Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Will the Australian dollar rise or fall against the pound?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has improved lately as the pound finds some better form and the Australian softens every so slightly. In the most recent communications from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), we learned that the RBA are concerned over rising house prices. We also learned that the RBA view the currency as too strong and whilst only a few weeks ago the view was that the RBA might raise interest rates later this year, for now, the direction appears to me to be fairly neutral. If you are making a GBPAUD exchange in the coming weeks I believe a big factor will be the Article 50 direction for sterling. With plenty of volatility expected nothing should be too readily assumed!

GBPAUD hit 1.59 last week as the lack of interest rate hikes in the United States presented a weaker US dollar. As the US dollar was sold off it benefitted the Australian currency as the Aussie is used by investors to benefit from its higher interest rates. By ‘parking’ funds in Australian dollars, investors have a higher rate of interest and therefore earn more on their money. Such trends help the Australian to strengthen and this partly explains some of the overall strength of the Australian dollar against the pound.

I would expect GBPAUD rates could move as much as 11 cents between the high and the low as markets digest the release of Article 50. I forecast rates between 1.56 and 1.67 depending on how the market receives the news. Because this has never happened before the scope and potential for swings are high.

If you have a transfer involving buying or selling Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital. If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any transfers you may contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have worked for almost ten years assisting clients buying and selling Australian dollars for pounds and am positive I can offer some useful assistance with a really good exchange rate (above other companies) and some useful information to make an informed decision on when to buy your currency.

Terror attacks in the suspend current Pound to Australian Dollar trends (Joshua Privett)

Unfortunately I have had to write multiple posts over the years following attacks across the world and the effects this has on currency exchange rates, and this is now being treated at the time of writing this article, as a terrorist incident by the Metropolitan Police. The news has saddened and shocked us all, and there will always be knock-on effect in the currency markets which it is our duty to cover.

If you have not yet heard the news, there was an attack in Westminster, London, today and a live update feed can be found here.

The Pound had been enjoying a further rally against the Australian Dollar to begin the day, with a solid performance by Theresa May in Prime Ministers Questions in batting away arguments for a second Scottish Referendum. Markets were becoming confident in the setting to which Article 50 would be triggered next week.

However, the day took a devastating turn this afternoon, with the shock of a terror incident hitting currency markets fast. The traditional weakening of the currency attached to the victim country occurred across the board for the Pound, not just against the Australian Dollar, but we have since seen some recovery now that it seems not to be an ongoing attack.

As with previous attacks, Brussels and Germany to name but a few, currency markets appear to return to some degree of normality by the next day. Whilst the UK and the world will be digesting this for the days to come.

The next key development will actually be the interest rate decision in New Zealand overnight, which will show overall confidence in the region. This is expected to be fairly dovish given the recent hit to commodity prices which Australia and New Zealand depend on, as it seems likes some of the losses recorded for the Pound against the Dollar today can be recovered.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on  jjp@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Will GBPAUD have a sustained period in the 1.50s? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week for a period GBPAUD exchange broke the 1.60 barrier and fell into the 1.59s. The reason for the fall was an event not from Australia or the UK and actually from the US. The Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates Wednesday evening however Chairlady Janet Yellen gave a dovish speech shortly after which led to a surprisingly sell off of dollars and commodity currencies including the Australian dollar benefited.

However the gains for the Australian dollar vs sterling were short lived. Kristin Forbes surprised the currency market Thursday afternoon by voting in favour of raising interest rates.The fight back for the pound began and GBPAUD increased 2 cents.

In other news for the UK the Queen gave Theresa May Royal approval to trigger Article 50 and begin the negotiations of leaving the European Union. With Theresa May set to trigger Article 50 this week or next I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates fall into the 1.50s for a sustained period in the weeks to come. Therefore if you need to purchase Australian dollars short term trading sooner rather than later may be the best option. However the UK are set to release their latest inflation numbers Tuesday morning and the consensus is for the numbers to meet the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This could provide another spike in the market that Australian dollar buyers are looking for.

The major economic data release to look out for this week for the Australian dollar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes. The minutes are released two weeks after the actual interest rate decision and gives good indication to future Monetary Policy decisions. For more information on the release once we know more feel free to email me directly on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emmigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound recover from its multi-month low? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is currently trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since mid-January.

Whilst Pound Sterling has been losing value against most major currencies in recent weeks as the beginning of the Brexit looms, its losses against the Australian Dollar have been more profound as the Aussie Dollar has been going from strength to strength in recent weeks.

If the Australian economy continues to show signs of growth this year, it will break a new record in terms of successive growth and overtake the Netherlands existing record. Australia is only one month away from entering its 104th consecutive quarter of economic growth without a recession, and the Country also has one of the highest interest rates in the developed world so the demand for the currency is understandable.

Its also worth noting that commodity prices have been strengthening recently which is also a positive for the Aussie Dollar due to the Australian economies reliance on its export driven economy.

