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This year we have seen the Aussie as one of the biggest losers on the currency markets. Many had been expecting this for sometime claiming the Aussie was ridiculously overvalued. Where next will rates go on the Australian dollar?
Making currency prediction is an extremely difficult thing and no one can tell you exactly what will happen. What we can expect in the future however can be determined from assessing the current trend. Reading between the lines it appears to me that the Australian economy is on the back foot and that in the future the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will seek to weaken the Australian currency as they have recently.
It is worth remembering the Australian currency was historically much, much weaker and current selling rates remain very favourable.
If you would like more information on the future direction of rates and what to be considering if moving funds, please contact me Jonathan directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
GBP/AUD exchange rates through 1.81 following poor GDP data in Australia, will the trend continue? (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling pushed through the 1.81 barrier this morning, bringing GBP/AUD to its highest levels since February 2010 – but will this trend continue? Overnight Australian GDP data was released showing a disappointing result of 0.6% down from the expected 0.6%. This has brought the shift in Sterling to just shy of 8% against the Aussie since the end of October – a pretty good return in anyone’s eyes. For me there is a chance that this run will continue, but I would also urge AUD buyers to consider these gains and view the opportunities currently available.
Looking at the data for the rest of the week watch out for employment figures from the US at 12:15 today and the important non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 on Friday. Any improvement and I would expect further losses for the AUD as this shifts the likelihood of the FED tapering QE a little bit closer, a situation that is likely to bad news for AUD exchange rates. Also watch out for the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow at 12.00, expect to see no change which shouldn’t affect rates significantly but still one to keep an eye on.
As with making any financial decision it is always best to get as much information about the product and the service on offer. As a specialist execution only currency broker we pride ourselves on our
efficient, client friendly service and most importantly our price. When using a broker rates can be significantly better than high street banks and other financial institutions. To find out more about the service please contact 01494 787478 or email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily provide further insight into current market conditions and the contract that may work best for you. Email Mike on email@example.com
Pound pushes on against the Australian Dollar as Mark Carney indicates the UK’s recovery is taking hold (Mike Vaughan)
The current topsy turvy trend for GBP/AUD is continuing. At the beginning of October the market was looking set for a push to 1.75 and beyond reaching a high of 1.74, however within a three week period levels had fallen back to 1.67, a fall of over 4%.
Today the pound has pushed on following positive unemployment data from the UK and a positive stance from Mark Carney head of the Bank of England. Following the release of todays Bank of England Inflation report Carney indicated that the UK recovery was taking hold. He indicated growth for this year is forecast to be 1.6%, up from 1.4% previously thought, and for next year, annual growth is expected to be 2.8%, rather than the 2.5% it predicted in August.
The report said: “In the United Kingdom, recovery has finally taken hold. The economy is growing robustly as lifting uncertainty and thawing credit conditions start to unlock pent-up demand.”
We are currently seeing a recovery from the pounds point of view with levels recovering from 1.677 last week to over 1.72 at the time of writing. For me I still feel there is more value for Aussie buyers and would look again for the pound to push on from current levels. However October’s trends are a timely reminder of how quickly the market can shift and how opportunities can be missed.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like assistance getting the best deal then contact the office on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will contact you to discuss how we can be of assistance and how the currency service we provide works. Email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org
Busy day for the pound with the Bank of England interest rate decision as GBP/AUD pushes back towards 1.70 (Mike Vaughan)
Today is likely to be a busy day for sterling exchange rates with the release of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision. It is widely expected that rates will remain on hold at 0.5% and so to will the banks stance on Quantitative Easing. As a result I wouldn’t expect too much movement for the pound, unless of course the bank springs a surprise.
Overnight the GBP/AUD rate has pushed towards 1.70. Unemployment figures remained at 5.7% as expected but comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens stating that the dollar is “uncomfortably high” weakened the Aussie and suggests the RBA may consider intervening to make sure they get the outcome they want. This will make tomorrows RBA monetary policy statement important for anyone looking at AUD as any hint at future interest rate cuts and we could see levels push though the 1.70 barrier and beyond. For me I personally feel more value will be seen for AUD buyers but
anyone selling should consider their current position.
Should you have a money exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the current trends and the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 and I will happily provide my thoughts and run through the various contracts we can offer. Alternatively please email me with a brief overview of your currency requirement on email@example.com
The Australian dollar should strengthen soon as investors risk appetite increases. I expect this to happen once the US debt ceiling issue is solved and the next week will be crucial. In order to really get the best exchange rate it is necessary to be prepared. How will you even know you are getting the best rate if you haven’t made any preparations? This site offers information on what to beware of plus access to the very best rates of exchange and tools to limit your currency exposure. Even if you are inexperienced in such matters, we can help explain what will move your exchange rate and this will help you to get more for your money. My personal contact details are at the bottom of the post if you have specific questions.
Key things that moves Aussie exchange rates
Global Sentiments – As and when market sentiment is positive (good for the Aussie) or negative (bad for the Aussie) the Aussie fluctuates. Market sentiment can be evidenced by global economic conditions. Right now the US impasse is proving the big talking point, as is the possible effect of all of this on QE tapering in the US.
China – As Chinese economic conditions improve or decline so does the Aussies fortunes. The slowing pace of growth in China has been a major driver for AUS weakness this year.
Economic conditions in Australia and also the respective countries of the currency pair you are considering will also impact rates. Right now the pound is posting good economic news and this has helped sterling to spike to the near 3 year highs in the last couple of months.
The forecast on the Aussie leading to Christmas would be AUD strength. For now it looks highly unlikely we will see any withdrawal of the US QE programme which should keep the Aussie favoured as confidence remains high.
If you are considering a currency exchange in the future and wish to find out more about what will move your rate and secure better rates than you rbank or broker please speak to me on firstname.lastname@example.org
I look forward to hearing from you.