Tag Archives: Brexit

Sterling suffers against AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Poor inflation and poor Retail Sales data could push back BOE rate hike

We have seen very positive news from the UK of late. We have had UK unemployment come in at a 43yr low, a rise in average wage growth and previous retail sales figures came in at 0.8%, well above the expected 0.4%.

We have also recently had news that a Brexit transitional deal has all but been agreed, with the UK having access to the single market until full exit.

GBP/AUD moved as high as the 1.84s. We have seen the Pound take losses over the last few days however. It first took a hit following a fall in inflation pushing away the probability of a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation has now fallen below average wage growth which some may deem as positive, but if people are making more money and not spending it, it does not bode well for the UK economy.

Yesterday there was a sharp fall in retail sales. There was predicted to be a drop from 0.8% to – 0.5%, but they landed at a shocking – 1.2%. The markets remained muted, which surprised me as this surely brings into question a rate hike in May. There was little Sterling weakness.

It was a dovish speech from the Head of the BOE, Mark Carney to convince investors the hike could be put off until later in the year. The pound weakened as a result.

Despite this I still feel the Aussie is fragile. With no hikes planned by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year and the US dollar proving to be far more attractive to investors due to higher returns and safe haven status I am not convinced we will see GBP/AUD drop below 1.81. If I was an Australian Dollar seller buying the pound I would take advantage of current levels. Aussie Buyers aim for the 1.84s, 1.85 is proving to be a firm resistance point.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

Could GBPAUD continue towards 1.90?

Since the start of the year GBPAUD exchange rates have improved by over 10 cents, and clients converting £200,000 into Australian dollars are now achieving an additional 25,ooo dollars. 

The Australian dollar continues to struggle on due to the over inflated housing market which is a reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. Furthermore ‘trade wars’ between the US and China (Australia main trading partner), is causing investors to move away from risky commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The pound has had a good run of late due to the UK securing a transitional deal and the Bank of England hinting that an interest rate hike is likely for June. Today the UK will release their latest average earnings numbers and on Thursday their latest inflation numbers. The consensus is for average earnings to outpace inflation for the first time in many years.

If this is the case, an interest rate hike looks almost certain and therefore I expect the pound may rise slightly against the Australian dollar. However I expect that the market has already priced in the interest rate hike in May, therefore I don’t see the pound making substantial gains.

Looking further ahead I don’t believe it’s all smiles for Australian dollar buyers. The most important element of Brexit is to be decided which is the trade talks. Over the last 18 months we have seen the pound come under pressure when a fresh round of Brexit talks begin. If you need to purchase Australian dollars short to medium term, this week could provide the best opportunity for some time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

AUD Forecast – Concerns Over Global Trade Continue to Weigh Heavily on the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has lost some ground against Sterling overnight, with the pair trading 1.85 during Wednesday morning’s trading.

The AUD has come under pressure lately, having found plenty of support around and below 1.80 for long periods.

The Pound itself has had a very positive week following a strong run of UK economic data. Investor confidence in the Pound soared as UK Unemployment figures fell, Retail Sales figures exceeded expectation and there was even a nod from the Bank of England (BoE) that they may look to hike interest rates over the coming months.

This positive feeling was cemented as reports regarding a Brexit transitional deal surfaced. These reports were later confirmed, with the UK & EUR all but agreeing the terms of the deal, which included access for the UK to the single market & customs union during the two year period.

This positive sentiment helped support Sterling’s rise against the AUD, which itself has come under increasing pressure of late in line with a slowdown in global growth.

Investors have been pulling their funds away from riskier assets such as the AUD, with fears that President Donald Trump’s imposed tariffs on imported goods good have a serious knock on effect for the global economy. As regular readers will know the Australia relies heavily on sustainable global growth to boost its export driven economy and any slowdown inevitably has a negative knock on effects for the AUD.

With US/China trade wars also impacting investors risk appetite, particularly as China demand for Australian goods & materials is so essential to the Australian economy, the AUD may struggle to make any sustained impact back to or below 1.80 against Sterling in the short-term.

Whilst Brexit fears have not completely subsided, with many questions regarding future trade relationship’s still to be answered, I would be tempted to protect any AUD currency positions and avoid the risk of further downturns.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Predictions of a higher GBP/AUD rate mount as Brexit transitional deal hopes grow (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate climbed during today’s trading session, with the pair now trading almost at the very top of the current trend.

The mid-market level for the pair hasn’t breached 1.80 in some time but the pair are currently trading in the 1.78’s, meaning that for those planning on making a GBP to AUD transfer are looking at attractive levels considering recent trading levels. I would add that the lower end of the trend is 1.60 so hopefully you can see my reasoning as to why the current levels are around the top of the market.

There are hopes that the Pound will climb further, and this week the Brexit Secretary, David Davis said that the UK ‘can live with’ a shorter transitional period which has boosted the Pound’s value along with the likelihood of UK interest rates climbing sooner than many had expected.

Analysts at Lloyd’s Bank have recently upgraded their forecasts for the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate this year. They had previously expected to see the pair trade at 1.72 at the inter-bank level although the changing tones from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia has changed their minds, with them upgrading their views on the Pound’s potential.

There isn’t any major economic data coming out of the UK or Australia this week, so I expect the pair to be driven by politics for the remainder of the week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

AUD Forecast – AUD Benefits From Poor US Wage Growth Report (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has found some welcome support over the past few days, making gains against a host of the major currencies.

GBP/AUD have moved back below 1.77, whilst the AUD found support against both the EUR & USD.

This positive spike can most likely be attributed to the weak US wage growth report, which cast doubt over whether the US Fed would raise interest rates at their next policy meeting on March 21st.

Up until his report the US economy had seemingly been on a constant upward curve, which h meant investors started to factor in multiple interest rate hikes this year. On top of this President Donald Trump’s current ‘trade wars’, where is he looking to heavily tax any imported steel or aluminium products, has also put pressure on the USD, which in turn has helped to boost the AUD.

With investors moving their funds away from the USD over the past couple of days, the AUD has been one of the main benefactors, with hoping to take advantage of higher yielding interest and greater profit.

However, this trend may not last should the FED decide to hike rates later this month, so it may be prudent to take advantage of the current spike, for any clients with upcoming AUD currency exchanges to execute.

Looking at GBP/AUD rates and the AUD has found plenty of support around the current levels. However, despite this week’s improvements it has yet to make a substantial move back towards 1.75.

With Brexit concerns still handicapping any major advances for the Pound, it is likely GBP/AUD rates will continue to remain fairly range bound over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

AUD Forecast – Trump’s Tax Tariffs Could Have Serious Knock on Effects for the Australian Economy (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has found plenty of support around 1.77 against Sterling this week but has struggled to make much of an impact below this threshold.

Despite the on-going concerns surrounding Brexit, the Pound has held its position against the AUD better than it has against many of the other major currencies.

News earlier this week that Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figure had slipped to 2.4% from 2.8%, will have dented investor confidence in the region. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on the export of their raw materials, so any slowdown in global growth inevitably has a negative knock on effect for their economy.

Moving forward and there will also be concerns over President Donald Trump’s proposed tax tariffs on imported Steel & Aluminium. This could have serious knock on effects for the global economy and could even threaten a recession in the longer-term.

This in turn would likely to cause investors to flee currencies like the AUD, which are considered a riskier asset in times of global uncertainty.

Whilst market sentiment around the UK economy is still being driven by sentiment surrounding Brexit and with negotiations remaining tedious, it is unlikely the Pound will find any major support under current conditions.

Due to uncertainty on both sides, it is no surprise that GBP/AUD rates have remained largely range bound over the past few weeks, with the markets seemingly waiting for the next key development.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

AUD Forecast – All Eyes Turn to Theresa May’s Brexit Speech (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped slightly this week but once again Sterling seems to have held its position better against the AUD than it has against some of the other major currencies.

The Pound has come under pressure following reports that the EU rejected the UK governments first Brexit draft, which by all accounts was not well received by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

The markets focus has now switched to UK Prime Minster Theresa may’s speech, scheduled for 13.30 today.

She is expected to outline her vision for the UK’s relationship with the EU post Brexit and based on her recent address’s, I expect her to be overly positive and bullish in her tone. Whilst the markets may not react as they have “heard it all before”, the Pound could find some support if she offers a deeper insight, or some sort of fresh alternative.

However, at present it seems the Irish border  issue remains one of the key sticking points and the reality is that until this is agreed, there will be no transitional period and no soft Brexit.

Despite these negative reports the Pound has held it’s position against the AUD, despite not making any further inroads.

The AUD is very susceptible to any downturn in the global markets and as such, the current malaise is causing investors to move their funds away from the AUD and into safer haven currencies such as the USD, which in turn is helping to support Sterling around the current levels.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Sterling falls after strong words from the EU, will GBP/AUD continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board today, after some strong words from the EU negotiating team regarding Brexit have caused Sterling bulls some cause for concern.

It appears that issues surrounding the Northern Irish border and how the customs union will continue along with whether there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Regular readers of ours will be aware that it’s Brexit related data that’s causing GBP exchange rates to move the most dramatically at the moment, and today is no different as such as an update from Michel Barnier is impacting the Pounds value to a greater extent than the news of a rate hike from the Bank of England recently.

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is now dropping into the mid 1.70’s after testing the late 1.70’s in recent weeks. Tomorrow there is the potential for further price movement as there will be there release of Manufacturing data which will cover expectations moving forward. Then on Friday there will be Services PMI which again will cover sentiment moving forward in what’s a very important sector for the UK.

If you would like to plan around these events do feel free to get in touch with me. Also Bank of England governor Mark Carney and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be speaking on Friday which may move markets, so again it’s worth being aware of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

AUD Forecast – AUD Struggling to Impact Against Sterling Despite Brexit Concerns (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has struggled to make much of an impact against Sterling of late, although it seems to have found support below 1.80 against Sterling.

GBP/AUD rates have remained range bound between 1.77- 1.7829 during Wednesday’s trading, with both positive and negative data influencing the pairs value.

The Pound gained some support yesterday following a leaked Brexit report. It indicated that the EU Parliament is set to push for Britain to have “privileged” single market access, giving the UK more flexibility and thus softening our upcoming exit. It seems as though Brussels are keen to accelerate the UK’s exit, perhaps by offering improved terms.

Whilst these reports have not been substantiated, they seem to have filtered through to currency markets and provided enough substance to act as a potential catalyst, for an increase in investor confidence.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released overnight, coupled with UK Unemployment rising to 4.4% seemingly put pressure back on Sterling.

The RBA were keen to point towards wage growth improvements as a reason they could look to raise interest rates this year. With their global outlook also looking fairly positive, the AUD could be one of the main benefactors.

Investors will look towards riskier, potentially higher yielding currencies such as the AUD in times in global prosperity. This could help strengthen the AUD’s position over the coming months if does indeed come to fruition.

In the short-term the UK economy also received a boost, seeing the strongest two quarters of productivity since the 2008 recession.

The markets seem to be increasingly driven off of rumours rather than facts and as such, they are proving increasingly difficult to dissect.

With Brexit developments likely to drive investor sentiment over the coming months, I would be wary about gambling too much on a market which has become unpredictable at almost every turn.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate recover back to pre-Brexit levels anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a 1 and a half cent difference between the high and low for GBP/AUD today, as the pair appear to be continuing to decide which direction to move in next.

Sterling has performed in a mixed fashion against the majority of major currency pairs today and I think the economic data released this morning is perhaps one of the reasons for this.

This morning the office for national statistics (ONS) reported that annualised UK Inflation figures for January showed 3%, justifying the Bank of England’s concerns regarding the rising rates of inflation. This was above the expectation of 2.9% and and considerably above the BoE’s 2% inflationary target figure.

The potential for another rate hike from the BoE is now more realistic, and with wage growth now beginning to show signs of an improvement I think there is a chance of it happening this year which is why the pound has been climbing.

GBP/AUD is currently just under 1.80, and if the pair breach this key level I can imagine seeing the rate break through into the 1.80’s even if it’s proving a stubborn barrier up until this point. A move towards 2.00 would be back to pre-Brexit levels, and should AUD continue to weaken I think seeing GBP/AUD closer to this mark sometime throughout 2018 isn’t something to be ruled out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.