With so many positives for the Australian Dollar and the Brexit just around corner, I wouldn’t be surprised to see AUD continue to strengthen and I think GBP/AUD is more likely to dip below 1.60 than exceed 1.70.

One potential downside for the Aussie Dollar though is the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting Interest Rates in the hope of the Aussie weakening. If the currency becomes too strong it could weigh on the economy, and this will in the minds of the RBA when they consider interest rate decisions.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar dwindles from strong Australian growth (Joshua Privett)

Two surprise features have seen Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates slightly test recent lows once more, with the Aussie being given a severe leg-up against its competition.

Growth date for the Australian economy was the key market mover, coupled with news emerging from China.

Growth expected for the Dollar at 0.7% for Quarter four of last year was blown out of the water. Instead the Australian economy grew by 1.1% in a single quarter. The improvement may not sound incredible, but each 10th of a percent represents billions in revenue.This also assuaged fears from the previous month which showed a contraction for Australia of -0.5%. This now means that Australia is still recession free for 25 years, and markets have noticed.

The Dollar has been the largest winner on the currency markets today.This positive view of the Australian economy was given a further boost by positive Chinese business confidence data. Painting an optimistic picture for the size of the consumer market for Australia’s exports.

However, GBP/AUD has seen resistance levels at 1.60 multiple times since the Referendum, and this was showing once more today, with markets recovering as the afternoon wore on.

Commonly termed a resistance level, this is a psychological point where most traders will seek to consolidate their profits from a stronger Dollar by buying up a relatively cheaper Pound.

Given that the market has been here multiple times before without further progress, in my opinion we will likely see a repeat of previous performance where the losses on the Pound balance out, and could even recover.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will a high inflation reading tomorrow boost Sterling’s value? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has gained almost 1% against the Aussie Dollar so far during today’s trading session, as hopes of a high inflation figure tomorrow have boosted hopes of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England later in the year.

At 9.30am tomorrow morning I believe that there could be some volatility between Sterling and other major currency pairs, as the inflation readings for January will be released.

Inflation figures out of the UK are being closely watched by foreign exchange markets as over the past year there have been some sharp falls in Sterling’s value which can push up the inflation rate. Also the UK is close to embarking on it’s formal separation from the EU after voting for a ‘Brexit’, so all eyes are monitoring the UK’s economic performance due to the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy moving forward.

The annual inflation figure tomorrow is expected to show a reading of 1.9% which is up from the previous figure of 1.6%. If the actual reading comes out substantially above 1.9% I expect to see a boost in Sterling’s value as the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) will increase.

The Pound’s value is mostly driven by sentiment at the moment but inflation figures are likely to impact it’s value due to interest rate change expectations, especially as the BoE hasn’t hiked the UK base rate in around 10 years now.

There are other events which could also impact the Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate moving forward, and if you wish to be kept up to date regarding these do feel free to get in touch for further information.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Sterling holds on to it’s recent gains versus the Australia Dollar, will GBP/AUD approach 1.70 once again? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been climbing since Tuesday when the UK PM, Theresa May gave clarity to the UK Governments Brexit plans.

Uncertainty almost always weighs on the underlying currency in question and the Pound had felt the effects prior to her speech on Tuesday, but in it’s wake the Pound had one of it’s best days in years and gained against the US Dollar by it’s largest margin since 2008.

At the time of writing the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading around the 1.63 mark and I wouldn’t rule out a move above 1.65 if the positive sentiment surrounding the Pound continues.

It’s also important to note that today is the day of Trump’s inauguration in the US, and due to the potential impact of his Presidency right from the onset, I wouldn’t be surprised to see investors lose interest in risk-correlated currency such as AUD, and prefer to hold funds within safe haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen. Should this be the case it’s likely that the Aussie Dollar will suffer, which could aide the GBP/AUD pair and push it above 1.65.

There are no major economic data releases today out of the UK or Australia so I expect sentiment and Trump’s inauguration to drive the pair, and moving forward if you wish to be kept updated with key data releases feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Buying Australian Dollar rates recovering marginally following yesterday’s slides (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar exchange rates this week have been the biggest under-performer in the marketplace, with GBP/AUD exchange rates dripping down below the 1.65 point once more.

This was due to a combination of curve-balls that have left investors and analysts frustrated at the sheer number of variable impacting GBP/AUD rates of exchange.

Markets went into the week anticipating net gains for Sterling. Strong economic performance data was anticipated on Wednesday, which ended up exceeding expectations. Furthermore the expectation of an upcoming Supreme Court ruling favorable for the Pound on the financial markets should have provided a buoyant and supportive platform for Sterling exchange rates this week.

However, two unforeseeable events stole the spotlight.

Firstly Theresa May’s comments on a Sky news interview on Sunday, which the website has documented repeatedly, caused the air of cautious confidence surrounding the Pound to be violently replaced with anxiety. Hints at a harder Brexit were made, and financial markets rarely appreciate hefty changes to the status quo.

Secondly, GBP/AUD fell foul from the most recent scandal to come from President-Elect Trump’s camp. Serious allegations have been made about the campaign’s active association with Russia, and, as such confidence in the Dollar was justifiably shaken.

In these instances, investors seek high short-term returns elsewhere whilst the storm blows over. The high interest on the likes of the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar are just the ticket and is why GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD have had the most difficult week.

However, the excitement about the upcoming Supreme Court decision is still there…if now a little quieter. 

The lessons from this week for AUD buyers is that unsuspecting news at the moment, with the charged atmosphere in the run up to the triggering of Article 50, can be more hurtful for Sterling than helpful.

As such, expected opportunities should be seized to avoid the increasing risk as we edge closer to March. The Supreme Court ruling could come out any day from now so a premium will be put on being able to move quickly this week to avoid being last to the party on any improvement, which in this currently hypersensitive market may only be around for short while.

You can contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or by calling on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception team for me (Josh) to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximizing your currency return and protecting it from any sudden pitfalls, which can occur in this marketplace with little warning.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

 

GBP/AUD rate hits it’s lowest level in a month despite positive UK data releases, why is the Pound weakening? (Joseph Wright)

Yesterday saw the pound fall against almost all other major currency pairs, and this has happened despite some strong economic data releases out of the UK throughout the week.

Perhaps the most important economic release came out early yesterday morning, as the UK Services PMI figures showed that sentiment within the services sector of the UK improved through the month of December. This update is key as the services sector accounts for over two-thirds of the UK’s economic output so it’s important for the UK that the sector remains buoyant.

Moreover the PMI figures were released in the manufacturing and construction sector earlier in the week and despite those being positive also, the Pound has softened and yesterday hit it’s lowest level in a month of 1.6821 at the mid-market level, after beginning the week at 1.7128.

The reason behind the weakening of the pound this week can be put down to Brexit jitters, as investors await the outcome of the supreme courts ruling on whether the UK government requires parliamentary approval in order to begin the Brexit process.

I’m expecting to see the Pound fall in value further if the government is successful in their appeal and allowed to begin the Brexit within the next few months, without the need to consult parliament. The outcome of the Supreme Courts decision is due between the 12th and the 17th of this month so anyone planning a currency conversion between GBP and AUD should pay close attention to this key topic, as it’s likely to have an impact on the pair.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Buying Australian Dollar rates relatively stagnant ahead of US interest rate decision (Joshua Privett)

Buying Australian Dollar rates have remained relatively stable following a sudden reversal in some of the Pound’s recent gains on Wednesday of this week.

The Pound has been pressurized once more this week however, with a live court case in the Supreme Court as the Government appeals the decision of the Judicial Court in November, with uncertainty over the direction of the Brexit weighing heavily on the Pound once more.

The frenzy of investors flowing into Sterling was the result of the previous Judicial decision which meant Government had to consult Parliament through the Brexit process. This jump in Sterling’s value due to increased demand was attributed to the high expectation that Parliament’s involvement in the process itself would yield a longer time-frame for the UK to enact a Brexit, alongside the likelihood that MP’s would push to retain closer economic ties with the EU.

This renewed uncertainty is what has caused Sterling to lose some of its recent strength.

Moving forward the US interest rate decision on Wednesday next week will likely provide a further boon for AUD buyers.

The Australian Dollar enjoys hefty demand due to the high level of interest available compared to other major currencies. Currently this stacks up at 1.5% compared to 0.25% in the UK and 0.5% in the US for example.

However, the US, following a succession of staggering performance figures released in their economy in recent months, despite the uncertainty surrounding their recent election, it seems likely that the US will be raising theirs next Wednesday to 0.75% barring any surprises.

The expectation is that if a stable currency is offering 0.75% interest, compared to an unstable Australian Dollar which yields 1.5%, then many investors will choose to leave the Australian Dollar and opt instead to secure US Dollars, with the AUD becoming cheaper with any mass sell off which ensues.

In the medium term however, the Pound is expected to take what could be quite a serious hammering due to speculative profit taking by high street traders which is set to take place in the latter part of December. Thus Australian Dollar buyers may see a ‘sweet spot’ emerging on GBP/AUD over the next week or so.

In these instances it is best to be in a position to move fairly quickly in case any tempting opportunities emerge, and the well informed purchaser will certainly have an advantage to avoid being ‘last to the party’ and being forced to accept a rate of exchange below any premium which is reached.

I am in a position to offer a proactive service to help my customers in timing their transfers, particularly during these volatile periods, in order to secure desirable exchange rates. I work for one of the UK’s leading brokerages with the average tenure of our dealer’s being in excess of 8 years in this job – longer than most companies in their entirety – so I am ideally placed to secure the most competitive rates and have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere for GBP/AUD. Simply contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond as soon as I am able.

Similarly if you are looking to be buying Sterling, as my article points out there are likely to be further opportunities for you later in the month with a cheaper Pound, so you can contact me to discuss the options open to you to monitor the markets and secure a desired exchange rate.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.