Tag Archives: GDP
GDP estimates this afternoon could be key for short term GBP/AUD movement
Recently the Australian dollar has continued its ascent against the pound moving close to record highs, nearly breaching the 1.45 barrier. Today we have a number of data releases which if positive could give the pound a shot in the arm. At 09:30 we have industrial and manufacturing figures from the UK. These have been very negative of late and any improvement could give the pound a much needed boost, however should this negative trend continue then watch for further sterling weakness. This mornings data is followed by UK GDP estimates at 15:00. These figures will be eagerly anticipated to see if the UK is on path to escape the triple dip recession.
For me this is key to the short term trends for the pound. We have a central bank that have openly talked down the value of sterling an a last ditch attempt to claw the UK out of recession and figures are suggesting this could be a very close call. If official GDP data from Q1 is at 0% or better then recession has been avoided and I a long overdue correction for the pound could be seen. Anyone buying AUD may see some opportunities if today’s estimates are positive, however should you be selling you will find it difficult to find a better time to sell AUD. Rates have moved some 8% since the start of the year, a pretty good return in anyone’s eyes and a real opportunity should you be selling.
To discuss the best way for exchanging your currency and to see what rates we can achieve then please contact the office on 01494 787478. Alternatively please email me with a brief description of your currency requirement and I will happily run through the next step and types of contracts we can offer. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.
Get the best exchange rates for your Australian Dollars
Sterling exchange rates have started off relatively stable this morning remaining steady at the 1.55 level. Following last Thursdays positive GDP figures the pound has reversed some of the losses seen recently against the Aussie, this sis something that may continue as the threat of further Quantitative Easing from the UK becomes less likely. Prior to last Thursday’s data the general feeling was the Bank of England would pump up to £50bn through QE into the system at the interest rate meeting next week, however this is now unlikely and as a result the pound may well have been slightly undervalued and I could easily see a move back towards 1.56/57 territory. Buyers therefore may wish to take stock and get in contact to run through the various contracts we can offer to secure your currency.
Through utilising the services of a money broker clients can put themselves in a much better position when it comes to the timing of their foreign exchange transfer. As part of the service your broker will keep you updated with market trends and upcoming market date that can affect your trade. Market conditions are particularly volatile and it is not uncommon to see market swings well in excess of 1 cent, by keeping your broker updated with the timings of your exchange we can contact you should your target price be reached or keep you updated should the market be moving against you. To discuss the transfer and many different contracts we can offer please contact Mike on 01494 4787478 or email me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Forecast for the Australian Dollar. GBP/AUD, AUD/EUR
Over the course of the weekend we have seen continued strength from the Australian dollar, will this continue? This morning the pound is again losing ground against the Aussie, however the pound is down across the board so this would appear to be Sterling weakness rather than a continuation of strength form the Australian Dollar. The pound could be in for a rocky week in the run up to GDP estimates from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well regarded think tank. Figures are often relatively accurate and will therefore be viewed closely. Should the figures continue to show a negative etrend then we could see further moves towards 1.47 – just 1 cent of the record levels seen in February this year and creating some fanatastic sell opportunities for anyone holding Australian dollars. Also this week for anyone looking at GBP/AUD we have the Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday at 10.30 – keep an eye on this foany clues as to future Montary policy from the Bank of England.
Prior to this anyone with an interest in teh Aussie should keep an eyo the Reserve Bank fo Australia interest rate decision overnight. We are expecting to see rates on hold at 3.5% but any announcements from the Reserve Bank may cause short term swings, however I would still expect the Australian dollar to continue to see positive movements ands can see 1.47 on GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD down towards 1.16 – although I do feel the Aussie is beginning to reach its peak and any AUD sellers should sseriously consider taking advanatage.
As a specialist curreny broker the aim of this blog is to help private and corporate clients make the most of their currency exchange. When moving large sums of money it is highly important to have access to best prices, though using the services of a specialist broker it enables you to keep up todate with current market trends and data sets that may affect yoru exchange. It is not uncommon to see the amrket move well in excess of 1% in a day and timing yoru exchange can make a very big diffeerence to the amount of currency your receive. Here at currencies.co.uk we have a number of contracts available to maxmise or guarantee yoru exchange, to discuss these in more detail and my opninons on the market then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787478.
Will the Australian economy continue to grow and the impact on GBPAUD Exchange Rates
In Australia the economy seems to be at its strongest for 10 months and expectations are for this to continue as the RBA is likely to further provide stimulus to the economy. According to the well respected Chief economist Bill Evans from Westpac ‘the growth rate is the fastest since September 2011 and it will improve in the latter half of 2012 and into early 2013.’ Clearly the mining sector has kept the Australian economy strong and therefore GBPAUD exchange rates have remained in the range of 1.51-1.54 in recent weeks. The central bank kept its interest rates at 3.5% last month as confirmed in its minutes released yesterday but there could be a chance of a rate cut in August to help the economy outside the mining sector. GDP is currently at 1.3% in March for Q1 which compared to UK, Europe or the US is very impressive.
