Tag Archives: fomc

Australian Dollar Remains Firm but for how long? (Tom Holian)

Tom Holian

The Australian Dollar has held firm over the weekend and in today’s trading session against the Pound after the fightback which took place during Friday’s trading. It does remain rather vulnerbale though as we go into later this week.

The Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday night their tapering plan and if it reins in more of its asset purchases as predicted we could see US Dollar strength and a sell off away from the Australian Dollar. If this happens we could see GBPAUD exchange rates improve later in the week.

One of the members of the Reserve Bank of Australia has said recently that the ‘Australian Dollar has not fallen enough’ even though it has moved by over 30% since its lowest point last year.

UK GDP figures are due tomorrow morning for the fourth quarter. The previous year on year data showed growth of 1.9% but I expect this to be greater as UK Retail Sales are at their highest level since 2004 and UK unemployment at its lowest level since 2008. This is all good news for the UK economy and with UK growth forecasts having been raised recently by the International Monetary Fund I would not be surprised to see further Sterling strength.

If you’re worried about the GDP and FOMC data releases want to save money compared to using your bank when buying currency then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD exchange rate forecast (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have nudged above 1.69, has the small window for AUD sellers been missed? For me I still see longer term strength for the pound and would expect the GBP/AUD rates to head back towards the mid 1.70’s in the coming weeks – for this reason I feel anyone selling AUD should consider their position whilst rates still sit below the 1.70 level.

Data to watch out for this week:

Tomorrow – US FOMC minutes. This will give clues as to what the FED has in store, particularly as far as ‘tapering’ of QE is concerned. The FED has previously indicated it will look at tapering should unemployment figures improve, and as figures haven’t been as positive of late this is the reason they have delayed tapering and a big reason as to why the AUD has strengthened in the past few weeks. For me the FED will still look at tapering (unlikely until next year) however any hint towards this in the minutes and I would expect the AUD to lose value.

Thursday – we have UK business confidence figures and UK Nationwide housing data. Recently UK data has been much better and and should this trend continue then again we could see some GBP strength Thursday morning.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss my opinions and get a full overview of the currency service we provide, including the contract types we can offer both private and corporate clients, then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

IMF output downgrade hinders the Aussie (Mike Vaughan)

Following a downgrade of global output by the International Monetary Fund the Australian Dollar has lost ground this afternoon following a strong start to the days session. For 2013, the IMF now expects global output to expand just 2.9 percent, down from its July estimate of 3.1 percent, making it the slowest year of growth since 2009. It predicted a modest pickup next year to 3.6 percent, below its July estimate of 3.8 percent and cited China as an economy in particular that should begin to slow, moving from a condition of investment to consumption.

With China the biggest net importer of Australian raw materials, this could have a major impact long term on the value of the Australian Dollar – certainly should the IMF predictions be correct.  This to me suggests the pound is likely to gain strength, particularly heading into 2013 and I for one would not be surprised to see 1.80 +

Should you be longer at a transfer shorter term watch out for Westpac Consumer confidence figures tonight, the US FOMC minutes tomorrow for clues on US tapering, and Australian unemployment figures dues out early Thursday morning.

To discuss the current market conditions and the currency service we provide then please contact the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Market volatility for the AUD continues. Data sets to watch out for…. (Mike Vaughan)

Australian dollar exchange rates are becoming increasingly more volatile and difficult to forecast. Following the dramatic losses the dollar experienced falling in excess of 20 cents in an 8 week period, we have then seen a recovery of just shy of 4% bringing GBP/AUD levels back down from 1.68 to 1.62 in a little over a week. This volatility appears to be continuing with the dollar weakening by just shy of 1% today against the pound and 0.7% against the Euro. As we head into the second part of the week I have outlined below the data sets to look out for should you have an interest in the Aussie.

– FED FOMC 19:00 BST – Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the FED’s meeting earlier this month. Will give further clues as to future policies for the FED and in particular the ‘tapering’ down of QE. This could have in impact on risk apetite and hence the value of the Aussie could take a hit.

– Unemployment rate 02:30 BST – expected to show a slight drop from 5.5% to 5.6% which would fall in line with some of the weaker data of late from Australia. Any deviation and expect further volatility tomorrow morning.

Should you have an upcoming exchange to arrange and you would like to run through the market in more detail then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk

As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have a number of contracts available to help clients avoid unwanted market volatility removing your exposure to any adverse market movement.

Whats in store for the AUD today? How to get the best from your money exchange…..

As we start what is almost certain to be another busy and volatile day on the money markets what factors should you be watching out for today should you have an interest in the Australian Dollar? Overnight Westpac released its latest consumer confidence figures which were  substantially down. Normally I would expect AUD weakness as a result, however we have actually seen some small gains against both the Pound and Euro indicating how out of favour these two currencies are currently. For me any gains from the pounds point of view will depend on whether the UK can avoid the triple dip recession. Indications from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well respected think tank, were certainly positive and suggest that the UK may just avoid recession by forecasting 0.1% growth for Q1 of 2013. It is certainly very finely balanced, however I am confident recession can be avoided and we may see a much needed boost for the pound as a result. Anyone with an interest in GBP/AUD should keep a keen eye on GDP released on the 25th April, a key day in my view.

Shorter term look out for Australian employment data overnight tonight, forecast to stay at 5.4% month on month, any deviation form the expected could cause volatility overnight. Also watch out for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) equivalent of the MPC in the US, as they will release their minutes from the Federal Reserves last interest rate meeting. This can influence investors risk appetite depending on the rhetoric from the minutes and with the AUD a favourite for currency investors it may cause market fluctuation for the AUD following its release at 19:00 BST.

To discuss the market trends and current data that might affect your particular currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 725353. I work for one of the UK’s longest standing independent brokers I am very confident I can undercut any price you have been offered. Should you wish to test the service or discuss the contracts we have available then please email me with a brief description of your current trade and I will happily provide you with a live quote. I can be reached by email on mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBPAUD Exchange rates hold firm at 1.58

Sterling has remained strong against the Australian Dollar over the last few days and I think the next movement will be following the release of US Non-farm Payroll data due out at 130pm UK time. The recent interest rate cut and 3.5 year high of the country’s trade deficit has seen the AUD weaken to its lowest level in a few weeks.

Last night’s FOMC minutes (US data) didn’t throw up any surprises so again the currency markets are holding their breath in anticipation of the next move. Indeed, the general consensus is that US interest rates will stay the same until 2015. The predictions for the non-farm payroll data this afternoon is for a creation of 113,000 new jobs so if we see an improvement we could see a sharp sell off from Australian Dollars as funds flow back into the safe haven of the US Dollar. If however we see less jobs we could see the GBPAUD exchange rate drop from its recent highs.

If you have a currency requirement coming up soon and want to find out more about transferring currency at commercial levels of exchange better than bank rates then feel free to contact me Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Coming this weekend there is a possibility that we might see a bailout for Spain which could lead to stability for the Euro zone and more risk appetite developing for the Australian Dollar. For up to date information contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

FOMC and impact on the Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The Australian Dollar has strengthened today in the run up to the FOMC’s decision about whether or not to go ahead with further stimulus otherwise known as Operation Twist. The FOMC has been meeting for the past two days and is due to announce the decision tonight at 615pm UK time. The main aim of Operation Twist is to reduce long term interest rates and to encourage borrowing and spending in order to boost the economy. My personal opinion is that if the US decides to proceed with further stimulus we could see the GBPAUD exchange rate drop to as low as 1.53 tomorrow as investors look towards riskier currencies again. The Euro has weakened prior to the meeting but the Aussie has remained stable between 1.54-1.55. With the G20 summit creating some stability in the global markets and Greece now having formed a coalition government this morning we could see the Aussie strengthen.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia hinting that they will not be cutting the cash rate at its July meeting this could also be another reason why there’s been a boost for the AUD. I think Operation Twist has been priced in so it’s unlikely that there will be a large movement but potentially a small improvement nonetheless. For further information please feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk quoting ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ for preferential exchange rates.