Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast
Australian Dollar Outlook
Today the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet. There has been a push in recent times by the member states to limit oil production to force oil prices higher, over supply has been a large problem for a considerable time. It has taken long and tough negotiations to get to this stage.
Australia is a commodity based currency and can be influenced heavily by oil price. Any rise in oil value should see Australian Dollar strength. The oil price has been rising in anticipation that a deal will come to fruition in Vienna. The main concern for a breakdown is negotiations is Iran and Iraq agreeing to limit production and sticking to it, there has been problems in the past. We will hear news of proceedings at the 4pm press conference.
I would also keep a close eye on trade negotiations between the US and China. Australia is heavily reliant on raw material export to China. Trump has stated his attention to substantially limit trade with China. This has the potential to write trillions off both country’s GDP. If the world’s two largest economies are at logger heads it could have serious implications for the Australian Dollar.
If you have a currency trade to perform it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade can be crucial during such volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country, foreign currency Direct PLC and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading my blog.
Buying Australian Dollar rates have seen a marked improvement recently thanks to events over in the US, however, with the UK’s Autumn Statement next week.
Initially the timeline for the next US interest rate hike sat squarely in December, and Trump’s heavy support for such a hike makes the occurrence even more likely. One of the most attractive features of the Australian Dollar is its high interest return compared to other currencies, sitting at 1.5% compared to 0.25% in the UK and 0.5% in the US.
As such, any hike in the US interest rate will give another option for investors hoping for higher returns on their capital but who are not willing to gamble on slightly higher returns of a currency proven to be unable to hold its value for a consistent period. Capital is being moved into the US Dollar ahead of time as financial speculators gamble on the result, and the resulting lower demand for the Australian Dollar has made it a cheaper prospect.
Yet Friday trading continues to be a feature which haunts the Pound and anyone considering buying AUD.
On Friday afternoons the actors who regularly move capital large enough to shift the currency markets, high street traders, have to decide which currency to allocate their capital into to end the week. The Pound, despite the recent improvements, is anything but stable, and is regularly at the bottom of this list during this period. This is why the Pound has consistently lost value during this period due to decreased demand.
However, we will likely some improvements to begin the week as markets return to normal.
The Pound’s inability to bridge key resistance levels means that remaining an informed position and being able to move quite quickly would be a valuable thing indeed. To compliment this a limit order is a popular option which I offer my customers to automatically buy your currency once a particular level is reached to avoid missing any opportunities.
To discuss a strategy for your transfer, to explore current forecasts on buying or selling Euro rates in more detail, and to answer any questions you may have about the benefits of using a currency broker to assist in your transfer, you can contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on email@example.com
You can also fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able to.
Politics continues to be the governing force on buying Australian Dollar rates. Previously the seemingly uninterrupted run towards the enaction of Article 50 in March was pushing GBP/AUD down on the verge of touching below 1.60, yet Thursday’s news has provided another surprise twist in the Brexit storyline.
On Thursday it was ruled that Article 50 could not be enacted without the permission of Parliament voting on the matter. Financial markets have made no secret that they wish for the status quo to remain unchanged. Any delays, or hopeful signs that the UK will remain part of the single market,has provided much needed support for the Pound since the Leave vote.
We saw similar movements on buying Australian Dollar rates when Theresa May calmed markets as soon as taking office as Prime Minister by stating Article 50 would not be enacted until next year. The expectations that the slow process of parliamentary procedure will be enough to stall the formal process of leaving the EU beyond its current March 2017 deadline was enough to the see the Pound bolt upwards against its major counterparts.
Furthermore, we now have the likes of Jeremy Corbyn stating that Labour will block Article 50 unless the Government can guarantee that the UK remains part of the single market.
The story is certainly not over, since the Government is appealing the decision, but hopes are not high given that the court has already ruled against them. This isnt a murder mystery, theres no new evidence which can come to light. This decision is likely to be uphold.
The atmosphere surrounding the Pound has therefore shifted. Markets are more confident of the liklihood of the UK remaining in the single market given the intransigence of many members of Parliament. GBP/AUD is up almost 2% on the news, and unlike previous spikes, seems to be holding its value.
In this currently evolving climate, particularly with the strong impact of the American election on Tuesday rippling through the currency markets in the beginning of the week, a premium will be put on being a well informed purchaser. Being in a position to move quickly alongside the immediate relay of any positive or negative news to inform your decisions is key.
I offer a proactive service to my customers to manage just that, and there are a number of options open to you in order to ensure you are never ‘last to the party’ when positive spikes emerge, and that your transfer, whether in the immediate or even long term, is safeguarded against a sudden downturn.
You can contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return whilst markets are closed for the weekend. You can also fill our the form below and I will respond as soon as I am able.
Buying Australian Dollar rates, as with most of Sterling’s major currency pairings, will face heavy risk next week of potential falls.
The Pound has recovered marginally against most of its currency pairings since the flash crash 13 days ago. With most of the major political announcements expected over the next few months concerning the Brexit having already been released, markets are beginning to re-focus back towards the economic side what makes the currency markets tick.
Given that the main piece of political news this weekend was that there was a row over which language the negotiations over Britains exit from the EU will take place, it’s unlikely we can expect much news of substance in the short-term. This inconsequential, pedantic news wont be affecting anyones plans to buy or sell currency anytime soon.
In normal times, economic performance information for each country normally takes centre stage when governing the value of each currency. With the positive or negative natures of the news normally mirroring a parallel movement in the currency’s value.
The key data sets to watch out for next week for Australian Dollar buyers are:
On Wednesday inflation data for the Australian economy will be released overnight, and is set to show a healthy improvement compared to the concerns a few months ago. A positive result will suggest that the Australian economy is continuing to perform well and will continue to quieten calls for a further interest rate cut. A stronger and more expensive AUD is the natural result should this occur as expected.
On Thursday, the most important data release the UK has seen arguably since the leave vote will be released. Growth figures for quarter three of this year. This is the first full quarter since the Referendum vote, and as such, will be the first opportunity for the UK to gauge how close we are to a recession in its aftermath.
Currently expectations are that we will stave off recession, but growth this quarter will be more than halved down to 0.3%. Should this figure come in any lower, then frankly the Pound could see similar tumbles to the flash crash a couple of weeks before.
Seemingly without any opportunity for the Pound to improve this week, and with plenty of downside risk. Anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement in the short term may be wise to consider moving sooner rather than later to avoid facing some painful buying rates towards the end of this month.
You can contact me directly over the weekend whilst markets are closed on email@example.com to discuss a strategy for your transfer to safeguard it from any potential downswings and to maximise your currency return from this current marketplace.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed in place -essentially pre-booking your currency- for a future transfer.
Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact with me to discuss how to make the most of the expected movements in your favour within the timeframe you have to complete your transfer. A brief conversation could save you thousands.
You can also fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able.
Many with a buying Australian Dollar requirement would have had their hearts in the mouth by midday today, with GBP/AUD on the verge of breaking through 1.58 once more. Frankly over the past few days we have seen jaw-dropping falls which almost immediately recover from bizarre news releases that need to be explained.
Firstly, yesterday most news was focussed towards Canada. A country rarely covered on this website, but as a currency whose value is also heavily linked to the commodity markets such as the Aussie, there are parallels which can be drawn.
The Bank of Canada had their Monetary Policy statement which showed that the people at the helm of the Canadian economy believed they were heading to a slowdown in growth in the near future.
Earlier that morning the value of most commodity currencies had risen due to a strong boost to oil prices. All of a sudden markets were faced with a conundrum that despit oil prices rising the Canadian central bank were expecting slower growth. From the chatter we’ve heard it seemed like markets believed they expected this rally for commodity prices to be shortlived – causing just as an immediate loss in value and cheapening of the Australian Dollar as the gains recorded that morning.
Similarly, today the Pound was subject to a lot of movement due to the European Central Bank Monetary Policy statement.
Initial hints made by Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, suggested high expectations for Eurozone growth and drew a lot of investor activity away from the Pound and into its closest neighbour. The secondary effect was that the Pound lost value against its other pairings, such as the Australian Dollar.
The reverse then occured when Draghi made heavy hints that their next meeting in December that an extension to their current emergency stimulus package will be announced, causing the Pounds lost value to return, and then some.
This is just another reminder that markets are currently hypersensitive and opportunities emerge quickly to then dissapear. In this current market a premium is put on being able to move quickly should any opportunities emerge.
I offer a very proactive service to my customers to ensure you are not ‘last to the party’ should any opportunties emerge. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer later in the year, whether buying or selling Australian Dollars, and wish to eliminate risk entirely.
You can contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on firstname.lastname@example.org or reach me on the form below and I will reply as soon as I am able.
At the end of last week anyone with a buying Australian Dollar requirment would have been feeling anxiety akin to the 10+ Cent drops following the Leave vote in June on GBP/AUD.
Mark Carney and his team at the Bank of England are attempting to backtrack all transactions that day to find the route cause, but the consensus is that automatic trading algorithms created a ‘flash crash’ in reaction to a large position in Sterling being sold, which means that Pound was being sold off in droves – with the resulting panic seeing its value drop through the floor.
This event was seen as an anomaly on financial markets. Whilst arguably this could not have happened without the heightened nervousness surrounding the UK and the Pound at the moment in the wake of the Leave vote back in June, this is not representative of a heavy trend against the interest of Australian Dollar buyers in the short term.
So what does this mean for buying Australian Dollar rates moving forward?
We already saw a net recovery on GBP/AUD by the end of the day back above 1.63. As such, on Monday, I expect similar gains for the Pound against the Australian Dollar, as a calmer market will see the opportunity to buy up the mountain of cheap Sterling created by Friday’s trading. With increased demand for the Pound its value would rise parralel to it.
However, markets are anything but stable at the moment,and as as Friday proved, barely even rational on occasions.
As such I would not expect a return above 1.66/67 anytime soon. Anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should know that a premium will be put over the next few weeks and even months on being in a position ot move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge to ensure you are never ‘last to the party’ when it comes to your purchase.
I offer a proactive service to keep my customers informed of such opportunties, and any changes in expectations on the currency markets to ensure you remain a well informed purchaser.
Australian Dollar sellers are in a more enjoyable position for sure at the moment for obvious reasons. If you wish to ensure this gifted movement on the exchange rates are seized you can contact me on email@example.com over the weekend whilst markets are closed for an immediate quote on your transfer. However, if you are taking a longer term view and can afford to wait beyond the next few weeks, then we can still discuss how best to approach this marketplace in order to safeguard your transfer with the aim towards maximising your currency return.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase later in the year. Pre-booking your currency could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase or sale of Australian Dollars.
Australian Dollar buyers and sellers alike can also get in contact with me using the form below, and I will respond as soon as I am able.
The pound has dropped in the Asian session to fresh lows on GBPAUD of 1.63 as investors remain fearful over just what is next for the UK and the pound. No one wants to be holding the beleaguered pound since investors are worried about what the future holds politically for the UK. With senior partners in the Eurozone Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel confirming that the UK will not have unfettered access to the single market the UK is looking increasingly isolated as it prepares to leave the EU.
The knock on effects and affects of this are sterling weakness. This seems highly likely to continue as we learn of more fresh news on the rates and the political situation in the UK. The expectation is for further movements on the rates as we learn of a further gulf between the UK and its EU partners.
If you have a transfer involving the pound or Australian dollar then these latest movements will be crucial to the rates you receive on your exchange. Rates never move purely in a straight line but we do see big swings that can have a huge influence on the value of the currency you are looking to buy.
Most rates have been between 1.63 and 1.64 today so this will be something to keep a very close eye on in the coming weeks and months. If you need to make any transfers in the coming weeks and months then making some plans in advance is key to reducing the risk and uncertainty in the market. For more information on what will happen next on GBPAUD and to kept updated please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org, alternatively please call 01494 787 478 or fill in the form below.
GBPAUD rates have risen over 1.70 as sterling finds a little more support during a tough week and a raft of Asian data does little to lend support to the more recent strength on the Aussie. If you look at Chinese PMI, it came in just above 50 at 50.1. Anything above 50 represents expansion so in theory this is mildly supportive but a couple of notches lower and it represents a decline which would be negative for the Aussie. Other data came from Japan where New Home Sales were much lower. With Japan buying raw materials from Australia which would be used in the Construction sector less home sales will not be good for the Aussie economy. We have also had some Australian domestic data with Private Sector Credit slipping which explains the slight weakness from yesterday on the GBPAUD rates.
If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then this spike might be well worth taking advantage of. The expectations for sterling are not good and currently we are trading at very close to a 2 week high. Next week is the all important UK PMI data which is according to an assessment of the recent business surveys, unlikely to be positive for the pound. Next month is also the release of the first GDP release for the UK following the vote, we have seen deterioration’s in many areas of the UK economy, namely the Services sector and business confidence. What has kept sterling above water since the vote has been the impressive Retail data. This was based on good weather and a feel good factor from the Olympics, this is clearly not something we can rely on to support sterling in the next few months!
With the new RBA Governor making clear he is moving away from constantly cutting interest rates that ‘have little impact’ Australian dollar buyers upset at the recent moves lower on GBPAUD should not be crying over spilt milk. Historical followers of the rate will remember when GBPAUD dropped to 1.50 5 years ago. Looking at all the data in front of us and the expectation the Bank of England will cut well before the RBA do, a move into the lower 1.60’s seems very probable next month.
If you have a transfer to make and are interested in learning more. I would be interested to speak to you and help provide information to help you make a decision. Nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, making plans in advance even for the long term is usually a good idea. My name is Jonathan Watson and I am ready to speak to you. Please email email@example.com or fill in the form below.
The author is Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages.