Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Pound strengthens against the Australian Dollar after Friday’s falls (Joshua Privett)

We begin the week with GBP/AUD rates operating between the normal boundaries of little notable movement, with the Pound recording just over a cent of gains against the Australian Dollar from where we began the day.

The final two weeks of each month are normally devoid of economic data, so this is traditionally the ‘quiet’ period of the month. Yet due to the ripples caused by the Brexit result, whilst rates seem range-bound between 1.74-1.77, there is still significant movement each day. With less liquidity in financial markets this is largely inevitable.

Rates rose today with news that financial markets in the UK had stabilised following the poor business confidence figures released in the UK on Friday. Even BBC commented on the bizarre relationship that whilst the Pound strengthened stock markets in the UK fell. But this is simply another lesson that markets operate on expectation – if the market drops lower than expected, then much of the weakness already priced into the market will be released and the Pound will be allowed more breathing room.

The late announcement today of talks for a free trade deal with China so soon into the new Government’s efforts to re-stabilize the economy also helped to shore-up confidence. This strength may even filter into tomorrow morning’s trading with Asian markets still yet to trade on the back of the news as they were closed when the information was released.

It is difficult to gauge how markets behave during these quieter periods, but often movements are minimal andI think we can expect that quieter periods, with the Brexit out of the spotlight will allow some of the pressure on the Pound to be lifted.

Some further opportunities for AUD buyers may present themselves on Thursday morning in the UK with the release of inflation figures for the Australian economy overnight – market expectations are for a fall from 1.3% to 1.1%, and this confirmation may see the Dollar weaken further (adding fuel to the argument that there may be an interest rate cut next month) making it a cheaper prospect.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar requirement, whether buying or selling, should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Weak business data weighs on Sterling’s value, with further GBP weakness now likely (Joseph Wright)

Earlier this morning the UK released it’s first set of financial data since the shock announcement of the ‘Brexit’ decision.

The news released doesn’t bode well for the UK economy in the short to medium term, or Sterling strength for that matter as PMI figures for both Services and Manufacturing have shown a decline from the previous figures, with both demonstrating a contracting economy with the Manufacturing figures coming out worse than expected by analysts.

I put the declines down to simple uncertainty, with many tentative to put funds into UK business whilst the countries future remains unclear.

Moving forward I expect data such as this mornings new release to continue to weigh on the Pounds value, and I’m not expecting to see Sterling trading above 1.80 once again anytime soon, perhaps not even this year. Sterling sellers hoping to see the levels of 2.00 once again may be waiting for a long time, although a further cut to Australian Interest Rates could push the Pound up comparatively although the UK is also likely to cut interest rates, and that could occur as soon as August the 4th which would likely cancel out any potential gains for the Pound against the Aussie dollar anyway.

For Aussie dollar sellers, it’s hard to tell when the best time to trade will be as we are around 5-6 cents above the lowest level hit this year. For those not looking to take any risks it may be idea to take advantage of what are almost 3 year highs for the Aussie dollar.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

Will the Pound continue to get stronger against the Australian Dollar? (Joshua Privett)

Since the beginning of last week the Pound has been enjoying a strengthening trend against all currency pairings, including the Australian Dollar. Like the effects of the Brexit on the Pound, the momentum from this comes from politics.

Last Monday it was announced that a two-month leadership contest for a new Prime Minister in the UK will be avoided, and clearly markets were impressed by the quick turnaround. By Friday a new Prime Minister had been sworn in, a new government formed, and a new Ministerial position created to manage the UK’s exit from the EU, but in a gradual manner.

All the above served to make the Pound stronger, with markets realizing that there is now a buffer which will allow them to act with some degree of normality in the UK until next year.

However, the positive news on the Pound has been muted against the Australian Dollar, which is enjoying higher demand, both for its currency and in its stock markets.

With an interest rate over there of 1.75%, which for Australia is deemed ‘historically low’, but compared to the UK, which is flirting with lowering theirs to 0.25%, the disparity in demand between the two is understandable.

Economics is also playing some part. This morning produced a mixed bag for the UK, with a dramatic reduction in public borrowing, but also an equally dramatic fall in retail sales figures for the UK. It seems that despite the seasonal weather, families saving for the summer months have kept wallets closed and reduced spending activity for the UK and hurt the Pound’s value in doing so.

So for the past few days rates have largely been in limbo. There are a number of political forks in the road which may affect the value of the Pound. Will the Scottish call for another Referendum? How will trade negotiations go? Will more countries such as Australia welcome the ability to create a trade deal with the UK? So watch this space.

To remove all risk, whether buying or selling Australian Dollars, moving sooner rather than later secures a rate of exchange you are either happy with for buying Australian Dollars, or more likely selling. The current trend seems to be a stabilizing one on the Pound.

If you would like to discuss the options open to you for your transfer, to explore current GBP/AUD forecasts in further detail, or simply to hear a live, competitive quote, I can be reached on +44 1494 787 478 – ask a member of my team for Joshua.

jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Rates Flat Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have levelled out somewhat following last week’s decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to keep UK interest rates on hold at 0.5%. This, alongside the political stability bough about by Theresa May’s appointment as Prime Minister, has helped Sterling gain some much needed market support. GBP/AUD rate shave spiked back above 1.75 at today’s high and whilst the Pound clearly remains under pressure, at least last week’s developments have helped to curb any further aggressive loses in the short-term.

Whilst I do not anticipate a sustainable recovery above 1.80 for the Pound under current market conditions, I would be extremely tempted to secure any short to medium-term AUD sell positons, due to the huge improvement we’ve seen over the past few months. GBP/AUD has always been a relatively volatile currency pair and recent events, both politically and economically, have only enhanced this trend. The Pound has suffered due to the Brexit result and this uncertainty is likely to hang over the UK economy for many months if not years to come and investors risk appetite has diminished as a result.

Despite the current downturn in the UK economy I am still wary about putting too much faith in the AUD, which is so reliant on Australia’s economic wellbeing and trade links to China, that any negative domino effect can knock it of course extremely quickly. The AUD remains fragile and with so much uncertainty and the ‘cloak & dagger’ scenario that surrounds the Chinese economy, I wouldn’t be relying on the current trend continuing indefinitely.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/AUD Rates Spike Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have spiked today, following the latest Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent minutes. It was widely anticipated that BoE governor Mark Carney would announce a cut in the UK’s base interest rate to 0.25% but when this did not occur, the Pound immediately gained support against the AUD, with the pair moving up 1.7608 at the high.

This move brought much needed respite to those clients holding GBP, following weeks of negative downturns following the recent EU referendum and subsequent Brexit decision. The Pound immediately gained traction and this was intensified when the BoE decided to keep their monetary policy programme on hold, allowing the Pound to rise by almost 5 cents from the day’s low. These gains were diluted by the close of European trading but it is clear investor confidence has improved and whilst I do not expect a move through 1.80 under current market conditions, those clients holding GBP will certainly feel more confident about their positions.

The Pound has struggled for the most part since the Brexit decision but has gained some traction this week prior to today’s decision, following the political stability brought about by Theresa May’s early appointment as Prime Minister. This has removed one layer of uncertainty and brought some investor confidence back to GBP and my gut feeling is BoE may have changed their stance slightly, due to the change in the unexpected change in the political landscape.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Cabinet appointments produce mixed bag for GBP/AUD (Joshua Privett)

The quick turnaround in leadership contact, to new Prime Minister, to new Cabinet has improved confidence in the Pound, translating into better GBP/AUD buying rates.

Yet there is a duel effect on the Pound to be wary of today, with the Bank of England interest rate decision coming out at midday, with the potential for a cut likely to put pressure on the Pound as the day wears on.

Theresa May’s appointment of the Cabinet created some roller-coasters last night for buying Australian Dollar exchange rates. Tellingly, the announcement of Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary caused the Pound to fall quite heavily, with GBP/AUD reaching close to 1.70. This was the first announcement of an outward looking role in the Cabinet, and it went to the most prominent Leave campaigner preceding the Referendum. The Pound likely suffered due to fears that a Cabinet stacked with ‘Leavers’ would rush towards a Brexit and unsettle markets.

However, these fears were quickly squashed. The next announcement of David Davis as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union brought some stability back to the fore. Whilst a Eurosceptic he has publicly stated that his endeavors to leave the EU will be practical and gradual, stating that Article 50 will not be enacted until 2017 at the earliest, and emphasized trade negotiations to begin immediately both with the EU and outside it.

However, today may present some further opportunities for AUD sellers, with financial markets pricing in an 80% likelihood of an interest rate cut, set to put severe pressure on the Pound given that rates have already been at record lows for years. The Australian Dollar will likely benefit off the back of the news through increased demand, as, if the UK decides to cut rates, Australian interest rates will be 7 times higher than that of the UK.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a GBP/AUD buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to receive a live, competitive quote for your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief phone call could save you thousands on you transfer. The interest rate decision comes out at 12:00 UK time.

AUD sellers can also get in contact to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Sterling return within the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Theresa May’s Appointment as Prime Minister causes Sterling Strength (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Post-Brexit Sterling has lost considerable value against the Aussie. Theresa May is due to be sworn in as the United Kingdom’s new PM later today. This has caused a much needed Sterling rally against the Australian Dollar with GBP/AUD breaking through 1.75 earlier in the today’s trading. Down under, Malcolm Turnbull has been elected for his second term as Prime Minister by a very narrow margin. Historically, the appointment of a Prime Minister would have a positive effect on the country’s currency,  on this occasion however this was overshadowed by the UK British PM’s appointment.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have mentioned the possibility of a rate cut. It does look as tough the RBA has stalled recently, which could be due to a firm government not being in place. With the appointment of Turnbull this no longer the case. Australia rely heavily on raw material export to the Chinese, with the high price of the Aussie their exports are becoming less appealing. A cut will devalue the Aussie and keep the Chinese happy. I think there is a chance of a cut in coming months and if this does take place expect AUD weakness.

If you are an Australian Dollar seller you are currently in an excellent position. We have not seen these levels since November 2013. The  UK interest rate decision is due tommorow and if there is a drop in rates it will create an incredible selling opportunity.

If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a seasoned broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

Buying Australian Dollar rates set to continue falling post-Brexit (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar rates, GBP/AUD, have been seen with a brief period of stability last week, halting the continued fall which threatened the 1.60’s. We seem to be in a ‘limbo’ on the value of the Pound following the Brexit vote.

Without a firm timeline on when the UK are set to enact Article 50 (the official beginning of the exit process), the Pound is likely to struggle on financial markets. Even fantastic industrial production figures for the UK (the best in 6 years) had almost no net impact on the Pound’s value last week.

Anyone planning a transfer into Australian Dollars over the next few months and wish to try to time their transfer to make the most of the current market, would do well to put them in the shoes of an investor.

There is quite a lot at stake in the current leadership battle to be the next Prime Minister between Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom. One seems primed to begin the leave process straight away, whilst May is saying it would be prudent to wait at least a year.

With such a large and unknowable factor between now and September, why invest in the Pound now? Is it not better to wait until after the vote itself?

As such, without much demand for the Pound if the above consensus in the market continues to play out, rates to buy Australian Dollars will likely remain stagnant or fall, rather than recover.

This is particularly true in the short-term, given that the Bank of England seem likely to cut interest rates on Thursday and the current political uncertainty in Australia is moving in a positive direction.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Australian Dollar requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Dollar return.

The current volatility in the exchange markets still has an average difference between the high and the low of the day on GBP/AUD of over two cents, so even a well timed transfer ahead of Thursday BOE interest rate decision could save you thousands.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere and Australian Dollar sellers can also reach out to discuss the options open to them to catch the market at any tempting peaks which emerge in the timeframe you have to complete your transfer.

GBP Remains Under Pressure (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates recovered slightly during today’s trading but the general trend has been in line with other currency pairs. Sterling is struggling against a wave of negative feeling and with the markets still trying to come to terms with the UK’s recent decision to leave the EU, I do not anticipate a shift in market perception under current conditions. The Pound has suffered due to a lack of investor confidence and as the table above shows, we have seen Sterling lose a considerable amount of value over the past month.

With GBP/AUD rates now sitting close to a two-and-a-half-year low, those clients holding AUD have a perfect opportunity to secure any short-term positons. With the Australian economy still showing signs of fragility and concern over the current growth forecasts and rising unemployment in China, we may find that these levels do not last for long. I still feel that longer-term Sterling is likely to find support and based on recent history the AUD has a lot of downside risk, another reason it may be prudent to protect any AUD positions rather than gamble on another major spike.

We also need to consider the political situation in Australia, which is also remains very uncertain. Whilst it looks like there will be a hung parliament, votes from around the country are still being counted and any uncertainty surrounding who will be in power and what future policies they may implement could have a detrimental effect on the AUD’s value.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying Australian Dollar rates begin the day positively (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD has had a slight improvement this morning, but for those buying Australian Dollars, this should be seen as a gift rather than a the beginning of a new trend.

GBP/AUD has always been the most volatile of Sterling’s pairings, with average differences between the high and the low each day measured in whole Cents rather than fractions. The resurgence this morning is characteristic of the fact that even in a falling marking, daily opportunities can present themselves.

Much of the current weakness on buying Australian Dollar rates understandably is coming from the Pound side of the pairing, with the UK deteriorating rapidly in the face of a Brexit. The uncertainty seems set to continue with a prolonged process of naming a new Prime Minister – scheduled for September this year.

A few people reading my posts recently have questioned why the current election seems to have no bearing on Australian Dollar value. To summarize, not only is the UK’s current uncertainty far greater than that of Australia, but because the UK economy is much more dependent on financial services, the current limbo is having an exaggerated effect.

Over the next week, without much political news expected, the two interest rate decisions for both the Australian and UK economies will be the focus for markets. Australia can expect no change after only recently cutting rates, whilst the Governor of the Bank of England – Mark Carney – has been making heavy hints that this will be necessary next Thursday.

An interest rate cut will coincide well with his policy statement on Tuesday to allow banks to lend more to keep the economy functioning and growth protected. As an emergency financial measure, however, this will translate into Pound weakness.

Should the cut take place, with UK interest rates falling further to 0.25%, the disparity between that and Australia’s of 1.75%, will be even more stark. Demand for the Australian Dollar will far outstrip the Pound, and I expect central levels to hit the 1.60’s once more, back to where they were in 2013.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can actually be fixed in place to avoid the likely falls expected between now and the short and medium term – essentially allowing you to pre-book your currency and limit your exposure if you have an upcoming AUD purchase planned.

Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact to get everything in place to seize any peaks which may emerge in the time between now and making your transfer. A premium in this market will simply be put on being able to move quickly should any opportunities emerge.