Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Will GBP/AUD Rates Continue to Fall? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have recovered slightly during Tuesday’s trading, with the pair heading back above 1.80 by close of European trading. It’s been an extremely unsettling few days for many of our clients and I’m sure investors alike, with a huge decrease in Sterling’s value following last week’s disastrous Brexit result. Regardless of personal opinion it is clear the decision to leave the EU has caused huge problems for the UK economy and the Pound is suffering as a result.

The initial market reaction was one of shock and surprise and the Pound lost ground immediately. The swing we’ve seen on GBP/AUD over the past couple of weeks is in the region of 20 cents and this is of huge significance to clients who are looking to buy or sell large AUD positions. Sterling’s negative move can be attributed to the Brexit but it was also facilitated by an upturn in the Australian and maybe even more importantly the Chinese economy.

Looking ahead and I do not expect the current trend to continue at the same pace but with so much pressure on the UK economy and the uncertainty surrounding the current political situation, any sustainable improvement for the Pound is unlikely under current market conditions. I would be looking to protect myself against a further downturn and not gamble on what has become the most unusual and unpredictable market I personally have ever witnessed.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Brexit collapses Australian Dollar buying rates (Joshua Privett)

Friday saw some of the largest single-day falls on record for buying Australian Dollar rates, with GBP/AUD having fallen from close to 2.0 Thursday evening, to below 1.8 by 4am Friday morning in the UK when initial results were being released.

Throughout the day the Pound was moving around with unprecedented volatility. But there were periods of stablisation, which allowed the Pound to regain four cents against the Australian Dollar by close of play on Friday.

Unfortunately for Dollar buyers, rates took the double hit of severe Pound weakness but also a strong surge in Australian Dollar strength. Currencies like AUD fare well in times of uncertainty, as the higher interest on the currency is attractive to investors when more stable gains in safe-haven currencies such as the Pound are lost.

The story still has a lot to unfold, but for the moment, the main news seems to have been released already. Cameron will resign come October, and the public have voted to Leave the European Union, beginning what seems to be a two-year process.

Scottish MP’s are talking loudly about their own Referendum again, and even Northern Ireland have begun murmering similar sentiments. Finally, businesses are already stating that any loss of access to the single market will be met with job losses to Frankfurt, Dublin, or Paris. But all of these are further down the line than currency buyers can plan for at the moment.

Moving forward most movement will be governed by speculative trading off the back of the Brexit result.

The average difference between the high and the low each day for Australian Dollar this year has been around 2-3 cents. This will likely be increased next week.

Therefore opportunities for buying and selling Australian Dollars from this point will present themselves on a daily basis. A premium will simply be put on being able to move quickly, as Friday proved these improvements for either side will be eaten into quickly as speculators seek profit in a volatile marketplace.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me whilst markets are closed over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I offer a tailored service to anyone wishing to exchange currency in this current arena filled with atypical levels of volatility and alert my customers immediately to any opportunities which emerge.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can actually be fixed in place for anyone planning a currency purchase in the future, allowing you to avoid the uncertainty over the next few weeks and their effect on the value of your capital.

 

GBP/AUD Rates Retract Ahead of EU Referendum Results (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have been extremely volatile of late, with the pair shifting almost 20 cents over the past month. This extreme market movement has come in line with increased momentum surrounding the UK EU referendum, which is currently being fought out in poll stations around the country. Whilst the pro’s & cons have been debated for weeks, many of us will be making an emotional decision when we enter the polling booth today. Personally, I feel that an In vote is the lesser of two evils and whilst I’m not a huge fan of many facets of the EU, I do believe that the current economic and political climate lead me towards feeling more secure being part of a wider community.

In terms of the effect the referendum has had on the currency market, the Pound has seen huge swings over the past few weeks, as investors tried to second guess which way the vote would go and factor this in to GBP exchange rates. This week’s increase for the Pound indicates that an In vote is now the more likely outcome but with so many peaks and troughs of late, a further twist to the saga is highly plausible. The AUD has found some support today and it may well be that the markets had factored in a Remain vote and we are now seeing a retraction in the rates.

The markets clearly view a Remain vote as the best outcome, so expect the Pound to solidify its position should this occur. I have no doubt that we will see heavy GBP losses should the out vote gain enough support to gain victory. I do not like to gamble when it comes to large sums of money and therefore I would be looking to protect any Sterling positions ahead of tomorrow’s results.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Polling day is here – GBP/AUD set for greater volatility than normal due to the Referendum (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD is already all over the place this morning, recording some of the largest movements on Sterling’s currency pairings. And, noticeably, this movement is currently negative.

There will be a number of factors affecting the value of the Pound today, all based around expectations surrounding the Referendum. Will confidence in the UK financial markets fall? Will the current downpours favour the more steadfast leave voters? Will indications from privately conducted exit polls suggest favour for one camp or the other?

Entering into the day polls were at a dead-heat. After the May election polls haven’t had the same level of trust as they have in the past, so even if there was a strong favouring for one camp over the other, markets may not necessarily price this into the Pound.

The downside risk for a Leave vote far outweighs the gains if we decide to stay for anyone considering buying foreign currency. HSBC and Goldman Sachs predict a 20% fall in the value of the Pound should a leave vote win out, meaning that soon we could be closer to 1.6 than 2.0 on GBP/AUD. Should we stay I fully expect a rise on Pound value, but certainly not to the same degree, a confirmation of the status quo cannot equate to radical change.

It is a flip of the coin at this point, moving forward it entirely depends on the risk appetite of the individual entering the marketplace.

The sensible option for anyone considering buying Australian Dollars over the next few months would be to get a rate secured. Rates are still 16 cents higher than their lowest levels in April when the Leave Camp had their greatest lead.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 00 44 1494 725 353 and simply ask my reception team to be put through to Joshua to receive a quote on your transfer and to discuss the options open to you limit your exposure over the near unprecedented volatility expected today.

Or feel free to email me with a short description of your requirement and the best number to reach you on in order to discuss your requirement in more detail. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

AUD Benefits From Brexit Uncertainty (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have been on the slide for the past month and despite it not being all one way traffic, the Pound is certainly feeling the strain ahead of next week’s EU referendum vote. We did see a slight recovery yesterday following better than expected unemployment data but I do expect this positive trend to continue, so any clients holding Sterling may want to consider their options and protect themselves ahead of such a key political & economic decision.

UK unemployment data came in at 5% but despite this improvement investors remain extremely cautious regarding the UK economy at present and this is being reflected in the value of GBP. With the latest referendum polls indicating that the Leave camp are now neck and neck with the Remain camp and one even had them ahead, it is likely this uncertainty will continue to build over the coming days. Whilst pre-polls are often fabricated and should be largely ignored, the term no smoke without fire comes to mind. There certainly seems to be a level of support growing and whether this is enough to force an Out vote only time will tell.

Whilst all discussions seem to be centred around the referendum, we do still have some key economic data releases to watch out for over the coming days. Today’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement that is likely to hold most weight, as any indication of how a Brexit may affect future policies could cause an aggressive market reaction. We also have a host of employment data for Australia overnight and if we see anything outside of the expected reading of 5.7%, then expect increased volatility on AUD exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling weakens further after a volatile start to the week, downtrend likely to continue in the short term (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has weakened once again versus the Australian Dollar, with the trading levels available to Aussie Dollar sellers becoming more attractive on a daily basis at the moment.

With regards to Sterling exchange rates today’s trading session has been particularly volatile, with the choppy trading conditions making it difficult to time transactions. This is where getting in contact with a specialist foreign exchange broker such as ourselves can help so feel free to get in touch.

The boost to the Aussie’s value has mostly been down to Sterling weakness as the Aussie Dollar hasn’t gained across the board, it’s just that the Pound is under increasing pressure at present and this has been reflected in the GBP/AUD exchange rate with the pair down almost half a percent at the time of writing, yet at one stage the pair were as low as 1.9064.

I expect this 1.90 level to be tested between now and the UK’s upcoming EU Referendum on the 23rd of this month, as I expect it to act as a psychological support level. Should it be breached I would be surprised to see GBP/AUD continue it’s decline into the mid 1.80’s due to potential ‘Brexit’ uncertainty, and then should the UK actually vote to leave, I think we’ll see a new annual low.

That being said I think anyone with an interest in the value of the Aussie Dollar should be aware of what ANZ bank had to say over the weekend. Analysts at ANZ believe the rate of economic growth will be half a percent lower than what’s generally expected, with their growth forecast at 2.5% as opposed to the expected 3%.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make between GBP and AUD feel free to get in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

Buying Australian Dollar rates under Referendum stress once more (Joshua Privett)

Australian Dollar buying rates have fallen back into the lower 1.90’s with news on Friday being released of a major poll from The Independant showing a suddenly commanding lead for the Leave camp at a critical point before the vote next week.

This poll suggested 55% support for a Brexit, and 45% in favour of the remain vote, this also includes a weighting based on expected voter turnout.

Whilst these numbers are not definitive, we are seeing a shift in momentum towards the leave camp, with an average of all major polls over the last week showing a dead heat at 50:50 for both sides. The week before, Remain had it at 52:48.

Currency markets rarely enjoy a change to the status quo, we only need to look back to the Scottish Referendum to see an example of this.

Anytime the Remain camp shows gains the Pound flourishes, whilst any examples of increased public support for a Brexit sees Australian Dollar buying rates becoming a dearer prospect. Since this shift for the Leave camp at the beginning of last week, GBP/AUD rates have already lost 10 cents, and the vote is still 9 trading days away.

With GBP/AUD rates of exchange deteriorating in this gradual fashion this represents a steady stream of capital out of the Pound and into safe-haven currencies – which can be seen in the rise in value for the Dollar and Swiss-Franc. Unless the Remain camp gains a commanding lead, further depreciation for the Pound can be expected, and dearer buying rates for the Australian Dollar, as well as other major currencies, can be expected.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement over the next few weeks or months should explore your option in how to manage your risk over what could be an unprecendented event in the market place, particularly if the UK does decide to leave the EU.

Email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss these options, and to hear a live quote on your transfer if you decided to alleviate your risk entirely. You can either pre-book your currency at an agreed rate of exchange for a future purchase, or can simply buy your Australian Dollars immediately and have them sent to your destination account.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Australian Dollar sellers should also get in contact ahead of the vote to have a plan-of-action in place to seize any peaks which are expected ahead of the vote.

GBP/AUD Rates Drop Ahead of Brexit Vote (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have slipped rather alarmingly over the past couple of weeks, with the pair now floating around 1.95 on the exchange. This move was instigated by better than expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, along with increased uncertainty surrounding a UK Brexit ahead the upcoming referendum on June 23rd. This has dragged the Pound’s value down and it is for this reason we have seen the slippage, not any overriding confidence in the Australian economy, which is also finding life tough going.

Whatever the result of the referendum the markets will have to factor in future policies and possible pitfalls and with so much uncertainty attached to the UK leaving the EU, this result is likely to cause extreme volatility and panic for investors. Whilst Sterling would likely take an immediate hit, the knock on effect should also be considered. The markets would have to re-evaluate their entire blueprint, and start to consider a scenario they will not ever really have considered or planned for. The current set up is far from perfect but investors are viewing it as better the devil you know and I have no doubt the Pound will struggle to gain any sustainable support for many months to come.

Looking outside of the referendum and we still have economic data which needs to be considered. It was interesting to note that the Pound gained little support this week, despite better than expected Manufacturing & Production figures. We also had the latest NIESR UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, which predicted a slight improvement on previous of 0.5% growth. Despite these showing g a more positive outlook for the UK, they did little to boost the Pound, which continues to find life tough going ahead of the most important vote this countries seen for 50 years on June 23rd.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD breaking through into the lower 1.90’s (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar rates are still seeing gradual declines down into the lower 1.90’s, with GBP/AUD still probing to be the most volatile of Sterling’s major currency pairings.

Little news, economic or otherwise, can outshine the current spotlight on the upcoming Referendum vote. Incredibly positive manufacturing news for the UK economy wasn’t even enough to cause a stir on buying rates longer than 6 hours yesterday, with European markets having woken up to 1.93 on GBP/AUD once more – a 9 cent loss in the space of a few weeks.

Close polling in the Australian election isn’t even having the traditional dampening effect on AUD value since the upcoming vote in the UK has far greater ramifications.

The likelihood is that this pressure on Sterling will be continuing until the vote itself, after which, it is completely up in the air on where the public vote will sway.

In three potential scenarios leading up to the vote – two of them will lead to Sterling weakness. These two are if polls stay close, or if the leave camp edge ahead in the polls. Both of which will see capital leave the UK with financial institutions, companies, and individual investors unwilling to gamble on the value of their capital dropping sharply in the event of an ‘out’ vote.

The alternative, is a boost for the Remain camp which will see the Pound gain value as it had since mid-April until fairly recently with polls edging much closer and the Leave camp edging ahead in some. It is difficult to say whether this will happen or not, the number of undecideds in this election is unprecedented this close to the vote itself.

However, with 2 out of the 3 potential outcomes on the polls pointing to Pound weakness, it’s fair to say that this is still more risk than opportunity in the markets for Australian Dollar buyers.

Anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement over the next few weeks, or even months, does not have to wait for drama preceding the vote and its outcome before addressing their currency exchange. A popular option, made more popular in recent weeks, is known as a forward contract. This essentially allows you to pre-book your currency at an agreed rate of exchange that day for a small deposit ahead of a future purchase up to 18 months down the line.

I strongly recommend that anyone interested in avoiding risk on their transfer should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss how to implement the above option, or to simply conduct your full transfer ahead of time to avoid the expected downside over the next few weeks.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief conversation concerning your transfer could save you thousands.

AUD sellers can also get in contact, and I will explain how best to ride the expected  movements in your favour to their completion in the run-up to the Referendum. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

AUD gathers strength against Sterling (Daniel Charles Johnson)

The Aussie has gained significant strength over the the pound for two reasons. 1. A host of positive data and 2. EU referendum polls. We have seen better than expected data on building approvals and car sales, but more predominately GDP and unemployment coming in at record levels.

The ICM/Guardian polls were released on Tuesday and they showed a swing in favor of the leave camp. Due to this Sterling dropped against all major currency pairings.  The EU referendum will be the most significant factor in any trade involving the pound. Judging when to move is key to maximising your return. If you are performing a transfer short term or long term it is vital you speak to a broker in order to prepare a strategy to prepare for possible EU referendum outcomes. There are contract options available which could prove very beneficial in present market conditions.

On Tuesday next week  at 05.30 we will see the RBA’s interest rate decision. I would be surprised to see any change considering there was a  rate cut so recently form 2% to 1.75%. Despite the Aussie performing very well across the board. The RBA may drop rates later in the year in order to make their raw materials more appealing to the Chinese thus weakening the Aussie.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I am prepared to beat any competitors rate of exchange and also help time your trade to give you the best possible return. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Why not check out our company’s credentials at the following links www.currencies.co.uk and ww2.feefo.com/en-gb/reviews/foreign-currency-direct-plc#?timeFrame=ALL&sort=newest. Thank you for reading my blog.