Tag Archives: Best GBP/AUD exchange rates
Important events on the Australian dollar this week
The Australian dollar exchange rate has been volatile in the last few weeks owing to the uncertainty over the future direction we will see on a number of factors. These include the Trade Wars with China and also the outcome from the latest economic data in Australia. Investors are expecting us to see the Australian currency closely reacting to developments on these issues, the immediate outlook is not clear.
China’s economic performance is a key indicator of the Australian dollar as investors track its progress with a view to better understanding where events will turn next. One of the key factors in all of this will be the next steps that the Trade Wars take with investors feeling any negative news would see the Australian dollar weaker.
Overnight are two speeches by RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, members which will carry some weight in the market. The actions and comments by the central bank are very important in providing some direction on which way the currency will perform in the week ahead. Most notably ahead is the speeches by Assistant Governor Bullock and also Debelle, either of which could prove most interesting for the Aussie.
Last week, there was some more positive Unemployment data released which will have had a more swaying impact on future economic policy from the RBA. Other news I would foresee as being instrumental in shaping the likelihood of market fluctuations will be the ECB interest rate decision. The European Central Bank will provide some insight into their own future monetary policy as well which will influence global risk sentiment.
In targeting a higher interest rate over the longer term, the Australian dollar exchange rate could lose value if investors look to try and shift towards the potentially higher yielding Euro.
If you have a currency transfer involving the Australian dollar and wish to learn of some of the latest market news, please do not hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson directly.
Jonathan Watson
What can we expect next for the Australian dollar?
The expectation is the for the Australian dollar to continue to face headwinds as the market tries to assess its attractiveness over the longer term. With Australia struggling whilst some other assets become more attractive, the pressure is on for the antipodean currency. Having lost value in recent weeks as market expectations deteriorate, what can we expect in the short term?
To answer some of the questions over the Australian dollar’s recent performance look no further than the United States. A key factor in this has been two fold from the US with raising interest rates and the Trade Wars both weighing on the performance of the Aussie dollar.
In raising interest rates to 2.25%, the US dollar is now a much more attractive currency to be holding from an investors point of view, versus the 1.5% on offer from Australia. With regard to the future prospects in this department, it appears likely that the US will be continuing to raise interest rates. This will only increase the trend we have seen of late and continue the pressure on the Australian currency.
On the subject of Trade Wars, these do not appear to be diminishing and therefore the Australian dollar should remain under pressure as these potentially intensify or remain in place. Expectations for the Australian dollar will continue to focus on its attractiveness to hold but with these issues continuing and wider concerns in the global economy about just what lies ahead, the Aussie might find more troubled waters ahead.
Next week is Unemployment data which will be a big driver on the exchange rate and could see a shift. There is a focus on Australian interest rates too and we could easily see this data impacting future decisions. Whilst no hikes are likely down under anytime soon, this is a more short term factor to move rates.
Thank you for reading this post and I would be delighted to speak to you if you have a currency transaction to make in the coming weeks. Please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.
Price changes for GBP/AUD likely to be driven by the Pound over the next 24-hours
Those of our clients and regular readers following the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate should pay close attention to UK politics today, as I believe the next spike in the GBP/AUD’s value is likely to be driven by UK politics.
Yesterday all eyes were on Boris Johnson’s speech at the Conservative Party Conference, and he didn’t disappoint as he gave another harsh critique of the ‘Chequers plan’ devised by the current UK Prime Minister, Theresa May. Today there could be movement for Sterling exchange rates against all major currency pairs as it’s the final day of the Conservative Party Conference, and Theresa May is scheduled to speak with Brexit being the main focus.
Yesterday Boris Johnson was supportive of May’s leadership but he once again urged her to move away from the Chequers plan she has devised and suggested that she focuses more on a Canadian style deal. I expect her to be questioned on his comments and the markets to follow her responses closely. With Brexit now just around the corner and expectations of a deal being in place by November, I expect to see Brexit headlines dominate financial media and for it to be the main driver of the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate.
On the Australian side we’ve seen the currency soften over the past year, mostly owing to Aussie Dollar weakness. The greater the gap between US and Australian exchange rates the more likely this trend will continue, so those following the strength of the Aussie Dollar should also pay attention to US monetary policy and this is something we can help our readers with should they wish.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Will the Australian dollar rise or fall in September?
The Australian dollar is likely to come under increasing pressure in my opinion, as we approach a series of important domestic events in Australia and also some global issues which might driver its value. At home, concerns over the political outlook from a fractured government combine with concerns about the economy. Abroad the Trade Wars between Trump and China puts pressure on the Chinese economy, Australia’s biggest trading partner.
The Australian dollar has typically attracted investment from abroad owing to its high interest rates, a currency’s value can often be determined by the yield or return available to investors. Expectations for the Australian dollar are now lower with the US raising interest rates to a level now higher than Australia. Even the UK and Eurozone, both scarred by political and economic uncertainties in recent years, are on a path to raise interest rates.
This puts the Australian dollar on the back foot and means it cannot perform as well as it has done in recent years. Australian interest rates reached a peak of 4.75% but are now currently 1.75%. This has generally made the Australian dollar a less attractive currency to hold and I believe this will continue.
Some of the fundamental factors driving the currency markets are good indicators of future performance. The fundamentals on interest rates suggest that Australia will not be raising before either the UK, possibly the Eurozone and certainly not before the US. This will mean these currencies become more attractive to hold and might gain against the Aussie.
Political concerns in Australia have not diminished in Australia and these could see further weakness for the currency in the future. Wider global concerns could also be felt by the escalation of tensions from the Trade Wars in China, there is plenty to weaken the Aussie down the line.
If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars then please do not hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.
Jonathan Watson
Downward trend for GBP/AUD continues, is a move towards 1.70 now a possibility?
The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has been weakening ever since hitting its highest level of the year back in April of this month. Back then the rate was 1.8450 and at the time of writing the rate has since dropped to levels 10-cents lower than this.
This price movement can be attributed to a number of reasons, with Brexit uncertainties perhaps at the top of the list. When the Pound was trading at its 2018 high vs the Aussie Dollar this was back when there appeared to be a clearer Brexit plan along with expectations of interest rate hikes. Since then although there has been a rate hike the Brexit plan has become unclear with infighting amongst the current government, a number of key resignations and also the probability of a ‘No Brexit Deal’ overtaking the chances of a deal being in place when Brexit begins next year.
AUD exchange rates have also benefited now that US – China trade talks have eased, as Australia is likely to be negatively affected if a trade war heats up and global trade slows. The close proximity to China is another reason for AUD sellers to be weary of this topic as China is also Australia’s biggest trading partner.
Moving forward Brexit is likely to be the biggest market mover for the pair, although there are economic data releases that can influence the rates. This week at 9.30am UK time there will be the release of Public Sector Net Borrowing cost for July. This figure will be out of the UK and an increasing figure on the previous one is likely to result in a downward movement for the Pound.
Also on Tuesday is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes report which could also result in market movement. There are no interest changes expected from the RBA until next year, but expect any allusions to result in market movement.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Turkish situation helps the Pound (Daniel Johnson)
GBP/AUD – Sterling has gained ground against against the Aussie of late. I would not put this down to Sterling strength however. I think the rise in the Pounds value can be attributed to a lack of investor confidence in commodity based currencies following the situation in Turkey.
With the severe fall in Turkish Lira and the lack of monetary policy intervention investors have been seeking safe haven investments. If the US-Turkish trade war escalates this could again have knock on affects to the Australian Dollar. We have seen the situation ease in the last 24hrs as Qatar have offered financial support to Turkey.
Despite the Australian monetary policy outlook not being particularly favorable the uncertainty on the Brexit situation outweighs any concerns for the Australian economy.
GBP/AUD now sits just above 1.75. I believe there is potential for Sterling to fall further due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. With a “no deal” scenario still a possibility the Pound remains anchored at low levels against the majority of major currencies.
If you have to move short term buying the Aussie I would take advantage of current levels.
If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.
If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.
To what extent will Turkish sentiments drive GBPAUD this week?
The Australian dollar has been weakening as investor sentiments are frayed following the Turkish concerns which have been rattling financial markets. Essentially riskier assets are being sold off in favour of safer haven investments like the US dollar and Japanese Yen. The Turkish currency is being sold off and the funds are finding their way into the US dollar, creating big swings on other currencies like the Aussie.
GBPAUD has risen almost 1% today as investors also sell the Australian dollar because they feel it could also be at the mercy of the same sentiments which have driven the Turkish lira lower. For many years the cheap flow of money from the US in the form of QE (Quantiative Easing) had found itself invested globally in emerging markets which offered higher returns.
With the market becoming spooked at the potential of further sell-offs, we could easily see a further deterioration in the Australian dollar which would see it become more expensive to buy. The outlook is not all rosy for AUD buyers with sterling however, as the rising US dollar is weighing the pound down too.
GBPAUD could be in for a very volatile period as the market struggles to price in the uncertainty up ahead. The market is eagerly looking for some kind of solution to the crisis which could easily spread to other investments and currencies. The problems in Turkey are not just effecting Turkey, many European banks have huge exposure to Turkish investments.
There is also important data due for the UK with Unemployment Tuesday, Inflation on Wednesday and Retail Sales Thursday. On the Australian side we have Unemployment data released Thursday, all in all a busy week ahead for GBPAUD.
I foresee a levels in the mid-1.70’s following a testing of the 1.73 level last week. In the absence of a new negative news I see sterling finding some support, the Turkish pressures should also ensure the Australian dollar is not appreciating too much.
For more information on the best rates and strategy to maximise your deal, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.
GBP/AUD no longer testing 1.80, is a move down into the lower 1.70’s now likely?
After testing the 1.80 mark for a number of weeks, the Pound has recently slipped from these high levels and now the pair are trading closer to 1.75. The 1.80 level does appear to be a resistance and for some time now Sterling sellers would have been best to target their transfers when the mid-market level is as close to 1.80 as possible.
Uncertainty surrounding the UK governments Brexit plans and whether they will be agreed upon in time is behind the drop in the Pound’s value. The fall hasn’t just been against the Aussie Dollar but also against many other major currency pairs with the fall against the US Dollar being one of the most dramatic, as it’s hit a 10-month low.
This week it’s emerged that the Australian jobs market is alot healthier than expected after a substantial amount more jobs were created in May than expected. This has boosted the Aussie Dollar as up until this week the average amount of new jobs was just 16,000 monthly.
One potential downside for the Aussie Dollar is the lack of movement with regards to monetary policy, as the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t plan on amending interest rates this year.
With many major economies beginning to make the hikes the Aussie Dollar may lose value as investors opt not to hold funds in AUD.
With little economic data out of Australia for the remainder of the week, our readers have time to get in touch and plan around transfers next week. Do feel free to get in touch if you would like to discuss next week’s economic data releases and how they could impact the rates.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBPAUD remains range bound
Over the last 30 days GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated in the higher 1.70s with minimal movement as both currencies seem to have been devaluing at the same pace. At the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting officials showed concern in regards to the trade tariffs that have been imposed on China by the US. The Australian know that a slowdown in China will have an impact on the Australian economy. Furthermore the International monetary fund have waded into the debate and announced an all out trade war will end up costing the global economy over $430bn.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is under extreme pressure and last night threatened Tory rebels that she would call a general election if the amendment in regards to the customs union went through the Commons. The uncertainty of another General election would certianly weigh on the pounds value. Furthermore Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney also failed to help the pounds value yesterday, as he stated a Brexit no deal would mean the Bank of England would have to rethink their future plans.
At the end of the week, UK politicians break for the summer holidays, therefore I expect Brexit related news to go quiet for a few weeks. All eyes will turn to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision early August. The market has been pricing in a hike, however I expect the Bank of England will fail to deliver which will mean sterling takes a hit. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD fall back towards the mid 1.70s over the next month.
If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.
