Tag Archives: GBP/AUD forecast

Will GBPAUD keep on rising?

The pound to Australia dollar rate has been moving higher on the back of the latest improving economic data for the UK and fresh fears over when the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will raise interest rates. We could see the Federal Reserve in the US raising rates which has been a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates. The strengthening of the US dollar has seen a weaker Australian dollar as they are closely linked.

Any weakening of the Australian dollar lately can be partly attributed to the scaling back of interest rate expectations for the Australian economy. Overall the predictions for the Australian economy had been very strong and this had seen the Aussie stronger. This has been scaled back recently with the Aussie weakening as the RBA scaled back their forecasts.

The US dollar is also a factor as it has been rising, it is looking more than likely that the US will raise their base rate which will see the US dollar stronger. As a higher yielding currency the Australian dollar has been very popular but now the US dollar is challenging its dominance. The market is now bracing itself for lower for longer Australian interest rates which is why the currency has weakened.

with sterling finding some support this trend could continue for longer, the conditions that have created it don’t appear quite ready to subside. For now it appears this market will favour Aussie buyers and any clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds might need some assistance with strategy.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Australian dollars then please don’t hesitate to let us know so that we can monitor the market and update you on the latest strategies to be aware of in trying to maximise your transfer. If you wish for more information please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar rate hits a 5-month high, will the upward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

Those following the GBP/AUD rate will be aware of the positive moves for the Pound recently, and within the past 24 hours the rate has hit a 5-month high making it a good time for Sterling sellers.

The rate has traded within just 2 and a half cents of the best levels in the last year, so the questions are now being asked as to whether the pair can reach a new 1-year high.

Those with a currency requirement involving the pair should be aware that the Pound isn’t trading in such a strong fashion against many other major currency pairs, and that in my opinion there is potential for the Pound to fall for a number of reasons.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May is currently under pressure as rumours build that there a a number of members of her party prepared to sign a vote of no-confidence regarding her position. Should this issue surface I would personally expect to see the Pound fall quite dramatically against the Aussie Dollar amongst other major currencies.

At the same time inflation hasn’t quite hit the high levels the Bank of England was expecting to see so the chances of future rate hikes have diminished somewhat, certainty regarding the short term future.

If you’re following the GBP/AUD rate and would like to be kept updated to any major swings in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPAUD break through 1.75 by the end of the year? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Economic data in recent weeks has meant that GBPAUD exchange rates have increased by 8 cents and broken through the 1.70 barrier. The reason for the improvement is positive news coming from the UK in regards to Brexit and a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Brexit negotiations are heating up and decisions are close to being made. Friday evening Michel Barnier gave a two week deadline for the UK to make key decisions surrounding EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the UK’s “divorce bill”.

The theory on the market is that if the UK and EU come to an agreement in the upcoming weeks and trade negotiations start before or just after the turn of the year, this could give sterling exchange rates a considerable boost.

The Reserve Bank of Australia have been given dovish statements of late and the recent RBA minutes last week confirmed that the RBA have no interest of raising interest rates anytime soon.

Couple this with Iron ore prices tumbling down under and some forecasters suggesting another substantial fall is on the horizon due to the slowdown in China’s construction industry you can understand why the Australian dollar is under pressure.

Looking further ahead if the Australian economy continues on the same path and the UK reach a deal with the EU so trade negotiations begin, I expect GBPAUD will break through 1.75.

Therefore if you are buying Australian dollars with sterling and are prepared to take the risk holding off may provide a better exchange rate in the weeks to come, however if you are selling Australian dollars to buy sterling now is the time to convert your currency.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.

UK economy growth is picking up, will GBP/AUD reach 1.75 again in the near-term future?

The Pound has picked up once again this afternoon after some better than expected economic data, this time in the form of GDP figures has boosted the markets.

This means that UK economic output in the months of July-September grew by 0.4% whereas it’s grown by 0.5% from August-October. This is of course positive news for the Pound and the Pound is now trading around the 1.7250 mark at the time of writing.

The highest the GBP/AUD rate has traded in the last year is 1.7650 so the rate is now within 4 cents of the best levels so it appears that the rate hike last week from the Bank of England has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

The think-tank that produced today’s GDP figures also believes that the Bank of England will have raised interest rates to 2% by 2021 which is a bit more bullish than the comments outlined by the BoE last week when rates were hiked, and I think that the Pound would climb quite considerably from its current levels should such a bullish monetary policy be adopted by the BoE.

The next busy day for economic data is Tuesday next week, so feel free to get in touch in the meantime if you would like to plan around this event, should you have any upcoming currency requirements.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPAUD crashes below 1.70 (Dayle Littlejohn)

At the end of last week the eagerly anticipated Bank of England interest rate decision provided a huge shock for clients buying Australian dollars. The Bank of England hiked interest rates to 0.5% and forecasters were predicting the pound would continue to climb against the Australian dollar and potential reach the mid 1.70s.

However as the hike was seen as ‘dovish’ because two of the members of the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold and growth forecasts for next year were cut, the pound plummeted against the Australian dollar. The next question is will the pound recover and break through 1.70 once more or have Australian dollars buyers missed their opportunity.

Inflation numbers down under remain under pressure which means the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will change their tune in regards to interest rates is unlikely. Therefore I expect the Australian dollar to remain under pressure.

Brexit headlines will continue to drive GBPAUD exchange rates. Negotiators have announced that there will be three more rounds before the turn of the year and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be hoping that stage 2 negotiations would have begun. If this is the case I expect the pound would have broken through the 1.70 barrier and actually progressed closer to 1.75. Therefore if I were selling Australian dollars to buy pounds I would take advantage of the recent movement and look to make the conversion sooner rather than later.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Sterling to Aussie Dollar rate plunges after BoE rate hike, what happened? (Joseph Wright)

This afternoon at lunchtime the Bank of England hiked interest rates by the expected 0.25 basis points, although in the immediate aftermath the Pound fell dramatically against every major currency pair.

At the time of writing the Pound to Aussie rate has fallen by 2% with the GBPAUD rate now sitting at 1.6917 and the AUDGBP rate sitting at 0.5910.

This afternoons move has come as a surprise to the markets, as usually when the base rate increases the underlying currency climbs. The opposite has happened today though as it appears that prior to the move by the Bank of England the hike was priced into the market, and the commentary afterwards was a bit more bearish than the Sterling bulls had hoped for.

It’s looking like there won’t be a particularly aggressive approach from the Bank of England regarding monetary policy moving forward, which is why we’ve seen the Pound lose so much value in such a short space of time.

There won’t be any further major economic announcements out of the UK tomorrow that are likely to move markets to such a great extent, although Australian Retail Sales data is coming out in the early hours of this morning which may impact the rates.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding any other short-term price movements between the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me. Moves such as today’s can result in large differences in a currency transfer outcome so being aware of these moves can be highly beneficial.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

 

Will the Pound to Australian Dollar rate manage to hold its ground above 1.70? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen against most currency pairs today, making the converting of Pounds into other foreign currencies such as the Aussie Dollar a less attractive prospect.

Since breaking back above 1.70 against the Aussie Dollar, which has been a key psychological level for GBP/AUD since the Brexit vote the Pound has managed to hold its ground above it despite some negative data coming out the UK today.

Sterling has been helped regarding the GBP/AUD pair by Aussie Dollar weakness, as some particularly poor retail sales figures from down under recently spooked the markets.

Today it was also retail sales figures that disappointed but this time it was the UK’s retail sales figures.

With Brexit talks forever in the financial headlines at the moment putting pressure on the Pound, along with disappointing data out of Australia recently it may be a battle of which currency is the weakest that determines where GBP/AUD goes next.

There are no more major economic data releases out of the UK this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment. With all that’s going on in the UK politically at the moment I there can always be a news release that swings GBP exchange rates, and if you wish to be updated if there are any big moves it’s certainly worth registering your interest with me.

Next week there will be releases that could impact the GBP/AUD rate further, so it’s worth getting in touch before the weekend if you wish to plan around any key times.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Busy day for GBP/AUD exchange rate, can we expect to see similar volatility moving forward? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has been trading in a volatile fashion today as a number of headlines have resulted in Sterling movement.

Although there is no major data set for release out of the UK this week, and there was little released today by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound move further as Brexit talks appear to be heating up.

This afternoon we saw the Pound sold off as it appeared that Brexit Secretary David Davis has a different opinion to his European counterparts regarding how Brexit negotiations are going. The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde today also threw her hat into the mix and stated that there needs to be more clarity regarding the Brexit, and that a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unimaginable.

The downward trend has since reversed for the Pound as in the last 30 minutes or so its been reported that Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit has stated that the EU could offer the UK a 2-year transition stay in the EU market after Brexit.

In a market like this its very difficult to judge which way the market will move, but working on a trading floor means that we’re able to react quickly to the sudden moves.

Today’s price movement has been over 1.25% which on large currency transfers can equate to a substantial amount of money, which is where timing your transfers can really make the difference.

There are no major announcements out of Australia either this week, so I expect the pair to continue to be driven by sentiment with today’s trading session being a clear example of how comments from significant personnel can move the markets.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

When will the RBA raise rates? (and how will this affect the pound to Aussie rate)

The pound to Australian dollar has become more comfortable above 1.70 lately but we are still having trouble sticking above it. My personal belief is that the pound to Australian dollar rate will rise higher through the 1.70’s as the lack of any interest rate cut down under, and the increased prospect of one in the UK, causes the rate to rise. I therefore think it could be many years before we see a rate hike in Australia and agree with some more recent commentators who state it will be 2019 not 2018 before we see the next hike.

The Australian dollar is already weaker as markets agree that any hike next year is less likely, the strength in growth and employment in the Australian economy is high but many question for how long it will last. With savings rates having dwindled in recent years Australians are having to save even more and this will impact consumer spending. The very strong housing market is a cause for concern but raising interest rates won’t necessarily help the boom, but it will make getting on the ladder even trickier for new home buyers and make mortgages more expensive.

Whilst I do not think the UK will raise rates as quick as many expect (some pencil in November) I do expected much increased rhetoric around the topic over the next couple of months and this could well send sterling higher. If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars this shift will not occur in a straight line, we will undoubtedly see a rather volatile path.

GBPAUD could easily rise to say 1.76 or 1.80 at the top end in the next two months before as UK rates expectations cool and the prospect of any Australian hikes become clearer, see the rate back into the lower 1.70’s or even sub 1.70 again.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds and wish to get some insight into market movements and strategy to maximise your currency exchange we can help with a personal service and excellent rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your situation.

Australian Dollar to Pound exchange rate drops as Australian GDP data disappoints, will there be a reversal of the AUD/GBP trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Australian Dollar has recently strengthened quite considerably against the Pound, although the trend has been reversed this morning after Australian GDP figures failed to impress the markets enough for the bullish run to continue.

During the second quarter of this year the Australian economy grew at a rate of 0.8% which was in line with what economists were expecting, and it appears that the Aussie Dollar will need some more positive data to come out in order for the currency to once again reach its post-Brexit vote highs.

The Pound has been coming under pressure in recent weeks after fears surrounding the final ‘Brexit Bill’ cost have surfaced, as well as uncertainty surrounding how the Brexit negotiations are going so far with some suggesting they have got off to a bad start.

Yesterday data out of the UK showed that the services sector within the UK has hit an 11-month low which is important sector for the UK due to it accounting for around 80% of the UK economy. Despite this negative news the Pound is still climbing against the Aussie Dollar which to me demonstrates that the Aussie Dollar bullish run is potentially coming to an end.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.