Tag Archives: GBPAUD rates

The impact of Brexit on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound has endured a difficult last 2 weeks with the GBPAUD exchange rate falling below 1.70 after comfortably trading above that level for a while.

The Pound has been blighted by what has been happening politically and with the Tories failing to form a majority government in the recent elections the uncertainty is causing issues for Sterling.

Indeed, we have still yet to form a majority government and when this happened last time it took 20 days before the Lib Dems and Tories formed the coalition.

Next week the focus will turn to what is happening with the Brexit issue which as we all know caused such a huge problem for the Pound against all major currencies including vs the Australian Dollar this time last year.

As yet the UK has not confirmed whether it will try and opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and as we are still not settled politically there is a lot of uncertainty in the market which is why I think we may see further losses for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar in the near future.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest set of minutes from its recent meeting and this is likely to have a small impact on GBPAUD rates but overall I think the Pound will be negatively affected by the Brexit negotiations. Therefore, if you need to send money to Australia it may be worth taking advantage of the current rates.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling currency and would like to save money then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate hits a new 2017 high as inflation data disappoints, will the trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has hit a new high against the Aussie Dollar today, as the pair have hit 1.7220 at one stage during today’s trading session.

The upward movement for the Pound begun early mostly due to Aussie Dollar weakness, as in the early hours of this morning the Australian inflation data came out worse than expected on both an annual and monthly basis albeit not drastically.

At the same time Sterling has performed well across the board during today’s trading session and at the time of writing the currency is up against all major currency pairs.

There has been talk of the Australian economy slowing in recent months, and with the US Fed Reserve now likely to continue to raise interest rates throughout the year I think the Aussie may end up trading quite considerably lower against the Pound as the year progresses. An increasing interest rate in the US could be bad news for the Australian Dollar as its likely that investors would rather hold their funds in the US due to the higher level of security it offers.

Limited demand for the Aussie Dollar is the reason I think we could see the GBP to AUD rate improve as the year goes on, but I do think that if the conservatives in the UK don’t win the election in June we could see another sell-off for the Pound.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/AUD remains range-bound as the Brexit process begins, where to next for GBP/AUD? (Joseph Wright)

Despite this week being historic for the UK the Pound has remained relatively flat vs the Australian Dollar throughout the week, and at the time of writing the currency has moved less than 1% against the Aussie since the week’s beginning.

I’m of the opinion that the Brexit has been priced into the Pounds value, and I’m not expecting to see another major sell-off in the pound. I made this prediction prior to the UK’s triggering of Article 50 and I think moving forward the only factor that could cause another historic drop like the one we saw last June would be if it becomes public that trade negotiations are going terribly for the UK during this key 2-year period.

Later this morning there will be GDP figures released for the UK, with expectations of 2% annually and 0.7% on a quarterly basis. I think that economic data out of the UK is likely to be watched closely by financial markets due to the UK’s ongoing plans to leave the EU. If you would like to be kept updated regarding key data releases and sharp price movements between the Pound and the Aussie Dollar do feel free to register your details with me and I’ll be happy to keep you updated.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/AUD gains in the lead up to Brexit’s official start, where to next for GBP/AUD? (Joseph Wright)

Investor fears surrounding the UK economy appear to have waned over the past week or so, as the Pound has once again gained across the board of major currency pairs during today’s trading session.

Those converting Aussie Dollars into Pounds are seeing the exchange rates offered weaken on almost a daily basis at the moment. At the beginning of last week the mid-market rate sat at 0.6250 whereas it’s currently trading at 0.6066, losing almost 2 cents in a short period of time.

Personally, I’m not expecting to see the Pound sold off heavily once the UK makes its intentions to leave the EU official. The Brexit is now arguably priced into the Pound’s value and I think the reason GBP/AUD has risen quite substantially is due to both the certainty the deadline date of the 29th of March has given the markets, as well as the likelihood of future interest rate  changes from both the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia.

The rise in US interest rates has also limited demand for the Aussie Dollar as investors switch funds from the high yielding Aussie Dollar and into the safe haven currency of the US Dollar.

The BoE’s next interest rate change is looking like it will be a rise to counter rising inflation, so moving forward I’m expecting to see the GBP/AUD rate test 1.70 as opposed to 1.60. I think the potential downside for Sterling’s value could come from a breakdown in trade negotiations as the Brexit begins so those hoping the Pound climbs further from here should close attention to this topic.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

When will the UK trigger Article 50 and the impact for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Overnight the news has broken that Parliament has approved the Brexit bill which now means that the UK government can officially trigger Article 50 and the UK can open negotiations to leave the European Union.

At some point today Royal Assent is also likely to be granted but he trigger is not expected to happen until later on this month.

The problem by triggering it at this moment is that the Dutch elections take place tomorrow and the Scottish National Party are due to hold a conference and the main point made by Nicola Sturgeon will be calling for a second Scottish referendum.

The problem of Scotland having another referendum is that we saw huge losses for Sterling against all major currencies in the run up to the vote and so I anticipate that we’ll see further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar and I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD rates fall below 1.60 on the Interbank level during the course of this week.

Scotland did not want to leave the European Union and will be active over the next few months trying to put obstacles in the way of the Brexit talks.

Sterling has fallen against all major currencies including against the Australian Dollar and it appears as though Article 50 will not take place until towards the end of this month as suggested by Brexit secretary David Davis.

In terms of economic data Chinese Industrial Production came out better than expected which has also given the Australian Dollar a boost vs the Pound.

Tomorrow the US Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision and the likelihood is that the US will hike rates and as this is almost guaranteed to happen it may not have the usual effect on the Australian Dollar which will often weaken the Aussie Dollar.

Currency markets tends to price in news so this time around I don’t expect any real negative movement for the Australian Dollar.

My prediction for the rest of the week is further strength for the Australian Dollar vs the Pound.

If you have a currency requirement to either buy or sell Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will the Pound recover from its multi-month low? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is currently trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since mid-January.

Whilst Pound Sterling has been losing value against most major currencies in recent weeks as the beginning of the Brexit looms, its losses against the Australian Dollar have been more profound as the Aussie Dollar has been going from strength to strength in recent weeks.

If the Australian economy continues to show signs of growth this year, it will break a new record in terms of successive growth and overtake the Netherlands existing record. Australia is only one month away from entering its 104th consecutive quarter of economic growth without a recession, and the Country also has one of the highest interest rates in the developed world so the demand for the currency is understandable.

Its also worth noting that commodity prices have been strengthening recently which is also a positive for the Aussie Dollar due to the Australian economies reliance on its export driven economy.

With so many positives for the Australian Dollar and the Brexit just around corner, I wouldn’t be surprised to see AUD continue to strengthen and I think GBP/AUD is more likely to dip below 1.60 than exceed 1.70.

One potential downside for the Aussie Dollar though is the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting Interest Rates in the hope of the Aussie weakening. If the currency becomes too strong it could weigh on the economy, and this will in the minds of the RBA when they consider interest rate decisions.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

GBP/AUD declines further, will the pair fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is dropping in value once again against the Aussie Dollar, which in contrast to how the currency is performing against other major currencies such as the Euro or the US Dollar.

After some less than impressive US economic data releases so far this week, demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar is on the rise as the likelihood of the US Fed Reserve Bank raising interest rates 3 times this year is likely to weaken if economic data out of the US doesn’t justify it.

Planning a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar can be difficult as it’s performance depends on a number of outside factors. There are fears the Aussie could weaken as the year goes on if the US is to raise interest rates a number of times this year as demand for the US Dollar will then increase, and investors would likely move deposits from the likes of the Aussie Dollar into the US Dollar.

The Australian economy is also reliant on key trading partners such as China so a slowdown in the Chinese economy could also weigh on AUD’s value but as it stands the currency is doing particularly well.

With the Brexit process to begin next month I think there’s a chance the Pound could come under additional pressure, and we may see the mid -market level between GBP/AUD fall below 1.60.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Huge week for Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates (Tom Holian)

So far during 2017 the Australian economy has been performing extremely well with gains vs the Pound of over 5% since the turn of the year.

