Tag Archives: Best AUD exchange rates

RBA Interest Rate Forecast vital to AUD value (Daniel Johnson)

NAB predict Rate Hike as early as August

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has a very optimistic forecast in regards to rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). They are a minority. They are of the opinion we could see an interest rate hike by 0.25 basus points as early as August.

“The RBA has indicated that it is in no rush to raise rates in lock-step with global central bank counterparts. However, lower unemployment, and evidence of wages growth moving upwards — even gradually — should be enough to give the RBA confidence that inflation will eventually lift above the bottom of the band,” said Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist.

“We continue to forecast two 25 basis point rate hikes in August and November, although acknowledge the risks are that these hikes could be delayed.”
Oster attached a couple of warnings which could change the RBA’s decision, noting that a slowing in household credit and house prices due to macro-prudential measures implemented by APRA “may help alleviate some concerns about household debt”.He continued “higher AUD may also threaten this outlook although our revised forecasts are for the currency to be 75 US cents by year end”.

Personally I do not share his view. I think a hike by August is very optimistic and economic data is not consistent enough to warrant a hike . Inflation is some way from where it needs to be and there is no reason to suggest there will be a rapid rise between now and August. This a viewpoint shared by the man that counts. RBA Governor, Philip Lowe who recently stated the following.

“further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to the midpoint of the target range”, adding that it was “likely that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be up, not down”.

He also said “while we do expect steady progress, that progress is likely to be only gradual.

The general consensus is there will not be a rate hike until at least early 2019.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling remains strong despite poor data release (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has managed to hold its ground against the Aussie Dollar today, despite some disappointing data being released earlier today.

It’s emerged that the UK construction sector is relatively flat at the moment, and this is similar to the UK manufacturing sector which also saw disappointing data released recently.

Despite this, the Pound is managing to hold onto its recent gains where the currency has moved up into the later 1.70’s after spending much of last year below 1.70. This suggests to me that the Pound has consolidated at its current levels and I think that there is more of a chance of seeing the pair hit 1.80 than 1.70 recently.

I think the Pound has also been helped by Aussie Dollar weakness which has restricted AUD from regaining any ground. An interesting estimate released recently is that there are forecasts of a 20% decline in iron ore prices throughout 2018, and this comes after the commodity lost quite alot of value recently already.

The reason this is significant is because iron ore is one of Australia’s biggest exports, so therefore a drop in the commodities value is likely to result in a drop in export income for the country.

Those watching this pair should also consider that if there is more talk of a rate hike from the Bank of England in May, we could see Sterling climb even higher.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Is now the time to sell Australian dollars and buy pounds?

In recent weeks the pound has been making gains against the Australian dollar and I expect this trend to continue in the weeks and months to come.

This weeks UK GDP and Average Earnings numbers exceeded expectation which pushed GBPAUD exchange rates back towards 1.77. Over the last 12 months the Bank of England have made it clear that they are concerned with inflation and low average earnings.

Now that average earnings have started to rise and forecasts are suggesting inflation will fall this year due to the boost in the pounds value, futures market are predicting a 50% rate hike in May and a 80% chance of a hike by November by the Bank of England, which should provide further strength for the pound.

Brexit negotiations are also going well for the UK as trade discussions begun this year and in March we will get a full update of how the trade talks are going. It feels that sentiment has also changed as European leaders continue to back the UK. Last week French President Emmanuel Macron announced the UK can have a special trade relationship with the EU and this wee German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaking at the Davos summit gave hope to UK businesses when she explained she wants to keep the UK as close to the EU as possible post Brexit.

So all in all it’s looking promising for the UK and the pound. However this doesn’t look like the case down under. Many of the leading banks including Westpac are forecasters a slow down for the Australia as interest rates will remain on hold and commodity prices will fall throughout the year.

Economic indicators are suggesting that the pound will continue to make inroads against the Austrian dollar therefore Australian dollar sellers buying sterling should look to make a transfer sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

GBP/AUD – Aussie struggles against Sterling (Dainel Johnson)

Can Sterling’s rally continue?

We have seen some very positive retail sales figures from down under of late, which had caused GBP/AUD to drop as low as 1.71. I am of the opinion the increase in retail sales was an anomaly due to Black Friday and the release of Apple’s iphone X. I would expect a significant drop on the next release.

Sterling has rebounded however, following a very optimistic outlook from Lord Jim O’Neill, economist and former chairman of Goldman Sachs. He has the firm belief that the UK economic back bone is strong and will recover from Brexit in a quick fashion. There has also been news from the Dutch and Spanish finance minsters that they are keen to have a close relationship with the UK post Brexit. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor made similar comments, but this had a more significant effect on GBP/AUD as Germany is considered the engine room of the EU and they are heavily reliant on the UK for their imports.

The US Treasury secretary, Stephen Mnuchin also has stated the US will be forthcoming with a trade deal.  Be wary of thinking the pound will continue to make gains against the Aussie however with phase two of Brexit talks shortly to commence the pound could well take a hit. Talks are set to be elongated and problematic. Both Davis and Barnier are at logger heads on several issues and this does not bode well for the pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC. If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

 

Retail Sales data strengthens the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Will Retail Sales data continue to be positive?

We recently witnessed a sharp fall in retail sales down under. It was the sharpest fall in four years and alarm bells were ringing. There was a serious problem with housing affordability and wage growth. The housing bubble in Australia is common knowledge with foreign investors willing to pay the inflated house prices. The natives are struggling and are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxury products.

Last month bucked the trend however. We saw a huge rise above the expectations of 0.4% to 1.2% in retail sales. The question is will this growth continue?

I would say the answer to this is sadly no. Having looked into the situation in more detail it looks as though consumers’ obsession with Apple could be the cause along with a spending frenzy on Black Friday. The launch of the iPhone X was the phone that everyone wanted.

If I was an Australian Dollar seller I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. I am of the opinion the data release was an anomaly and I think we will see a sharp fall next month. Take into account that GBP/AUD hit 1.79 recently, so current levels are very favorable.

There is unemployment figures next Thursday and it will be interesting to see if the monster run of form can continue. The last figures were the most impressive since February 2013. I would not however hang on for this release if I was selling the Aussie, a lot can happen in a week.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Australian dollar predictions

Over the last 4 weeks the Australian dollar has been making gains against sterling which is fantastic news for any client that is holding onto Australian dollars and purchasing sterling. A month ago GBPAUD reached the late 1.70s off the back of the positive news that trade negotiations can begin between the UK and EU.

However in recent weeks the Reserve Bank of Australia have announced that an interest rate hike could actually occur sooner rather than later which is a big surprise as it was only a month ago the RBA warned that an interest rate hike was unlikely to occur throughout 2018.

Many of the leading banks throughout Australia are mixed to whether a hike is likely and therefore the future trends for the Australian dollar exchange rates. For example Commonwealth Bank and UBS are optimistic however Morgan Stanley and Westpac are talking it down. Personally I believe the RBA wont want to be left to far behind the US and they may follow to suit when the US hike, therefore I would keep an eye on US interest rate decisions.

Commodity prices will also be the key driver this year for the Australian dollar which is no surprise. Again Commonwealth Bank and UBS are optimistic that Iron Ore will continue to increase where as Morgan Stanley and Westpac believe a major slowdown is on the horizon for China, which will therefore mean demand for iron ore will drop, consequently having a detrimental impact on the Australian economy and dollar. Its very difficult to predict however with growth forecasts for China suggesting a slowdown is on the horizon, I tend to lead towards Morgan Stanley and Westpac’s predictions.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling climbs slightly as political reshuffle springs no surprises (Joseph Wright)

Sterling sellers have seen a boost to the exchange rates available to them today, after the Pound is up across the board of major currency pairs even if only slightly.

This comes on a day that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet, with most moves being predictable according to political analysts.

Brexit related news is of course likely to continue to be one of the main drivers of Sterling price movements, although there are reports that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is beginning to fade. Sterling volatility is expected to wane in the short term future after a market gauge that measures expected volatility was trading at a three-year low earlier today, which means that analysts aren’t expecting to see any market swings in the upcoming months for Sterling exchange rates.

Since the Brexit GBP/AUD has lost quite a lot of value, but the pair are currently trading towards the top end of the recent trend despite GBP losing some value recently as the Aussie Dollar strengthened.

Market predictors are one thing, but I personally wouldn’t rule out a big move in either direction for GBP to AUD exchange rates in the event of a major breakthrough or stumbling block being made public in regards to the second round of Brexit negotiations.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Best rates to sell AUD for pounds in 1 month

The pound has been performing much better against most currencies lately including the Australian dollar. The GBPAUD price has recently been hitting the best time since the Referendum vote to buy AUD with pounds. However in the last week a much stronger Aussie has seen the rate drop to the 1.73’s presenting a fresh opportunity for AUD sellers looking to buy pounds. If you need to buy or sell AUD then getting your timing and the price right can save you thousands.

A much better employment report for Australia has helped the currency to rise as it makes the likelihood of any interest hike down the line more likely. The Aussie had actually been much weaker lately, in part due to speculation that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) would keep their base rate on hold for longer. The latest Unemployment news from Australia was much improved with lots of news jobs being created and participation rates increasing.

The Aussie is strong against the pound too because of fresh uncertainty over what lies ahead with the Brexit deals and we can be expected in 2018. We might have secured a deal so far for the more short term and pressing issues, but there is still a long way to go in order to see Brexit fully in full swing. This may take years and the recent improvement in the outlook for the pound, whilst welcome, can surely not be here to stay?

Next week is some further key economic data which could easily trigger market movements, overall I expect markets to be trading on political developments with Brexit. Since it is also holiday season thinner trading volumes in the market could create some extra opportunity!

If you have a transfer to make and wish to get the best rates and latest news, please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

How long will this period of Australian dollar strength against sterling?

My recent article this weekend suggested that there was a possibility that GBPAUD could reach 1.80 in the upcoming weeks and until late yesterday afternoon this prediction looked very likely. However the DUP at the close of business yesterday evening announced they are unhappy that UK Prime Minister could offer a different border control for Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK. Off the back of the news the pound lost ground against all of the G10 currencies and the Australian dollar.

Later that evening, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5%, which was no surprise, however surprisingly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary was extremely positive which strengthened the Australian dollar further against the pound. With the amount of strength we have seen for the Aussie rumors the Reserve Bank of Australia may appear to be backtracking and actually could raise interest rates early next year. If this is the case, it’s quite clear that the RBA have been jawboning in an attempt

However, I’m still of the opinion that the UK will secure some kind of deal in the upcoming weeks with the EU which will mean trade negotiations will begin in the New Year. If this is the case this period of strength for the Australian dollar against sterling could be short lived therefore I would recommend any client converting Australian dollars into sterling should look to make arrangements sooner rather than later.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Australian dollar is much weaker and could get even weaker! GBPAUD and EURAUD forecast

The Australian dollar is much weaker overall as concerns grow over the strength of the Chinese economy and also other currencies become more favourable to hold. The expectation is that for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia there will be no interest rate rise any time soon and this will see the currency weaker.

The Australia dollar is a beneficiary of improved global confidence particularly in China. China is a major economy and the strength of the Australian dollar is widely attributable to the strength and weakness of the Chinese economy. Overall impressions for the future centre around a weaker Chinese economy as evidenced by the concerns over the stock market in China which has a large public following

Concerns about the possibly negative outlook on the Chinese economy has troubled the market and this has seen Aussie weaker as a wider reflection of stability in the region.

With sterling finding much favour as the UK government makes gentle progress on Brexit and the Euro also finding form on the back of progress with German coalition talks, GBPAUD and EURAUD have both risen hitting 1.7556 and 1.5697 on the interbank rates. This is presenting excellent fresh opportunities on both currency pairs which should be monitored very closely for potential buyers.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars, global events are increasingly driving the Aussie exchange rates, as opposed to domestic news in the Australian economy. Trying to anticipate and monitor the current outlook is no easy feat but it does seem like for now the Aussie will remain weaker.

Longer term trends could easily see the Aussie regain back these losses but for Aussie holders this could prove an expensive gamble. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.