Tag Archives: Best GBP/AUD exchange rates

Australian Growth data causes Investor Concern (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

The Australian Dollar has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The most significant catalyst for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the US/China trade war. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and due to this any slow down in growth in China will have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The Trump administration has placed significant tariffs on Chinese goods and China has retaliated with it’s own tariffs. The trade war is set to escalate and could be ongoing which does not bode well for the Aussie. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export to China and at present demand remains healthy which is good news for the Aussie, that is not to say this situation will last however.

Due to global economic uncertainty investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in favour of safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the US Dollar.

There are economic problems down under such as consumer spending and the cost of living in high wage growth areas such as Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates this month to 1.25% and there is the potential for further cuts.

The Australian economy is growing at its slowest rate in almost a decade, which has fuelled speculation surrounding how long Australia will sustain its run of over 27 years without a recession.

Despite the situation down under I believe the  problems in the UK outweigh that of those down under. We currently have no PM and are in complete Brexit limbo. If Boris gets in the probability of a no deal could increase as he will be using this scenario as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from Brussels. A no deal is the investors worst fear and has the potential to cause further woes for Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Australian dollar forecast: Will the RBA cut their interest rates again?

The Australian dollar is weaker this week, following the news that Australian employment data, whilst reasonably positive, was not inspiring enough to majorly turn the tide on the Australian currency. With the outlook on interest rates shifting following very poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which recently came in at a decade low, the Reserve Bank of Australia might well be looking to cut their interest rates once again ahead.

I am concerned about some of the more global issues that will influence the Australian dollar too, the prospect of the trade wars deteriorating ahead could be a major concern for the currency. It is likely that the Australian dollar will suffer as investors are fearful over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, this weekend’s G20 Summit will be key in determining what happens next.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar, making some careful plans in advance is usually a good idea to try and help mitigate the uncertainty. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar will often rise and fall on the waning attitudes to global risk and trade. Donald Trump is a real wildcard here and his constant to and fro on the trade wars, is harming sentiment.

Next week, is a series of important economic releases with the Governor of the RBA, looking to make a speech plus the latest RBA Meeting Minutes. In providing information on what lies ahead, we will learn of the latest news and developments we might expect. I predict that Lowe will have to keep the door open to further cuts and this could see the Aussie weaker.

Looking at the general trend and trajectory on the trade wars, I think the Australian dollar could lose more ground ahead. Expectations are mixed over what to expect this weekend, any signs of agreement between Trump and China, could provide some shorter-term relief for the Aussie. However, I do feel that any improvement in sentiment will only be short-term, and there will continue to be a longer net negative concern from the trade wars which will affect the Australian dollar.

Thank you for reading my post and should you have a Australian currency transfers that you wish for assistance with, I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategy to assist with the best rates and timings.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will more disappointing data for the UK today result in further falls for the Pound?

It’s been a disappointing week for UK economic data releases so far, which has come at a bad time for the Pound as the currency is already trading at the lower end of it’s recent trading ranges. The Pound to Aussie Dollar pair in particular is trading in the early 1.80’s, and at the time of writing it’s trading at 1.8150 which is towards the lower levels of the day.

1.80 could act as a support level for the Pound, but those of our clients and readers monitoring the pair should be weary of potential further falls for the Pound as not only is the currency under pressure owing to political uncertainty, but economic data is now starting to disappoint which could cause further falls.

So far this week both manufacturing and construction data has shown a slowdown from the previous figures. At 9.30am this morning there will be the release of Services PMI which is arguably more important as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. I think a drop in these figures could result in a sharper sell-off than we’ve seen this week due to the importance of the sector to the UK economy.

Data aside, the leadership contest for the Conservative Party could be the next potential market mover, as the victor’s attitude to Brexit is likely to impact markets. Down under we have seen the Australian economy pick up slightly but there are still expectations of further interest rate cuts later this year after the recent cut, so this is a potential downside for the Aussie Dollar moving forward.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar forecast – Increased volatility set to continue…

The Aussie dollar is being pulled in many different directions at present, as the market is encouraged to consider and take onboard many factors in its assessment of the value of the currency. Domestic economic and political concerns are high ahead of the Australian election this weekend, as are global concerns over trade wars and the impact on the Chinese economy. The Aussie dollar is softer this May under the pressure of such events, and I think may well lose further ground.

The elections this weekend could well see the Labour Party winning the election as their messages on climate change and improving health and education spending appear to hit the right notes with voters. This might well see the Australian dollar weaker after the weekend, since it is expected the increase in spending, might lead to worse economic performance and increase pressure on the Australian central bank, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), to cut interest rates.

Looking forward, investors with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might wish to be making some plans ahead of the election this weekend to try and protect or manage their position. You can email myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about this if you wish.

Will the Australian dollar weaken further?

Another concern for me would be the escalating trade wars which so far has seen the US and China, both raise tariffs on each other’s good. Trump has now levied 25% tariffs on US$200 bn worth of Chinese goods, whilst China has retaliated with between 5-25% tariffs on US$60bn worth of goods.

This just adds to the uncertain picture ahead for the global economy and I would expect will lead to a weaker AUD. Whilst the immediate sell off on stock markets and currencies seen earlier this week has been stemmed, with such investments staging a small comeback yesterday, the longer term outlook does not appear rosy.

The Australian dollar is very much supported by a strong global economy, in particular by China and its demand for raw materials. The increased uncertainty globally has seen the Australian economy struggle with inflation at a 16-year low, thereby putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates.

May is presenting much potential for the Australian dollar to come under some pressure, clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might benefit from a quick review with us to discuss the best strategy moving forward. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss more about what might suit you best in this market.

Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling starts the week strongly with GBP/AUD trading north of 1.86, will GBP/AUD test it’s annual highs again soon?

The Pound has begun the week on the front foot this morning, with GBP exchange rates generally up across the board of major currency pairs. GBP/AUD is up by over half a percent, with the pair now trading around the 1.8650 level which is around 2-cents from the best levels of the past year.

There could be further price changes this week, especially towards the end of the week as Australians will be going to the polls to vote on the Australian Federal election. There has been a lack on continued leadership down under as many of our readers that follow Australian politics will be aware of. Over the past 12-years there have been 6 different prime ministers and the current leader, Scott Morrison of the Liberal-National coalition is currently polled in 2nd place. Another change of leadership could cause weakness for the Aussie Dollar, as Morrison has only been in power since August of last year so another change could increase uncertainty for the Australian economy moving forward.

There will also be inflation data released out of Australia towards the end of the week, and a weak reading could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates at their next opportunity, so again this is another potential market mover.

The main influence on the Pound’s value is likely to be the cross party Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour leaders. We’ve seen updates on the talks move GBP exchange rates in both directions recently, so it’s worth being aware of if you’re planning on making a GBP transfer soon.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar boosted as RBA chooses not to hike interest rates just yet!

The currency markets were dealt a surprise in the early hours of this morning, as the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to hold interest rates at the current record low levels of 1.50%.

Over recent months inflation levels have stagnated, prompting a number of economists to predict another cut in interest rates which last week helped push the Pound to Australian Dollar up up to within 1-cent from the annual high, which is 1.8881. Despite keeping rates on hold the RBA did has kept the door open regarding rate hikes, and there will now large emphasis on employment figures along with inflation levels which could impact AUD exchange rates moving forward.

Retail sales is another area of the market that I expect to be followed closely, as retailers had their worst quarter in 7-years in the first quarter of this year.

Markets will continue to watch the Pound closely, and as we saw towards the end of last week the markets are sensitive towards Brexit related updates as this topic is the main driver for GBP exchange rates at the moment. On Friday GBP/EUR amongst other major pairs hit a 1-month high when the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn of Labour, stated that parliament must break the deadlock over Brexit and ‘get a deal done’ to exit the EU.

Talks have been ongoing behind the scenes regarding a deal, so moving forward I expect this matter to have an influence on the Pound’s value along with an speculation regarding PM May’s position.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD hits 1.85 as markets await a busy Thursday for UK data releases

The Pound’s value is rising across the board of major currency pairs today, with GBP/AUD hitting levels as high as 1.8527 at its highest level so far today.

Sterling had begun the day positively and it was boosted around 9.30am this morning as Manufacturing data came out slightly better than expected, with the forward looking Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figure showing a positive reading of 53.1 meaning that there is an improving outlook within the industry at the moment.

With the chances of an imminent Brexit with no trade deals in place now a lot less likely due to the extension the UK has been given, sentiment surrounding the economy is picking up and not only has this been reflected within today’s manufacturing data release, but also within the property market which saw another slight gain this month and a small year on year improvement of 0.9% despite the uncertainty.

Tomorrow there will be a raft of economic data released around lunchtime by the Bank of England as the BoE’s interest rate decision along with comments afterwards from BoE governor Mark Carney providing an insight into the monetary policy plans moving forward.

Whilst the Pound has been climbing, the Australian Dollar hasn’t been helped as some disappointing data out of China for April has softened the Aussie Dollars value across the board. Those of our readers hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should be aware of this due to the interconnectedness of the two economies.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Brexit Limbo does not bode well for the Pound

UK & Brussels at Impasse

Although investor concerns may have been eased following the Brexit extension the Pound still remains fragile and I would be surprised to see any significant gains against the Australian Dollar until we have firm news on Brexit. It seems as though the UK and Brussels are at a complete impasse, Theresa May has put several different alternatives to her deal to the House of Commons all of which have failed to gain a majority and Brussels have stone walled the UK stating it is the current deal or nothing.

European Council President, Donald Tusk sent out a warning to his “British friends” saying “please do not waste this time .” It seems as though another extension will be unlikely.

Brexit remains in Limbo and I would not be surprised to see us in a similar situation come October.

The Australian Dollar has its own problems however, Housing prices remain inflated in high wage growth areas such as Melbourne and Sydney. It mean Australians are being forced to spend their hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services.

Australia  has a heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods. The US/China trade war is causing a slowdown in Chinese growth which is having a knock on effect to the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and fluctuations in its price can cause a change in Australian Dollar value, it is worth keeping an eye on if you have a trade involving the Aussie.

Recent news coming from US/China trade talks suggest an end could be in sight. US Treasury Secretary , Steven Mnuchin has stated we could see a conclusion to the trade war in under a month. If this is the case we could see substantial gains for the Aussie.

There are still however key points of contention. The US would like to keep existing tariffs in place in order to keep pressure on China , while Beijing would like them stopped immediately.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18yrs and FCA registered.
If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Pound to Australian Dollar: Brexit continues to Dictate GBP/AUD

The Brexit saga continues and now we are looking at an extension. GBP/AUD rates had recently risen to the highest levels since June 2016, breaching 1.88. This can be attributed to positive news surrounding Brexit, rumours were circulating that Brussel’s could make concessions on the Irish border and the chances of a no deal scenario dropped considerably.

PM Theresa May addressed the nation yesterday evening and made a plea to MPs to support her deal ahead of what is likely to be a third and final meaningful vote.

May also confirmed she had written to President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk to request an extension to Article 50. she has requested an extension until 30th June.

She also stated that she would not approve a long term extension to Article 50. This immediately raises the question whether this means she is prepared to step down as Prime minister should her deal be voted down and and then vote for a lengthy extension for talks.

She also said “this House will have to decide how to proceed”, if her deal is rejected for a third time.

If May were to resign you can expect this to hurt Sterling significantly.  GBP/AUD has now dropped into the 1.84s.

 US/China Trade War –  Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services and slow down in Chinese growth has a kick back on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

The US/China trade war is currently hurting the Australian Dollar and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making decent gains against the Aussie.

There were rumours the trade war could be resolved by the end of the month, but Trump yesterday threw a spanner in the works saying the following:

“We’re not talking about removing them, we’re talking about leaving them for a substantial period of time,”  “Because we have to make sure that if we do the deal with China that China lives by the deal because they’ve had a lot of problems living by certain deals.”

Brexit will continue to be the key driver on GBP/AUD. I think at this point we are looking at an extension as both parties do not wish to deal with a no deal scenario. I think if an extension is called there will not be any great shakes on the market. If Brussels do give concessions on the Irish border however, expect substantial Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 18yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.