Tag Archives: Buying AUD

US-China Trade War does not bode well for AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Prolonged Trade War could hit the Australian Dollar

Sterling remains fragile against the majority of major currencies due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, I feel GBP/AUD would be even lower than current levels if it were not for the US-China trade war.

Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and services and the trade war is causing a slow down in economic growth. China has being going tit for tat on tariffs with the US and despite the current pause the situation has the potential to escalate.

The onus is on China to get the trade war sorted as quickly as possible. The trade war is a threat to China’s already slowing economy, growth missed economist’s forecasts by 0.1% in the 3rd quarter landing at 6.5%. This is the weakest quarterly growth since 2008.

There is a disproportionate effect on China when compared to the US. China’s exports to the US amounts to a bigger section of the Chinese economy than the amount to which China-bound US exports represent to the US economy. In 2017 China exported USD 50bln of goods to the States form  a USD 12trn total. This is compared to the US who exported USD 130bln worth of goods to China from USD 19trln GDP.

At present there is a 90 day pause on tariffs which commenced at the beginning of December. The US has agreed to hold back on a 25% increase on Chinese products if China agree to negotiate making fundamental changes to it’s current economic model. A 25% increase is extremely high and would no doubt have a severe impact on both economies.

This does not bode well for the Aussie. If it were not for the debacle that is Brexit I think we would be witnessing the Pound strengthen against the Australian Dollar. Brussels have stated they are not willing to make any changes to May’s deal and it glaringly obvious it will not get voted through parliament in it’s current form. We could be looking at a leadership challenge for Corbyn or a no deal scenario which would both hurt Sterling even more. I feel a second referendum could boost Sterling as polls suggest voters would now wish to remain in the EU, I think May would have to go for this scenario to emerge.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Thank you for reading.

Sterling falls after strong words from the EU, will GBP/AUD continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board today, after some strong words from the EU negotiating team regarding Brexit have caused Sterling bulls some cause for concern.

It appears that issues surrounding the Northern Irish border and how the customs union will continue along with whether there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Regular readers of ours will be aware that it’s Brexit related data that’s causing GBP exchange rates to move the most dramatically at the moment, and today is no different as such as an update from Michel Barnier is impacting the Pounds value to a greater extent than the news of a rate hike from the Bank of England recently.

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is now dropping into the mid 1.70’s after testing the late 1.70’s in recent weeks. Tomorrow there is the potential for further price movement as there will be there release of Manufacturing data which will cover expectations moving forward. Then on Friday there will be Services PMI which again will cover sentiment moving forward in what’s a very important sector for the UK.

If you would like to plan around these events do feel free to get in touch with me. Also Bank of England governor Mark Carney and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be speaking on Friday which may move markets, so again it’s worth being aware of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.


Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in October?

The pound to Australian dollar rate is looking more and more fragile in recent weeks yet has remained in the higher 1.60’s and even over 1.70 since the beginning of September. With wage growth a concern and consumer confidence starting to slip there is a growing concern there will not be any interest rate hikes for some time down under. This has seen the Australian dollar weaker as investor debate the next move from the RBA, further weakness on the Australian dollar would not be too surprising at all.

Buying Australian dollars with pounds has become much less costly in the last month as the pound surged on an expectation the Bank of England might raise interest rates next month. Coupled with mounting concerns over the dates for any possible Australian interest rate hikes GBPAUD climbed to some of the best rates since June.

Despite the inherent uncertainty over Brexit the pound is much better supported on renewed belief the UK Government under Theresa May will deliver Brexit. With a transitional period being discussed to extend the time frame for when the UK legally leaves the EU, there is now scope for the pound to find more support.

Whilst uncertainty over Brexit and a renewed confidence in the Aussie could see us shift lower in the the mid 1.60’s or even lower, for now the outlook seems to favour GBPAUD in a range of 1.68-1.73, I see it finding supporting above 1.70 in the next few weeks.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollar making plans around these key events is vital to getting the best deals. If you wish to discuss your transfer in more detail please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate hits an 8-week high after Bank of England hints at a rate hike, will this upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound rose sharply today against all major currency pairs after comments from the governor of the Bank of England buoyed the markets.

Up until lunchtime today it had appeared that the Bank of England hadn’t planned on hiking interest rates in the UK until 2019, but that changed this afternoon after a number of comments from Mark Carney (the governor of the Bank of England) hit the financial headlines.

After a higher than expected inflation figure earlier this week, the Pound had climbed slightly on hopes that the BoE would act sooner, and today those hopes materialised which is why we’re seeing the Pound climb so steeply.

Generally speaking, an interest rate hike is considered a positive for the underlying currency in question, hence the sharp rise as the markets mere mostly shocked.

Carney stated that the possibility of a rate hike has increased, and that rates may need to be adjusted in the coming months. He also stated that that he was among the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee members that believe some withdrawal of monetary stimulus will be needed in the coming months.

With comments such as these I expect to see the Pound continue to climb from its current levels, especially if they continue and the rate hikes are carried out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in September?

I have been suspecting that GBPAUD will be falling fairly soon back under 1.60 as the problems ahead for the UK come further to the surface and investors continue to back the Australian dollar. Markets are bracing themselves for further uncertainty over Brexit and with the UK’s economic data going from worse to worse as the uncertainty continues we will undoubtedly see the pound continue to struggle in the future.

With the pound likely to remain at the mercy of Brexit developments and no concrete news expected until 2018, clients holding sterling awaiting any quick turnaround could be waiting some time. A further deterioration in the outlook could really be on the cards, the one thing markets do not like is uncertainty.

Another factor in the GBPAUD equation that is not helping AUD buyers is the Australian dollar is getting stronger. This is because the economic conditions in Australia are very positive and we have also had the currency finding favour from uncertainty elsewhere. Essentially the Australian dollar is used by investors because it offers a very high interest rate. So investors will buy the Australian dollar to get a higher return on their funds.

Australia offers 1.5% interest from the central bank whereas many other countries are offering much less, some are offering zero interest! Therefore in the absence of any possible rises in interest rates elsewhere the Australian dollar is being used by investors to park their cash to benefit from the rates, therefore it strengthens.

So there is a strong likelihood that the continuations of the current trends will weigh further on the GBPAUD exchange rate, I would not be surprised to see the levels slip below 1.60. If you are considering making a transfer buying the Australian dollar in the future I would suggest making some plans sooner than later is the best way forward.

To discuss the latest trends and themes and get the latest news on the rates please feel free to highlight any possible transfers to us. Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss and learn more!

Where can we expect GBPAUD rates to go in August?

I would be very surprised to see GBPAUD slip below 1.60 but equally surprised to see it rise above 1.70. Current levels in and around the 1.65 represent a fairly mid range price from what we have been used to for most of 2017. The pound has of course been the big loser with uncertainty over the Brexit but trends on the Australian dollar have also been really important. If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars understanding the market and all of your options is key to maximising the opportunity for your transfer.

Yesterday was the big news for the GBPAUD exchange rate, the UK’s Super Thursday of data releases including the Bank of England and the Quarterly Inflation Report. The pound could easily drift lower in the coming weeks but the move yesterday was definitely something for both buyers and sellers of Australian dollars to take note of. Basically the lack of any interest rate hike for the UK makes it very difficult to expect the pound to rise sharply this month. What can we learn from this?

If you have a transfer to make buying the Australian dollar with pounds the outlook for sterling remains uncertain and expecting big improvements could be very risky as many clients have found out recently. Conversely clients looking to sell AUD for GBP are in a very good position because of the weakness of the pound which is representing a very good opportunity for them to sell.

I expect GBPAUD to trade in a range of between 1.62 and 1.67 for the rest of August. If you have a transfer to make in the coming weeks and wish for a better level please let me know by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and please let me know if there is anything I can help with.

Busy week for Australian dollar exchange rates! Will we rise above 1.70 on GBPAUD?

Tonight and later this week is some critical data for the Australian and global economy that may well shape exchange rates. Exchange rates move all the time for a variety of reasons but one of the main factors driving the Aussie are the outlooks from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The raising or lowering of the interest rate from the RBA has a massive impact on the movements on the Australian dollar as it alters investors perception over the currency. Tonight’s RBA news in the form of the Rate Statement and Interest Rate decision will be closely watched for its effect on the AUD and therefore GBPAUD rates.

Movements of a few cent in either direction cannot be ruled out as whilst the market believed the RBA would not have any change in policy the potential for the market to shift is always high on the Aussie. Owing to the higher interest rate in Australia of 1.5% versus other leading economies of less than 0% or very low interest rates, the AUD is used because of its higher ‘yield’. Like a higher interest rate on a bank account investors will use the Aussie to earn more on their money, therefore any shifts in the likelihood of that interest rate changing down the line will see the currency swing.

Key news later this week not just from Australia but also from the US could see changes in these global sentiments which make the AUD more or less attractive to hold. Clients looking to buy or sell the Aussie should be most aware of the potential for sudden switches in direction, if you are looking to make a transfer why not take a few minutes to contact me highlighting your position so that I can keep you updated on potential developments.

Despite the pound weaker many commentators are stating that perhaps the pound has been oversold. I really couldn’t rule out some small improvements but the likelihood of the pound struggling in the future remains high. If you have a transfer to make and wish for some assistance please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will GBPAUD reach back to 1.70?

If you are holding pounds and looking to buy Australian dollars it has been a stressful period with the pound failing to spike as many had predicted on the back of the UK election. There was a belief the pound would rally to perhaps over 1.80, the Aussie having been on the back foot as Chinese data was failing to live up to expectation. Lately however the Chinese data is looking much better which, in conjunction with the pound sliding as the hung parliament divides opinion over the British pound, has seen the GBPAUD rate slip too. If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars making some plans around the next twist and turn is crucial since the current market is not pointing clearly in either direction.

We offer detailed insight and strategy to clients looking to move large volumes of currency around the world generally following property transactions or business transfers. This is because when moving such large volumes of say 50,000 GBP up to multi-millions a small difference in the exchange rate can mean a huge difference in the amount of currency you receive. Getting the timing and planning right is crucial to getting the best deals on the rates.

For clients looking towards the GBPAUD exchange rate pairing looking for better rates this week could offer some fresh opportunities with the latest fresh news over the UK’s political situation and also news relating to the Chinese economy. Since the Chinese economy is so closely linked to the Australian dollar keeping up to date with information here is crucial to getting the best rates. If you have a transfer to make this week has a number of releases which could see the GBPAUD rate move say 1 – 2 cents presenting a quick opportunity for savvy buyers and sellers!

For more information on the best rates and how to manage your exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. If there is anything I can help with please don’t hesitate to contact me directly.

Buying and selling Australian Dollar rates finally expected to re-emerge from political limbo (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has been in a very visible limbo since the inconclusive election result, with Australian Dollar buyers and sellers waiting for news on where rate trends are expected to go moving forward.

That is not to say the interim period has been lacklustre and boring. Far from it. It is simply that economics has taken over in the meantime.

This has been the saga of interest rates which has been a dominant factor in currency value since last year, with the US being the first developed country to raise interest rates since the financial crisis.

Public disagreements between the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and members of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee over whether to raise interest rates in the UK or not has seen the Pound behaving like a yo-yo in recent weeks, but with little overall change.

The deciding factor will be the official formation of a minority Government next week, with official voting on their manifesto to go through Thursday-Friday to conclude the month of June.

The fact that any resolution seems likely to help the Pound given the hints noted recently on currency markets should be in the forefront of anyone with a Australian Dollar requirement’s thought process. The question at this point arguably is just how much the Pound will rise up against the Australian Dollar next week, and not if. 

In this context Australian Dollar buyers do not seem to have the same level of urgency as Australian Dollar sellers. You can secure exchange rates for AUD/GBP beofre interbank rates are expected rise back above 1.70 by contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk. Even if your requirement is not until the end of the year, you can pre-book your currency at current attractive levels using the tools available at a specialist currency brokerage. There is not additional cost to pre-book.

I strongly recommend that if you have a currency requirement to buy Australian Dollars to contact me again on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your AUD return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you a significant sum on a prospective transfer.