Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

GBP/AUD Rates Heading Back Through 1.80 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates spiked up during Friday morning’s trading and at time of were putting pressure back on 1.80, which seems to be a level the AUD has found support around. The AUD had made gains earlier this week following positive economic data from China and it seemed as though a move back towards 1.75 could be on the cards. However, yesterday’s UK unemployment figures came in much better than expected and halted the AUD in its tracks, before a decisive move back up to the current levels.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still keen to see the AUD weaken off further to help boost exports, it could be argued that the AUD could fall further against the major currencies in the short-term. However, if the demand in China starts to increase for Australia’s raw materials and their economic data continues to improve, it may be that the AUD will find further market support.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can call one of our experienced brokers on 0044 1494 787 478.

AUD remains strong and unemployment figures this week could cause a further gain for the AUD (Ben Amrany)

The Australian Dollar has been performing very well of late against a host of the majors. There has been a big increase in the value of the AUD and has significantly strengthened against the pound of late. The days of 1.90 seems a long time ago now. The news that China’s growth forecasts for 2014 have been cut did not do enough to stop the halt of the Aussie with GBP/AUD falling to as low as 1.7829.

This morning however the UK posted some positive industrial output figures showing a rise much bigger than originally anticipated. The manufacturing production figures also came out extremely strong and since has assisted GBP/AUD to rise back to 1.7926.

The biggest mover for the Aussie Dollar this week will be in the form of their unemployment figures for March. Recently a survey which showed job adverts have increased for a third straight month and if the unemployment rate benefits from this it could cause another spike in the Aussie Dollars favour. Good if selling AUD bad if buying AUD.

This rise this morning goes to show how quickly the change in the rates can occur. If you are looking at buying the AUD then why not challenge us to beat your banks rate either here in the UK or in Australia. I help assist thousands of clients repatriate funds between the two countries and time and time again make our clients significant savings over the banks. If you feel that you need to make a currency exchange then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the options that are available to you in trying to achieve the best exchange rate available.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

rates still at 1.80 against the AUD

The Australian Dollar weakened at one stage this morning after retail sales down under came out worse than expected with a reading of 0.2% where markets were expecting growth within the sector of 0.3% Rates at one stage hit GBP/AUD 1.8070 before falling again down to a low of 1.7944. With the rate very rangebound at the moment significant movements will be dependant on comments from one of the central bank members, economic data or events over in China.

With very little chance of interest rate movements in the UK or in Australia things are very flat. I feel we will see these levels remain until the consumer confidence levels come out next Tuesday for Australia and teh trade balance figures for the UK the day after.

With things so flat I would recommend moving on spikes in the market as I feel this lull in the rates will continue. If you are still holding out for 1.90 and need to trade within the next week or so I would look at things before a further potential drop in the rates occur.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD Rates Fall Below 1.80 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped below 1.80 for the first time in a number of weeks, providing AUD sellers with some much needed respite after the recent four year lows. The AUD has been hampered for some time following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates with the hope it would drive the AUD’s value down and in turn boost their flagging export industry. Whilst the AUD has weakened considerably against GBP, a slowdown in China’s demand for their raw materials has caused further market concerns over the direction of the Australian economy, with unemployment rising and growth forecasts weak in the short to medium-term.

The RBA have tried to alleviate some of the market concerns by announcing that there would be no further rate cuts and with the UK’s economic data showing mixed signals over the past few weeks, has helped push GBP/AUD rates down to the current levels.

I still believe the current levels offer some excellent buying opportunities, especially when you consider it was only 18 months ago that rates were down around 1.45 on the exchange.

Anyone with a GBP/AUD currency requirement should keep a close eye on the release of tomorrow’s UK Retails Sales and Friday’s GDP figures., both of which are likely to be key market movers.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currnecies.co.uk.

RBA causes the AUD to continue to strengthen. Where next for the Aussie Dollar (Ben Amrany)

So it seems that just as we all expected the Australian Dollar to continue to weaken against a host of the major currencies, the AUD is starting to get back too its old habits by strengthening and strengthening again.

We have seen in the space of 2 months the rate against the pound go from 1.90 (0.5263) to a low today of 1.7897 (0.5587) This is a movement of 5.8% in this time-scale. On a £200K purchase this is now over 22000 AUD less than at the peak of the market. If you are looking at selling AUD to buy GBP then you have saved yourself the same volume for buying £200K. If you are looking to capitalise by selling AUD or wish to stop the loss by purchasing the currency you ned then feel free to email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk

The trick now is to work out why we have seen the rate increase and where it may head in the future.  Last night’s movements for the Aussie seems to be down to comments by the RBA after a speech in which Mr Stevens said there was early, encouraging evidence the handover from mining to non-resources industries in the Australian economy was under way. It was an upbeat speech about the economy and this could now give the currency a further boost should they be lending more to individuals and trying to get the GDP of the country higher.  In China they are thinking of implementing stimulus programmes to boost their economy and this could cause a big surge of funds into Australia assisting the AUD to surge further.

It is amazing how quickly the scenario can change in currency. A few months ago I felt that the AUD would continue to strengthen but now if I had AUD to sell I would see if the rate strengthens further before acting. If I was now buying AUD I would not be taking to big a risk and trade on any small spikes that may occur. All of you will have different time-scales and requirements and depending on your circumstances I can talk you through the options that are best for you. If you enjoy reading this website and have a need to make an exchange why not get in contact and we can see if we may be able to help make you a saving on your currency exchange. Just email me at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

Best rates for selling AUD for GBP in 2014!

Current rates for selling AUD for GBP are the best in 2014 and should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates down the line. This is because the general forecast is GBP strength as the UK are looking to raise interest next year whereas Australia are still possibly going to cut interest rates. Whilst more recently they have changed their rate outlook to neutral indicating no immediate moves, the expectation is for more rate cuts down under in the future.

If you need to sell Australian dollars an awareness of the current forecast is key to help you to get the best deals. If you have any transactions to consider why not make us aware? We are currency specialists who can not only assist in better prices and exchange rates than the banks and other sources (like currency brokers) but also provide expertise in the physical transfer process. Understanding exactly how the mechanics of international money transfers work will help you to properly manage any exchange rate volatility.

Whilst the current rate for selling AUD for GBP is not the best in recent it is a big improvement on the rates available this year. And more importantly if you look at the longer term historical view when rates were close to 2.5 AUD per 1 GBP, we are clearly at much improved levels. As the UK comes to the end of its low interest rates period the pound should return to more normal levels against the AUD. Picking the right moment is as always key so to discuss further please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Australian dollar outlook – Can we expect further weakness?

The Australian dollar is looking like it may struggle to weaken as a result of the moves by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia). I will explain more about this in the rest of this post but the point here should not be underestimated; that is the Aussie may not weaken dramatically in the same fashion we have seen it do so in the last year anytime soon.

Central bank Policy

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been seeking a weaker Australian dollar to try and improve their economic position. With over 40 cents, some 27% weakening over the course of the last year, the RBA have certainly achieved their goal. In 2014 the RBA have made two important announcements that anyone buying Australian dolalr should take note of. Firstly they said they had removed their bias towards any kind of rate hike which caused the Aussie to fall from the loft heights of 1.90+ against sterling. Second and more recently they have said there will probably be no further interest rate cuts in 2014.

This is key in determining the future direction of the currency as it makes it very feasible that the Aussie could indeed start to strengthen again against the pound and other contemporaries. In such a scenario we would be looking for sterling to strengthen to cause moves higher for Aussie buyers. There is of course the tapering process and EM (Emerging Market) sell-off which could cause the AUD to lose some value but I do not believe we would see the kind of sharp moves the Aussie is notorious for.

All in all buying AUD at present is at a very good level compared to rates of the last few years. Whilst the much longer term projection is for rates to climb to 1.90 and ultimately 2, this could be way off in the future, probably next year now. And it is likely we will see the rate dip below 1.80 into the 1.70′s before this happens.

If you are going to need to undertake a currency transaction buying or selling AUD in the future, making some careful plans now is a wise move. For more information on what to expect and how to transfer money internationally at the very best exchange rates please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any exchanges

The next 48 hours will be key for GBP/AUD. Capitalise on any spike that may occur in your favour. (Ben Amrany)

The Australian Dollar has continued to gain against some of the majors and notably has strengthened by another couple of cents in the last week against the pound. It was not long ago that GBP/AUD was over 1.90 and today has weakened to a low of 1.8273. This is a sizeable contraction in the space of 6 weeks.  The markets are awaiting the release of the RBA minutes to see what their stance is on future interest rate policy. Recently they stated that they will not be cutting interest rates further and this has lent support to the AUD against the pound causing the strength.

If you are looking at buying or selling the Aussie against the pound there are numerous releases here in the UK on Wednesday which could cause the rate to go one way or the other.

UK Unemployment figures

Currently sitting at 7.2% the markets have been eagerly watching this release ever since the BoE Governor Mark Carney stated that once unemployment falls below 7% they would consider hiking interest rates. Last month was the first month that the figure came out worse than expected. If we see the rate head back down towards the 7% level then this could cause a spike as the debate about interest rate hike will come into force once again.

Bank of England MPC Minutes

This release gives us an indication on what way members of the MPC voted on interest rates and QE from the decision two weeks ago. It is always very interesting to see how many members have voted for a rate hike or for it to stay the same. Recently all members have voted for interest rates to stay at the same 5 year low of 0.5%. Should just one member vote for a rate hike then again this could give the pound a slight boost and if economic data continues to be positive this will be one to watch over the next few months.

UK Budget

Always very hard to predict how this will affect the pound. Chancellor George Osborne will no doubt confirm how all the recent austerity cuts have helped the economy to grow in the last year and give himself a big pat on the back. He will be aware as all of us are that the recovery is far from over. This could mean that he implements further cuts and tax hikes to continue to try and reduce the countries budget deficit.

If you are looking at buying or selling the pound in the run up to this extremely busy period you may be wise to look at your exchange in advance of Wednesday to limit your exposure to currency fluctuations.

I feel you will see GBP/AUD be fairly stable up until Wednesday and if you see a spike in the right direction my recommendations would be to capitalise and not take too much risk.

If you require an exchange then I can help you beat the rates of exchanges that your banks offer you by sometimes up to 4%. As well as offering a very personal service to give you the information needed to help you judge when you should do your exchange there are not many services out there like ours. If you wish to discuss your requirement in more detail feel free to call the number on this page and ask for myself  Ben Amrany. Alternatively you may email me at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/AUD Levels Continue to Fall (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates slipped below 1.84 on the exchange during Thursday’s trading, before a slight realignment. The AUD has made inroads against Sterling recently, moving away from the four year low. Despite this positive move I do not anticipate GBP/AUD rates falling below 1.80 unless there is a major shift in market sentiment, as the RBA are still keen to see the AUD lose further market value, with the hope that this will boost their flagging export industry.

Australian employment figures were released overnight and came in much better than expected, which gave the AUD a lift. However, it wasn’t all good news as data showed the price of Copper, which is often used as a benchmark as to future fortunes in China, had fallen to a four year low. This is likely to have a negative impact on the AUD, so today’s spike may not last for long.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Unemployment data without doubt the main one this week!

The GBPAUD rate has ticked up slightly presenting a good opportunity to buy the currency. This partly due to weaker AUD data of late and also the worrying data from China and other asian nations like Japan. The Australian economy relies heavily on strength in it’s regional partners’ economies. Any sign of worry or uncertainty in these economies will cause the Aussie to weaken and this is what we have witnessed lately.

The expected decline in the currency is likely to manifest in the coming months as the economic data continues to disappoint. This week’s Unemployment data for Australia released overnight tonight really has the propensity to move the market. Last month it was these figures that triggered a bout of AUD weakness after the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) changed their policy stance to neutral.

If you need to sell Australian dollars moving sooner is wisest, should you be buying then your patience may be rewarded depending on the  performance of the currency you are selling. For more information on your particular forecast and to discuss the process of moving funds internationally please feel free to speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk