Tag Archives: GBP AUD

Australian Dollar Outlook Improves (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar could be set for a stronger period ahead following a series of better economic data helping support the Aussie. Unemployment data released this week arrived better than expected at 5.4% against consensus of 5.5% proving beneficial for the dollar. There is hope that the improvement in the labour market should start to feed through into higher wage growth which is something the Reserve Bank of Australian have been waiting for. The Aussie was also boosted on the back of higher consumer inflation expectations which are pointing to higher prices down under going forward. The data suggests that Australians expect prices for goods and services to climb higher and this is yet another key criteria the RBA are monitoring before any decision is made on potentially raising interest rates. Looking forward the dollar could see a better period ahead and clients looking to sell Australian dollars may see a good window to convert within the next couple of months.

Next week sees the RBA minutes for the meeting earlier this month and may offer clues as to the central banks thinking. Any suggesting the conversation is moving towards raising rates would be seen as good for the Aussie.

The US are widely tipped to impose more trade tariffs on China imminently and this could happen as soon as today. Australia for the moment appear to be relatively protected for this action due to the strong trade ties it has with China.

GBP AUD

There are two major drivers for the GBP AUD pair at present. Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars should be aware of the Bank of England meeting next week as any change of tact from Governor Mark Carney could see the pound react. Any suggestion a rate hike could happen in August is likely to see rates for GBP AUD rally. Perhaps more importantly the Brexit withdrawal bill goes back to the House of Lords on Monday after there has been some disagreement in government as to the final wording of the text. This could prove tricky for the Prime Minister and any political tensions here could see the pound come under pressure. My long term view of GBP AUD is for considerable strength so sellers may wish to strike whilst the opportunity is still there.

For more information and guidance on Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the right time then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar after New Trump Tariffs (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar looks set for another volatile period after the announcement this afternoon for US tariffs to be imposed against the EU, Canada and Mexico. US President Donald Trump is moving forward with tariffs on steel and aluminium imports which could result in a trade war across the globe. The Australian dollar could see a period of weakness if this outcome materialises as the Aussie is a higher risk currency and generally performs worse in times of global uncertainty. Things could escalate quickly as the EU have made clear it will look to apply tariffs on American brands such as bourbon whiskey and Levi’s jeans. The US tariffs will take effect at midnight this evening so there could be some considerable volatility when the Australian markets open and a particularly volatile end to the week.

The Aussie did come under added pressure at the start of the week following developments in Italy which could have seen fresh elections. The outlook in Italy has improved throughout the week although it wouldn’t take much to see tension rise and an anti-establishment push from the two new parties seeking to form a government. Expect more uncertainty for EUR AUD on the back of developments in Italy.

Clients with a GBP AUD requirement should pay very close attention to what is happening in the UK with the ongoing Brexit. Whilst we may have been talking about it for over two years the process is about to become very interesting in these coming weeks as a vote on the Brexit withdrawal bill in the House of Commons approaches. There are whispers of a potential vote of no confidence in the government if UK Prime Minister Theresa May is defeated and this scenario could see major volatility for GBP AUD exchange rates. Clients looking to buy Australian dollars should plan around this event to avoid disappointment.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Wobbles on Geopolitical Concerns – US / North Korea (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has seen another wobble after that has been a good performance from the Aussie over the last month. The Aussie has slipped lower on the back of developments stemming from both China and North Korea. The trade war between the US and China appeared to be cooling off which was working in the commodity currency’s favour although Trump was reported to have said that “There is no deal” signalling that there might not be an agreement on how to reduce the size of the US deficit with China.

There are mixed signals coming out of the US on this important matter and there did appear to be progress up until recently. The Australian dollar is directly impacted by these events as China is Australia’s largest export market and a slowdown in the global economy is generally seen as bad for the Aussie.

It’s not just the US China trade battle to consider though, US President Donald Trump has indicated the summit with North Korea may not happen with a strong chance that it won’t work out. These geopolitical concerns continue to have a negative impact on the Aussie so expect more volatility for AUD exchange rates in the coming weeks.

Selling Australian Dollars for Pounds?

Those clients with pending requirements should monitor developments in Britain over these coming weeks. I have posted previously that the House of Commons will shortly vote on the Brexit withdrawal bill that has been put forward by the House of Lords with a series of amendments. UK Prime Minster Theresa may does not have a sufficient majority to push through her vision of Brexit and if the amendments are defeated in the Commons then there could be a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. This could create considerable volatility for the pound on the back of political uncertainty. It could also end up in a general election.

Clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see some better opportunities around the corner although it is my view the Prime Minister may have a shot at putting pressure on other politicians who represent Leave backing areas of the country. If she is able to win votes from Labour politicians then she could sail through with her Brexit which could see the pound rally on renewed confidence. Clients would be wise to plan around this event in these coming weeks as there is a huge amount at stake on how this ends up for GBP AUD.

To discuss your currency requirement and for assistance to achieve the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Gains Considerably against the Pound after Bank of England Holds Interest Rates (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is seeing a volatile time and is continuing to come under renewed pressure having fallen against all of the major currencies yesterday. The Australian dollar has now dropped to the lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017. The reason for the most recent slide is really down to geopolitical concerns over the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. With the perceived risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East this is proving negative for the Australian dollar.

The US dollar is strengthening as one would expect in uncertain times especially as the US dollar remains a safe haven currency. The flip side is that the perceive riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar do not perform as well with funds moving out of Australia. The outlook for retail sales in Australia is not looking too bright at the moment either which is also keeping the dollar at bay.

GBP AUD

The Bank of England held interest rates today as widely expected although the pound has fallen dramatically against the Australian dollar today with rates dropping below 1.80 for the GBP AUD pair. There is currently an excellent opportunity for those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds. The Bank of England have cited Brexit uncertainty as reason not to hike after a poor run of economic data.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds could see some better opportunities to come although Brexit uncertainty could still prove to a burden for the price of sterling. Any wobbles here in the negotiations could see a drop for sterling although it must be said that the outlook on Brexit is starting to look considerably better and negotiations are now in the third and final round.

Over the water the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates last night but was interesting to hear is that the new Governor Adrian Orr signalled no desire to raise interest rates. In fact he cited inflation as too low and that it would need to rise to 2% before the central bank considered raising interest rates, something the bank does not foresee happening until late 2019. There are some similarities between the New Zealand and Australian economies as they are both commodity currencies and in my view this is a signal that Australia too is unlikely to hike any time soon. With no rate hikes on the horizon down under this is likely to be negative for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to time your own transfer when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Exchange Rates Slide on Weaker Global Economic Outlook (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is under further pressure at present after the growth outlook for Australia is starting to be cut. Commonwealth Bank for one has lowered its growth forecast based on a slowing global economy. We have already seen the Aussie come under pressure since the introduction of trade tariffs imposed by the US and China. These decisions by these nations are now starting to feed through into the forecasts which should weigh heavy for the Australian dollar which generally performs well when the global economy is growing at a healthy pace.

Clients looking to sell Australian dollars don’t see a bright future in the short term although any positive noises and downplaying tariffs could see some relief for the Aussie. US President Donald Trump is keeping the markets guessing and does not appear ready to start putting the brakes on the tariffs just yet. Until this happens the Australian dollar could have further to fall.

The Aussie has made some small inroads against the pound this week although this is more to do with weakness in the pound following weaker UK economic data and uncertainty in the Brexit negotiations. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is in for a battle later this month when the House of Commons will vote on various amendments that the House of Lords have put forward which are aimed at keeping Britain within the single market and in some cases even with a view to keeping Britain in the EU altogether. What this all means is political uncertainty and it is politics which can be a major driver for exchange rates. Rates for GBP AUD could fall materially lower on Brexit uncertainty.

Only yesterday following a Brexit cabinet meeting the Prime Minister faced strong calls to ditch the customs partnership model that had been put forward and certainly keep Britain out of any customs union. A harder Brexit or no deal scenario cannot be ruled out and any heightening of tensions could see the pound tumble quickly. In my view there will be more twists and turns to come and this could present those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds with some good opportunities to convert.

For more information on the Australian dollar and when to convert then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakens on Uncertain Outlook (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under pressure having fallen to a 4 month low following a decline in commodity prices including the price of metals. The US dollar has also seen a rise in US bond yields and this is something that impacts negatively on the Aussie. The Australian dollar has traditionally performed well when global investors have invested their funds into the higher yielding Australian dollar when interest rates have been considerably higher than in the US for example. The tide has turned now though after the US has begun raising interest rates and looks set to continue doing so throughout 2018. Funds have been moving out of the Aussie and back to the safety of the US dollar which has resulted in a stronger US dollar and a weaker Aussie.

The trade tariffs which have been imposed by the US and China also weigh heavily on the Australian dollar due to the wealth of raw materials down under and also considering the volume of exports that go to China. Any further signals that trade could slow down and impact negatively on global growth could see the Australian dollar weaken further.

In my view any progress on NAFTA which covers the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and China could end up having a positive impact on the Aussie if a positive trade arrangement can be reached. Pressure is mounting to have a decisions made by the time of the Mexican elections in the summer which could make for an interesting period ahead. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds are seeing excellent prices available which are close to 1.85 for the pair. The Bank of England interest rate decision in May is also likely to throw up some sunrises and the rate hike that had been promised is no longer a certainty. In my view it is more likely the Bank of England will pause which could see GBP AUD come under some pressure.

For more information on buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Best Rates for Buying Australian Dollars – GBP AUD 1.84 (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under pressure as events on the global stage continue to drive the dollar lower. The uncertainty over the potential trade war between the US and China has implications for the Australian dollar too. China is Australia’s largest export market so any slowdown in economic growth in China results in an immediate reduction to Australian exports. The other issue that stems from this is that a global trade war would potentially see a slowdown in economic growth causing some currencies to include the commodity currencies to weaken of which the Australian dollar is one of them.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting above 1.84 which has presented a great opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound has been boosted considerably of late on the back of a brighter outlook on Brexit and the prospect of an imminent interest rate increase in the UK. The Bank of England next meet in May and there is a high chance that the central bank will raise interest rates. This seems particularly likely now that wage growth numbers released yesterday increased for the first time in a year. The Bank of England have been paying very close attention to this data set and the boost is proving very positive for sterling.

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars could see an improvement assuming the rhetoric on trade tariffs begins to die down. The US is currently renegotiating the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico. You may ask what this has to do with the Australian dollar – In my view any progress on this agreement could signal a turning point for US President Donald Trump with new terms agreed and may start to calm those nerves in the financial markets. As such the Australian dollar could be a beneficiary on any positive developments in the world arena.

To discuss your own requirement and how these events have a direct impact on personal currency transfers then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Rally on Uncertainty for Commodity Currencies (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has weakened again after coming under pressure from the recent trade tariffs being imposed by China and the US. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is impacted negatively when there is a threat to global growth and that risk is very real in the current climate. With tit for tat trade tariffs being imposed by both nations there have been concerns that things could escalate and end up in a global trade war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping made a conciliatory speech this morning and even suggested opening trade which would include a reduction on import tariffs on vehicles and even hinted at encouraging imports. It follows a tweet from Trump yesterday which highlighted that China has been slapping on tariffs to the tune of 25% whilst in the US that tariff has only been 2.5%

I don’t think anyone is expecting a fully blown trade war but there is still some nervousness about the trade disputes which also moves into the realms of the NAFTA trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The Canadian dollar is another commodity currency also feeling the pinch and how Trump handles these negotiations will almost certainly have a knock on effect on the Aussie.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds could see some more positive movement as the trade disputes intensify but at some point an outcome should be reached and this should be beneficial for the Aussie. Rates for GBP AUD are hovering around 1.83 and are proving to be some of the best levels we have seen for some time. A rally in commodity prices on brighter global outlook could see material gains for the Aussie and reverse the good gains that have been witnessed.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and assistance in making a transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Australian Dollars? GBP AUD Supported (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under a fair amount of pressure amidst global economic and political changes. Rates for GBP AUD remain over 1.80 for the pair although a move higher to 1.90 may prove difficult in the short term. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds may wish to consider locking in at today’s rates and take advantage of these higher levels which have only recently become available.

The pound has been boosted following slightly better manufacturing numbers released yesterday as per the Purchasing Managers Index. Tomorrows services sector data for the UK could prove particularly volatile for the pound and a strong number could see a rally in the GBP AUD pair.

The Australian dollar could also come under added pressure in the short term as a result of some of the trade barriers which are being erected by China and the US at present. If trade barriers and tariffs continue to go up then the Australian dollar could be one to suffer although the markets are hopeful this behaviour will not turn into a fully blown trade war.

Those clients who are looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds should continue to see more volatility in the coming weeks and months as result of the ongoing Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU. One of the reasons the pound has rallied is due to the fact that the second round of negotiations has just been completed with talks now progressing on to future trade. Once the thorny issues of the Irish border and also whether financial services can be included in and trade deal have been resolved this could prove beneficial for sterling exchange rates.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to maximise on the rates of exchange when there is sudden movement then please feel free to get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Has GBP AUD Peaked? – Sterling Begins to Fall (James Lovick)

The pound continues to maintain the higher ground against the Australian dollar whilst sterling is falling this morning against most of the other major currencies. Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting just below 1.84 for the pair but the positive rally appears now to be coming to an end. At present there is an excellent opportunity to buy Australian dollars with pounds and clients may wish to consider securing sooner rather than later to avoid potential disappointment. Sterling Is beginning to fall sharply against most of the other major currencies in a sign of what may now be about to happen against the Australian dollar.

The pound has been given an excellent boost over the last week after Britain and the EU were able to agree on a transitional deal which keeps Britain abiding by EU rules for another 18 months to avoid the so called cliff edge Brexit. This is important for sterling exchange rates as the agreement gives business some certainty which the markets have been screaming out for. This latest Brexit agreement combined with the trade policy adjustments coming out of the Trump administration have helped see the GBP AUD pair soar.

Donald Trump has made two recent interventions where tariffs on Chinese exports have been introduced. The first was the imposition of tariffs on both steel and aluminium and more recently he introduced tariffs on some imported goods. This has wider implications and the Australian dollar is likely to see market volatility on the back of any further policy changes coming from the US.

These changes have wider implications and the Australian dollar is one currency that is disproportionately impacted. The prospect of a trade war has implications for the Aussie especially considering the size of Australia’s export market to China and the fact that China at present is being heavily targeted by the US with these trade barriers.

For more information on Australian dollar exchanges rates and how to try and make the most of any opportunities in the markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk