Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Brexit worries and risk adverse attitudes keep GBP/AUD below 1.70, will the Pound continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has remained below the 1.70 mark once again today, as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the Pounds value.

Markets have been quiet today anyway as many wait in anticipation for this evenings first US Presidential debate which is bound to be a talking point tomorrow and I wouldn’t rule out it’s effects within foreign exchange markets.

As markets await this evening there has been a lack of risk appetite and risk taking within markets as daily trading ranges are thin, and commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar have weakened off slightly.

Today’s slight weakening of the Aussie Dollar is in contrast with last week, as the Aussie Dollar quietly gained throughout the week and ended up being one of the weeks best performers. Attention was off the currency last week as a number of other major economies were under the spotlight as the US Fed, Bank of Japan and RBNZ all made interest rate decisions, and whilst this was going on AUD quietly outperformed which is why we are looking at a mid-market level below 1.70.

There is a lot of downward pressure on the Pound at the moment as negative sentiment surrounds the UK economy.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Buying Australian Dollar rates undercut once more from Friday speculation (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD rates of exchange suffered heavily on Friday afternoon, with the day’s anticipated speculation habits hurting not just Australian Dollar buyers, but anyone hoping to buy property or move capital abroad holding Sterling.

Each Friday, as my articles on this website have extensively covered since the Leave vote, profit-taking serious undermines the value of the Pound.

High street traders must choose a stable currency to allocate their profits from the week into whilst they are away from their desks. With the uncertainty and question marks over the direction of the UK economy, the Pound is understandly near the bottom of this list. The mass sell-off which ensues on Friday’s like clockwork sees the foundations of the Pound steadily chipped away.

However, the slide for Australian Dollar buyers was more exaggerated than others for one key reason – the change in leadership of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Philip Lowe has taken over from Glenn Stevens who had been at the helm of the Australian economy since 2012. With Lowe being his second in command for most of this time, it was expected that his trigger happy attitude to monetary stimulus and easing would be continued – particularly with Australia still suffering with low inflation and an abnormally strong AUD.

However, he has surprisingly changed his tune. His initial speeches have immediately dismissed the potential for another interest rate cut in the short term and instead pointed out strong forecasts for the Australian economy to improve its inflation levels without intervention.

Whilst longer term expectations are that he is still expected to act, Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term have already felt and may continue to feel the sting of the new face of Australian financial policy, who seems bent on making a mark early.

He will be speaking first thing tomorrow morning in Australia, but he will find it hard to shock markets further. Instead I am expecting a short-term improvement on buying Australian Dollar rates given that Mondays see some reversal on Friday’s trading patterns with the sold-off Pounds readily soaked up.

Given the heavily exaggerated sensitivity of the markets in the post-Brexit vote landscape, a premium is set on being able to move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge.

There are a number of options open to Australian Dollar buyers to make sure you are not ‘last to the party’ in these situations. I recommend that if you have a short to medium term requirement on GBP/AUD you should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk whilst markets are closed over the weekend to discuss a how best to maximise your currency return.

As a point of not I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency requirement later in the year.

Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact if you are planning a move back to the UK later in the year.

You can also fill out the form below, and I will be in contact as soon as I am able.

When will GBPAUD rates recover?

GBPAUD rates have slipped from the highs recently seen to now below 1.70 as predicted here earlier this week. Many clients I spoke to this week questioning when to move on their Australian dollar purchase have thanked me for the help to move sooner. Whilst the rate is flirting with 1.70 we might yet see some further improvements for AUD buyers but a steady decline in the value of the pound seems likely whilst so much political uncertainty clouds the UK. If you have a currency transfer to consider involving the pound and Australian dollar then making some plans sooner rather than later seems to me very sensible in the current market.

The projections on the currency were dealt some light this week with the new appointment of a new Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe. He seemed fairly positive in his commentary around the state of the economy suggesting that the falls in mining and commodity industries in the Australian economy may have bottomed out and that the future might not be so bad. He suggested that the split between raising or lowering rates was 50 to 50. This means there could be a fairly choppy move forward on the AUD as investors scramble to make sense of any plans.

If you have a transfer to consider involving buying the pound or Australian dollar then making some plans in such a clearly uncertain market is sensible! I am Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest privately owned currency brokerages with close to ten years experience looking after and managing both private clients and business clients foreign exchange transfers. Now is the right time to be looking to make a plan if you have a currency transfer pending, for more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Looming US interest rate decision undermining buying Australian Dollar rates (Joshua Privett)

The sentiment surround the upcoming US interest rate decision has changed dramatically in recent weeks, and with this coming at the same time as sudden hints about a further interest rate cut in the UK, the value of the Pound, and therefore buying Australian Dollar rates, are moving and sliding much more heavily than normal.

Whilst not providing a direct impact on views of the Australian or UK economies, the US interest rate decision is a massive event and causes extensive ripples to pervade through the financial world, with currency seeing the largest effects.

Heavy hints made by the Bank of England on Thursday that they may be a further interest rate cut in the UK to manage the fallout from the Brexit below the current record low of 0.25% stunned markets, and led to the surprise sell-off of Sterling which resulted in the sudden fall away from 1.76 to the lower 1.70’s visible today.

The anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the US vote is set to exaggerate this.

The US raised their rates last December to 0.5%, and after months of waiting, pressure is mounting on the FED to raise rates further to 0.75%. Should this happen the Pound will look even less desirable by comparison to the likes of the US Dollar and even the Australian Dollar, which still enjoys 1.5% interest rates on those holding the currency.

Consensus on the market is split. Whilst recent US economic performance data supports the move, the state of the global economy and the lack of certainty on future US direction with a looming election has most banks betting that a hike will wait potentially until the December meeting. The only major banks publicly stating a hike to 0.75% will occur are Barclay and BNP Paribas.

The news does not come out until 7pm UK time so Australian Dollar buyers and sellers still have plenty of time to plan a course of action which will either see any opportunities presented maximised to their full potential on GBP/AUD, or to safeguard an upcoming transfer from the potentially adverse movements which may occur depending on your risk appetite.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a GBP/AUD requirement should contact me to discuss the options open to you to achieve either of the above, and approach what could prove to be one of the most volatile days on the market safely. You can call email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will be able to respond within 15 minutes, or you can fill out the form below.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere so a brief conversation surrounding your upcoming transfer, alongside the potential for serious exchange rate movements today could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I will also point out to new readers of my articles that rates of exchange can be fixed in place as they are today in order to ‘pre-book’ your Australian Dollars or Pounds for a future purchase.

The Pound loses further ground against the Aussie Dollar, with further falls a possibility (Joseph Wright)

The GBP/AUD exchange rate has dropped back below the 1.7500 mark today we’ve seen the Pound sold off across the board.

After hitting it’s best levels for some time just yesterday we’ve seen quite a steep sell-off during today’s trading session, and this has been triggered by what I would imagine to be profit taking as is quite usual on a Friday afternoon within the UK. There hasn’t been any UK specific data released to prompt today’s sell-off so I’d imagine that profit taking is behind it.

As a currency broker for one of the UK’s largest specialist currency brokers I have felt a decline in positive sentiment towards the Pound over the past week or so, as the hard data out of the UK hasn’t fallen in line with the recent business surveys (Purchasing Managers Index surveys), in the sense that the surveys were particularity bullish whereas the hard data released has disappointed and this has been reflected within currency markets as we’re seeing the Pound fall against a basket of major currencies after rising off the back of the surveys.

The Aussie Dollar has been under some pressure of its own as like with the Canadian and New Zealand Dollar, the commodity currencies price movement will be determined by whether the US raise Interest Rates. If rates increase in the US I along with many economists am expecting a fall in the Aussie Dollar, so Aussie Dollar sellers should be aware of this relationship between the two.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Pound to Australian Dollar rate drops after markets are disappointed with today’s UK data releases (Joseph Wright)

Investors have adopted a bearish tone towards the Pound over the past few trading sessions, as not even poor employment data out of Australia could push the GBP/AUD upward over the days session.

Sterling had got off to a good start after Aussie Dollar weakness due to the news release down under early this morning, but it’s since dropped by almost 2 cents as Tuesdays weak Inflation data is continuing to weigh on the Pounds value.

Personally, I think that anyone with a currency requirement involving the Pound should be aware of the negative effects of Tuesdays figure on sentiment towards the UK economy and therefore, the Pound. Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index and the CPI figure came out below economists expectations and this has dampened any remnants of positive sentiment towards the UK economy at present.

Today the UK released some better than expected Retail Sales Figures, yet despite beating economists expectations the Pound has still struggled to gain any positive momentum and I think this is an indication of the health of the Pound at the moment.

I expect the Pound to fall once again as there is still room for for profit taking after it’s upward movement from the low 1.70’s over the recent months since the Brexit vote. At the same time either the Bank of England or the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut interest rates once again so anyone with a currency requirement involving both currencies should be aware of this.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

 

 

 

Buying Australian Dollar rates primed for significant movement within the next 24 hours (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar rates will be affected by news on both sides of the world between this evening and late afternoon tomorrow in the UK.

