Tag Archives: GBP to AUD

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – New British Prime Minister Next Week

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen significantly lower as Brexit drives the pound down ahead of a new British Prime Minister to be announced next week. GBP vs AUD has fallen to 1.7720 which has presented a good opportunity for those looking to sell Australian dollars to buy pounds. The direction of travel will now be heavily impacted by events next week once the new Prime Minister is in place on Wednesday. Boris Johnson is seen as the expected victor over Jeremy Hunt and any statements he makes will likely see considerable volatility for the GBP to AUD pair.

There have been reports that Boris could seek and early general election which would add another layer of political uncertainty to an already weak pound. The prospect of a Labour government or the alternative of a Conservative / Brexit party coalition of sorts would likely see the pound weaken in these outcomes both of which are credible. The reality is that there are a number of Conservative MP’s which may vote against the government in a confidence vote which would then lead the way to a general election. With a handful of remain MP’s who seek to remove a no deal Brexit in its entirety nothing can be ruled out at this stage.

The Australian dollar has proved extremely resilient against the pound despite weak growth number from China earlier I the week which showed growth to be the slowest in 27 years largely attributed to the US China trade war. With the trade dispute showing no signs of resolve just yet the Australian dollar could find itself reacting to any further developments and the performance of the Chinese economy. The markets at least took stock that some of the most recent numbers coming out of China were showing some signs of improvement. The truce on further tariffs between the US and China may help the Chinese economy for the time being but until a deal is in place it could be a bumpy ride for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – GBP AUD rises over 1.80 after Weak Consumer Confidence

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has pushed slightly higher breaking over 1.80 again for the GBP to AUD pair. The National Australia Bank’s business survey yesterday disappointed the markets and has placed some pressure on the Australian dollar. However the Westpac consumer confidence numbers for July released overnight took a major fall into negative territory at -4.1%. The particularly low numbers signal a bumpy ride ahead with consumer confidence running low.

The weak numbers follow two consecutive interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia although these cuts may take some time before any improvement in the economy is seen. The AUD to GBP pairing is likely to now be heavily influenced by any developments with the ongoing US China trade war and also the outcome from the next US Federal Reserve meeting later this month. The US Fed are widely tipped to cut interest rates at the July meeting and there are some expectations that there could even be a 50 basis point rate cut.

The Australian dollar as commodity currency will likely be impacted by any such move although the markets would appear to have started adjusting and pricing in prior to the event. In Australia, rates now sit at just 1%, the lowest on record and substantially lower than the average base rate which has been 4.39% since 1990. With rates so low the Australian dollar is currently disregarded as a high yielding currency and so there could be further weakness for the Aussie.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and the GBP vs AUD pair. As the two Conservative runners battle it out for the top job the pound is likely to see a very volatile few months ahead. The new Prime Minister is expected to be announced 23rd July and the course of action he takes on Brexit will likely dictate the direction of travel for the pound vs Australian dollar. Any further rhetoric of a no deal Brexit is only likely to help see the pound weaken further. The fact that the favourite Boris Johnson has made so clear that Britain must leave the EU by 31st October with or without a deal is likely to be the main talking point for these coming months ahead of the deadline.

Tor assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars and to talk through how these events will impact your own requirement then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar – RBA Cuts Rates

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has weakened despite an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia last night. The RBA have cut interest rates from 1.25% down to 1% as concerns over a global slowdown and a downturn in Australia continue to influence the central bank’s decision making. The cut last night had been largely priced into the markets and there hasn’t been a major market reaction to the news.

The pound is nonetheless weaker against the Australian dollar although this is more likely to do with the truce between the US and China which will stop further trade tariffs being applied. There is a better opportunity to convert Australian dollars into pounds on the back of these recent developments. This may not last as there are reservations that the issue of the US China trade war will be resolved. The RBA may or may not wish to cut interest rates again and this topic is likely to generate much discussion. The US Federal Reserve are also expected to cut interest rates this month and this could have a far reaching impact on the Australian dollar. There has been talk of a US interest rate cut of 50 basis points which would be more extreme in approach than we have seen in recent years.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the main driver for sterling exchange rates and the GBP to AUD pair is likely to see a volatile few months ahead of the latest deadline of 31st October 2019. The Conservative leadership battle continues between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson both of who are pushing to deliver on Brexit. Boris Johnson however has been more forthright having stated that Britain will leave the EU by this date, come what may, do or die.

The prospect of a no deal outcome is now becoming a credible proposition and this has been reflected in the price of sterling across the board after Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister. Those with pending currency requirements either buying or selling Australian dollars would be wise to plan around these important events.

For morte information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in moving funds then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Falls on Hope for US China Trade Deal (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower after following comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He stated that the US China trade deal is getting closer and he felt that it is 95% complete. This is good news for the commodity currencies to include the Australian dollar as they tend to benefit when the global economy is performing. The ongoing trade war between the US and China which has lasted for almost a year continues to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar as concerns for global growth remain. A weaker global economy means less production in China which is of course Australia’s largest export market for its raw materials. Any further developments will likely have a big impact on the GBP to AUD pair.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates. As the leadership contest continues as the two prospective Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt battle it out the markets are incredibly interested to who will take the top job. With two very different approaches to Brexit the pound could travel in either direction depending on who becomes PM. Boris has made clear that he wishes to leave the no deal option on the table to try and force a deal by the latest deadline of 31st October. The prospect of no deal will likely keep the pressure on the price of sterling and there could be some even better opportunities ahead for those looking to covert Australian dollars to pounds. Those with pending requirements would be wise to consider planning around this important change in British politics with a volatile few months expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet again after the weekend on Monday for the next interest rate decision. The central bank cut rates to record lows at the last meeting and there is a high chance there will be another cut next week. Such a move should prove negative for the Australian dollar although any movement will also be driven by any interest rate decisions made in the US. The US Federal Reserve are widely expected to cut at the next meeting and possibly by as much as 50 basis points which may help limit any losses for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

AUD to GBP Strength after Australian Election (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower following the Australian election result which has helped boost the Aussie dollar. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been re-elected despite being behind in the polls in the campaign. This campaign was won on economic management, tax cuts and the pledge to return to a budget surplus.

There is a good short term opportunity for those looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds with rates for AUD GBP having moved to 1.84 for the pair. Whether the Australian dollar will continue to strengthen remains to be seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia is potentially looking to cut interest rates in the months ahead and this could see Australian dollar weakness. This will be the first time the central bank will have changed rates since 2016 and could see a big movement in the Australian dollar.

UK Politics are also about to create volatility for GBP vs AUD with the European elections to be held this Friday. There is a growing expectation that the two major political parties will be punished at these elections like never seen before and could help redirect the debate on Brexit. A big shift to the newly formed Brexit Party under Nigel Farage will likely reinforce the Leave vote and put pressure on politicians to deliver on Brexit and potentially with a cleaner break.

A drop in the price of sterling may be seen if the electorate vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers. Following this the fourth and final meaningful vote on the current withdrawal agreement will be held week commencing 3rd June. If the Prime Minister is unable to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons then the options on Brexit are either no deal or revoke Article 50 altogether. Either of these outcome would likely see a major volatility for sterling exchange rates and the GBP to AUD pair.

The Australian dollar may be influenced by a speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. The US Fed have changed tact on the rate cycle having paused on any further rate hikes. The Fed has indicated that it would like to start to keep the markets guessing as the Fed has done historically and so any sudden shift could impact both the US and Australian dollars. Changes in the US have direct knock on effect on the Aussie dollar as the divergence between the two economies is calculated by investors.

For more information on the Australian dollar and guidance in making transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rates before EU Elections (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is still finding support with rates sitting at 1.8550 for the GBP vs AUD pair despite the ongoing Brexit uncertainty in the UK. The Australian dollar has come under pressure over the last week following the decision by Donald Trump to deliver on promises made to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. China has since retaliated by imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of American imports.

There is hope that some agreement between the leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can still be reached and it should be highlighted that the tariffs won’t actually take effect until the Chinese goods that shipped last Friday actually reach American soil. The next meeting between the US and China will take place at the G20 summit in Japan and the markets will be awaiting any developments on trade.

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to these trade developments as a commodity currency and the fact that Australia is such a large export market for China. A good trade deal would be very welcome news for the Australian dollar although there is still every chance that the trade war could escalate and turn in to a global trade war, something that would be negative for Australian dollar exchange rates.

In the UK it has been announced that there will be a fourth and final vote in parliament to try and push through the existing deal on Brexit. Cross party talks continue but with a lack of agreement and the difficulty in finding enough support in the House of Commons it seems unlikely the deal will be voted through.

The EU elections next Friday could be a very good indicator of what is to come and those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this event. A major shift away from the two major political parties in the UK towards the Liberal Democrats and the newly formed Brexit Party could see a major market reaction for GBP to AUD. If there is a huge movement towards the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage then GBP AUD could fall lower.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakness as US China Trade War Escalates (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has rallied higher following the latest developments over the US China trade war. Rates for GBP to AUD are now sitting just below 1.87 presenting a good opportunity for buying Australian dollars. The Australian dollar has come under pressure after US President Donald Trump has delivered on his promise to impose tariffs of 25% on $200 billion of Chinese exports.

The Australian dollar is sensitive to the US / China trade war as Australia have a heavy reliance on China for trade. If the trade war continues or escalates further then the Australian dollar could see further weakness. China has already retaliated having made the decision to hike tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of American goods. The fear is that Donald Trump could impose tariffs on all Chinese goods which could bode badly for the Australian dollar.

Brexit meanwhile remains a major driver for GBP vs AUD and the European elections to held 23rd May could see much volatility for the currency pair. British voters are expected to punish the two main parties in a way that has never been seen before. A huge shift to the Brexit party could help change the direction of Brexit. A cleaner break between Britain and the EU could start to look more likely although this would likely be seen as negative for the pound as the uncertainty attributed with a no deal Brexit would return. If however there is a shift to Remain supporting parties then the opposite is true and the pound could rally although this seems less likely looking at the current polls. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around these EU elections as they represents a major event and could result in high volatility.

Australians are also set for their general election to be held at the end of this week which could see further volatility for the Australian dollar. New rules however will insist that the next Prime Minister will serve a full term after so many changes in the top job in recent Australian history. Elections can always result in market volatility but if anything having the confidence for a longer term bringing some stability and continuity in governance could be seen as positive for the dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates after RBA Statement (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower this morning with rates sitting just below 1.86 for the GBP vs AUD pair. Australia are preparing for a general election to be held 18th May to elect the next Prime Minister. Australia has seen an interesting time in its recent political history with no single leader serving a full term since 2007. In fact this will be the seventh leadership challenge in 12 years although this time round under new rules the Prime Minister will serve a full term which could bode well for the Australian dollar if some political certainty is established.

Such certainty could come at the right time for the Australian economy which is struggling to perform at the moment with calls by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that it may be cutting interest rates again. The RBA released its Monetary Policy Statement after last Tuesday’s interest rate decision which saw the decision to hold rates at 1.5%. The statement has highlighted that it would consider cutting interest rates if unemployment remained high whilst also citing the weak housing market again as reason to downgrade the growth forecasts. It follows a decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week to cut interest rates to record lows and whilst the two countries are independent the move may persuade the RBA to follow suit.

For GBP to AUD exchange rates the pound is still largely being driven by Brexit which remains deadlocked in the British parliament. Cross party talks between the Labour and Conservative parties have hit a roadblock with leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn stating that it is difficult negotiating with a “disintegrating government”. The next focus is the European elections being held 23rd May and could see considerable market movement for GBP AUD.

The polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the lead and if the reports are correct that there is a major shift away from the two main political parties then this could have a major impact on sterling exchange rates. A huge win for Nigel Farage could see sterling weakness with a sudden drop for GBP AUD. Those with pending GBP to AUD requirement would be wise to plan around this major event.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Forecast – Dollar Weakness before RBA Interest Rate Decision

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has made excellent gains this week with rates for the GBP AUD pair breaking over 1.86 once again. Much of the positive movement has arisen from optimism that a compromise agreement between the Conservative and Labour parties will be reached and thus avoid the need for Britain to contest the European elections. If the withdrawal agreement can be voted through parliament with cross party support then this should be seen as positive for the pound and the markets are already starting to price in this outcome.

The existing withdrawal agreement keeps close ties between Britain and the EU and could see investment in Britain restored to past levels. The debate at the moment is whether the UK will adopt some form of a customs union which would result in a softer form of Brexit, something that should be seen as positive for the pound. Rates for GBP to AUD are likely to see further volatility as the detail of these cross party talks is revealed. There is the potential for a spike higher for GBP vs AUD on the back of a deal although gains are likely to be limited as Brexit will still take a considerable amount of time to deliver. Remember, the withdrawal agreement will only then take Brexit negotiations to the next stage which will cover the thorny issue of trade and this could see another highly volatile period for the GBP to AUD pair.

Today does see UK local elections and reports indicate that the conservative party could lose a number of their councillor seats muddying the political picture if there is a general election or if the European elections do still go ahead.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet next week and there is a chance of an interest rate cut which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. Last week saw disappointing inflation data which is putting pressure on the Aussie and some commentators are putting the chances of a rate cut next Tuesday at 50%. Expect a big market reaction either way and if the central bank doesn’t deliver a rate cut then there could be a rally in the Australian dollar reversing some of the weakness in the Australian dollar. The RBA will be loathed to lower rates further unless absolutely necessary which makes this interest rate decision particularly interesting.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to time your exchange at the optimum time then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates before Brexit Votes in Parliament this Week (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar has been performing well in recent weeks with rates testing the 1.85 levels for the GBP to AUD pair. However the pound has weakened as concerns over Brexit continue to dictate the direction of travel. There is currently a deadlock in the ongoing Brexit negotiations with a breakdown in talks with no compromises being made over the contentious Irish backstop. The UK attorney general Geoffrey Cox and Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay have been unable to find common ground over the weekend ahead of a meaningful vote to be held in parliament on Tuesday.

With no changes to the backstop it seems almost certain that the Prime Minister will be unable to get through parliament the current withdrawal agreement. It leaves the pound on shaky ground with so much riding on the outcome of Tuesday’s vote. If the vote does not pass then a further two votes are to be held on Wednesday or Thursday and these will determine if there is to be a no deal Brexit or if there is a majority in parliament to delay Article 50. This week represents one of the biggest weeks in British political history and there is likely to be substantial market volatility for GBP vs AUD depending on the outcomes of these events.

Home loan data down under should make for an interesting start to the week with concerns still hanging over the Australian property market. Property prices have been falling in the major cities as a result of global economy concerns as well as domestic rules on lending standards. Australian home loans took a nose dive last month with a drop of -6.1% highlighting a significant drop in the market.

The consensus is for a climb to 1% which could help reassure the market and may help boost the Australian dollar. With the full effect of the trade war yet to be felt then the housing market in Australia may have further to fall which could paint a bleaker outlook down under.

Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this week’s major political events in the UK. For more information on how to tackle the exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk