Tag Archives: buying australian dollars

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of the Brexit deal

After hitting above 1.80 earlier this month the rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds has fallen in to the 1.75 levels on the Interbank.

Primarily this was caused by the huge losses in the value of the Pound against a number of major currencies owing to the issues surrounding the proposed Brexit deal.

However, it was not just the news in the UK that caused the Pound to fall against the Australian Dollar.

During the course of this week the economy down under showed an improvement in the unemployment rate which fell to 5% and this caused investors to move money in to the AUD as it shows signs of a more positive economy.

The main news that caused the drop in the value of the Pound was the proposed Brexit deal. This caused a number of senior ministers to hand in their resignations including Brexit secretary Dominic Raab. He left citing differences in the deal and that he could not be part of the government owing to certain issues in the proposed deal which he could not agree upon.

Could the Brexit deal be changed?

Meanwhile this weekend a number of senior ministers in the Conservatives are planning to try and make changes to the draft Brexit deal.

Included in the group are Michael Gove and Liam Fox who have previously thrown their support behind Theresa May.

The Prime Minister has been busy trying to persuade the British public that she is determined to see this deal through.

The next stumbling block could come on 25th November when the EU summit takes place. The likelihood is that this is likely to get ratified but the real sticking point will come when the parliament has its say.

The current expectation is that the EU will approve the deal but that parliament will reject it and then the UK government will have 21 days to put forward a new plan and I think this will will increase the pressure on the value of the Pound.

Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth getting this organised relatively quickly.

If you are thinking about making a currency transfer and would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/AUD drops after May’s Brexit deal looks unlikely to get the support she needs

The Pound is down across the board of major currency pairs today, in most cases by over 1% at least with the GBP/AUD rate down by over 1.6% at the time of writing. Yesterday the Pound was increasing in value on hopes of May’s cabinet supporting her deal, but this morning the situation is very different with Sterling under increasing pressure.

This morning its emerged that Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary that took over from David Davis after he resigned, has this morning resigned himself stating that he ‘cannot in good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU’. This has put further pressure on Sterling with money markets now suggesting the chances of another interest rate hike from the Bank of England has now lowered.

Whether the Aussie Dollar will continue to climb against the Pound this morning will depend on whether there are further resignations from her cabinet, and also whether May can pass her Brexit deal through Parliament. The rumour mill suggests she will need to gain the support of of more than 50 hardcore Tory Brexiteers and Labour rebels. Donald Tusk has also hinted at concerns May could lose her position which would scupper the plans agreed over the past week.

Some key figures from within the hardcore Brexit movement have already announced their disapproval, and I think there could be further resignations based of the knee jerk reaction to her proposals.

Economic data is likely to take a back seat regarding GBP exchange rates at the moment, with Brexit remaining the main driver of currency value. If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

RBA Statement boosts the AUD: Where next for the Australian dollar?

The Aussie rises…

The Australian dollar is stronger overnight following an upbeat assessment from the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia is loosely looking to raise interest rates in the future which would help the AUD to rise. It has risen overnight following the commentary that saw them raise their Inflation and Growth forecasts.

Another factor to drive the Australian dollar is the outlook on the Trade Wars which have seen the Australian dollar rising according to the viewpoint on how it will influence the Chinese economy. Recent rising expectations that the Trade Wars would gently resolve themselves have cooled but the initial fears that saw the Aussie massively sold off, have subsided.

Global Issues remain

I expect the Trade Wars will continue to provide concern, it seems more likely than not that Donald Trump will trigger some kind of concern on global financial markets which would weaken the Australian dollar. If not owing to economic concerns abroad, it might be political concerns domestically in the US which drive the Aussie.

The recent mid-term elections saw the US dollar lose ground against most currencies with the Australian dollar a beneficiary of the uncertainty. The Aussie did rise on this news, as investors sought to diversify their currency exposure away from the US and possible political issues ahead.

As you can see, there are numerous global factors which drive the Australian. Trying to accurately predict what the rates will be will involve accurately predicting not only what Donald Trump might do, but also how the market might react to it. Some might suggest Donald Trump does not know exactly what he will do next, trying to predict him will be no easy feat!

What lies ahead for GBPAUD rates?

GBPAUD levels have fallen below 1.80 on the news, could the RBA be preparing to raise interest rates? Westpac do not think so, with them believing the RBA will hold through 2019 and 2020. There is even a view that the RBA may cut rates, by some who feel Australia’s booming housing market and highly indebted consumers cannot stand a hike.

Whilst the pound has been notably buoyant across most currencies, rising to some of the best rates all year or certainly multi-week or month highs, the pound to Australian dollar rate has not performed so well. Whilst we are tracking improved levels, we are still down owing to the Australian dollar also performing well.

GBPAUD exchange rates hit a peak of 1.8713 in October of this year, significantly above the 1.5909 lows of Brexit in October 2016 following the EU Referendum. Current rates of 1.79-1.80 are therefore below the peak but above the average.

Mix into this the uncertainty on Brexit (who can accurately predict the outcome there either?) and we have a plethora of events to move GBPAUD rates. My general expectation is that the pound will rise further against a weaker AUD if the global concerns continue on Trade Wars. I think the threat of a ‘new world order’ of more protectionism will see the Australian dollar weaker in the future, particularly as that uncertainty will keep the RBA on hold or possibly looking to cut.

Will you need to make a transfer?

For clients with a position selling Australian dollars for pounds, I feel gearing up to capitalise on the recent spike is sensible. Clients buying AUD with sterling might wish to take a slightly more speculative view but in hoping for further improvements, they could easily get caught out relying on a smooth Brexit process.

If you have a position to buy or sell AUD for sterling I would be most interested to share some of the latest news and events driving this pair. There is no easy answer to the question of ‘when is the best time buy or sell Australian dollars?’, but by careful analysis and utilising our experience in tracking trends, we do strive to offer an informed opinion to help you make the most of your currency needs.

Thank you for reading and please contact me to discuss further.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Retail Sales down under disappoint but AUD remains resilient, where to next for the GBP/AUD pair?

Despite some disappointing data being released in the early hours of this morning, the Aussie Dollar has remained resilient against the Pound even though its dropped off of it’s 1-month high against the US Dollar.

Retail Sales rose just 0.2% through September which was below expectations, and now there are concerns that 3rd quarter economic growth could disappoint. The GDP figure for the 3rd quarter will be released in early December so I expect economic data releases covering the Australian economies health to be followed closely. Despite the softening against the US Dollar as a result of this morning’s early release the AUD/USD rate has still strengthened by over 1.5% throughout this week.

The Aussie Dollar has also gained value vs the Pound this week although not quite to the same extent as AUD/USD. Moving forward the pair are most likely to be driven more by the Pound’s value and how its impacted by the Brexit developments. Sterling has strengthened against a raft of currencies over the past few days after a number of positive updates have been released. On Wednesday the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab suggested that the deal could be in place by November the 21st, which saw a spike in GBP exchange rates as hopes of the deal being wrapped up during this month had waned after talks stalled during October.

Then on Thursday morning news broke that there is a deal in principle for the UK to retain access to EU financial markets after the Brexit has taken place, and this also pushed GBP exchange rates higher which is in my opinion why the Aussie Dollars gains against the Pound this week haven’t been as substantial as the they have vs the USD.

If you’re planning on making a currency transfer involving the pairs discussed today, and would like an opinion on the rates or an update if they move dramatically, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit talks hinder Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but are Australian house prices set for a crash?

Sterling has continued to drift lower vs the Australian Dollar as the topic of Brexit continues to rumble on. At the moment there are ongoing discussions about the Irish backstop arrangement and the current proposal is to keep the UK in a single customs area during the Brexit transition period which could be extended for another year.

Prime Minister Theresa May has suggested that the deal between the UK and the European Union is practically 95% done but with the Irish border issue far from being agreed I don’t think we’ll see the Brexit talks concluded in the near future and this could continue to weigh heavily on GBPAUD exchange rates.

If we turn the focus towards what is happening down under the Australian Dollar has been weakening against the US Dollar but remained fairly robust against the Pound highlighting the problems faced for Sterling by the ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

Property prices in both Sydney and Melbourne have started to show signs of falling with Deloitte claiming that some house prices are falling by as much as AUD$1,000 in a week.

Prices have been previously going up very quickly and with demand starting to wane this has caused the market to try and correct itself. Historically low interest rates have encouraged large amounts of borrowing and this has fueled the property market and with foreign investors being discouraged owing to previous reforms this has caused the housing market to come under pressure.

In my opinion the Australian economy will come under further pressure in the months ahead as we have also seen Chinese GDP at its lowest point in 10 years but until we get some positive news surrounding what is happening to the UK with its relationship with the European Union I expect Sterling’s advances to be relatively limited.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when transferring Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 and I’m confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with various contract types that may suit your need.

For further information feel free to contact me directly.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Huge month ahead for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar with Brexit talks

The Australian Dollar has started to fight back against the Pound especially towards the end of the week in advance of this weekend’s Tory party conference.

During the last few weeks rumours are circulating that some Tory members are looking for a change in leadership especially the Pro-Remainers in the party.

Theresa May claimed last week during her televised statement that under her leadership there will be no second referendum so some in the party think that their only option is to remove her from power. However, this would be deemed as very dangerous politically and would open the door to Labour.

It will be interesting to see how the Tory conference goes this weekend as if there is more division in the party then I think we could see Sterling exchange rates lower as we begin the week.

There are two other huge stumbling blocks ahead for the Pound with the EU summit due to be held on October 18th. Just over a week ago the Chequers plan was rejected by the European leaders and as yet no other alternative has been offered so currently we are at a stalemate with the discussions which does not bode well for the Pound at the moment.

Depending on how the talks go in the next three weeks the EU may also hold an emergency Brexit meeting in November to try and get a deal agreed between both sides so there is a huge amount of volatility coming in the next few weeks so be prepared for any eventuality.

As we saw in June 2016 when the Brexit vote came out we saw huge losses for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar so I think we could see some huge movements if we do manage to get a deal agreed later this month.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as help you with various contract types all with the aim of saving you money.

Please email me with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound collapses against the Australian Dollar after Brexit talks stall (Tom Holian)

The Pound collapsed against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar after a bad week politically for the UK.

The Pound began to drop on Thursday when the unofficial EU meeting didn’t go very well with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan put out by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She criticised the EU and said if they reject her plan then they will need to come up with a plan of their own. Clearly there is no plan coming at least in the short term and this uncertainty caused problems for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Even further losses came on Friday afternoon as Theresa May gave a statement on Brexit and confirmed that a second referendum will not be coming and that she is focused on making sure democracy will prevail. The markets weakened during the statement with GBAUD exchange rates falling below 1.80 after trading above this resistance level for a while.

The Australian Dollar was also given a boost after the Trump administration confirmed that they will not be putting tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

The Aussie Dollar has been under pressure recently caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this will often have a negative effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. However, as Trump has not included them in his latest weight throwing exercise this has helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen against Sterling.

The Australian economy had a further boost recently with credit ratings agency S&P upgrading Australia’s credit outlook from negative to stable for the first time in two years.

With the Australian trade surplus improving as well as record growth in employment this has been another reason for the fightback by the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As we go into next week the GBAUD is likely to be heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga so make sure you’re well prepared for some volatility ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make or would like further information as to what is happening to GBPAUD rates then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Selling falls against the Australian Dollar after chances of a No-Brexit deal increase

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate has fallen below the key 1.80 mark during today’s trading session. This is key as the GBP/AUD pair had previously consolidated above this level and traded as high as 1.85 before the recent fall which has taken place because of the Brexit related comments this week.

At the time of writing the EU leaders are all currently in Austria, as they have been for the past couple of days as there is an informal summit taking place. Whilst there have been some positive comments regarding Brexit recently the summit has all together been a negative for the Pound as the currency has fallen dramatically against a range of currency pairs, with the fall against AUD being quite dramatic in terms of recent price movement which has mostly been thin.

Much of the talk revolves around the Chequers deal, and whether or not it will be both the preferred approach of the UK government and also accepted by the EU members, which at the moment is looking unlikely especially after a speech by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May today.

There is a bank holiday down under on Monday of next week, as it’s the Queen’s birthday and there aren’t any major releases until next Friday which means I’m expecting the Pound to be the main driver of currency fluctuation between the GBP/AUD pair.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Could we see further gains for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar this week? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has continued to improve against the Australian Dollar creating the best level to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds since April which is a 5 month high.

The Australian Dollar has weakened owing to the ongoing threat of a trade war between the US and China and as China is such a large trading partner with Australia this is causing the Australian Dollar to weaken.

We also saw an improvement for Sterling during yesterday afternoon’s trading session following the comments made by EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier who suggested that a deal could be in place in the next 6-8 weeks.

However, as we saw what happened last week with GBPAUD exchange rates the comments sent the market up quickly but it then fell shortly afterwards.

Ultimately, the rate to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling is likely to be dominated in the next few weeks with the ongoing Brexit talks but the Trade Wars between the US and China are also causing big problems for the Australian Dollar.

Indeed, the US has threatened to impose further tariffs and have claimed they are ready to go and with China suggesting they may try to match the tariffs Dollar for Dollar this is clearly a big problem for global markets.

We have already seen the Pound make some huge gains vs a number of different commodity based currencies including the New Zealand Dollar and the South African Rand and with the Pound hitting 1.83+ against the AUD yesterday I think we could see further gains coming in the short term.

We have a big day coming on Thursday with Australia releasing the latest set of unemployment down under and this will be followed at midday by the latest Bank of England interest rate decision so be prepared for a volatile end to the week if you’re in the process of making a transfer involving Australian Dollars.

If you would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Will the Australian Dollar continue to weaken, and what’s causing the weakness?

The Aussie Dollar is under pressure at the moment, with the currency hitting a 20-month low against the US Dollar earlier this week which has hit the headlines. This most recent drop off was spurred by a number of major Australian banks such as Westpac, Suncorp and Adelaide Bank have all increased their mortgage lending rates.

The ongoing saga surrounding the US and Canada’s North American Free Trade Agreement has also weighed on the Aussie Dollars value as sentiment surrounding the emerging markets has waned, after the talks between the US and Canada didn’t result in an agreement. The South African rand has also lost a lot of value recently for similar reasons.

No interest rate hikes are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia until at least this time next year, and with US interest rates now higher than Australia’s the currency has lost a competitive edge which is another reason for the AUD weakening.

Moving forward I’m expecting to see the issues between the US and Canada as well as the issues with China to continue to weigh on the Aussie Dollar’s value. This is because of the Australian economies dependence on a strong global economy especially as the country becomes more service based.

This week there are a few further data releases that will provide us with an overview of the Australian economy, as trade Balance figures are released tomorrow and Home Loan Figures will be released on Friday.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.