Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Australian Dollar to Pound exchange rate drops as Australian GDP data disappoints, will there be a reversal of the AUD/GBP trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Australian Dollar has recently strengthened quite considerably against the Pound, although the trend has been reversed this morning after Australian GDP figures failed to impress the markets enough for the bullish run to continue.

During the second quarter of this year the Australian economy grew at a rate of 0.8% which was in line with what economists were expecting, and it appears that the Aussie Dollar will need some more positive data to come out in order for the currency to once again reach its post-Brexit vote highs.

The Pound has been coming under pressure in recent weeks after fears surrounding the final ‘Brexit Bill’ cost have surfaced, as well as uncertainty surrounding how the Brexit negotiations are going so far with some suggesting they have got off to a bad start.

Yesterday data out of the UK showed that the services sector within the UK has hit an 11-month low which is important sector for the UK due to it accounting for around 80% of the UK economy. Despite this negative news the Pound is still climbing against the Aussie Dollar which to me demonstrates that the Aussie Dollar bullish run is potentially coming to an end.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD rise or fall in September?

I have been suspecting that GBPAUD will be falling fairly soon back under 1.60 as the problems ahead for the UK come further to the surface and investors continue to back the Australian dollar. Markets are bracing themselves for further uncertainty over Brexit and with the UK’s economic data going from worse to worse as the uncertainty continues we will undoubtedly see the pound continue to struggle in the future.

With the pound likely to remain at the mercy of Brexit developments and no concrete news expected until 2018, clients holding sterling awaiting any quick turnaround could be waiting some time. A further deterioration in the outlook could really be on the cards, the one thing markets do not like is uncertainty.

Another factor in the GBPAUD equation that is not helping AUD buyers is the Australian dollar is getting stronger. This is because the economic conditions in Australia are very positive and we have also had the currency finding favour from uncertainty elsewhere. Essentially the Australian dollar is used by investors because it offers a very high interest rate. So investors will buy the Australian dollar to get a higher return on their funds.

Australia offers 1.5% interest from the central bank whereas many other countries are offering much less, some are offering zero interest! Therefore in the absence of any possible rises in interest rates elsewhere the Australian dollar is being used by investors to park their cash to benefit from the rates, therefore it strengthens.

So there is a strong likelihood that the continuations of the current trends will weigh further on the GBPAUD exchange rate, I would not be surprised to see the levels slip below 1.60. If you are considering making a transfer buying the Australian dollar in the future I would suggest making some plans sooner than later is the best way forward.

To discuss the latest trends and themes and get the latest news on the rates please feel free to highlight any possible transfers to us. Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss and learn more!

Will Brexit uncertainties limit a Pound to Aussie Dollar recovery? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate is currently trading at the top end of its post-brexit vote lows at the moment, with it’s multi-month low sitting at 1.6171.

It has traded in the late 1.50’s since the vote so now is an important time as we’ll see whether the pair will fall below this mark and hit new brexit lows as the Euro has over the past week.

Under normal circumstances I would expect to see future Sterling gains against the Aussie Dollar due to the overheating housing market concerns, as well as the RBA’s reluctance to amend interest rates to counter this but due to fears surrounding the UK economy in future, I’m not expecting to see the Pound recover back to levels of 1.70 – 1.76 that we saw earlier this year.

Many current financial headlines are centered around the Brexit negotiations and how the European Commission is becoming frustrated with the UK’s lack of clarity regarding the exit strategy, with the UK not willing to show its hand until the Brexit Bill is confirmed.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short-term price movements involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, do feel free to get in touch with me and register your interest, as we’re able to keep clients informed.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will Brexit uncertainty continue to push GBP/AUD lower, and will we see trade levels below 1.60 again this year? (Joseph Wright)

Economists appear to be concerned by the almost daily dropping of the Pound, as uncertainty surrounding the terms of the Brexit deal are putting alot of pressure on the Pounds value.

Many are predicting that the pound will be trading lower into 2018 than current levels, and although this blog is focused predominantly on the GBP/AUD exchange rate I think it’s useful for our readers to know that many major institutions are predicting that the Pound will fall below parity against the Euro for the first time in 2018.

Interestingly earlier this week the National Australian Bank predicted that the Australian Dollar will actually lose value against the Pound between now and the end of the year, although only marginally.

This prediction appears to buck the trend of general negative outlooks surrounding the pound as concerns over the UK economy as we enter Brexit are generally outweighing other factors.

This weekend there could be movement for the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate as a number of key financial figures such as US Fed Chairlady Janet Yellen and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi will be speaking Jackson Hole central banking conference. This will be happening out of hours so expect any major announcements to impact the rates perhaps late tonight or when markets open next week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Aussie slightly lower on RBA comments, where next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The Australian dollar is a little lower this morning as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that Unemployment was a key factor in any decision to raise interest rates and that for now rates would ‘remain steady’ at 1.5%. The raising and lowering of interest rates is a huge factor driving exchange rates and these comments alongside global events have seen the Aussie a little softer. If you are buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans around future trends is key to securing the best rates.

Global events are always something to bear in mind with the Australian dollar but more so at present. With the Australian dollar benefiting and suffering as global sentiments on markets rise and fall the latest developments with North Korea and the US dollar are key. Essentially the US dollar is rising because investors are concerned about the prospect of a nuclear war. As the Australian dollar is used by investors because of its high yield (higher interest rates) in times of uncertainty likes this investors will pull their funds and look to invest in ‘safer’ shores, eg the US dollar.

At present this is not overly pronounced, we are only talking a couple of cents off the more recent levels. However any deterioration in the North Korean situation could easily the AUD lose value sharply. There is some important US economic data due at 13.30 UK time today which might lead to some swings on USD/AUD which would in turn influence GBPAUD exchange rates.

All in all I expect the pound to continue to struggle but in the absence of any new fresh bad news and a slightly more dovish RBA, we could see GBPAUD gently drift higher. Next week’s UK Inflation data, Retail Sales, Unemployment and then Australia’s Unemployment data could all be market movers. If you have a transfer now or in 6 months, making some plans around up coming events is key to getting the most for your money.

Whether on amounts of 10,000 GBP or multi-millions, if you have a transfer we can secure preferential commercial rates of exchange and offer practical assistance with the timing of when to lock in a rate.

Thank you for reading and for more information please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBP/AUD return to its March lows and trade in the 1.50’s once again? (Joseph Wright)

Unfortunately for those planning on exchanging Pounds into Australian Dollars in the short term future, the Pound appears to be on track to return to it’s post-Brexit vote lows.

It was back in March when GBP/AUD broke below 1.60 before recovering. The Pound is coming under pressure against most major currency pairs at the moment with just a few exceptions such as the Swiss Franc.

For those with a need to exchange the Pound into Aussie Dollars its worth noting that the Pound hit fresh lows against the Euro during today’s trading session, so if the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is to follow suite the pair have another 5 or so cents before that happens.

At 11am tomorrow there could be movement between the GBP/AUD pair as an Inflation Report Hearing in the UK will take place, and due to the inflation levels in the UK currently under the microscope due to the fall in the value of the Pound I expect investors to listen closely for hints at future monetary policy in the UK. I wouldn’t completely rule out an interest rate hike this year if need be and talk of one could provide the Pound with a much needed boost.

On Thursday afternoon there will be a GDP estimate figure for the past 3-months to July, and this release comes after a bout of data on Instruction and Manufacturing which could also impact Sterling/Aussie exchange rates should the outcomes deviate greatly from expectations.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and Aussie Dollar, do feel free to get in touch as I’ll be happy to discuss our commercial exchange rates with you, along with my opinion on potential future price fluctuations. You can email me an outline of your plans to jxw@currencies.co.uk or even provide with a telephone number if you wish to discuss it as soon as possible. 

Pound to Australian Dollar improves despite IMF downgrade, is this a sign that the Pound is oversold? (Joseph Wright)

I wrote last week about how some analysts as well as members of the Reserve Bank of Australia are becoming concerned that the Aussie Dollar is becoming overvalued and higher than it perhaps should be, and I believe we will continue to hear similar commentary in the upcoming months.

Earlier in the year the Pound to Aussie rate hit the mid 1.70’s whereas the pair are now trading closer to 1.50 than 1.60. Since the Brexit the lowest the pair have fallen to is to a mid-market level of 1.59 so i don’t think we can rule out another move to these low levels as we don’t require the GBP/AUD pair to do something they haven’t in recent history.

In the early hours of this morning the Pound started off on the back foot after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded both the UK and the US growth forecasts for the rest of this year.

Throughout the day though the Pound has climbed, not just against the Aussie but across the board as the Pound as gained against all major currency pairs today.

Despite this boost I think that we could see the Pound trade at lower levels, especially if the UK inflation rate continues to under-perform and the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of England continues to dwindle.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates still testing lower levels (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered recently, alongside the rest of the Pound’s pairings, and whilst currently sitting just above 1.64, has hit 1.62 just hours ago.

The underlying factors are there to justify the move. For one the Australian economy is enjoying an unrivalled period of sustained growth and the stability still seems there.

Just today it was reported that full-time jobs has surged to keep unemployment near four-year low, with 14,000 jobs added to the economy in June. The figures are actually stronger than they seem. Actually 62,000 full-time positions were added, whilst 48,000 temporary positions were lost (some of these becoming full-time positions and others being lost due to low tourist season).

What does this mean for rates moving forward?

With the fundamentals established for the AUD to at least maintain its value, the fortune for Australian Dollar buyers using Pounds lies in UK based developments.

We are now into the second round of the first phase of Brexit negotiations. Statements for the Eurozone state explicitly that sufficient progress has to be made here before we can address the key issue which markets are most interested in – trade.

These include the so called ‘divorce bill’, rights for citizens and the Irish border question.

The end of the first talks were formalities, this second round will be very telling at the pace talks are expected to proceed through. Productive conversations should yield greater confidence in Sterling, and the converse should lead to parallel drops.

Personally, based on how talks have progressed so far, I believe that sellers should be facing opportunities next week.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Australian Dollar based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

You can contact me directly by calling +44 1494 787 478 and asking the reception team to speak to Joshua.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

What factors could cause the Aussie Dollar to weaken? (Joseph Wright)

Last week the Pound found itself under pressure after a raft of bad data out of the UK has resulted in concerns in a slowing down of the UK economy.

Data showed slowdowns in the manufacturing, construction and importantly the services sector and although the readings were in line with previous readings when GDP is running at 0.4%, the economy is slowing as we enter the 3rd quarter which is a negative sign for those hoping the Pound will climb as the year progresses.

The Reserve Bank of Australia disappointed Aussie Dollar bulls and those hoping the Aussie Dollar will climb last week. Many had hoped for indications of future interest rate hikes from the RBA but these comments never came, with many analysts now confident of a rate hike this year.

The price of Iron Ore has firmed up recently offering AUD some support, but the mixed messages the markets are receiving regarding China’s economy (and whether or not the figures they release are 100% truthful) is likely to weigh on the Aussie Dollars value.

The issues surrounding the housing market overheating in parts of Australia is also likely to be a talking point, and it’s quick market movements that we can help our clients take advantage of in a number of different ways, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this in further detail.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Disappointing data this week results in the Pound weakening, is the UK economy slowing down? (Joseph Wright)

Throughout the week there has been a series of disappointing data releases out of the UK, along with data this morning from Halifax confirming that property prices within the UK have fallen by 1% with UK house price growth falling to a four-year low.

We found out earlier this morning that manufacturing production within the UK fell last month from the month before, whilst industrial production has also fallen on an annual basis.

The construction sector has also experienced a slowdown recently, and with the raft of bad data released this week it may leave many within the marketplace re-evaluating whether there is much of a chance of an interest rate hike this year.

Unicredit (a major Italian lender) this week forecasted a potential spike of up to 4% if there is a rate hike this year, although personally I cannot see this happening irrespective of the UK’s inflation levels and I think that the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate is more likely to fall between now and the end of the year.

There is talk of a slowdown in the Aussie economy also, but with the UK entering such a crucial time with Brexit negotiations I cannot see Australia’s issues overpowering those of the UK.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.