Tag Archives: best UK exchange rates

Busy day for GBP/AUD exchange rate, can we expect to see similar volatility moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been trading in a volatile fashion today as a number of headlines have resulted in Sterling movement.

Although there is no major data set for release out of the UK this week, and there was little released today by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound move further as Brexit talks appear to be heating up.

This afternoon we saw the Pound sold off as it appeared that Brexit Secretary David Davis has a different opinion to his European counterparts regarding how Brexit negotiations are going. The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde today also threw her hat into the mix and stated that there needs to be more clarity regarding the Brexit, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unimaginable.

The downward trend has since reversed for the Pound as in the last 30 minutes or so its been reported that Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit has stated that the EU could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market after Brexit.

In a market like this its very difficult to judge which way the market will move, but working on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to the sudden moves.

Today’s price movement has been over 1.25% which on large currency transfers can equate to a substantial amount of money, which is where timing your transfers can really make the difference.

There are no major announcements out of Australia either this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment with today’s trading session being a clear example of how comments from significant personnel can move the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar recovers against the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Australia’s worst retail sales data in four years

Early in the week we saw some quite poor economic data from down under. Retail sales data which was predicted to come in at a 0.3% up, it actually dropped by 0.6% and the pound benefitted as a result. This was the worst retail sales data for four years. It seems consumers have made cuts due high levels of personal debt in goods such as furniture, clothing and food.

Interest rates were kept on hold at 1.5% due to high debt levels, poor inflation and a slow down in wage growth. Despite this I am still of the opinion the UK economy is in a much worse position due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and a lack of political stability.

May fails to unite the Conservatives

Sterling’s rally quickly ended following the debacle which was Theresa May’s speech.  Her aim was to unite the party and bring stability to the conservatives. I think it was close to the opposite.
She coughed throughout  the speech and party posters fell on the floor to add insult to injury. A member of the public managed to breach security and hand her a P45 which had a fake Boris Johnson signature inscribed. In house bickering and the uncertainty of May’s job is not helping the pound. Political uncertainty will almost certainly impact the currency in question. A client of mine said it was so bad it seemed as though it was a sketch from Yes! Prime minister.

The bookmaker Betway have slashed odds to 5/6 that May will no longer be in power by the next general election.

On the Aussie front we could see further gains due to increased demand for Australia’s biggest export Iron ore. I am of the opinion Sterling is in a bad spot and we could see further losses short to medium term.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Bad news for the Pound pushes it lower, are trade levels in the early 1.60’s on the horizon again? (Joseph Wright)

Despite some negative data being released down under in the early hours this morning, the Pound has still dropped against AUD throughout the day’s trading.

The worst Retail Sales figures in 4 and a half years were published this morning, as it turns out that Australian consumers are beginning to cut back on items such as food, clothing and furniture.

The reading for July was also revised down from the previous reading, meaning that the two drops in sales figures are the biggest back to back drop since 2010.

Despite this this disappointing data release the Pound has still fallen against the Aussie Dollar, whereas the majority of other major currency pairs have risen against the Aussie.

Sentiment surrounding the Pound took a knock today as ratings agency, Standard & Poors questioned whether the UK could withstand an interest rate rise, and it emerged that car sales in the UK are continuing to drop.

There has also been a lot of talk regarding UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s calamitous speech to the Conservative party conference on Wednesday.

Odd’s are increasing on her resignation and although I don’t expect any changes at number 10, I think any talk surrounding this matter could result in a weaker Pound which could push the GBP/AUD pair down towards the 1.60 mark.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Back to normal on GBPAUD exchanges!

After briefly rising above 1.70 on a strengthening pound and a weaker Aussie, GBPAUD is currently back into the 1.68’s. This is largely a revert to the more normal themes on the currency pair with sterling ebbing lower and the Aussie stronger. The pound is weaker because UK economic data has failed to live up to the high expectations, the Australian dollar stronger because the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept rates on hold and were not dovish in their commentary over when rates might rise in Australia.

I say back to normal because this is the more usual behaviour the pair has displayed and that has driven GBPAUD rates. We have said many times that for any clients buying Australian dollars with pounds will more than likely end up disappointed from holding on too long since the pound seems bound to remain on the weaker side.

