Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Factors impacting GBPAUD exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent months the Australian dollar has been losing ground against sterling for a few reasons. Firstly Iron ore prices, Australia’s largest export an a commodity that Australia heavily rely on has been falling in value. Last week Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports rose 1.7% to a record 134.25 million tons as of Friday, according to weekly data from Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co. With reports suggestions China are having a slow down these stock piles continue to rise which in turn would have a negative impact on iron ore prices. Secondly the UK Prime Minister called for a snap election which also provided strength for the pound as a Conservative majority is likely which in turn would give the PM more power when negotiating Brexit.

However recent poor UK economic data has stopped the pound for making any further gains against the Australian dollar. The Bank of England have announced inflation is outpacing wage growth which is real problem for the UK public, however the Bank of England are not in the position to raise interest rates which would combat the inflation pressures.

Looking ahead I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Australian dollar continue to devalue as the FED are likely to raise interest rates in the upcoming months which would lead to a sell off of Australian dollars to buy US dollars and the also the problem with Iron ore is not going away. As for the UK as soon as the General Election is over Brexit negations will be in full swing.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research have exclaimed Brexit negotiations could cause major swings for sterling exchange rates.  They told their clients they believe sterling’s good run is coming to an end. Personally I think it is impossible to predict how Brexit negotiations will unravel therefore gambling on this could go either way.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade Australian dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 0044 1494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates see slight dip to end the week (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates have dipped away from their recent 7 month highs thanks to some lacklustre economic and wage growth forecasts for the UK economy.

The Bank of England downgraded UK growth forecasts down to 1.9% for the year, below the magic 2% mark, and made concerning noises about future interest rate rises being delayed.

The UK defying market expectations from the shock of the Brexit is one feature that has been propping up the Pound’s value. Whenever the dent is put in this picture the Pound is likely to suffer.

Unfortunately this has been coupled with a stronger Australian Dollar. A byproduct of a weakening US Dollar in the face of Donald Trump’s latest scandal which we do not need to go into detail on.

For now, the key point for anyone with an Australian Dollar interest is that, given there is little expected news this week, this dominant narrative of a dented Pound and an Australian Dollar benefitting from lost investor interest in the US Dollar should continue.

Later on this month, based on trends from the 2015 election, the upcoming 2017 election will begin to change the market trend.

Anyone who has the time to wait for UK election polling to begin to influence Sterling’s value as we get within throwing distance of polling day, should contact me to discuss a strategy on how to approach the vote to secure any targetted peaks and ensure you are better protected from any downside risk.

Otherwise, I strongly recommend contacting me on Monday if your time period means you need to secure an exchange rate before May 20th.

I have never had an issue securing more commercial exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere due to the multiple counterparties I buy through. Contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk while markets are closed for a short discussion concerning your personal situation.

Will GBPAUD rates hit 1.80? Best rates in 8 months to buy Aussie dollars with pounds!

The overall impression for GBPAUD rates is now much more positive with sterling rising and the Australian dollar on the back foot following a series of releases which have unsettled investors attitudes to the Aussie. The general impression for the markets is that GBPAUD rates could now rise higher as the trends that have contributed to the rise from 1.59 to 1.76 continue further. I would not be ruling out rates of 1.80 in the coming weeks, it appears clients looking to sell AUD for sterling should be making plans around what could be a very volatile and choppy period.

Let us look at the situation from the perspective of clients buying Australian dollars, the rates are very good. We are at the very best rates we have seen since September of last year. The pound has been on the very weak side at the risk of falling further owing to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit. On a £200,000 transfer between the highs and lows you are today looking at an extra 33,000 AUD compared to the lower points. With the market appearing to favour if not further sterling strength then a much stronger and supported pound the general impression is that clients selling AUD to buy pounds will suffer.

Sterling could struggle in the run-up to the UK election but will for sure strengthen once Theresa May is confirmed Prime Minister. The overall viewpoint stemming from the previous elections is the pound weakens before and rise after. However this time it is a little different since the result is largely expected and will therefore be priced in to the value of sterling.

All in all I would be very concerned if I was selling Aussie dollars to buy pounds as it looks like the market has now shifted and to claw back and see rates that were on offer not so long ago come back we will need to see a big change in sentiment and the market forecasts. If you have a transfer to make then this week is vital as we have the latest news from the Bank of England which is likely to create some volatility on the market.

If you are considering any transfer involving buying or selling the pound and Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is sensible to avoid any potential surprises in the market. For more information and assistance in achieving the best rates in the market please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/AUD hits 7 month high! (Daniel Johnson)

Will the Pound continue to strengthen?

Sterling has strengthened significantly against the Australian Dollar of late. GBP/AUD now has hit 1.74, the highest levels in the last seven months. This is due to impressive UK PMI (Purchase Managers Index) figures and UK construction data.

Despite positive data from down under from the service and tourist sector, there  are worrying signs of an overpriced property market. It is a similar situation to London with properties in high wage areas becoming far too overpriced, specifically Melbourne and Sydney. The problem is being exasperated by foreign investors willing to pay the excessive prices. During the early hours we will see the release of Australian housing sector figures and this could well influence GBP/AUD levels. New House sales being the key data release.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also kept rates on hold at 1.5% for the ninth month in a row.

Australia are heavily dependent on the Chinese purchasing their raw materials and we have sen a decline in Australian trade balance date which has caused the Aussie to dip in value. Chinese growth although positive is slowing.

Domestic Factors that will influence GBP/AUD

A snap election would usually weaken the currency in question, but on this occasion we have see it strengthen. It was a shrewd move by Theresa May to call an election when the competition is so weak. Sun Tzu would be impressed. With the Conservatives clear favourites to win the election it has seen investor confidence grow as a conservative government is seen as a positive for the UK economy. The pound has rallied as a result. I would not expect a surge in strength if they are elected however as the market moves on rumour as well as fact and I think a conservative victory has already been factored into current GBP/AUD levels.

If you have a currency exchange to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me personally as I will be more than happy to assist you both in trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to make your transfer. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference, so it is well worth taking a couple of minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate hits a new 2017 high as inflation data disappoints, will the trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has hit a new high against the Aussie Dollar today, as the pair have hit 1.7220 at one stage during today’s trading session.

The upward movement for the Pound begun early mostly due to Aussie Dollar weakness, as in the early hours of this morning the Australian inflation data came out worse than expected on both an annual and monthly basis albeit not drastically.

At the same time Sterling has performed well across the board during today’s trading session and at the time of writing the currency is up against all major currency pairs.

There has been talk of the Australian economy slowing in recent months, and with the US Fed Reserve now likely to continue to raise interest rates throughout the year I think the Aussie may end up trading quite considerably lower against the Pound as the year progresses. An increasing interest rate in the US could be bad news for the Australian Dollar as its likely that investors would rather hold their funds in the US due to the higher level of security it offers.

Limited demand for the Aussie Dollar is the reason I think we could see the GBP to AUD rate improve as the year goes on, but I do think that if the conservatives in the UK don’t win the election in June we could see another sell-off for the Pound.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

For how long will the GBPAUD rate remain above 1.70?

The pound to Australian dollar rate has risen above 1.70 which is presenting an excellent short term opportunity for clients with an Australian dollar buying requirement in the future. Sterling is potentially about to hit a brick wall with the UK elections but more worrying might be the likelihood of an interest rate cut in Australia. Next week is the RBA Interest Rate decision which could see a much weaker Aussie dollar so if you have Aussies to sell next week might be something to avoid!

I am expecting a very busy period in the next two weeks on GBPAUD exchange rates as investors get close to understanding just what the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) plan in the future for their interest rates. Whilst unlikely they will actually make a cut there is a real chance the RBA will be looking to see a weaker Australian dollar and if there remain concerns over the economy, particularly jobs, the RBA will want to cut sooner than later.

Overall levels to buy Australian dollars are now much higher than many believed a few weeks ago. The shock announcement of the snap UK General Election has seen the pound rise but this is unlikely to last too long. Typically a General Election leads to market uncertainty which can see a currency weaker. I have worked in this industry for almost ten years and this will be the third General Election I have seen. The last two both saw a weaker pound in the run-up to the vote which might be an opportunity for clients selling Australian dollars to buy the pound.

If you have a transaction in the coming weeks and months then making some plans sooner rather than later is the best way to navigate the uncertainty and volatility we are likely to experience. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch to get an overview of the market and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about the market and all of your options.

Pound to Australian Dollar rates dip heading into the first weekend of campaigning (Joshua Privett)

Politics is still the name of the game in governing Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates, with the first weekend of campaigning in the UK General Election making a few investers nervous as we enter into the weekend.

So why the dip?

This is the first weekend of heavy campaigning following the announcement last Tuesday from Theresa May, calling for a snap-election in the UK, which saw Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates rise to multi-month highs over the course of 36 hours of trading.

However, this weekend’s campagining has made a few investors nervous, which is why Sterling fell away slightly from the recent highs very late on Friday afternoon.

This is the first weekend where each major party will be alluding to what will be key features released in their manifestos, so there is a strong potential for a shift in the polls. Labour have already come out swinging with Jeremy Corbyn stating that Labour will add 4 more bank holidays per year to the calendar if elected.

With so much unknown the Pound weakened, however, should the polls show few surprises on Monday, Australian Dollar buyers can be fairly confident of a recovery as we progress further into the week.

With no news coming out to affect the Australian Dollar until Wednesday with a measure of Australia’s inflation to be released, this will likely be the governing narrative until then.

In such a politically fluid landscape, a premium is put on being a well-informed purchaser, and being able to move quickly to avoid being ‘last to the party’ should any opportunities emerge, or to avoid being ‘caught out’ should rates deteriorate whilst you are busy at work during the day.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on  jjp@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Where next for GBP/AUD? (Daniel Johnson)

Snap Election causes Sterling rally

Theresa May announced on Tuesday she would be calling a general election 8th June. Historically, a snap general election would cause the currency in question to weaken, but on this occasion the opposite has occurred. The conservatives are currently significantly ahead in the polls and are solid favourites to win the election. It was a shrewd move by the Prime minister , almost guaranteeing another term in office by timing the election when the competition is so weak.

A conservative government is considered to be positive to the UK economy and investors gained confidence following the announcement and the pound has strengthened considerably over the Australian dollar as a result.

Trade Negotiations a key factor in Sterling value

Following the triggering of article 50 the progression of trade negotiation will be crucial to the value of the pound. Theresa May has already stated the two year target could be unrealistic. A fact that Sir Ivan Rogers, the Head ambassador to the EU pointed out upon his resignation. Sir Ivan thinks it could take up to ten years. The quickest US trade deal took four years so indeed  two years was very optimistic.

Australian Property Bubble and Heavy Reliance on China

Chinese data has not been too strong of late and this could impact the Australian Dollar due to Australia’s heavy reliance on export to the Chinese. Keep a close eye Chinese data releases if you have an Aussie dollar trade pending. The property price problem echoes that of London at the moment with inflated prices around the major cities. This could cause problems for the Australian economy if the property prices outweigh an increase in the average wage. If tensions continue between the North Koreans and the Chinese this could also have a knock on effect to the Australian economy.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Testimonials – Daniel Johnson

 

Daniel Feller

Daniel Feller and his family live in Melbourne, Australia, having made the move there from the UK some years ago. Following their decision to make extensive renovations to their Australian property Daniel needed to send money from his bank account in the UK to Australia.

Why Daniel exchanged foreign currency

Daniel and his family needed to transfer Pounds to Australian Dollars and send the money from the UK to Australia to fund their house renovations. Having been recommended to use Foreign Currency Direct by a friend in Melbourne who had used the service before, Daniel got in contact. Daniel was quickly speaking with his dedicated currency broker and discussing his requirements and situation in order to help maximise his Australian Dollar return. Daniel commented, ‘My dedicated broker, Daniel Johnson explained the process really clearly, and it all sounded straightforward. I had been recommended by a friend so I knew they were trustworthy’.

With a significant amount of Australian Dollars required, some complex transactions and the timing important, Daniel was looking to get the best exchange rate at the time. ‘The service was very efficient, a quick discussion and I needed to fill in some online forms. The security process was simple and reassuring and I was very happy with the exchange rate I received’.

What Daniel had to say about the service

Following the introduction by a friend, Daniel used Foreign Currency Direct to convert his Pounds to Australian Dollars. After the transaction Daniel said, ‘It was quick and easy. Dealing with the same person throughout the process was helpful as they knew everything about my situation. I was also very impressed by the speed of the transfer to Australia!’

Will the Pound hold onto its recent gains and remain above 1.70 versus the Australian Dollar? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has lost quite a lot of value against the pound recently, making converting Pounds into Aussie Dollars a much more attractive proposition.

All major currencies have lost value against the Pound in recent weeks as the clarity of the Brexit plan and the snap election called by Theresa May (UK Prime Minister) have offered the UK economy some much needed certainty which has resulted in a boost the Pounds value.

Sterling is currently trading at 2017 highs against most major currency pairs, and those planning on making a Pound to Aussie transfer may wish to consider that the Aussie Dollar has been losing value against the US Dollar as well as against Sterling, which suggests to me that the currency is coming under pressure generally speaking.

It’s for this reason I’m expecting to see the Pound to Aussie exchange rate continue to climb and consolidate above 1.70, but Sterling sellers must be aware that the currency could be vulnerable should it become public that trade negotiations are going badly.

Economic data out of the UK is also becoming increasingly more important, as the currency has been driven mostly by political unfoldings for the past year whereas investors are now keen to keep a close eye out on how the UK economy is performing during these sensitive times. If you would like to be kept updated regarding these events do feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPAUD hits 1.70! What next?

The pound to Australian rate has hit the 1.70 mark as investors embrace Theresa May’s plans to call a snap General election. Expectations for the pound are now very much positive as investors find answers to some of the questions of uncertainty which have been plaguing the pound in the last few weeks and months. This is not just a story about the pound, of course, the Australian dollar has fallen back as the RBA indicate what many of us suspected some time ago, further interest rate cuts down the line are a real possibility.

GBPAUD could now move much higher as some of the previous reasons to hold on to Australian dollars evaporate. Expectations for the Australian dollar to move higher have been largely hampered in recent weeks as a mixed bag of economic data and a stronger pound makes life difficult for Australian dollar sellers. If you have Australian dollars to sell and are hoping for big improvements you might need to remind yourself of just how much the market has improved for you since the Referendum! With over 40 cents between the high and the low Australian dollar sellers are now at some of the best rates they have had since 2013!

GBPAUD could now well rise further, particularly since the likelihood is Theresa May will win the election with a very large majority. The overall expectation for the rates is that we could now easily test 1.80 in the next 4 weeks. If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital to the understanding of where rates might head.

We could now be about to break into some very much fresh ranges and any clients with an expectation to buy or sell the Australian dollar should be doing what they can to plan in advance for future volatility. If you have a transfer to make and wish to get an overview of the market and receive some updates and news on what might be happening please feel free to get in touch directly with me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.