Tag Archives: currency transfer
AUD Forecast – Economic Crisis in Turkey is Negatively Impacting the AUD (Matthew Vassallo)
Sterling has made inroads against its AUD counterpart over the past few days, with GBP/AUD rates moving back above 1.76.
The AUD and other commodity-based currencies have seen their value dip, since the Turkish economic crisis deepened towards the later part of last week.
The Turkish Lira (TYR) has hit record lows against the USD, with inflation levels in Turkey hitting a staggering figure of 15%. The Turkish stock market has fallen by over 17%, causing investors to panic, whilst also sapping their risk appetite.
When the global markets stutter and investors risk appetite falls, usually commodity-based currencies feel the negative effects first. These are considered riskier assets by investors, which are generally sold-off in times of global market uncertainty. This is one of the reasons why the Pound has made inroads against the AUD over the past few days but the key question now, is how much higher is Sterling likely to go?
With UK Prime Minister Theresa May on holiday, Brexit talks will remain on hold until her return. This means that the current crisis in Turkey is likely to dominate headlines over the coming days, which could lead to further pressure on the AUD.
The UK economy also received a boost this morning, following the release of the latest UK Unemployment data. The official Unemployment Rate fell to 4%, which could also help to support GBP around its current levels.
Moving forward and the markets concerns over Brexit have not disappeared and are likely to resurface before long. Therefore, if I was holding Sterling and looking to buy AUD, I would be keeping a close eye on market developments in the short-term, rather than holding out for any longer-term sustainable gains.
If you have an upcoming AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.
Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.
Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.
Australian dollar rises slightly on RBA decision and a more positive outlook!
The Australian dollar has strengthened slightly on a more positive backing from the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia. By not being too dovish or soft in their outlook, the Australian dollar has risen. The market is loosely expecting an interest rate hike in the future but this could now be as far ahead as 2020! Some had expected the RBA to be more negative last night, however they were quite positive about the Australian economy.
This has seen the Aussie dollar rise against all currencies, notably the pound and even the US dollar. GBPAUD has been driven into the 1.74’s whilst AUDUSD has risen to 0.7430. Expectations for the Australian dollar centre around the progress of their economy, Governor Lowe will give a speech later this week which could see further news to move the Australian dollar.
Last night’s interest rate decision moved the market as it was more positive than many had expected. It is now believed that in the future the global trade wars which have been raised as a concern which might negatively impact the Australian dollar, may not been such bad news. Tracking the data from China and the commentary from the RBA shows that perhaps this issue will not be as detrimental for the Australian dollar as believed.
Whilst stating they were not overly concerned at the moment from the slowdown in China, this was highlighted as a potential issue for the future and this could well be something that weakens the Australian dollar in the future.
If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars getting the best information is key to being able to track the upcoming news which might move the markets. For more information on the latest trends and themes which will influence the value of your exchange, please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk
Australian Dollar continues to lose value as inflation levels stall
The financial markets don’t expect to see the base rate of interest change down under until the end of next year according to futures markets, and this is perhaps one of the reasons behind the Aussie Dollars weakening currently.
If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t amend rates the AUD will lose competitiveness as we’ve already seen, as the likelihood of investors holding assets in the currency diminishes owing to the less competitive of the currency. The US Dollar on the other hand has benefited greatly from its more aggressive monetary policy and the greenback has strengthened by such an extent that US President, Donald Trump has voiced his concerns.
The latest bout of Inflation data out of Australia shows that inflation has risen by 2.1% over the past year, which is slightly lower than what economists were expecting. There doesn’t appear to be much momentum regarding Australian inflation levels which is perhaps the reason behind the low expectations of a rate hike in the short-term future.
Although the Pound has been under pressure in recent months owing to the Brexit plan uncertainty, the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is still towards the top end of it’s longer term trend, which demonstrates the pressure AUD exchange rates have come under. The GBP/AUD pair is likely to be driven by both monetary policy and UK based politics as the UK is going through a crucial time due to the Brexit.
Those monitoring the Aussie Dollars value should also pay attention to US President, Donald Trumps trade tariff’s plans as AUD has come under pressure owing to these concerns. With the Australian economy being reliant on global demand a slowdown to the global economy is likely to have a negative impact the Australian Dollars value.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBP/AUD no longer testing 1.80, is a move down into the lower 1.70’s now likely?
After testing the 1.80 mark for a number of weeks, the Pound has recently slipped from these high levels and now the pair are trading closer to 1.75. The 1.80 level does appear to be a resistance and for some time now Sterling sellers would have been best to target their transfers when the mid-market level is as close to 1.80 as possible.
Uncertainty surrounding the UK governments Brexit plans and whether they will be agreed upon in time is behind the drop in the Pound’s value. The fall hasn’t just been against the Aussie Dollar but also against many other major currency pairs with the fall against the US Dollar being one of the most dramatic, as it’s hit a 10-month low.
This week it’s emerged that the Australian jobs market is alot healthier than expected after a substantial amount more jobs were created in May than expected. This has boosted the Aussie Dollar as up until this week the average amount of new jobs was just 16,000 monthly.
One potential downside for the Aussie Dollar is the lack of movement with regards to monetary policy, as the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t plan on amending interest rates this year.
With many major economies beginning to make the hikes the Aussie Dollar may lose value as investors opt not to hold funds in AUD.
With little economic data out of Australia for the remainder of the week, our readers have time to get in touch and plan around transfers next week. Do feel free to get in touch if you would like to discuss next week’s economic data releases and how they could impact the rates.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBPAUD remains range bound
Over the last 30 days GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated in the higher 1.70s with minimal movement as both currencies seem to have been devaluing at the same pace. At the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting officials showed concern in regards to the trade tariffs that have been imposed on China by the US. The Australian know that a slowdown in China will have an impact on the Australian economy. Furthermore the International monetary fund have waded into the debate and announced an all out trade war will end up costing the global economy over $430bn.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is under extreme pressure and last night threatened Tory rebels that she would call a general election if the amendment in regards to the customs union went through the Commons. The uncertainty of another General election would certianly weigh on the pounds value. Furthermore Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney also failed to help the pounds value yesterday, as he stated a Brexit no deal would mean the Bank of England would have to rethink their future plans.
At the end of the week, UK politicians break for the summer holidays, therefore I expect Brexit related news to go quiet for a few weeks. All eyes will turn to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision early August. The market has been pricing in a hike, however I expect the Bank of England will fail to deliver which will mean sterling takes a hit. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD fall back towards the mid 1.70s over the next month.
If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.
UK GDP gives the pound a boost vs Australian dollar
This morning at 9.30am UK Gross Domestic Product numbers were revised to 0.2% from 0.1% for quarter 1 which has given the pound a boost against the Australian dollar. The Bank of England in recent weeks have been hinting that an interest hike could occur as early as August and the improvement in GDP certainly helps the cause. For Australian dollar buyers rates have improved by 0.5%.
Another reason why the pound has been making progressive gains against the Australian dollar is that the Aussie has been weakening due to the trade war between the US and China. The US is Australia’s most important defence ally and China the most important trade partner, therefore Australia are stuck between a rock and a hard place. The theory behind it is that further tensions will put further pressure on the Australian dollar and therefore I would expect GBPAUD to break through 1.80.
In other news the EU summit is now over, and the message from the EU is that the UK need to make progression fast. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has called a meeting at her Cheques country side retreat, and the full cabinet will attend. The rumour on the market is that Theresa May could announce a soft approach which will be outlined in her white paper which should be released early July. I expect this may give the pound a small boost.
If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.
Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)
Sadly the Australian football team’s time at the World Cup has been cut short and similarly with the currency side of things the Australian Dollar has also struggled during the course of the last month as well.
The Trade Wars between the US and China has caused a big problem for the Australian Dollar as China is Australia’s largest trading partner so any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness.
At the moment threats are that the US could impose as much as US$200bn on Chinese goods and this is causing a very big problem for global trade and as the Australian Dollar is a commodity based currency this has been badly affected in the same way as both the South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar.
GBPAUD exchange rates have been heading in the direction of 1.80 but appear to be hitting a level of resistance just below at the moment. However, I think we could see the Pound rise higher going into next month.
The EU summit will be taking place over the next couple of days and as well as the migrant crisis one of the other main topics for discussion will be the latest developments surrounding the Brexit issue and how the EU will work without the UK.
If the talks go well for the UK we could see the Pound potentially break higher than 1.80 against the Aussie Dollar so make sure you’re well prepared to take advantage of any potential spikes in the Pound’s favour.
We end the week with the final revision of UK GDP figures for the first quarter of 2018 so any revision upwards could also send the Pound in an upwards direction.
If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when exchanging Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Could the Pound make further gains this week against the Australian Dollar?
According to many sources the Australian Dollar could be under real pressure in the long term as the Chinese economy continues to slow and the US Federal Reserve continues on their path of raising interest rates.
The Fed has already raised rates 7 times since December 2015 and have already increased rates twice during the course of this year as well.
The Australian Dollar has hit its lowest point vs the US Dollar in twelve months and this has also been caused by the ongoing Trade Wars between the US and China.
The Australian bond yields have now dropped below that offered by US Treasuries and this could get even worse as as the Fed continue their path of raising interest rates later this year.
At the moment the view from the Reserve Bank of Australia is that they are likely to keep interest rates on hold for a long period of time and this is why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently heading in the direction of 1.80 recently.
With the Bank of England due to meet tomorrow afternoon I think the central bank will keep interest rates on hold once again with a 7-2 split but with the UK showing some very positive Retail Sales earlier this month I think we could see some signs that an interest rate hike could be coming sooner than the markets expects and if this is the case we could see the Pound make some further gains vs the Australian Dollar towards the end of the week.
If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
