Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

GBP/AUD hits lowest level in 10-days as Brexit issues weigh on the Pound

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest levels of the past 10-days. This has happened after GBP/AUD hit an annual high of just over 1.87 last week, which was also the highest level since the major drop in June of 2016 when the Brexit vote outcome was announced.

Sterling had hit such high levels against AUD as hopes of a Brexit deal being agreed shortly were high. These hopes are now fading and GBP exchange rates have softened across the board of major currency pairs as it now look likely that UK and EU negotiators will not be able to agree on the terms of the Brexit deal by the EU’s deadline.

Later this week there will be an EU Summit in Brussels and the main focus is expected to be the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will give a speech to the EU leaders regarding her plans and the progress made so far. There will also be meeting behind closed door’s that she isn’t invited to, and depending on the outcome of the recent negotiations and the EU Summit this week I think there could be movement for the GBP to AUD rate.

The Aussie Dollar hasn’t lost a dramatic amount of value against the Pound as markets will still be holding out for a Brexit deal by November, but seeing GBP/AUD drop over the past few trading days is worth considering for those of our clients planning on making a transfer.

From the Australian side there will be Employment data out of Thursday at 1.30am UK time. If you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Price changes for GBP/AUD likely to be driven by the Pound over the next 24-hours

Those of our clients and regular readers following the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate should pay close attention to UK politics today, as I believe the next spike in the GBP/AUD’s value is likely to be driven by UK politics.

Yesterday all eyes were on Boris Johnson’s speech at the Conservative Party Conference, and he didn’t disappoint as he gave another harsh critique of the ‘Chequers plan’ devised by the current UK Prime Minister, Theresa May. Today there could be movement for Sterling exchange rates against all major currency pairs as it’s the final day of the Conservative Party Conference, and Theresa May is scheduled to speak with Brexit being the main focus.

Yesterday Boris Johnson was supportive of May’s leadership but he once again urged her to move away from the Chequers plan she has devised and suggested that she focuses more on a Canadian style deal. I expect her to be questioned on his comments and the markets to follow her responses closely. With Brexit now just around the corner and expectations of a deal being in place by November, I expect to see Brexit headlines dominate financial media and for it to be the main driver of the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate.

On the Australian side we’ve seen the currency soften over the past year, mostly owing to Aussie Dollar weakness. The greater the gap between US and Australian exchange rates the more likely this trend will continue, so those following the strength of the Aussie Dollar should also pay attention to US monetary policy and this is something we can help our readers with should they wish.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Brexit Clarity could cause further gains for Sterling against AUD. (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/AUD – We have seen Sterling strengthen over the Australian Dollar of late, breaching the 1.80 resistance point and remaining above it. One of the main catalysts is positive news on Brexit. Chief EU Negotiator, Michel Barnier stated recently that he believes it is realistic that a Brexit deal could be in place in 6-8 weeks. It has also been revealed that there maybe a solution to the Irish border. There maybe the opportunity to use technology to solve the problem using barcodes on shipping containers to verify where goods have come from and where they are going to.

The Australian economy does have it’s own worries however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s exports, with China engaged in a trade war with the US this will hit Chinese growth which in turn will hit the Australian economy. With global economic uncertainty causing investors to seek safer haven investments the Australian Dollar is not as popular as it once was. The US Dollar is the destination of choice offering the highest 10yr bond yields for several years and there is the prospect of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year.

There is also problems with consumer spending. High wage growth areas are becoming increasingly more expensive which is forcing Australian’s to spend there funds on necessities rather than luxury goods.

I feel Sterling could be set for further gains against the Aussie, but be wary as Brexit talks intensify we could see volatility. If you are buying the Aussie short term aim for high 1.83s, possibly 1.84. I feel 1.85 will be difficult to breach unless we receive firm news on Brexit.

If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Could Australian dollar weakness could now be over?

The Australian dollar had been struggling in recent months as investors began to unwind trading positions that positioned the Australian dollar to be used for investors in carry-trades. The carry-trade is where investors borrow in a low yielding currency to invest in a high yielding currency. As sentiments change this has now been unwound presenting some big shifts in the currency markets.

With the US dollar now rising higher as they raise interest rates, and are expected to raise further, the US dollar is now attracting more investment. I feel therefore that the recent weakness on the Australian dollar which has now abated could have been the result of much of the more recent strength being eroded. This move of late which has seen the Australian dollar rising could now present some much better opportunities to sell AUD for well-prepared clients.

Some key evidence of this would stem from the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) who are believed to be in a process of looking to raise interest rates longer term. The overall picture on the markets is now much more positive for the longer-term perspective for the raising of Australian interest rates. This would see the GBPAUD rate potentially dropping further which might see it hit closer to the 1.75 level in the coming weeks.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars for pounds, please speak to me to discuss the requirements. Next week is some key news coming from the UK economy which might trigger some big movements on GBPAUD levels so any clients looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar should be prepared for a busy week.

For more information on the best rates and further market insight and strategy to maximise your position, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Strong oil prices offer the Australian Dollar a welcome boost, where to next for AUD exchange rates?

The Australian Dollar has been supported overnight, which will be a welcome relief for those hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar as the AUD/USD pair hit an 11-month low just yesterday.

AUD exchange rates have been struggling this year as the global economy picks up and monetary policy around the world tightens. Now that the US Dollar offers a higher rate of return investors are keen to hold funds in USD as opposed to the AUD as not only do they get a better rate of return, but the USD is considered more of a safe haven currency.

GBP/AUD hit a post-Brexit vote high recently trading in the 1.85’s, although it’s since slipped from these levels and has fallen further overnight owing to AUD strength as stock prices rose and the value of oil is rising. With the Australian economy being export driven and dependent on trade with it’s nearby neighbors, this is a positive so AUD understandably gained off the back of it.

There could be a lot of movement for the Aussie Dollar against the Pound today, as there is a Bank of England meeting at midday. Although no interest change is expected, I think we could see movement if any further amendments are alluded to.

There aren’t any major data releases out of Australia before the weekend, but if you wish to discuss what events could influence the Aussie Dollars value over the next few weeks do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/AUD When to move? (Daniel Johnson)

Is there still a rate hike still on the cards form the BOE?

We have seen Sterling fall in value against the Aussie of late following poor retail and inflation data. There was a host of positive data before this including a significant increase in average wage growth and unemployment hitting a 43yr low. We also have a transitional Brexit deal all but agreed with the UK being granted single market access until full exit from the European Union.

It was almost nailed on there would be a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May. Inflation slowed however, falling below average wage growth and retail sales was predicted to come in at -0.5% in at arrived at a shocking -1.2%. Mark Carney spoke on the BBC following the retail figures and said there is the possibility of monetary policy change, but did not mention May. The markets were fairly stagnant following the data release, but Carney’s words or lack of them caused Sterling to weaken against the majority of major currencies.

Despite this a rate hike is already factored into current levels, if the hike occurs do not expect a huge movement in the pound’s favour, the market moves on rumour as well as fact. The danger is if there is no hike. The pound will lose significant value. It is always worth keeping an eye on Carney’s speech after the rate decision as any hint at a change in monetary policy can cause volatility.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued ant that we are only seeing current levels due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. AUD has been considered an investors choice due to it’s high levels of interest, but now with the USD promising higher returns and further rate hikes combined with it’s reputation as a safe haven currency it is almost a no brainer to move to the  US Dollar. I doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates until 2019 at the earliest.

There is also the ongoing trade war with the US and China. The new tariffs could hit Chinese growth which will in turn hit the Aussie as Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore.

I personally think short to medium term  GBP/AUD will be stuck between buoyancy levels of 1.80-85.

If you are an AUD buyer and have to move short term, aim to move in the 1.84s.

AUD sellers, I would not hang on for significant gains as I feel the Aussie is fragile. Aim for 1.82 on Interbank.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate trading at annual high, will the pair now climb higher? (Joseph Wright)

The exchange rate for changing Pounds into Aussie Dollars has traded within half-a-cent from its annual high today, as the almost hit 1.85 again during today’s trading session.

As many of our regular readers will be aware, sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved quite considerably recently after roughly a month ago the UK and EU Brexit negotiators came to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. This was a topic that limited the Pound’s value prior tot he agreement, as there were concerns that there would be a Hard Brexit which most likely would’ve resulted in a weaker Pound due to the shock to the UK economy.

Now that there is likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month, sentiment is improving as the UK economy is showing signs of picking up, even if the Brexit has slowed the economy somewhat.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb from its current levels as I think AUD will continue to lose value throughout the year. Now that the Fed Reserve has begun hiking interest rates in the US, AUD is likely to lose some of its attractiveness as it will no longer be offering one of the highest interest rates within the developed world. At the same time trade tensions between the US and China are likely to limit upside for AUD in my opinion.

There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates to 1.75% at the end of this year, although up until this stage the RBA has been skeptical due to the overheating property market down under, particularly on the East coast. With the RBA being weary of the effects this could have on the Australian economy, I think they will leave it late before making an amendment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

RBA keep Rates on hold (Daniel Johnson)

Reluctance to change Monetary Policy could cause AUD weakness.

In the early hours we saw the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) Interest Rate Decision. Rates remained unchanged at 1.5%, which was no surprise considering current economic conditions down under. Retail Sales data came in just before the decision and was some way below expectations. There was predicted to be a rise from – 0.5% to 0.4%, but there was only an increase to 0.1% which caused the Aussie to suffer.

The Australian Dollar has been a favourite with investors due to its offer of relatively high returns, however the US Dollar now seems to be gaining preference as it offers the same returns and is also considered a safe haven currency.

The Federal Reserve also has a far more aggressive forecast in terms of hiking rates and  it has been rumoured we could see as many as three more hikes in 2018 which does not bode well for the Australian Dollar.

Living costs in high wage growth areas are causing Australians to spend there hard earned money on necessities rather than luxury goods and services. There needs to be an increase in average wage growth before a rate hike can be justified. I am doubtful of any rate hikes by the RBA until 2019.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Still waiting for GBPAUD to hit 1.80!

Well readers forgive me for my optimism, I have been banging the 1.80 drum for some weeks now. It just proves how tricky the markets are to predict. I still feel there is a very good shot to hit it and I still believe we will hit this at some point in the coming weeks, next week’s RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision could be important.

Critical too will be the outcome from Theresa May’s speech tomorrow which could easily see the pound higher. Personally, I feel the market will either not react much or will possibly move lower on any news. I believe much of the good news and sentiment over Brexit has been priced in already and today was a perfect example of how quickly the mood can change.

Whilst I remain upbeat for the 1.80 we are still at a very good level compared to the 1.60’s and even 1.50’s some client have had to endue in recent years. If you are aiming to buy Australian dollars at 1.80 please let me know via my personal email jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can set you up an alert so you don’t miss the price.

The outlook for the GBPAUD pairing in March will also need to contend with the developments on US interest rates which would see the US dollar stronger and potentially the Aussie weaker. There is a real correlation between the two currencies and clients looking to buy or sell AUD should be aware of the potential for this element to trigger movement and volatility.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.