Tag Archives: Best GBP/AUD exchange rates

US/China Trade War hurting AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar Forecast

AUD  has proved fragile of late due to several contributing factors. There are domestic issues, such as the high value of living in high wage growth areas. This is causing Australian residents to cut back on retail spending. One of the key issues at present is the knock on effect from the US/China trade war.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing its’s goods and any effect on Chinese growth can have ramifications on the Australian economy. As the trade war escalates so does the potential for the Australian dollar to weaken. President Trump has recently implemented a further 10% tariff on $300bln worth of Chinese products. The Chinese have retaliated by urging  Chinese businesses  to cease purchasing US agricultural products.

Goldman Sachs believe the trade war could continue for some time which does not bode well for the global economy let alone for Australia who has close economic ties with China.

There is the possibility of further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2019 according to the bank Governor, Philip Lowe. This could cause movement for the Australian dollar.

Despite the problems surrounding the Australian economy unfortunately it seems that the problems surrounding Brexit outweigh those down under. Until there is some sort of clarity surrounding the Brexit debacle, I can find  little reason to justify significant gains for the pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 19yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast (Daniel Johnson)

Inflation & US/China trade war a concern for Australian Dollar Investors

The Pound has lost ground against the Australian Dollar of late which can be largely attributed to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit.  Australia has had it’s own trouble however.  Inflation continues to be a problem down under and it is still some way behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s  (RBA) 2-3% target. The RBA cut rates earlier in the year to 1% in an attempt to combat inflation and there is the possibility of further rate cuts during 2019. The next interest rate decision is due during the early hours of tomorrow and although rates are expected to remain unchanged the statement following the decision from the RBA could influence markets if it is again reiterated there is the possibility of further cuts later down the road.

The heavy reliance on China purchasing Australia’s exports is also causing problems for the Australian Dollar. As the US impose increased tariffs on China, China’s growth slows which in turn has a knock on effect to the Australian economy. Investors are choosing to move away from riskier commodity based currencies in favour of save haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or US Dollar.

Increasing probability of a Brexit No Deal

Despite the problems in Australia, Sterling still could face further losses. Boris continues to threaten no deal and stated last week he would be ‘turbocharging’ preparations to leave the EU without a deal. Boris is using the threat of a no deal as ammunition to gain a more favourable deal on Brexit. Basically speaking however, the higher the probability of a no deal the weaker you would expect the Pound to become. Brussels stance remains unchanged again reiterating there will be no concessions to the current deal on the table. It is not in Brussels interest to let the UK leave with a decent deal, they do not want other members of the bloc to consider following suit.

The timeline is also a concern. The parliamentary recess concludes 3rd September leaving less than 8 weeks to get a deal in place, keep in mind Theresa May had two and a half years. According to Bet Fair there is a 57% chance of a general election, if you look at when previous elections have taken place the currency in question tends to considerably weaken.  The British 2010 general election serves as testament to this.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are authorised with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading

GBP/AUD rate remain under pressure as Bank of England cuts growth forecast

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate remains close to the lowest levels seen in over 6-months as pressure continues to mount on the Pound across the board of major currency pairs. Since becoming Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ramped up the no-deal Brexit rhetoric and this has rattled the markets which has seen the Pound lose considerable value over the past month or so as his appointment as Prime Minister became a forgone conclusion.

Yesterday the Bank of England opted to hold interest rates where they currently are, but the highlight of the day was BoE governor Mark Carney’s warnings regarding the economic outlook for the UK economy now that a no-deal is looking increasingly likely.

The BoE now expects to see a 33% chance of a recession due to Brexit uncertainty, and earlier in the day the new government outlined plans to spend up to £2.1bn on no-deal Brexit preparations which demonstrates the intent of the new government.

The growth forecast for the UK this year has been cut to 1.3% from the previous 1.6% expectations, and much of the slowing economy is being put down to both uncertainty as well as a lack of foreign investment.

Moving forward we could also see the Aussie Dollar come under pressure, as this week US President Donald Trump has outlined plans for additional tariffs on China and trade talks between the two appear to have stalled once again which has seen a global stock market sell-off. A slowing of the Chinese economy would likely result in a weaker AUD due to the interconnectedness of the two economies.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Aussie Dollar boosted by better than expected Chinese data, could GBP/AUD test its annual lows anytime soon?

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate continues to slide as pressure mounts on Sterling now that the talk of a no-deal Brexit is ramping up. Boris Johnson, the UK’s new Prime Minister has now been PM for just over a week and already during this time we’ve seen sentiment towards Sterling drop as fears of a shock to the economy later in the year and taking their toll on the currency.

GBP/AUD has some distance to fall yet before we begin seeing annual lows, but Sterling has been in the headlines over the past week as GBP/USD has hit a 28-month low and GBP/EUR has hit a 22-month so Sterling is finding itself int he news for the wrong reasons.

The lowest the GBP/AUD exchange rate has been in the past 52-weeks is 1.7210 and at the time of writing it’s currently 1.7635, so as you can see there a bit further for GBP/AUD to fall before it catches up with some of the other major currency pairs. The Australian Dollar has been boosted this morning as Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in July which is a slight improvement on the June figure and also better than expected. Investors won’t get carried away though as the figure remains below the 50 expansion/contraction benchmark. Strong data released out of China is likely to have a positive effect on the Aussie Dollar due to the link between the two economies, so those of our readers following the AUD’s value should look out for Chinese data.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP to AUD rate expected to continue its decline this week

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has begun the week just north of the 1.80 benchmark level, which is around 3-cents lower than where the pair begun the week last week. There haven’t been many reasons for the Pound to climb in recent weeks and I think that until there is a new PM in place we could continue to see the political uncertainty continue to weigh on the Pound’s value which could push the GBP/AUD pair below the 1.80 level.

There will be a Reserve Bank of America meeting tomorrow and there are expectations of another interest rate cut, but as markets expect this amendment it’s already priced into the value of the Aussie Dollar. Despite this expected cut AUD is strengthening so I don’t expect to see the Aussie Dollar drop in value in it takes place, but I do expect to see the Aussie Dollar strengthen if the cut doesn’t take place.

Aside from this meeting the Aussie Dollar is being influenced at the moment but the US President’s trip to Asia, as not only has there been some positive developments between the US and China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, but we have also witnessed the first meeting on North Korean soil between a US President and North Korean leader and this has buoyed the markets. This kind of news is likely to further boost the Aussie Dollar, as it tends to gain in value in times of positive global updates due being a commodity currency.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar Forecast : Will the Australian dollar rise or fall in July?

The Australian dollar has been under some scrutiny as the market gears itself up for two major events which might move the market, there is a growing pressure regarding the uncertainty surrounding the G20 Summit, plus an uncertainty surrounding the outlook from the RBA. The Australian dollar is driven through a variety of domestic and global events, I would not be surprised to see a turbulent week in early July.

There is a very important G20 meeting taking place currently, which may see the Trade Wars topic being discussed, a key factor on the Australian dollar rate since it links back to sentiments on global trade. The Trade Wars have seen the Aussie rise in fall in value, as the market appreciates or dislikes the progress and develops on the trade issues. As a major exporter to China, the Australian economy is sensitive to any news that might help or hinder the Chinese economy.

Domestically, the prospect of Australia lowering rates could see the currency weaker, as the RBA seek to cut interest rates following some weaker inflation data and concerns about the Australian economy. The Australian economy has been waning under various pressures, including the fact its economy has been growing without recession for 27 years. At some point the economy will suffer and struggle, much of the growth in Australia is attributable to China and its dominance, signs of a slowdown could see the RBA cutting interest rates next month.

All in all, it looks like a very interesting time for the Australian currency. The market is becoming increasingly concerned over the future outlook for the Australian economy domestically but also how global events will shape the market. If you have a transfer to make in the coming days, months and weeks, please don’t hesitate to speak to me directly to learn what else is driving the market.

Thank you for reading and best wishes.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Further rate cuts from the RBA could push AUD exchange rates lower, even against the struggling Pound!

The Australian economy is continuing to show signs of struggling despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts to mitigate the slowdown, after the RBA cut rates down to the lowest level in it’s history at the beginning of last month. As it stands the base rate of interest sits at 1.25% and there are some market commentators that now believe that the rate could be cut again at least once this year, which some outlining the next cut coming as soon as next month on the 18th of July, which will be the central banks next opportunity to make the decision.

Westpac Bank, which is one of the biggest lenders down under believes that there could be two cuts this year, which demonstrates the perceived weakness in the outlook for the Aussie economy moving forward. Inflation levels are stagnant in Australia and the unemployment level has also been picking up. Property prices have dropped quite dramatically throughout the major cities also and there are no concerns surrounding the construction sector so we could continue to see a sell off in the AUD’s value if these predictions materialise.

The main driver of the Pound will continue to be the Conservative leadership contest which will determine the UK’s next Prime Minister, and also the route for Brexit. Boris Johnson remains the frontrunner, and his outlook differs from that of Jeremy Hunt’s so we could see volatility for the Pound regarding this matter.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Growth data causes Investor Concern (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

The Australian Dollar has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The most significant catalyst for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the US/China trade war. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and due to this any slow down in growth in China will have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The Trump administration has placed significant tariffs on Chinese goods and China has retaliated with it’s own tariffs. The trade war is set to escalate and could be ongoing which does not bode well for the Aussie. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export to China and at present demand remains healthy which is good news for the Aussie, that is not to say this situation will last however.

Due to global economic uncertainty investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in favour of safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the US Dollar.

There are economic problems down under such as consumer spending and the cost of living in high wage growth areas such as Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates this month to 1.25% and there is the potential for further cuts.

The Australian economy is growing at its slowest rate in almost a decade, which has fuelled speculation surrounding how long Australia will sustain its run of over 27 years without a recession.

Despite the situation down under I believe the  problems in the UK outweigh that of those down under. We currently have no PM and are in complete Brexit limbo. If Boris gets in the probability of a no deal could increase as he will be using this scenario as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from Brussels. A no deal is the investors worst fear and has the potential to cause further woes for Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Australian dollar forecast: Will the RBA cut their interest rates again?

The Australian dollar is weaker this week, following the news that Australian employment data, whilst reasonably positive, was not inspiring enough to majorly turn the tide on the Australian currency. With the outlook on interest rates shifting following very poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which recently came in at a decade low, the Reserve Bank of Australia might well be looking to cut their interest rates once again ahead.

I am concerned about some of the more global issues that will influence the Australian dollar too, the prospect of the trade wars deteriorating ahead could be a major concern for the currency. It is likely that the Australian dollar will suffer as investors are fearful over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, this weekend’s G20 Summit will be key in determining what happens next.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar, making some careful plans in advance is usually a good idea to try and help mitigate the uncertainty. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar will often rise and fall on the waning attitudes to global risk and trade. Donald Trump is a real wildcard here and his constant to and fro on the trade wars, is harming sentiment.

Next week, is a series of important economic releases with the Governor of the RBA, looking to make a speech plus the latest RBA Meeting Minutes. In providing information on what lies ahead, we will learn of the latest news and developments we might expect. I predict that Lowe will have to keep the door open to further cuts and this could see the Aussie weaker.

Looking at the general trend and trajectory on the trade wars, I think the Australian dollar could lose more ground ahead. Expectations are mixed over what to expect this weekend, any signs of agreement between Trump and China, could provide some shorter-term relief for the Aussie. However, I do feel that any improvement in sentiment will only be short-term, and there will continue to be a longer net negative concern from the trade wars which will affect the Australian dollar.

Thank you for reading my post and should you have a Australian currency transfers that you wish for assistance with, I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategy to assist with the best rates and timings.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.