Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

GBP/AUD to deliver volatile beginning to May (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD rates saw a very sudden and unexpected turnaround last week following the revelation of deflation in the Australian economy.

Prior to this, buying Australian Dollar rates have been seeing a very gradual and medium-term decline since the beginning of the year.

The reasons why are rarely as visible to markets as they have been in this instance, which is why GBP/AUD has not seen a significant turnaround until now.

Politically the UK has made the Pound an unattractive prospect for months, with a looming Referendum continuing to make investors turn their nose up at a Pound which is likely to continue losing value in the run-up to June.

Economically the UK has also posted very underwhelming performance figures. Growth is down by a third compared to the final quarter of 2015, whilst Australia has been enjoying the benefits of a record tourist season, a stabilising China, and a rebound in the commodities market.

This sudden turnaround in GBP/AUD frankly, given the above disparity between the recent performance of the UK and Australian economies, does seem to be an overreaction from the marketplace. Particularly given that globally economies are having issues with deflation, it is almost a universal problem.

The likely reason for this market overreaction can be found in the announcement of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday, which has markets nervous.

Mentions of cuts have been thrown around half-heartedly, but with this new announcement of deflation, financial markets may be concerned about intervention to protect the economy. Cuts normally result in the loss of value for a currency, which explains the rise on GBP/AUD buying rates last week.

I do not expect a cut to take place. This is something that Glenn Stevens (Reserve Bank of Australia Governor) has been discussing periodically for over a year. He didn’t deploy this at the height of the problems over in China which were causing much more serious concerns for the Australian economy in August last year or January at the beginning of this year, and this makes it unlikely he will revert to such extreme measures now.

Frankly, the drop in prices can be explained largely due to the dialling down of the tourist season. But even if Stevens was worried, his previous behaviour has shown he is unlikely to act on impulse, and will almost surely wait to the following meeting of the RBA in June before seriously considering any cuts.

With the above in mind, this recent rise on GBP/AUD exchange rates should be seen as a gift for Australian Dollar buyers. Particularly since rates were close to the 1.70’s just last week than the 1.90’s.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk over the weekend whilst markets are closed to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return.

Despite the lack of conviction for a cut, the opening of trading next will still present a nervous market with plenty of volatility, and therefore opportunity.

There are a number of options available through a currency exchange specialist which allow you to secure any peaks which occur immediately, to avoid missing out on these potential opportunities whilst you are otherwise engaged.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation about your options could save you thousands on your transfer.

Australian Dollar sellers can do the same, and I can how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to their peak within the time period you have to complete your transfer.

Buying Australian Dollar rates see serious spike (Joshua Privett)

GBP/AUD rates moved back above 1.90 overnight following incredibly low inflation figures for the Australian Economy. Buying rates for Australian Dollars are now at 6 week highs following what had been a sustained negative run on GBP/AUD since the start of February.

Waking up to the news and saying this was a surprise is an understatement.

Inflation rates are a key indicator to the health of an economy and current spending activity, and these are largely used to inform interest rate decisions by the likes of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The potential for a cut in rates has been on the cards for a while, but for more than 10 months this is something which was talked about but never acted on. When markets saw that inflation levels turned negative for the first time this year at -0.2%, rather than the stable 0.3% expected, this caused concern that this may be revisited once more.

However, I feel that markets have overreacted heavily to the news.

Similar to the UK who recently had an improvement in inflation due to an early Easter creating increased prices for air fares (skewing the data released in a more positive direction), with the Australian economy winding down from the high tourist season this is likely the same reasoning behind this sudden fall.

The Australian economy has been performing very well in most other areas which are reflective of a more stable trading partner in China and a boost to the commodity markets from their absolute lows in February.

Frankly, buying rates for Australian Dollars would have improved even further if the news about the UK’s poor growth in the first few months of this year hadn’t balanced out the weakening effect on the Australian Dollar throughout the day.

Rates were already starting to trickle down from their highs as trading continued into the afternoon, and with the Referendum coming into greater focus in May, Australian Dollar buyers may be wise to seize these recent gains, bearing in mind that as GBP/AUD rates were touching on the 1.7’s a very short time ago.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in the wake of this sudden turnaround to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Australian Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require your Australian Dollars for a few months this current gift on the currency markets can actually be fixed in place ahead of any future transfers, to avoid the expected falls as we edge closer to the Referendum.

I will reply personally following the opening of markets tomorrow morning detailing what the expected trends are for the day and whether any peaks may still be expected. Simply detail your requirement, and the best number to reach you on, and we can have a brief conversation in the morning which could save you thousands of Pounds.

Australian Dollar sellers can do the same, and we can have a conversation about how this recent movement has effected any short term plans you may have and how these can be managed.

GBP/AUD sees rise after Obama visit (Joshua Privett)

Today saw some serious gains for Australian Dollar buyers today, with GBP/AUD moving up by more than 3 cents from the absolute lows to begin today.

The thanks for this can be lain squarely at the feet of Barack Obam’s current and final visit to the UK, and the increased confidence brought to markets that the UK will be avoiding a potential Brexit.

Obama is more popular than the UK’s own PM in the UK surprisingly, and his presence and pleading for the UK to remain for the sake of the international community, is expected to result in further votes for the Remain camp.

Well, this is what the consensus currently is in the currency world and this is what caused the reaction on GBP/AUD rates of exchange.

Unfortunately for Australain Dollar buyers this is likely to be short-term fanfare rather than any true change in the current uncertainty surrounding the Referendum, and therefore on recent trends for buying AUD rates.

The most recent polls do suggest that the camps are still neck-and-neck, with the key fact that 12% of the population are still undecided to continue to feed market uncertainty and Pound sell-offs in the run-up to June.

Furthermore, the recent gains in Australian growth, the slight recovery in the commodity markets, and a more stable China will continue to feed Australian Dollar strength against the Pound which has been a constant factor since February.

The next piece of data will come out late on Monday which will likely paint the Australian Dollar in this positive light, and begin the continued negative trend on GBP/AUD.

With the current volatility on GBP/AUD, further opportunities may present themselves on Monday to be seized before the data releases emerge.

I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk directly over the weekend whilst markets are closed.

I can reply directly once markets open on Monday to discuss a strategy for your transfer based on the expected trends for the day which will be suggested to us from very early morning Asian trading. 

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. Simply email me with a brief description of your upcoming requirements over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on to discuss a strategy for your transfer that suits your needs, in order to mazximise your Australian Dollar return. Calling Australia is not an issue and I regularly do so following enquiries from my articles.

 

What effect will the EU Referendum have on my Trade?

Australia’s economy still appears to be standing strong despite a reduction in China’s growth. During the early hours was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision took place and there was no shock move as rates remained at the same level.We have seen a small spike for Sterling during today’s trading but I would not expect a significant rally.

The key factor in any trade involving Sterling at present is the EU referendum. Current polls suggest that those who wish to remain in the EU are in front with a 1% lead. Looking purely from an economic perspective, if the UK were to leave it will be catastrophic for the UK. Trade relations will be in tatters and I would expect GBP to fall against the Aussie by up to 30 cents. If we remain expect a smaller correction of around 15 cents. I think the media are going to be far more pro staying in the European Union as the referendum draws closer and when the votes come in I think the UK will remain in the EU. Would I bet my hard earned money on us remaining in however? Probably not, weighing up risk vs reward and the polls being so tight if I was an AUD buyer I may bite the bullet.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I will provide an individual strategy for your trade to try and maximise your return. I specialise in property transfers and I am in a position to beat high street bank’s exchange rates by as much as 5%. Please do get in touch for a free quote at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

If you would like to find out more about the company I work for feel free to visit our website at www.currencies.co.uk.

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We have been established for more than fifteen years and have helped over 35,000 clients.

RBA Minutes Released Overnight Could be Key! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained fairly flat of late, with the Pound struggling to realign following the heavy losses we’ve seen since the turn of the year. Personally I now feel that the Pound will struggle to break back through 1.90 in the short-term and the days of trading above 2 are now behind us for the foreseeable future, unless there is a major shift in market conditions.

There is a host of key economic data out this week, so we may well see additional volatility on the exchange. Any clients with a AUD requirement will be interested to see the market reaction to the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, which are released overnight in Australia. These will give investors a key insight into the relative health of the Australian economy and it could even provide us with an indication of future growth forecasts and economic predictions, which will be used as a benchmark by investors.

From the UK’s standpoint it is likely to be Tuesdays employment data, including the official unemployment rate and Wednesday’s Retail Sales figures, which are likely to be this week’s biggest market movers. Clients should watch out for any figures which come outside of their predictions, as this will cause the most amount of movement on the exchange, with retail Sales figures another key barometer of an economies wellbeing.

As mentioned the general trend of late has been Sterling weakness, and with the pair falling again last week many clients are now questioning whether the AUD will make a move under 1.80? Whilst I certainly feel the Pound will continue to struggle against a wave of market negativity stemming from the EU referendum in June and a possible Brexit, I am cautious when it comes to assuming that the AUD has enough behind it to really kick on. The Chinese economy is still fighting against a negative downturn and due to Australia’s heavy reliance on the export of their raw materials, they are heavily reliant on a booming Chinese economy. Further problems here could cause the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to act and cut interest rates again, a move that would surely cause the AUD to lose value. Therefore, I would be looking to take advantage of the huge spike we’ve seen since the turn of the year and not gamble on what is still a very fragile economy.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/AUD under further pressure as commodities rebound (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for the Australian Dollar, GBP/AUD, are perilously close to knocking on the door below 1.80 following another net week of slides on the currency markets.

Despite the Pound benefitting at the start of the week from the positive inflation data and increase in retail sales prompted from an early Easter, the net losses on GBP/AUD far exceeded any initial gains.

The Australian Dollar is enjoying heightened global demand which is bolstering its value for a number of reasons which outweigh any short-term positive news the UK can produce to bolster the Pound.

In terms of risk, the shoe is now firmly on the other foot. Last August the rally against the Australian Dollar began in earnest as worsening news out of China saw confidence in the Australian economy drop by association. Alongside a commodities market spiralling downwards, this allowed GBP/AUD to reach multi-year highs.

Now the opposite is true. Oil prices have shown signs of life and the future looks even brighter. The world’s major oil exporters are meeting in Qatar today to discuss freezing output to allow prices to naturally rise. China has shown a commitment to stability since January, and with the looming Referendum for the UK, it is now the Pound which is a gamble to invest in – causing Sterling holders to see their buying power fall.

Currency markets rarely enjoy changes to the status quo and businesses are already moving their capital out of the UK ahead of the Referendum. This is part of the reason which the Eurozone has attracted more capital investment from overseas in the first three months of this year compared to the entire year of 2015, which correlates to my experience as most of my current business customers have been moving their funds out of the UK rather than back into the Pound.

The silver lining for Australian Dollar buyers, which is not available for anyone with vested interests in the likes of the US Dollar and Euro, is the sheer volatility in GBP/AUD exchange rates.

With average movements of 2-3 Cents daily between the high and low, even a falling market can present a number of opportunties in a 24-hour period. Anyone considering moving funds for a property purchase or emigration to Australia can see a four to five figure difference in their return just based on these daily movements with a well-timed transfer.

As such I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

To take advantage of these daily movements, a popular option among my current customers is a ‘limit order’. This is an automatic buy order placed into the markets at a pre-determined level set by you which allows you to secure your currency immediately, even if that price is available only for a few moments (a regular occurence for GBP/AUD exchange rates).

This is in the market 24/7, and the level can be amended at any time, or taken out of the market at no cost.

If this order fills you do not necessarily have to buy all of your currency up-front, this can actually be bought on a ‘forward’ basis, which means the exchange rate you acheive can be fixed for up to a year for just a 10% deposit if you do not need your Australain Dollars until later in 2016, or if your full amount of funds are not available right now.

If you email me before markets open on Monday with a brief description of your requirement, and the best number to reach you on to discuss your options, we can have a plan of action in place before the serious market activity begins in the afternoon.

Australian Dollar sellers can do the same, and I can explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion within the time period you have to complete your transfer.

Australian Unemployment Figures could Boost GBP (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have remained fairly static this week, ahead of some key data for both the UK & Australia over the next 24 hours. The AUD has found support in line with Sterling’s struggles but with the on-going economic downturn in China having a negative effect on the global markets, in particular Australia, I do not expect GBP/AUD rates to head below 1.80 under current conditions. It may be that we get some data come outside expectations, which will then drive the market in one particular direction but as it stands I expect GBP/AUD to remain range-bound between 1.83-1.88 in the short-term.

Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on the export of raw materials, they are always susceptible to global slowdowns, perhaps more than most. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have indicated they would cut interest rates again if necessary and with the Pound likely to recover later this year, AUD sellers may have found the perfect opportunity to sell near a high. I do feel longer-term that the AUD will come under pressure due to their trade links to China and with the Brexit looming in June, we could see a recovery following this decision.

Looking ahead and we have a host of employment data out for Australia overnight, including the official unemployment rate which is meant to increase to 5.9%. If this prediction comes to fruition expect GBP/AUD rates to rise, ahead of the BoE interest rate decision and subsequent statements.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

How will a “Brexit” affect my Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday a stark warning as to the impact a “Brexit” will have on the UK economy. It was said If the UK are to exit the EU it “could do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships.” Current polls suggest those in favour of a  “Brexit” now lead the polls at 52% which is very worrying for the UK economy. George Osbourne also stated, stating “For the first time we are seeing the direct impact on our economy of the risks of leaving the EU. If the British economy is hit by the mere risk of leaving the EU, can you imagine the hit to people’s income and jobs if we did actually leave?”

The IMF has acut the UK economic growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.9%, the weakest forecasts for several years and one of the biggest cuts to any leading global economy.

Looking at the risk/reward factors involved with a GBP-AUD trade is key. If the UK were to remain in the EU I would expect GBP/AUD to rise by around 10 cents. However, if there was a “Brexit” I would expect a fall of over 25 cents and the chances of a quick recovery will be extremely slim. HSBC have predicted it could cause parity on GBP/EUR. The safe option I feel would would be to move before the referendum on 23rd June.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I specialise in property and commercial trades and I am in a position to beat high street banks exchange rates by as much as 5%. I will also provide an individual trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Please do get in touch for a free, no obligation quote by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog it is appreciated and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBPAUD exchange rates return to negative territory (Joseph Wright)

Although strengthening against the Euro as well as a number of other majors today, the Pound is once again in negative territory when paired with the Australian Dollar.

There are a number of differing opinions out there regarding the pair, and to make things even more complicated their relationship much depends on decisions made elsewhere in the world.

Since the turn of the year Sterling has fallen over 8%, and at present we’re seeing some of the lowest levels seen in 2016 making now the ideal time to convert Aussie Dollars into Sterling. We’re in this position for a number of reasons which I’ll try to explain briefly in the following paragraphs.

Firstly, commodity prices are in recovery mode, particularly those pertaining to Australia such as Oil and Iron Ore and this has benefited the Australian economy as operating profit levels would have previously taken a hit as commodity prices lost so much value. China picking up steam and attempting to spend it’s way out of recession has benefited the Aussie Dollar due to their close proximity. Cautious comments and a reduction in the planned 4 interest rate hikes to just 2 from the US Fed Reserve has played into the Aussie Dollar’s hands, as investors searching for high returns continue to hold money within Aussie denominated bank accounts and financial products to take advantage of the high interest rates.

The positivity for AUD has coincided with a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the UK as of course the upcoming EU referendum is weighing on the Pound’s value, whilst at the same time all sectors other than the much relied on service sector show signs of contracting. Being such an open economy the UK was already affected more than most by the global slowdown, but the uncertainty surrounding it’s political future has increased the downward pressure on the Pounds value.

Sterling has actually been boosted today as Inflation data has shown a monthly increase from 0.3% to 0.5%, and although GBP rates of exchange have improved generally across the board, even this has done little to help GBPAUD fight against the longer term downward trend.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving both GBP and AUD, it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

GBPAUD forecast this week (Dayle Littlejohn)

 

Since the start of the year GBPAUD has dropped over 20 cents making a AUD400,000 purchase £22,000 more expensive.

The Pound has been plummeted of late due to fears of the UK leaving the European Union and negative press coming from UK Prime Minister of late. The Australian dollar has also been benefiting from China’s spending spree.

Data releases this week

Tuesday is the latest inflation figures for the UK. I expect a slight rise consequently the Pound should make gains against the Australian Dollar.

Thursday morning Australia is set to release their latest Unemployment rate numbers. Unemployment rate dropped last month and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend continue and therefore the Australian Dollar strengthens.

The Bank of England also releases their latest Interest Rate decision Thursday. I expect the vote to be released at 9-0 and therefore the decision to be a non-event. Shortly after Governor Mark Carney will address the public and I believe he will discuss the potential risks of a ‘Brexit’ and therefore GBPAUD could fall.

For people buying Australian Dollars with sterling this week, it looks like earlier in the week (Monday/Tuesday) will provide the best exchange rates. Where as if you are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling trading after Thursday would be my strategy.

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you, I require, your name, brief description of requirement, amounts, your budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.