Tag Archives: gbpaud exchange rates

Where next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

Australian dollar exchange rates will now be moving into a potentially volatile week as we get a series of major tier releases which could well move the currency markets. Most notably, on GBPAUD we could see big movement from the UK Bank of England interest rate decision on the 2nd August as well as on the evening of 1st when we get the latest US interest rate decision. With both decisions having such a dramatic effects, what can we expect  on the GBPAUD pairing?

Interest rates are a key driver on the Australian dollar and it is the raising and lowering of the central bank’s levels which causes the movements on the currency markets. Just like a higher interest rate will make a savings account more attractive to invest in, a higher interest rate on a currency will make that currency more attractive to hold.

A big driver on the Australian dollar has been the raising of US interest rates with the US dollar gaining in strength as the US Federal Reserve raise their base rate. With the US interest rate now higher than the Australian one, the Australian dollar has weakened as funds and investments are moved from the higher yielding Australian dollar to the now higher yield US dollar.

This move weakens the Australian and has seen GBPAUD level rising in recent weeks although just lately GBP weakness has dragged the pair back down lower. Expectations for next week and the two key central bank decisions could easily GBPAUD levels back towards 1.80. This would be if the US raise rates which would strengthen the US dollar and weaken the Australian. We would probably also need to see the Bank of England also raise rates too, to see the level above 1.80.

Some analysts, myself included, are sceptical over the Bank of England raising rates. If they fail to raise or perform a soft raise, which essentially writes out any future hikes, we could then see the pound drop. With much of the good news priced into a possible hike, it seems that clients holding on to see the pound rise could once again end up disappointed.

For more information on the best potential strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar continues to lose value as inflation levels stall

The financial markets don’t expect to see the base rate of interest change down under until the end of next year according to futures markets, and this is perhaps one of the reasons behind the Aussie Dollars weakening currently.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t amend rates the AUD will lose competitiveness as we’ve already seen, as the likelihood of investors holding assets in the currency diminishes owing to the less competitive of the currency. The US Dollar on the other hand has benefited greatly from its more aggressive monetary policy and the greenback has strengthened by such an extent that US President, Donald Trump has voiced his concerns.

The latest bout of Inflation data out of Australia shows that inflation has risen by 2.1% over the past year, which is slightly lower than what economists were expecting. There doesn’t appear to be much momentum regarding Australian inflation levels which is perhaps the reason behind the low expectations of a rate hike in the short-term future.

Although the Pound has been under pressure in recent months owing to the Brexit plan uncertainty, the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is still towards the top end of it’s longer term trend, which demonstrates the pressure AUD exchange rates have come under. The GBP/AUD pair is likely to be driven by both monetary policy and UK based politics as the UK is going through a crucial time due to the Brexit.

Those monitoring the Aussie Dollars value should also pay attention to US President, Donald Trumps trade tariff’s plans as AUD has come under pressure owing to these concerns. With the Australian economy being reliant on global demand a slowdown to the global economy is likely to have a negative impact the Australian Dollars value.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sadly the Australian football team’s time at the World Cup has been cut short and similarly with the currency side of things the Australian Dollar has also struggled during the course of the last month as well.

The Trade Wars between the US and China has caused a big problem for the Australian Dollar as China is Australia’s largest trading partner so any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness.

At the moment threats are that the US could impose as much as US$200bn on Chinese goods and this is causing a very big problem for global trade and as the Australian Dollar is a commodity based currency this has been badly affected in the same way as both the South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar.

GBPAUD exchange rates have been heading in the direction of 1.80 but appear to be hitting a level of resistance just below at the moment. However, I think we could see the Pound rise higher going into next month.

The EU summit will be taking place over the next couple of days and as well as the migrant crisis one of the other main topics for discussion will be the latest developments surrounding the Brexit issue and how the EU will work without the UK.

If the talks go well for the UK we could see the Pound potentially break higher than 1.80 against the Aussie Dollar so make sure you’re well prepared to take advantage of any potential spikes in the Pound’s favour.

We end the week with the final revision of UK GDP figures for the first quarter of 2018 so any revision upwards could also send the Pound in an upwards direction.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when exchanging Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Hawkish Bank of England comments push the Pound higher, will GBP/AUD breach 1.80 again soon?

Despite the Pound to US Dollar rate trading at a 7-month low against the US Dollar, the currency has actually been boosted against most major currency pairs today.

The reason for the boost to the Pound to Aussie Dollars value can be put down to the Bank of England’s comments and the voting pattern of the Bank of England members. The Aussie Dollar lost a lot of value against the Pound today which is why the focus of this blog is on that particular pair.

There are now 3 members of the Bank of England that wish to increase interest rates in the UK, and this is one of the reasons for today’s boost to Sterling exchange rates. The highest the GBP/AUD pair have hit today is 1.7979 although the pair have since slipped off which to me demonstrates that there may be resistance at the 1.80 mark as we’ve previously seen.

There isn’t expected to be any rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia until next year, so I do think that the Pound will climb against AUD should the hints at a rate hike later in the year from the BoE materialise.

With a quiet end to the week in terms of data I’m expecting to see AUD exchange rates driven by sentiment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Bank of England to influence GBPAUD exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

Today the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision and this event has the potential to have an impact on GBPAUD exchange rates. At the beginning of the year the Bank of England were hinting that an interest rate hike was imminent and due to a poor run of UK economic data interest rates were kept on hold and the pound lost value against the Australian dollar.

Today looks like we will receive similar commentary as the latest Q2 growth figures were a mixed bag, wage growth construction output and industrial production all missed the consensus. Arguable the only recent economic data release that exceeded expectation were the retail sales numbers.

My personal opinion is that the vote will be split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold, which will be a slight non event. However Governor Mark Carney will talk down the chances of a rate hike in the foreseeable future due to the recent flurry of economic data, Brexit negotiations and trade wars. Arguably there is a good chance that buying Australian dollars with pounds could come more expensive throughout the day.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. If I haven’t covered your currency pair please outline the pair you are converting. 

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar?

After having a very good run against the Pound the Australian Dollar has started to weaken in the direction of 1.80 on GBPAUD exchange rates. The confirmation from last night’s RBA minutes showed that interest rates are likely to be kept the same for the foreseeable future as they are helping to keep the economy performing well.

This has caused global investors to sell the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve has already increased rates twice this year and this is the seventh time since December 2015.

Over the years the Australian Dollar has had a very strong positive yield but in recent times owing to the pace of rates going up in the US this has caused problems for the Australian Dollar.

However, not only is keeping interest rates on hold causing a problem for the Australian Dollar they are also facing the effects of Donald Trump’s latest threats of tariffs on Chinese goods.

As China is such a large trading partner with Australia then any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness and this appears to be happening at the moment.

Trump has asked US officials to create a list of US$200bn worth of imports from China which could result in a very large trade war between the world’s two strongest economic powerhouses.

The Australian stock market has felt the effects of the news and the Pound vs the Australian Dollar hit the higher level of the 1.79 region earlier on during today’s trading session.

I personally think we could see the Australian Dollar weaken further this week and I would not be surprised to see the Pound hit 1.80 over the next few days.

On Thursday the Bank of England will hold their latest monetary policy meeting and recently the split has been 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold but with UK Retail Sales coming out much higher recently could this change one of the MPC member’s mind?

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs the Australian Dollar waiting to hear about the EU Withdrawal Bill (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has crept up during today’s trading session and we could be in for a very volatile period over the next 24 hours as the House of Commons will be debating the latest EU Withdrawal Bill.

The bill was rejected previously by the House of Lords and this is the reason why it has been sent to the House of Commons for another review.

Most of the DUP have said that they will side with Theresa May but if some of the Tory back benchers go against the Prime Minister this could cause a big headache for the government and this could result in Sterling weakness against the Australian Dollar.

By the end of Wednesday and going into Thursday morning we should know the update so if you’re concerned about what may happen then it’s probably worth getting your currency organised as we could see a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates over the next couple of days.

During the voting on the bill this afternoon we have seen one member resign over the Brexit talks and there has so far been a lot of in fighting between MPs.

In the morning UK inflation data is due out at 930am and we could see some market movement on Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but ultimately I think it will be the EU withdrawal bill that will cause the most movement.

If we have a positive result then we could see GBPAUD exchange rates head towards 1.80 but if not I expect the Pound to fall below 1.75.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Australian Dollar predicted to rise as global economy picks up

The Australian Dollar has been strengthening in recent weeks, with the GBP to AUD exchange rate being a good example of how much AUD has strengthened after the rate has dropped from around 1.85 to around 1.75 over the last few months.

A number of analysts have begun to adopt a hawkish outlook for the Aussie Dollar moving forward, and the HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand is the most recent key figure to share this view. His name is Paul Bloxham and he’s cited the largest increase in 6 years for the counties GDP as a key indicator as to the health of the economy.

A global pick up will benefit the Aussie Dollar due to its export driven economy, but I also think its important that our readers are aware of the importance of the countries services sector as its now more important to Australia than its mining sector.

Next week on Thursday there will be a number of key releases out of Australia, mostly covering the health of the countries employment sector. If you would like to plan around this event do feel free to register your interest with me.

The economy is likely to remain resilient in the face of trade wars breaking out, due to its close trading relationship with China. One downside though is that the RBA doesn’t plan on hiking interest rates until next year, meaning that the currency may lose some of its competitive edge.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Is the Australian Dollars reverse in fortunes likely to continue?

The Australian Dollar is continuing to strengthen, and put in another strong performance yesterday as sentiment surrounding the Aussie Dollar appears to be turning for the better.

There is renewed hope that the coalition in Italy will pull through after it stalled over the weekend, and this is helping push the Aussie Dollar higher as it removes uncertainty from the markets to a certain extent. There cost of commodities has also increased recently which has boosted the Aussie Dollars value, as the Australian economy is highly export driven.

I also think that now the talks of a trade war between the US and China have subsided, fears surrounding the global economy have also subsided leaving the Aussie Dollar in a stronger position. The positive moves for AUD recently can be highlighted when we consider that the Pound has lost almost 10-cents vs AUD in a short space of time.

It has also emerged that the US economy isn’t growing at the rate some economists had expected, meaning that there may not be as many rate hikes in the US as some had expected. This has boosted AUD as it could means investors will be less likely to move funds from AUD into USD in order to get a greater return.

Moving forward I expect to see AUD continue to strengthen, although further rate hikes from the US Fed Reserve later in the year could impact AUD negatively.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar strengthens but will the Pound fight back next week with unemployment and average earnings data

The Australian Dollar has made considerable ground vs Sterling recently breaking below 1.80 for the first time in a few weeks after the Bank of England chose to keep interest rates on hold with a 7-2 split.

This did not come as too much of a surprise to the markets but what has caused the Pound to weaken vs the Aussie Dollar is that the UK growth forecast have been downgraded from 1.8% to 1.4% for 2018.

This has changed since the last forecast which was released in February and this has caused the fall in value of Sterling against a number of different currencies.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney did then suggest that this dip could be a ‘temporary soft patch’ and that if things improve then we could see an interest rate hike later in the year.

As we go into next week we could see a very volatile period on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia release their latest set of minutes from their previous meeting.

I think we could see the Australian Dollar come under pressure with GBPAUD exchange rates improving above 1.80 again as I think the minutes will be rather dovish, which means any interest rate hike will be well off the cards for the time being.

Interest rates in Australia are currently sitting at 1.5% and with wage growth still very slow at the moment down under I cannot foresee a rate hike in Australia during 2018 and this is why I think we could see the Australian Dollar weaken following the RBA minutes.

Later on Tuesday morning the UK will release both average earnings as well as unemployment data and both have shown positive signs recently so another positive release could see the Pound improve early next week against the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer when buying or selling Australian Dollars.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 from Monday 830am and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk