Tag Archives: bank of england

GBPAUD crashes below 1.70 (Dayle Littlejohn)

At the end of last week the eagerly anticipated Bank of England interest rate decision provided a huge shock for clients buying Australian dollars. The Bank of England hiked interest rates to 0.5% and forecasters were predicting the pound would continue to climb against the Australian dollar and potential reach the mid 1.70s.

However as the hike was seen as ‘dovish’ because two of the members of the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold and growth forecasts for next year were cut, the pound plummeted against the Australian dollar. The next question is will the pound recover and break through 1.70 once more or have Australian dollars buyers missed their opportunity.

Inflation numbers down under remain under pressure which means the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will change their tune in regards to interest rates is unlikely. Therefore I expect the Australian dollar to remain under pressure.

Brexit headlines will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates. Negotiators have announced that there will be three more rounds before the turn of the year and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be hoping that stage 2 negotiations would have begun. If this is the case I expect the pound would have broken through the 1.70 barrier and actually progressed closer to 1.75. Therefore if I were selling Australian dollars to buy pounds I would take advantage of the recent movement and look to make the conversion sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound fight back vs the Australian Dollar during November? (Tom Holian)

Thursday saw one of the most eagerly anticipated days of the year so far with the latest Bank of England interest rate decision but for anyone hoping to see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction was sorely disappointed.

Although the Bank of England as predicted did raise interest rates for the first time in over ten years the accompanying statement caused the market to plummet to below 1.70.

The interest rate hike was arguably the most dovish in history with the central bank suggesting that we may only see two more rate hikes by the end of 2020, which is hardly good news for anyone looking to invest in Sterling for a positive yield.

However, today we saw GBPAUD exchange rates stabilise above 1.70 after such heavy losses which shows there is still Australian Dollar weakness at the moment against the Pound.

I personally think although we may see Sterling remain under some pressure against the Australian Dollar I expect to see the Pound make gains vs the Australian Dollar in the weeks ahead.

Therefore, if you’re looking at buying or selling Australian Dollars but want peace of mind in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Will the Bank of England hike rates on Thursday and the impact on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has continued to remain very strong having broken past the resistance level of 1.70 and targeting 1.72 during today’s trading session creating some excellent opportunities for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

With the uncertainty surrounding what is happening in Catalonia the Pound has seen the benefit of a Euro sell off in favour of Sterling and this in turn has boosted GBPAUD exchange rates.

With the Bank of England also due to meet on Thursday the current polls have got an 84% chance of a rate hike occurring on Thursday and this is another reason for Sterling strength vs the Australian Dollar.

Thursday could be the biggest day of the week in terms of what happens between the Pound and the Australian Dollar owing to the economic announcements due out.

We begin Thursday with the release of both Australian Import and Export data as well as Trade Balance figures and as this comes out in the early morning it may be worth considering a Limit Order which allows you to buy at a pre-agreed exchange rate even outside of usual UK working hours.

At midday on Thursday the Bank of England will announce their latest interest rate decision and the chances are very high that we’ll see the first rate hike on Thursday so make sure you’re prepared for a busy day if you’re buying or selling Australian Dollars.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Should I trade my Australian dollars into sterling now? (Dayle Littlejohn)

For people that are emigrating to the UK at some stage you will need to convert Australian dollars into Sterling and thats where I come in. The currency company that I work for undercuts banks exchange rates which means you will have more sterling for when you arrive on UK shores.

Since the Brexit vote rates for selling Australian dollars to buy sterling have been fantastic however in recent weeks the pound has been recovering against the Australian dollar due to the devaluation of the Australian dollar and the strengthening of sterling.

Australian inflation fell last week, which confirms the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary that an interest rate is completely off the cards. UK inflation has been on the rise for many months due to the weaker pound and it’s likely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this Thursday which means GBPAUD could push towards the mid 1.70s.

The key economic event that will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates is the Brexit negotiations. The UK and EU negotiators have made it clear that decisions need to be made in the upcoming months, and UK Prime Minster Theresa May confirmed last week that both parties are close to securing the EU citizens rights deal. This is so important for sterling exchange rates as a deal will mean stage 2 negotiations can begin.

For people that need to convert Australian dollars into pounds, you are still receiving something I call ‘the Brexit discount’. In the upcoming months I expect the pound to continue making inroads against the Australian dollar therefore converting sooner rather than later would be my strategy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound hits 4 month high vs the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit the best rate to buy Australian Dollars since June following a number of positive announcements during the course of the week.

Sterling has found some support against all major currencies towards the end of last week after some positive feedback from the talks in Europe. However, since Wednesday GBPAUD exchange rates managed to break through 1.60 on the Interbank level and have remained above this level at the time of writing and I think we could see further gains ahead for the Pound.

The first estimate of UK GDP figures for the third quarter showed much higher than expected numbers at 0.4% compared to 0.3% and this saw the Pound increase dramatically.

Part of the reason for such strength is that with the economy looking very positive this means that the Bank of England are becoming more and more likely to hike interest rates at next week’s meeting.

Potentially this could help the Pound make further gains vs all major currencies if this takes place.

However, one risk is that although the likelihood is as high as 84% chance of a rate hike if it doesn’t take place we could see some dramatic losses for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar so in effect there is a risk by not buying your Australian Dollars prior to next Thursday.

We have the release of US GDP data and this often has a big impact on commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

Generally speaking if the data is positive later today this could see Australian Dollar strength vs the Pound but if the data is lower than expected then we could see the Pound make further gains.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Will the Pound to Australian Dollar rate manage to hold its ground above 1.70? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen against most currency pairs today, making the converting of Pounds into other foreign currencies such as the Aussie Dollar a less attractive prospect.

Since breaking back above 1.70 against the Aussie Dollar, which has been a key psychological level for GBP/AUD since the Brexit vote the Pound has managed to hold its ground above it despite some negative data coming out the UK today.

Sterling has been helped regarding the GBP/AUD pair by Aussie Dollar weakness, as some particularly poor retail sales figures from down under recently spooked the markets.

Today it was also retail sales figures that disappointed but this time it was the UK’s retail sales figures.

With Brexit talks forever in the financial headlines at the moment putting pressure on the Pound, along with disappointing data out of Australia recently it may be a battle of which currency is the weakest that determines where GBP/AUD goes next.

There are no more major economic data releases out of the UK this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment. With all that’s going on in the UK politically at the moment I there can always be a news release that swings GBP exchange rates, and if you wish to be updated if there are any big moves it’s certainly worth registering your interest with me.

Next week there will be releases that could impact the GBP/AUD rate further, so it’s worth getting in touch before the weekend if you wish to plan around any key times.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian inflation and UK GDP push GBPAUD above 1.70

GBPAUD exchange rates have strengthened by 3 and 1/2 cents today off the back of Australian and UK economic data  releases. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer at the high of the day compared to the low would have achieved our clients an additional 7,000 Australian dollars.

In the early hours of the morning Australia released their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. Forecasters were predicting 2% however the inflation numbers disappointing and fell to 1.8%, leading to a sell off of the Australian dollar. The reason for the Australian dollar being heavily sold off is because now inflation has fallen the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to give dovish statements in regards to interest rates.

Later in the morning the third revision of UK GDP was released. GDP exceeded expectation and was released at 0.4% from 0.3%. This doesn’t seem much, however it shows growth and something that many economists have not foreseen. The pound strengthened dramatically against all of the major currencies as this data release could be the final nail in the coffin and the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates on November 2nd.

For clients buying Australian dollars using sterling, central levels have now broken through 1.70 and for many clients this has been there target over the last 6 months. People need to remember that central levels were in the 1.50s not long ago. For clients trading short term, you need to decide whether to cash in now or wait for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPAUD break through 1.70?

Economists are split at present in regards to the future of GBPAUD exchange rates, and after reading the last few articles on this website, it seems that traders on the trading floor are also split and it’s no surprise when the UK’s Brexit negotiations continues to spring surprises.

Head EU negotiator Michel Barnier has announced that Brexit negotiations had hit deadlock however that same day reports were suggesting that EU officials would meet to discuss what a potential trade deal would like if the UK and EU come to an agreement about EU citizens rights and the divorce settlement bill.

With UK inflation breaking through 3%, the market is pricing in an interest rate hike which could push GBPAUD through the 1.70 barrier. However Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s comments yesterday do not fill me with much confidence. He was asked if the Bank of England plan to change monetary policy and would not give a straight answer. Nevertheless in the next 2 weeks I believe the pound will strengthen enough in anticipation providing Australian dollar buyers with a window of opportunity to buy Australian dollars above 1.70.

Longer term its important to understand that predicting the Brexit negotiations outcome is impossible. Positive news will strengthen the pound negative will do the opposite. I am optimistic that deal will be struck eventually however other traders on the floor are not. If you are purchasing pounds with Australian dollars or vice versa I would recommend getting in touch and I will keep you up to date with regular information until you are ready to convert drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

GBPAUD struggles to maintain recent form

The GBPAUD exchange rate has slipped lower from the highs of 1.69 and 1.70 fairly recently as investor concerns over the outlook for the UK to raise interest rates increase. Yesterday was the latest Inflation data for the UK and today is Unemployment data where we will get the latest news on Wage Inflation. A big driver on GBPAUD rates this week is how the market reacts to the prospect of the UK raising interest rates which now looks less likely.

Overall the Australian dollar has been stronger against sterling after investors retain an interest in the higher yielding Australian dollar which represents a very good opportunity to earn a higher yield on their investments. The big news on the Australian dollar will be the Unemployment data which is released tomorrow evening and could see the Aussie even stronger against the pound.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is key to understanding the current trends and themes in the market. With there being a high chance the pound will lose further value GBPAUD rates could be well worth considering if you have to buy Australian dollars with pounds.

We are currently at some of the better rates of this year, the worst deals were in the 1.50’s so with 1.70 only a couple of cents away and the forecast in my opinion pointing downwards say to the mid or lower 1.60’s, I think if you are buying Australian dollars moving sooner would be the best course of action.

For AUD sellers buying pounds the market remains very favourable so if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling please don’t hesitate to get in touch and discuss further the market and how we can help you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information.

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.