Tag Archives: GBPAUD rates

GBP to Australian Dollar Forecast – UK politics and Australian interest rates

The Pound fell by 5 cents against the Australian Dollar during last month after what has been a very uncertain time politically in the UK.

Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation and we are now in the midst of a leadership election within the Tory party.

The likelihood is that the battle for the next Prime Minister will continue until late July, which means more political uncertainty and this could cause ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates.

The other problem for the Pound is that the next Prime Minister will likely be more of a Brexiteer and this could increase the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Personally speaking I don’t think a no-deal Brexit will happen which means that we’re likely to have to extend the October deadline, have a second referendum or even potentially have another general election. All of these options care likely to cause problems for the Pound.

However, in the very near future the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announcing their latest monetary policy overnight. The strong likelihood is that we’ll see the central bank cut interest rates to their lowest level on record of just 1.25%.

If after the interest rate cut they announce that there could be further rate cuts coming then I think this could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars at the moment.

The Australian economy has been showing signs of problems recently with employment, economic growth and inflation so I think the RBA will signal that there are further rate cuts to be made but depending on the timelines offered this could cause a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates overnight.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of looking to convert Australian Dollars then pay close attention to the decision made as well as the RBA’s accompanying statement.

I have personally worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote then send me an email with an outline of your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound Australian Dollar Forecast – Pound improves after coal tensions

The Pound has continued to make gains vs the Australian Dollar after it emerged that the Chinese have put an indefinite ban on the amount of Australian coal coming in to the country.

The amount has been capped at 12mn tonnes per year and as China accounts for 34% of Australia’s export market it is a big concern for the Australian economy and this has been reflected in the Australian Dollar which has weakened to its lowest level vs Sterling since October 2018.

Clearly this issue could become a big problem for the Australian Dollar and Australia’s Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is seeking some clarity on the situation before the issue gets worse and RBA governor Philip Lowe has said ‘if it were to the sign of a deterioration in the underlying political relationship between Australia and China then that would be more concerning.’

Yesterday morning Australian unemployment came out at 5% which was in line with expectation and typically this would have helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen vs the Pound but it did little to impact GBPAUD rates as the markets focused on the tensions between China and Australia.

During the next few days and as we come to the end of the month there is little economic data due out for Australia so the coal story is likely to dominate the next few days for the Australian Dollar.

In the meantime the UK may be holding the next vote on Brexit on 27th February and at the moment it appears that the deal is far from being approved so I expect another loss for the Prime Minister in the House of Commons.

This could give the Pound a boost as it means that Brexit may not be happening 5 weeks from today and the likelihood is that Article 50 is extended.

Although this will not solve anything it does mean that the finite period of uncertainty is removed and this could provide the Pound with a lift against the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank or another broker then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

US-China Trade War does not bode well for AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Prolonged Trade War could hit the Australian Dollar

Sterling remains fragile against the majority of major currencies due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit, I feel GBP/AUD would be even lower than current levels if it were not for the US-China trade war.

Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s goods and services and the trade war is causing a slow down in economic growth. China has being going tit for tat on tariffs with the US and despite the current pause the situation has the potential to escalate.

The onus is on China to get the trade war sorted as quickly as possible. The trade war is a threat to China’s already slowing economy, growth missed economist’s forecasts by 0.1% in the 3rd quarter landing at 6.5%. This is the weakest quarterly growth since 2008.

There is a disproportionate effect on China when compared to the US. China’s exports to the US amounts to a bigger section of the Chinese economy than the amount to which China-bound US exports represent to the US economy. In 2017 China exported USD 50bln of goods to the States form  a USD 12trn total. This is compared to the US who exported USD 130bln worth of goods to China from USD 19trln GDP.

At present there is a 90 day pause on tariffs which commenced at the beginning of December. The US has agreed to hold back on a 25% increase on Chinese products if China agree to negotiate making fundamental changes to it’s current economic model. A 25% increase is extremely high and would no doubt have a severe impact on both economies.

This does not bode well for the Aussie. If it were not for the debacle that is Brexit I think we would be witnessing the Pound strengthen against the Australian Dollar. Brussels have stated they are not willing to make any changes to May’s deal and it glaringly obvious it will not get voted through parliament in it’s current form. We could be looking at a leadership challenge for Corbyn or a no deal scenario which would both hurt Sterling even more. I feel a second referendum could boost Sterling as polls suggest voters would now wish to remain in the EU, I think May would have to go for this scenario to emerge.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Thank you for reading.

Selling falls against the Australian Dollar after chances of a No-Brexit deal increase

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate has fallen below the key 1.80 mark during today’s trading session. This is key as the GBP/AUD pair had previously consolidated above this level and traded as high as 1.85 before the recent fall which has taken place because of the Brexit related comments this week.

At the time of writing the EU leaders are all currently in Austria, as they have been for the past couple of days as there is an informal summit taking place. Whilst there have been some positive comments regarding Brexit recently the summit has all together been a negative for the Pound as the currency has fallen dramatically against a range of currency pairs, with the fall against AUD being quite dramatic in terms of recent price movement which has mostly been thin.

Much of the talk revolves around the Chequers deal, and whether or not it will be both the preferred approach of the UK government and also accepted by the EU members, which at the moment is looking unlikely especially after a speech by UK Prime Minister, Theresa May today.

There is a bank holiday down under on Monday of next week, as it’s the Queen’s birthday and there aren’t any major releases until next Friday which means I’m expecting the Pound to be the main driver of currency fluctuation between the GBP/AUD pair.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

The reasons why the Pound could climb against the Australian Dollar this month (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has remained in a relatively tight range recently although GBPAUD rates have been trying to hit 1.80 on a number of occasions already this month.

In my own opinion I think it is only a matter of time before the Pound breaks past 1.80 as the Australian Dollar is coming under a lot of pressure recently.

The latest report from China in terms of GDP data has shown a slowdown to 6.7%, which although this is clearly much higher than that of any of the western economies this has caused concern for the world’s second largest economy and this has caused the Australian Dollar to weaken against a number of different currencies including the Pound.

The US has been threatening China with a Trade War and has put in potential plans to raise tariffs of US$200bn to come into play in the next few weeks.

Whether or not this is simply the US flexing its financial power or it will take place is anyone’s guess at the moment but the uncertainty it has caused has made global investors move money away from riskier currencies and towards the US Dollar and this has in turn harmed the value of the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia released the latest set of minutes and they confirmed that interest rates are likely to be kept on hold for the time being.

With the US planning further interest rate hikes as well as the UK considering doing the same as early as 2nd August this is another reason why we could see the Pound moving in an upwards direction against the Australian Dollar in the next fortnight.

If you have a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Important news to move Australian dollar exchange rates!

The Australian dollar has been a stronger contender on exchange rates lately as investors back the Australian dollar to potentially improve in the future. This is all owing to the improved expectations we have of late that the Chinese economy will improve further and the global economy is not as badly affected by the Trade Wars.

The Trade Wars and potential future trading activity of the global economy is a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates, if you are looking for improvements for buying or selling the Australian dollar, keeping abreast of the latest developments is key to maximising your overall position. Australian unemployment data next week could be a big driver as attitudes to the economy and the labour market are vital to shifts in the likelihood of the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) to raise interest rates in the future.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then understanding the market and all of your options in advance is highly recommended to help minimise the inherent uncertainty of just where levels could potentially go. On GBPAUD exchange rates we could easily see the rate rise to 1.80 if better UK news and worse information on the Aussie comes into play.

Next week is also crucial as we have the latest US interest rate decision where the market is anticipating further information from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate expectations. This could see the US dollar rise which would weaken the Aussie, their relationship is quite closely linked since both now have similar interest rates but investors might prefer to hold the US dollar as it is seen as a more stable and reliable currency.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key, for more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jobs data to cause movement this week for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has been trading either  side of 1.80 on the Interbank level during the last few days.

The Australian Dollar has gained by as much as 5 cents vs the Pound which appears to have strengthened against the Pound after a combination of negative data from the UK.

The Bank of England confirmed last Thursday that they would be again keeping interest rates on hold with a 7-2 split in favour of keeping rates the same and this caused the Pound to fall against a number of different currencies.

It wasn’t just the announcement itself but also the downgrading of the recent UK’s growth forecast which caused the Pound to struggle and later on this morning we have a number of key economic indicators in the form of both Average Earnings data as well as UK unemployment levels.

Both have been very impressive in recent times and so another positive announcement could see the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar later today.

On Thursday the focus will return to the Australian jobs market with Australian unemployment data combined with the Participation rate. The expectation is for 5.5% unemployment so anything different is likely to cause a lot of movement.

Personally, I think we could see GBPAUD rates go in an upwards direction if the data from the UK is positive this morning.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency companies for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will GBPAUD remain above 1.80?

The pound to Australian dollar rate is looking like it might rise further in the future so for clients looking to sell AUD for pounds a quick move is probably sensible. With the levels now safely above 1.80 fr over a week the prospect for it to dip back below 1.80 seems unlikely. Overall the expectation for clients who will need to buy pounds with Aussies is that moving sooner will probably be best.

We learned this week that the pound should find more favour against the Australian dollar on the back of improved expectations relating to the prospect of interest rate rises. The GBPAUD rate was dealt a double whammy when the US raised interest rates but also confirmed extra buoyancy in future hikes which has kept the AUD weaker against both currencies.

We learned very recently that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will be looking less likely to raise interest rates in the future, this has seen the Australian currency weaker. Interest rates are a major barometer of what will happen to a currency in the future, the expectations that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise interest rates ahead of the RBA is putting the Aussie on the back foot.

The next stages of progress will be made in the coming weeks, any surprise twists and turns on Brexit could unsettle the pound GBPAUD rate but the overall impression looks more positive. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds and Australian dollars making plans ahead of any spike is the best course of action.

If you have a transfer and wish for some expert information and assistance on the currency markets, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing back from you.

Best rate to buy Australian Dollars since June 2016 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has risen close to EU referendum highs this week against the Australian Dollar after news that a transitional deal has been confirmed.

This has given Sterling a boost against a number of major currencies and with the EU summit due to take place if the talks go well this could see GBPAUD exchange rates continue to rise.

The Australian Dollar has also struggled in recent weeks as the chances are that we will see a number of interest rate hikes in the US during the course of this year and tonight the US Federal Reserve are due to increase interest rates, which will take them higher that in Australia.

In recent years global investors have moved money into Australia owing to the higher yield but as the US economy is improving and a series of rate hike plans are planned this has caused the Australian Dollar to weaken.

In a number of my previous articles I wrote that I thought we would see Sterling break past 1.80 during the course of this month and this has all been proved right.

The minutes from the recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting suggested that the chances of an interest rate hike down under are very low and this in my mind has caused investors to sell the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar, which has pushed GBPAUD rates in an upwards direction.

Australian unemployment figures are due overnight as well as Australian employment change data and this could cause a lot of movement overnight so make sure you keep a close eye out on what happens with this data release.

Arguably the most important event for GBPAUD rates will be the EU summit which starts tomorrow so expect a lot of volatility in the days ahead.

If you would like further information about what is happening with the Australian Dollar as well as a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. The more information you provide me about your particular transfer means I can provide you with a more detailed answer.

To Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Best rates to buy AUD with GBP in 21 months!

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has risen to fresh highs, largely owing to a stronger pound. The outlook for the pound against the Australian dollar is now much better as progress on Brexit and confirmation of a transitional deal helps the pound to rise. The Australian dollar could come under further pressure this week as central banks in the UK and US are in focus.

Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes have been released which has seen the Australian dollar relatively unchanged, if you need to buy or sell Australian dollars against pounds the markets appears that it will be favouring the pound for this week anyway. Another major factor this week will be what happens with the US interest rate decision on Wednesday evening, this is when the US dollar might rise.

The relationship of the US dollar to the Australian dollar is very important and one that will see the big movements on GBPAUD and EURAUD too. When the US dollar rises it will often lead to the Australian dollar weakening too which gives the better opportunities to buy AUD with sterling.

There is a real belief that we could see further improvements for AUD buyers this week if the US Federal Reserve are positive in their outlook on interest rates. The pound is now at some of the best levels to buy Australian dollars since the Referendum 2016, this might well see the pound stronger further if more Brexit progress is announced.

For more information at no cost or obligation on the best ratesand timing to buy Australian dollars with pounds, please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.