Tag Archives: Brexit

Pound to Australian dollar forecast: Which currency will devalue more, sterling or the Australian dollar?

Over the last couple of months both sterling and the Australian dollar have devalued in value due to their own specific problems. In the UK the ongoing Brexit saga is a major concern and the chances of crashing out of the EU have increased dramatically. Down under interest rates have been cut due to falling inflation and an underperforming property market. For clients that are converting sterling and Australian dollars, it doesn’t look like the UK or Australia’s fortune is going to change anytime soon, therefore the question clients should now ask themselves is which currency will devalue more than the other in the months to come?

Today MPs within the Conservative party will vote on who they want to see as the next Prime Minister. By the end of the day if a candidate has failed to achieve 17 votes they will be eliminated from the race to become the next PM. At the moment Boris Johnson is the front runner and the bookies favourite, which increases the chances of crashing out of the EU, even though he has made it clear this is not his aim. Yesterday there was an important vote in Parliament and the cross party attempt to give the commons power to stop a future PM from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal was defeated. This essentially means come the end of October if the UK fail to reach an agreement with the EU, the UK will crash out by default.

Down under it looks like interest rates could be cut further throughout the year. Most forecasters are suggesting this could be by 0.5% by the end of the year. When the cuts materialise, short term this could cause a problem for the Australian dollar, but long term it may stimulate growth. When trying to second guess sterling to Australian dollar exchange rates, my personal view is that Brexit will have the final say on the future direction. If the UK manage to persuade the EU to make changes, I expect GBPAUD to increase towards 2, however if the UK crash out of the EU I expect GBPAUD to fall to the lower rates we have seen over the last couple of years which is 1.60.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars with sterling, I expect major fluctuations in the next months, therefore making a decision now seems wise. It’s a gamble either way! If you would like help achieving exchange rates, that you are unlikely to receive with your own high street bank feel free to email me directly and I will personally respond with the process drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will more disappointing data for the UK today result in further falls for the Pound?

It’s been a disappointing week for UK economic data releases so far, which has come at a bad time for the Pound as the currency is already trading at the lower end of it’s recent trading ranges. The Pound to Aussie Dollar pair in particular is trading in the early 1.80’s, and at the time of writing it’s trading at 1.8150 which is towards the lower levels of the day.

1.80 could act as a support level for the Pound, but those of our clients and readers monitoring the pair should be weary of potential further falls for the Pound as not only is the currency under pressure owing to political uncertainty, but economic data is now starting to disappoint which could cause further falls.

So far this week both manufacturing and construction data has shown a slowdown from the previous figures. At 9.30am this morning there will be the release of Services PMI which is arguably more important as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. I think a drop in these figures could result in a sharper sell-off than we’ve seen this week due to the importance of the sector to the UK economy.

Data aside, the leadership contest for the Conservative Party could be the next potential market mover, as the victor’s attitude to Brexit is likely to impact markets. Down under we have seen the Australian economy pick up slightly but there are still expectations of further interest rate cuts later this year after the recent cut, so this is a potential downside for the Aussie Dollar moving forward.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP to Australian Dollar Forecast – UK politics and Australian interest rates

The Pound fell by 5 cents against the Australian Dollar during last month after what has been a very uncertain time politically in the UK.

Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation and we are now in the midst of a leadership election within the Tory party.

The likelihood is that the battle for the next Prime Minister will continue until late July, which means more political uncertainty and this could cause ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates.

The other problem for the Pound is that the next Prime Minister will likely be more of a Brexiteer and this could increase the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Personally speaking I don’t think a no-deal Brexit will happen which means that we’re likely to have to extend the October deadline, have a second referendum or even potentially have another general election. All of these options care likely to cause problems for the Pound.

However, in the very near future the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announcing their latest monetary policy overnight. The strong likelihood is that we’ll see the central bank cut interest rates to their lowest level on record of just 1.25%.

If after the interest rate cut they announce that there could be further rate cuts coming then I think this could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars at the moment.

The Australian economy has been showing signs of problems recently with employment, economic growth and inflation so I think the RBA will signal that there are further rate cuts to be made but depending on the timelines offered this could cause a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates overnight.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of looking to convert Australian Dollars then pay close attention to the decision made as well as the RBA’s accompanying statement.

I have personally worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote then send me an email with an outline of your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs Australian Dollar rates improve after Theresa May’s speech

The Pound hit 1.86 against the Australian Dollar yesterday afternoon after what has been a very busy week so far for GBPAUD exchange rates.

The election over the weekend was won by the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison who will remain in power for a full term.

He originally replaced the previous leader back in August so a new full term has helped to settle the Australian economy.

This is turn helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound over the weekend but since then the Pound has fought back following Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday afternoon.

Theresa May has warned MPs that they have ‘one last chance’ to deliver Brexit and she is anxious to get this new deal backed in the House of Commons in early June.

However, although some amendments have been made I cannot see this deal getting accepted which will trigger her in to announcing her resignation timeline.

Theresa May has also suggested that it may even mean that Brexit could even be cancelled. The Prime Minister also hinted that a second referendum may be held if there is enough appetite in parliament for it to take place.

All this news has helped the Pound to recover against a number of different currencies and good news for anyone looking to exchange Pounds into Australian Dollars.

However, later this week we also have the European elections due and this could cause some uncertainty for the Pound so if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of this current spike.

If you would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident about saving you money as well as helping you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Daniel Johnson

GBP/AUD – Brexit continues to dictate GBP/AUD and at present the situation remains in Limbo. Theresa May has now failed on three separate occasions with her deal and at present the default action if a deal is not reached by 12th April is the UK will leave the EU with no deal. Both sides are desperate to avoid this situation and it looks as though the outcome will be an extension.

How long the extension will be and with what stipulations is what is being hastily negotiated. May favours a short extension whereas Brussels would like a flexible year extension in place.

I believe an extension is already factored into current GBP/AUD levels as the market moves on rumour as well as fact. I would expect Sterling to gain value if an extension is confirmed as investor concerns are eased. Do not expect any great shakes however.

GBP/AUD has remained above the key resistance point of 1.80 despite the lack of progress in Brexit talks, I think this can be mainly attributed to the probability of a no deal remaining low with the vast majority of the House of Commons set against allowing a no deal scenario to occur.

I think Sterling will however remain fragile until we have firm news on Brexit, which now could be some way off. The Australian Dollar has it’s own concerns however. Housing prices in high wage growth areas continue to inflate and Australians are being forced to spend their money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services which is hurting the economy. The ongoing trade war between the US and China is also a key concern. Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports, particularly iron ore. In fact iron ore value has been known to cause sways in the value of the Aussie.  The trade war is influencing Chinese growth which in turn has an impact on the Australian economy and the Australian Dollar.

Investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies in favour of what is considered to be safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the US Dollar.

I think if it were not for Brexit we could be seeing gains for Sterling against the Aussie, but at present you really need someone with an eye on the markets for you if you wish to take advantage of any spikes on the market, which recently have only been small windows of opportunity.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

Pound to Australian Dollar rate today and what will happen to rates after 29th March?

The Pound has been challenging 1.87 on the Interbank level against the Australian Dollar over the last few days but has struggled to hold on to its gains for any sustained period.

Sterling has made the gains owing to a number of reasons but arguably the two most important factors affecting the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is that of China and Brexit.

The impact of China on the Australian Dollar

China appears to be back tracking on its arrangements with the US in terms of its trading position and this is likely to impact trade between China and Australia. The Trade Wars are still going on between the two superpowers and this is causing a problem for the Australian Dollar.

China is Australia’s largest consumer of its natural resources and as Australia is heavily influenced by commodity prices as well as demand from the world’s second largest economy any reduction in demand will often tend to weaken the Australian Dollar and this appears to be what is happening at the moment.

The impact of Brexit on the Pound to the Australian Dollar

Turning the focus back towards what is happening in the UK and it is Brexit that is dominating all the headlines at the moment. The Speaker of the House John Bercow recently announced that the Prime Minister will not be allowed to hold another ‘meaningful vote’ if the new deal is very similar to that already proposed which was voted against recently.

With just ten days to go before the UK is set to leave the European Union things are still uncertain as to what will happen next. The likelihood is that Brexit will be postponed but for how long is the most important question.

Theresa May is due to travel to Brussels to discuss the terms of any delay but all the 27 members of the European Union will have to agree to any proposed extension period so there is still a risk to the value of the Pound.

I personally think that a no deal Brexit will be avoided and an extension will be granted and once this happens depending on the length of the delay I think this could provide the Pound with some real support against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

AUD Forecast – Despite Brexit Uncertainty the AUD Remains Under Pressure (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has come under increasing pressure over recent weeks, with the Pound now trading around 1.87.

GBP has regained approximately 5 cents in the past few weeks, which is the equivalent of an additional 5000 AUD on 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

The Pound has made these inroads despite the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit. With the UK’s current exit deadline fast approaching, we still do not have any clarity on what the final outcome will be and this in itself you could argue, should be restricting any major improvement for GBP.

It seems as though the markets have spiked on the back of Parliaments decision last week, to move away from a no-deal Brexit outcome. However, unless UK Prime Minster Theresa May can convince MP’s to vote on her Brexit deal at the third time of asking, then an extension to Article 50 looks like the only remaining option.

How long any prospective extension might be is now what the markets will likely focus on and any further improvements for the Pound, will likely be impacted by this decision. With rumours of a two-year extension being floated, how will investors and the public react to such a scenario?

If an extension is granted without any indication of an agreement being virtually in place, then investor confidence could take a hit. It is likely to be followed my major public unrest, with people seemingly losing patience with the on-going saga.

Looking at the Australian economy and with concerns over falling house prices and a slowdown in global trade, investors seem to be shying away from the once popular AUD.

Add this to concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will look to cut interest rates possibly twice this year and it is easier to understand why the Pound has made inroads against the AUD of late, despite investors remaining cautious about the Pound and its future prospects.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

AUD Forecast – Heavy Losses for the AUD Overnight as Interest Rate Hike Looks Extremely Unlikely (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has made significant gains against the AUD overnight, gaining almost three cents.

It currently trading at 1.8176, having been marooned below 1.79 during the early part of the trading week.

What’s surprising is that this improvement has come about despite the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK’s impending Brexit, with talks between the UK and EU once again seemingly at an impasse.

This indicates that last night’s heavy losses for the AUD were linked to a sharp drop in investor confidence in the AUD, rather than any major influx into the Pound.

This means those clients holding GBP and looking to buy AUD have been given a window of opportunity, which equates to an additional 3000 AUD on a 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

The reason the AUD lost significant value is likely linked to comments made overnight by the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Philip Lowe, who indicated that the central bank were unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon, meaning that they will likely be kept at record lows for the foreseeable future.

The Australian economy was already under pressure due to the current trade standoff between the US and China. With no long-term solution in sight, despite rumours that President Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this month, the outlook for the AUD does not look overly positive.

Australia relies heavily on trade with China and with China’s demand slowing, this will inevitably have a negative impact on the Australian economy and ultimately the AUD.

With a slowdown in global growth also impacting commodity-based currencies such as the AUD, how GBP/AUD rates will evolve over the coming weeks and beyond, will depend much on whether or not the UK can ultimately agree a Brexit deal with the EU.

If the UK fails to do this, then the AUD is likely to be inadvertently boosted by a sell-off of GBP positons.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Brexit debate to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Today debating begins in the House of Commons and I expect this will be the key driver for GBPAUD exchange rates for the remainder of the week. Most media outlets are suggesting that Theresa May has failed to gain further concessions from the EU, therefore the next 3 days could be tricky for the Prime Minister and consequently the pound could suffer.

Going into next week, Conservative MPs are going to have to ask themselves whether voting in favor of Theresa May’s ‘good deal’ is better than voting against her and consequently entering a complete unknown. It’s likely if MPs vote against her, the Prime Minister will take the trip back to Brussels to try to renegotiate. However the problem I have with that is she has lost all of her bargaining chips now that MPs are pushing her to confirm that a no deal Brexit is completely off the table. If the UK are not prepared to leave the EU with a no deal Brexit why are the Europeans going to give further concessions?

Other alternatives would be for Labour to file a motion of confidence against the government which could force a general election, Theresa May to resign, a peoples vote or a no deal Brexit. Most of the alternatives I expect will cause more pain for clients that are buying Australian dollars.

Prime Ministers questions start at midday and the debate will follow. To be kept up to to date as developments unfold feel free to outline your requirements.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your requirements. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.