Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast
Many with a buying Australian Dollar requirement would have had their hearts in the mouth by midday today, with GBP/AUD on the verge of breaking through 1.58 once more. Frankly over the past few days we have seen jaw-dropping falls which almost immediately recover from bizarre news releases that need to be explained.
Firstly, yesterday most news was focussed towards Canada. A country rarely covered on this website, but as a currency whose value is also heavily linked to the commodity markets such as the Aussie, there are parallels which can be drawn.
The Bank of Canada had their Monetary Policy statement which showed that the people at the helm of the Canadian economy believed they were heading to a slowdown in growth in the near future.
Earlier that morning the value of most commodity currencies had risen due to a strong boost to oil prices. All of a sudden markets were faced with a conundrum that despit oil prices rising the Canadian central bank were expecting slower growth. From the chatter we’ve heard it seemed like markets believed they expected this rally for commodity prices to be shortlived – causing just as an immediate loss in value and cheapening of the Australian Dollar as the gains recorded that morning.
Similarly, today the Pound was subject to a lot of movement due to the European Central Bank Monetary Policy statement.
Initial hints made by Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, suggested high expectations for Eurozone growth and drew a lot of investor activity away from the Pound and into its closest neighbour. The secondary effect was that the Pound lost value against its other pairings, such as the Australian Dollar.
The reverse then occured when Draghi made heavy hints that their next meeting in December that an extension to their current emergency stimulus package will be announced, causing the Pounds lost value to return, and then some.
This is just another reminder that markets are currently hypersensitive and opportunities emerge quickly to then dissapear. In this current market a premium is put on being able to move quickly should any opportunities emerge.
I offer a very proactive service to my customers to ensure you are not ‘last to the party’ should any opportunties emerge. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer later in the year, whether buying or selling Australian Dollars, and wish to eliminate risk entirely.
You can contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on email@example.com or reach me on the form below and I will reply as soon as I am able.
At the end of last week anyone with a buying Australian Dollar requirment would have been feeling anxiety akin to the 10+ Cent drops following the Leave vote in June on GBP/AUD.
Mark Carney and his team at the Bank of England are attempting to backtrack all transactions that day to find the route cause, but the consensus is that automatic trading algorithms created a ‘flash crash’ in reaction to a large position in Sterling being sold, which means that Pound was being sold off in droves – with the resulting panic seeing its value drop through the floor.
This event was seen as an anomaly on financial markets. Whilst arguably this could not have happened without the heightened nervousness surrounding the UK and the Pound at the moment in the wake of the Leave vote back in June, this is not representative of a heavy trend against the interest of Australian Dollar buyers in the short term.
So what does this mean for buying Australian Dollar rates moving forward?
We already saw a net recovery on GBP/AUD by the end of the day back above 1.63. As such, on Monday, I expect similar gains for the Pound against the Australian Dollar, as a calmer market will see the opportunity to buy up the mountain of cheap Sterling created by Friday’s trading. With increased demand for the Pound its value would rise parralel to it.
However, markets are anything but stable at the moment,and as as Friday proved, barely even rational on occasions.
As such I would not expect a return above 1.66/67 anytime soon. Anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should know that a premium will be put over the next few weeks and even months on being in a position ot move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge to ensure you are never ‘last to the party’ when it comes to your purchase.
I offer a proactive service to keep my customers informed of such opportunties, and any changes in expectations on the currency markets to ensure you remain a well informed purchaser.
Australian Dollar sellers are in a more enjoyable position for sure at the moment for obvious reasons. If you wish to ensure this gifted movement on the exchange rates are seized you can contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org over the weekend whilst markets are closed for an immediate quote on your transfer. However, if you are taking a longer term view and can afford to wait beyond the next few weeks, then we can still discuss how best to approach this marketplace in order to safeguard your transfer with the aim towards maximising your currency return.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase later in the year. Pre-booking your currency could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase or sale of Australian Dollars.
Australian Dollar buyers and sellers alike can also get in contact with me using the form below, and I will respond as soon as I am able.
The pound has dropped in the Asian session to fresh lows on GBPAUD of 1.63 as investors remain fearful over just what is next for the UK and the pound. No one wants to be holding the beleaguered pound since investors are worried about what the future holds politically for the UK. With senior partners in the Eurozone Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel confirming that the UK will not have unfettered access to the single market the UK is looking increasingly isolated as it prepares to leave the EU.
The knock on effects and affects of this are sterling weakness. This seems highly likely to continue as we learn of more fresh news on the rates and the political situation in the UK. The expectation is for further movements on the rates as we learn of a further gulf between the UK and its EU partners.
If you have a transfer involving the pound or Australian dollar then these latest movements will be crucial to the rates you receive on your exchange. Rates never move purely in a straight line but we do see big swings that can have a huge influence on the value of the currency you are looking to buy.
Most rates have been between 1.63 and 1.64 today so this will be something to keep a very close eye on in the coming weeks and months. If you need to make any transfers in the coming weeks and months then making some plans in advance is key to reducing the risk and uncertainty in the market. For more information on what will happen next on GBPAUD and to kept updated please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing email@example.com, alternatively please call 01494 787 478 or fill in the form below.
GBPAUD rates have risen over 1.70 as sterling finds a little more support during a tough week and a raft of Asian data does little to lend support to the more recent strength on the Aussie. If you look at Chinese PMI, it came in just above 50 at 50.1. Anything above 50 represents expansion so in theory this is mildly supportive but a couple of notches lower and it represents a decline which would be negative for the Aussie. Other data came from Japan where New Home Sales were much lower. With Japan buying raw materials from Australia which would be used in the Construction sector less home sales will not be good for the Aussie economy. We have also had some Australian domestic data with Private Sector Credit slipping which explains the slight weakness from yesterday on the GBPAUD rates.
If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then this spike might be well worth taking advantage of. The expectations for sterling are not good and currently we are trading at very close to a 2 week high. Next week is the all important UK PMI data which is according to an assessment of the recent business surveys, unlikely to be positive for the pound. Next month is also the release of the first GDP release for the UK following the vote, we have seen deterioration’s in many areas of the UK economy, namely the Services sector and business confidence. What has kept sterling above water since the vote has been the impressive Retail data. This was based on good weather and a feel good factor from the Olympics, this is clearly not something we can rely on to support sterling in the next few months!
With the new RBA Governor making clear he is moving away from constantly cutting interest rates that ‘have little impact’ Australian dollar buyers upset at the recent moves lower on GBPAUD should not be crying over spilt milk. Historical followers of the rate will remember when GBPAUD dropped to 1.50 5 years ago. Looking at all the data in front of us and the expectation the Bank of England will cut well before the RBA do, a move into the lower 1.60’s seems very probable next month.
If you have a transfer to make and are interested in learning more. I would be interested to speak to you and help provide information to help you make a decision. Nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, making plans in advance even for the long term is usually a good idea. My name is Jonathan Watson and I am ready to speak to you. Please email firstname.lastname@example.org or fill in the form below.
The author is Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages.
Rollercoaster on buying Australian Dollar rates today raises questions as to what the real trend is? (Joshua Privett)
Buying Australian Dollar rates of exchange showed both dramatic downswings and upswings today, leaving most with a GBP/AUD requirement wondering if this is a signal that the downtrend has abated for now?
To answer that question we have to look to what has actually happened today and while it may seem strange we first need to look to events in the USA.
Whether you watched the debate last night, or caught some of the frankly comic highlight reels of the exchanges between Trump and Clinton online, some of the exit polls released show that a slightly more reserved Trump is playing well with the electorate. Even the BBC polls have it as only a 2 point lead for Clinton.
So to sum up the real result from the debates is the realisation to markets on a global scale that we are in for a ‘close race’. Most of the chatter seen on our screens at the office today was centred arrowed the narrowed odds and uncertain expectations for how the election will unfold.
Similar to the General Election in the UK last year in which the polls were close in the run up to the event, though obviously proved spectacularly wrong later, was enough to label the Pound as risky due to the uncertainty of the UK’s economic future. This same temperment is now attached to the Dollar, with concerning consequences for Australian Dollar buyers.
From a currency perspective, traditionally riskier commodity based currencies such as the AUD, CAD, NZD suddenly do not appear as risky a prospect by comparison for investors eager to enjoy interest rates 3 times higher than that of the US on their capital.
The significant capital outflow this morning the Australian Dollar was the overwhelming reason why its value cannonned upwards against its counterparts, including the Pound through increased demand.
The only saving grace for AUD buyers was that at midday a further slide in commodity prices following a poor result at the most recent OPEC meeting allowed the Pound to recover for a minor gain today.
However, this news today about the US election shall continue to be a prevalent factor on the currency markets, and will continue in earnest in October with less than a month then until the election. If you have an AUD buying requirement, with this recent curveball through into the mix, it may be best to look at moving sooner rather than later unless you have a strong reason to expect Clinton to gain a signficant lead in a short period.
That being said, this commodity price news still has not hit whilst Asian markets are open, so this rally could continue in the short-term. As such a premium will be put on the next 48 hours or so to be in a position to move quickly should any tempting opportunites emerge to buy to ensure you are not ‘last to the party’.
If you have an Australian Dollar buying requirement I strongly recommend getting in contact with me overnight or tomorrow morning whilst markets are relatively quieter on email@example.com to discuss the options open to you to maximise your currency return from the upcoming movements, and most importantly to safeguard your purchase from any adverse movements down the line.
Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss how best to enjoy any peaks which may emerge during the beginning of October – but I appreciate that some may not be in a position to wait for that period of time.
You can also fill out the form below, and I will be in contact as soon as I am able to.
Brexit worries and risk adverse attitudes keep GBP/AUD below 1.70, will the Pound continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)
The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has remained below the 1.70 mark once again today, as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the Pounds value.
Markets have been quiet today anyway as many wait in anticipation for this evenings first US Presidential debate which is bound to be a talking point tomorrow and I wouldn’t rule out it’s effects within foreign exchange markets.
As markets await this evening there has been a lack of risk appetite and risk taking within markets as daily trading ranges are thin, and commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar have weakened off slightly.
Today’s slight weakening of the Aussie Dollar is in contrast with last week, as the Aussie Dollar quietly gained throughout the week and ended up being one of the weeks best performers. Attention was off the currency last week as a number of other major economies were under the spotlight as the US Fed, Bank of Japan and RBNZ all made interest rate decisions, and whilst this was going on AUD quietly outperformed which is why we are looking at a mid-market level below 1.70.
There is a lot of downward pressure on the Pound at the moment as negative sentiment surrounds the UK economy.
If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.
Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.
GBP/AUD rates of exchange suffered heavily on Friday afternoon, with the day’s anticipated speculation habits hurting not just Australian Dollar buyers, but anyone hoping to buy property or move capital abroad holding Sterling.
Each Friday, as my articles on this website have extensively covered since the Leave vote, profit-taking serious undermines the value of the Pound.
High street traders must choose a stable currency to allocate their profits from the week into whilst they are away from their desks. With the uncertainty and question marks over the direction of the UK economy, the Pound is understandly near the bottom of this list. The mass sell-off which ensues on Friday’s like clockwork sees the foundations of the Pound steadily chipped away.
However, the slide for Australian Dollar buyers was more exaggerated than others for one key reason – the change in leadership of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Philip Lowe has taken over from Glenn Stevens who had been at the helm of the Australian economy since 2012. With Lowe being his second in command for most of this time, it was expected that his trigger happy attitude to monetary stimulus and easing would be continued – particularly with Australia still suffering with low inflation and an abnormally strong AUD.
However, he has surprisingly changed his tune. His initial speeches have immediately dismissed the potential for another interest rate cut in the short term and instead pointed out strong forecasts for the Australian economy to improve its inflation levels without intervention.
Whilst longer term expectations are that he is still expected to act, Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term have already felt and may continue to feel the sting of the new face of Australian financial policy, who seems bent on making a mark early.
He will be speaking first thing tomorrow morning in Australia, but he will find it hard to shock markets further. Instead I am expecting a short-term improvement on buying Australian Dollar rates given that Mondays see some reversal on Friday’s trading patterns with the sold-off Pounds readily soaked up.
Given the heavily exaggerated sensitivity of the markets in the post-Brexit vote landscape, a premium is set on being able to move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge.
There are a number of options open to Australian Dollar buyers to make sure you are not ‘last to the party’ in these situations. I recommend that if you have a short to medium term requirement on GBP/AUD you should contact me on email@example.com whilst markets are closed over the weekend to discuss a how best to maximise your currency return.
As a point of not I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency requirement later in the year.
Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact if you are planning a move back to the UK later in the year.
You can also fill out the form below, and I will be in contact as soon as I am able.
GBPAUD rates have slipped from the highs recently seen to now below 1.70 as predicted here earlier this week. Many clients I spoke to this week questioning when to move on their Australian dollar purchase have thanked me for the help to move sooner. Whilst the rate is flirting with 1.70 we might yet see some further improvements for AUD buyers but a steady decline in the value of the pound seems likely whilst so much political uncertainty clouds the UK. If you have a currency transfer to consider involving the pound and Australian dollar then making some plans sooner rather than later seems to me very sensible in the current market.
The projections on the currency were dealt some light this week with the new appointment of a new Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe. He seemed fairly positive in his commentary around the state of the economy suggesting that the falls in mining and commodity industries in the Australian economy may have bottomed out and that the future might not be so bad. He suggested that the split between raising or lowering rates was 50 to 50. This means there could be a fairly choppy move forward on the AUD as investors scramble to make sense of any plans.
If you have a transfer to consider involving buying the pound or Australian dollar then making some plans in such a clearly uncertain market is sensible! I am Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest privately owned currency brokerages with close to ten years experience looking after and managing both private clients and business clients foreign exchange transfers. Now is the right time to be looking to make a plan if you have a currency transfer pending, for more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
The sentiment surround the upcoming US interest rate decision has changed dramatically in recent weeks, and with this coming at the same time as sudden hints about a further interest rate cut in the UK, the value of the Pound, and therefore buying Australian Dollar rates, are moving and sliding much more heavily than normal.
Whilst not providing a direct impact on views of the Australian or UK economies, the US interest rate decision is a massive event and causes extensive ripples to pervade through the financial world, with currency seeing the largest effects.
Heavy hints made by the Bank of England on Thursday that they may be a further interest rate cut in the UK to manage the fallout from the Brexit below the current record low of 0.25% stunned markets, and led to the surprise sell-off of Sterling which resulted in the sudden fall away from 1.76 to the lower 1.70’s visible today.
The anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the US vote is set to exaggerate this.
The US raised their rates last December to 0.5%, and after months of waiting, pressure is mounting on the FED to raise rates further to 0.75%. Should this happen the Pound will look even less desirable by comparison to the likes of the US Dollar and even the Australian Dollar, which still enjoys 1.5% interest rates on those holding the currency.
Consensus on the market is split. Whilst recent US economic performance data supports the move, the state of the global economy and the lack of certainty on future US direction with a looming election has most banks betting that a hike will wait potentially until the December meeting. The only major banks publicly stating a hike to 0.75% will occur are Barclay and BNP Paribas.
The news does not come out until 7pm UK time so Australian Dollar buyers and sellers still have plenty of time to plan a course of action which will either see any opportunities presented maximised to their full potential on GBP/AUD, or to safeguard an upcoming transfer from the potentially adverse movements which may occur depending on your risk appetite.
I strongly recommend that anyone with a GBP/AUD requirement should contact me to discuss the options open to you to achieve either of the above, and approach what could prove to be one of the most volatile days on the market safely. You can call email me on email@example.com and I will be able to respond within 15 minutes, or you can fill out the form below.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere so a brief conversation surrounding your upcoming transfer, alongside the potential for serious exchange rate movements today could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I will also point out to new readers of my articles that rates of exchange can be fixed in place as they are today in order to ‘pre-book’ your Australian Dollars or Pounds for a future purchase.