Tag Archives: gbpaud exchange rates

Will further interest rate cuts result in a drop for the Australian Dollar this year?

The Australian Dollar has continued to come under pressure recently which has helped the Pound recoup some of its recent losses against the currency. One of the reasons for the downturn for AUD is due to the interest rate cut that took place earlier this month, which has pushed Australian interest rates down to record lows. There are now predictions of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia with some financial institutions predicting two further cuts this year, which would push the rate down to 0.75% and likely have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollars value.

Aside from these forecasts of rate cuts due to the slowing economy, another reason for Aussie Dollar weakness is due to the ongoing US-China trade war saga, which has caused concerns for the Australian economy moving forward. I would expect to see AUD exchange rates continue to struggle whilst this continues, owing to the fact that China is the countries main trading partner.

From the UK side the Conservative leadership contest is likely to remain the key driver, with Boris Johnson remaining the front runner. This leadership contest along with any Brexit related updates remain the key driver for GBP exchange rates so do keep on top of this if you’re following the Pound’s value due to an upcoming currency requirement.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will more disappointing data for the UK today result in further falls for the Pound?

It’s been a disappointing week for UK economic data releases so far, which has come at a bad time for the Pound as the currency is already trading at the lower end of it’s recent trading ranges. The Pound to Aussie Dollar pair in particular is trading in the early 1.80’s, and at the time of writing it’s trading at 1.8150 which is towards the lower levels of the day.

1.80 could act as a support level for the Pound, but those of our clients and readers monitoring the pair should be weary of potential further falls for the Pound as not only is the currency under pressure owing to political uncertainty, but economic data is now starting to disappoint which could cause further falls.

So far this week both manufacturing and construction data has shown a slowdown from the previous figures. At 9.30am this morning there will be the release of Services PMI which is arguably more important as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. I think a drop in these figures could result in a sharper sell-off than we’ve seen this week due to the importance of the sector to the UK economy.

Data aside, the leadership contest for the Conservative Party could be the next potential market mover, as the victor’s attitude to Brexit is likely to impact markets. Down under we have seen the Australian economy pick up slightly but there are still expectations of further interest rate cuts later this year after the recent cut, so this is a potential downside for the Aussie Dollar moving forward.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP to Australian Dollar Forecast – UK politics and Australian interest rates

The Pound fell by 5 cents against the Australian Dollar during last month after what has been a very uncertain time politically in the UK.

Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation and we are now in the midst of a leadership election within the Tory party.

The likelihood is that the battle for the next Prime Minister will continue until late July, which means more political uncertainty and this could cause ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates.

The other problem for the Pound is that the next Prime Minister will likely be more of a Brexiteer and this could increase the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Personally speaking I don’t think a no-deal Brexit will happen which means that we’re likely to have to extend the October deadline, have a second referendum or even potentially have another general election. All of these options care likely to cause problems for the Pound.

However, in the very near future the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announcing their latest monetary policy overnight. The strong likelihood is that we’ll see the central bank cut interest rates to their lowest level on record of just 1.25%.

If after the interest rate cut they announce that there could be further rate cuts coming then I think this could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars at the moment.

The Australian economy has been showing signs of problems recently with employment, economic growth and inflation so I think the RBA will signal that there are further rate cuts to be made but depending on the timelines offered this could cause a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates overnight.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of looking to convert Australian Dollars then pay close attention to the decision made as well as the RBA’s accompanying statement.

I have personally worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote then send me an email with an outline of your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the RBA cut interest rates and the impact on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has really been struggling against the Australian Dollar in recent weeks owing to the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK.

The Pound is now trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar in a few weeks and I think we could see further losses ahead for Sterling exchange rates.

Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again meet to decide the future of monetary policy down under.

With the Australian economy coming under more and more pressure recently there is a strong likelihood that we’ll see a cut in interest rates on Tuesday morning.

As this is widely anticipated it may not have the impact on exchange rates that you may think so if you’re banking on a big movement for GBPAUD exchange rates it may not happen.

The main thing to look out for will be the statement from the RBA as if they hint that there are more interest rate cuts planned for the future then this could weaken the Australian Dollar so make sure you pay close attention to the announcement.

Indeed, some analysts think that the RBA should cut interest rates by 0.5% but I think that would be too aggressive for the time being.

We also have the release of Australian retail sales due out on Tuesday morning. Retail sales are a good indicator as to the health of an economy so any further signs of a slowdown will provide the RBA with further justification to cut interest rates.

Then on Wednesday we have another big data release for Australia with the latest GDP data for the first quarter. The expectations are for growth of 2.5% which would be an improvement from the previous quarter of 2.3% for year on year so we could see some volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates during the middle part of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can also help you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian 

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Australian dollar forecast – Increased volatility set to continue…

The Aussie dollar is being pulled in many different directions at present, as the market is encouraged to consider and take onboard many factors in its assessment of the value of the currency. Domestic economic and political concerns are high ahead of the Australian election this weekend, as are global concerns over trade wars and the impact on the Chinese economy. The Aussie dollar is softer this May under the pressure of such events, and I think may well lose further ground.

The elections this weekend could well see the Labour Party winning the election as their messages on climate change and improving health and education spending appear to hit the right notes with voters. This might well see the Australian dollar weaker after the weekend, since it is expected the increase in spending, might lead to worse economic performance and increase pressure on the Australian central bank, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), to cut interest rates.

Looking forward, investors with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might wish to be making some plans ahead of the election this weekend to try and protect or manage their position. You can email myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about this if you wish.

Will the Australian dollar weaken further?

Another concern for me would be the escalating trade wars which so far has seen the US and China, both raise tariffs on each other’s good. Trump has now levied 25% tariffs on US$200 bn worth of Chinese goods, whilst China has retaliated with between 5-25% tariffs on US$60bn worth of goods.

This just adds to the uncertain picture ahead for the global economy and I would expect will lead to a weaker AUD. Whilst the immediate sell off on stock markets and currencies seen earlier this week has been stemmed, with such investments staging a small comeback yesterday, the longer term outlook does not appear rosy.

The Australian dollar is very much supported by a strong global economy, in particular by China and its demand for raw materials. The increased uncertainty globally has seen the Australian economy struggle with inflation at a 16-year low, thereby putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates.

May is presenting much potential for the Australian dollar to come under some pressure, clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might benefit from a quick review with us to discuss the best strategy moving forward. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss more about what might suit you best in this market.

Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of low inflation and the election

The Pound has had a relatively strong week against the Australian Dollar after we saw inflation figures in Australia drop compared to the expectation.

Figures were predicted to come out at 1.8% but they fell to 1.5% and this is likely to add further pressure to the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates sooner than they may have previously considered.

The RBA are under pressure to look at cutting interest rates in an attempt to help the ailing property market as well as trying to control falling inflation so this week’s data is likely to bring an interest rate cut forward and this could happen as early as 7th May when the RBA holds its next monetary policy meeting.

The general expectation for interest rates in Australia is for two cuts this year bringing interest rates to their lowest level on record at just 1%.

However, as Australia goes to the polls next month to vote in the next election on 18th May the RBA may just hold fire from changing monetary policy as to change things now could cause a lot of volatility for the markets if the central bank intervenes too soon.

Current Prime Minister Scott Morrison has tried to defend his economic record during his tenure but with GDP figures slowing down during the last year he is facing questions as to how he can turn the economy round under his stewardship.

As we move into next week the key data release of the week could be Thursday’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. As China is such a huge trading partner with Australia this can often have a large bearing on the value of GBPAUD exchange rates so make sure you’re well prepared for what could be a busy end to the week.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident not only of being able to save you money when exchanging Australian Dollars but also to provide you with further information as to how the market is moving.

For a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Aussie Dollar weakens as rate cuts look likely, how could this impact the Aussie Dollar?

The Australian dollar has had a bad week after hitting the lowest levels of the month against the Pound, and also the lowest levels in 2-months against the US Dollar.

Those of our readers planning on making Pound to Australian Dollar exchanges should be aware that the current levels are within 4-cents from the annual highs, which are also the highest levels seen since June of 2016 making this years annual high the highest levels seen in 34 months.

We’ve witnessed a sell-off in the AUD’s value this week after some disappointing inflation data was released on Wednesday, demonstrating that inflation levels down under are running at a 16 year low. Many economists now believe that there will be at least one interest rate cut this year and that there will be one in June in order to try and stem the weak inflation levels. Up until this point the Reserve Bank of Australia has been loath to hike rates so as to not impact the already overheating property market, especially on the East coast but this week’s data may have been the nail in the coffin.

Moving forward I’m expecting to see AUD continue to soften proving cuts take place, as should they occur the base rate of interest will be at another record low.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Brexit Limbo does not bode well for the Pound

UK & Brussels at Impasse

Although investor concerns may have been eased following the Brexit extension the Pound still remains fragile and I would be surprised to see any significant gains against the Australian Dollar until we have firm news on Brexit. It seems as though the UK and Brussels are at a complete impasse, Theresa May has put several different alternatives to her deal to the House of Commons all of which have failed to gain a majority and Brussels have stone walled the UK stating it is the current deal or nothing.

European Council President, Donald Tusk sent out a warning to his “British friends” saying “please do not waste this time .” It seems as though another extension will be unlikely.

Brexit remains in Limbo and I would not be surprised to see us in a similar situation come October.

The Australian Dollar has its own problems however, Housing prices remain inflated in high wage growth areas such as Melbourne and Sydney. It mean Australians are being forced to spend their hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services.

Australia  has a heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods. The US/China trade war is causing a slowdown in Chinese growth which is having a knock on effect to the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and fluctuations in its price can cause a change in Australian Dollar value, it is worth keeping an eye on if you have a trade involving the Aussie.

Recent news coming from US/China trade talks suggest an end could be in sight. US Treasury Secretary , Steven Mnuchin has stated we could see a conclusion to the trade war in under a month. If this is the case we could see substantial gains for the Aussie.

There are still however key points of contention. The US would like to keep existing tariffs in place in order to keep pressure on China , while Beijing would like them stopped immediately.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 18yrs and FCA registered.
If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

RBA expected to keep rates on hold, but could GBP/AUD see further gains this week?

Over the past week we’ve seen the GBP/AUD rate hit the headlines after the rate hit an almost 3-year high. With Brexit now just a few weeks away the Pound has defied many expectations and strengthened across the board of major currency pairs with GBP/AUD hitting 1.8732 at its highest point. At the time of writing the pair remain north of 1.87 on another strong start for the Pound so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the current 52-week high of 1.8732 tested again, if not today perhaps later this week.

Sterling has been climbing since the path for Brexit became clearer, and a number of MP’s have suggested they could support the Prime Ministers Brexit deal when the next vote takes place. The next meaningful vote will take place on the 12th of this month and after Theresa May lost the last key vote on this matter by a record margin I expect all eyes to be watching the Pound and the outcome of the vote on the 12th.

This evening UK time the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce their next interest rate decision. No changes are expected from the record low of 1.5% but the comments afterwards from the RBA could impact AUD exchange rates so it’s worth being aware of this release as the last time the RBA made some dovish comments and indicated that there could be further cuts we saw the Aussie Dollar sold off.

I expect political updates from the UK especially regarding Brexit to remain the main drivers of currency fluctuations owing to the Brexit being just a few weeks away now.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Australian dollar weaken further?

The Australian dollar has been weaker as poor economic data and also global concerns weigh on the currency. Investors have been closely monitoring developments with the trade wars, which have seen China and the US go head to head threatening increasing tariffs on each other. There has also been the North Korean – US Summit in Vietnam, which has not proved successful for Trump, thereby putting further pressure on the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar is a barometer of global trade which has seen the market moving in the favour of any clients looking to buy the Australian dollar, expectations are for a very busy time ahead, as investors seek greater clarity on what lies ahead. Global trade could now be under greater pressure as investors seek to obtain more certainty around the Trade Wars and the possibility of destabilisation in the North Korean peninsula.

The Australian dollar is also suffering from pressures at home, as investors seek to obtain greater clarity over the outlook globally, and the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, seek to consider cutting interest rates in order to ease the wheels of their economy, in order to be able to manage any possible downturn.

The slowing economy globally, and increased uncertainty in global markets, has seen the Australian economy weaker as it depends so much on strong global demand for its natural resources which include coal and aluminium and other commodities. The Australian economy has been weakening owing to these global concerns and this is now beginning to weigh on the market, as investors seek other shores and remain unconvinced about what lies ahead.

Clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars should be aware of a few volatile sessions ahead, we are in business to help with the planning and execution of any transfers. GBPAUD in particular, could be in for a very volatile month as we await the latest news from the Brexit. Trading levels on GBPAUD could ever surpass 1.90 at the top end of the ranges.

Thank you for reading and please let feel free to contact me if there is anything that you wish to discuss for the future.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk