Tag Archives: GBP to AUD
This year we have seen the Aussie as one of the biggest losers on the currency markets. Many had been expecting this for sometime claiming the Aussie was ridiculously overvalued. Where next will rates go on the Australian dollar?
Making currency prediction is an extremely difficult thing and no one can tell you exactly what will happen. What we can expect in the future however can be determined from assessing the current trend. Reading between the lines it appears to me that the Australian economy is on the back foot and that in the future the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will seek to weaken the Australian currency as they have recently.
It is worth remembering the Australian currency was historically much, much weaker and current selling rates remain very favourable.
If you would like more information on the future direction of rates and what to be considering if moving funds, please contact me Jonathan directly on email@example.com
The Aussie has gone from the being one of the best performing currencies in the last few years to one of the worst in a matter of months. Why is this and is it likely to continue?
GBPAUD – I was in Australia ten years ago when rates were about 2.2. How I wish I had invested every penny I had (which wasn’t much in those days!) and brought it back earlier this year! Throughout the global recession the Aussie continued to outperform expectations as their economy remained largely unaffected by the financial crisis. A weak pound too has ensured GBPAUD hit 1.45 earlier this year, a rate very few would have ever suggested was possible only a few years ago.
I personally feel that the rate will now continue to slowly creep back up towards 1.8, and potentially 1.90 in the coming months. The pound is finally gathering some momentum and I do not believe the Australian economy is over the worst with further rate cuts very much a possibility.
AUDEUR – The Australian dollar is not performing particularly well against the Euro either despite the problems for the Eurozone. Just lately the rate has come back in favour of AUD to Eur transactions but as with the pound versus the Aussie, it looks like the very best days of selling Aussies are now well and truly passed.
If you are selling Australian dollars it is well worth remembering rates were historically much, much worse. According to the very recent growth data the UK and the Eurozone are experiencing some of the biggest improvements in their economies for many years. On the current trajectories it is likely therefore that the Euro and GBP will continue to strengthen against the Australian dollar.
For a full overview of your particular transaction and to discuss all of your options with a currency specialist please feel free to contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPAUD buyers have been spoilt over the last few months with the rate climbing significantly. The Australian dollar which had seemed to be able to do no wrong for so long has finally unwound and rates seem to for the time being…
The rate has shifted some 30 cents in the last few months. This massive shift has occurred for a variety of reasons:
1 – AUD strength was primarily due to strong Chinese economic data. Chinese demand for raw materials (many located in Australia) had kept the australian economy buoyant. Many have regarded falling Chinese demand as bad news for the Australian economy.
2- This commodity boom has fueled massive growth in Australia and meant interest rates were high to cap inflation. Now things have started to slow down, interest rates have been lowered which has also caused the currency to weaken.
3 – The AUD has been used by investors to earn money as a safe haven currency. Whilst not technically a safe haven currency, the higher interest rates had made it very attractive for investors to leave money. As investors have lately sold off their positions, the AUD has weakened.
So quite simply the mood on the Australian dollar has changed and it is unlikely we will see a major return in sentiment to lead to the kind of levels witnessed earlier in the year which were all time highs. Sterling has many suggest, finally turned a corner and this will further ensure rates remain at the higher end for the time being.
If you have a currency transaction to consider and would like to get a better rate of exchange you can speak to us. For a free, no obligation discussion of the the current trends and how we work, please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call 01494 787 478.
GBPAUD rates continued their climb this week as the consensus builds that the Reserve bank of Australia will cut interest rates next week. GBPAUD rates are at multiple year highs now. However the gamble still remains for traders as to which Central bank will make a change first. As a result it makes it very difficult to forecast where rates will be in a weeks’ time. The information about what is happening in Australia has been well covered on this site, in this blog I will explain in details what is happening in London.
The Pound has generally been losing recently against most currencies. It is only currencies that are based on raw material exports which has gained. However GBPAUD rates could be hugely impacted by events in London next week. On Wednesday next week the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to release their “forward Guidance” on the banks policy of asset buying, commonly known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The consensus is for more later this year so a further fall is expected for Sterling Exchange rates next week.
As a result anyone with Sterling to sell may wish to move sooner rather than later to limit their exposure to a further fall, this news could result in as much as a 2% fall in a day or £5,500 on a AUD $200,000 purchase.
Why is the bank doing Forward Guidance?
The BOE’s target is to boost economic growth and keep inflation low. One of the ways to do this is by doing QE as it boosts the amount of money in the system which increases the amount that is lent to businesses by banks, this in turn increase their turnover and creates more taxable revenue as well as growth. When this happens and more money is added to the book the money in the system is worth less and this is reflected as we see the value of the Pound fall. This also helps the BOE reach its goals by making the UK’s exports more competitive to foreigners as well as making investing in the UK cheaper. So really a weaker Pound helps the BOE reach its targets, it is good for the bank.
It seems highly likely that more QE will as a result come later this year, so if the BOE confirms this the market will fall and weaken the Pound several months early. As a result the BOE is maximising the gains they see as the Pound is weaker for longer. That is why the BOE is now looking at doing Forward Guidance and why the consensus is for a further fall in the value of Sterling next week.
If you are looking at moving money internationally this will definitely make a difference to your exchange rate over the next few months. To talk through how this could affect your situation feel free to contact me for more information and a quotation of live exchange rates – firstname.lastname@example.org
If you are considering selling Australian dollars selling sooner may be wise! 3 year high buying Aussies and it looks sure to get better!
Selling the AUD sooner is not just a good idea on a fundamental basis, it is also a good idea on a technical basis. The AUDGBP rate has broken through 0.6 in the last 24 hours. This is important because it means there will be further pressure from AUD sellers and despite profit taking, it is likely we will see moves towards the 1.70 / 0.5882 levels of resistance.
The Australian dollar has sold off today because it is looking likely the Federal Reserve in the US will halt their QE stimulus package. This is bad for the Aussie because a slowdown in QE means the global economy could suffer and in such a scenario the Aussie will not perform well. With less money being pumped into the global economy via the Fed investors have withdrawn from riskier investments like the Aussie.
This is major news and coupled with the prospect of yet further interest rate cuts and falling growth in the future, the Aussie could have much further to fall!
If you are considering an AUD transfer whether buying or selling, I can offer information as to when may be a good time to enter the market and a commercial exchange rate. I work for an award winning currency brokerage that has won awards from The Times for our exchange rates and we service clients all over the world!
For more information at no cost or obligation, please contact me direct on email@example.com