Tag Archives: china

Australian Dollar still weakens as ASX falls due to U.S-China trade tensions

The Australian Dollar has had another fairly tough week against most major currencies, with the main reason being put down once again to the growing trade tensions between the U.S and China that do not appear to be going away soon.

These tensions are also weighing on the Australian share market, with commodities prices losing value the higher the tensions are.

U.S proposals are still not being taken well by China and the threats from China to take countermeasures are merely adding to global investors steering away from the perceived risk of the Australian Dollar and moving into safer haven currencies.

I have personally felt that the Australian Dollar would be in for a tough time for a while now, it is still managing to hold it’s ground at the moment with everything being taken into account, but I do feel that the issues with China will continue to weigh on the value of the Australian Dollar, not just the trade wars but also the growing levels of debt in the Chinese economy which have been a problem for quite some time now.

As many regular readers will know Chinese issues can impact the value of the Australian Dollar due to the sheer volume of goods and services that China import from Australia and also the huge amount of tourism that China provides to the Australian economy too.

All eyes will continue to be on Trump’s next move and also the U.S data release which is Non-Farm payroll data due out during trading on Friday. This release can impact global attitude to risk therefore can impact the value of the Australian Dollar too.

If you have a transaction to carry out involving exchanging Australian Dollars into any major currency, or buying Australian Dollars with any major currency then it would be well worth getting in touch with me directly.

You can contact me, Daniel Wright on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information on how I can help you and I will be happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar weakens following RBA meeting minutes

Tuesday saw a fairly poor performance by the Australian Dollar against most major currencies, following the release of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision.

The minutes will basically show what was discussed at the meeting and how the RBA came to various decisions and i’m afraid the tone was fairly negative when reading through discussions and future fiscal plans.

The main areas of concern are the on-going trade wars between Donald Trump and China, as many regular readers of this site will be aware Chinese economic performance is fairly crucial to the performance of the Australian economy and the Australian Dollar. Not only do China import a huge amount of goods from Australia but they Chinese tourists make up a fairly large percentage of tourism in Australia.

The large sum of household debt at present in Australia is also of great concern to the RBA. Household debt is currently at worrying levels and what this means is that until this starts to drop back off it will be very difficult for the RBA to raise interest rates, and they did put a nod to this in the minutes.

Should they raise rates then we may see a large quantity of households go into default in Australia which would only escalate the economic problems even further, it does now appear that unless things improve then will not be seeing an interest rate hike for the foreseeable future which will more than likely hold the Australian Dollar back against other major currencies.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency and with other areas around the globe slowly raising their interest rates the Australian Dollar is in danger of being left behind.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like assistance with developing your strategy then you are more than welcome to get in touch. I have been helping clients move money internationally for over a decade and will be more than happy to have a chat with you about your specific needs.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will get in touch with you personally.

Australian Dollar still open to risk sell off – Italy key at present and Chinese data rounds off the week

Italian politics have been one of the surprise movers for Australian Dollar exchange rates so far this week, with news of a breakdown in talks to form a Government coming out earlier in the week this has led to a rise in political instability which can impact investors and speculators attitude to risk.

With the Australian Dollar being deemed as a ‘riskier’ currency it is open to the elements of global political and economic issues, so situations like the one in Italy at present or even the on-going situation between Donald Trump and North Korea can have quite an impact on the value of the currency.

In times of uncertainty the Australian Dollar tends to weaken and when matters are settled you can see the Australian Dollar get a little stronger.

As regular readers  of the site will be aware it does not look like we will be seeing a rise in interest rates for Australia in the coming months which may keep the Australian Dollar out of fashion for a little while, especially when you note that the Federal Reserve over in the U.S are consistently raising rates and have been for a while now.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for a currency as it makes that currency more attractive to investors and a cut in interest rates can been seen as negative, so with the action seen from the U.S over the last year or so we are witnessing a flurry of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar which is perceived as a safer currency and now offers a better return as well.

We have minimal economic data out for Australia this week but we do have Chinese manufacturing tomorrow and Friday which may also impact the Australian Dollar as the week nears an end.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or even months ahead and you would like my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you personally. Not only can we better rates of other brokerages, well known apps or online platforms but we go the extra mile and offer assistance with both the timing of your transfer and getting the money where it needs to be safely and securely.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you with further information on our services.

Australian Dollar loses a little ground with economic data miss and Chinese debt still a concern for the RBA

The Australian Dollar lost a little ground in trading yesterday following poor construction data and concerns from the RBA over Chinese debt and the two together led to a drop in demand for AUD and a slight drop in value to go with it.

Construction work was 18% down on figures over the same period last year and only rose 0.2% for the quarter compared to expectations of 1.3% which is quite a big miss.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe remained firm that the RBA would not be in any rush to make adjustments to monetary policy anytime soon and he also commented that a clear build up of debt and bad loans in China is also a considerable risk to the Australian economy. He cited that there have been similar situations in the past that have led to economic slowdown or a full blown financial crisis.

China at present is a large importer of Australian food and service and Chinese tourists currently account for 25% of all tourist Dollars spent in Australian currently, not to mention China being a large importer of Australian iron ore and coal.

This news unnerved investors who are already getting mixed news regarding Donald Trump and trade tariffs  and are already looking to come out of the Australian Dollar due to stagnant interest rates where other seemingly more stable economies around the world (for example the United States) are making their moves and raising interest rates, even now to a point where the USD is a more attractive currency than the AUD as it offers a better return for investors money.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving Australian Dollars and you would like to be kept up to speed with any rate changes then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

 

Chinese data gives the Australian Dollar strength to round off the week

We have seen a little strength for the Australian Dollar as we head to the end of the trading week, following better than expected Chinese economic data released overnight.

Trade surplus in China was a lot better than expected coming in way above expectations of $179bn at a level of $326.1bn, this was seen as good news for the Chinese economy and with China being a huge trading partner for Australia any good news from China can lead to Australian Dollar strength.

We have very little in terms of economic data to come out as the weekend nears, so all eyes will now more than likely be on the RBA interest rate decision meeting minutes which are due out next week. This will show what was discussed at the last Australian interest rate decision and my feelings are that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness after this comes out.

Philip Lowe commented last week that he does not expect to see a rate hike being a possibility for a while, and with the level of household debt and poor wage growth still being a concern for the RBA I believe this will be echoed in the meeting minutes and that will drop the value of the Australian Dollar.

An interest rate hike is usually seen as a positive for a currency and with other major economies currently seeing rate rises we are starting to see the Australian Dollar get left behind. As an example, the interest rate in the U.S is now higher than Australia’s and with the U.S Dollar being seen as a less risky option yet with a more attractive return we are seeing a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar as a result of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

AUD makes slight gains against most majors – Plenty for the market to get stuck into this week

Tomorrow morning sees the release of Australian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2017. Expectations from major analysts is that we may have seen a slight slip from 0.6% to 0.5% Month on month so this could give the Australian Dollar a poor start to the trading day.

Earlier in the week we had the RBA interest rate decision and rate statement which didn’t throw up any major surprises, wage growth is still a concern for the RBA which will more than likely hold them back from raising interest rates and this could weigh on the Australian Dollar.

Thursday morning brings import and export data, along with Trade balance figures from Australia. Chinese data is also due out at the same time and due to the huge volume of exports from Australia to China this can also have an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too.

on Friday we have very little in terms of data from Australia but we do have have Chinese inflation data, expectations are for a slight rise for inflation figures over in China which may give a slight to the Australian Dollar too.

My personal opinion is still that the Australian Dollar may not have a good few months coming up, with little movements in interest rates coming up and other central banks poised to make their move and hike rates in the near future there could be a period of weakness ahead. On top of this there is plenty of global uncertainty out there both with the global economy and numerous areas politically.

Any global uncertainty can also weaken the Australian Dollar as it is perceived as a riskier currency therefore can drop in value when uncertainty is rife.

if you need to carry out an exchange involving buying or selling Australian Dollars in the near future, and you would like to achieve the very best rates on top of the highest level of customer service then feel free to get in touch with me directly. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you personally.

Australian Dollar continues to make gains – Will this continue? (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar have a fantastic week against all major currencies following on from both positive growth figures in China and extremely hawkish comments from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) that they would be more than happy to see the cash rate in Australia make its way up to 3.5%.

Any interest rate change or even just the hint of it happening can move the value of a currency, and considering that the RBA have suggested a number of hikes with these comments we have seen the Australian Dollar soar from strength to strength. When an interest rate is raised it does make that currency more attractive to investors and with the rule of supply and demand if more people are interested in buying Australian Dollars then the price will rise.

Tomorrow morning (or overnight tonight for our readers in the U.K) we have Australian unemployment figures and this has the potential to buck the trend. Expectations are for unemployment to have increased from 5.5% to 5.6% an d should this be true then this may buck the trend for the time being.

Personally  I feel this is a prime opportunity at present to sell Australian Dollars as I still do not fully believe the Australian economy is such great shape that the RBA are hinting that it is, also, although China has recently shown good data I still feel there are plenty of issues still to resolve with the huge level of borrowing happening over there.

If you have Australian Dollars to sell or indeed buy then you need to have a proactive and experienced currency broker on your side in turbulent times such as these. If you feel I could be beneficial to you then I would be more than happy to help you. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling 0044 1494 725353 and asking for me and I will be more than happy to explain the process to you and help you put together a plan of action.

Australian Dollar gains strength after solid trade data overnight (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained ground against most major currencies during the Asian session due to seeing Australia’s trade balance rise more than expected during May.

Exports were up, which for a export driven country is seen as a real positive for the Australian economy and indeed the Australian Dollar. We only really saw small gains for the Australian Dollar off the back of this, but it was welcomed by those with Australian Dollars to sell in the near future, after seeing AUD exchange rates drop off earlier in the week following the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.

The RBA had set a more dovish tone than had been expected, both on the economy going forward and on future fiscal policy changes, this led to Australian Dollar weakness immediately after the release and a little further weakness during trading yesterday.

Rest of the week for AUD exchange rates?

Tomorrow we have a little economic data out from China and also Non-Farm Payroll data out from the U.S.

Chinese data can impact the Australian Dollar quite heavily due to the volume exported over there and the Non-Farm data can affect all major currencies as it will alter global attitude to risk. Currently, the Australian Dollar is perceived as a riskier currency so any slight alterations in risk sentiment worldwide can impact Australian Dollar exchange rates.

With so much going on in the market at present, it is extremely important that if you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then it is imperative that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side. Here at Australian Dollar Forecast we can not only help you with up to the minute market data but we can also work with you to help you time your transfer and to get the best rate when you do carry it out.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this website should you wish to receive more information on our services and I will be more than happy to get back to you as soon as I can. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

Australian Dollar getting shaky due to a number of factors (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar is starting to feel the pinch a little in recent trading as a number of factors are leading to a little Australian Dollar weakness.

This week so far has already given us the news that China has had a credit rating downgrade by rating’s agency Moody’s due to concerns of the spiralling debt situation over there. On top of this, investors are rushing to second guess when we will see the next interest rate change over in America and this will also be of key importance to the Australian Dollar too.

Why the rate change is so important is due to where investors will seek to hold their funds. At present Australia presents a solid interest rate compared to many other parts of the world however the U.S are slowly catching up and this is when risk perception will come into play. The closer the U.S interest rate gets to the Australian interest rate you will start to see a flow of money leaving the Australian Dollar and moving into the U.S Dollar as investors will feel that the U.S is a more stable and safer bet for their funds, so they will feel more comfortable folding funds in USD if interest rates are fairly close if not the same.

Regarding the issue with China, any bad news from China tends to be negative for the Australian Dollar as Australia exports so many goods to China so it will have an impact on the Australian economy eventually. Rising debt in China has been a concern for a long time and personally I would not be overly surprised to see Chinese debt hit the headlines on a larger scale again soon.

With this in mind we may see a tricky period for the Australian Dollar come up so there could be some great opportunities for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the near future.

If you are looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars and you would like my assistance then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you. Not only can the company I work for offer highly competitive rates of exchange but we are also extremely proactive in helping our clients with the timing of their exchange. If you feel you are not getting this assistance with your current broker or indeed your bank then feel free to email me directly and I will be more than happy to get in touch.