Tag Archives: best UK exchange rates

Will further interest rate cuts result in a drop for the Australian Dollar this year?

The Australian Dollar has continued to come under pressure recently which has helped the Pound recoup some of its recent losses against the currency. One of the reasons for the downturn for AUD is due to the interest rate cut that took place earlier this month, which has pushed Australian interest rates down to record lows. There are now predictions of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia with some financial institutions predicting two further cuts this year, which would push the rate down to 0.75% and likely have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollars value.

Aside from these forecasts of rate cuts due to the slowing economy, another reason for Aussie Dollar weakness is due to the ongoing US-China trade war saga, which has caused concerns for the Australian economy moving forward. I would expect to see AUD exchange rates continue to struggle whilst this continues, owing to the fact that China is the countries main trading partner.

From the UK side the Conservative leadership contest is likely to remain the key driver, with Boris Johnson remaining the front runner. This leadership contest along with any Brexit related updates remain the key driver for GBP exchange rates so do keep on top of this if you’re following the Pound’s value due to an upcoming currency requirement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar forecast: Will the RBA cut their interest rates again?

The Australian dollar is weaker this week, following the news that Australian employment data, whilst reasonably positive, was not inspiring enough to majorly turn the tide on the Australian currency. With the outlook on interest rates shifting following very poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which recently came in at a decade low, the Reserve Bank of Australia might well be looking to cut their interest rates once again ahead.

I am concerned about some of the more global issues that will influence the Australian dollar too, the prospect of the trade wars deteriorating ahead could be a major concern for the currency. It is likely that the Australian dollar will suffer as investors are fearful over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, this weekend’s G20 Summit will be key in determining what happens next.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar, making some careful plans in advance is usually a good idea to try and help mitigate the uncertainty. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar will often rise and fall on the waning attitudes to global risk and trade. Donald Trump is a real wildcard here and his constant to and fro on the trade wars, is harming sentiment.

Next week, is a series of important economic releases with the Governor of the RBA, looking to make a speech plus the latest RBA Meeting Minutes. In providing information on what lies ahead, we will learn of the latest news and developments we might expect. I predict that Lowe will have to keep the door open to further cuts and this could see the Aussie weaker.

Looking at the general trend and trajectory on the trade wars, I think the Australian dollar could lose more ground ahead. Expectations are mixed over what to expect this weekend, any signs of agreement between Trump and China, could provide some shorter-term relief for the Aussie. However, I do feel that any improvement in sentiment will only be short-term, and there will continue to be a longer net negative concern from the trade wars which will affect the Australian dollar.

Thank you for reading my post and should you have a Australian currency transfers that you wish for assistance with, I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategy to assist with the best rates and timings.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will more disappointing data for the UK today result in further falls for the Pound?

It’s been a disappointing week for UK economic data releases so far, which has come at a bad time for the Pound as the currency is already trading at the lower end of it’s recent trading ranges. The Pound to Aussie Dollar pair in particular is trading in the early 1.80’s, and at the time of writing it’s trading at 1.8150 which is towards the lower levels of the day.

1.80 could act as a support level for the Pound, but those of our clients and readers monitoring the pair should be weary of potential further falls for the Pound as not only is the currency under pressure owing to political uncertainty, but economic data is now starting to disappoint which could cause further falls.

So far this week both manufacturing and construction data has shown a slowdown from the previous figures. At 9.30am this morning there will be the release of Services PMI which is arguably more important as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. I think a drop in these figures could result in a sharper sell-off than we’ve seen this week due to the importance of the sector to the UK economy.

Data aside, the leadership contest for the Conservative Party could be the next potential market mover, as the victor’s attitude to Brexit is likely to impact markets. Down under we have seen the Australian economy pick up slightly but there are still expectations of further interest rate cuts later this year after the recent cut, so this is a potential downside for the Aussie Dollar moving forward.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar boosted as RBA chooses not to hike interest rates just yet!

The currency markets were dealt a surprise in the early hours of this morning, as the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to hold interest rates at the current record low levels of 1.50%.

Over recent months inflation levels have stagnated, prompting a number of economists to predict another cut in interest rates which last week helped push the Pound to Australian Dollar up up to within 1-cent from the annual high, which is 1.8881. Despite keeping rates on hold the RBA did has kept the door open regarding rate hikes, and there will now large emphasis on employment figures along with inflation levels which could impact AUD exchange rates moving forward.

Retail sales is another area of the market that I expect to be followed closely, as retailers had their worst quarter in 7-years in the first quarter of this year.

Markets will continue to watch the Pound closely, and as we saw towards the end of last week the markets are sensitive towards Brexit related updates as this topic is the main driver for GBP exchange rates at the moment. On Friday GBP/EUR amongst other major pairs hit a 1-month high when the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn of Labour, stated that parliament must break the deadlock over Brexit and ‘get a deal done’ to exit the EU.

Talks have been ongoing behind the scenes regarding a deal, so moving forward I expect this matter to have an influence on the Pound’s value along with an speculation regarding PM May’s position.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Daniel Johnson

GBP/AUD – Brexit continues to dictate GBP/AUD and at present the situation remains in Limbo. Theresa May has now failed on three separate occasions with her deal and at present the default action if a deal is not reached by 12th April is the UK will leave the EU with no deal. Both sides are desperate to avoid this situation and it looks as though the outcome will be an extension.

How long the extension will be and with what stipulations is what is being hastily negotiated. May favours a short extension whereas Brussels would like a flexible year extension in place.

I believe an extension is already factored into current GBP/AUD levels as the market moves on rumour as well as fact. I would expect Sterling to gain value if an extension is confirmed as investor concerns are eased. Do not expect any great shakes however.

GBP/AUD has remained above the key resistance point of 1.80 despite the lack of progress in Brexit talks, I think this can be mainly attributed to the probability of a no deal remaining low with the vast majority of the House of Commons set against allowing a no deal scenario to occur.

I think Sterling will however remain fragile until we have firm news on Brexit, which now could be some way off. The Australian Dollar has it’s own concerns however. Housing prices in high wage growth areas continue to inflate and Australians are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services which is hurting the economy. The ongoing trade war between the US and China is also a key concern. Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports, particularly iron ore. In fact iron ore value has been known to cause sways in the value of the Aussie.  The trade war is influencing Chinese growth which in turn has an impact on the Australian economy and the Australian Dollar.

Investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies in favour of what is considered to be safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the US Dollar.

I think if it were not for Brexit we could be seeing gains for Sterling against the Aussie, but at present you really need someone with an eye on the markets for you if you wish to take advantage of any spikes on the market, which recently have only been small windows of opportunity.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

Pound to Australian Dollar: Brexit continues to Dictate GBP/AUD

The Brexit saga continues and now we are looking at an extension. GBP/AUD rates had recently risen to the highest levels since June 2016, breaching 1.88. This can be attributed to positive news surrounding Brexit, rumours were circulating that Brussel’s could make concessions on the Irish border and the chances of a no deal scenario dropped considerably.

PM Theresa May addressed the nation yesterday evening and made a plea to MPs to support her deal ahead of what is likely to be a third and final meaningful vote.

May also confirmed she had written to President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk to request an extension to Article 50. she has requested an extension until 30th June.

She also stated that she would not approve a long term extension to Article 50. This immediately raises the question whether this means she is prepared to step down as Prime minister should her deal be voted down and and then vote for a lengthy extension for talks.

She also said “this House will have to decide how to proceed”, if her deal is rejected for a third time.

If May were to resign you can expect this to hurt Sterling significantly.  GBP/AUD has now dropped into the 1.84s.

 US/China Trade War –  Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services and slow down in Chinese growth has a kick back on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

The US/China trade war is currently hurting the Australian Dollar and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making decent gains against the Aussie.

There were rumours the trade war could be resolved by the end of the month, but Trump yesterday threw a spanner in the works saying the following:

“We’re not talking about removing them, we’re talking about leaving them for a substantial period of time,”  “Because we have to make sure that if we do the deal with China that China lives by the deal because they’ve had a lot of problems living by certain deals.”

Brexit will continue to be the key driver on GBP/AUD. I think at this point we are looking at an extension as both parties do not wish to deal with a no deal scenario. I think if an extension is called there will not be any great shakes on the market. If Brussels do give concessions on the Irish border however, expect substantial Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 18yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

US/China Trade War and Brexit dictate GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Progress in US/China talks

Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services any fall in growth from China has an impact on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

The US/China trade war is a huge concern amongst investors, a trade war between the world’s two largest economies has huge implications. The Trump administration wants China to change its economic strategy, something Chinese President,  Xi Jinping will be reluctant to do. The changes that are being asked for would hit the Chinese economy hard and  long term. It may be the case that the Chinese will try and give very small concessions in  bid to lengthen the trade war and out last Trumps reign. A dangerous game considering the US has threatened to increase tariffs to 25% should their terms not be met. 25% is a huge increase and if China retaliate both economies will suffer not to mention the global impact.

At present, trade talks seem to be progressing well.  When asked about how talks were going yesterday in Beijing, US Treasury Secretary , Steven Mnuchin replied “so far so good.”

If it were not for the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit I think Sterling would be making gains against the Aussie. Although, the pound could lose value as negotiations with Brussels intensify I think the likely outcomes are either an 11th hour deal or an extension, both of which could cause significant Sterling strength. Morgan Stanley recently suggested there was less than a 5% chance of a no deal scenario. The market moves on rumour as well as fact so due to a no deal Brexit being largely factored out of the equation at present, if it were to occur expect  a large drop in the pound as this outcome is definitely going against the grain.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18yrs and FCA registered.If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Will next week’s vote on May’s Brexit deal cause movement for GBP/AUD?

The Pound has been trading within relatively thin volumes this week against most major currency pairs as the currency comes under pressure in the lead up to next week. On the 15th of this month, which is next Tuesday there will be a ‘meaningful vote’ on Prime Minister, Theresa May’s Brexit plan and much of the speculation this week revolves around that date.

The Australian Dollar, despite being the biggest loser in terms of currency throughout 2018 of the G10 countries, has actually been increasing in value over the past week as hopes of a agreement between the US and China over the trade war talks increase. There have been ongoing discussions recently between the two leading economies, and this is a positive for Australia as China is the country’s main trading partner.

So far this morning the Pound has got off to a poor start, as pressure builds in the lead up to next week’s vote, especially after the first planned vote was delayed as May was concerned of a major loss. The latest Brexit related update is that yesterday evening Parliament voted in a new amendment specifying that the government has 3-days to report back to the commons with its ‘plan B’ in the event that May loses next week.

Economic data is taking a back seat at the moment owing to the importance of UK politics at the moment, but it’s worth being aware that on Friday there will be UK GDP figures released at 9.30am with growth of 0.1% expected. I would expect to see a drop in the Pounds value if this figure disappointing especially if the figure shows a negative figure.

If you wish to be updated and to plan around what could be a busy week for the GBP/AUD pair, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit continues to be the main influence on GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Could Brexit January 15th vote simply lead to another?

GBP/AUD rates continue to be largely dictated by Brexit. Theresa May has now confirmed 15th January as the date that parliament will vote on her current deal. The vote was originally delayed due to May’s lack of confidence in the deal going through. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Junker has said there will be no changes to the current deal and he is only willing to clarify the current terms. Could it be the case that Junker will make concessions? Or could the threat of a no deal Brexit force a vote through?

May has suggested if the deal does not go through at her first attempt then there will be a second vote, this could point to out that she feels Brussels will change it’s stance. There is still a huge lack of clarity surrounding Brexit which is not sitting well with investors. The majority of scenarios are Pound negative, but if May were to be ousted or resign we could see a second referendum back on the table.

If May’s deal does not go through we  could see a leadership challenge from Corbyn or indeed we could see her resign if it looks like the deal will have no chance of going through, although  I don’t take her for a quitter. I am not a particular fan of May, but you cannot help but admire her perseverance.

If you look historically if a country loses it’s leader the currency in question would weaken, however in this situation it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. We could see an initial fall due to political uncertainty, but if it appears a second referendum comes to the forefront it is widely predicted that the vote would come in in favour of remaining in the EU according to polls. This could boost investor confidence and in turn the pound.

Would I be hanging on for this if I was selling Sterling?

The answer is no. The majority of Brexit outcomes  result in Sterling weakness, if you have to move short to medium term I would be looking to take advantage of current levels or at least a tranche for safety. The ongoing trade war between the US and China is a concern for the Aussie and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling would be experiencing gains against AUD, unfortunately the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit is outweighing the trade war.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.