Tag Archives: GBP to AUD

AUD to GBP Strength after Australian Election (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower following the Australian election result which has helped boost the Aussie dollar. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been re-elected despite being behind in the polls in the campaign. This campaign was won on economic management, tax cuts and the pledge to return to a budget surplus.

There is a good short term opportunity for those looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds with rates for AUD GBP having moved to 1.84 for the pair. Whether the Australian dollar will continue to strengthen remains to be seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia is potentially looking to cut interest rates in the months ahead and this could see Australian dollar weakness. This will be the first time the central bank will have changed rates since 2016 and could see a big movement in the Australian dollar.

UK Politics are also about to create volatility for GBP vs AUD with the European elections to be held this Friday. There is a growing expectation that the two major political parties will be punished at these elections like never seen before and could help redirect the debate on Brexit. A big shift to the newly formed Brexit Party under Nigel Farage will likely reinforce the Leave vote and put pressure on politicians to deliver on Brexit and potentially with a cleaner break.

A drop in the price of sterling may be seen if the electorate vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers. Following this the fourth and final meaningful vote on the current withdrawal agreement will be held week commencing 3rd June. If the Prime Minister is unable to push through her Brexit deal in the House of Commons then the options on Brexit are either no deal or revoke Article 50 altogether. Either of these outcome would likely see a major volatility for sterling exchange rates and the GBP to AUD pair.

The Australian dollar may be influenced by a speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. The US Fed have changed tact on the rate cycle having paused on any further rate hikes. The Fed has indicated that it would like to start to keep the markets guessing as the Fed has done historically and so any sudden shift could impact both the US and Australian dollars. Changes in the US have direct knock on effect on the Aussie dollar as the divergence between the two economies is calculated by investors.

For more information on the Australian dollar and guidance in making transfer either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rates before EU Elections (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is still finding support with rates sitting at 1.8550 for the GBP vs AUD pair despite the ongoing Brexit uncertainty in the UK. The Australian dollar has come under pressure over the last week following the decision by Donald Trump to deliver on promises made to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. China has since retaliated by imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of American imports.

There is hope that some agreement between the leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can still be reached and it should be highlighted that the tariffs won’t actually take effect until the Chinese goods that shipped last Friday actually reach American soil. The next meeting between the US and China will take place at the G20 summit in Japan and the markets will be awaiting any developments on trade.

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to these trade developments as a commodity currency and the fact that Australia is such a large export market for China. A good trade deal would be very welcome news for the Australian dollar although there is still every chance that the trade war could escalate and turn in to a global trade war, something that would be negative for Australian dollar exchange rates.

In the UK it has been announced that there will be a fourth and final vote in parliament to try and push through the existing deal on Brexit. Cross party talks continue but with a lack of agreement and the difficulty in finding enough support in the House of Commons it seems unlikely the deal will be voted through.

The EU elections next Friday could be a very good indicator of what is to come and those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this event. A major shift away from the two major political parties in the UK towards the Liberal Democrats and the newly formed Brexit Party could see a major market reaction for GBP to AUD. If there is a huge movement towards the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage then GBP AUD could fall lower.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakness as US China Trade War Escalates (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has rallied higher following the latest developments over the US China trade war. Rates for GBP to AUD are now sitting just below 1.87 presenting a good opportunity for buying Australian dollars. The Australian dollar has come under pressure after US President Donald Trump has delivered on his promise to impose tariffs of 25% on $200 billion of Chinese exports.

The Australian dollar is sensitive to the US / China trade war as Australia have a heavy reliance on China for trade. If the trade war continues or escalates further then the Australian dollar could see further weakness. China has already retaliated having made the decision to hike tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of American goods. The fear is that Donald Trump could impose tariffs on all Chinese goods which could bode badly for the Australian dollar.

Brexit meanwhile remains a major driver for GBP vs AUD and the European elections to held 23rd May could see much volatility for the currency pair. British voters are expected to punish the two main parties in a way that has never been seen before. A huge shift to the Brexit party could help change the direction of Brexit. A cleaner break between Britain and the EU could start to look more likely although this would likely be seen as negative for the pound as the uncertainty attributed with a no deal Brexit would return. If however there is a shift to Remain supporting parties then the opposite is true and the pound could rally although this seems less likely looking at the current polls. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around these EU elections as they represents a major event and could result in high volatility.

Australians are also set for their general election to be held at the end of this week which could see further volatility for the Australian dollar. New rules however will insist that the next Prime Minister will serve a full term after so many changes in the top job in recent Australian history. Elections can always result in market volatility but if anything having the confidence for a longer term bringing some stability and continuity in governance could be seen as positive for the dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates after RBA Statement (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower this morning with rates sitting just below 1.86 for the GBP vs AUD pair. Australia are preparing for a general election to be held 18th May to elect the next Prime Minister. Australia has seen an interesting time in its recent political history with no single leader serving a full term since 2007. In fact this will be the seventh leadership challenge in 12 years although this time round under new rules the Prime Minister will serve a full term which could bode well for the Australian dollar if some political certainty is established.

Such certainty could come at the right time for the Australian economy which is struggling to perform at the moment with calls by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that it may be cutting interest rates again. The RBA released its Monetary Policy Statement after last Tuesday’s interest rate decision which saw the decision to hold rates at 1.5%. The statement has highlighted that it would consider cutting interest rates if unemployment remained high whilst also citing the weak housing market again as reason to downgrade the growth forecasts. It follows a decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week to cut interest rates to record lows and whilst the two countries are independent the move may persuade the RBA to follow suit.

For GBP to AUD exchange rates the pound is still largely being driven by Brexit which remains deadlocked in the British parliament. Cross party talks between the Labour and Conservative parties have hit a roadblock with leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn stating that it is difficult negotiating with a “disintegrating government”. The next focus is the European elections being held 23rd May and could see considerable market movement for GBP AUD.

The polls have put Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the lead and if the reports are correct that there is a major shift away from the two main political parties then this could have a major impact on sterling exchange rates. A huge win for Nigel Farage could see sterling weakness with a sudden drop for GBP AUD. Those with pending GBP to AUD requirement would be wise to plan around this major event.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Forecast – Dollar Weakness before RBA Interest Rate Decision

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has made excellent gains this week with rates for the GBP AUD pair breaking over 1.86 once again. Much of the positive movement has arisen from optimism that a compromise agreement between the Conservative and Labour parties will be reached and thus avoid the need for Britain to contest the European elections. If the withdrawal agreement can be voted through parliament with cross party support then this should be seen as positive for the pound and the markets are already starting to price in this outcome.

The existing withdrawal agreement keeps close ties between Britain and the EU and could see investment in Britain restored to past levels. The debate at the moment is whether the UK will adopt some form of a customs union which would result in a softer form of Brexit, something that should be seen as positive for the pound. Rates for GBP to AUD are likely to see further volatility as the detail of these cross party talks is revealed. There is the potential for a spike higher for GBP vs AUD on the back of a deal although gains are likely to be limited as Brexit will still take a considerable amount of time to deliver. Remember, the withdrawal agreement will only then take Brexit negotiations to the next stage which will cover the thorny issue of trade and this could see another highly volatile period for the GBP to AUD pair.

Today does see UK local elections and reports indicate that the conservative party could lose a number of their councillor seats muddying the political picture if there is a general election or if the European elections do still go ahead.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet next week and there is a chance of an interest rate cut which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. Last week saw disappointing inflation data which is putting pressure on the Aussie and some commentators are putting the chances of a rate cut next Tuesday at 50%. Expect a big market reaction either way and if the central bank doesn’t deliver a rate cut then there could be a rally in the Australian dollar reversing some of the weakness in the Australian dollar. The RBA will be loathed to lower rates further unless absolutely necessary which makes this interest rate decision particularly interesting.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to time your exchange at the optimum time then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates before Brexit Votes in Parliament this Week (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar has been performing well in recent weeks with rates testing the 1.85 levels for the GBP to AUD pair. However the pound has weakened as concerns over Brexit continue to dictate the direction of travel. There is currently a deadlock in the ongoing Brexit negotiations with a breakdown in talks with no compromises being made over the contentious Irish backstop. The UK attorney general Geoffrey Cox and Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay have been unable to find common ground over the weekend ahead of a meaningful vote to be held in parliament on Tuesday.

With no changes to the backstop it seems almost certain that the Prime Minister will be unable to get through parliament the current withdrawal agreement. It leaves the pound on shaky ground with so much riding on the outcome of Tuesday’s vote. If the vote does not pass then a further two votes are to be held on Wednesday or Thursday and these will determine if there is to be a no deal Brexit or if there is a majority in parliament to delay Article 50. This week represents one of the biggest weeks in British political history and there is likely to be substantial market volatility for GBP vs AUD depending on the outcomes of these events.

Home loan data down under should make for an interesting start to the week with concerns still hanging over the Australian property market. Property prices have been falling in the major cities as a result of global economy concerns as well as domestic rules on lending standards. Australian home loans took a nose dive last month with a drop of -6.1% highlighting a significant drop in the market.

The consensus is for a climb to 1% which could help reassure the market and may help boost the Australian dollar. With the full effect of the trade war yet to be felt then the housing market in Australia may have further to fall which could paint a bleaker outlook down under.

Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this week’s major political events in the UK. For more information on how to tackle the exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Strength – Brexit Imminent (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has rallied higher with rates for the GBP vs AUD pair sitting above 1.86. Brexit continues to dictate the direction of travel for GBP AUD and the more optimistic mood on reaching a deal is helping to support the pound. The markets have begun pricing in the prospect of a deal being reached by 29th March and failing that there is a chance that an extension of Article 50 may be required. Either outcome gives more certainty in the markets as to what the economic picture looks like for the next 18 months.

What is important to highlight is that the chances of a no deal Brexit are looking less likely which is seen as positive for sterling exchange rates. Meetings between Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox and their EU counterparts resume today seeking to find legally binding changes to the contentious Irish backstop. Any breakthroughs this week could help lift the pound higher although to date there haven’t been any offerings from the EU to suggest a compromise is in the offing.

The hugely important meaningful vote is to be held before 14th March and the outcome should present considerable volatility for GBP to AUD. If the government is unable to push the vote through then the pound faces another uncertain two consecutive days as more votes will be held in parliament. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be speaking later today and any negative comments which he is known for especially when it comes to Brexit could see the pound come under pressure.

The Australian dollar could be set for a big boost in the weeks ahead depending on how the ongoing trade talks between the US and China unfold. Reports have emerged that the two sides are close to making a deal which should be seen as positive for the commodity currencies including the Australian dollar. A future US trade deal which will remove all of the already imposed tariffs and barriers to trade should be seen as welcome news for the global economy. In turn this bodes well for the Australian dollar due to the large volume of exports of its commodities. When the global economy performs in theory so should the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how these events have a direct impact on your own currency transfer then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to assist.

GBP to AUD Rates Break 1.85, Brexit Extension Possible (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has rocketed higher with levels breaking 1.85 for the GBP to AUD pair. The pound has spiked higher after a statement from Theresa May yesterday where she referenced a potential extension to Article 50. There has been pressure from members of her cabinet who have threated to resign unless no deal is removed as a potential outcome.

The markets must now wait for the meaningful vote to be held before 12th March which will see whether the existing withdrawal agreement can be pushed through parliament. If the deal does not go through as insufficient changes have been made to the backstop then there will be a vote on 14th March for an extension of Article 50 if MP’s reject a no deal.

Meanwhile Prime Minster Theresa May is in Brussels meeting with Michel Barnier to try and make legally binding changes to the contentious Irish backstop. The attorney general Geoffrey Cox has also been present in meetings to try and work a legal codicil to go with the withdrawal agreement that would carry legal force and would then pass through parliament. When the outcome of these talks is known this is likely to result in considerable market movement for the GBP vs AUD pair. Expect high volatility and potential good opportunities on the back of any new developments surrounding Brexit in these final stages.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has found support after a calm statement from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed would be patient with interest rates. Since the beginning of the year the Fed have been more dovish in its approach to raising interest rates and softening its stance with concerns of a slowdown in the US and more importantly the global slowdown stemming for China which is being exacerbated by the US China trade war. Investors are now considering whether to continue to invest in the dollar if the Fed is coming to an end of its rate tightening cycle which bodes well for the commodity currencies including the Australian dollar.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates Find Support above 1.80 (James Lovick)

Rates for pound to Australian dollar have found support at the start of this week after a drop off in the GBP to AUD pair at the end of last week. Brexit continues to be the main driver for sterling exchange rates and is creating considerable volatility for the GBP vs AUD pair. The pound has made reasonable gains in recent weeks as the markets remain optimistic that a no deal Brexit appears to the less likely outcome and that there is still hope from all sides that a deal will be reached between the UK and EU. Until some certainty is offered however the pound is unlikely to make any material gains against the Australian dollar. The next important date in British politics is the 14th February where another vote will be held in the House of Commons.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet this week to discuss interest rates and future monetary policy although expectation is that there won’t be any change in the base rate this time round. Economic data in China is likely to have more sway on the future of the Australian dollar. The ongoing trade war between the US and China continues to raise concerns for the global economy and this ultimately has a knock on effect on the Australian economy and the Aussie dollar.

Manufacturing numbers from the Purchasing Managers Index have disappointed the markets once again and any further deterioration could see Australian dollar exchange rates come under renewed pressure. Services data on the other hand also from the Purchasing Managers Index survey have been steady giving some hope for this sector. Any major market movement is likely to follow from any trade agreement that is reached between the US and Chinese leaders. There are reports that there may be a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Vietnam at the end of February. A way forward to break the deadlock in trade negotiations could prove very beneficial for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers at the best rates of exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Rates before Key House of Commons Vote on Tuesday (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has risen over the last week with rates for the GBP to AUD pair sitting above 1.83. The pound has benefited considerably from the markets beginning to feel more optimistic that a deal between Britain and the EU will be reached whilst the prospect of a no deal has been diminishing, for the time being.

With the Australian markets closed today for Australia day, tomorrow will be crucial in determining where rates for GBP vs AUD head next. Key parliamentary votes will be held in the House of Commons at 7pm tomorrow and it will be for the Speaker John Bercow to select which of the amendments the House will vote on. There are two amendments in particular and whether they are selected could help shape the direction for travel for GBP to AUD with currency volatility to be expected.

The Nicholas Boles / Yvette Copper amendment seeks to delay Article 50 in the event that a deal cannot be reached. It effectively removes no deal from the table as we approach 29th March. The other amendment which appears to have the support of government is the Graham Brady amendment which seeks to remove the controversial Irish backstop and replace it with alternative methods should an agreement on future trade not be reached.

These amendments are hugely important as they will help determine the path of Brexit and where it ultimately ends up which is of huge interest in the currency markets. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars will likely see a big market reaction on the outcome of tomorrows vote and could be presented with a good opportunity.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be making a speech later today which could create some volatility for the pound ahead of such an important day tomorrow. Tomorrow sees business conditions data down under from National Australia Bank whilst Wednesdays’ Consumer Price Index inflation data could also help direct the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk