Tag Archives: currency transfer
Pound regains after yesterday’s losses against Aussie (Tom Holian)
The Pound hit new lows against the Australian Dollar yesterday morning following the release of UK manufacturing data. Official figures showed a drop of 1.5% in January compared to December. This again points the UK closer to recession as this is likely to have a negative impact on GDP. Next week Chancellor George Osborne introduces the Budget to so all eyes will be on next week to see if the Chancellor can stimulate some growth for the UK. If the economy shrinks this month we’ll be back in recession and only the second time in a triple dip recession. the only previous time was shortly after World War II so it goes to show how bad the situation is in the UK.
Rates for GBPAUD hit below 1.44 yesterday but this morning the over reaction seems to have settled with Sterling recovering by approx 0.5% against the Australian Dollar this morning. Later today the US published retail sales so if things are positive this could send the AUD back towards 1.44. if America is strong this tends to promote investor confidence which means investors are more likely to buy Australian Dollars with increased appetite.
In order to be kept updated with such movement and to take advantage of beneficial exchange rates please email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk with ‘CURRENCY SPIKE ALERT’ in the title of the email. Please also outline your particular currency requirement and I’m confident I can offer you a saving on your currency transfer. I look forward to hearing from you.
Australian Interest Rates Kept on Hold (Tom Holian)
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold for the second month in a row this morning but there are fears that the RBA may cut rates further this year. The official interest rate is currently at 3% and part of the reason for keeping them on hold was due to retail sales remaining strong this year. Typically interest rates are cut to encourage growth and spending but with Australians spending freely at the moment it is unlikely we;’ll see a rate cut next month either causing further AUD strength against USD, GBP & Euro.
One of the ongoing issues that faces the Australian economy is the imbalance between the rich mining industry and the rest of the country. With Chinese growth remaining strong this has kept the Aussie Dollar particular strong against Sterling with further strength expected. Indeed, one of the objectives for the RBA is to rebalance Australia’s growth between the mining economy and the rest of the country.
There are some predictions that the RBA may push rates back to 4% later this year if the economy stabilises in the meantime without adjusting the official cash rate. With GBPAUD rates hitting 1.4750 this afternoon it is difficult to see the Pound recover against the AUD in the short term. The current quarter for the UK will decide whether or not Britain will be ion a triple dip recession and if that comes true we could see further Sterling losses so if you’re considering an Australian Dollar currency transfer it may be worth considering doing so in the next few days.
Governor of the Bank of England talks tomorrow morning and typically over the last year when he talks it often has a negative impact on the Pound so if you have a currency transfer to make get in touch for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk and find out how as a specialist currency broker we may be able to help save you money
What will happen with UK GDP Figures this morning? (Tom Holian)
UK GDP are due out at 930am this morning and expectations are for a fall to -0.1%. If this is the case we could see Sterling exchange rates drop against the Australian Dollar as the market reacts to the data. GBPAUD exchange rates have dropped by 3% since the turn of the year and this could be a key catalyst for Sterling’s most recent falls against other major currencies. If GDP figures are negative this will point us in the direction of another recession for the UK. Officially we will need to see two consecutive quarters of negative growth in order to be in recession but at the moment things are looking this way.
With recent high street stores Comet, HMV & Jessops all having problems we could see unemployment rise in Q1 for the UK and with unemployment rising this is often detrimental to the Pound. However, if the GDP figures come out positively we could see Sterling improve. Personally, I think we’ll see the UK figures as negative.
If you are concerned about the data releases and how this may affect your exchange rate to buy Australian Dollars please do not hesitate to contact me to find out how we can save you money on your currency transfer compared to using your bank. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
GBPAUD rates improve as prospect of further rate cuts loom… Underlying Reasons for AUD strength remain
As highlighted in earlier posts the RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia has stated and left the door open for further rate cuts in the future. Historically an interest rate cut weakens the currency concerned and indeed the AUD has weakened against most currencies today. However the overall picture and reasons for AUD strength remain. If you are planning a transfer involving the Australian dollar in the future it looks highly likely the Aussie will continue to appreciate or at least retain much of the strength that has held it at close to record levels against most currencies.
This was shown quite clearly against sterling since in the last month the pound has generally found support against a basket a currencies as the immediate threat of more QE was removed. The GBPAUD rate however fell as the Aussie found favour among traders. This was a reaction to improved market sentiment regarding China. Chinese economic data is still strong and whereas in the summer many panicked thinking that China was about to suffer a hard landing, we have actually seen the data paint a slightly rosier picture.
I therefore feel that the Australian Dollar will continue to remain strong in the future despite fears over a Chinese slowdown and indeed concerns over further rate cuts. These two issues will however provide spikes for those buying Aussies to take advantage of.
For a full no obligation discussion of all the events surrounding your currency transfers you can contact me for information. Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk 01494 787 478
Australian Dollar News
The Aussie Dollar is in for a testing time over the next few weeks as we see the release of the Budget update which will publish news of spending cuts and measures put in place to claim AUD$4bn this year. International conditions have worsened recently owing to the slowdown in China and the instability in Europe which has seen a drop of AUD$21bn from projected tax revenues.
Since May the export of raw materials has dropped between 15%-35% for things like iron ore, thermal and coking coal which have been key drivers of the Australian economy in recent years. China’s economy has slowed to 7.4% for the seventh consecutive quarter and this has started to hit the mining economy which in turn could impact on the Australian growth prospects. I personally think we will see the Australian Dollar weaken in the long term (over 12 months) but in the meantime I would anticipate that the Aussie will head towards the lower end of the 1.50s if Europe continues to offer a bit more stability.
Owing to the recent problems within the Aussie economy this could provide more scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates at next month’s meeting. So far we have seen a total amount of 1.5% cuts over the last year so another cut is not out of the question. If you have a currency transfer to make and want to find out what is happening to the Australian Dollar continue to keep reading or alternatively ask me a question directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Australian Dollar Strength against Sterling AUD Forecast to remain strong against USD EUR & GBP
As commodity prices have started to rise again this has benefited the Australian Dollar which has continued to strengthen against other major currencies for the last two weeks. It has risen for most of this week against 16 of its major counterparts as price for iron ore which is Australia’s top export climbed to its highest level in 2 months. Risk appetite which is a key aspect to the strength of the Australian Dollar has been increased since the US jobless claims data fell to its lowest level since 2008.
Later today we see the release of the US Monthly Budget Statement this evening and the US Produce Price Index out this afternoon. If we see some positive figures we could see further strengthening for the AUD so if you have a trade to make to buy Australian Dollars it is worth contacting me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk to find out how we can save you money on your currency transfer and exchange rates. With a positive labour market in the US this is positive for the AUD and positive for risk appetite.
Bloomberg has produced a survey which suggests that traders see a 80% change that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will cut the interest rate to 2.75% or lower as early as February. The most recent cut for the Aussie interest rates occurred on 2nd October with interest rates at 3.25% at the moment.
When buying currency it is important to ensure you’re getting the best exchange rate so if you want to find out how to save money compared to organising a currency transfer through your bank whether it be in Australia or the UK please feel to contact me to find out how Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
