Tag Archives: dollar

Australian Dollar still losing ground against most currencies – Interest rates are key globally

The Australian Dollar is not having a great run of things lately, as numerous economies appear to picking up and the U.S have once again raised interest rates, bring them ahead of the current rate in Australia.

The reason this current movement is important is that U.S interest rates are now higher than interest rates in Australia, so what essentially happens is investors will move their funds out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, as it offers a more attractive return on their money and is seen as a more stable currency.

The outlook for Australian interest rates still does not suggest any hike in the near term, however the Federal Reserve in the States did dampen expectations a little for the year ahead in last nights monetary policy statement.

I still feel there is further room for Australian Dollar weakness in the coming weeks, most notably we have seen a big movement for Sterling against the Australian Dollar over the past week or so, breaking through the key level of 1.80 and not stopping there.

Sterling is on a good run at present, and now that average earnings figures have fallen in line with inflation there is room for interest rates in the U.K to start coming up again too, the Bank of England interest rate decision later this morning will be key and so will the minutes from the meeting, as they may give an indication on future plans.

If you are in the position that you may need to carry out a currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months ahead then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly, you can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you directly with live quotes and to help you develop a strategy as to how to move forward with your transaction.


AUD makes slight gains against most majors – Plenty for the market to get stuck into this week

Tomorrow morning sees the release of Australian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2017. Expectations from major analysts is that we may have seen a slight slip from 0.6% to 0.5% Month on month so this could give the Australian Dollar a poor start to the trading day.

Earlier in the week we had the RBA interest rate decision and rate statement which didn’t throw up any major surprises, wage growth is still a concern for the RBA which will more than likely hold them back from raising interest rates and this could weigh on the Australian Dollar.

Thursday morning brings import and export data, along with Trade balance figures from Australia. Chinese data is also due out at the same time and due to the huge volume of exports from Australia to China this can also have an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too.

on Friday we have very little in terms of data from Australia but we do have have Chinese inflation data, expectations are for a slight rise for inflation figures over in China which may give a slight to the Australian Dollar too.

My personal opinion is still that the Australian Dollar may not have a good few months coming up, with little movements in interest rates coming up and other central banks poised to make their move and hike rates in the near future there could be a period of weakness ahead. On top of this there is plenty of global uncertainty out there both with the global economy and numerous areas politically.

Any global uncertainty can also weaken the Australian Dollar as it is perceived as a riskier currency therefore can drop in value when uncertainty is rife.

if you need to carry out an exchange involving buying or selling Australian Dollars in the near future, and you would like to achieve the very best rates on top of the highest level of customer service then feel free to get in touch with me directly. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you personally.

A quiet week for Australian data but that does not mean the Australian Dollar will remain flat

We have not seen any major movements from the Australian Dollar against other major currencies this week, but that does no mean that the rest of the week the volatility will stay away.

Most Australian Dollar movements for the rest of the week will come from other announcements around the globe, including numerous economic data releases and speeches from the U.S.

New Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is currently speaking and is also due to speak again tomorrow, due to the fact that these are his first speeches since taking control, any hint on his personal plans for fiscal policy will be of great interest to investors and speculators alike.

At present it seems that the markets are expecting three interest rate hikes from the U.S in the year ahead and should the new man in charge confirm that he plans to progress along the same lines then this may lead to the Australian Dollar losing value in the coming weeks and months.

As mentioned a number of times before on this site any further hikes in interest rates from the U.S will make their interest rate higher than that of Australia, therefore you would expect investors to shift money from the Australian Dollar into the U.S Dollar, not only to ensure that they get a better return but also due to the USD being seen as a safer haven and less volatile.

Commodity prices will still also be of great importance to those following the Australian Dollar in the year ahead and with projections of a slight drop off in commodity prices as the year progresses this could also weigh on the Australian Dollar too.

For anyone specifically with an interest in AUD/GBP no matter which way you need to move money, Friday morning will also be key for you as Prime Minister Theresa May is due to be speaking to the British public with an update on  Brexit, so this could lead to volatility for Sterling hence moving the AUD/GBP rate.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving the Australian Dollar then feel free to get in touch with me directly, I can help you not only achieve the very best rate of exchange but our levels of customer service and speed of transfers are second to none.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Australian Dollar has a tough few days – What else lies ahead this week?

The Australian Dollar has not had a great week this week so far following on from the RBA meeting minutes released yesterday morning.

It still appears that the RBA are quite a way from considering raising interest rate this year, due to various concerns about how this will impact consumers over there and the general economic position for the country as it stands.

One of the key issues as it stands for Australia is wage growth, which is similar to many other economies around the world. Wage growth essentially measures how much people’s wages are going up and as it stands for many central Banks around the world the issue is that there is a gap between wage growth and inflation (the rise in the cost of goods or services).

Interest rates have been left on hold since August 2016 which is the longest level of stability since the early 1990’s and it does not look like there may be a change for a good few months yet.

Wage price index figures are due out tomorrow, which is a measure of the cost of labour and even though it does appear the labour market is looking fairly strong, we are yet to see wage growth pick up, this is slowing down consumer spending as consumers are starting to build up more and more debt.

Recent RBA data also shows that the mortgage debt-to-income ratio for Australia has risen from 120 percent in 2012 to 140 percent recently, which is not great news.

All in all I am still of the opinion that the Australian may struggle in the coming weeks and months as issues like this continue to dent economic data, so if I had Australian Dollars to sell i would be tempted to sell them reasonably soon depending on which currency I needed to purchase, if I had Australian Dollars to buy with another major currency then I would watch this market closely for a spike.

If you are in the position that you need to make a currency exchange in the near future then it would make sense to get in touch with me as I can help you both in terms of achivieving the very best rates along with assistance in the timing of your transaction.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Consumer confidence and unemployment the key data over the coming days

Tomorrow we have the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence reading, Consumer Confidence is a measure of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity, and is a really good overview of how the general consumer is feeling about their economic situation. A higher reading would be good for the Australian Dollar as it suggests that Consumers may be ready to spend more, and a lower reading would usually weaken the Australian Dollar as it suggests that people have less disposable income in their pocket to spend on goods and services.

On Thursday we will also see the release of unemployment figures for Australia, with expectations of unemployment to have dropped from 5.5% to 5.3% which would be a strong figure. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) had lowered their unemployment expectations recently to 5.25% for the year ending June 2018 so this figure would fall in line with the RBA’s predictions and may give the Australian Dollar a good solid Thursday should this come out as predicted.

For those with a currency exchange to carry out involving the Australian Dollar in the coming days, weeks or months you must also be wary that the figure may come out worse than expected, for example should the figure remain at 5.5% or only come down to 5.4% then we may witness Australian Dollar weakness as we head towards the end of the trading week.

We do have a flurry of inflation data out tomorrow afternoon from the U.S which can impact Australian Dollar rates due to the flow between the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar, anything positive for the U.S can generally weaken the Australian Dollar at present, as it heightens the chance of an interest rate hike in the States.

If you need to carry out a currency exchange involving the Australian Dollar and you want to achieve the best rate of exchange, along with help on timing your transfer. You are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to speak with you personally to help with your situation.

Australian Dollar liable to global stock market sell off and RBA warning leads to Australian Dollar weakness

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly choppy week so far this week, generally losing ground against most major currencies due to comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia that indicated that any interest rate hikes may be quite far away, and also due to global uncertainty in the stock market, seeing the Dow Jones and other indexes around the world drop considerably over the week.

The issue with the Australian Dollar is that it is perceived as a riskier currency, therefore when you tend to see a volatile global market, and uncertainty politically or with economic data  around the world you tend to see the Australian Dollar weaken, as investors will shy away from riskier currencies and head to safer havens, such as the U.S Dollar and the Swiss Franc.

As I indicated earlier in the week I do feel that the Australian Dollar may have a tough period coming up, with interest rates due to be raised by various central banks around the world this may lead to a further flow out of the Australian Dollar and into more attractive currencies with better returns on investment.

The RBA also released a monetary policy statement last night, and although economic data is still fairly good there are concerns around slowing wage growth and inflation rising too.

Poor wage growth and high inflation is a big issue for an economy, as it means the cost of goods and services is going up yet the amount the general consumer has to spend is not rising in line with it, another potential issue for the Australian Dollar going forward.

Not only do we offer up to date market information for our readers but we can actually help you with any currency exchanges too, with top foreign exchange rates and a smooth and efficient service. With over ten years of experience in foreign exchange I would like to think I could be an excellent addition to your armoury when taking on these volatile markets. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally or to get you a live quote.

Bet against the Australian Dollar in 2018? It appears many are doing just that!

The Australian Dollar has not had the worst start to 2018 but it does appear that many major banks and institutions are not expecting AUD exchange rates to have such a good year.

We must be wary that we have seen this a couple of times over the past few years with the vastly predicted Chinese slowdown that still does not appear to have come along.

This time however there are multiple sources out there suggesting a drop in value and the reasons are far more justified and likely. The RBA appear to be holding off on any rate changes for the first part of 2018 compared to various other economies around the world looking to raise rates. An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency so this may lead to money moving out of the Australian Dollar and into more currencies such as the USD should the States raise rates numerous times in 2018.

There is an expectation of commodity prices dropping off throughout 2018 too, with Iron Ore being one of the most notable for the Australian Dollar, with this being one of the larger exports for Australia this is expected to impact export income which may have a knock on effect to the economy.

Finally, Morgan Stanley have also been advocating that clients should consider taking a position for the Australian Dollar to lose ground against the Euro and many others have commented that losses against the Dollar have been spoken about by various financial institutions.

In my opinion I would not be surprised to see Australian Dollar exchange rates to have a fairly poor year, however we do need to also remember that the Australian Dollar does appear to have a fairly strong backbone and the RBA can change their stance regularly so this is still very much a currency to watch very closely.

Currency exchange to make in the near future?

If you need to make a large exchange, involving the buying or selling any major currency then it is key that you get in touch with us to see if we can save you money. This site has been running for over 7 years and I have personally dealt with thousands of new clients that have found they can get a better rate through us rather than their current brokerage, we like the think the service is much better too.

If you would like a quote or to discuss plans for a future transaction then you are welcome to contact me, Daniel Wright, the creator of this site personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to run through exactly how I can help and what rates we can offer.

RBA interest rate decision and press conference overnight, along with retail sales, import and export figures too

We have plenty of market data for the market to get stuck into this week, with the Australian Dollar struggling a little recently this may also lead to further weakness for the Australian Dollar unless we hear some positive news.

There have been numerous analysts commenting recently that they felt we may see a slight period of turbulence for the Australian Dollar and one of the reasons behind this had been expectations of very little interest rate movement throughout 2018.

A higher interest rate is generally good for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors. The Australian interest rate spent quite some time being much more beneficial than that of most other majors which is why the Australian Dollar has remained so strong over the past few years.

What we are seeing now is that other major economies (such as the U.S and U.K) are starting to raise their interest rates, most notably the U.S and this is leading to investors moving their money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, thus weakening the Australian Dollar and making it cheaper to buy.

Expectations are for three further interest rate hikes from the U.S this year and with both the U.S and Australian interest rate sat at 1.5% a further move from the states may lead to this flow of money out of AUD as explained above.

This is why focus is on the RBA and their Tuesday interest rate decision, no changes to rates are expected but it will be comments in their following statement that will be watched very closely, as any hint in future rate changes (or that they plan not to make any changes this year) may lead to sharp Australian Dollar movements.

The other economic data will also be important, but I feel that the star of the show will be any news on the next move from the RBA.

If you have a currency exchange to make in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like assistance then I can help you. Having working at my current brokerage for over ten years I am in a good position to not only help you with the timing of your transfer but also getting the best rate of exchange when you do come to book it.

For more information or simply to get a quote on the rates that we can offer feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back in touch with you.

Employment data will be the main focus for Australian Dollar exchange rates this week (Daniel Wright)

In a reasonably quiet week ahead for Australian Dollar news, the main focus for investors and speculators alike this week will be global attitude to risk and Australian unemployment figures. Global attitude to risk can change at any time, especially with the Trump/North Korean situation still ongoing and the unemployment figures are due out on Friday morning in Australia or overnight on Thursday night for those readers from the U.K.

Expectations are for unemployment levels to remain at 5.4% however with a positive improvement in the rise of jobs last month (which was unexpected) do not rule out movement for Australian Dollar exchange rates early on Friday.

Having just spent three weeks in Australia it does appear that views on the Australian economy are mixed at present. Some people I spoke to were really confident about how things were going and others were less positive, citing that they felt that certain areas were at the top of a housing bubble that was due to burst at any time.

My opinion from being on the ground over there, particularly in Sydney (where this bubble appears to have blown up the most) I do not see it crashing down anytime soon. There is a huge amount of building work going on and a great increase in new retail developments from what I can see, along with an influx of Chinese money I find it hard to see the house prices dropping off unless further restrictions are put in place to try and halt it artificially.

For me this suggests that the Australian Dollar should remain fairly strong in the early part of 2018, I do not expect large gains made by the Australian Dollar but I would be surprised not to see the currency hold its ground against most majors, as long as the banana skin of major global uncertainty comes along to change that.

If you have an Australian Dollar exchange to make in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like assistance not only on the timing of your transfer but also with achieving the very best rate of exchange too then I can help you personally.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Having now worked at the same foreign exchange brokerage for over a decade I am well placed to assist you and will be more than happy to help.

Poor wage growth leads to Australian Dollar weakness despite better unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

This week has been a mixed one for the Australian Dollar so far, with a fairly week start and a flatter past 24 hours.

The reason the Australian Dollar lost strength earlier in the week was due to news of slower wage growth than expected.

Wage growth yesterday came out at 0.5% against analyst’s expectations of 0.7% which is the reason why we saw Australian Dollar weakness.

Wage growth is a really important release in the current climate, if wage growth ( the increase in how much people are earning)  is a lot lower than inflation (the increase in the costs of goods and services) then you can generally expect an economy to drop off a little, as people will have less money in their pocket to spend. Bad economic data can then in turn lead to weakness for a currency, and with markets moving well in advance of an event actually happening this is why we are seeing a good opportunity to buy Australian Dollars at present.

Unemployment figures came out today and despite the fact that they actually showed an improvement, the Australian Dollar failed to make any vast improvements against most major currencies.

The rest of the week is fairly quiet but do not be fooled into thinking that the Australian Dollar will remain flat, being perceived as one of the ‘riskier’ currencies there is always the chance of movement should global attitude to risk alter.

Should you be in the position that you need to buy or sell a large amount of Australian Dollars and you would like my help along with a better exchange rate than your bank or current broker then I would love to hear from you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you would like to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to explain how I can assist.