Some investors had also been laying bets the RBA would raise interest rates next year, the removal of these expectations in commentary fro the RBA had seen the Aussie weaker helping with the moves over 1.70 recently. However despite the change in sentiment, the Australian dollar with a interest rate of 1.5% remains one of the most attractive currencies to hold from the perspective of how much yield or return it will give investors. This helps keep the Australian dollar strong and should serve as a reminder to any clients hoping GBPAUD would quickly go to 1.80 or higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global events also must be factored in here, the Australian dollar was weaker on concerns over North Korea too but these tensions have cooled. Expectations on when the US will raise interest rates also play a part and could see the Aussie weaker if the US raise interest rates in December although generally speaking the US has been disappointing investors with the pace of hikes and the US dollar is much softer.

Friday is the big day this week with US Non-Farm Payroll data which will have a bearing on the Aussie as investors switch positions around according to their views on the US and global economy.

If you have a transfer pending buying or selling Australian dollars why not get in touch and see if we can help? I am very confident I can give you some insight into the latest trends plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, you have nothing to lose from sending an email.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any transfers.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD continue to rise this month?

The pound made considerable gains against the Australian dollar throughout September due to the Bank of England’s stance surrounding future interest rates and the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that an interest rate hike could occur as early as November and currency speculators have purchased the pound in anticipation.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australian Philip Lowe confirmed that an interest rate hike anytime soon is unlikely as they do not want to see household debt rise further.

In other news iron ore prices in Austrian have been taking a tumble in recent weeks. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export and when iron ore prices fall this tends to mean the Austrian dollar follows suit. If iron ore continues to decline I expect buying Austrian dollars will become cheaper in the upcoming weeks.

Another factor that will have a major impact on GBPAUD exchange rates is Brexit developments. Currently Brexit negotiations have stalled once again as UK and EU negotiations cannot come to an agreement in regard to the divorce settlement or EU citizens rights once the UK depart the EU. This could be a story that has a positive or negative impact on the pound.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

RBA and BOA in very different positions in regards to Interest Rate Strategy (Daniel Johnson)

BOE indicate possible Interest rate hike

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England has recently stated there is the strong possibility of an interest rate hike in the coming months. The justification behind this move however is dubious. Inflation is at 2.9%.

Inflation is only healthy for an economy provided average wage growth is moving at a similar pace. This is not the case, latest figures showed a decline to 2.1%. If goods and services are more expensive and consumers are making less money there could well be reluctance to spend. This is when there could be the potential for recession. So why encourage consumers to save by raising rates when you should be encouraging consumers to spend?

Unemployment has also been cited as justification for a rate hike. These are being lauded as the best figures since the 70’s, but this release is misleading as zero hour contracts have recently been introduced and will make up a significant chunk of this data.

The MPC who vote on interest rates voted 7-2 in favor of keeping rates on hold this month. Is such a big swing possible by November?

Still, investors are biting with GBP/AUD consistently breaking 1.70 and Carney is doubtful to change his stance during today’s speech.

RBA concerned about Australian Dollar strength

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) entirely different predicament, whereby the strength of the Aussie is cause for concern. The primary export for Australia is iron ore, Australia is heavily reliant on the Chinese purchasing this raw material. The strength of the Aussie and dwindling growth from China is a real threat to long term economic health. Philip Lowe the head of the RBA has attempted to talk down the value of the currency but has not had the same success as Carney. If you are buying AUD, I am of the opinion maximising your return will depend on your times scale.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Is the Aussie Dollars bullish run coming to an end? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is continuing its recovery against the Aussie Dollar, with the rate rising above the 1.70 mark once again and this time almost hitting 1.72 at its highest point during today’s trading session.

I believe this change in direction for the pair can be put down to both Sterling strength as the pound is also putting in some strong performance against other major currency pairs. This is likely due to Brexit headlines and uncertainties not being in the spotlight which has been a welcome change for those hoping to exchange their Pounds at more competitive levels.

The upward movement for GBP/AUD has also been aided by the weakening Aussie Dollar which had previously been one of the strongest performers of the year.

The drop in the Aussie dollars value can be put down to a slowdown in Chinese growth, falling commodity prices such a iron ore which is key for AUD, and also talk of the Reserve Bank of Australia not planning on hiking interest rates until 2019 which is in start contrast to the Bank of England who have alluded to hike as soon as next month.

Tomorrow morning there will be a key data release out of the UK as UK GDP will be released around 9.30am. If this figure deviates from the expectation we could see further movement, so feel free to get in touch with me if you wish to be kept updated regarding this release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

When will the RBA raise rates? (and how will this affect the pound to Aussie rate)

The pound to Australian dollar has become more comfortable above 1.70 lately but we are still having trouble sticking above it. My personal belief is that the pound to Australian dollar rate will rise higher through the 1.70’s as the lack of any interest rate cut down under, and the increased prospect of one in the UK, causes the rate to rise. I therefore think it could be many years before we see a rate hike in Australia and agree with some more recent commentators who state it will be 2019 not 2018 before we see the next hike.

The Australian dollar is already weaker as markets agree that any hike next year is less likely, the strength in growth and employment in the Australian economy is high but many question for how long it will last. With savings rates having dwindled in recent years Australians are having to save even more and this will impact consumer spending. The very strong housing market is a cause for concern but raising interest rates won’t necessarily help the boom, but it will make getting on the ladder even trickier for new home buyers and make mortgages more expensive.

Whilst I do not think the UK will raise rates as quick as many expect (some pencil in November) I do expected much increased rhetoric around the topic over the next couple of months and this could well send sterling higher. If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars this shift will not occur in a straight line, we will undoubtedly see a rather volatile path.

GBPAUD could easily rise to say 1.76 or 1.80 at the top end in the next two months before as UK rates expectations cool and the prospect of any Australian hikes become clearer, see the rate back into the lower 1.70’s or even sub 1.70 again.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds and wish to get some insight into market movements and strategy to maximise your currency exchange we can help with a personal service and excellent rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your situation.

A dramatic fall for the Australian dollar

Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar lost value against all of the major currencies due to RBA governor Philip Lowe announcing that it was unlikely the RBA would raise interest rates anytime soon.

Within my last article I suggested this would be the case, as the Governor in recent months has made it clear if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen in value, this could have a negative impact on GDP and the amount of jobs that are created.

The Australian dollar also took a tumble due to a further fall in the commodity iron ore. Iron ore is Australia’s largest goods export and over the last six trading sessions is down 13.7%. There is a direct correlation with iron ore and Australian dollar exchange rates. When iron falls exchange rates fall when iron rises exchange rates rise.

However the Australian dollar didn’t devalue much against sterling this week as Theresa May’s lack lustre speech in Florence Friday left the currency markets wanting more and therefore a sell off of sterling occurred. The PM gave no indication to how much the UK would pay the EU when the UK departs and this is what the market was anticipating.

It’s a quiet week for Australian economic data releases, the only release to look out for is Private sector credit Friday morning however this isn’t normally a big market mover. For people that are buying or selling Australian dollars this week should also analyse the other currency that you are converting.

If you are making a currency conversion in the upcoming weeks or months, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair you are converting (AUDUSD, AUDEUR, AUDGBP) the reason for your transfer (business transaction, property purchase) and the timescales you are working to and I will respond to your email with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

Dayle Littlejohn

 

 

Will GBPAUD hit 1.70?

Expectations for the GBPAUD rate to keep rising seem now linked inextricably to the likelihood of the UK raising interest rates. GBPAUD rose yesterday from 1.62 to now near 1.66 as markets believe there is an increased likelihood the UK will raise interest rates to combat rising Inflation. The Australian dollar has been performing quite well itself, in the short term this could be a spike to be seriously considering for AUD buyers.

Looking further at what we can see ahead for the UK and the pound this morning’s Unemployment data at 09.30 am UK time and tomorrow’s UK Interest rate decision are the key pieces of news to monitor for movements on GBPAUD. Should the Bank of England acknowledge that improving Inflation is a cause for concern and the market detect signals of a rate hike sterling could well have another good couple of days.

I don’t actually think we will see any UK interest rate hikes for quite some time, the rising Inflation was actually caused by increases in the price of clothes and shoes. I fail to see how this will really be enough of a trigger for the Bank of England to actually go ahead and raise interest rates but nevertheless the speculators will probably seek to push the market higher as a consequence.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars with pounds this latest movement has presented some excellent short term opportunities. The outlook for sterling remains mixed so making plans around potential spikes is key to maximising your exchange rate. We aim to ensure out clients are totally informed of all the latest trends, news and themes to help them make an informed choice about what is the best way forward.

Fore more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.