The AUDUSD has hit its highest level in almost two weeks as the Federal Reserve suggested last night that it would take steps to stimulate the economy. Possible scenarios include the Fed going down the route of Quantitative Easing for the third time shortly and therefore keeping both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar strong against the US Dollar and therefore strong against Sterling and the Euro.
With the Australian economy expected to continue its growth we could see exchange rates for GBPAUD drop below 1.50 towards the end of this month. For information as to how to save money when transferring Australian Dollars please do not hesitate to contact me Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Short term forecast for GBP/AUD and the affect of China GDP figures
For me the short term moves for the pound against the AUD will hinge on GDP figures from China released overnight. Much of Aussies recent gains can be attributed to the still relatively booming economy in China, with GDP breaching 10% at times and with China being a net importer of raw materials from Australia, this helped the Aussie post record gains against the pound reaching a 25 year high in February this year (1.47). At this point the AUD looked as though it would go from strength to strength, then China’s projected growth forecasts slowed and GDP (although still comparatively strong) fell to just above 8%. As a result the impact on GBP/AUD was huge, pushing the market back to 1.63 in a matter of weeks. We have recently seen the dollar fight back to the 1.52 territory but with poor expectations for the GDP data tonight (expected to fall from 8.1% to 7.9%) I would expect the value of the dollar to fall and create some good opportunities for those buying the AUD. For those selling the Aussie, remember we are still just 3% away from 25 year highs against the pound and still touching last weeks all time record highs against the Euro – still a strong sell option in my view.
To discuss my views or any upcoming currency transfer you need to arrange then please do not hesitate to contact me at mgv@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give an independent view on the market to try and help you make the best decision for your transfer
Busy week for the currency market, what can we expect for the Australian Dollar?
This week is a very busy week for the Australian Dollar with consumer confidence figures overnight and unemployment figures due overnight tomorrow. Unemployment figures in particular are expected to show a small increase from last month and this may lead to some early morning losses for the Australian Dollar. Other data releases to be aware of will be GDP data released from China overnight of the 13th, with the Australian economy benefiting from recent high growth figures within China (China is a net importer of raw materials from Australia) any sign of the output slowing in China can have a negative affect on the value of the Aussie. Figures are expected to show a contraction month on month from 8.2% to 7.9% and I would again expect the value of the AUD to fall following this release. Those looking to buy AUD may look to see the outcome of this release as there could well be a short term spike later this week, likewise any AUD sellers should be wary.
As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to maximise your currency conversion, ranging from standard spot contracts, to forward options, and limit and stop/loss orders. To run through how each contract works and to discuss current market conditions and how this may affect your particular exchange then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787478.
Data that may affect the AUD this week
Today AUD rates have weakened against a number of currencies notably posting losses against the pound by o.5% - but what is likely to happen to the dollar this week and what data is likely to affect it?
Overnight we have a key data set with the release of the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. This is released by the Reserve Bank of Australia and reviews economic and financial conditions to help determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy. This is key for anyone with a short term requirement involving the Australian dollar as it will give an insight into the RBA’s thoughts with regards to short – medium term interest rate movements. In recent months rumours have been rife that the RBA will be cutting rates, however this has yet to happen. The RBA appear to be keeping their cards very close to their chest but do not appear to be ruling out an interest rate cut in the coming months. This report may well confirm this view and therefore I believe the recent trend we have seen with the AUD weakening could well continue.
Later this week on the 19th we also have business confidence levels for Q1 – this is a current survey of business conditions within Australia and will give a good insight into short term growth projections for Australia. This figure could be down following the latest GDP data from China.
This blog is written by currency brokers to help assist individuals and business’ alike make a decision as to when might be best to convert your currency. Should you wish to discuss your transaction in more detail or wish to run through my opinions on the short term projections for the AUD then please email Michael at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GDP figures for Australia worse than expected
Earlier today we had the release of Australia’s latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures refers to the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period and is viewed as an indicator as to the overall performance of and economy. Figures released were revised figures from Quarter four of 2011 and was expected to come in at 0.8% but was actually 0.4% The figures still highlight that the Australian economy is expanding and if you contrast this to the UK’s recent revised GDP at -0.2% showing a contraction for the economy, the figures still make for far better reading than the current situation facing the UK.
What now for the AUD?
Earlier this week we also had the Reserve Bank of Australia release its latest interest rate decision. The base rate was kept on hold at 4.25% with many analysts expecting a rate cut. In the run up to the decision the AUD had weakened in anticipation of a rate cut but losses were curbed when the decision to hold was released. For those with a longer term AUD requirement do be warned however as the central has indicated that cuts could be on the horizon in the coming months. I personally feel we will see an interest rate cut and yes you could argue that this has been priced into the market but should a cut be seen I would still expect the AUD to lose value should this outcome occur. In the short term for anyone buying AUD we have seen a little spike, and following the GDP data GBP/AUD is now at 6 week high, potentially a good buy opportunity? I would say yes. I feel until we see an interest rate cut the AUD is still likely to remain strong, yes growth forecast for China have bee cut to their lowest in a decade, however the demand from China for raw materials in Australia is still likely to remain strong and hence keep the value of the AUD strong.
Should you have an upcoming currency requirement and wish to discuss yoru transfer on more detail then please do not hesitate to contact me at mgv@currencies.co.uk