Unemployment data down under is getting better and better and so far the Australian Dollar is one of the best performing currencies of 2017.

The Reserve Bank of Australia came out recently to confirm that they will be keeping interest rates on hold at 1.5% and with much higher interest rates than the rest of many western economies the Australian Dollar is often used in carry trading. This means borrowing in a low yielding currency and investing in a higher return and this is another reason why the currency is still strong against the Pound.

Tomorrow night however we could see a small shift in GBPAUD rates as the US Federal Reserve are due to release their latest set of minutes from their previous meeting.

If there is any hint that the Fed may have further appetite later this year to raise interest rates this could see a sell off for riskier commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar so we could see GBPAUD rates go in an upwards direction overnight.

Turning the focus back to what is happening in the UK we have the House of Lords discussions taking place at the moment with an answer due by tonight.

They are currently discussing the Brexit bill and the likelihood is that there will be no obvious challenge to what has been suggested previously and if this is the case we could see Sterling strength as it provides the government with more control to take things forward.

The other significant data release to concern anyone with a Sterling vs Australian Dollar requirement will come tomorrow with UK GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2016.  The expectation is for 2.2% year on year so anything different is likely to cause big movements.

Overall there is a lot of data due before the end of his month both politically and economically which will impact GBPAUD rates so it is important to stay up to date.

If you have a pending currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the industry since 2003 and I’m confident not only of being able to offer you savings but also help you with the timing.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

UK Retail Sales data causes Sterling to fall against the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate fell once again after another poor release of UK Retail Sales which showed their worst performance for three years.

The data has fallen for the third month in a row and with inflation rising in the UK and average earnings showing a fall recently this could be a sign of things to come for the British economy.

This now makes it less likely that the Bank of England will look at raising interest rates this year.

UK Retail Sales were expected to see a growth of 1% but instead the data came out at -0.3% and this caused the Pound to fall vs the Australian Dollar.

Bank of England governor has previously predicted a slowdown and has been criticised for his negative outlook but his judgements appear to be getting more accurate recently.

Since Brexit GBPAUD exchange rates have dropped by over 15% and with Australia now having avoided recession for over 26 years it is difficult to see any gains for Sterling coming anytime soon.

With Article 50 also dominating the political landscape the Pound is remaining under real pressure against all major currencies and I think we could see Interbank levels drop below 1.60 during the course of this month.

Next week the UK releases its first estimate of GDP figures for the fourth quarter on Wednesday so if you need to buy or sell Australian Dollars then keep a close eye on what happens to exchange rates immediately following the release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked in the industry since 2003 I can also with my experience help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Where next for Australian Dollar exchange rates against Sterling (Tom Holian)

The Pound to the Australian Dollar has fallen during the course of the week after the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed that they will be keeping interest rates on hold. This was compounded with the Statement released at the end of the week as it appears as if any interest rate change is off the agenda for the time being.

This has seen the Australian Dollar strengthen vs the Pound providing some good opportunities to take advantage of when converting Australian Dollars into Sterling.

The price of iron ore has been rising recently and this was reflected in the recent Commodity Index and this has also helped the Aussie Dollar.

Even though the investment in the mining industry has decreased over the last 5 years the value of commodities has been rising and Chinese demand continues.

The Pound is also being negatively affected by what is happening in the UK politically with the never ending saga of Brexit and the uncertainty of what may happen once Article 50 is triggered.

At the moment there is no clear path ahead and this is why Sterling has continued to suffer against the Australian Dollar and I think we could even see GBPAUD rates drop below 1.60 at some point this month.

My reasoning is that UK economic data has generally been quite strong highlighted by yesterday’s GDP figures.

Typically this would strengthen the Pound vs the Australian Dollar but with GBPAUD rates falling yesterday it seems clear that it is the political uncertainty that is causing Sterling’s demise.

Therefore, if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth organising this soon as with Article 50 likely to be triggered next month this could cause all sorts of problems for Sterling.

If you don’t have the full availability of the funds you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or for a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Please outline your particular requirement and the timescale involved and I’ll respond with my suggestions.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk