Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

GBP/AUD When to move? (Daniel Johnson)

Is there still a rate hike still on the cards form the BOE?

We have seen Sterling fall in value against the Aussie of late following poor retail and inflation data. There was a host of positive data before this including a significant increase in average wage growth and unemployment hitting a 43yr low. We also have a transitional Brexit deal all but agreed with the UK being granted single market access until full exit from the European Union.

It was almost nailed on there would be a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation slowed however, falling below average wage growth and retail sales was predicted to come in at -0.5% in at arrived at a shocking -1.2%. Mark Carney spoke on the BBC following the retail figures and said there is the possibility of monetary policy change, but did not mention May. The markets were fairly stagnant following the data release, but Carney’s words or lack of them caused Sterling to weaken against the majority of major currencies.

Despite this a rate hike is already factored into current levels, if the hike occurs do not expect a huge movement in the pound’s favour, the market moves on rumour as well as fact. The danger is if there is no hike. The pound will lose significant value. It is always worth keeping an eye on Carney’s speech after the rate decision as any hint at a change in monetary policy can cause volatility.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued ant that we are only seeing current levels due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. AUD has been considered an investors choice due to it’s high levels of interest, but now with the USD promising higher returns and further rate hikes combined with it’s reputation as a safe haven currency it is almost a no brainer to move to the  US Dollar. I doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates until 2019 at the earliest.

There is also the ongoing trade war with the US and China. The new tariffs could hit Chinese growth which will in turn hit the Aussie as Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore.

I personally think short to medium term  GBP/AUD will be stuck between buoyancy levels of 1.80-85.

If you are an AUD buyer and have to move short term, aim to move in the 1.84s.

AUD sellers, I would not hang on for significant gains as I feel the Aussie is fragile. Aim for 1.82 on Interbank.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate trading at annual high, will the pair now climb higher? (Joseph Wright)

The exchange rate for changing Pounds into Aussie Dollars has traded within half-a-cent from its annual high today, as the almost hit 1.85 again during today’s trading session.

As many of our regular readers will be aware, sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved quite considerably recently after roughly a month ago the UK and EU Brexit negotiators came to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. This was a topic that limited the Pound’s value prior tot he agreement, as there were concerns that there would be a Hard Brexit which most likely would’ve resulted in a weaker Pound due to the shock to the UK economy.

Now that there is likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month, sentiment is improving as the UK economy is showing signs of picking up, even if the Brexit has slowed the economy somewhat.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb from its current levels as I think AUD will continue to lose value throughout the year. Now that the Fed Reserve has begun hiking interest rates in the US, AUD is likely to lose some of its attractiveness as it will no longer be offering one of the highest interest rates within the developed world. At the same time trade tensions between the US and China are likely to limit upside for AUD in my opinion.

There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates to 1.75% at the end of this year, although up until this stage the RBA has been skeptical due to the overheating property market down under, particularly on the East coast. With the RBA being weary of the effects this could have on the Australian economy, I think they will leave it late before making an amendment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

RBA keep Rates on hold (Daniel Johnson)

Reluctance to change Monetary Policy could cause AUD weakness.

In the early hours we saw the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) Interest Rate Decision. Rates remained unchanged at 1.5%, which was no surprise considering current economic conditions down under. Retail Sales data came in just before the decision and was some way below expectations. There was predicted to be a rise from – 0.5% to 0.4%, but there was only an increase to 0.1% which caused the Aussie to suffer.

The Australian Dollar has been a favourite with investors due to its offer of relatively high returns, however the US Dollar now seems to be gaining preference as it offers the same returns and is also considered a safe haven currency.

The Federal Reserve also has a far more aggressive forecast in terms of hiking rates and  it has been rumoured we could see as many as three more hikes in 2018 which does not bode well for the Australian Dollar.

Living costs in high wage growth areas are causing Australians to spend there hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services. There needs to be an increase in average wage growth before a rate hike can be justified. I am doubtful of any rate hikes by the RBA until 2019.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Still waiting for GBPAUD to hit 1.80!

Well readers forgive me for my optimism, I have been banging the 1.80 drum for some weeks now. It just proves how tricky the markets are to predict. I still feel there is a very good shot to hit it and I still believe we will hit this at some point in the coming weeks, next week’s RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision could be important.

Critical too will be the outcome from Theresa May’s speech tomorrow which could easily see the pound higher. Personally, I feel the market will either not react much or will possibly move lower on any news. I believe much of the good news and sentiment over Brexit has been priced in already and today was a perfect example of how quickly the mood can change.

Whilst I remain upbeat for the 1.80 we are still at a very good level compared to the 1.60’s and even 1.50’s some client have had to endue in recent years. If you are aiming to buy Australian dollars at 1.80 please let me know via my personal email jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can set you up an alert so you don’t miss the price.

The outlook for the GBPAUD pairing in March will also need to contend with the developments on US interest rates which would see the US dollar stronger and potentially the Aussie weaker. There is a real correlation between the two currencies and clients looking to buy or sell AUD should be aware of the potential for this element to trigger movement and volatility.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate recover back to pre-Brexit levels anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

There has been a 1 and a half cent difference between the high and low for GBP/AUD today, as the pair appear to be continuing to decide which direction to move in next.

Sterling has performed in a mixed fashion against the majority of major currency pairs today and I think the economic data released this morning is perhaps one of the reasons for this.

This morning the office for national statistics (ONS) reported that annualised UK Inflation figures for January showed 3%, justifying the Bank of England’s concerns regarding the rising rates of inflation. This was above the expectation of 2.9% and and considerably above the BoE’s 2% inflationary target figure.

The potential for another rate hike from the BoE is now more realistic, and with wage growth now beginning to show signs of an improvement I think there is a chance of it happening this year which is why the pound has been climbing.

GBP/AUD is currently just under 1.80, and if the pair breach this key level I can imagine seeing the rate break through into the 1.80’s even if it’s proving a stubborn barrier up until this point. A move towards 2.00 would be back to pre-Brexit levels, and should AUD continue to weaken I think seeing GBP/AUD closer to this mark sometime throughout 2018 isn’t something to be ruled out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Inflation to influence GBPAUD exchange rates

Tomorrow morning the UK will release their latest inflation numbers and a slight fall is to be expected. Normally a slight fall would lead to a weakening pound however I expect a fall in inflation could strengthen the pounds position against the Australian dollar. My reasoning is that the Bank of England last week announced they expect inflation to fall and wage growth to rise, which will lead to an interest rate hike. The release is at 9.30am for further information in regards to the inflation release feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Later in the week (Wednesday) Boris Johnson is set to address the public in regards to Brexit. The aim of the speech is to unite remain and leave voters. Past history leads me to think that Mr Johnson may go off topic, especially if he is asked about Michel Barnier’s comments last week. For clients buying Australian dollars with pounds, I would be tempted to take advantage after the inflation numbers and not wait for Mr Johnson’s speech.

Economic data releases are thin for Australia until Thursday at 1.30am in the morning. Unemployment and employment change numbers are to be released. Unemployment numbers are set to fall to 5.3%, which is fantastic for the Australian economy. Employment change numbers are set to show a slight decline however I expect the Unemployment numbers to outweigh the employment change numbers, therefore I expect a positive morning for the Australian dollar.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/AUD remains at 1.77 after RBA opts to hold interest rates (Joseph Wright)

The Reserve Bank of Australia last night chose to keep interest rates unchanged, which was the expected outcome from economists leaving the currency markets unchanged at 1.5%.

This was the first chance the RBA had to make a change this year, and the base rate has remained at 1.5% for around a year and a half now. Many central banks have opted to hike interest rates in recent months, and should this continue it will result in the Australian interest rates being uncompetitive and therefore AUD weakness in my opinion.

Last year AUD benefited from offering one of the highest interest rates in the developed world. Investors are keen to hold funds in a high yielding currency but should AUD lose its competitive edge, it’s likely that money will be taken out of the Aussie Dollar and we’ll see it fall.

Politics also have the potential to move the GBP/AUD pair, especially at the moment as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is in London to discuss the UK’s plans and proposals for Brexit this week.

Those following the Pounds value should be aware of this and the potential it has to impact GBP exchange rates should any key comments be made, and do feel free to register your interest with me if you wish to be updated in the event of a major rate spike.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What can we expect next for GBPAUD exchange rates?

The pound has risen to some of the best levels against the Australian dollar since December. These levels are not far from the post Referendum high of 1.7950. If you have a transfer to consider buying or selling the pound against the Australian dollar, then making good plans in advance is wise. This currency pair could easily be over 1.80 in the next few weeks or back towards 1.70.

The pound is really driving the recent improvement as expectations over Brexit solidify, the expectation is now that the UK will be able to get some form of softer Brexit. This week at Davos we have had Angela Merkel and also Philip Hammond talking very positively about the future of Brexit, this has helped the pound to rise.

The Australian dollar could come under much interest in the coming weeks as we have the latest Australian interest rate decision. Tuesday morning 6th February sees the first Australian interest rate decision for the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) this year. Expectations are for the RBA to discuss their interest rate plans and some do expect a hike this year.

With the pound bound to come under pressure soon enough from a shift in tone as the reality of Brexit bites back, any clients looking to buy Australian dollars should be tracking these developments very closely. Economic data can cause exchange rates to change suddenly and sometimes by up to 1 or 2 cents. Being able to plan and manage your transfer around such improvements is key to getting the most for your money.

For more information on the latest trends and assistance securing and tracking the very best rates of exchange, please contact myself Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBPAUD breaks through 1.75 (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last three months GBPAUD exchange rates have fluctuated 8 1/2 cents which has given clients that are buying or selling Australian dollars opportunity. At present GBPAUD has broken through 1.75 and I expect the pound could continue to make further inroads against the Australian dollar.

This week Iron ore prices have showed a slight decline and today Iron Ore is 0.8% down. The Australian economy relies heavily on Iron Ore and Australian dollar exchange rates have a direct correlation. Many forecasters are split to whether Iron ore  over time will rise or fall. Ultimately it all comes down to how much China buy throughout the year. For many years forecasters have suggested a slowdown for China is on the cards but they continue to produce the economic numbers.

Tomorrow morning the UK release key economic data releases in the form of average earning and unemployment rate. Unemployment remains at record lows which is fantastic for UK exchange rates, even though 0 hour contracts are included within these figures. However the average earnings numbers are the concern for the UK. Inflation is outpacing average earning and the UK public are feeling it. If this trend continues further pressure will put on the Bank of England and a change in monetary policy could occur.

Longer term Brexit negotiations will drive the price of GBPAUD. I personally believe that the UK will come to an agreement with the EU therefore a sustained period of 1.80 towards the end the year could be on the cards.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.