Tag Archives: dollar

Australian Dollar loses a little ground with economic data miss and Chinese debt still a concern for the RBA

The Australian Dollar lost a little ground in trading yesterday following poor construction data and concerns from the RBA over Chinese debt and the two together led to a drop in demand for AUD and a slight drop in value to go with it.

Construction work was 18% down on figures over the same period last year and only rose 0.2% for the quarter compared to expectations of 1.3% which is quite a big miss.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe remained firm that the RBA would not be in any rush to make adjustments to monetary policy anytime soon and he also commented that a clear build up of debt and bad loans in China is also a considerable risk to the Australian economy. He cited that there have been similar situations in the past that have led to economic slowdown or a full blown financial crisis.

China at present is a large importer of Australian food and service and Chinese tourists currently account for 25% of all tourist Dollars spent in Australian currently, not to mention China being a large importer of Australian iron ore and coal.

This news unnerved investors who are already getting mixed news regarding Donald Trump and trade tariffs  and are already looking to come out of the Australian Dollar due to stagnant interest rates where other seemingly more stable economies around the world (for example the United States) are making their moves and raising interest rates, even now to a point where the USD is a more attractive currency than the AUD as it offers a better return for investors money.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving Australian Dollars and you would like to be kept up to speed with any rate changes then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar weakens a little as U.S Bonds continue to rise – Poor wage growth continues to be an issue

The Australian Dollar has lost a little ground in trading this week with U.S Bonds being partially to blame for the latest bout of Australian Dollar weakness. The U.S treasury yield has recently hit its highest level in 7 years and the reason this is impacting the Australian Dollar is that this is causing a large flow of money to come back out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making USD more expensive to buy and AUD a lot cheaper.

Over the past few years we have seen interest rates continue to rise in the U.S and remain stable in Australia and now that the USD is seen as a more attractive and less risky investment investors are starting to make their moves and to shift money back into the Dollar.

It does not look like we will be seeing a move from the RBA to raise interest rates until next year now which in my opinion will continue to hold the Australian Dollar back. Poor wage growth figures matching the 1.9% inflation figure released have shown that workers have not seen any growth in their wages for the past year and wage growth levels are currently sat very close to historic lows.

What this means is that the general consumer has less money in their pocket to spend and therefore this can impact the economy further. It also will hold back the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates as a move to hike rates now would put homeowners under pressure, so they really are stuck at the moment as to what is the right thing to do.

I believe the RBA will continue to monitor data before rushing anything, but the signs are there for me that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness in the coming months.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving Australian Dollars and any other major currency then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar weakness across the board – Political tensions globally weighing on AUD exchange rates

Today we have seen a bout of Australian Dollar weakness, seeing Australian Dollar exchange rates drop off against the board.

Commodity based currencies saw a sell off as tension rose between Iran and the U.S and we actually saw AUD/USD hit the lowest levels we have witnessed since June 2017 as a result of this.

Poor Australian Retail Sales also were no doubt a contributing factor to this move but it is no doubt that global uncertainty that we now have will impact the Australian Dollar in a negative way.

It has been my view for a while now that the Australian Dollar may be in for a poor year and situations like the latest one between America and Iran will only make matters worse. The Australian Dollar is still perceived as a ‘riskier’ currency so in times of global uncertainty you can see money pour out of the Australian Dollar ind into the so called ‘safer’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar and the Swiss Franc.

Developments regarding political tensions will continue to impact Australian Dollar exchange rates as the week progresses so if you have a large currency exchange to make involving the Australian Dollar then it is important to keep a keen eye on what is happening as it could impact your exchange rate considerably, this is an ever changing situation and we are getting news through 24 hours a day.

If you are in the position where you may need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future then a limit order may be a sensible course of action, this is where you can set yourself a specific target level and should there be a spike in the market at any time 24 hours a day that makes that level a achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically for you, this is just one of the many tools we offer on our trading floor.

If you would like assistance from me personally with your exchange then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to discuss the options that we have available. Please feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be pleased to get back to you.

RBA interest rate decision- Rates look set to continue on hold for the foreseeable future

If comments from the RBA last night are anything to go by it does look like we may be set for stable interest rates for the foreseeable future, despite the fact that we have had a record breaking period of policy stability in recent times.

For the last 19 meetings we have seen no rate movements which now dates back to a stable interest rate since August 2016, in the meantime we are starting to see interest rates for other economies around the world begin to rise, which is why the Australian Dollar has weakened against a number of major currencies over the past year or so.

For those that are not aware an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it will make that currency more attractive to investors, so due to the fact that we have not seen a rise in rates and one does not appear to be on the cards the Australian Dollar has started to lose value, making it cheaper to buy.

Until the RBA gain more confidence in wage growth  and labour market conditions in general then I feel that they will not budge on their stance, they admitted today that employment growth has slowed and that this is one of the reasons why they are still approaching any rate changes with caution.

Some analysts are now predicting that we may not see a move from the RBA until 2020 at the earliest, and with this in mind I personally feel that the Australian Dollar may be set to struggle in the months ahead, especially if you add into the picture falling commodity prices and a lower attitude to risk from investors at present.

If you have the need to make a large currency transfer involving the Australian Dollar, either buying or selling and you would like my assistance both with the timing and achieving the best rate when you come to lock in your rate then you are more than welcome to contact me personally.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you need to do and I will do my best to help you.

Australian inflation comes in slightly below forecasts, AUD weakness as a result

Today Australian inflation figures were released and fell slightly below analysts expectations, leading to a slight drop in value for the Australian Dollar over the course of the trading day.

Expectations had been for inflation to come in at a level of 0.5% however the figure released only came in at 0.4%, the annual rate posted at 1.95%, this does show that inflation is rising but we are still seeing the level of inflation posting below the target rate that the Reserve Bank of Australia have which is a level of 2.5%.

This will more than likely lead to the RBA now continuing to hold off on any interest rate hikes, and I would still be surprised to see a hike in interest rates for Australia this year, although of course a lot can change in the currency markets over a few months so watch this space!

The reason the lower inflation figures led to a slight drop in value for the Australian Dollar is that this has dampened the chances of an interest rate hike happening in the near term, and an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency. With the markets moving on speculation as well as an actual event happening, the fact that an interest rate hike is now deemed to be further away for Australia then leads to weakness for the Australian Dollar.

With numerous other central banks around the world inclusive of the U.S and U.K now making their moves and raising interest rates we are starting to see a flow of money come out of the Australian Dollar and moved into these perceived safer currencies as the rate of return is getting closer to that of the AUD if not better.

If you have the need to carry out a large currency exchange involving buying or selling the Australian Dollar and you would like my assistance then I can help you both get a better rate than the majority of brokerages and also help you put together a game plan on the timing of your transaction, which can also make a big difference.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to explain the various options available to you.

 

Australian inflation key to the next move for Australian Dollar exchange rates

The Australian Dollar has had a mixed week, the RBA meeting minutes from the last RBA interest rate decision suggested that we still cannot see any movement for interest rates in sight and both Chinese growth figures and Australian unemployment were fairly solid.

We have not seen a huge amount of volatility for the Australian Dollar off the back of these data sets, and all eyes now will look towards Australian inflation figures which are due out on Tuesday.

Inflation is expected to have got a little higher in Tuesday’s figures and this may lead to a little improvement for the Australian Dollar early in the week, in my opinion though any improvements in the Australian Dollar may be short lived, I still feel that we are set for a period of weakness for Australian Dollar exchange rates.

As I have mentioned in previous posts there are various reasons for this, inclusive of interest rates rising in other economies around the world, Australian economic data not being great, falling commodity prices and global risk sentiment dropping due to political issues and trade wars. The Australian Dollar is classed as a riskier currency so when global tensions are high you tend to see the Australian Dollar lose ground against most major currencies.

Interest rates are vital to the performance of a currency too as a higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors, with areas such as the U.S now raising rates to a level above Australian interest rates we are seeing qwuite a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making the Australian Dollar weaker and cheaper to buy.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance with achieving the best rate and the timing of it all too then you are moire than welcome to contact me directly and I would be more than happy to help you personally. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you to discuss the options available to you.

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

 

Chinese data gives the Australian Dollar strength to round off the week

We have seen a little strength for the Australian Dollar as we head to the end of the trading week, following better than expected Chinese economic data released overnight.

Trade surplus in China was a lot better than expected coming in way above expectations of $179bn at a level of $326.1bn, this was seen as good news for the Chinese economy and with China being a huge trading partner for Australia any good news from China can lead to Australian Dollar strength.

We have very little in terms of economic data to come out as the weekend nears, so all eyes will now more than likely be on the RBA interest rate decision meeting minutes which are due out next week. This will show what was discussed at the last Australian interest rate decision and my feelings are that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness after this comes out.

Philip Lowe commented last week that he does not expect to see a rate hike being a possibility for a while, and with the level of household debt and poor wage growth still being a concern for the RBA I believe this will be echoed in the meeting minutes and that will drop the value of the Australian Dollar.

An interest rate hike is usually seen as a positive for a currency and with other major economies currently seeing rate rises we are starting to see the Australian Dollar get left behind. As an example, the interest rate in the U.S is now higher than Australia’s and with the U.S Dollar being seen as a less risky option yet with a more attractive return we are seeing a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar as a result of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

Sterling to Australian Dollar rate remains above 1.80, is a move towards 1.90 now a possibility?

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has managed to hold onto the gains it made recently, which could be a key indicator for future movement between the pair.

The key level of 1.80, which had acted as a resistance for almost two-years was broken easily by the Pound as news broke that the UK and EU negotiators have come to an agreement regarding the transitional Brexit agreement.

This news boosted sentiment surrounding the Pound as it saw a boost across the board of major currency pairs, but the gains against AUD have been exaggerated as AUD has been coming under some pressure of its own.

AUD has lost its status as one of the highest yielding major currencies after the US Fed Reserve bank has begun hiking rates in the US, with plans of further hikes this year on the cards. This in-turn has made the Aussie Dollar less attractive, which has helped the Pound hit these high levels.

Despite some poor data out over the last week in the UK’s construction, manufacturing and services sectors the Pound has manged to hold on to its gains which I believe is a positive sign for the Pound moving forward.

There is quite a quiet week of data scheduled for this week out of the UK, but I do think tomorrow could be the busiest day as UK GDP and Industrial and Manufacturing production figures are set for release all before lunchtime.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Major banks expect further AUD weakness following RBA interest rate decision and statement

Today’s RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision and press conference has added further fuel to the fire for Australian Dollar weakness in the coming months.

With the view that dropping commodity prices and the fact that the RBA have now held interest rates for a record breaking 18th monetary policy meeting in a row, it does appear that there may be a fightback from other major currencies against the Australian Dollar.

As mentioned in previous posts an interest rate is of great importance to a currency as it makes it more or less attractive to investors, what we are seeing in other areas around the globe is other economies starting to raise interest rates, most notably America and the U.K and this is in turn leading to a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the perceived safer currencies, thus making the Australian Dollar weaker and more expensive to buy.

Expectations are currently for the RBA to potentially make their next interest rate move in November of this year, if this is the case then we are likely to have seen one further rate hike from the U.K and potentially two more from the U.S before that happens, which may lead to further weakness as the year progresses.

We are at the start of a new month so be sure to keep a keen eye on Australian economic data this month as this may impact on what the RBA decide to do.

If you have the need to buy a large sum of Australian Dollars in the near future, or you need to exchange a large sum of Australian Dollars into another major currency then I can help you personally. Not only do we offer up to date market information but we can also help you achieve the best exchange rate when you do come to lock in your currency, along with assistance with the timing of your transfer.

You are more than welcome to get in contact with me (Daniel Wright) personally if you feel that our service will be beneficial to you, you can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to help you put together a game plan for your specific situation.