Tag Archives: Brexit

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate recover back to pre-Brexit levels anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a 1 and a half cent difference between the high and low for GBP/AUD today, as the pair appear to be continuing to decide which direction to move in next.

Sterling has performed in a mixed fashion against the majority of major currency pairs today and I think the economic data released this morning is perhaps one of the reasons for this.

This morning the office for national statistics (ONS) reported that annualised UK Inflation figures for January showed 3%, justifying the Bank of England’s concerns regarding the rising rates of inflation. This was above the expectation of 2.9% and and considerably above the BoE’s 2% inflationary target figure.

The potential for another rate hike from the BoE is now more realistic, and with wage growth now beginning to show signs of an improvement I think there is a chance of it happening this year which is why the pound has been climbing.

GBP/AUD is currently just under 1.80, and if the pair breach this key level I can imagine seeing the rate break through into the 1.80’s even if it’s proving a stubborn barrier up until this point. A move towards 2.00 would be back to pre-Brexit levels, and should AUD continue to weaken I think seeing GBP/AUD closer to this mark sometime throughout 2018 isn’t something to be ruled out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD remains at 1.77 after RBA opts to hold interest rates (Joseph Wright)

The Reserve Bank of Australia last night chose to keep interest rates unchanged, which was the expected outcome from economists leaving the currency markets unchanged at 1.5%.

This was the first chance the RBA had to make a change this year, and the base rate has remained at 1.5% for around a year and a half now. Many central banks have opted to hike interest rates in recent months, and should this continue it will result in the Australian interest rates being uncompetitive and therefore AUD weakness in my opinion.

Last year AUD benefited from offering one of the highest interest rates in the developed world. Investors are keen to hold funds in a high yielding currency but should AUD lose its competitive edge, it’s likely that money will be taken out of the Aussie Dollar and we’ll see it fall.

Politics also have the potential to move the GBP/AUD pair, especially at the moment as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is in London to discuss the UK’s plans and proposals for Brexit this week.

Those following the Pounds value should be aware of this and the potential it has to impact GBP exchange rates should any key comments be made, and do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major rate spike.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

FED interest rate decision to impact Australian dollar exchange rates

This evening the Federal Reserve (United States Central Bank) will release their latest interest rate decision and for the last time Chairlady of the FED Janet Yellen will give her last press conference as Chair. For clients that are buying or selling Australian dollar it’s important to understand that decisions made in the US have a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates.

In recent weeks most major currencies have benefited from the demise in the US. President Donald Trump at present is trying to pull the US out of NAFTA which is the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. These negotiations are on going and could take 12 months. Nevertheless the US dollar has lost value and the Australian dollar has benefited.

The FED decision tonight could indicate whether the UK will raise interest 3 times this like predicted at the beginning of the year or if forecasts have changed. Personally I expect this release to weaken the US dollar further which could benefit most G10 currencies. Later in the week Non farm payroll numbers, which is the amount of jobs created in the US will be released at 1.30pm and this release could also have an impact on exchange rates.

The next key data release to look out for in regards to the Australian economy is the interest rate decision on the 6th. Inflation numbers showed a slight improvement in January, however the Reserve Bank of Australia are unlikely to hint towards any rate hike anytime sooner. Therefore I don’t expect this event to help provide strength for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

 

AUD Forecast – AUD Under Pressure Despite On-going Brexit Concerns (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s positive run continued throughout Wednesday’s trading, moving back above 1.76 against the AUD.

The Pound has been well supported across the board, bringing with it some much needed optimism ahead of the next round of Brexit talks.

The AUD has found it difficult to make any real impact, with the Pound now likely to find plenty of support between 1.70-1.75.

Whilst the current rates may still not look overly attractive based on historical levels, the Pound has certainly seemed to gain something of a foothold over recent weeks. We must continually  remind ourselves that the goals posts have shifted since the Brexit decision. As a result I feel that the current spike offers some value to those clients looking to exchange GBP/AUD positions.

This week’s positive move is even more surprising when you consider how poor the UK Retail Sales figures were on Friday and clients have been asking what the catalyst was behind this positive spike.

Whilst it’s impossible to give a universal answer, the upturn at least in some part could be attributed, at least in some part, due to a report by the former Conservative Treasury minister Lord Jim O’Neill.

Despite being a vigorous Remain campaigner, he argued that Britain “should prepare for a much more economically optimistically 2018”, citing better than predicated global growth as the reason.

He believes that Britain’s growth forecasts will be upgraded, due to China, the US and Europe showing increased economic activity.

Whilst this view is unlikely to be shared by all, the Pound seems to have benefited as a result.

Looking at the Australian economy and early year financial reports have indicated that the Australian economy is set to continue to grow in 2018. If this prediction comes to fruition it will be Australia’s 27th year of uninterrupted growth.

This in itself is an impressive statistic, especially when you consider there have been at least three major global recessions during this period.

Whilst the Australian economy is of course not impenetrable, it continues to benefit from high levels of skilled immigration and a booming mining industry, which helps to support their continued growth.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate break out of its current trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar buying rate is continuing to hover around the 1.73 mark at the mid-market level.

Whilst there have been some short term moves away from this level the pairs movements have been relatively tame for the last few weeks, which is quite a change considering how the pair has moved over the past couple of years.

Since the Brexit vote and the fall in the Pounds value due to the shock of the referendum outcome, the pair have remained range-bound between 1.5950 and 1.7950. With the pair currently trading quite comfortably above 1.70 I think it’s fair to say that the Pound is closer to the top end of its 18-month trend as opposed to the bottom, and those planning on converting Pounds into Aussie Dollars should consider this.

Sentiment surround the Australian economy has been buoyed today after Australian Consumer Confidence figures came out better than expected in the early hours of this morning.

This is the best level since the end of 2013 and if economic data releases and gauges down under continue to impress we could see the Aussie strengthen and push the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.70.

If you’re following the pair and would like to be kept updated should there be a big move for the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Key economic data releases which will impact AUDGBP / GBPAUD exchange rates this week

For clients that converted Australian dollars into sterling or sterling into Australian dollars last week, both sets of clients were provided opportunity which many of clients took advantage of.

Thursday morning Retail Sales numbers were released for Australia and the numbers exceeded expectation which provided an extra cent for clients holding Australian dollars and purchasing sterling. Furthermore the tides turned Friday afternoon when reports were suggesting the Spanish and Dutch finance ministers had agreed that they seek the softest Brexit deal as possible, which is good news for the UK economy and consequently sterling.

This week the first key release which will impact GBPAUD exchange rates is the UK inflation numbers Tuesday morning. Forecasts are suggesting a slight rise to 3.2%. If this occurs more questions will be asked of the Bank of England, and consequently I expect this could provide a boost for the pound. However medium term forecasts are suggesting that inflation will drop over the next 6 months below 3% so I don’t expect a reaction from the central bank.

Later in the week (Thursday morning) Australia release Employment change, Unemployment rate and Participation rate numbers. Forecasts are suggesting all three releases are close to previous therefore if this is the case this could be a non event. However regular readers will be aware that Unemployment rate numbers can have a major impact on future monetary policy therefore keep a close eye on this release.

GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 cents in 6 weeks, and with Brexit negotiations on going, many leading forecasters having a difference of opinion in regards to the future of the Australian dollar, I expect exchange rates will continue to fluctuate. Therefore if I were converting GBPAUD exchange rates I would look to use a limit order, which allows you to set a target rate and if the market spikes to that rate our automatic system will buy the currency on your behalf.

For more information on how I can help you save money on your currency transfer feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Rates improve to sell Australian Dollars into Pounds (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has improved during the course of December after getting close to breaking past 1.80 just over a week ago.

The Australian Dollar has fought back against Sterling after the problems with the ongoing saga of Brexit.

Indeed, although talks have been allowed to move forwards towards phase two of the discussions we have not really seen any gains for the Pound vs the AUD as we are still headed for a long period of uncertainty ahead.

Australian employment figures have come out a lot better than expected recently which has provided the Australian Dollar with some recent strength against the Pound.

This has led to the possibility of a potential interest rate hike coming in Australia as it means the economy could possibly cope with a further rate hike and that has strengthened the Australian Dollar against the Pound.

Indeed, with all the uncertainty from the Brexit saga ongoing all the commodity based currencies including the NZD & South African Rand have improved against Sterling.

On Tuesday, Australia releases its latest minutes from the last RBA meeting.

If we see any hints towards a rate hike or any appetite for this in the new year then we could see further strength for the Australian Dollar against the Pound so make sure you’re ready to move quickly if required.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

 

Will the Pound hit 1.80 against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has maintained its strength against the Australian Dollar during the course of the week even though the the political situation in the UK remains uncertain concerning the Brexit talks.

The DUP are rejecting a ‘regulatory alignment’ between Northern Ireland and Ireland which is also being resisted against by a number of other members in government. The DUP are unlikely to allow a border in the middle of the sea as this could cause huge problems politically for Ireland.

Although the Brexit is clearly causing a lot of uncertainty at the moment there appear to be real problems for the economy down under in Australia.

Australian GDP figures released showed a big drop from 0.9% in quarter two to 0.6% in the previous quarter. This is likely to keep interest rates on hold as the RBA clearly will not want to cause a downturn for the economy.

Indeed, consumer spending has also seen a big slowdown in Australia which has slowed at is lowest pace since 2008 which is another reason for GBPAUD exchange rates moving in an upwards direction.

I think the Brexit is the biggest issue to concern anyone with a requirement to either buy or sell Australian Dollars but with things slowing down under this is the reason why I think there is a possibility we’ll see GBPAUD exchange rates move towards 1.80.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer in the coming days, weeks or months then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

Could GBPAUD break through 1.80 this week? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week GBPAUD hit a 1 year high. Over the last three months the pound has been making considerable inroads against the Australian dollar. Exchange rates have increased from 1.62 to 1.77 and therefore a £200,000 currency transfer today compared to three months ago will generate our clients an additional AU$30,000.

The pound made further inroads against the Aussie last week when UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK are willing to pay €50bn to the EU as a divorce settlement and the EU appeared to be happy with the offer.

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to meet President of the European Commision Jean Claude Juncker and President of the European Council Donald Tusk tomorrow to discuss Brexit further. The divorce settlement bill will be discussed further but a hot topic will be the Irish border.

This weekend in particular, The Republic of Ireland have stated a hard border splitting the Republic of Ireland and Northern Island is not an option and Donald Tusk has announced he would back Ireland over the UK as Ireland will remain a member of the EU.

Reports are suggesting that Theresa May’s teem believe it’s impossible to put a deal on the table for Ireland until the UK know the deal they will receive with the EU in regards to trade. Further reports Rumours suggest Mr Tusk actually agrees with Theresa May therefore I expect this topic will be put on hold on to trade discussions have begun. Therefore I expect the pound to continue to rise against that Australian dollar this week and in fact this month.

For people that buy and sell Australian dollars on a regular basis or are looking to make a one off transfer, the currency company I work for can save you money. Feel free to send me the reason for why you are converting currency, the currency pair you are trading (AUDGBP, AUDUSD), and the timescales you are working to and I will send you my forecast and the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPAUD break through 1.75 by the end of the year? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Economic data in recent weeks has meant that GBPAUD exchange rates have increased by 8 cents and broken through the 1.70 barrier. The reason for the improvement is positive news coming from the UK in regards to Brexit and a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Brexit negotiations are heating up and decisions are close to being made. Friday evening Michel Barnier gave a two week deadline for the UK to make key decisions surrounding EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the UK’s “divorce bill”.

The theory on the market is that if the UK and EU come to an agreement in the upcoming weeks and trade negotiations start before or just after the turn of the year, this could give sterling exchange rates a considerable boost.

The Reserve Bank of Australia have been given dovish statements of late and the recent RBA minutes last week confirmed that the RBA have no interest of raising interest rates anytime soon.

Couple this with Iron ore prices tumbling down under and some forecasters suggesting another substantial fall is on the horizon due to the slowdown in China’s construction industry you can understand why the Australian dollar is under pressure.

Looking further ahead if the Australian economy continues on the same path and the UK reach a deal with the EU so trade negotiations begin, I expect GBPAUD will break through 1.75.

Therefore if you are buying Australian dollars with sterling and are prepared to take the risk holding off may provide a better exchange rate in the weeks to come, however if you are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling now is the time to convert your currency.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.