To get us started this evening, Australian employment data will be released which is notoriously difficult to second guess. Just last month the increase in new jobs added to the economy doubled from what had been anticipated. Due to the relatively small size of the Australian population even a small difference between expectation and reality when these figures are released can make a striking difference in the price of the Australian Dollar.

I won’t try to second guess this news, but given that it will be the first time in 8 months that market expectations have been exceeded for two months consecutively, and given that the high tourist season still has not started yet, I think it unlikely that very positive news will be harming Australian Dollar buyers overnight.

Following this, the most important event of the month for anyone holding Sterling will be taking place, which is the Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement, interest rate decision and subsequent press conference.

No-one is expecting another rate cut. The questions to be answered are whether the Bank will need to up their current program of stimulus, and what their current outlook for the UK economy looks like.

In this instance some heavy indications have already been given. Mark Carney, the Governor of the BOE, gave a deposition to Parliament last week. Far from the standard grilling by MP’s, Carney was very casually able to list out surveys and data sets which point to the impressive impact the BOE’s initial intervention to protect the UK economy has had already on its ability to weather the storm of the Brexit.

We have seen the largest increase in business confidence from a single month in over 25 years in the manufacturing, construction and service sectors of the UK economy. Today’s stable employment data also suggests their is no heavy deterioration in economic activity in the short-term following the Leave vote.

The news will be coming out at midday tomorrow and will continue to impact rates well into the afternoon as the Q+A session with Mark Carney and other members covers multiple areas of the UK economy. The value of the Pound against the Australian Dollar will swing depending upon the positive and negative nature of each of these aspects.

The Pound is falling slightly on the markets ahead of the event as investors are simply relieving themselves of risk ahead of a potentially major market mover. But the indications and murmurings are in favour of those looking to buy Australian Dollars once the dust settles, so would could see a sharp and positive movement tomorrow for GBP/AUD as a short-term forecast.

With significant and prolonged events like this a premium is put on being able to move quickly and being informed of any sudden changes. With so many global investors interested in the outcome, opportunities may be around for only a few moments. During such times I offer a very proactive service to keep my customers informed of any opportunities immediately, and if you have a desired rate of exchange you are aiming for, then there are options to make sure such opportunities are seized instantaneously.

You can contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to safeguard your transfer and to maximise your potential currency return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and given that the average difference between the high and the low each day on GBP/AUD is 1.4 cents, a well timed transfer could theoretically save you thousands on your purchase.

You can also contact me on the form below and I will respond to you as soon as I am available. Australian Dollar sellers can also get in contact for an immediate quote, or if your requirement is slightly longer term, we can discuss the potential opportunities further down the line.

 

 

Will GBP/AUD Rates Hit 1.80? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has continued to gain value against the AUD over the past few days, with the pair moving through 1.75 on the exchange towards the end of last week. This positive trend has continued over the start of the trading week, with the pair now trading around 1.77. This has provided those clients holding the Pound with further good news following weeks of negative downturns and some of the best trading levels of the past two months.

Clients will now be questioning whether we will see 1.80 sooner rather than later and much will depend on whether we see positive UK inflation data this morning and the official UK Unemployment rate tomorrow. Both of these will hold significant weight with investors and as such any clients with a GBP or AUD requirement should be keeping a close eye on these releases. If inflation figures come in as expected or above then we could see the Pound rally again, although whether this will be enough to push GBP/AUD through 1.80 is questionable. Personally I feel that this is likely to be a key resistance level, so it will take further positive momentum for the Pound to sustainably move above this threshold.

Looking ahead and with tomorrow’s unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, expect additional volatility on GBP/AUD if the figure comes in outside of this remit. The markets focus will then turn to a host of employment data and the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bulletin overnight on Wednesday and then the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent minutes on Thursday. Both of these are key economic data releases and whilst I do not anticipate the BoE to cut rates again under current conditions, any indication in the subsequent minutes that a future cut is still on the cards is more than likely to cause Sterling weakness.

Despite the recent improvement I still feel that Sterling levels will be capped due to the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK economy and as such I would be looking to protect any short to medium term GBP/AUD positions. If clients are going to gamble on further strength, put in place a stop loss order so that you have a bottom line and don’t risk losing the gains made over the past week.

 

Repeat weekend dip on buying Australian Dollar rates contrasts expectations for GBP/AUD rise next week (Joshua Privett)

Australian Dollar buyers have seen a frustrating and unavoidable repetition when it comes to Friday afternoons and the undermining effects this has on Sterling’s value.

Each Friday speculators at high street institutions must choose a stable currency with which to store their profits in for the weekend when they are not at their desks to manage their exposure.

The recent leave vote has meant that the Pound is not high on the list of stable currencies with which to store such profits. The sudden loss of demand for Sterling on Friday afternoon saw the characteristic dip on GBP/AUD to knock on the door of 1.74 once more after hitting 1.76 earlier in the afternoon.

However, expectations are still healthy for the Pound next week, to the benefit of Australian Dollar buyers.

Firstly, the characteristic losses on GBP/AUD are normally recouperated in some form of another by Monday morning. Markets re-open to normal activity, and the readily available supply of suddenly cheaper Pounds are eaten up and its value rises with its renewed demand.

Secondly, Tuesday is expected to bring some positive news for the UK with the second succesive month of improved inflation expectations after almost 15 months of consecutively concerning news. This is attributed to the benefits of the holiday season, a cheaper Pound, and a slight rise in oil prices.

Thursday may also show an improvement with the BOE press conference with Australian Dollar buyers hoping that Mark Carney, the Governor the Bank of England, repeats the positive sentiments about the UK economy which he mentionned during last weeks deposition made to the UK Parliament.

However, nothing is guaranteed. The wildcard this week will be Wednesday with UK employment data, the first real look at how net employment has changed since the leave vote. Whilst the number of employed is expected to rise, it is not expected to be dramatic – again lending to the narrative that it is not all doom and gloom post-Brexit. The unknown factor is that we could be surprised with these forecasts.

The positive feature for AUD buyers is that there is little data coming out from Australia this week, meaning that the narrative on GBP/AUD won’t be challenged by much positive news which is easy to find currently from the Australian economy.

But with a plethora of data coming out from the UK side this week there is potential for surprises. If you have a planned Australian Dollar purchase and you want to take advantage of the expected movements this week, I recommend contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to have a discussion about the options open to you in order to approach this volatile market safely with the aim of maximising your currency return.

AUD sellers may wish to move with immediacy as markets open on Monday morning, and you can contact me via email or with the form below. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.

Buying Australian Dollar rates suffer as the Pound’s rally is tempered (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has come under further pressure once more today with the revelation that the positive surveys at the beginning of the month have come into question, with some of the recent gains for buying Australian Dollars reversing as a result.

Markit, the company responsible for key business confidence surveys in the main sectors of the UK economy, provided three surveys to begin the month which painted the picture of an overwhelming recovery in the UK following the initial shock of the Referendum. The two main surveys of the three were from Directors in the Manufacturing and Service industries (which together constitute over 70% of UK GDP) of the UK economy showed the largest single monthly confidence increase in over 25 years.

This euphoria about the UK’s economic future has likely come from the beneficial effects expected for the competitiveness of UK exports which naturally occur from a cheaper Pound, and the benefits from the Bank of England’s massive stimulus package in the wake of the Brexit vote to boost the financial services sector.

The heavy rally on the Pound was therefore justified, and is why GBP/AUD rates of exchange reached close to 1.77 at its peak last week.

However, today a reality check was given to UK markets. Whilst surveys measure future confidence, the current state of affairs is still in relative turmoil. Actual growth figures for the manufacturing sector actually contracted to the tune of -0.2% in the most recent monthly assessment by the National Statistics released today.

Furthermore, growth estimates for the UK economy have come out for the June to August period, and only showed growth at 0.3% in this period. We can assume that most of this was before the Brexit vote at the end of June given that recent performance in other sectors shown above has been quite concerning.

By bringing the spotlight back to the present the Pound has suffered, presenting further opportunities for Australian Dollar sellers at the expense of buyers. 

Moving forward we have Australian and Chinese import and export data coming in overnight which will likely lengthen the recent rally for the Australian Dollar against the Pound given the improvement in China’s situation and the commodity marketplace as a whole. As such forecasts for Australia’s trade deficit is that it will decrease by $400m on this next reading.

Whilst this should present better opportunities for AUD sellers in the short-term, next week should see some respite for the Pound as the Bank of England’s monetary policy press conference should yield some very positive forecasts from the representatives at the helm of the UK economy. Many commentators are quite excited for the potential here for buying Australian Dollar rates to test some of the upper limits available last Friday for a few hours.

With a mixed bag expected surrounding the Australian Dollar over the next two weeks, I recommend that anyone with an upcoming requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to approach to currency markets safely during this period and ensure any opportunities which emerge are seized in a timely fashion rather than missed.

I have never had an issues beating the rates of exchange rates elsewhere, and given that the average difference on GBP/AUD rates each day is over 1.6 cents currently a brief conversation aimed a well timed exchange could save you thousands.

You can also fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as possible.

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