Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Australian Dollar making gains against the Pound – GBP/AUD falls (Joshua Privett)

Sterling’s sharp February slide is continuing almost unabated. GBP/AUD are still seeing the most positive buying levels for anyone holding Sterling compared to the likes of the Euro and the USD. The question is currently how long this will be the case?

It is not that rates are improving for Dollar buyers. It is that they are gradually winding downwards, rather than the sharp slides Sterling is seeing elsewhere.

There is still about 3-4 cents difference between the high on the low of the day for buying Australian Dollars, which shows just how volatile the current market truly is.

This does mean that despite a down market, daily opportunities can emerge in the meantime which is why a premium is currently put on the ability to move quickly if you are currently in the market with a GBP/AUD buying requirement.

The reason for the slide on Sterling’s value is rooted in the global slowdown which is becoming a mainstay of front-page news. Originally the effects were concentrated in the retail, industrial, and manufacturing sectors. However, due to recent global slides in the stock markets, this has now put a large weight on the UK’s financial service sector as well.

With financial services commonly known as the engine room of the British economy, this was the final straw for much of the confidence in Sterling on the currency markets, so the recent gradual decline has turned into a sharper fall.

The only reason GBP/AUD is not rapidly declining is that the main cause of the recent global slowdown is due to the worsening situation in China. This is causing the Australian Dollar to weaken alongside the Pound as a result Australia’s close trading ties with South East Asia.

Yet from the net losses recently on GBP/AUD, it is quite clearly Sterling which is weakening far more extensively.

As this global slowdown is not a short-term phenomenon I would be surprised if the magic 2.0 barrier was not tested later this month, many on smaller transfers are already buying well below 2.0 as a trading level.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Australian Dollars to buy in the coming weeks should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to discuss a strategy for your transfer and maximise your Australian Dollar return.

Limit orders are a popular option in a volatile market, whereby currency is bought automatically once a particular rate specified by you is reached, even if only for a few seconds, which avoids attractive rates being missed in a volatile market place.

Australian Dollar sellers can do the same, and I can outline the various options open to you which allow you to ride any of the expected favourable movements to their peak within the time period you have to complete your currency exchange.

 

 

Will GBP/AUD Rates Improve? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained fairly flat this week, with the pair continuing to float around 2.04 on the exchange. The Pound has found life extremely tough going of late and the reason we have seen rates fall away from the highs last year, has been attributed to a number of factors but what is clear in my mind, is that we are highly unlucky to see a recovery back to 2.10 in the short-term.

The UK is suffering due to a slowdown in our economic output, with a run of inconsistent data causing the Bank of England (BoE) to cut growth forecasts and this has sapped much of the momentum the Pound built up over previous months. Add to this our widening trade deficit (this means the cost of our imports far outweighs our income from exports) and it becomes easier to see why we are seeing a negative downturn for GBP.

In my opinion this all stems from the Pound’s strength last year, which made it extremely expensive for our trade partners to do business with us.  A knock on effect of this is that Manufacturing & Production levels have now fallen and the BoE are trying to react by artificially devaluing the Pound to boost this facet of our economy. This stance is not likely to change anytime soon and therefore I would be surprised to see a major recovery for Sterling under the current conditions. The saving grace for those clients holding GBP, is that the Australian economy is in an even more precarious state and the on-going economic problems in China (Australia’s largest tared partners) means that the losses haven’t been as severe for GBP compare to the other major currencies.

The bottom line is that I would simply not be gambling on the current market. With increased volatility likely to remain as we move through the first quarter, any small improvement for Sterling should be considered and if we were to see 2.05 become available again, I would be tempted to secure any short to medium-term positions.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Retail Sales (Daniel Johnson)

At 00.30am we will see the release of Australian Retail Sales figures, I think there may be slight improvement but not enough fo GBP/AUD to breach 2.00 and stay below. The 2.00 figure is extremely attractive to AUD sellers and we usually see a mass sell off if we move into the 1.99s. This causes GBP strengthen and we then move above 2.00 again. The 2.00 mark is definitely proving a hard resistance level to break.

We also have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy statement following on from Retail Sales. The Monetary Policy statement reviews economic and financial conditions and determines the appropriate stance for policy moving forward. It is a clear indication as to interest rate policy.

A drop in Aussie interest rates seems to be the only chance for significant Sterling rally.

If you would like a more in detail forecast for your individual currency requirement, taking into account time scale and edging. I will be happy to assit. Please do not hesitate to get in touch. I can guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. You can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

Sterling Showing Signs of Life Ahead of “Super Thursday” (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has shown signs of life this week, ahead of key day tomorrow for the UK being dubbed “Super Thursday” by investors. The Pound has made some gains against the major currencies and whilst we’ve seen a slight dip against the AUD, the general trend over the past couple of days has been positive for those clients holding Sterling.

GBP/AUD rates are once again floating around 2.04, having dropped perilously close to the 2 level last week. This was reassuring as it represents a key resistance level, which if broken, could have meant further losses for the Pound over the coming weeks. However, despite this realignment I am not expecting GBP/AUD to spike aggressively under the current conditions and if 2.05 were to become available again, I would be very tempted to secure any short-term positions. The on-going problems in China are certainly a negative for the Australian economy due to their trade links but this has now been factored into the current exchange rates, so any improvement there would likely boost the AUD.

Looking at the UK and we have certainly seen a downturn since the turn of the year, due to a poor run of data and a change in market perception. The Bank of England (BoE) now seem to have changed their stance and are keen to see the Pound lose value to boost our own trade links with the Eurozone and beyond. With current inflation levels a cause for concern I do not anticipate an interest rate hike anytime soon, news which has also softened market support for the Pound.

Tomorrow we have some key data release for the UK and I’m expecting a much clearer outlook for the short-term movement on Sterling rates following these. We have the latest BoE interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement, along with their Quarterly inflation report. We also have the BoE minutes, which should give us a key insight into the current thinking of our central bank, regarding the current economic climate and future monetary policy stances for the UK.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 01494 725 353 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD rates improve from poor trade data (Joshua Privett)

The recent news coming out of China has started to become telling on the Australain economy. The final tallies for December were tallied, and exports were found to have fallen by 5%.

But the results on the markets were subdued – GBP/AUD only rose by 1 cent, and similar gains were seen on EUR/AUD.

There are a couple of reasons for this.

Whilst exports fell the holiday period does tend to slow ouput, you only have to look at the Pound’s slide on the markets in January to notice that some element of this is common-place. So whilst the news is dissapointing, it is not isolated to Australia, nor as serious as it sounds.

The second piece of trade data which showed a fall in trade balance further into negative territory also gives a better understanding towards market mentality.

A negative trade balance shows that a country is importing more than it is exporting. In December, this fell from $-2.5bn to $-3.5bn in a single month.

First of all, it’s healthy that the economy can afford this. But this also highlights that the population in Australia explodes during the tourist season, and further goods are required to be brought in to sustain them. Which is why this piece of data is largely positive as it demonstrates the sheer size of the tourist industry and how it is currently performing.

So a mixed bag for the Australain Dollar overnight, but overall  a negative effect. China is still a pervasive worry, and the real question is whether in March this will translate into the rate cut some are worrying about?

With the current volatility in the markets, it is not uncommon to see a difference between the high and the low each day of up to 4 Cents, so a premium is put on being able to move quickly once a rate you are happy with becomes available.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar requirement should contact me on +44 1494 787 478 and ask the reception to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australain Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed for a future transfer in order to have certainty about what your purchase may have costed you. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Australia set to release latest trade numbers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In the early hours of tomorrow morning Australia are set to release their latest Export, Import and Balance numbers. With the data releases set to be announced as a mixed bag its difficult to predict where GBPAUD will be tomorrow morning however I wouldn’t be surprised to see the positives outweigh the negatives and sterling make gains against the dollar. However later in the week the UK are set to release their latest interest rate decision. If Mark Carney continues to take a dovish stance I expect GBPAUD could drop back to the 2 level or even below 2 and back into the 1.90s.

If you are buying or selling Australian Dollars this week, month or year I would recommend getting in touch to put a strategy in place to maximise your trade. In order to protect you against market fluctuations we have different contract options available that will meet your needs and requirements. Therefore if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you want further information in regards to a specific currency pair that I have not covered (AUD/USD, AUD/EUR, etc) then feel free to email me with the currency pair and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

 

 

GBP/AUD buying rates end the day on a high (Joshua Privett)

Sterling finished yesterday’s trading down against all major currencies ahead of the first look of growth figures for the UK economy during the final quarter of 2015.

This was by far the most testing period of the year for the UK economy, due to the first bout of global uncertainty in the financial sector caused by ‘Black Monday’ in China, as well as the more serious hindrances caused by the flooding in the North, West, and most recently the South-East of the country.

This is why Sterling was beginning the weaken ahead of the announcement this morning as markets were worried that the results could be even worse than first anticipated.

Whilst the figures came in poorly, the drastic falls the currency markets were concerned about never manifested. Sterling regained some of its losses from the day before which has allowed GBP/AUD to improve.

Next week will see the start of a new month and the first look at how both the UK and AUD have performed in January.

With the flooding having continued into the start of 2015, it seems like anyone looking to buy AUD will need some form of weakness in the Australian economy in order to see rates improve in their favour.

This is possible but unlikely. Whilst commodity markets were hit last month, most of the orders for January would have been paid for ahead of time. We’ll have a delayed fuse on that hurting the Australian economy for a couple of months at least.

Furthermore, high tourist season tends to keep the Australian Dollar in good stead as spending activity is high – which was shown in the positive inflation figures produced by the Australia (in stark contrast to the UK who are currently experiencing the worst inflation levels since records began).

Though incredibly volatile there has been an overall negative trend established since the end of December for GBP/AUD exchange rates, and as the above describes, the overriding factors accounting for this have not faded away.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Australian Dollars to buy in the coming months should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current rates whilst the interbank level is still above 2.0 can be fixed to avoid any harmful movements affecting your future transfer. 01494 787 478

GBP/AUD sees slight rebound after difficult week for Australian Dollar buyers (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD rates of exchange have been testing the very low 2.0’s last week until Australain Dollar buyers were gifted with some positive news to end the almast unabated string of negative headlines.

The new piece of information that AUD buyers can be thankful for is the fantastic decrease in Public Sector Net Borrowing figures released on Friday.

Sterling had a very bad image on the markets when public sector net borrowing figures came in at about £12bn in December. Combined with the effects of the flooding on the public purse, Sterling seemed like a currency weighed down by a sudden outpour of debt at the end of last year.

Yet in January, this borrowing figure had almost halved. It seems some tough choices were made at Downing Street and Sterling has recovered some of its recent losses.

However, the consensus is that their is still more risk than opportunity in the markets for Australain Dollar buyers.

Sterling’s severe negative slide since December – (down by 12 cents against the Euro, and 8 against the US Dollar) has been down to three major factors, all of which are still present and will continue to form an anchor on the value of the Pound:

  • Fears of a looming Brexit are creating a negative atmosphere around the Pound similar to what was seen for the Scottish Referendum in 2014.
  • Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, last week restated that we will not likely see any interest rate rises in the UK economy until 2017 
  • The effects of the flooding are not contained simply to infrastructure damage: economic output has already shown to have slowed in December, and when the figures for January are tallied and released in February, we can expect similar results.

By contrast, the recent shock news coming out of China has started to fall out of the headlines and global stockmarkets are starting to recovery once more. Now the Australian Dollar is beginning to enjoy its seasonally strong position as the Australain economy benefits from its high-tourist season.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Australain Dollars to buy should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australain Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for the Australian Dollar can be fixed with a small deposit to avoid any harmful movements against your favour making your purchase more expensive.

GBP/AUD Rates Slip Despite UK Unemployment Falling to 10 Year Low! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have dipped during Thursday’s trading, despite the official UK unemployment rate hitting a 10 year low yesterday. The Pound is coming under increasing pressure across the board and despite a run of inconsistent data, the drop has been quicker and more aggressive than I anticipated. GBP/AUD rates are trading over 15 cents lower than they were 6 months ago and this has come about despite the major problems facing the Chinese economy, Australia’s largest trade partners.

The official UK Unemployment rate came out yesterday at 5.1% and this represents a 10 year low. Usually this news, backed up by what we had assumed was a solid and progressive UK recovery, would have boosted Sterling’s levels, particularly when you consider Australia’s links to China and the likely negative effect this would have on the AUD. However, despite these problems the Pound is struggling to recover the ground its lost and I do not expect GBP/AUD rates to reach the highs we saw last year.

With little data of note out for Australia this week, the market focus has been on the UK and China. UK Retail Sales figures are released tomorrow and with these expected to show a major drop from previous, which if confirmed is likely to handicap any realignment for the Pound.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt. Alternatively, I can be reached directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD rates of exchange still volatile as the global markets panic (Joshua Privett)

We have bizarrely gotten used to seen 3 cent differences between the high and the low of GBP/AUD rates of exchange since the beginning of the month. 

A number of factors are contributing to this volatility, but one thing is clear is that both Sterling and the Australian Dollar are weakening. Gauging the best timing for your transfer now depends on which one is set to weaken the most.

Initially it seemed that the Australian Dollar itself was on the back-foot with very worrying global news emerging from China at the start of the year. Due to Australia’s reliance on China as a trading partner, regularly in the past poor news in that part of the world has translated into Dollar weakness.

The eventually knock-on effects in the stock-markets, however, which has been headline news daily as panic overwhelms the majority of investors, has now caused similar Sterling weakness due to the UK’s reliance on the financial service industry.

This explains the yo-yo effect and three-cent swings each day on the currency markets.

What will be the decided factor moving forward? Frankly, recent economic performance shows that there is more risk than opportunity in the markets at the moment for those looking to buy Australian Dollars using Sterling.

Australia is enjoying its seasonal strength for the summer months with fantastic employment figures and investment when the tourist season is at its peak (normally this lasts until March).

The UK, by contrast, is still facing an infrastructure bill from the recent flooding being measured in the hundreds of millions, and the dragging effects this has caused on economic activity. For example, last Monday retail sales figures were released for the UK for the month of December – far from the expected gains afforded by the holiday season, growth figures came it at a fifth of what was expected.

Obviously buying activity is being seriously inhibited, and we’re seeing similar results in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. As the flooding has continued into January, when the results for this months output are tallied and released in February, we’ll likely see similar pressure on the Pound’s value persist.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Australian Dollars to buy should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere and these current levels can be fixed to avoid any harmful movements affecting your transfer.