Tag Archives: GBP AUD

GBP to AUD Strength – Brexit Imminent (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has rallied higher with rates for the GBP vs AUD pair sitting above 1.86. Brexit continues to dictate the direction of travel for GBP AUD and the more optimistic mood on reaching a deal is helping to support the pound. The markets have begun pricing in the prospect of a deal being reached by 29th March and failing that there is a chance that an extension of Article 50 may be required. Either outcome gives more certainty in the markets as to what the economic picture looks like for the next 18 months.

What is important to highlight is that the chances of a no deal Brexit are looking less likely which is seen as positive for sterling exchange rates. Meetings between Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox and their EU counterparts resume today seeking to find legally binding changes to the contentious Irish backstop. Any breakthroughs this week could help lift the pound higher although to date there haven’t been any offerings from the EU to suggest a compromise is in the offing.

The hugely important meaningful vote is to be held before 14th March and the outcome should present considerable volatility for GBP to AUD. If the government is unable to push the vote through then the pound faces another uncertain two consecutive days as more votes will be held in parliament. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be speaking later today and any negative comments which he is known for especially when it comes to Brexit could see the pound come under pressure.

The Australian dollar could be set for a big boost in the weeks ahead depending on how the ongoing trade talks between the US and China unfold. Reports have emerged that the two sides are close to making a deal which should be seen as positive for the commodity currencies including the Australian dollar. A future US trade deal which will remove all of the already imposed tariffs and barriers to trade should be seen as welcome news for the global economy. In turn this bodes well for the Australian dollar due to the large volume of exports of its commodities. When the global economy performs in theory so should the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how these events have a direct impact on your own currency transfer then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to assist.

GBP to AUD Rates before Key House of Commons Vote on Tuesday (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has risen over the last week with rates for the GBP to AUD pair sitting above 1.83. The pound has benefited considerably from the markets beginning to feel more optimistic that a deal between Britain and the EU will be reached whilst the prospect of a no deal has been diminishing, for the time being.

With the Australian markets closed today for Australia day, tomorrow will be crucial in determining where rates for GBP vs AUD head next. Key parliamentary votes will be held in the House of Commons at 7pm tomorrow and it will be for the Speaker John Bercow to select which of the amendments the House will vote on. There are two amendments in particular and whether they are selected could help shape the direction for travel for GBP to AUD with currency volatility to be expected.

The Nicholas Boles / Yvette Copper amendment seeks to delay Article 50 in the event that a deal cannot be reached. It effectively removes no deal from the table as we approach 29th March. The other amendment which appears to have the support of government is the Graham Brady amendment which seeks to remove the controversial Irish backstop and replace it with alternative methods should an agreement on future trade not be reached.

These amendments are hugely important as they will help determine the path of Brexit and where it ultimately ends up which is of huge interest in the currency markets. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars will likely see a big market reaction on the outcome of tomorrows vote and could be presented with a good opportunity.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be making a speech later today which could create some volatility for the pound ahead of such an important day tomorrow. Tomorrow sees business conditions data down under from National Australia Bank whilst Wednesdays’ Consumer Price Index inflation data could also help direct the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Rates Move Higher Towards 1.80 (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has moved higher towards 1.80 for the GBP AUD pair having found support after the historical vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday this week. UK Prime Minister Theresa May was able to win the vote of no confidence in the government which took place last night having been put forward by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. The Brexit negotiations continue to be the main driver for GBP to AUD and the markets now await a statement from the British prime Minister on Monday having lost her vote by a staggering 230 votes.

The pound has found some support as it is becoming increasingly clear that there is not a majority in the house of Commons for a no deal Brexit, even though the default option in the event of a no deal is enshrined in law. The markets at least appear to be feel more relaxed that a no deal is not a likely outcome anymore and this is helping to support the price of sterling. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see a hugely volatile period in these coming weeks ahead of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU 29th March 2019.

UK retail sales date are released tomorrow where a small drop is expected although the headline figure should nonetheless look healthy taking into account spending on the high street over the festive period. Next week sees important unemployment data which also includes the wage growth numbers, something the Bank of England monitors very closely to determine its monetary policy.

The Australian dollar meanwhile is also struggling as continuing concerns over global growth hamper AUD to GBP. With a serious trade war still yet unresolved between the US and China and evidence of a downturn in the global economy the Australian dollar could be set for some tough times ahead. There are talks of China looking to stimulate their economy through injections of cash and also tax cuts which could help see a boost of the Australian dollar although these measures may take some time to have any effect.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to make the most of any opportunities when transferring funds then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Rate Weakens ahead of Key Brexit Vote on Tuesday (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have fallen lower after what was a good rally in the GBP AUD pair. Rates for GBP vs AUD are currently sitting below 1.78 for the pair.

Brexit continues to dictate the direction of travel for the pound and yesterday’s performance in the House of Commons only highlights the uncertainty that the pound faces. The meaningful vote in parliament which is being debated this week will take place on Tuesday 15th January and high volatility for the pound to Australian dollar is expected in the run up to and after this event.

The screws were turned on UK Prime Minster Theresa May yesterday after the government lost an important vote in the House of Commons. An amendment put forward by Dominic Grieve was controversially allowed to be voted on despite the speaker John Bercow receiving advice that it should not be allowed. There could now be some implications from this government defeat adding another layer of uncertainty in the Brexit debate.

The pound is taking losses against all of the major currencies this morning and the markets may now be beginning to price in the prospect of another general election in the UK or possibly an extension of Article 50 which could even include another referendum. There is also talk of cross party support to try and find a compromise on Brexit which could result in gains for the pound. It is the prospect of a no deal Brexit though which is still a strong possibility and is preventing the pound from jumping much higher against the Australian dollar.

Economic data down under is light as we end this week although UK Gross Domestic product numbers released tomorrow could result in some market reaction for the pound to Australian dollar rate of exchange. Chinese trade balance data released on Monday will be particularly important as the markets evaluate how much of a negative impact the trade wars are having on the Chinese economy. There are real concerns over the performance of the Chinese economy at the moment and this has a knock on effect on the Australian dollar. Those with pending requirements for buying or selling Australian dollars face a very volatile week ahead with the trade data and of course the vote in the British parliament which the government at the time of writing is expected to lose.

For assistance in making transfers at excellent commercial rates of exchange in either direction then please feel free to contact me James. My email address is jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates Rally after Weaker Australian Unemployment Data (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have rallied higher this week with rates for the GBP AUD pair breaking over 1.78 and creating a good short term window of opportunity for those looking to buy Australian dollars. Australian unemployment data released yesterday arrived weaker than expected with a small rise in the headline number.

Unemployment down under now sits at 5.1% which is slightly worse than the 5% that was expected, something that will be picked up on by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank has hinted that interest rates may need to rise in 2019 although the economic data will very much dictate whether or not this happens. Any signs of a slowdown will almost certainly put the Reserve Bank of Australia on the defensive which could result in Australian dollar weakness.

GBP vs AUD on the whole is on a weaker footing as result of the ongoing Brexit uncertainty in the UK. However the deadline of 29th March 2019 is fast approaching and a parliamentary vote to be held 14th January 2019 will dictate the direction of travel for the pound. If Theresa May finds herself able to get this deal through parliament then the pound could see some major gains. The reality at the moment is that this is highly unlikely and an uncertain period could like ahead. With no concessions being offered by the EU the deal is likely to be voted down over concerns for the Irish backstop which currently is not time limited.

The other big factor for GBP vs AUD is what happens between the US and China with regards future trade. Tensions are fraught at the moment with allegations of corporate espionage in the technology sector. Although further tariffs on Chinese goods have been paused there is every chance that all of China’s goods could face US trade tariffs, something that will be of concern for the Australian dollar. Any slowdown in global growth could see problems for the Australian economy which may be adversely affected.

For more information on dollar exchange rates and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar to Pound Rates Strengthen on Hope of Positive G20 Summit (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have fallen lower to below 1.75 for the GBP AUD pair as Brexit uncertainty remains the biggest threat to the pound ahead of the parliamentary meaningful vote around the 12th December. There are reported 100 Conservative MP’s who have signalled that they will vote against the Prime Minister which leaves an even more uncertain period ahead. If the Prime Minister is unable to push forward with her Brexit deal then there are a number of different outcomes. A second vote in the House of Commons is perhaps the most likely outcome although a change of Prime Minister, a second referendum, a no deal Brexit or a Norway style trade deal cannot be ruled out.

The EU have stated that this is the best deal the UK will receive so in the event that Theresa May is unable to secure a better deal then the prospect of no deal in my view is starting to look much more likely to happen. The Bank of England has made worst case scenario predictions that there could be a crash in the pound of up to 25% which is making the price of sterling extremely sensitive to political developments in the UK.

The Australian dollar could also see a substantial boost if there is a breakthrough or at least a statement of intent for the US and China to reduce tariffs on trade and come to a future trade agreement. The Australian dollar could be big beneficiary if progress is made at the G20 summit this weekend where a slot has been put aside for US China talks. We’re not there yet and US President Donald Trump has been threatening more tariffs this week so it remains to be seen how constructive these talks will be if talks don’t well and tariffs are imposed on all Chinese goods then the Aussie could weaken considerably lower as those concerns grown on the future of global growth.

For more information on the Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance on making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – GBP AUD Crashes after Brexit Secretary Resigns (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have crashed dramatically with rates falling by more than 2% to the lows of 1.75/1.76 after a brutal day in British politics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reached an agreement with the EU over the draft withdrawal agreement but support from her cabinet is not unanimous. So far and in a single day there were seven government resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominc Raab which sent the pound tumbling. GBP to AUD rates now face yet another volatile day as the markets prepare for more government resignations and a possible leadership challenge.

Brexit supporter and chair of the backbench European Research Group has called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and believes that enough letters to the 1922 Committee will be reached in the comings days to trigger a vote of no confidence. The Prime Minister must also put in place a new Brexit Secretary and it has been reported that Environment Secretary Michael Gove has turned down the offer. Where that leaves Michael Gove is less clear and many are expecting a resignation which would add more pressure on Theresa May and further weakness for the GBP to AUD pair. The outlook is so uncertain in British politics that there is room for further weakness for the pound against the Australian dollar in the short term.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has been boosted after strong employment data down under pointing to health consumer spending. A further 42,300 jobs were created in October which was significantly higher than the September reading. This will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia which has held concerns over weak wage growth and low inflation. The belief is that an improving labour market will feed through to higher wages which will allow the central bank to start raising interest rates. This is starting to look likely for 2019 with a good chance we may see the first rate hike in August next year.

There are likely to be major movements in these coming days. For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Fall Below 1.80 (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen lower against the Australian dollar with rates for the GBP AUD pair falling below 1.80 once again. What happens in the US in these coming weeks and months is likely to have a big impact on the Australian dollar. With the US midterm elections out of the way it will be interesting to see how investors react to the news and if the results have an impact on whether he is able to implement his planned policies of increased expenditure in the US.

More importantly the future trade policy from the White house especially with China will be a major driver for GBP AUD rates. There have been noises that a meeting between China and the US could bear fruits for a future trade deal. Investors are concerned that an escalating trade war could have a negative impact on the Australian dollar as funds move to the safety of the US dollar. If an agreement can be reached though then this should benefit the Australian dollar going forward as confidence is restored in the commodity currency.

The Brexit negotiations have advanced in recent weeks which has helped boost the pound against the Australian dollar. Reports are filtering through in the media that we could be days away from a Brexit deal. Expect a few more weeks of heightened volatility though as any deal will have to be put before parliament which could make for a bumpy ride.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet this evening and any clues as to when the central bank next raises interest rates is likely to see added volatility for the dollar. The US Federal Reserve are still set to hike interest rates again this year and a meeting is being held this evening. The markets are expecting a rate hike to come in December although anything is possible this evening. As the differential widens between US interest rates and rates down under there is likely to be more weakness for the Australian dollar.

For assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Breaks 2 Year High (James Lovick)

The pound has made good gains against the Australian dollar this with rates for the GBP AUD pair back over 1.85. Rates for GBP AUD have now broken above a two year high creating a good opportunity for those looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound is receiving some mixed signals on Brexit although the general consensus is that a deal is within sight.

The EU are expected to offer the UK a proposal which should allow for much of the Chequers proposal being championed by Prime Minister Theresa May. It has been reported that something around 30-40% of her proposals will be granted in a deal but the stumbling block of the Irish border appears to remain. A new stumbling block has appeared in the form of the political declaration that will be made with the withdrawal agreement. Theresa May is asking for a precise agreement on frictionless trade, something the EU is reluctant to agree to. Expect considerable market volatility and opportunity as new developments unfold over Brexit.

The Australian dollar has had some of its confidence dented this week as events in China give cause for concern for global growth. The Peoples Bank of China has intervened to try and stimulate growth in China by lowering finance costs which should encourage growth. The markets are taking this as a sign that China is noticeably concerned about the prospect of a slowdown in China which is seeing funds move out of the Australian dollar. There has been a clear flight to safety away from emerging markets back to the safety of the dollar which could see further falls in the Australian dollar if the trend continues.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in timing your exchange at the best exchange rates then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD – Brexit Final Stages (James Lovick)

The pound has pushed higher against the Australian dollar with levels breaking over 1.83 for the GBP AUD pair.

Now that the conservative party conference is out of the way and the “Dancing Queen” Prime Minister reiterated her vision of leaving the EU, the conversation for these coming weeks will be dominated by Brexit. With movement in negotiations expected by the time of the next EU summit this month it will be a hugely interesting and volatile period for sterling exchange rates.

Ultimately the direction of the price of sterling will be dictated by the terms of Brexit and whether or not there is a deal. Whilst the expectation is that some sort of a deal will be reached the markets do not yet appear convinced this is the case. With growing support for a Canada style type trade deal which is supported by the likes of Boris Johnson there could be some major changes yet to play out in this negotiation. This is likely to be one of the most volatile periods ahead for GBP AUD and there are likely to be opportunities for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. Similarly if the negotiations approach a no deal scenario then those looking to sell Australian dollars could see some better rates on the horizon.

The trade wars between the US and China continue to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar and it may only be a matter of time before new tariffs are introduced. Any escalation on this front is likely to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar due to its large volume of exports which go to China. A global slowdown would also carry inherent risk for the Aussie. The commodity currencies generally fare less well in time of global economic uncertainty.

For assistance in making transfers and help with the timing of an exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk