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Yesterday the Australian Dollar retraced some of its recent losses against the pound but was too see some further losses against the Euro. Coming into the office this morning and the Australian Dollar has seen some heavy losses against the Euro moving a cent from the high/low already, the pound has also seen some strength pushing back towards the 1.55 territory opening the day at 1.5430. The AUD weakness can in some ways be attributed to poor consumer confidence figures from Australia overnight, continuing a recent trend of softer data coming from Australia.
Whats in store today?
This morning anyone looking at GBP/AUD should watch out for the Bank of England minutes scheduled for release at 09.30. For me I would not expect to see any dramatic announcements as Sir Mervyn King is coming towards the end of his tenure as the head of the central bank and for this reason is unlikely to look to adopt any significant policy changes as a result, this is likely to be left in the hands of the new governor Mark Carney who takes over in July. Personally I think the minutes could be a slight non-event but certainly any nod to a change in interest rates of further QE and the GBP/AUD could swing either way.
For anyone looking at EUR/AUD European consumer confidence figures are scheduled for tomorrow and expected to show a slight improvement which may well lend further support to the Euro. Historically AUD rates are still very strong against the Euro and Pound but this trend appears to be shifting.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at email@example.com
Sterling has rallied back above 1.48 against the Australian Dollar for the first time in nearly 6 weeks, will we see the pound recover to 1.50? Following the poor growth forecasts released by China the AUD has fallen nearly 3 cents in just over 2 days and has created a short term opportunity for anyone in a position to take advantage. Long term this may well be a pattern that continues and particularly if we continue to see a slow down in China then the AUD is a currency that is likely to take a significant hit. However short term buyers of the dollar also need to keep a close eye on any further announcements from the UK with regards to QE (clues will be given tomorrow when the Bank of England release their latest minutes from this months interest rate decision). Any hint towards QE and the recent gains for the pound could be evaporated. Looking to next week watch out for the 25th April when the official GDP data will be released, if the UK can avoid the triple dip and the bank decides against QE then I believe we will see 1.50 by the end of the month.
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The Bank of England has decided to keep interest rates on hold and to keep the amount of QE at £375bn with no additional funding. This has seen Sterling improve against the Australian Dollar which has hit lows of 1.4590 early this morning. However, Sterling still looks in trouble against the Aussie as interest rates down under were kept on hold this week.
It seems at the moment that investors are attracted to the Australian Dollar for its attractive interest rate yield of 3% which is a great deal higher than what’s on offer in either the US, UK or Europe. This month will be key for Sterling as if we have negative growth at the end of this quarter we will be in a triple dip recession meaning further struggles potentially for the Pound. Investor confidence seems to be bypassing the UK so my prediction is that we’ll see Sterling continue to test historically low levels against the AUD$.
Shortly the ECB will announce their interest rate decision. No movement could see further strengthening for the Aussie as stability continues in Europe. Stability generally encourages more risk appetite for the Australian Dollar. I think the ECB will keep interest rates on hold at 0.75% but keep your ear out for what ECB President Mario Draghi has to say about exchange rate movement for the single currency.
For information about how to ensure you’re getting the best exchange rate when transferring Australian Dollars get in touch for free quote by emailing me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
With the MPC minutes out last Wednesday showing that 3 of the 9 members voting for further QE Sterling has continued to fall against the Australian Dollar. Mervyn King was one of the advocates of further QE so to me it’s only a matter of time before the Bank of England prints more money.
When Sterling vs Euro almost hit parity a few years ago the UK’s economic climate was very similar with GDP very low. Therefore, a weak Pound helped to aid the UK’s recovery by allowing exports to become cheaper. The same signs seem to be happening at the moment which is why we could see further losses for Sterling before things start to improve.
The US published some very strong figures which has meant investor confidence has returned and therefore a bigger attraction to invest in higher risk currencies including the Aussie Dollar. GBPAUD exchange rates are trading in the 1.47 region and my feeling is that today we could see further losses.
US Home Sales and Construction were up which is a big sign that confidence is returning to the world’s biggest economy. Bernanke spoke earlier this evening and said there may be room for further QE in the US which could help to stabilise the economy.
For up to date information as to what is happening with AUD exchange rates then feel free to contact me directly via email Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Australian unemployment data released yesterday showed that the unemployment rate remained at 5.4% in line with expectation which is a two and a half year high. This has slightly weakened the AUD$ but only by a small amount as often currency markets move more when figures are better or worse than expectation. The number of people in employment has grown by 18,900 to 8.13mn but the figure was tainted by an 8,000 drop in part time jobs to 3.393 million. The figures are neither good nor bad so the GBPAUD exchange rates have only moved in a small range.
Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold which was a surprise to many and I’ll be honest including myself as I thought with the aggressive cutting displayed earlier this year I thought interest rates may drop to 3%. As the RBA kept rates the same and with job numbers remaining within a comfortable range I think next month the RBA will now do the same and keep interest rates on hold. One of the reasons why the RBA didn’t alter monetary policy was that the global economy looks to have settled down and with Obama coming in for a second term I would be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates improve in the short term as investors look to plough more funds into the Aussie.
Later today both the Bank of England and the European Central bank meet to discuss interest rates. There has been a lot of talk about the Bank of England and more Quantitative Easing measures this month as November is the time when the previous amounts are due to run out so if you have a requirement to sell Sterling and buy Australian Dollars it may be worth having a chat with me today. Feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
Australian Dollar Forecast today is for GBPAUD exchange rates to drop to below 1.53 on mid-market this afternoon.
Over the course of the weekend we have seen continued strength from the Australian dollar, will this continue? This morning the pound is again losing ground against the Aussie, however the pound is down across the board so this would appear to be Sterling weakness rather than a continuation of strength form the Australian Dollar. The pound could be in for a rocky week in the run up to GDP estimates from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well regarded think tank. Figures are often relatively accurate and will therefore be viewed closely. Should the figures continue to show a negative etrend then we could see further moves towards 1.47 – just 1 cent of the record levels seen in February this year and creating some fanatastic sell opportunities for anyone holding Australian dollars. Also this week for anyone looking at GBP/AUD we have the Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday at 10.30 – keep an eye on this foany clues as to future Montary policy from the Bank of England.
Prior to this anyone with an interest in teh Aussie should keep an eyo the Reserve Bank fo Australia interest rate decision overnight. We are expecting to see rates on hold at 3.5% but any announcements from the Reserve Bank may cause short term swings, however I would still expect the Australian dollar to continue to see positive movements ands can see 1.47 on GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD down towards 1.16 – although I do feel the Aussie is beginning to reach its peak and any AUD sellers should sseriously consider taking advanatage.
As a specialist curreny broker the aim of this blog is to help private and corporate clients make the most of their currency exchange. When moving large sums of money it is highly important to have access to best prices, though using the services of a specialist broker it enables you to keep up todate with current market trends and data sets that may affect yoru exchange. It is not uncommon to see the amrket move well in excess of 1% in a day and timing yoru exchange can make a very big diffeerence to the amount of currency your receive. Here at currencies.co.uk we have a number of contracts available to maxmise or guarantee yoru exchange, to discuss these in more detail and my opninons on the market then please email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org or call on 01494 787478.
With the news that both the Bank of England and the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged and with Mario Draghi’s recent comments about supporting the single currency we have seen investors flocking back into the Australian Dollar. This has seen the GBPAUD exchange rate drop to as low as 1.4770 on interbank but as previously commented on last week’s post we are seeing the support level currently in place at 1.4750 not yet being broken. The Bank of England declined to extend its current amount of QE which stands at £375bn and the ECB kept interest rates on hold at 0.7% the record low for the Euro zone.
Owing to the recent QE it was no surprise that no more was extended as it will always take a bit of time to see if the scheme was been successful or not. With the UK’s GDP at -0.7% last Wednesday the previous month’s QE will have had little or no impact on the data. I am expecting to see the GBPAUD rate improve marginally tomorrow as the currency markets seem to have overreacted to the interest rate decisions this afternoon in the UK and Europe. Sterling has strengthened against the Euro to the higher 1.27 region and expectations are for it to break through 1.28 later on today. If you need to make a currency transfer and are worried about not getting the best exchange rate please contact me Tom Holian email@example.com ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ for preferential exchange rates. The company I work for is a dedicated foreign exchange specialist and typically we can save you up to 4% on any currency transaction compared to using a high street bank.
Sterling exchange rates have continued to strengthen creeping back above the 1.60 mark this morning, a near 15 cent swing since the lows seen in February. This to me is creating some fantastic short term buying opportuntites and with the Bank of England interest rates decision at 12:00 tomorrow, why not take advantage today? Email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss your requirement.
Data to affect GBP/AUD this week.
As mentioned tomorrow we have the Bank of England minutes released at 12:00. It is almost a given that rates will remain on hold at 0.5% and this is unlikely to have much of an affect on the pound but should any announcement be made with regards to QE (Quantitative Easing) then we could see the pound slide. Personally I think the MPC (Monetary Policy Committe) who make this decision will avoid pumping more money into the system but with the UK now officially back in recession there surely is an outside chance, as to be honest I dont think the bank have anything else up their sleeve at this point. For this reason tomorrow could be one to avoid and I would expect volatility.
Other data of note will include Australian unemployment figures released over night. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to increase from 5.2% to 5.3% and we could again see some AUD weakness prior to the UK interest rate release in tomorrow’s morning session.
Finally on Friday we have UK PPI (Producer Price Index a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by the UK manufactures when buying goods and services). Figures expected to show a sharp fall from 1.9% to -0.6% month on month and this too could hit any further gains for the pound on Frdiay.
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Sterling has finished a strong week on another positive note against the Aussie dollar gaining 0.5% on the day, this has taken the pound to fresh year highs against the AUD. The gains since the lows of February have now reached 8% creating some great buying opportunities. Why has the Aussie weakened? Much of the movements appear to have stemmed from the US jobs data in which non-farm payroll figures came in way below expected. This has caused concerns over world economic growth figures and a move away from riskier currencies, such as the AUD, was seen. With the UK heading into a bank holiday weekend moves may well slow over the course of the next few days but be wary as next week is full of potential hazards culminating with the Bank of England interest rate decision next Thursday. Rates are expected to stay on hold but this being the first meeting since the UK was officially back in recession, it will be interesting to see what stance the Bank will take to help boost the ailing UK economy, any mention of Quantitative Easing and a fall from the current highs could be seen.
To discuss your particular transfer in more detail please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to discuss my thoughts and forecasts, and run through the various contracts we can offer in an attempt to maximise your exchange.
The Australian Senate have now passed a law of 30% tax on both coal mining and iron ore companies. According to a variety of sources the tax is due to raise over AUD$10bn over the next few years from three of the major mining companies. With the expansion of China, India, Russia and Brazil and their need for Australian natural resources this has had a direct impact on the strength of the Australian Dollar which last year hit a 26 year high against Sterling.
The new mining tax comes into place on 1st July and the idea is to share the revenue generated across the wide economy. Another proposal is to cut the company tax rate to 29% from 30%. The original idea was to charge 40% but this was challenged by the mining giants and therefore the compromise was reached.
With the Bank of England minutes due out tomorrow morning and GBPAUD currently trading 1.51 I think we could see 1.52 if the minutes show a 9-0 vote against further Quantitative Easing. For further information please contact me Tom Holian email@example.com