Tag Archives: currency transfer

AUD Forecast – RBA Keep Interest Rates on Hold at Record lows as GBP Finds Support Overnight (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have spiked back above 1.84 overnight, as the Pound continued its recovery following last week’s losses.

Sterling was under considerable pressure following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure, to once again get Parliamentary approval for her Brexit deal. This was the third time she has failed to gain the necessary support from MP’s and investors reacted to this by selling off their GBP positions, causing a sharp dip in value for the Pound.

This downturn inadvertently boosted the value of the AUD, which has had its own problems recently. The AUD saw its value increase by over four cents against the Pound, hitting 1.8290 at the high.

At this stage it seemed as though GBP/AUD exchange rates could be heading back towards 1.80, with the markets seemingly losing faith in the UK’s ability to find some common ground over Brexit, with MP’s unable to agree upon the best way forward in regards to a Brexit deal with the EU.

With further twists likely in this ongoing saga, those clients holding GBP may look at this week’s upturn as an opportunity, with the uncertainty over the UK’s final Brexit position likely to hamper any significant upturns for Sterling.

Looking at the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met last night and as anticipated kept interest rate son hold at the current record lows of 1.5%.

Like other commodity based currencies, the AUD has struggled to impose itself of late, with a slowdown in global trade causing investors to shy away from riskier assets such as the AUD. With the Chinese economy also showing signs of a longer-term slowdown, due for the most part to the on-going trade stand-off with the US, the outlook for the Australian economy remains dovish.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate today and what will happen to rates after 29th March?

The Pound has been challenging 1.87 on the Interbank level against the Australian Dollar over the last few days but has struggled to hold on to its gains for any sustained period.

Sterling has made the gains owing to a number of reasons but arguably the two most important factors affecting the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is that of China and Brexit.

The impact of China on the Australian Dollar

China appears to be back tracking on its arrangements with the US in terms of its trading position and this is likely to impact trade between China and Australia. The Trade Wars are still going on between the two superpowers and this is causing a problem for the Australian Dollar.

China is Australia’s largest consumer of its natural resources and as Australia is heavily influenced by commodity prices as well as demand from the world’s second largest economy any reduction in demand will often tend to weaken the Australian Dollar and this appears to be what is happening at the moment.

The impact of Brexit on the Pound to the Australian Dollar

Turning the focus back towards what is happening in the UK and it is Brexit that is dominating all the headlines at the moment. The Speaker of the House John Bercow recently announced that the Prime Minister will not be allowed to hold another ‘meaningful vote’ if the new deal is very similar to that already proposed which was voted against recently.

With just ten days to go before the UK is set to leave the European Union things are still uncertain as to what will happen next. The likelihood is that Brexit will be postponed but for how long is the most important question.

Theresa May is due to travel to Brussels to discuss the terms of any delay but all the 27 members of the European Union will have to agree to any proposed extension period so there is still a risk to the value of the Pound.

I personally think that a no deal Brexit will be avoided and an extension will be granted and once this happens depending on the length of the delay I think this could provide the Pound with some real support against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

AUD Forecast – Despite Brexit Uncertainty the AUD Remains Under Pressure (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has come under increasing pressure over recent weeks, with the Pound now trading around 1.87.

GBP has regained approximately 5 cents in the past few weeks, which is the equivalent of an additional 5000 AUD on 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

The Pound has made these inroads despite the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit. With the UK’s current exit deadline fast approaching, we still do not have any clarity on what the final outcome will be and this in itself you could argue, should be restricting any major improvement for GBP.

It seems as though the markets have spiked on the back of Parliaments decision last week, to move away from a no-deal Brexit outcome. However, unless UK Prime Minster Theresa May can convince MP’s to vote on her Brexit deal at the third time of asking, then an extension to Article 50 looks like the only remaining option.

How long any prospective extension might be is now what the markets will likely focus on and any further improvements for the Pound, will likely be impacted by this decision. With rumours of a two-year extension being floated, how will investors and the public react to such a scenario?

If an extension is granted without any indication of an agreement being virtually in place, then investor confidence could take a hit. It is likely to be followed my major public unrest, with people seemingly losing patience with the on-going saga.

Looking at the Australian economy and with concerns over falling house prices and a slowdown in global trade, investors seem to be shying away from the once popular AUD.

Add this to concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will look to cut interest rates possibly twice this year and it is easier to understand why the Pound has made inroads against the AUD of late, despite investors remaining cautious about the Pound and its future prospects.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

 

AUD Forecast – Australian Economic Output Continues to Heap Pressure on the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)

The AUD has been under growing pressure of late, with the Pound finding plenty of support above 1.85.

Australia’s economy remains stagnated, with concerns over global trade and uninspiring growth figures, handicapping any sustainable advances for the AUD.

This period of relative economic downturn is causing investors to shy away from the AUD, which like all commodity-based currencies is struggling to maintain its levels, due to investors risk appetite being minimal.

Yesterday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, along with last night’s Retail Sales figures are likely to reinforce this negative undertone, although the silver lining for those clients holding AUD is that the poor figures have not yet caused the AUD to slip further against GBP.  GDP figures showed a drop to 0.2% month on month and whilst Retail Sales data showed an improvement from last month’s reading of -0.4%, they still came out under the markets expected result at 0.1%.

It is no real surprise then that the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to hold interest rates at their record lows of 1.5%. This is also causing the AUD to be less attractive to investors, who in years gone by would have looked at Australia’s previously high interest rates as an opportunity for a high yielding return on their funds.

Whilst the current climate is hardly like to inspire longer-term confidence in the Australian economy, things could be set to get wore before they get better.

One of Australia’s largest banks Westpac recently release their economic forecast for the rest of the year, in which they predicted the RBA would cut interest rates again, possibly twice by November. If this scenario comes to fruition, interest rate should fall to new record lows of 1%. This in turn will likely have negative ramifications for the AUD.

Whilst the UK continues to try and find some common ground with the EU in regards to the Irish backstop arrangement, as of yet, no breakthrough has been made. With the second “meaningful vote” fast approaching, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is running out of time to push through the amendments she will need, in order to convince parliament to vote in favour of her Brexit deal.

The markets focus will remain firmly on the UK ahead the current Brexit deadline of March 29th but any breakthrough in talks with the EU and a positive outcome to next week’s vote, is likely to drive investor confidence in the Pound and a move up to and even through 1.90 is certainly a feasible outcome.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company, we have over nineteen years’ experience in helping our clients extract the most from any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

AUD Forecast – Will GBP/AUD Rates Reach 1.90 Over the Coming Days? (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has seen its value steadily rise against the AUD over the course of the trading week, moving back above 1.87 at the high overnight.

Whilst the AUD has found some support today around the current levels, the long-term outlook for the Australian economy remains dovish to say the least. Westpac, one of Australia’s largest banks has predicted further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year.

With interest rates already set at record lows of 1.5%, any further decreases are likely to add to the growing sense that the Australian economy is set for a period of stagnation.

Add to this the prospect of Brexit talks finally moving yielding some kind of positive outcome, and it’s conceivable to imagine the Pound making further inroads back above 1.90.

Whilst the current outlook may seem more favourable for Sterling, the current optimism is based on Brexit talks actually yielding a positive outcome ahead of the second “meaningful” vote. This is scheduled to take place by March 12th and it will give UK MP’s the chance to vote on any amendments to UK PM Theresa May’s original Brexit withdrawal agreement with the EU.

Should the PM manage to negotiate any amendments, they would almost certainly have to include some type of concessions from the EU regarding the current Irish backstop arrangement. Many of the MP’s who voted against the PM’s initial deal in the House of Commons have stated that this is the key issue that needs to be resolved.  Therefore any softening the EU’s stance on this contentious issue, could bring it with renewed optimism that a deal can be reached by the current deadline of March 29th.

Needless to say any failure on her part to do so, will likely end the chances of a deal being agreed by the end of March and a different approach will have to be adopted. The EU would then have to grant an extension to the current deadline in order to help facilitate further talks, which will hopefully then lead to a positive outcome.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

US/China Trade War and Brexit dictate GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Progress in US/China talks

Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services any fall in growth from China has an impact on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

The US/China trade war is a huge concern amongst investors, a trade war between the world’s two largest economies has huge implications. The Trump administration wants China to change its economic strategy, something Chinese President,  Xi Jinping will be reluctant to do. The changes that are being asked for would hit the Chinese economy hard and  long term. It may be the case that the Chinese will try and give very small concessions in  bid to lengthen the trade war and out last Trumps reign. A dangerous game considering the US has threatened to increase tariffs to 25% should their terms not be met. 25% is a huge increase and if China retaliate both economies will suffer not to mention the global impact.

At present, trade talks seem to be progressing well.  When asked about how talks were going yesterday in Beijing, US Treasury Secretary , Steven Mnuchin replied “so far so good.”

If it were not for the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit I think Sterling would be making gains against the Aussie. Although, the pound could lose value as negotiations with Brussels intensify I think the likely outcomes are either an 11th hour deal or an extension, both of which could cause significant Sterling strength. Morgan Stanley recently suggested there was less than a 5% chance of a no deal scenario. The market moves on rumour as well as fact so due to a no deal Brexit being largely factored out of the equation at present, if it were to occur expect  a large drop in the pound as this outcome is definitely going against the grain.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18yrs and FCA registered.If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

AUD Forecast – Heavy Losses for the AUD Overnight as Interest Rate Hike Looks Extremely Unlikely (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has made significant gains against the AUD overnight, gaining almost three cents.

It currently trading at 1.8176, having been marooned below 1.79 during the early part of the trading week.

What’s surprising is that this improvement has come about despite the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK’s impending Brexit, with talks between the UK and EU once again seemingly at an impasse.

This indicates that last night’s heavy losses for the AUD were linked to a sharp drop in investor confidence in the AUD, rather than any major influx into the Pound.

This means those clients holding GBP and looking to buy AUD have been given a window of opportunity, which equates to an additional 3000 AUD on a 100k GBP/AUD currency exchange.

The reason the AUD lost significant value is likely linked to comments made overnight by the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Philip Lowe, who indicated that the central bank were unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon, meaning that they will likely be kept at record lows for the foreseeable future.

The Australian economy was already under pressure due to the current trade standoff between the US and China. With no long-term solution in sight, despite rumours that President Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this month, the outlook for the AUD does not look overly positive.

Australia relies heavily on trade with China and with China’s demand slowing, this will inevitably have a negative impact on the Australian economy and ultimately the AUD.

With a slowdown in global growth also impacting commodity-based currencies such as the AUD, how GBP/AUD rates will evolve over the coming weeks and beyond, will depend much on whether or not the UK can ultimately agree a Brexit deal with the EU.

If the UK fails to do this, then the AUD is likely to be inadvertently boosted by a sell-off of GBP positons.

If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the slowdown in China put pressure on the Australian Dollars value?

The main news within the financial markets this morning is the release of 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product from China. The figure is followed closely owing to its importance, as the Chinese economy is the 2nd largest globally and GDP data measures economic output.

The figure released is 6.4% year on year in the forth quarter, and this was expected. The headlines will centre on the annual figure which is now officially 6.6% through 2018 which is the lowest figure on record since 1990, almost 30 years ago.

Now that the annual GDP figure has been released the concerns surrounding a slowing Chinese economy have been confirmed, and this could spell trouble for the global economy with economies such as Australia’s likely to feel the pinch considering the extent to which the Australian and Chinese economies are intertwined. The negative effects of the US-China trade war can now been seen so hopes of a deal being stuck will be a high as ever, and it’s likely that the talks could impact AUD exchange rates as AUD could react to US-China sentiments.

From the UK side, this afternoon could offer GBP exchange rates some direction as UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will announce the governments Plan B now that her deal hasn’t made its way through parliament. The pound has dropped off slightly at the beginning of this week which is likely due to the anticipation of what will be said later. For now, cross party discussions have come to a halt as the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn has stated that we won’t talk until a no-deal is ruled out.

I think that this afternoon’s announcement is likely to drive GBP exchange rates to begin with and that the Irish backstop will be a major talking point regarding the new plan.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit continues to be the main influence on GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Could Brexit January 15th vote simply lead to another?

GBP/AUD rates continue to be largely dictated by Brexit. Theresa May has now confirmed 15th January as the date that parliament will vote on her current deal. The vote was originally delayed due to May’s lack of confidence in the deal going through. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Junker has said there will be no changes to the current deal and he is only willing to clarify the current terms. Could it be the case that Junker will make concessions? Or could the threat of a no deal Brexit force a vote through?

May has suggested if the deal does not go through at her first attempt then there will be a second vote, this could point to out that she feels Brussels will change it’s stance. There is still a huge lack of clarity surrounding Brexit which is not sitting well with investors. The majority of scenarios are Pound negative, but if May were to be ousted or resign we could see a second referendum back on the table.

If May’s deal does not go through we  could see a leadership challenge from Corbyn or indeed we could see her resign if it looks like the deal will have no chance of going through, although  I don’t take her for a quitter. I am not a particular fan of May, but you cannot help but admire her perseverance.

If you look historically if a country loses it’s leader the currency in question would weaken, however in this situation it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. We could see an initial fall due to political uncertainty, but if it appears a second referendum comes to the forefront it is widely predicted that the vote would come in in favour of remaining in the EU according to polls. This could boost investor confidence and in turn the pound.

Would I be hanging on for this if I was selling Sterling?

The answer is no. The majority of Brexit outcomes  result in Sterling weakness, if you have to move short to medium term I would be looking to take advantage of current levels or at least a tranche for safety. The ongoing trade war between the US and China is a concern for the Aussie and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling would be experiencing gains against AUD, unfortunately the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit is outweighing the trade war.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Brexit chaos continues as Conservative MP’s trigger a vote of no confidence in PM May, will this put pressure on GBP/AUD?

This morning it’s been announced that a vote of no-confidence has been triggered by the Conservative Party after Sir Graham Brady, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee confirmed that he has received at least 48 letters of no-confidence from Conservative MP’s.

The Chairman of the 1922 Committee isn’t required to announce how many letters he’s received but we do know that it’s at least 48 as this number constitutes 15% of the Tory members. Since the news broke the Pound has actually remained unchanged and this is probably because the vote will take place this evening between 6.00 pm and 8.00 pm so until shortly afterwards we won’t know the outcome and therefore, the next steps for Brexit.

Since the announcement which was around 7.45 am this morning, there have been a number of Conservative MP’s that have outlined their plans to support May, with the general consensus that a change in leadership this far into the Brexit process would be chaotic. If there are a number of votes against against her though, there is a chance she may resign even if she’s not obliged to owing to the lack of support from her own political party.

May has already given a speech outside Downing Street this morning whereby she’s highlighted that if she’s replaced a new leader would have to delay Brexit, as they wouldn’t have enough time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.

With regards to the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate I would expect to see the next potential market movement to come after the vote this evening, with the result expected to be released shortly after the vote.

AUD exchange rates have been influenced over the past week and a half by the concerns that the US-China trade war tensions could resurface, as China is Australia’s main trading partner. Those of our readers planning a GBP/AUD trade should follow this matter as it’s the main driver of AUD value at the moment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.