Tag Archives: currency transfer
Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast (Daniel Johnson)
Inflation & US/China trade war a concern for Australian Dollar Investors
The Pound has lost ground against the Australian Dollar of late which can be largely attributed to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit. Australia has had it’s own trouble however. Inflation continues to be a problem down under and it is still some way behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target. The RBA cut rates earlier in the year to 1% in an attempt to combat inflation and there is the possibility of further rate cuts during 2019. The next interest rate decision is due during the early hours of tomorrow and although rates are expected to remain unchanged the statement following the decision from the RBA could influence markets if it is again reiterated there is the possibility of further cuts later down the road.
The heavy reliance on China purchasing Australia’s exports is also causing problems for the Australian Dollar. As the US impose increased tariffs on China, China’s growth slows which in turn has a knock on effect to the Australian economy. Investors are choosing to move away from riskier commodity based currencies in favour of save haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or US Dollar.
Increasing probability of a Brexit No Deal
Despite the problems in Australia, Sterling still could face further losses. Boris continues to threaten no deal and stated last week he would be ‘turbocharging’ preparations to leave the EU without a deal. Boris is using the threat of a no deal as ammunition to gain a more favourable deal on Brexit. Basically speaking however, the higher the probability of a no deal the weaker you would expect the Pound to become. Brussels stance remains unchanged again reiterating there will be no concessions to the current deal on the table. It is not in Brussels interest to let the UK leave with a decent deal, they do not want other members of the bloc to consider following suit.
The timeline is also a concern. The parliamentary recess concludes 3rd September leaving less than 8 weeks to get a deal in place, keep in mind Theresa May had two and a half years. According to Bet Fair there is a 57% chance of a general election, if you look at when previous elections have taken place the currency in question tends to considerably weaken. The British 2010 general election serves as testament to this.
If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 18yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are authorised with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading
GBP/AUD hovers above 1.77 as markets await confirmation of new UK Prime Minister, with Boris Johnson the favourite
After a quiet month or so regarding Brexit updates and GBP volatility, the markets are now gearing up for the announcement of the new Tory leader and Prime Minister with frontrunner Boris Johnson expected to win by a clear majority.
It’s likely that the announcement will be made tomorrow and as we’ve seen over the past weekend there could be Conservative Party members that will wish to step down from their positions if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister.
Sterling has gradually lost value since the beginning of May against the majority of currency pairs as the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased. Boris Johnson was one of the key figureheads of the pro Brexit movement and he’s suggested that he’s more open to the idea of a no-deal Brexit and leaving without a deal in place come October the 31st. This is why the Pound has come under pressure so those of our readers following the GBP to AUD exchange rate should be aware of this and the markets perception of Boris Johnson’s plans.
Data is light out of Australia this week, but I would expect all eyes to be on Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe’s speech in the early hours of Thursday morning. Any hints at future monetary policy from the RBA are likely to impact AUD exchange rates so it’s worth keeping an eye on this speech for that reason.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Australian dollar forecast – Will the Aussie weaken?
The Australian dollar has been stronger in recent weeks as investors back the currency, following a series of events which were originally predicted to weaken the currency. Firstly, we saw the trade wars of the last 2 years escalating to the point the Australian central bank were keen to cut interest rates. This saw pound to Australian dollar exchange rates rise to almost 1.88 on the interbank rate. We are currently 1.77, and part of the reason for this is a much stronger Australian currency.
The pound has also weakened following the continued uncertainty relating to the Brexit, which so far has seen the pound losing value as no-deal Brexit becomes more likely, as both Conservative leadership candidates look to keep a no-deal Brexit as an option. It has been said Boris is perhaps more keen on no-deal, with the possibility of him as leader opening a greater prospect of this market viewed, potentially pound sinking option.
This week will see increased news also on Australian interest rate prospects, with the latest Speech by RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) Assistant Governor Kent potentially offering up some news. The market is eagerly awaiting to see if the RBA will be looking to cut levels again in the future, the market has been getting mioxed signals with Chinese growth coming in at 27-year low, but still continuing world beating growth and creating demand for Australian exports.
GBPAUD levels could be influenced by the latest news on the Brexit from the new UK Prime Minister, who will be announced tomorrow morning, before being sworn in on Wednesday evening with a speech planned for around 5pm. Any clients with an interest in GBPAUD exchange rates have plenty of news to be conscious of for this week ahead, please do contact our team to learn more.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you soon, Jonathan Watson – jmw@currencies.co.uk
Could a slowdown in China result in a weaker Australian Dollar?
Our regular readers will be aware of the connecting between the Australian and Chinese economies, and in particular the importance of a strong Chinese economy and how this can benefit Australia along with the Australian currency.
In the early hours of this morning Chinese GDP figures were released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the data shows that in the second quarter of this year China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since 1992, which is growth at a rate of 6.2%. This figure was expected so we haven’t seen a sell-off in the value of the currencies tied to the Chinese economy which the Australian Dollar arguably is, but it could be a warning sign moving forward.
The trade war between Australia and the US appears to have taken its toll on the Chinese economy, and the efforts of the Chinese Central Bank don’t appear to have has d the intending effect which is why the economies growth is shrinking. Through 2018 the growth figure for the year was 6.6%, and I think that those of our clients and readers that are hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should continue to monitor the Chinese economies performance.
Although there will be no data releases out of the UK today, there will be a number of key releases this week such as Earnings Data tomorrow morning and a speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney tomorrow amongst other releases throughout the week. Do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement between the GBP/AUD pair.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Australian Growth data causes Investor Concern (Daniel Johnson)
Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast
The Australian Dollar has suffered of late due to several contributing factors. The most significant catalyst for the fall in Australian Dollar value is the US/China trade war. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and due to this any slow down in growth in China will have an impact on the Australian Dollar.
The Trump administration has placed significant tariffs on Chinese goods and China has retaliated with it’s own tariffs. The trade war is set to escalate and could be ongoing which does not bode well for the Aussie. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export to China and at present demand remains healthy which is good news for the Aussie, that is not to say this situation will last however.
Due to global economic uncertainty investors are choosing to shy away from riskier commodity based currencies such as AUD in favour of safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the US Dollar.
There are economic problems down under such as consumer spending and the cost of living in high wage growth areas such as Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates this month to 1.25% and there is the potential for further cuts.
The Australian economy is growing at its slowest rate in almost a decade, which has fuelled speculation surrounding how long Australia will sustain its run of over 27 years without a recession.
Despite the situation down under I believe the problems in the UK outweigh that of those down under. We currently have no PM and are in complete Brexit limbo. If Boris gets in the probability of a no deal could increase as he will be using this scenario as a bargaining chip to get a better deal from Brussels. A no deal is the investors worst fear and has the potential to cause further woes for Sterling.
If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.
If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Will the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar?
The Pound has this week fought back against the Australian Dollar. With the RBA having cut interest rates the focus now appears to be on Australian unemployment. The figures showed a problem with the jobs market down under which signals that the Australian economy is under some real pressure at the moment.
The average house price has also been falling in Australia and this is beginning to weigh heavily on the value of the Australian Dollar.
Next week the focus will turn back to the Reserve Bank of Australia when the latest minutes are released.
This will provide an insight as to what the central bank are looking to do in the near future concerning monetary policy.
I think there are more interest rate cuts planned this year so if the RBA gives hints that there may be more coming in the near future I think we could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction.
Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth waiting until the middle of week to take advantage of any potential spikes in the market.
The other news affecting the rates is that of the UK’s leadership election. Currently Boris Johnson appears to be the front runner after winning the first round conclusively. If he manages to get into power this could potentially give the Pound a boost against the Australian Dollar as it will provide some certainty at least in the short term.
I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I am confident of being able to save you money when buying or selling Australian Dollars.
If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Australian dollar forecast; Will the RBA cut rates again?
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut their base interest rate recently which has seen the Australian dollar weaker in recent weeks. Interestingly, the currency itself did not weaken massively on the news of the cut to historical lows last week, partly because the market was expecting it. It appears to me that the future, we might well in find the RBA forced to cut rates again.
My overall belief is that the factors which contributed to a weaker Aussie dollar in 2019 will by and large remain. A key factor in all of this is of course the trade wars with Donald Trump putting pressure on the global economy, in particular the Chinese economy which is a major customer for Australian exports.
The resulting slowdown globally is only going to continue in my opinion, this will surely keep pressure on the RBA and perhaps force their hand again down the line. It is probably worth pointing out that the Australian economy has been through one of the longest periods of economic growth in history in the Western world. Economic history suggests that at some point that growth will struggle with tougher economic times and the current trajectory and stagnation seems tricky to just shake off with just one interest rate cut.
There is important economic news for Australia this week with the release of the latest news from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, releasing more detailed information on Australian Unemployment data. This has been a key component of decisions on interest rates, as the RBA grapples with falling Unemployment and also falling Inflation.
The future looks far from straightforward for the Australian dollar, clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might benefit from a quick review with our team, to get the latest news and information on their options and the best strategy to maximise any transfers.
