Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast
Sterling holds on to it’s recent gains versus the Australia Dollar, will GBP/AUD approach 1.70 once again? (Joseph Wright)
The Pound has been climbing since Tuesday when the UK PM, Theresa May gave clarity to the UK Governments Brexit plans.
Uncertainty almost always weighs on the underlying currency in question and the Pound had felt the effects prior to her speech on Tuesday, but in it’s wake the Pound had one of it’s best days in years and gained against the US Dollar by it’s largest margin since 2008.
At the time of writing the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading around the 1.63 mark and I wouldn’t rule out a move above 1.65 if the positive sentiment surrounding the Pound continues.
It’s also important to note that today is the day of Trump’s inauguration in the US, and due to the potential impact of his Presidency right from the onset, I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors lose interest in risk-correlated currency such as AUD, and prefer to hold funds within safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen. Should this be the case it’s likely that the Aussie Dollar will suffer, which could aide the GBP/AUD pair and push it above 1.65.
There are no major economic data releases today out of the UK or Australia so I expect sentiment and Trump’s inauguration to drive the pair, and moving forward if you wish to be kept updated with key data releases feel free to get in touch.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on firstname.lastname@example.org in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates this week have been the biggest under-performer in the marketplace, with GBP/AUD exchange rates dripping down below the 1.65 point once more.
This was due to a combination of curve-balls that have left investors and analysts frustrated at the sheer number of variable impacting GBP/AUD rates of exchange.
Markets went into the week anticipating net gains for Sterling. Strong economic performance data was anticipated on Wednesday, which ended up exceeding expectations. Furthermore the expectation of an upcoming Supreme Court ruling favorable for the Pound on the financial markets should have provided a buoyant and supportive platform for Sterling exchange rates this week.
However, two unforeseeable events stole the spotlight.
Firstly Theresa May’s comments on a Sky news interview on Sunday, which the website has documented repeatedly, caused the air of cautious confidence surrounding the Pound to be violently replaced with anxiety. Hints at a harder Brexit were made, and financial markets rarely appreciate hefty changes to the status quo.
Secondly, GBP/AUD fell foul from the most recent scandal to come from President-Elect Trump’s camp. Serious allegations have been made about the campaign’s active association with Russia, and, as such confidence in the Dollar was justifiably shaken.
In these instances, investors seek high short-term returns elsewhere whilst the storm blows over. The high interest on the likes of the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar are just the ticket and is why GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD have had the most difficult week.
However, the excitement about the upcoming Supreme Court decision is still there…if now a little quieter.
The lessons from this week for AUD buyers is that unsuspecting news at the moment, with the charged atmosphere in the run up to the triggering of Article 50, can be more hurtful for Sterling than helpful.
As such, expected opportunities should be seized to avoid the increasing risk as we edge closer to March. The Supreme Court ruling could come out any day from now so a premium will be put on being able to move quickly this week to avoid being last to the party on any improvement, which in this currently hypersensitive market may only be around for short while.
You can contact me on email@example.com or by calling on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception team for me (Josh) to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximizing your currency return and protecting it from any sudden pitfalls, which can occur in this marketplace with little warning.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
GBP/AUD rate hits it’s lowest level in a month despite positive UK data releases, why is the Pound weakening? (Joseph Wright)
Yesterday saw the pound fall against almost all other major currency pairs, and this has happened despite some strong economic data releases out of the UK throughout the week.
Perhaps the most important economic release came out early yesterday morning, as the UK Services PMI figures showed that sentiment within the services sector of the UK improved through the month of December. This update is key as the services sector accounts for over two-thirds of the UK’s economic output so it’s important for the UK that the sector remains buoyant.
Moreover the PMI figures were released in the manufacturing and construction sector earlier in the week and despite those being positive also, the Pound has softened and yesterday hit it’s lowest level in a month of 1.6821 at the mid-market level, after beginning the week at 1.7128.
The reason behind the weakening of the pound this week can be put down to Brexit jitters, as investors await the outcome of the supreme courts ruling on whether the UK government requires parliamentary approval in order to begin the Brexit process.
I’m expecting to see the Pound fall in value further if the government is successful in their appeal and allowed to begin the Brexit within the next few months, without the need to consult parliament. The outcome of the Supreme Courts decision is due between the 12th and the 17th of this month so anyone planning a currency conversion between GBP and AUD should pay close attention to this key topic, as it’s likely to have an impact on the pair.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on firstname.lastname@example.org to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
Buying Australian Dollar rates relatively stagnant ahead of US interest rate decision (Joshua Privett)
Buying Australian Dollar rates have remained relatively stable following a sudden reversal in some of the Pound’s recent gains on Wednesday of this week.
The Pound has been pressurized once more this week however, with a live court case in the Supreme Court as the Government appeals the decision of the Judicial Court in November, with uncertainty over the direction of the Brexit weighing heavily on the Pound once more.
The frenzy of investors flowing into Sterling was the result of the previous Judicial decision which meant Government had to consult Parliament through the Brexit process. This jump in Sterling’s value due to increased demand was attributed to the high expectation that Parliament’s involvement in the process itself would yield a longer time-frame for the UK to enact a Brexit, alongside the likelihood that MP’s would push to retain closer economic ties with the EU.
This renewed uncertainty is what has caused Sterling to lose some of its recent strength.
Moving forward the US interest rate decision on Wednesday next week will likely provide a further boon for AUD buyers.
The Australian Dollar enjoys hefty demand due to the high level of interest available compared to other major currencies. Currently this stacks up at 1.5% compared to 0.25% in the UK and 0.5% in the US for example.
However, the US, following a succession of staggering performance figures released in their economy in recent months, despite the uncertainty surrounding their recent election, it seems likely that the US will be raising theirs next Wednesday to 0.75% barring any surprises.
The expectation is that if a stable currency is offering 0.75% interest, compared to an unstable Australian Dollar which yields 1.5%, then many investors will choose to leave the Australian Dollar and opt instead to secure US Dollars, with the AUD becoming cheaper with any mass sell off which ensues.
In the medium term however, the Pound is expected to take what could be quite a serious hammering due to speculative profit taking by high street traders which is set to take place in the latter part of December. Thus Australian Dollar buyers may see a ‘sweet spot’ emerging on GBP/AUD over the next week or so.
In these instances it is best to be in a position to move fairly quickly in case any tempting opportunities emerge, and the well informed purchaser will certainly have an advantage to avoid being ‘last to the party’ and being forced to accept a rate of exchange below any premium which is reached.
I am in a position to offer a proactive service to help my customers in timing their transfers, particularly during these volatile periods, in order to secure desirable exchange rates. I work for one of the UK’s leading brokerages with the average tenure of our dealer’s being in excess of 8 years in this job – longer than most companies in their entirety – so I am ideally placed to secure the most competitive rates and have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere for GBP/AUD. Simply contact me over the weekend on email@example.com and I will respond as soon as I am able.
Similarly if you are looking to be buying Sterling, as my article points out there are likely to be further opportunities for you later in the month with a cheaper Pound, so you can contact me to discuss the options open to you to monitor the markets and secure a desired exchange rate.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Could Trump force Yellen’s Hand
The Australian Dollar has been particularly attractive of late due to it’s relative safety compared to other major currencies and the promise of high interest. The current rate level is at 1.5%.
Trump has strong views on where interest rates should be in the US. At the beginning of the year the FED indicated there would be several rate hikes throughout 2016, none of which have been yet to materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, recent political uncertainty due to the Presidential election could held back any decision to raise rate by the FED. Trump has widely criticised Janet Yellen, the FED chair for the lack of hikes and has threatened to remove her from her position. There has been positive data both in manufacturing and unemployment and I would very surprised not to see a rate hike on 14th December. Although this will be largely filtered into current rates of exchange if there is an excessive sell off of Australian Dollars as investors seek the safe haven of the US Dollar we could expect the Aussie to weaken.
If you have to perform a trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade can make a huge difference to your retrun during such volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading my blog.
Australian Dollar Outlook
Today the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet. There has been a push in recent times by the member states to limit oil production to force oil prices higher, over supply has been a large problem for a considerable time. It has taken long and tough negotiations to get to this stage.
Australia is a commodity based currency and can be influenced heavily by oil price. Any rise in oil value should see Australian Dollar strength. The oil price has been rising in anticipation that a deal will come to fruition in Vienna. The main concern for a breakdown is negotiations is Iran and Iraq agreeing to limit production and sticking to it, there has been problems in the past. We will hear news of proceedings at the 4pm press conference.
I would also keep a close eye on trade negotiations between the US and China. Australia is heavily reliant on raw material export to China. Trump has stated his attention to substantially limit trade with China. This has the potential to write trillions off both country’s GDP. If the world’s two largest economies are at logger heads it could have serious implications for the Australian Dollar.
If you have a currency trade to perform it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade can be crucial during such volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country, foreign currency Direct PLC and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at email@example.com. Thank you for reading my blog.
Buying Australian Dollar rates have seen a marked improvement recently thanks to events over in the US, however, with the UK’s Autumn Statement next week.
Initially the timeline for the next US interest rate hike sat squarely in December, and Trump’s heavy support for such a hike makes the occurrence even more likely. One of the most attractive features of the Australian Dollar is its high interest return compared to other currencies, sitting at 1.5% compared to 0.25% in the UK and 0.5% in the US.
As such, any hike in the US interest rate will give another option for investors hoping for higher returns on their capital but who are not willing to gamble on slightly higher returns of a currency proven to be unable to hold its value for a consistent period. Capital is being moved into the US Dollar ahead of time as financial speculators gamble on the result, and the resulting lower demand for the Australian Dollar has made it a cheaper prospect.
Yet Friday trading continues to be a feature which haunts the Pound and anyone considering buying AUD.
On Friday afternoons the actors who regularly move capital large enough to shift the currency markets, high street traders, have to decide which currency to allocate their capital into to end the week. The Pound, despite the recent improvements, is anything but stable, and is regularly at the bottom of this list during this period. This is why the Pound has consistently lost value during this period due to decreased demand.
However, we will likely some improvements to begin the week as markets return to normal.
The Pound’s inability to bridge key resistance levels means that remaining an informed position and being able to move quite quickly would be a valuable thing indeed. To compliment this a limit order is a popular option which I offer my customers to automatically buy your currency once a particular level is reached to avoid missing any opportunities.
To discuss a strategy for your transfer, to explore current forecasts on buying or selling Euro rates in more detail, and to answer any questions you may have about the benefits of using a currency broker to assist in your transfer, you can contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on firstname.lastname@example.org
You can also fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able to.
Politics continues to be the governing force on buying Australian Dollar rates. Previously the seemingly uninterrupted run towards the enaction of Article 50 in March was pushing GBP/AUD down on the verge of touching below 1.60, yet Thursday’s news has provided another surprise twist in the Brexit storyline.
On Thursday it was ruled that Article 50 could not be enacted without the permission of Parliament voting on the matter. Financial markets have made no secret that they wish for the status quo to remain unchanged. Any delays, or hopeful signs that the UK will remain part of the single market,has provided much needed support for the Pound since the Leave vote.
We saw similar movements on buying Australian Dollar rates when Theresa May calmed markets as soon as taking office as Prime Minister by stating Article 50 would not be enacted until next year. The expectations that the slow process of parliamentary procedure will be enough to stall the formal process of leaving the EU beyond its current March 2017 deadline was enough to the see the Pound bolt upwards against its major counterparts.
Furthermore, we now have the likes of Jeremy Corbyn stating that Labour will block Article 50 unless the Government can guarantee that the UK remains part of the single market.
The story is certainly not over, since the Government is appealing the decision, but hopes are not high given that the court has already ruled against them. This isnt a murder mystery, theres no new evidence which can come to light. This decision is likely to be uphold.
The atmosphere surrounding the Pound has therefore shifted. Markets are more confident of the liklihood of the UK remaining in the single market given the intransigence of many members of Parliament. GBP/AUD is up almost 2% on the news, and unlike previous spikes, seems to be holding its value.
In this currently evolving climate, particularly with the strong impact of the American election on Tuesday rippling through the currency markets in the beginning of the week, a premium will be put on being a well informed purchaser. Being in a position to move quickly alongside the immediate relay of any positive or negative news to inform your decisions is key.
I offer a proactive service to my customers to manage just that, and there are a number of options open to you in order to ensure you are never ‘last to the party’ when positive spikes emerge, and that your transfer, whether in the immediate or even long term, is safeguarded against a sudden downturn.
You can contact me on email@example.com to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return whilst markets are closed for the weekend. You can also fill our the form below and I will respond as soon as I am able.