Tag Archives: Exchange Rate Forecast

How will the Greek election affect exchange rates?

June 15, 2012   Australian Dollar Forecast

GBPAUD Transferring AUD Buying AUD Selling AUD Exchange Rate Forecast June 2012 Australian Dollar Forecast

The Greek Election is due to take place on 17th June and up until recently it was widely expected that Syriza would get into power. However, over the last 24 hours a number of polls have put them second to a party who will agree to the austerity measures sought out by the EU Bailout Fund which could provide us with some confidence. Indeed, many surveys have said that 80% of Greeks want to remain in the Euro and I personally think that even if Syriza do come into power there will inevitably be some sort of compromise in order for them to agree the austerity measures. With so much money having been pumped into the Greek economy it is unlikely that the ECB will not get its way. For an interesting article about the subject click on this link http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18454851 

The G20 summit taking place this week has seen global leaders agree to pump cash into the financial system in an attempt to reduce the volatility and stop people attempting a run on the banks. With the UK having agreed to increase lending we have seen the markets react in positive light and the Federal Reserve are also hinting that they could bring in QE which could boost the Australian Dollar exchange rate. With the GBPAUD trading at approx 1.5550 this afternoon on Interbank level the antipodean currency seems to be remaining stable prior to the events on Sunday.

If you need to save money when transferring currency please do not hesitate to contact me Tom Holian quoting ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ in the subject title teh@currencies.co.uk

 

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Australian Dollar News & Job Losses at Hastie Group

May 29, 2012   Australian Dollar Forecast, Australian Dollar Strength, GBP to AUD

GBPAUD exchange rate forecast Buying Australian Dollars Transferring AUD Moving Currency AUDGBP GBP to AUD Australian Dollar Forecast

The GBPAUD exchange rate has dropped again today and has been trading between 1.5974-1.5861 during the session. This has represented little movement for the currency pair which typically trades in a wider range. Hopes are still that Greece will be able to sort out its policies and adhere to teh austerity measures put in place by the EU Bailout Fund. Spain announced today that investors were showing caution as government bond yields increased creating fears that Spain may also come into financial difficulties. Both teh Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar have both lost about 5% against Sterling this month on the increasing problems surrounding Greece. The next push for the AUD may come in the form of Chinese news and any positive announcements could see the Australian Dollar strengthen but to me this seems at least for the moment unlikely.

Australian Home Sales came in better than expected which showed an improving housing sector which gave the AUD a small burst following the news. Later this evening we see the releases of Australian Construction data and Retail Sales so keep your eyes on the currency markets to see how these data releases may affect you exchange rate to buy or sell Australian Dollars. For further information about this report or how to save money when transferring currency please do not hesitate to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘ADF’ in the subject title.

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Sterling Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Drops to 1.5877

May 28, 2012   Australian Dollar Forecast, Australian Dollar Strength, GBP to AUD

GBPAUD AUDUSD AUDGBP USDAUD Buying Australian Dollars Exchange Rate Forecast Sterling Australian Dollar Australian Dollar Forecast GBP to AUD Australian Dollar Strength

The Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBPAUD) has dropped to its lowest level in a while as Greek fears has eased the currency markets. The AUD has strengthened against Sterling following weekend elections in Greece which put the conservative New Democracy party ahead of the leftist Syriza party. With the confidence returning to Europe, at least in the short term with a lot of stock indices improving by 1% today, investors has been attracted to the yields that the Australian Dollar offers. This week is a busy one for the Australian Dollar as we have retail sales and indication of the Quarter 1 GDP due out. As China has slowed down in recent months this has negatively affected thje commodity rich country of Australia and therefore a negative movement for AUDGBP. The recent cutting of the Australian interest rate to 3.75% from 4.25% was aimed at improving the Australian economy which has seen signs of slowing since the turn of the year. Indeed, the AUDUSD has fallen by as much as 10 cents since early March.

All eyes will conitune to focus on the Greek elections and any large exchange rate movement may be limited between now and then. With elections due to take place on 17th June if the Greeks can form a new govenemnt and herefore agree to the austerity measues suggested by the EU Bailout Fund we could see a strenghtening of the Australian Dollar exchange rate against the Pound as investors look to maximise their return with high interest rates.

This week we see the release of Australian new homes sales. The previous figure was 3% so any fluctuation could see a little volatility and Wednesday we teh release of Retail Sales with expectations for a drop from 0.9% to 0.2%. For more information about dealing with a long established currency broker please do not hesitate to contact me Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ in the subject title.

 

 

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Exchanging Sterling into Australian Dollars Today’s Exchange Rate Information

May 24, 2012   Australian Dollar Forecast, Best Rates, GBP to AUD

GBPAUD AUDGBP USDAUD AUDUSD Converting Australian Dollars Exchange Rate Forecast Moving Money to Australia Sending Australian Dollars GBP to AUD Best Rates

The GBPAUD exchange rate is once again hitting levels 1.61 today following the EU summit currently being held in Brussels. The summit is intended to come up with a plan to resolve the European Debt Crisis but as yet no solution has been offered. the hopes for the meeting is to create a pro-growth approach and getting the ECB to issue Eurobonds in an attempt to support the Euro. However, the previous Greek PM Lucas Papademos’s comments that Greece may leave the Eurozone have added to the negative feeling currently being felt across the continent. The Sterling rate to buy Australian Dollars has ranged between 1.5993-1.6123 during today trading session so far.

The UK GDP Q1 revised figures came out at -0.3% which was worse than the previous estimate but this has not been reflected in the currency market. It seems to me that most investors are waiting to see what will happen with the summit before there is the next swing for the currency market. However, with the UK officially in recession and the Queen’s Jubilee next month with two additional bank holidays there is a risk to output for the UK which could in turn harm our GDP for Q2 and potentially keep us in recession. There is potential for the UK to perform further QE which is currently at £325bn and Christine Lagarde from the IMF suggested there is room to cut interest rates in the UK but she has also back the government’s austerity drive aimed at cutting the UK budget deficit.t

China’s May PMI for manufacturing has dropped to 48.7 the lowest reading in a year after April’s figure of 49.3 showing that economic growth in China is slowing down. the Chinese government have intervened recently by increasing public housing, investment and consumption but it is clear that there is a slowdown which could in turn weaken the Australian Dollar against the Pound. With Europe slowing down as well this could harm China’s growth via exports and which could also harm the Australian Dollar as it relies so heavily on China. I believe that the Australian Dollar Forecast will remain between 1.60-1.62 until we see what’s happening with the issues surrounding Europe.

For further information please do not hesitate to contact me Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ in the subject title for preferential exchange rates.

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UK Retail Sales Lower than Expectation

May 23, 2012   AUD to GBP, Australian Dollar Forecast, GBP to AUD

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UK Retail Sales were a lot lower than expectation for April and fell by 2.3% month on month mainly because of a record fall in petrol sales following the stampede for petrol during the end of March. Sales of fuel were 13.2% lower in April. Analysts had forecast a yearly rise of 1% but sales were down by 1.1% so Sterling has taken a small tumble. However, more importantly the exchange rate for buying Australian Dollars has improved again to a 6 month high of 1.6160. The reason why Sterling has stayed strong is down to the Bank of England Minutes which showed a vote of 8-1 against further Quantitative Easing.

yesterday IMF head Christine Lagarde suggested that the UK could cut interest rates to stimulate the UK economy and further QE could be possible. Clearly the Bank of England will make its own decision about how to control policy for the UK and with the minutes this was proved. She also commented about the problems in Greece and said the country has a lot more to do  to fix its ailing economy. Some analysts think that Greece will be forced out of the Eurozone but personally I believe that they will yet gain be bailed out as politically, socially and economically it would be disastrous to allow Greece to be removed. It could easily spread contagion to the other ‘PIGS’ or Europe in particular Spain which has already seen one of its banks Bankia being part nationalised. Lagarde went on to say the costs of Greece leaving the Euro could be so high that other member of the Eurozone may be prepared to pay more to keep them in the single currency. Today EU leaders meet in Brussels to discuss the problems currently affecting Greece and the single currency.

With the instability surrounding Greece and Europe investors have been turned off against moving money into Australian Dollars which in turn has seen the rate to buy Australian dollars with Sterling hit the highest exchange rate this year. June 17th is the date for the Greek elections so a positive result could see the Australian Dollar strengthen against both the Pound and US Dollar as confidence returns but I think over the next few weeks the next resistance level could be 1.6250 for GBPAUD.

For more up to date information please feel free to ask me a question Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘ADF’ in teh subject title for preferential exchange rates.

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