Tag Archives: Best GBP/AUD exchange rates

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in October?

The pound to Australian dollar rate is looking more and more fragile in recent weeks yet has remained in the higher 1.60’s and even over 1.70 since the beginning of September. With wage growth a concern and consumer confidence starting to slip there is a growing concern there will not be any interest rate hikes for some time down under. This has seen the Australian dollar weaker as investor debate the next move from the RBA, further weakness on the Australian dollar would not be too surprising at all.

Buying Australian dollars with pounds has become much less costly in the last month as the pound surged on an expectation the Bank of England might raise interest rates next month. Coupled with mounting concerns over the dates for any possible Australian interest rate hikes GBPAUD climbed to some of the best rates since June.

Despite the inherent uncertainty over Brexit the pound is much better supported on renewed belief the UK Government under Theresa May will deliver Brexit. With a transitional period being discussed to extend the time frame for when the UK legally leaves the EU, there is now scope for the pound to find more support.

Whilst uncertainty over Brexit and a renewed confidence in the Aussie could see us shift lower in the the mid 1.60’s or even lower, for now the outlook seems to favour GBPAUD in a range of 1.68-1.73, I see it finding supporting above 1.70 in the next few weeks.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollar making plans around these key events is vital to getting the best deals. If you wish to discuss your transfer in more detail please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

More of case of Sterling weakness the Aussie strength (Daniel Johnson)

BOE Rate hike based on misleading data

After GBP/AUD breached 1.70 which is considered to be a resistance point many hoped for further Sterling gains. Unfortunately this window of opportunity was small. Mark Carney the governor of the Bank of England (BOE) stated there is the possibility of a UK interest hike as early as November. I am of the opinion there is not enough justification for a hike as inflation is moving at a rapid pace and average wage growth is actually declining. He has used unemployment levels a  positive for the economy, being touted as the best levels since the 70s, but there has only recently been the introduction of zero hour contracts.

UK politics anchoring the pound

Although we have seen gains for the Aussie of late I am of the opinion this is more down to Sterling weakness than Australian Dollar strength. After the debacle that was Theresa May’s speech at the conservative party conference there have been calls for a new leadership election. Former Tory party chairman, Grant Shapps has mentioned that there are as many as thirty MPs who wish too oust May from her position. Now six months into her tenure you would have hoped she would now be in a stable position, but it is far from it. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question so this situation does not bode well for the pound.

AUD Retail Sales

As mentioned earlier I believe the gains fro the Aussie are due to Sterling weakness rather than AUD strength, this is highlighted by the lack movement in favour of the pound following the worst Australian retails sales data in over four years.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) assistant governor Guy Debelle is due to speak during the night and he does have the power to influence the markets. If he mentions monetary policy moving forward we could see volatility on the exchange. I would expect him to be dovish in terms of any potential rate hikes due to low wage growth, low consumer spending and increasing household debt.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Australian Dollar recovers against the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Australia’s worst retail sales data in four years

Early in the week we saw some quite poor economic data from down under. Retail sales data which was predicted to come in at a 0.3% up, it actually dropped by 0.6% and the pound benefitted as a result. This was the worst retail sales data for four years. It seems consumers have made cuts due high levels of personal debt in goods such as furniture, clothing and food.

Interest rates were kept on hold at 1.5% due to high debt levels, poor inflation and a slow down in wage growth. Despite this I am still of the opinion the UK economy is in a much worse position due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and a lack of political stability.

May fails to unite the Conservatives

Sterling’s rally quickly ended following the debacle which was Theresa May’s speech.  Her aim was to unite the party and bring stability to the conservatives. I think it was close to the opposite.
She coughed throughout  the speech and party posters fell on the floor to add insult to injury. A member of the public managed to breach security and hand her a P45 which had a fake Boris Johnson signature inscribed. In house bickering and the uncertainty of May’s job is not helping the pound. Political uncertainty will almost certainly impact the currency in question. A client of mine said it was so bad it seemed as though it was a sketch from Yes! Prime minister.

The bookmaker Betway have slashed odds to 5/6 that May will no longer be in power by the next general election.

On the Aussie front we could see further gains due to increased demand for Australia’s biggest export Iron ore. I am of the opinion Sterling is in a bad spot and we could see further losses short to medium term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Further falls for the Australian dollar (Dayle Littlejohn)

Many economists globally are expecting the Australian dollar to come under further pressure for the rest of the year as the US begin to reverse the bad run seen over the last 6 months. It’s been widely publicized that the Federal Reserve are likely to raise interest rates in December. If this materializes the overpriced Australian dollar is likely to devalue as currency speculators move out of the risky commodity currency and into the safe haven US dollar for higher returns on their investments.

In regards to GBPAUD exchange rates the pound has been losing momentum against the Australian dollar over the last 5 trading days as yearly GDP numbers fell to 1.5% from 1.7%, mortgage approvals were down by 3,000, markit manufacturing fell from 56.9 to 55.9 and PMI construction fell from 51.1 to 48.1. However the Bank of England are suggesting an interest rate hike could occur as early as next month which could provide further opportunity for Austrian dollar buyers.

This evening Australia are set to release retail sales numbers, trade balance, including import and export numbers and RBA assistant Governor Debelle’s speech. For more information on how these data releases impacted the market feel free to drop me an email and I will respond tomorrow morning.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

 

Will GBPAUD continue to rise this month?

The pound made considerable gains against the Australian dollar throughout September due to the Bank of England’s stance surrounding future interest rates and the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that an interest rate hike could occur as early as November and currency speculators have purchased the pound in anticipation.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australian Philip Lowe confirmed that an interest rate hike anytime soon is unlikely as they do not want to see household debt rise further.

In other news iron ore prices in Austrian have been taking a tumble in recent weeks. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export and when iron ore prices fall this tends to mean the Austrian dollar follows suit. If iron ore continues to decline I expect buying Austrian dollars will become cheaper in the upcoming weeks.

Another factor that will have a major impact on GBPAUD exchange rates is Brexit developments. Currently Brexit negotiations have stalled once again as UK and EU negotiations cannot come to an agreement in regard to the divorce settlement or EU citizens rights once the UK depart the EU. This could be a story that has a positive or negative impact on the pound.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

RBA and BOA in very different positions in regards to Interest Rate Strategy (Daniel Johnson)

BOE indicate possible Interest rate hike

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England has recently stated there is the strong possibility of an interest rate hike in the coming months. The justification behind this move however is dubious. Inflation is at 2.9%.

Inflation is only healthy for an economy provided average wage growth is moving at a similar pace. This is not the case, latest figures showed a decline to 2.1%. If goods and services are more expensive and consumers are making less money there could well be reluctance to spend. This is when there could be the potential for recession. So why encourage consumers to save by raising rates when you should be encouraging consumers to spend?

Unemployment has also been cited as justification for a rate hike. These are being lauded as the best figures since the 70’s, but this release is misleading as zero hour contracts have recently been introduced and will make up a significant chunk of this data.

The MPC who vote on interest rates voted 7-2 in favor of keeping rates on hold this month. Is such a big swing possible by November?

Still, investors are biting with GBP/AUD consistently breaking 1.70 and Carney is doubtful to change his stance during today’s speech.

RBA concerned about Australian Dollar strength

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) entirely different predicament, whereby the strength of the Aussie is cause for concern. The primary export for Australia is iron ore, Australia is heavily reliant on the Chinese purchasing this raw material. The strength of the Aussie and dwindling growth from China is a real threat to long term economic health. Philip Lowe the head of the RBA has attempted to talk down the value of the currency but has not had the same success as Carney. If you are buying AUD, I am of the opinion maximising your return will depend on your times scale.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Is the Aussie Dollars bullish run coming to an end? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is continuing its recovery against the Aussie Dollar, with the rate rising above the 1.70 mark once again and this time almost hitting 1.72 at its highest point during today’s trading session.

I believe this change in direction for the pair can be put down to both Sterling strength as the pound is also putting in some strong performance against other major currency pairs. This is likely due to Brexit headlines and uncertainties not being in the spotlight which has been a welcome change for those hoping to exchange their Pounds at more competitive levels.

The upward movement for GBP/AUD has also been aided by the weakening Aussie Dollar which had previously been one of the strongest performers of the year.

The drop in the Aussie dollars value can be put down to a slowdown in Chinese growth, falling commodity prices such a iron ore which is key for AUD, and also talk of the Reserve Bank of Australia not planning on hiking interest rates until 2019 which is in start contrast to the Bank of England who have alluded to hike as soon as next month.

Tomorrow morning there will be a key data release out of the UK as UK GDP will be released around 9.30am. If this figure deviates from the expectation we could see further movement, so feel free to get in touch with me if you wish to be kept updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

When will the RBA raise rates? (and how will this affect the pound to Aussie rate)

The pound to Australian dollar has become more comfortable above 1.70 lately but we are still having trouble sticking above it. My personal belief is that the pound to Australian dollar rate will rise higher through the 1.70’s as the lack of any interest rate cut down under, and the increased prospect of one in the UK, causes the rate to rise. I therefore think it could be many years before we see a rate hike in Australia and agree with some more recent commentators who state it will be 2019 not 2018 before we see the next hike.

The Australian dollar is already weaker as markets agree that any hike next year is less likely, the strength in growth and employment in the Australian economy is high but many question for how long it will last. With savings rates having dwindled in recent years Australians are having to save even more and this will impact consumer spending. The very strong housing market is a cause for concern but raising interest rates won’t necessarily help the boom, but it will make getting on the ladder even trickier for new home buyers and make mortgages more expensive.

Whilst I do not think the UK will raise rates as quick as many expect (some pencil in November) I do expected much increased rhetoric around the topic over the next couple of months and this could well send sterling higher. If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars this shift will not occur in a straight line, we will undoubtedly see a rather volatile path.

GBPAUD could easily rise to say 1.76 or 1.80 at the top end in the next two months before as UK rates expectations cool and the prospect of any Australian hikes become clearer, see the rate back into the lower 1.70’s or even sub 1.70 again.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds and wish to get some insight into market movements and strategy to maximise your currency exchange we can help with a personal service and excellent rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your situation.

Could we see further advances for Sterling against the Australian Dollar? (Daniel Johnson)

May misses and opportunity to boost investor confidence

On Friday we Theresa May speaking Florence in regards to the current stance for Brexit talks. It was widely anticipated that she would provide some form of clarity on how negotiations are set to proceed. We expected to hear on the amount the UK were set to pay to leave the EU, time scale and whether we would be looking at a hard or soft Brexit.  This was a clear opportunity for May to calm investors and give a positive outlook on the pending negotiations, she failed. GBP dropped in value following a fall in investor confidence with negotiations now looking to take a lot longer than the two year target. May also announced “no deal was better than a bad deal.” The potential o fa rate hike is what is causing Sterling to gain strength, however I am of the opinion this is not justified. Wage growth is down, inflation is up and unemployment data is not as impressive as some perceive sue to the introduction of zero hour contracts.

Governor of the RBA not convinced on the health of the Australian Economy

We have seen GBP/AUD above 1.70 today which is a key resistance point. There is still room for potential gains for the pound against the Aussie, although I do not think we will breach 1.75 short term. The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe is not as optimistic as some in regards to the future of the Australian economy. Iron ore, Australia’s primary export is is down in value and Australia’s biggest trade partner, China have recently has their credit rating down graded. Australia also has a similar problem to the UK with wage growth down. If there are rapid rises inflation this could cause problems, if consumers can’t afford to pay over inflated prices the economy will suffer.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.