Tag Archives: GBP AUD

GBP AUD Breaks 2 Year High (James Lovick)

The pound has made good gains against the Australian dollar this with rates for the GBP AUD pair back over 1.85. Rates for GBP AUD have now broken above a two year high creating a good opportunity for those looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound is receiving some mixed signals on Brexit although the general consensus is that a deal is within sight.

The EU are expected to offer the UK a proposal which should allow for much of the Chequers proposal being championed by Prime Minister Theresa May. It has been reported that something around 30-40% of her proposals will be granted in a deal but the stumbling block of the Irish border appears to remain. A new stumbling block has appeared in the form of the political declaration that will be made with the withdrawal agreement. Theresa May is asking for a precise agreement on frictionless trade, something the EU is reluctant to agree to. Expect considerable market volatility and opportunity as new developments unfold over Brexit.

The Australian dollar has had some of its confidence dented this week as events in China give cause for concern for global growth. The Peoples Bank of China has intervened to try and stimulate growth in China by lowering finance costs which should encourage growth. The markets are taking this as a sign that China is noticeably concerned about the prospect of a slowdown in China which is seeing funds move out of the Australian dollar. There has been a clear flight to safety away from emerging markets back to the safety of the dollar which could see further falls in the Australian dollar if the trend continues.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in timing your exchange at the best exchange rates then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD – Brexit Final Stages (James Lovick)

The pound has pushed higher against the Australian dollar with levels breaking over 1.83 for the GBP AUD pair.

Now that the conservative party conference is out of the way and the “Dancing Queen” Prime Minister reiterated her vision of leaving the EU, the conversation for these coming weeks will be dominated by Brexit. With movement in negotiations expected by the time of the next EU summit this month it will be a hugely interesting and volatile period for sterling exchange rates.

Ultimately the direction of the price of sterling will be dictated by the terms of Brexit and whether or not there is a deal. Whilst the expectation is that some sort of a deal will be reached the markets do not yet appear convinced this is the case. With growing support for a Canada style type trade deal which is supported by the likes of Boris Johnson there could be some major changes yet to play out in this negotiation. This is likely to be one of the most volatile periods ahead for GBP AUD and there are likely to be opportunities for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. Similarly if the negotiations approach a no deal scenario then those looking to sell Australian dollars could see some better rates on the horizon.

The trade wars between the US and China continue to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar and it may only be a matter of time before new tariffs are introduced. Any escalation on this front is likely to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar due to its large volume of exports which go to China. A global slowdown would also carry inherent risk for the Aussie. The commodity currencies generally fare less well in time of global economic uncertainty.

For assistance in making transfers and help with the timing of an exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD ahead of Conservative Party Conference (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under a degree of pressure of late as trade war concerns continue to weigh heavy on the Aussie. The cooling property market down under with considerable falls seen in both Sydney and Melbourne are also attracting concerns from the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the markets are not expecting a property market crash bearing in mind the falls in house prices appear to be coming from two cities, the central bank will nonetheless be in no hurry to raise interest rates which could potentially slow growth.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting at 1.8140 and the two biggest drivers for the pair will be Brexit and the ongoing US trade war with China. The Australian dollar is negatively impacted by the global uncertainty for a slowdown in global growth especially considering that China is such a major export market for Australia.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May was in New York yesterday speaking on Brexit as she tried to reassure business that a deal between Britain and the EU will be reached.

UK Gross Domestic Product figures are released tomorrow morning although the central focus in my opinion will be on the Conservative party conference this weekend. With so much to negotiate in these Brexit negotiations and the difficult task that Theresa May has in finding a deal that will work for the EU but also one that she can get through in parliament then there is considerable risk for the pound over these next two months.

An agreement is expected to be found although any clues as to whether the Chequers deal will fly or if another Canada type trade agreement takes preference will inevitably have a direct impact on the price of sterling exchange rates. With splits in the cabinet over a softer or harder Brexit then this conference in my opinion could give new direction for the price of sterling.

For assistance in transferring Australian dollars at the best exchange rates then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD exchange rates – Brexit and trade wars will be the main drivers in my opinion

So far the Pound has had a fairly quiet start to the trading week but all eyes will be on the EU summit today in Salzburg, it is during this conference that we will expect Brexit to be discussed in more detail and this is the type of situation where snippets of news and rumours may hit the wires at any time, leading to Sterling volatility. This volatility may create good buying or selling opportunities depending on the news so if you have a fairly imminent currency exchange to carry out it is well worth contacting me today so that I can keep you fully aware of the latest market movements,

There are officially 191 days to go until Brexit will more than likely be official, and there will be plenty of market movement from now until the lead up to March 2019.

There are plans for a further summit in October and then an extraordinary EU summit is pencilled in for November, and this is where at present we would expect a final deal to be thrashed out.

Towards the end of this month we also have the Conservative party conference on 30th September which may also be one to watch, with Theresa May still seemingly under a little pressure any further negative news surrounding her position may weaken Sterling exchange rates.

In terms of economic data to come out this week, we have Retail Sales figures tomorrow morning at 09:30am and analysts expectations are for a slight drop off in the Retail sector so do be cautious of this release tomorrow if your currency requirement is imminent.

Personally I still feel that Brexit news is going to be key to where the Pound heads next and unfortunately the unpredictable nature of these discussions and the fact that you just do not know which way this is going to head next makes it extremely difficult to know where Sterling exchange rates will be in the coming weeks.

On the Australian Dollar side we have Donald Trump and trade wars that are still very much impacting global attitude to risk, when Trump and China lock horns you tend to see Australian Dollar weakness and when things start to settle the Australian Dollar is fighting back.

The rest of this week is quiet for economic data that may impact the Australian Dollar so I feel that most movements will be based on attitude to risk and political issues.

If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction I feel that there is more chance of GBP/AUD going up in the next few days than coming down.

Should you not be of a gambling nature and you want to remove the risk or your currency exchange costing a lot more than you had budgeted for then the sensible option may be to look into booking something sooner rather than later as we enter the final stages of Brexit talks. There are a number of contract options that we have available to protect you including a forward contract, stop loss or limit order. If you would like further information on any of theses contract types, or you would like to discuss a potential exchange in more detail with one of our brokers here then please feel free to call our trading floor on (+441494 725353) or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

What can we expect this week for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The week ahead for the Australian dollar looks set to be dominated by continuing news on the likelihood of future interest rate hikes down under. Last week saw a mixed bag of data as investors weighed up the conflicting signals and the overall outlook on the currency pairing. This was underscored by a very positive unemployment report which helped the Aussie to rise against its counterparts. Good news on the Australian dollar has however been tempered by the worrying prospect of fresh economic tariffs from Trump on China, Australia’s main trading partner.

The main economic news this week will be the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and also the House Price Index released this evening. Later in the week we will also see the the RBA Bulletin and also a speech by Assistant Governor Christopher Kent. It was a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Bullock last week which saw movement on the rates as he highlighted growing household debt.

Clients with a currency transfer involving the Australian dollar could now face a range of events to move the rates, it does appear the factors which have weakened the Aussie in recent weeks, are set to remain. Global concerns over Trade Wars which are set to negatively impact China will weigh on economic sentiment and this will influence the Australian dollar.

If you have a transfer to consider buying Australian dollars with pounds there is also the EU Summit which is coming up which could see a volatile week on GBPAUD exchanges. Brexit continues to be the main driver on the pound and this information could see some volatility on the pair.

If you have a transfer to make involving the Australian dollar, we are in business to offer assistance with the timing and the planning of any currency transfers. For more information at no obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

Australian Dollar Boosted on Strong Growth Report (James Lovick)

Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers released yesterday have helped support the Australian dollar after a strong number was produced. GDP rose by 0.9% which was higher than expected due to higher consumer spending which is lending support to the dollar. On an annual basis the figures have highlighted the fastest growth since 2012. Whilst the data presents a positive outlook the implications of the current trade wars are unlikely to have yet been realised.

Chinese import and export data this weekend could see a big market reaction for the Australian dollar. With heavy trade tariffs imposed on US and Chinese imports there are fears this could filter through into the wider global economy. Any signs that China’s economy is slowing down could see the Aussie come under renewed pressure. The trade wars between these two superpowers show no signs of easing at this time and so the outlook for the Aussie looks less stable. There is a high chance this could hamper the Aussie going forward with room for a sizeable drop.

GBP AUD

Rates for GBP AUD have seen a boost higher this week with rates jumping higher to 1.80 for the pair. In fact the pair has risen by around 7 cents since the beginning of August creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound was boosted against the Australian dollar yesterday on reports that Germany and the UK were softening their stances with regards wording for the withdrawal agreement although this proved short lived.

Politics and Brexit are the number on driving force for GBP AUD and now that parliament has resumed after the summer recess then these next few months will be paramount in the future direction for the pair. I am expecting a hugely volatile few months and with this come opportunity for buyers and sellers alike.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to make the most of any market movement when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Falls Lower against Australian Dollar – Brexit Jitters (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen even lower against the Australian dollar with rates briefly falling below 1.73 for the GBP AUD pair. The Australian dollar outlook isn’t looking that great at the moment with the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Only yesterday the US agreed a further 25% tariff on Chinese imports worth $60 billion. China is likely to retaliate further and it has even been reported that President Donald Trump is considering putting tariffs on everything the US imports from China which equates to about $500 billion. Already the Chinese stock markets are taking the brunt of this and if China does move into a downturn then this could end up harming the Australian dollar. Australia’s major export iron ore is sent to China in large volumes for steel production and so any global slowdown could see demand for this commodity fall sharply proving negative for the Aussie as a commodity currency.

The Reserve bank of Australia will be releasing the Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow which could offer some more clues as to when then the central bank may look to raise interest rates again. Although the next move is anticipated to be upwards the next hike is likely to be someway off yet.

Despite the above the pound has still managed to fall considerably lower against the Australian dollar this week although this is down to Brexit uncertainty in the UK following comments from both Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Trade Secretary Liam Fox. Both have suggested there is a strong likelihood of a no deal Brexit which is spooking the markets and seeing the pound tumble. Until clarity is offered which is not likely to come until after the summer parliamentary recess the pound could see further losses. If the UK & EU cannot agree in the coming months on a withdrawal agreement then sterling is likely to fall lower.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to achieve the best rates for buying or selling dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Boosted on Stronger Retail Sales (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has been boosted following a jump higher in Australian retail sales which saw the best performance in over a year. The better data signals a buoyant consumer market which should lend support to the Australian economy. The numbers jumped 1.2% for the last quarter which is considerably higher than the 0.8% that was expected and welcome news in that Australia has also suffered with weak wage growth which has been squeezing pockets down under.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on Tuesday to discuss interest rates although there is unlikely to be any change at this meeting. Interest rates are currently set at 1.5% and whilst no change is expected any comments following the meeting from RBA Governor Philip Lowe could see a market reaction for the Aussie.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently hovering around 1.75 for the pair and testing the lower levels seen in its recent range. Much of the slide has stemmed from the uncertainty in the UK over Brexit in recent weeks. Despite an interest rate increase last week from the Bank of England the pound has actually fallen after Governor Mark Carney suggested that the chance of a no deal Brexit was uncomfortably high. The pound has been trading on the back foot following on from his comments which have made the markets uneasy hearing this from the top. Until clarity is offered the pound is likely to remain under pressure against the Aussie. There is currently a good opportunity to sell Australian dollars for pounds and any additional uncertainty on Brexit could see the pound weaken further. British politics have gone into sleep mode with the summer parliamentary recess but expect more volatility for the pound towards the end of the month.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the best rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Forecast – Trump Agrees Zero Tariffs with EU (James Lovick)

The pound has made a small recovery against the Australian dollar with rates back over 1.77 for the GBP AUD pair. The ongoing theme for the Australian dollar in recent weeks has been the trade war story which has stemmed from trade policy decisions made by US President Donald Trump. The latest in the story is that the President has now agreed with the EU tariff free trade between the US and EU. Whilst this does not directly have an impact on the Australian economy it does signal a change in tact by President Trump and could suggest there is light at the end of the tunnel in this escalation of trade tariffs with China. The concern for the Aussie is that if there is a global trade war then the commodity currencies could suffer so any softening in trade policy coming out of the US could actually be seen as good for the Australian dollar.

Economic data from down under has been stronger in this last month with retail sales and consumer confidence performing better than expected. The recent employment data was strong and highlighted a buoyant workforce which has also proved beneficial for the Australian dollar.

Now that the British parliament has ended for the summer recess there are unlikely to be any major developments on Brexit until the end of August or early September. The pound has been left on a weaker footing after the high profile resignations in government and some concern over the dreaded no deal scenario. Clients looking to buy Australian dollars could find some better opportunities on the horizon if a deal can be reached on Brexit, but we are still probably a few months away from such an outcome.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars at the best rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Poised for Volatility after US Tariffs are Enforced (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is now set for a volatile period after US trade tariffs on Chinese goods kicked in this morning as planned. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is likely to be sensitive to any further escalations in these trade wars and the dollar could come under considerable pressure. $34 billion worth of tariffs have been imposed as of today and China has already reciprocated. US President Donald Trump has signalled his intent to increase these tariffs to as much as a staggering $450 billion on Chinese products if China retaliated.

It will now be interesting to see the response from the US after this retaliation and where this heads next. The EU has also been embroiled into these trade disputes highlighting how big an issue this all is. If global economic growth falls in the future then the Australian dollar is likely to be one of the hardest hit.

GBP AUD

Today marks a hugely important today for those clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. British Prime Minister Theresa’s May will be holding a cabinet meeting at Chequers to finalise the detail on Brexit and how close Britain will be aligned to the EU. There has been much disagreement within her cabinet and today should give guidance as to whether Britain will pursue a soft or a hard Brexit. The pound is likely to react accordingly and this meeting does have the potential to cause some fireworks.

No details have yet been released but the outcome of today’s meeting will form the basis for a white paper on Brexit. A softer Brexit that maintains trade and one that is likely to be agreed by the EU is likely to see the pound rally. However any resignations or objections from within government could create even more uncertainty for sterling exchange rates. Clients would be wise to plan around this event as we could finally be at the tipping point.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers at the opportune time then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk