Tag Archives: buying australian dollars

Australian dollar forecast: Will the RBA cut their interest rates again?

The Australian dollar is weaker this week, following the news that Australian employment data, whilst reasonably positive, was not inspiring enough to majorly turn the tide on the Australian currency. With the outlook on interest rates shifting following very poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which recently came in at a decade low, the Reserve Bank of Australia might well be looking to cut their interest rates once again ahead.

I am concerned about some of the more global issues that will influence the Australian dollar too, the prospect of the trade wars deteriorating ahead could be a major concern for the currency. It is likely that the Australian dollar will suffer as investors are fearful over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, this weekend’s G20 Summit will be key in determining what happens next.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar, making some careful plans in advance is usually a good idea to try and help mitigate the uncertainty. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar will often rise and fall on the waning attitudes to global risk and trade. Donald Trump is a real wildcard here and his constant to and fro on the trade wars, is harming sentiment.

Next week, is a series of important economic releases with the Governor of the RBA, looking to make a speech plus the latest RBA Meeting Minutes. In providing information on what lies ahead, we will learn of the latest news and developments we might expect. I predict that Lowe will have to keep the door open to further cuts and this could see the Aussie weaker.

Looking at the general trend and trajectory on the trade wars, I think the Australian dollar could lose more ground ahead. Expectations are mixed over what to expect this weekend, any signs of agreement between Trump and China, could provide some shorter-term relief for the Aussie. However, I do feel that any improvement in sentiment will only be short-term, and there will continue to be a longer net negative concern from the trade wars which will affect the Australian dollar.

Thank you for reading my post and should you have a Australian currency transfers that you wish for assistance with, I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategy to assist with the best rates and timings.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the RBA cut interest rates and the impact on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has really been struggling against the Australian Dollar in recent weeks owing to the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK.

The Pound is now trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar in a few weeks and I think we could see further losses ahead for Sterling exchange rates.

Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again meet to decide the future of monetary policy down under.

With the Australian economy coming under more and more pressure recently there is a strong likelihood that we’ll see a cut in interest rates on Tuesday morning.

As this is widely anticipated it may not have the impact on exchange rates that you may think so if you’re banking on a big movement for GBPAUD exchange rates it may not happen.

The main thing to look out for will be the statement from the RBA as if they hint that there are more interest rate cuts planned for the future then this could weaken the Australian Dollar so make sure you pay close attention to the announcement.

Indeed, some analysts think that the RBA should cut interest rates by 0.5% but I think that would be too aggressive for the time being.

We also have the release of Australian retail sales due out on Tuesday morning. Retail sales are a good indicator as to the health of an economy so any further signs of a slowdown will provide the RBA with further justification to cut interest rates.

Then on Wednesday we have another big data release for Australia with the latest GDP data for the first quarter. The expectations are for growth of 2.5% which would be an improvement from the previous quarter of 2.3% for year on year so we could see some volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates during the middle part of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can also help you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian 

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

May’s future in doubt (Daniel Johnson)

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast

Sterling has suffered of late due to the current situation on Brexit, Brexit being one of the key drivers on GBP/AUD. We recently saw a spike up to 1.88 following what was deemed to be positive news on Brexit. May’s talks with Corbyn over a deal that could be mutually acceptable from both Labour and the Conservatives caused the Spike. I believed the gains for Sterling would be short lived as I had little faith the talks between May and Corbyn would result in a deal that would pass through the House of Commons. This proved to be true.

I believe Sterling could be in for further losses as if Farage’s becomes the UK’s representative in the bloc, it would show a huge power shift away for m the usual top contenders, creating further political uncertainty. Many believe if he does prove to be  successful this could be the final nail in the coffin for May and she will be forced to step down, she has proved extremely resilient up to this point however.

May made a speech yesterday and she stated the House of Commons vote on her deal may now be delayed from the first week of June. This was not taken well and has seen her unpopularity grow. The thoughts in many of the voters minds is no doubt that if her deal fails to be passed she will resign.

I think the vote is destined to fail when it takes place, this may be already factored into GBP/AUD to some extent as the market moves on rumour as well as fact, but I think this could also cause the Pound to lose value. The usual market reaction if a leader of a Country steps down or is ousted is that the currency in question would weaken, however in this situation we could see the opposite as anew Tory party leader may be deemed to have a better a chance of sorting out this Brexit mess.

The Aussie has had it’s own trouble, Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s goods and services and any decline in Chinese growth will impact the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar. The escalation in the US/China trade war is causing investors to move away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD for safe haven investments.

There is also the probability of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month, so despite the potential for further Sterling gains it may be wise to move before the decision if you are selling the Aussie.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

Australian election to set the tone for Pound vs Australian Dollar rates

Australian Election this weekend

We are now just days away from the next Australian election due to be held this weekend.  According to a number of polls the voting is very close but current Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be the preferred person to continue to lead the country.

There have been a number of elections during the last ten years and this has often caused the Australian Dollar to suffer as a result owing to the uncertainty during an election campaign.

At the moment the voting appears to be very close with hours to go before the polling stations close.

Scott Morrison is the current Prime Minister and if he stays he will have a long term in power owing to a recent change in legislation.

However, at the time of writing Nine’s exit poll has predicted that Bill Shorten will win with a a 2.4% swing towards the Labor party.

If Labor do win then this could have a big impact on the Australian economy.

In previous weeks a number of leading businessmen have spoken out against a Labor government as they believe this could lead to negatively impact upon the Australian economy.

With 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Australian Senate expect to see a lot of volatility for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar over the next few days.

Therefore, it will be very important to see who wins over the next day as this could have a big impact on the value for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar. Therefore, if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars then pay close attention to this weekend’s election news.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling starts the week strongly with GBP/AUD trading north of 1.86, will GBP/AUD test it’s annual highs again soon?

The Pound has begun the week on the front foot this morning, with GBP exchange rates generally up across the board of major currency pairs. GBP/AUD is up by over half a percent, with the pair now trading around the 1.8650 level which is around 2-cents from the best levels of the past year.

There could be further price changes this week, especially towards the end of the week as Australians will be going to the polls to vote on the Australian Federal election. There has been a lack on continued leadership down under as many of our readers that follow Australian politics will be aware of. Over the past 12-years there have been 6 different prime ministers and the current leader, Scott Morrison of the Liberal-National coalition is currently polled in 2nd place. Another change of leadership could cause weakness for the Aussie Dollar, as Morrison has only been in power since August of last year so another change could increase uncertainty for the Australian economy moving forward.

There will also be inflation data released out of Australia towards the end of the week, and a weak reading could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates at their next opportunity, so again this is another potential market mover.

The main influence on the Pound’s value is likely to be the cross party Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour leaders. We’ve seen updates on the talks move GBP exchange rates in both directions recently, so it’s worth being aware of if you’re planning on making a GBP transfer soon.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar boosted as RBA chooses not to hike interest rates just yet!

The currency markets were dealt a surprise in the early hours of this morning, as the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to hold interest rates at the current record low levels of 1.50%.

Over recent months inflation levels have stagnated, prompting a number of economists to predict another cut in interest rates which last week helped push the Pound to Australian Dollar up up to within 1-cent from the annual high, which is 1.8881. Despite keeping rates on hold the RBA did has kept the door open regarding rate hikes, and there will now large emphasis on employment figures along with inflation levels which could impact AUD exchange rates moving forward.

Retail sales is another area of the market that I expect to be followed closely, as retailers had their worst quarter in 7-years in the first quarter of this year.

Markets will continue to watch the Pound closely, and as we saw towards the end of last week the markets are sensitive towards Brexit related updates as this topic is the main driver for GBP exchange rates at the moment. On Friday GBP/EUR amongst other major pairs hit a 1-month high when the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn of Labour, stated that parliament must break the deadlock over Brexit and ‘get a deal done’ to exit the EU.

Talks have been ongoing behind the scenes regarding a deal, so moving forward I expect this matter to have an influence on the Pound’s value along with an speculation regarding PM May’s position.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound Sterling close to 3 year highs against the Australian Dollar

The Pound is now trading at close to its best level to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling since June 2016 when the Brexit vote took place.

The Pound has increased in value against the Australian Dollar at the end of the week as the cross party talks between the Labour party and the Tories appear to be making progress.

Following the dismal local election results earlier in the week senior Tory members are urging the party to take things further and deliver Brexit.

Indeed, Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that the public wanted ‘to see the issue of Brexit resolved.’

With Theresa May insisting that the cross-party talks are concluded by next week this could see Brexit get closer to being delivered than some may expect.

I am still doubtful that Brexit will take place as even if the talks between the two parties improve then they will still have to get it through the House of Commons who have so far shown little interest in approving the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

Turning the focus back towards the Australian Dollar I think we could potentially see the Pound hit 1.90 and above this month as there are a number of major events taking place during May.

We start on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting to announce their latest interest rate decision. The rumours have been increasing recently that the RBA may be looking to cut interest rates and even if a rate cut does not take place on Tuesday I think that the RBA may adopt a relatively dovish tone and suggest that they are gearing up to cut rates.

One of the only reasons why I think an interest rate cut may not happen next week is that Australia is due to go to the polls this month on 18th May.

Generally speaking when an election takes place this often results in uncertainty for the currency involved and this is why I think we could see the Pound increasing against the Australian Dollar in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank and have a currency transfer to make involving Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/AUD hits 1.85 as markets await a busy Thursday for UK data releases

The Pound’s value is rising across the board of major currency pairs today, with GBP/AUD hitting levels as high as 1.8527 at its highest level so far today.

Sterling had begun the day positively and it was boosted around 9.30am this morning as Manufacturing data came out slightly better than expected, with the forward looking Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figure showing a positive reading of 53.1 meaning that there is an improving outlook within the industry at the moment.

With the chances of an imminent Brexit with no trade deals in place now a lot less likely due to the extension the UK has been given, sentiment surrounding the economy is picking up and not only has this been reflected within today’s manufacturing data release, but also within the property market which saw another slight gain this month and a small year on year improvement of 0.9% despite the uncertainty.

Tomorrow there will be a raft of economic data released around lunchtime by the Bank of England as the BoE’s interest rate decision along with comments afterwards from BoE governor Mark Carney providing an insight into the monetary policy plans moving forward.

Whilst the Pound has been climbing, the Australian Dollar hasn’t been helped as some disappointing data out of China for April has softened the Aussie Dollars value across the board. Those of our readers hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should be aware of this due to the interconnectedness of the two economies.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Pound vs Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of inflation and an election

The Australian Dollar has been performing a little better as of late vs the Pound however things could be different over the next few days when Australia releases its latest inflation data.

Expectations are for a fall from 1.8% to 1.5% and if this happens I think we could see some Australian Dollar weakness ahead.

The reason is that if inflation falls this could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates in the near future.

The Australian economy has been under pressure during the last few months for a number of reasons with one big factor that of the housing market.

Property prices across the country have fallen and a central bank will often look at cutting interest rates in order to give the sector a boost.

The impact of an interest rate cut usually results in weakness for the currency involved and that is why I think the Pound could increase on Wednesday when the RBA announces the latest inflation data.

However, although I think the Australian Dollar could weaken I do think that the RBA will keep rates the same over the next few weeks as we are just over a month away from the next elections in Australia and a central bank will often keep monetary policy the same as changing it can result in a lot of uncertainty for markets especially when an election takes place.

The Labour party down under is gaining more votes and this is not popular for big business as the result would likely to be increased taxation and this could be another reason why the Australian Dollar could suffer if the party wins next month.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound against the Australian Dollar falls as RBA may not cut interest rates

The Australian Dollar has seen some signs of strength recently as it appears as though the Reserve Bank of Australia may not be looking at cutting interest rates as soon as previously expected.

The Trade Wars between the US and China also appear to be getting closer to a resolution and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this has helped the value of the Australian Dollar.

Australian is also a huge producer of Iron Ore and its main export market is China. Australia has approximately 65% of the global market and any price change in the value of the commodity will often affect the value of the Australian Dollar.

Chinese demand has started to increase for the commodity and rumours are increasing that many Iron ore mines in Brazil are due to be closing. This means that global supply will reduce which will in theory increase demand for Australian iron ore.

However, although the news is good concerning the news above, the risk going forward is that of the Australian election which is due to take place in just over a month’s time.

Labour are doing well in the polls so a change in leadership could see the Australian Dollar come under pressure once again so make sure you keep a close eye out on the election campaign as this is likely to have a big impact on the Pound against the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing uncertainty caused by Brexit has caused the Pound to weaken marginally against a number of different currencies which is good news for anyone looking to buy Pounds at the moment as GBPAUD exchange rates are at the lowest rate in two months.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked in the currency industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers  I’m confident that I can save you money compared to using your bank for the transfer of Australian Dollars.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk