Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Are GBP/AUD Rates Heading Back Towards 2 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dropped off over the past week, with the pair dipping below 1.90 at the low. With UK economic data not as strong recently, it is not surprising to see the AUD realign itself slightly. UK Factory orders have fallen to a 2 year low, proof that our exports are being hurt the Pound’s rising value and despite better than expected Retail Sales figures released this morning, the Pound seems to have lost its recent momentum.

Despite this dip for the Pound I do not expect this trend to continue in the long-term. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seem as committed as ever to lowering the AUD’s value, in order to help boost their exports and with mixed data coming out of China recently (Australia’s largest trading partner), the AUD could struggle to make any sustained inroads against GBP under 1.90.

With little data of note out for either the UK or Australia for the rest of the trading week, I do not anticipate any major moves from the current levels. I do feel it is more likely we will see Sterling creep back up, than see the AUD start to move towards 1.85.

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GBP/AUD Rates Dip Towards 1.92! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dropped again during Wednesday’s trading, following the release of the latest UK unemployment figures and BoE minutes. UK unemployment figures came out worse than expected and caused the Pound’s value to drop once again.

Sterling had seen it’s potion slide against the AUD since the start of the trading week and with the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bulletin being released overnight and then RBA governor Glenn Stevens speech overnight on Thursday, it is likely we will see further market volatility before the trading week is out.

GBP/AUD rates have dipped towards 1.92 and if this momentum continues it is likely pressure could be put on the 1.90 resistance level before long. However, due to the volatile nature of the currency pair, it is not unusual to see aggressive swings in a very short space of time and this is also not the first time the AUD has threatened to realign itself over recent weeks. Personally I feel there is still more chance we will see the pair move back toward 2, than trade under 1.90 for any sustained period.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Rates Drop Following RBA Minutes (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dropped during Tuesday morning’s trading, with the pair now floating around 1.93 on the exchange. We have seen Sterling drop against most of the major currency pairs this morning and with Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney concerned over the current inflation levels in the UK, we may see Sterling lose some of its recent momentum over the coming days.

We also had the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes released overnight, which indicated the central bank would cut rates further if necessary, despite concerns over house price inflation. This comes after the RBA kept interest rates on hold during their last vote, despite calls for another rate cut.

There’s a host of key economic data out for both the UK & Australia this week, starting with the latest UK unemployment figures and BoE minutes. Unemployment levels are expected to improve but if they come out worse than expected expect the Pound to lose further value. The BoE minutes are always considered a key market mover as they give us an insight into the central banks policies and may provide an indication of when the central bank will look to raise interest rates.

We also have the latest RBA bulletin overnight on Thursday but it is likely to be RBA governor Glenn Stevens speech on Friday, which will dominate headlines as we head into the weekend. He has been fairly downbeat of late do it will interesting to see if he continues to talk down the Australian economy, with the RBA committed to lowering the AUD’s value over recent months.

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GBPAUD falls after RBA Minutes

GBPAUD has fallen following some better than expected Australian employment data, employment rose to 15.6k in February and this has helped the AUD to rise against sterling. Whilst longer term the rates are predicted to fall again – their interest rate that is – GBPAUD is likely to suffer in the short term due to the UK General Election.

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Are GBP/AUD Rates Heading Above 2? (Matthew Vassallo)

We’ve witnessed a lot of volatility on GBP/AUD rates of late and this trend looks set to continue in the short-term. The AUD had started to strengthen and for a time it looked as if the pair were heading back under 1.95. However, the Pound found further support early this week and the trend is once again heading back towards 2 on the exchange.

I do feel we will need to see another shift in market sentiment in order to breach this level but the Pound is gaining support across the board and it will be interesting to note over the coming days and weeks, whether the Australian economic data is strong enough to support the AUD under this level.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are reluctant to cut their base rate further at this time, as the fear that artificially trying to drive up house prices could prove detrimental to their economic recovery and therefore it is likely interest rates will be kept on hold for the time being. It is more likely that the recent strong growth forecasts for China will help to support the AUD, due to Australia’s heavy trade links and considering we are still trading very close to a six year high on the pair, I would be tempted to consider my potion around the current levels if I had an upcoming AUD purchase.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

RBA Keep Interest Rates at 2.25% (Matthew Vassallo)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets earlier this week by keeping their base interest on hold at 2.25%. It was widely anticipated that the central bank would cut base rates to 2% but this move did not occur. Reports today have indicated the reason for this is concerns over house price growth, particularly in Sydney and that the last thing the RBA want is to cite monetary stimulus, which ultimately drives up house prices.

This week has also seen the release of the latest Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, with economic growth slowing to 2.5%. Although this figure was expected, it has reinforced a negative feeling that currently surrounds the resource-rich economy.  With growth rates at this level, unemployment levels are unlikely to improve and with the RBA seemingly content to see the AUD lose further market value, the current woes for the AUD may not be over.

With further data out for Australia overnight in form of their latest Retail Sales figures, we could see further volatility on GBP/AUD rates before the weekend. The AUD did in fact strengthen by over a cent against the Pound during Wednesday’s trading, with the markets citing the RBA’s decision not to cut their base rate as a positive, rather than looking at the negative spin.

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GBP/AUD Forecast (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped slightly during Wednesday’s trading, ahead of tomorrow’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The Pound has enjoyed a fine run over recent weeks, with GBP/AUD rates getting close to a 6 year high on multiple occasions. However, the AUD has found support under the 2 level and I do feel it will require a further shift in market conditions to tip rates above this threshold.

Tomorrow’s data is key for the UK, as a bullish reading is likely to solidify the Pound’s position. Similarly any dip below expectation could push GBP/AUD levels back towards 1.95, which would certainly bring some respite to those clients looking to sell AUD after a tough couple of weeks. With little data of note for Australia in the run up to the weekend, I anticipate tomorrow’s figures to carry even weight than usual, in determining GBP/AUD positions over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Rates Remain Volatile (Matthew Vassallo)

The recent volatility on GBP/AUD rates looks set to continue in the short-term, with many investors holding out for rates to spike back above 2. It did seem as if this was an inevitability earlier this week with rates spiking over 1.99 but as is the case with any volatile currency pair, conditions can change quickly and aggressively.

The AUD found market support under 2 and started to realign itself against Sterling. This move was exaggerated following the release of this morning’s UK Retail Sales figures, which came out worse than expected. Subsequently the AUD has moved by over two cents high to low, with GBP/AUD now floating around 1.96. Despite this dip we are still seeing some of the best levels of the past 6 years for any client looking to purchase AUD. with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as committed as ever to lowering the value of the AUD and a slowdown in China’s economy (China are Australia’s largest trade partners), it may be that this spike in value for the AUD is short-lived.

Looking ahead to next week and there is little data of note for Australia, so it is likely Thursday’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures which are likely to dominate headlines and cause additional volatility on GBP/AUD exchange rates.

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Where Next for GBP/AUD Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD have spiked up once again during Wednesday’s trading, with rates moving over 2 cents. This increased volatility is at least in part due to the latest UK unemployment figures which were released this morning. Figures came in better than expected at 5.7% and boosted Sterling’s value across the board.

The AUD has struggled for some time and with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unequivocally committed to devaluing the AUD in order to boost trade, it is not a surprise to see GBP/AUD trading close to a 6 year high. RBA governor Glenn Stevens recently spoke about how the stagnation of the Australian economy was of major concern and that the central bank’s ability to kick start the economy by lowering interest rates had ‘diminished considerably’, eluding to the fact that the RBA could not just continue to cut their base interest rate to counter on-going economic concerns.

Whilst the Bank of England (BoE) will not be keen to see Sterling’s value rise unopposed, they may have little options available to counter this and a move back above 2, at least in the short-term, is certainly a possibility.

Looking ahead and Friday’s UK Retail Sales figures are likely to dominate headlines for the rest of the trading week and could cause additional volatility on GBP/AUD exchange rates as we head into the weekend.

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Will the Recent Trend on GBP/AUD Rates Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

The recent positive trend for Sterling against the AUD is showing no signs of relenting, despite the pair hitting a fresh 5 and a half year high during this morning’s trading. The reason for this spike is, at least in part, due to the Australian unemployment figures released overnight. These showed that unemployment is standing at 6.4%, higher than the 6.2% prediction and this will cause further concerns over the Australian economy, which is already reeling following the slowdown in China’s economic growth and ultimately their demand for Australia’s vast supplies of raw materials.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have stayed steadfast in their commitment to lower the AUD’s value, so will not be concerned by the current trend but the economic stagnation down-under is likely to raise alarm bells, as the Australian economy is so heavily reliant on its export trade, that any sustained slowdown in this area will be of grave concern.

Many investors will now be waiting for the 2 barrier to be breached and although this now looks likely, whether or not rates will hold above this in the medium to long-term is certainly debatable.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk