Tag Archives: GBPAUD

Back to normal on GBPAUD exchanges!

After briefly rising above 1.70 on a strengthening pound and a weaker Aussie, GBPAUD is currently back into the 1.68’s. This is largely a revert to the more normal themes on the currency pair with sterling ebbing lower and the Aussie stronger. The pound is weaker because UK economic data has failed to live up to the high expectations, the Australian dollar stronger because the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept rates on hold and were not dovish in their commentary over when rates might rise in Australia.

I say back to normal because this is the more usual behaviour the pair has displayed and that has driven GBPAUD rates. We have said many times that for any clients buying Australian dollars with pounds will more than likely end up disappointed from holding on too long since the pound seems bound to remain on the weaker side.

Some investors had also been laying bets the RBA would raise interest rates next year, the removal of these expectations in commentary fro the RBA had seen the Aussie weaker helping with the moves over 1.70 recently. However despite the change in sentiment, the Australian dollar with a interest rate of 1.5% remains one of the most attractive currencies to hold from the perspective of how much yield or return it will give investors. This helps keep the Australian dollar strong and should serve as a reminder to any clients hoping GBPAUD would quickly go to 1.80 or higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global events also must be factored in here, the Australian dollar was weaker on concerns over North Korea too but these tensions have cooled. Expectations on when the US will raise interest rates also play a part and could see the Aussie weaker if the US raise interest rates in December although generally speaking the US has been disappointing investors with the pace of hikes and the US dollar is much softer.

Friday is the big day this week with US Non-Farm Payroll data which will have a bearing on the Aussie as investors switch positions around according to their views on the US and global economy.

If you have a transfer pending buying or selling Australian dollars why not get in touch and see if we can help? I am very confident I can give you some insight into the latest trends plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, you have nothing to lose from sending an email.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any transfers.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD continue to rise this month?

The pound made considerable gains against the Australian dollar throughout September due to the Bank of England’s stance surrounding future interest rates and the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that an interest rate hike could occur as early as November and currency speculators have purchased the pound in anticipation.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australian Philip Lowe confirmed that an interest rate hike anytime soon is unlikely as they do not want to see household debt rise further.

In other news iron ore prices in Austrian have been taking a tumble in recent weeks. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export and when iron ore prices fall this tends to mean the Austrian dollar follows suit. If iron ore continues to decline I expect buying Austrian dollars will become cheaper in the upcoming weeks.

Another factor that will have a major impact on GBPAUD exchange rates is Brexit developments. Currently Brexit negotiations have stalled once again as UK and EU negotiations cannot come to an agreement in regard to the divorce settlement or EU citizens rights once the UK depart the EU. This could be a story that has a positive or negative impact on the pound.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

A dramatic fall for the Australian dollar

Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar lost value against all of the major currencies due to RBA governor Philip Lowe announcing that it was unlikely the RBA would raise interest rates anytime soon.

Within my last article I suggested this would be the case, as the Governor in recent months has made it clear if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen in value, this could have a negative impact on GDP and the amount of jobs that are created.

The Australian dollar also took a tumble due to a further fall in the commodity iron ore. Iron ore is Australia’s largest goods export and over the last six trading sessions is down 13.7%. There is a direct correlation with iron ore and Australian dollar exchange rates. When iron falls exchange rates fall when iron rises exchange rates rise.

However the Australian dollar didn’t devalue much against sterling this week as Theresa May’s lack lustre speech in Florence Friday left the currency markets wanting more and therefore a sell off of sterling occurred. The PM gave no indication to how much the UK would pay the EU when the UK departs and this is what the market was anticipating.

It’s a quiet week for Australian economic data releases, the only release to look out for is Private sector credit Friday morning however this isn’t normally a big market mover. For people that are buying or selling Australian dollars this week should also analyse the other currency that you are converting.

If you are making a currency conversion in the upcoming weeks or months, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair you are converting (AUDUSD, AUDEUR, AUDGBP) the reason for your transfer (business transaction, property purchase) and the timescales you are working to and I will respond to your email with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

Dayle Littlejohn

 

 

Will Theresa May strengthen the pound against the Australian dollar?

This Friday UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to deliver a life after Brexit speech and economists are predicting a volatile day for sterling vs Australian dollar exchange rates. An EU official has stated that she has an important intervention to make however has made no further comment.

Rumours are suggesting that the Prime Minister may back track from comments made by her fellow peers within the Conservative party and actually state the UK will be paying the EU an amount of euros to depart. If this is the case I expect the pound to rally against the Australian dollar as the UK are one step closer to negotiating a trade deal with the bloc.

However if the rumours are not true and she exclaims that the UK and EU are struggling to come to an agreement then this could lead to a major sell off of sterling and the recent gains for Australian dollar buyers could diminish. Personally if I were buying Australian dollars if we see a shift above 1.70 I would seriously be tempted to take advantage before the pound finds itself under pressure again when Brexit negotiations begin towards the end of the month.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE TO BUY YOUR CURRENCY IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING  **

Will the GBPAUD rise back to 1.70?

The pound has slipped below the 1.70 mark we briefly touched as investors initial excitement at the prospect of a UK interest rate hike begins to fade. The pound soared last week breaking the 1.70 mark but this was not sustainable, the Australian dollar has been much weaker too but we have seen it regain some strength back too. With almost 5 cents improvements from the worst rates in a very short space of time there are some very good arguments for buying Australian dollars with pounds at present, however there is more important news this week that could influence the rates.

A more optimistic tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes released this week also predicted two hikes in 2018 and talked of the recent highs in Iron Ore prices, all positive news that has helped the Aussie. This is all in contrast to last week when a board member Harper stated he felt that there was little the RBA could do and that the main driver on the AUD was movements on the US dollar.

Big news this week will be the US Federal Reserve Interest rate decision this evening. There is a very strong relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar, investors will essentially look to capitalise on the stronger interest rates in Australia but with the US also on a path to raising their own interest rates we could easily see big swings.

Governor Philip Lowe is also due to speak tomorrow and his comments will be watched closely for signs of how he views the possibility of raising interest rates. Friday we have a very important speech from Theresa May in Florence on Brexit which could really see the pound stronger if as expected she indicates a commitment to paying some form of Brexit bill.

GBPAUD is much improved and may well rise higher but it would be a shame for Aussie buyers to miss out on the current much higher rates. If you have a transfer to make and wish to get some extra information to help make a decision on an exchange please contact me Jonathan watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

A fairly quiet end to the week for Australian economic data – Bank of England interest rate decision is key today on the markets (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar has remained fairly strong over the past few weeks, mainly down to the Australian economy still posting fairly strong GDP, a strong labour market and solid business investment in recent data.

The one thing that has held the Australian Dollar back has been the weakening of commodity prices and the issues with North Korea causing the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies to lose a little strength.

Chief economist at NAB (National Australia Bank) recently commented that he feels the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) may look to raise interest rates in mid 2018 should this trend of positive news continue.

Today will be key for anyone with an interest in buying Australian Dollars with Sterling or selling Sterling to buy Australian Dollars. At Midday in the U.K we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Recent news this week has shown that inflation in the U.K is rising at a fairly rapid pace and currently is sat at 2.9% whilst average earnings figures are only creeping up at 2.1%.

It is doubtful that we will see any changes to interest rates from the Bank of England but what will be key is any indication that the rates may move sooner than the expectation of 2019 then GBP/AUD exchange rates may well be in for a volatile afternoon, or night if you are based in Australia.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then it would be prudent to get in touch with us directly here as we are experts in this field and can both save you money and ensure your funds arrive where they need to be in a smooth and efficient transaction.

Should you wish to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally then you can get in touch with me by email on djw@currencies.co.uk or by contact our trading floor during U.K trading hours on +44 (01494 725353) quoting Australian Dollar Forecast and asking for me personally.

Bank of England to dictate GBPAUD exchange rates tomorrow

Earlier in the week UK inflation numbers gave support for the pound and GPBAUD exchange rates has increased 4 cents in the last couple of weeks. To put this into monetary terms a 200,000 Australian dollar purchase is now £3,000 cheaper.

Tomorrow the Bank of England will release their latest interest rate decision and I expect this decision to dictate exchange rates for the remainder of the week. Even though inflation numbers now sit at 2.9% I don’t expect the Bank of England to hint towards a future interest rate hike and if anything I expect the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to talk down the pound.

In recent months Mark Carney has insisted that monetary policy will be dictated by developments coming from Brexit. At present UK and EU negotiators cant find common ground in regards to how much the UK will pay to leave the EU and EU citizens rights therefore this is my reasoning why I dont expect this event to help the pounds value.

Short term Australian dollar buyers may wish to purchase there currency at some point tomorrow morning. 

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade Australian dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 0044 1494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Will GBPAUD fall below 1.60?

The pound might well easily fall below 1.60 in the future as global conditions continue to favour the current trends we are witnessing on the currency pairing. Expectations for the pound remain confined to the uncertainty over future direction on the Brexit which does not look like being resolved any time soon. If you look at the timelines we have until 2019 for a deal to be arranged for the UK. Of course there is lots to sort out but it is more than likely the negotiations will go down to the wire.

Next week is a very important one for Australia with the latest Unemployment data released. This data has so far been a key indicator as to the strength of the Australian economy and therefore the Australian dollar. If you need to buy Australian dollars this release next week will be the key point of information to be focusing on.

Markets will move for a whole range of reasons, movement on the AUD is further complicated by its relations to international events which influence global attitudes to risk. Generally speaking markets are volatile with a number of key developments with North Korea and the United States. Such concerns can weigh on the Australian dollar which may see some big unexpected swings.

Overall the weakness of sterling seems like it will continue to drag the pair down, the improving and consistent economic picture in Australia should help this trend further. Rates below 1.60 seem a very real possibility in the coming weeks and months. There does remain however the very real possibility events like North Korea shake markets and we see the Aussie suffer.

If you have a transfer to make in the future please speak to us today to learn of the latest news and events in the future that could move your rates. Please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Demand for the Australian dollar

In recent years the Australian dollar has seemed to follow trend with the US dollar. In times of uncertainty currency traders would flock to the US dollar due to its safe haven status and leave commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. With tensions rising on the Korean Peninsula you would expect the Australian dollar to be losing ground against the major currencies as traders lose appetite however this is far from truth.

A recent report last week from ANZ showed speculative trading hitting the highest levels since 2013, just showing that flocking to the US dollar isn’t the game plan for many traders like years gone by. With the US dollar continue to devalue I expect the Euro and Australian dollar to continue to rise therefore clients holding onto Australian dollars could continue to benefit in the weeks to come.

Earlier in the week Australian dollar interest rates were held at 1.5%, which is another reason for speculators choosing the Australian dollar. If you look globally 1.5% is one of the highest interest rates on offer. The likes of the UK sit at 0.25% and the Eurozone at 0%.

Data releases to look out for moving forward are GDP numbers Wednesday morning, Retail sales Thursday morning and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech Friday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mr Lowe try and talk down the Aussie as exchange rates continue to run at worrying high levels, levels that the Governor has already eluded to as dangerous for the Australian economy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

A warning from the RBA

The Australian dollar has been the fourth best performing currency out of the top 10 most traded currencies and is 10.2% stonger on average against all of the major currencies since that start of the year. However Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia announced last week that he believes the Australian dollar is overvalued and it’s only a matter of time until this starts to have a negative impact on the Australian economy. The Governor beleieves  GDP growth, inflation could start to fall and jobs might be at risk.

Friday morning the Reserve Bank of Australia released their latest monetary policy statement and the central bank reacted to the overvalued Australian dollar by cutting growth forecasts up until the end of the year by 0.5%. However the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that they are optimistic that economic growth would recover over the next 12 months as long as the currency did not continue to strengthen further.

For clients that are selling Australian dollars to buy pounds, I don’t believe the RBA are in the position to cut interest rates in a bid to devalue the Australian dollar however I expect at any opportunity the Governor of the RBA will talk down the currency in a bid to devalue it, a common practice known as jawboning. As exchange rates have improved 10 cents since the start of June and with such an uncertain time ahead this spike in the market may be worth taking advantage of.

If you are trading GBPAUD this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **