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Australian dollar predictions against sterling

Over the last two weeks the Australian dollar has been making inroads against the pound and GBPAUD exchange rates have plummeted 7 cents. To put this into monetary terms for any clients that are purchasing Australian dollars with pounds a 400,000 Australian dollar purchase will now cost just under an additional £10,000. However on the other hand for clients converting Australian dollars into pounds this is certainly something to smile about.

The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia gave no clear indication that the RBA will be  raising interest rates anytime soon however the minutes were seen as bullish as it is clear that the next move will be to follow the trend of other central banks and raise the base rate.

UK inflation data disappointed last week which has relieved some of the pressure the Bank of England were receiving. The Bank of England set an inflation goal of 2% and at present even with the drop, inflation sits at 2.6%. Many economists were predicting if inflation rose above 3% we would get clear direction from the Governor of the Bank of England and an interest rate hike early next year was likely. However with inflation now falling the chances of a rate hike have diminished.

Since the UK public decided to vote out of the EU, the pound has lost approximately 15% against all of the major currencies. Brexit negotiations I believe will continue to weigh down on the pound for the foreseeable future as I don’t believe a deal will be struck anytime soon in regards to the divorce settlement or the rights of EU citizens living in the UK.

Therefore for Australian dollar buyers purchasing currency on the back of a positive move would be my strategy as I do not foresee any substantial gains being made over the upcoming months. Australian dollar sellers may wish to take advantage of the 7 cent spike in their favour or should continue to monitor the market and try to covert in the 1.50s.

However Australian dollar sellers should be cautious as the National Bank of Australia believe the Australian dollar is overvalued which I actually agree with. At the moment currency investment continues to land on Australian shores due to the high interest rates.

The main data releases to look out for this week are UK GDP numbers Wednesday morning which are set to show a decline which could lead to further sterling weakness and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision Wednesday evening. It is unlikely the Fed will raise interest rates and I expect a neutral statement by Janet Yellen shortly after. This could lead to a further sell off of US dollars and the Australian dollar could benefit.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Will GBPAUD rise back above 1.70??

The expectation for GBPAUD exchange rate is rather mixed with the pound really struggling to make much headway following a tough week. Tuesday saw GBPAUD drop as members of the Bank of England confirmed they will not be so positive about raising interest rates. The overall belief the pound would rise if the Bank of England raise interest rates has been supporting the pound but this is now looking less likely. The Australian dollar has also been benefiting and rising because the US Federal Reserve have been slightly move dovish (soft) in their approach towards raising interest rates.

If you are buying Australian dollars with pounds there is a belief we could see 1.70 but I think it is more likely the GBPAUD rate will actually drift lower. This is because there are so many negative factors surrounding the pound and I believe market conditions are much more supportive for the Australian dollar to rise. This largely stems from the fact the Australian dollar is a commodity currency and will appreciate in value when investors seek a higher return.

If you need to buy Australian dollars with pounds the short term forecast is not looking so good. Trading conditions seem to favour sterling slipping, I mean just what would actually lead to the pound rising? Uncertainty over the Brexit and the UK economy indicates to me the pound will remain on the back foot. I also believe the Australian dollar will retain much of its strength in this current climate.

If you have a transfer to make then getting all the information available and tracking the latest trends is key to helping maximise your transfer. A 1 cent improvement on a £200,000 transfer buying Australian dollars could achieve you an extra 2000 Australian dollars!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. We are expecting some really interesting movements on the GBPAUD rates, of course it won’t be just downward, there will be spikes to take advantage but you need to be prepared! This is what we can help you to monitor and achieve.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate falls again, will the downward trend for the Pound continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar buying rate dropped again throughout today’s trading session, with the exchange rate dropping by 0.65% throughout the day up until the time of writing.

Not only are the financial markets and investors concerned about the political situation in the UK, with the outcome of the election being one of the worse case scenarios for the UK as it resulted in a Hung Parliament, but the rising rate of Inflation and lower wage growth becoming an issue that could rise to the surface very quickly.

If the rate of inflation continues to climb but the rate of wage growth continues to decline (as figures released today showed it happening for the 3rd month in a row), I think the Pound could find itself trading at a much lower rate than we’re currently witnessing.

My reasoning behind this is because the UK consumer has been propping up the UK economy since the Brexit, which has allowed the ship to steady to an extent after all the warnings from market analysts should the UK pubic have voted to leave the EU.

Should the current trend of higher costs of living in the UK continue I think the Pound may fall as I previously mentioned, and if you would like to be kept updated regarding this matter as well as any others that can potential impact GBP to AUD exchange rates, do feel free to get in touch with me.

There’s a plethora of data due out tomorrow for the UK specifically, so feel free to contact me overnight to discuss these events and how they could impact any short term currency exchange plans you may have.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling vs Australian dollar predictions (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks the pound has been falling against most of the major currencies however remains buoyant against the Australian dollar. The reason for the pounds decline is that the UK public will be visiting the polling stations once more to decide who will run the country for the next term. Past history tells us when there is an election the currency in question comes under pressure and therefore losing ground against its counterparts.

However the pound has performed relatively well against the Australian dollar as the Austrian dollar has problems of its own. It was only yesterday the Australian dollar took a battering due to further falls in iron iron prices, Australia’s largest export. Furthermore Westpac announced capital expenditure figures have disappointed and the Chinese manufacturing activity is slowing which has led to the two per cent drop in iron ore.

As there is only 6 days to the UK general election, this week I expect the pound to come under further pressure and GBPAUD exchange rates to fall back towards 1.70. Polls are narrowing and suggesting that the Conservative party won’t win a majority however I personally believe they will pull through.

If I were buying Australian dollars I would not put all of my eggs in one basket and would therefore purchase 50% before the election and 50% in the future just in case we see another shock announcement like we did 12 months ago when the public decided to vote out of the European Union.

For Australian dollar sellers the slowdown in China is not going away and I believe this will continue in the months and in fact years to come. Therefore if I had Australian dollars I expect rates to be at their most volatile towards the end of the week on the eve of the election and thats when I would make the conversion.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

Will the Australian dollar rise or fall against the pound?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has improved lately as the pound finds some better form and the Australian softens every so slightly. In the most recent communications from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), we learned that the RBA are concerned over rising house prices. We also learned that the RBA view the currency as too strong and whilst only a few weeks ago the view was that the RBA might raise interest rates later this year, for now, the direction appears to me to be fairly neutral. If you are making a GBPAUD exchange in the coming weeks I believe a big factor will be the Article 50 direction for sterling. With plenty of volatility expected nothing should be too readily assumed!

GBPAUD hit 1.59 last week as the lack of interest rate hikes in the United States presented a weaker US dollar. As the US dollar was sold off it benefitted the Australian currency as the Aussie is used by investors to benefit from its higher interest rates. By ‘parking’ funds in Australian dollars, investors have a higher rate of interest and therefore earn more on their money. Such trends help the Australian to strengthen and this partly explains some of the overall strength of the Australian dollar against the pound.

I would expect GBPAUD rates could move as much as 11 cents between the high and the low as markets digest the release of Article 50. I forecast rates between 1.56 and 1.67 depending on how the market receives the news. Because this has never happened before the scope and potential for swings are high.

If you have a transfer involving buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital. If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any transfers you may contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have worked for almost ten years assisting clients buying and selling Australian dollars for pounds and am positive I can offer some useful assistance with a really good exchange rate (above other companies) and some useful information to make an informed decision on when to buy your currency.

GBP/AUD declines further, will the pair fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is dropping in value once again against the Aussie Dollar, which in contrast to how the currency is performing against other major currencies such as the Euro or the US Dollar.

After some less than impressive US economic data releases so far this week, demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar is on the rise as the likelihood of the US Fed Reserve Bank raising interest rates 3 times this year is likely to weaken if economic data out of the US doesn’t justify it.

Planning a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar can be difficult as it’s performance depends on a number of outside factors. There are fears the Aussie could weaken as the year goes on if the US is to raise interest rates a number of times this year as demand for the US Dollar will then increase, and investors would likely move deposits from the likes of the Aussie Dollar into the US Dollar.

The Australian economy is also reliant on key trading partners such as China so a slowdown in the Chinese economy could also weigh on AUD’s value but as it stands the currency is doing particularly well.

With the Brexit process to begin next month I think there’s a chance the Pound could come under additional pressure, and we may see the mid -market level between GBP/AUD fall below 1.60.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPAUD hits 2 month lows, what next?

Sterling has dive bombed as Theresa May hints that a hard Brexit is more likely as she outlines to pursue control of law and immigration. It is notable she has stated the only mistake here are anyone who implies in advance what the PM is really seeking in negotations. So whilst this GBP weakness may turn out to be unfounded much longer term for now it seems likely to persist. GBPAUD rates could easily test 1.60 or maybe even lower.

It isn’t all bad news as there is a strong likelihood the pound will rise on the Supreme court judgement which is expected to confirm Theresa May will need to seek the approval of parliament before triggering Article 50. This should lead to sterling rising as it makes apparent the Government will not have a clear path to their goals. There are all manner of wider interests in the UK seeking to derail Theresa May’s plans and the passage through parliament will not be easy on any bills. The UK might even need another election to ‘debate’ Theresa May’s vision.

So all in all I expect the pound to remain lower against the Aussie as it makes apparent that the pound will be the driver. There has lately been lots of good news in the Australian economy with some forecasting the RBA might be forced to raise interest rates later in the year. For now the strength of the US dollar is acting as a big drag on both the the pound and Australian dollar which will present swings.

On the whole I expect this market to favour clients selling AUD for sterling and clients looking to buy Aussies with pounds need to be paying extra attention and making extra effort to avoid problems. If you wish for some assistance to monitor the exchange rates and pick the spikes then you are reading the right blog. I work as specialist currency broker helping and assisting  clients looking to buy and sell Australian dollars with the most up to date news and market insight. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading, I hope you find this useful and I welcome any feedback on the post or enquiries on GBPAUD transfers.

Jonathan

What to expect for Australian dollar buyers and sellers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks the Australian dollar has been taking a hit and many economists believe this trend will continue throughout 2017.

At present investment remains in Australia as interest rates remain high. However with forecasters suggesting that inflation will remain low this could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates early next year, which would lead to an Australia dollar sell off.

Couple this with the US Federal Reserve deciding to hike interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% Wednesday evening, throughout next year I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors move out of the Australian dollar and into the US dollar.

Another factor this could lead to further Australian dollar weakness next year is the slowdown in China. Forecasters believe growth will slow to 6.4% down from 6.7% in 2016.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

GBP/AUD returns to positive territory after the Autumn Statement offers no surprises, but where to now for the pair? (Joseph Wright)

By the end of yesterday’s trading session the GBP to AUD exchange rate was back in positive territory, trading up by over half a percent by the end of the trading day.

The Pound has gained 5% against the Aussie Dollar over the past month, making the conversion of Pounds into Aussie Dollars much more appealing than in recent months after the Pound has been under pressure since the Brexit vote back in June.

Donald Trump’s presidential election victory in the US has worked against the Aussie Dollar for a number of reasons, and since the election results the Pound has gained 10 cents on the Aussie, making a AUD 200,000 purchase £7,500 cheaper.

Moving forward I’m personally expecting commodity based currencies such as the Aussie Dollar to weaken, as now the US Presidential election is out of the way it’s likely that there will be a hike in interest rates in the US, and therefore investors are likely to move funds into the greenback and away from the riskier commodity currencies as investors will be able to achieve a return on their deposits within currencies that are considered more secure.

Despite my prediction of further Aussie weakness as we go into the new year, I think the Pound is also likely to feel the strain as the Brexit process begins. Prior to the UK chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond’s speech yesterday the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May did once again outline her plans to invoke Article 50 next year. Do expect the Pound is react negatively to any talk of a ‘Hard’ or early Brexit.

There were no surprises during yesterday’s Autumn Statement and although the Pound was unmoved during the speech, afterwards the Pound did get a boost across the board.

Interestingly this week, Westpac (a major Australian Bank) have offered price targets on the GBP/AUD pair suggesting there will be another decline for the Pound, with the pair likely to drop to 1.6250 in the short term which is 6 cents lower than its current level.

If you are planning on making a currency exchange between GBP and AUD, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will GBPAUD now hit 1.70?

Most clients buying Australian dollars are very interested to see the improvements but the real question is what can we expect next? If you are looking to buy the Australian dollar with the pound most clients are now looking at a much improved position with the latest rise in the value of pound and a weaker AUD. The big question is now will it carry on higher and present some fresh opportunities?

Personally I feel sterling is overvalued and we could very soon see the pound start to fall back again in value. The recent move is principally down to Donald Trump getting into power and a perception this will bode well for the UK moving forward. Despite lots of good news on the pound because of this I cannot see any material changes in policy which leads me to think any clients relying on these moves to remain sustainable for the future should proceed with caution.

If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars I am of the opinion the pound will come under further pressure in the future and this will greatly weaken the pound making it more expensive to buy Australian dollars. Next week is the latest news from the Autumn Statement by the UK Chancellor which is likely to have an impact on the pound.

Next week we also have a lot of new UK data which I don’t believe will be favourable including UK GDP and government Borrowing figures. I expect attention to return to the UK which will weigh on the pound.

Investors are betting heavily the US will raise their interest rate and this has weakened the Aussie for now. The trend might easily shift to GBP weakness rather than AUD weakness, this market is very tough to accurately predict. If you have a transfer to make please speak to me about all of your options and the best way to protect yourself by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk