Tag Archives: Brexit

AUD Forecast – What are the Factors Driving GBP/AUD Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped slightly during Thursday’s trading, with the AUD continuing to find support around the current levels.

The pair fell to a low of 1.8338, having been trading above 1.84 at its high over night.

The Pound has failed to make any sustained inroads against the AUD since the weekend, after premature talk of a Brexit agreement caused a sharp sell-off of GBP positions on Sunday.

This put the Pound on the back foot when trading lines opened on Monday. It has been a tough week for Sterling, which has seen its value decrease by around three cents, or the equivalent of 3000 AUD on 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

I anticipate that the AUD will now find plenty of support again around 1.85, when it seemed as though the Pound was set for a run on 1.90 last week, when a Brexit deal looked imminent.

This is another prime example of how the markets may price in an expected political outcome, only to see the currency in questions value diminish when the expected result does now come to fruition.

Looking at the driving factors behind GBP/AUD and any updates or breakthrough in Brexit talks, will no doubt boost investor confidence and the Pound is likely to benefit as a result. Similarly any talk of a no-deal outcome again and it will likely have the opposite e effect.

Looking at the Australian economy and current slowdown in global trade is certainly having a negative impact. This, along with the current trade war between the US & China is causing investors to shy away from riskier currencies such as the AUD. We generally see commodity-based currencies such as the AUD lose value during times of global economic uncertainty.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

Is now the time to sell Austrlian dollars and buy sterling?

Last week the Australian dollar fell to multi year lows against sterling and the US dollar and the economic indicators suggest that further losses are on the horizon for people selling Australian dollars. For people that are researching potential events that will impact the Australian dollar, you should have come across the reasons for why the Australian dollar has been devaluing. The key driver is the strength of the US dollar.

Carry traders which borrow money in low interest rate jurisdictions and invest in high interest rate jurisdictions are not choosing the Australian dollar like they once were because US interest rates are now higher than in Australia and it looks like the gap is set to widen when the US raise interest rates in December.

The other major problem for Australia is that they are stuck in the middle of the trade war between the US and China. Australia heavily relies on China for trade, however Australia also relies heavily on the US for security. At present the trade war between the two leading countries is having a negative impact on the value of the Australian dollar and I expect this trend will continue.

As the UK are now closer to securing a deal with the EU, it looks like GBPAUD exchange rates are heading in one direction and that’s towards 2. For people that are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling you are still generating an additional £15,000 on a 500,000 transfer compared to pre Brexit levels, therefore taken advantage now may pay be your best option.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Expect major volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates

Overnight reports have emerged that  in the upcoming days the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will potentially offer a significant concession to the EU, which would potentially break the deadlock in the Brexit negotiations. The plan is for the UK to remain tied to European Custom laws once the transition period is over at the end of 2020. This wouldn’t be indefinitely, but until the UK manage to negotiate a deal in regards to the Irish Border, however its likely that the new plan would be in place at least to the next general election.

The problem for Theresa May, is that by extending an arm for the Europeans it will mean the UK  will struggle to negotiate trade deals globally and that is one of the arguments to why the UK are leaving the EU in the first place.

Personally I see this going one of two ways. If the Conservative party and the DUP back the PM’s plan, I believe a deal is close to being struck and therefore I expect the pound will rally short term. However if the PM does not get the backing from her party, I believe a vote of no confidence or a general election is closer than people think. If this was the case it could have a devastating impact on the value of the pound and Australian dollar buyers may have a bitter taste in their mouths for a long time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPAUD remain above 1.80?

For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, over the last couple of weeks opportunities have presented themselves. Arguably this is because the Australian PM was ousted and trade wars between China and the US is putting pressure on the commodity currencies.

However short term, Australian dollar buyers could be running out of time. After this weekend the Conservative Conference will start and we should find out the more about the Conservative party’s stance in regards to Brexit.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reinforced in recent weeks that her Chequers plan is the only option. However MPs such as Boris Johnson have called for the Prime Minister to forget her chequers plan and to adopt a similar approach to the Canadian free trade agreement.

Personally I expect the PM to come under further pressure and there will be further commentary in regards to a vote of no confidence. If this materialises and therefore there is any chance of a general election GPBAUD could be back trading in the 1.60s before long.

Any other news Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is set to deliver a speech in Salzburg tomorrow. Interest rates are set to remain on hold for the time being and I expect him to be cautious knowing that the conservative conference is fast approaching. It was only last week he stated 35% of the housing market could be wiped if there is a no deal, therefore this could be another sterling negative release.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your requirements. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Pound collapses against the Australian Dollar after Brexit talks stall (Tom Holian)

The Pound collapsed against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar after a bad week politically for the UK.

The Pound began to drop on Thursday when the unofficial EU meeting didn’t go very well with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan put out by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She criticised the EU and said if they reject her plan then they will need to come up with a plan of their own. Clearly there is no plan coming at least in the short term and this uncertainty caused problems for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Even further losses came on Friday afternoon as Theresa May gave a statement on Brexit and confirmed that a second referendum will not be coming and that she is focused on making sure democracy will prevail. The markets weakened during the statement with GBAUD exchange rates falling below 1.80 after trading above this resistance level for a while.

The Australian Dollar was also given a boost after the Trump administration confirmed that they will not be putting tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

The Aussie Dollar has been under pressure recently caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this will often have a negative effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. However, as Trump has not included them in his latest weight throwing exercise this has helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen against Sterling.

The Australian economy had a further boost recently with credit ratings agency S&P upgrading Australia’s credit outlook from negative to stable for the first time in two years.

With the Australian trade surplus improving as well as record growth in employment this has been another reason for the fightback by the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As we go into next week the GBAUD is likely to be heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga so make sure you’re well prepared for some volatility ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make or would like further information as to what is happening to GBPAUD rates then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD exchange rates – Brexit and trade wars will be the main drivers in my opinion

So far the Pound has had a fairly quiet start to the trading week but all eyes will be on the EU summit today in Salzburg, it is during this conference that we will expect Brexit to be discussed in more detail and this is the type of situation where snippets of news and rumours may hit the wires at any time, leading to Sterling volatility. This volatility may create good buying or selling opportunities depending on the news so if you have a fairly imminent currency exchange to carry out it is well worth contacting me today so that I can keep you fully aware of the latest market movements,

There are officially 191 days to go until Brexit will more than likely be official, and there will be plenty of market movement from now until the lead up to March 2019.

There are plans for a further summit in October and then an extraordinary EU summit is pencilled in for November, and this is where at present we would expect a final deal to be thrashed out.

Towards the end of this month we also have the Conservative party conference on 30th September which may also be one to watch, with Theresa May still seemingly under a little pressure any further negative news surrounding her position may weaken Sterling exchange rates.

In terms of economic data to come out this week, we have Retail Sales figures tomorrow morning at 09:30am and analysts expectations are for a slight drop off in the Retail sector so do be cautious of this release tomorrow if your currency requirement is imminent.

Personally I still feel that Brexit news is going to be key to where the Pound heads next and unfortunately the unpredictable nature of these discussions and the fact that you just do not know which way this is going to head next makes it extremely difficult to know where Sterling exchange rates will be in the coming weeks.

On the Australian Dollar side we have Donald Trump and trade wars that are still very much impacting global attitude to risk, when Trump and China lock horns you tend to see Australian Dollar weakness and when things start to settle the Australian Dollar is fighting back.

The rest of this week is quiet for economic data that may impact the Australian Dollar so I feel that most movements will be based on attitude to risk and political issues.

If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction I feel that there is more chance of GBP/AUD going up in the next few days than coming down.

Should you not be of a gambling nature and you want to remove the risk or your currency exchange costing a lot more than you had budgeted for then the sensible option may be to look into booking something sooner rather than later as we enter the final stages of Brexit talks. There are a number of contract options that we have available to protect you including a forward contract, stop loss or limit order. If you would like further information on any of theses contract types, or you would like to discuss a potential exchange in more detail with one of our brokers here then please feel free to call our trading floor on (+441494 725353) or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Could we see further gains for Sterling against the Aussie ? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – Sterling has made gains against the Aussie of late following a statement from chief Brexit negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier. Barnier said that it is realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. Following the announcement we have seen GBP/AUD hit 1.83.

There are also concerns from down under which was another catalyst for the Spike.  Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s exports and if there is an impact to the Chinese economy it can have repercussions on Australia. The ongoing trade war between China and the US is an example of this.

China have vowed to match the US Dollar for Dollar on tariffs and both sides are preparing further tariffs. As the war escalates investor confidence in the Australian Dollar is waning. During times of global economic uncertainty investors seek out safe haven investments with solid returns.

The US Dollar is the destination of choice, 10yr bond yields are currently the highest for years and there are also expected to be further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

There is also the problem of living costs. Many seek to live in high wage growth  areas such as Sydney or Melbourne. Housing prices in these area are proving overly expensive and Australians are being forced to spend their hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods which is hurting the Aussie.

Although the lack of Brexit progress is holding back the pound I think the Aussie is one of the few major currencies we could see further gains.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBPAUD remains range bound

Over the last 30 days GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated in the higher 1.70s with minimal movement as both currencies seem to have been devaluing at the same pace. At the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting officials showed concern in regards to the trade tariffs that have been imposed on China by the US. The Australian know that a slowdown in China will have an impact on the Australian economy. Furthermore the International monetary fund have waded into the debate and announced an all out trade war will end up costing the global economy over $430bn.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is under extreme pressure and last night threatened Tory rebels that she would call a general election if the amendment in regards to the customs union went through the Commons. The uncertainty of another General election would certianly weigh on the pounds value. Furthermore Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney also failed to help the pounds value yesterday, as he stated a Brexit no deal would mean the Bank of England would have to rethink their future plans.

At the end of the week, UK politicians break for the summer holidays, therefore I expect Brexit related news to go quiet for a few weeks. All eyes will turn to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision early August. The market has been pricing in a hike, however I expect the Bank of England will fail to deliver which will mean sterling takes a hit. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD fall back towards the mid 1.70s over the next month.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

RBA dovish on Monetary Policy Outlook (Daniel Johnson)

RBA Rate Hike appears to be less likely

The Pound has suffered against the majority of major currencies of late. GBP/AUD fell from 1.84 to 1.75 and there has been little reason for optimism fro Aussie buyers. The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit along with a host of poor data is holding back the pound considerably.

We did see GBP/AUD rise to as high as 1.79 during yesterday’s trading, but don’t be quick to think there will be further gains. This is more due to Australian Dollar weakness than any Sterling strength.

We have witnessed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deliver a rather negative speech. It was what was not said that casued a stir. The following line was removed from the minutes:

“Members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down”.

I have stated previously I would be surprised to see a rate hike from the RBA and this certainly seems to reaffirm my thoughts.

The pound remains fragile due to Brexit, but the ongoing trade war between the US and China is a concern for the Australian economy due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s raw materials. The US Dollar is also a far more attractive option for investors with the high levels of interest.

I am still of the opinion GBP/AUD will remain between 1.75-1.80 short term. Aim for the 1.79s if you are an Australian Dollar buyer and you have to move shortly.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. It is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

AUD Forecast – RBA Minutes Indicate Interest Rate Hike Unlikely (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has come under some pressure against Sterling of recent days, although on-going Brexit concerns are still handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

GBP/AUD rates moved close to 1.80 overnight and despite the AUD finding plenty of support around this level, it seems as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released overnight have had an impact on market sentiment.

The AUD had been performing solidly of late, with the Pound struggling to make any impact as negotiations over Brexit continue to move at a snail’s pace.

With the UK government split on its preferred strategy, the Pound has found little market support over recent weeks.

However last night’s RBA minutes, which give investors a key insight into the central banks current economic stance, seems to have dampened some of the recent positivity.

They suggested that the current record low interest rates in Australia were helping to support the economy, an indication that they were unlikely to hike the base rate in the short-term.

The most poignant piece of information however, referenced a concern that any further increase in value for the AUD would lead to a slower rise in inflation and economic growth. This meant that the central bank may well look to “jawbone” the AUD, which is when they will look to talk down the currency’s value, without introducing any official devaluation methods.

This in turn has caused investors to sell-off their AUD currency positions, which is probably why we have seen the AUD weaken this morning.

In the short-term concerns over Brexit will continue to shackle any spikes in value for Sterling, with the AUD likely to find an element of protection around the 1.80 threshold.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.