The GBPAUD exchange rate has slipped lower from the highs of 1.69 and 1.70 fairly recently as investor concerns over the outlook for the UK to raise interest rates increase. Yesterday was the latest Inflation data for the UK and today is Unemployment data where we will get the latest news on Wage Inflation. A big driver on GBPAUD rates this week is how the market reacts to the prospect of the UK raising interest rates which now looks less likely.
Overall the Australian dollar has been stronger against sterling after investors retain an interest in the higher yielding Australian dollar which represents a very good opportunity to earn a higher yield on their investments. The big news on the Australian dollar will be the Unemployment data which is released tomorrow evening and could see the Aussie even stronger against the pound.
If you have a transfer buying or selling the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is key to understanding the current trends and themes in the market. With there being a high chance the pound will lose further value GBPAUD rates could be well worth considering if you have to buy Australian dollars with pounds.
We are currently at some of the better rates of this year, the worst deals were in the 1.50’s so with 1.70 only a couple of cents away and the forecast in my opinion pointing downwards say to the mid or lower 1.60’s, I think if you are buying Australian dollars moving sooner would be the best course of action.
For AUD sellers buying pounds the market remains very favourable so if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling please don’t hesitate to get in touch and discuss further the market and how we can help you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information.
The Pound has been trading in a volatile fashion today as a number of headlines have resulted in Sterling movement.
Although there is no major data set for release out of the UK this week, and there was little released today by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound move further as Brexit talks appear to be heating up.
This afternoon we saw the Pound sold off as it appeared that Brexit Secretary David Davis has a different opinion to his European counterparts regarding how Brexit negotiations are going. The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde today also threw her hat into the mix and stated that there needs to be more clarity regarding the Brexit, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unimaginable.
The downward trend has since reversed for the Pound as in the last 30 minutes or so its been reported that Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit has stated that the EU could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market after Brexit.
In a market like this its very difficult to judge which way the market will move, but working on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to the sudden moves.
Today’s price movement has been over 1.25% which on large currency transfers can equate to a substantial amount of money, which is where timing your transfers can really make the difference.
There are no major announcements out of Australia either this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment with today’s trading session being a clear example of how comments from significant personnel can move the markets.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Despite some negative data being released down under in the early hours this morning, the Pound has still dropped against AUD throughout the day’s trading.
The worst Retail Sales figures in 4 and a half years were published this morning, as it turns out that Australian consumers are beginning to cut back on items such as food, clothing and furniture.
The reading for July was also revised down from the previous reading, meaning that the two drops in sales figures are the biggest back to back drop since 2010.
Despite this this disappointing data release the Pound has still fallen against the Aussie Dollar, whereas the majority of other major currency pairs have risen against the Aussie.
Sentiment surrounding the Pound took a knock today as ratings agency, Standard & Poors questioned whether the UK could withstand an interest rate rise, and it emerged that car sales in the UK are continuing to drop.
There has also been a lot of talk regarding UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s calamitous speech to the Conservative party conference on Wednesday.
Odd’s are increasing on her resignation and although I don’t expect any changes at number 10, I think any talk surrounding this matter could result in a weaker Pound which could push the GBP/AUD pair down towards the 1.60 mark.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Many economists globally are expecting the Australian dollar to come under further pressure for the rest of the year as the US begin to reverse the bad run seen over the last 6 months. It’s been widely publicized that the Federal Reserve are likely to raise interest rates in December. If this materializes the overpriced Australian dollar is likely to devalue as currency speculators move out of the risky commodity currency and into the safe haven US dollar for higher returns on their investments.
In regards to GBPAUD exchange rates the pound has been losing momentum against the Australian dollar over the last 5 trading days as yearly GDP numbers fell to 1.5% from 1.7%, mortgage approvals were down by 3,000, markit manufacturing fell from 56.9 to 55.9 and PMI construction fell from 51.1 to 48.1. However the Bank of England are suggesting an interest rate hike could occur as early as next month which could provide further opportunity for Austrian dollar buyers.
This evening Australia are set to release retail sales numbers, trade balance, including import and export numbers and RBA assistant Governor Debelle’s speech. For more information on how these data releases impacted the market feel free to drop me an email and I will respond tomorrow morning.
If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.
After briefly rising above 1.70 on a strengthening pound and a weaker Aussie, GBPAUD is currently back into the 1.68’s. This is largely a revert to the more normal themes on the currency pair with sterling ebbing lower and the Aussie stronger. The pound is weaker because UK economic data has failed to live up to the high expectations, the Australian dollar stronger because the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept rates on hold and were not dovish in their commentary over when rates might rise in Australia.
I say back to normal because this is the more usual behaviour the pair has displayed and that has driven GBPAUD rates. We have said many times that for any clients buying Australian dollars with pounds will more than likely end up disappointed from holding on too long since the pound seems bound to remain on the weaker side.
Some investors had also been laying bets the RBA would raise interest rates next year, the removal of these expectations in commentary fro the RBA had seen the Aussie weaker helping with the moves over 1.70 recently. However despite the change in sentiment, the Australian dollar with a interest rate of 1.5% remains one of the most attractive currencies to hold from the perspective of how much yield or return it will give investors. This helps keep the Australian dollar strong and should serve as a reminder to any clients hoping GBPAUD would quickly go to 1.80 or higher in the coming weeks and months.
Global events also must be factored in here, the Australian dollar was weaker on concerns over North Korea too but these tensions have cooled. Expectations on when the US will raise interest rates also play a part and could see the Aussie weaker if the US raise interest rates in December although generally speaking the US has been disappointing investors with the pace of hikes and the US dollar is much softer.
Friday is the big day this week with US Non-Farm Payroll data which will have a bearing on the Aussie as investors switch positions around according to their views on the US and global economy.
If you have a transfer pending buying or selling Australian dollars why not get in touch and see if we can help? I am very confident I can give you some insight into the latest trends plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, you have nothing to lose from sending an email.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any transfers.
Jonathan Watson
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rate son hold overnight at 1.5%, with the Pound making some small gains against the AUD this morning.
GBP/AUD rates have touched 1.70 again but the AUD is continuing to find support around this threshold.
It is likely that investors will need to see evidence that the Brexit negotiations are progressing, in order for the Pound to make any aggressive move above this level.
A recent downturn in Australia’s economic output and a report indicating that the RBA may not raise interest rates until 2019, has weakened the AUD’s value.
It was only a few weeks ago that GBP/AUD were trading close to 1.60, so the current high and recent improvement may be the opportunity those clients holding GBP have been waiting for.
The Pound has also benefited from talk of a prospective rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) but this is still not guaranteed and may have already been priced in to Sterling’s current value to some extent.
We also need consider the on-going negative perception around Brexit negotiations and with UK PM Theresa May struggling to keep her party aligned, many negative factors continue to weigh heavily on the UK economy.
For these reasons I would not be gambling on a major spike for the Pound over the coming weeks, with any trade around 1.70 offering significant value in my opinion.
If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.
Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.
Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.
We have seen the Pound consistently challenge levels of 1.70-1.71 in the last fortnight with the Pound clearly finding support vs the Australian Dollar.
The UK economic data announced during September was generally speaking very positive and this has been reflected in GBPAUD exchange rates.
UK inflation has hit a 5 year high recently and this has caused the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates sooner than the market previously had expected.
Typically if inflation rises then a central bank will hike rates in order to control the problem.
However, with UK average earnings falling behind inflation then in my opinion I think an interest rate hike could cause a problem for economic growth in the future.
The Reserve Bank of Australia are due to meet on Tuesday to announce their latest interest rate decision and at the moment I think the RBA will keep rates on hold but each meeting for the last few months has caused a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates.
If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.
A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Countries around the globe this year have been raising interest rates due to the global outlook improving. The Reserve Bank of Australia are one of the countries that have kept interest rates at record lows and many economists have predicted that a hike could occur sooner rather than later.
However Australian lender Westpac announced this week this think it is unlikely that interest rates will be raised until 2020 which could have major implication for Australian dollar exchange rates, if their predictions come true. Westpac’s theory is that it is unlikely that wages pressure will rise and consequently inflation will remain at current levels.
With most leading nations raising interest rates the Australian economy would be left behind and investment would continue to leave the Australian dollar which means buying currency would become more expensive.
However ANZ have a slightly different view and believe household debt is high, referring to the housing bubble in the major cities therefore they believe the Reserve Bank of Australia are likely to rise twice in 2018.
It just shows trying to predict Australian dollar exchange rates long term is very difficult however I believe the Governor will continue to monitor and if the Australian dollar exchange rates devalue further in the upcoming months the likelihood of an interest rate hike increases.
If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.
** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **
GBP/AUD exchange rates hit 1.70 overnight, with the Pound finding support over recent days.
The reason for the improvement is more likely tied to a report released by Australian lender Westpac, which suggested they do not expect to see an interest rate hike in Australia until 2020.
This news is a far cry from the three rate hikes that had been predicted by the ANZ bank by the end of 2019 and the markets have reacted accordingly to the news.
Investors had probably started to factor in further rate hikes but with this scenario now called into question, investors have started to pull funds away from the AUD, devaluing it as a result.
Whilst a decision on interest rate rises rests with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), it does look increasingly unlikely one will occur in the short-term and despite continued pressure on the UK economy due to Brexit negotiation fears, it may be wise to protect any short-term AUD sell positions around the current levels.
Looking at the UK economy and the current market focus still centres very much around Brexit and how negotiations are likely to fair over the coming months.
Theresa May’s much anticipated Brexit speech went ahead on Friday, as members of the press waited in anticipation for an insight into the UK’s revised strategy for leaving the single bloc.
Whilst her bullish tone was expected, she reaffirmed many of her previous comments and as such I was left fairly underwhelmed by much of what was said.
The key points focused on rights of EU nationals, a smooth Brexit transition and a commitment to on-going payment subsidies to the EU, following the UK’s transition to a single state entity. The PM once again reiterated that the UK would not remain part of the single market or customs union, as the fallout continued following what has fast become one of the highest profiled and messy divorces in the history of politics.
Despite her positive, almost nostalgic undertone, it was interesting to note that she still believes that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
It will be interesting to note how EU leaders and subsequently the markets react to the key points of her speech but nothing she said gave any indication that negotiations were suddenly going top progress positively, or at any great pace.
If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.
Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.
Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.
Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar lost value against all of the major currencies due to RBA governor Philip Lowe announcing that it was unlikely the RBA would raise interest rates anytime soon.
Within my last article I suggested this would be the case, as the Governor in recent months has made it clear if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen in value, this could have a negative impact on GDP and the amount of jobs that are created.
The Australian dollar also took a tumble due to a further fall in the commodity iron ore. Iron ore is Australia’s largest goods export and over the last six trading sessions is down 13.7%. There is a direct correlation with iron ore and Australian dollar exchange rates. When iron falls exchange rates fall when iron rises exchange rates rise.
However the Australian dollar didn’t devalue much against sterling this week as Theresa May’s lack lustre speech in Florence Friday left the currency markets wanting more and therefore a sell off of sterling occurred. The PM gave no indication to how much the UK would pay the EU when the UK departs and this is what the market was anticipating.
It’s a quiet week for Australian economic data releases, the only release to look out for is Private sector credit Friday morning however this isn’t normally a big market mover. For people that are buying or selling Australian dollars this week should also analyse the other currency that you are converting.
If you are making a currency conversion in the upcoming weeks or months, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair you are converting (AUDUSD, AUDEUR, AUDGBP) the reason for your transfer (business transaction, property purchase) and the timescales you are working to and I will respond to your email with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.
Dayle Littlejohn
