Tag Archives: china

Australian Dollar loses a little ground with economic data miss and Chinese debt still a concern for the RBA

The Australian Dollar lost a little ground in trading yesterday following poor construction data and concerns from the RBA over Chinese debt and the two together led to a drop in demand for AUD and a slight drop in value to go with it.

Construction work was 18% down on figures over the same period last year and only rose 0.2% for the quarter compared to expectations of 1.3% which is quite a big miss.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe remained firm that the RBA would not be in any rush to make adjustments to monetary policy anytime soon and he also commented that a clear build up of debt and bad loans in China is also a considerable risk to the Australian economy. He cited that there have been similar situations in the past that have led to economic slowdown or a full blown financial crisis.

China at present is a large importer of Australian food and service and Chinese tourists currently account for 25% of all tourist Dollars spent in Australian currently, not to mention China being a large importer of Australian iron ore and coal.

This news unnerved investors who are already getting mixed news regarding Donald Trump and trade tariffs  and are already looking to come out of the Australian Dollar due to stagnant interest rates where other seemingly more stable economies around the world (for example the United States) are making their moves and raising interest rates, even now to a point where the USD is a more attractive currency than the AUD as it offers a better return for investors money.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving Australian Dollars and you would like to be kept up to speed with any rate changes then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

 

Chinese data gives the Australian Dollar strength to round off the week

We have seen a little strength for the Australian Dollar as we head to the end of the trading week, following better than expected Chinese economic data released overnight.

Trade surplus in China was a lot better than expected coming in way above expectations of $179bn at a level of $326.1bn, this was seen as good news for the Chinese economy and with China being a huge trading partner for Australia any good news from China can lead to Australian Dollar strength.

We have very little in terms of economic data to come out as the weekend nears, so all eyes will now more than likely be on the RBA interest rate decision meeting minutes which are due out next week. This will show what was discussed at the last Australian interest rate decision and my feelings are that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness after this comes out.

Philip Lowe commented last week that he does not expect to see a rate hike being a possibility for a while, and with the level of household debt and poor wage growth still being a concern for the RBA I believe this will be echoed in the meeting minutes and that will drop the value of the Australian Dollar.

An interest rate hike is usually seen as a positive for a currency and with other major economies currently seeing rate rises we are starting to see the Australian Dollar get left behind. As an example, the interest rate in the U.S is now higher than Australia’s and with the U.S Dollar being seen as a less risky option yet with a more attractive return we are seeing a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar as a result of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

AUD makes slight gains against most majors – Plenty for the market to get stuck into this week

Tomorrow morning sees the release of Australian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2017. Expectations from major analysts is that we may have seen a slight slip from 0.6% to 0.5% Month on month so this could give the Australian Dollar a poor start to the trading day.

Earlier in the week we had the RBA interest rate decision and rate statement which didn’t throw up any major surprises, wage growth is still a concern for the RBA which will more than likely hold them back from raising interest rates and this could weigh on the Australian Dollar.

Thursday morning brings import and export data, along with Trade balance figures from Australia. Chinese data is also due out at the same time and due to the huge volume of exports from Australia to China this can also have an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too.

on Friday we have very little in terms of data from Australia but we do have have Chinese inflation data, expectations are for a slight rise for inflation figures over in China which may give a slight to the Australian Dollar too.

My personal opinion is still that the Australian Dollar may not have a good few months coming up, with little movements in interest rates coming up and other central banks poised to make their move and hike rates in the near future there could be a period of weakness ahead. On top of this there is plenty of global uncertainty out there both with the global economy and numerous areas politically.

Any global uncertainty can also weaken the Australian Dollar as it is perceived as a riskier currency therefore can drop in value when uncertainty is rife.

if you need to carry out an exchange involving buying or selling Australian Dollars in the near future, and you would like to achieve the very best rates on top of the highest level of customer service then feel free to get in touch with me directly. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you personally.

Australian Dollar continues to make gains – Will this continue? (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar have a fantastic week against all major currencies following on from both positive growth figures in China and extremely hawkish comments from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) that they would be more than happy to see the cash rate in Australia make its way up to 3.5%.

Any interest rate change or even just the hint of it happening can move the value of a currency, and considering that the RBA have suggested a number of hikes with these comments we have seen the Australian Dollar soar from strength to strength. When an interest rate is raised it does make that currency more attractive to investors and with the rule of supply and demand if more people are interested in buying Australian Dollars then the price will rise.

Tomorrow morning (or overnight tonight for our readers in the U.K) we have Australian unemployment figures and this has the potential to buck the trend. Expectations are for unemployment to have increased from 5.5% to 5.6% an d should this be true then this may buck the trend for the time being.

Personally  I feel this is a prime opportunity at present to sell Australian Dollars as I still do not fully believe the Australian economy is such great shape that the RBA are hinting that it is, also, although China has recently shown good data I still feel there are plenty of issues still to resolve with the huge level of borrowing happening over there.

If you have Australian Dollars to sell or indeed buy then you need to have a proactive and experienced currency broker on your side in turbulent times such as these. If you feel I could be beneficial to you then I would be more than happy to help you. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling 0044 1494 725353 and asking for me and I will be more than happy to explain the process to you and help you put together a plan of action.

Australian Dollar gains strength after solid trade data overnight (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained ground against most major currencies during the Asian session due to seeing Australia’s trade balance rise more than expected during May.

Exports were up, which for a export driven country is seen as a real positive for the Australian economy and indeed the Australian Dollar. We only really saw small gains for the Australian Dollar off the back of this, but it was welcomed by those with Australian Dollars to sell in the near future, after seeing AUD exchange rates drop off earlier in the week following the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.

The RBA had set a more dovish tone than had been expected, both on the economy going forward and on future fiscal policy changes, this led to Australian Dollar weakness immediately after the release and a little further weakness during trading yesterday.

Rest of the week for AUD exchange rates?

Tomorrow we have a little economic data out from China and also Non-Farm Payroll data out from the U.S.

Chinese data can impact the Australian Dollar quite heavily due to the volume exported over there and the Non-Farm data can affect all major currencies as it will alter global attitude to risk. Currently, the Australian Dollar is perceived as a riskier currency so any slight alterations in risk sentiment worldwide can impact Australian Dollar exchange rates.

With so much going on in the market at present, it is extremely important that if you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then it is imperative that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side. Here at Australian Dollar Forecast we can not only help you with up to the minute market data but we can also work with you to help you time your transfer and to get the best rate when you do carry it out.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this website should you wish to receive more information on our services and I will be more than happy to get back to you as soon as I can. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

Australian Dollar getting shaky due to a number of factors (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar is starting to feel the pinch a little in recent trading as a number of factors are leading to a little Australian Dollar weakness.

This week so far has already given us the news that China has had a credit rating downgrade by rating’s agency Moody’s due to concerns of the spiralling debt situation over there. On top of this, investors are rushing to second guess when we will see the next interest rate change over in America and this will also be of key importance to the Australian Dollar too.

Why the rate change is so important is due to where investors will seek to hold their funds. At present Australia presents a solid interest rate compared to many other parts of the world however the U.S are slowly catching up and this is when risk perception will come into play. The closer the U.S interest rate gets to the Australian interest rate you will start to see a flow of money leaving the Australian Dollar and moving into the U.S Dollar as investors will feel that the U.S is a more stable and safer bet for their funds, so they will feel more comfortable folding funds in USD if interest rates are fairly close if not the same.

Regarding the issue with China, any bad news from China tends to be negative for the Australian Dollar as Australia exports so many goods to China so it will have an impact on the Australian economy eventually. Rising debt in China has been a concern for a long time and personally I would not be overly surprised to see Chinese debt hit the headlines on a larger scale again soon.

With this in mind we may see a tricky period for the Australian Dollar come up so there could be some great opportunities for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the near future.

If you are looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars and you would like my assistance then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you. Not only can the company I work for offer highly competitive rates of exchange but we are also extremely proactive in helping our clients with the timing of their exchange. If you feel you are not getting this assistance with your current broker or indeed your bank then feel free to email me directly and I will be more than happy to get in touch.

 

GBP/AUD Rates Remain Range-Bound – Where Next for the Pound? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained range-bound over recent days, with the Pound struggling to break through 1.65.

The AUD has found plenty of support around this level, despite the Pound gaining a foothold against most of the major currencies since last week’s historic events.

It seems as though investors are still airing on the side of caution when it comes to the UK economy and its prospective future prosperity following the start of our separation form the EU.

It’s a strange time in the currency markets however, as investors and clients alike must start to look forward following the triggering of Article 50 last week. Many clients are asking me how the Pound will react over the coming weeks and I still feel that any clients holding Sterling should be looking for short-term market opportunities whilst the current uncertainty remains.

Its seems as though so much talk and focus was centred around the UK’s Brexit since the unexpected referendum result last June, that people almost forget that there was an active market prior to this point. It does feel like there is something of anti-climax about the whole situation but I’m convinced that talk of Brexit and the negotiations between the UK government and EU regarding terms of the separation will still fill column inches and dominate headlines for months, if not years to come.

However, we also need to move ourselves away from the topic to some extent, as the markets will start to look at other factors and it be that economic data (which is predominantly what drives the currency markets) will start to hold more weight again as we move forward.

Personally, I still feel that the investor confidence in the UK economy is not strong enough to sustainably push GBP/AUD rates towards 1.70. However, any positive developments regarding the UK’s separation and any deals still in place with the EU will probably benefit those clients holding Sterling and inadvertently weaken the AUD as a result.

The AUD has performed well against the Pound for some time but with China’s demand for their huge reserves of iron ore slowing and high labour costs in the mining industry putting pressure on the Australian economy, now could be the time to sell any AUD positions.

Client should to take advantage of what are extremely attractive levels, especially when you consider the history on the pair and not gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

What to expect for Australian dollar buyers and sellers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks the Australian dollar has been taking a hit and many economists believe this trend will continue throughout 2017.

At present investment remains in Australia as interest rates remain high. However with forecasters suggesting that inflation will remain low this could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates early next year, which would lead to an Australia dollar sell off.

Couple this with the US Federal Reserve deciding to hike interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% Wednesday evening, throughout next year I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors move out of the Australian dollar and into the US dollar.

Another factor this could lead to further Australian dollar weakness next year is the slowdown in China. Forecasters believe growth will slow to 6.4% down from 6.7% in 2016.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with the currency pair (AUDGBP, AUDEUR, AUDUSD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

Australian Dollar continues to remain strong as RBA throws up no surprises (Daniel Wright)

The RBA didn’t throw up any big surprises to the markets in trading today as interest rates were left on hold and there were less signs than usual of any future interest rate reductions… Former Governor Glenn Stevens did seem to like leaving a few hints out there for future policy just to keep tongues wagging between investors.

The Australian Dollar has surged against the Pound in recent months following the referendum, the announcement by Theresa May on Sunday that the U.K would be progressing with Article 50 by the end of March and just the general way that the Pound has fallen out of fashion  over the past few months.

With this in mind my personal view is that this is a fantastic time to be exchanging Australian Dollars into Sterling and the key in these scenarios is not to get too greedy as there are plenty of issues out there that may turn the tide back.

All you need to do is look at the issues in China, the potential of an interest rate hike in the U.S and the potential that once his feet are under the table that new Governor Philip Lowe may have larger plans than he has hinted at and we could well see this trend turn around fairly quickly.

I personally have assisted hundreds of clients bring Australian Dollars back into Sterling over the past couple of months and would be more than happy to help you too. Not only can we achieve much better rates of exchange than the banks but it is rare we cannot significantly better other well known brokerages too so it is well worth getting in touch with me if you find this website useful.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) creator of this site 5 years ago on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.