Tag Archives: pound
Pound very close to year highs against the AUD, is there more to come?
In early morning trading the pound hit its highest level against the Australian Dollar since 2nd January reaching a high today of 1.5460 bringing Sterling’s gains against the dollar to nearly 10 cents since the beginning of April, but will this trend continue? Sterling’s moves came following the Bank of England quarterly inflation report in which Mervyn King (head of the Bank of England) was to indicate that the banks growth forecasts have upgraded and they have forecast that inflation levels will fall faster than previously indicated.
This data was to continue the UK’s recent run of stronger data and has painted a slightly more positive picture for the pound as a result. This all bodes well for AUD buyers and I still feel some more value will be seen for GBP/AUD rates for those that can be patient.
For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at the year average it is not all doom and gloom. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Will the RBA cut be the first of many? GBP/AUD exchange rate forecast
Following the recent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 2.75% will this see the first of many throughout the course of 2013? For me I would certainly not be surprised to see another quarter or half point cut by the end of the year but this may well depend on the economic activity/output from China. Recent figures from China have been much softer than late and this may prove a worrying concern to the RBA and I feel they will keep their cards very close to their chest about future monetary policy. What does this mean for the value of the Aussie? Since the start of March we have seen the pound rally nearly 5% and I for one feel this may well be the start of a revival for the pound and would look for moves towards 1.55 in the coming weeks. For this reason I would urge anyone selling AUD to look at their options whilst rates are still historically very favourable, for those buying I feel you will get more value for the pound as we head into the summer months.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email me with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Should the RBA cut interest rates next week I would expect GBP/AUD to move towards 1.52 but EUR/AUD could move back to 1.25
Sterling has once again breached the 1.50 level against the Australian Dollar creating some good opportunities for those looking to buy AUD. We have also seen the Euro rally past 1.27 back from the mid 1.25s earlier this week. For me we are likely to see further opportunities for GBP/AUD, particularly should the Reserve Bank of Australia look to cut interest rates on Tuesday next week. As for EUR/AUD the recent gains could be a stronger opportunity. The European Central Bank will meet tomorrow to discuss their latest interest rate decision with many expect the ECB to cut rates from 0.75% to 0.5%. This will have been priced into the market but I would still expect moves against the Euro to be negative as we finish off the trading week.
Longer term I believe buyers of the Australian Dollar will get stronger opportunities and would expect a shift towards 1.52 for GBP/AUD and would certainly adopt a wait and see approach. I feel the slowing economy in China and the recent strength of the dollar will cause concern for the RBA and I would not be surprised to see a couple of interest rate cuts throughout the year, with opportunities towards 1.55 later this year.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling improves against Australian Dollar following Chinese Slowdown (Tom Holian)
A survey produced by HSBC this morning has indicated that growth in China’s manufacturing sector has slowed down in April. The initial reading for Chinese PMI fell from March’s data of 51.6 to 50.5. Anything above 50 represents expansion so yes they are still growing but clearly there is a slowdown. During 2012 Chinese GDP grew at the slowest pace in 13 years. Growth in the country has also dropped to 7.7% in quarter 1 compared to 7.9% during the final quarter of 2012.
Generally speaking the Australian Dollar is heavily influenced by what is happening in China. With the recent poor performance by the world’s second largest economy we have seen GBPAUD exchange rates break through 1.49 this week, the first time since February. With UK GDP data due to be published on Thursday if we see negative growth this could push the UK into recession which arguably could push Sterling down but my feeling is that this is already priced in so unlikely to have the expected movement on the Pound. Indeed, I think we could see a further strengthening for the Pound if the data is better than expected.
UK Borrowing was £120.6bn in the last 12 months slightly lower than the the previous year of £120.9bn with the UK government planning to reduce this as much as possible with a view to eliminating the budget deficit by 2018. However, Public Sector Net Borrowing now stands at approx £1.2trn which is over 75% of GDP according to the Office for National Statistics.
If you need to buy or sell Australian Dollars and want to make sure you are getting commercial exchange rates we aim to better the rates offered by your bank. For a free quote send me an email with a brief description of your enquiry with ‘FREE QUOTE’ in the subject of the email. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
GBP/AUD shifting towards 1.50……
Sterling exchange rates have shifted over a cent from the high/low today and again have shifted on the side of sterling, pushing prices close to 1.49. Will this shift push past 1.50? For me this will depend on whether the UK can avoid the ‘triple dip’ recession, something we will officially find out on Thursday. I for one am confident a 0% or 0.1% figure will be seen and we should hopefully see some sterling strength as a result. This could provide many, particularly those that that have been waiting for 1.50, with an opportunity as I for one feel we will see 1.50 as a trade price by the end of this week.
In order for you to take advantage of any positive market movement it is important to speak to a foreign exchange epxert who can make you aware of market trends and instigate an exchange should a specific market order be in place. If you are one of the many clients that would be interested in trading at 1.50 and you would like me to set a rate alert or LIMIT contract to make sure you do not miss an opportunity then please contact the office on 01494 725353 and I will gladly run through the process. As one of the market leaders in exectution only foreign exchange I am very confident I can undercut any other provider, get in contact to see what rates we can offer and to see what saving we can make you.
Should you prefer to email then please send a brief description of your transfer and timings to mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP/AUD above 1.48, will we see 1.50? GBP/AUD Exchange rate forecast.
Sterling has rallied back above 1.48 against the Australian Dollar for the first time in nearly 6 weeks, will we see the pound recover to 1.50? Following the poor growth forecasts released by China the AUD has fallen nearly 3 cents in just over 2 days and has created a short term opportunity for anyone in a position to take advantage. Long term this may well be a pattern that continues and particularly if we continue to see a slow down in China then the AUD is a currency that is likely to take a significant hit. However short term buyers of the dollar also need to keep a close eye on any further announcements from the UK with regards to QE (clues will be given tomorrow when the Bank of England release their latest minutes from this months interest rate decision). Any hint towards QE and the recent gains for the pound could be evaporated. Looking to next week watch out for the 25th April when the official GDP data will be released, if the UK can avoid the triple dip and the bank decides against QE then I believe we will see 1.50 by the end of the month.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Whats in store for the AUD today? How to get the best from your money exchange…..
As we start what is almost certain to be another busy and volatile day on the money markets what factors should you be watching out for today should you have an interest in the Australian Dollar? Overnight Westpac released its latest consumer confidence figures which were substantially down. Normally I would expect AUD weakness as a result, however we have actually seen some small gains against both the Pound and Euro indicating how out of favour these two currencies are currently. For me any gains from the pounds point of view will depend on whether the UK can avoid the triple dip recession. Indications from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well respected think tank, were certainly positive and suggest that the UK may just avoid recession by forecasting 0.1% growth for Q1 of 2013. It is certainly very finely balanced, however I am confident recession can be avoided and we may see a much needed boost for the pound as a result. Anyone with an interest in GBP/AUD should keep a keen eye on GDP released on the 25th April, a key day in my view.
Shorter term look out for Australian employment data overnight tonight, forecast to stay at 5.4% month on month, any deviation form the expected could cause volatility overnight. Also watch out for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) equivalent of the MPC in the US, as they will release their minutes from the Federal Reserves last interest rate meeting. This can influence investors risk appetite depending on the rhetoric from the minutes and with the AUD a favourite for currency investors it may cause market fluctuation for the AUD following its release at 19:00 BST.
To discuss the market trends and current data that might affect your particular currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 725353. I work for one of the UK’s longest standing independent brokers I am very confident I can undercut any price you have been offered. Should you wish to test the service or discuss the contracts we have available then please email me with a brief description of your current trade and I will happily provide you with a live quote. I can be reached by email on mgv@currencies.co.uk
Pound up against the Aussie. Short term predictions
Sterling has rallied nearly 1% against the Australian Dollar. Overnight the Bank of Japan increased stimulus as it aims to double the monetary base over two years through the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds, in a dramatic shift aimed at ridding Japan of the deflation that has dogged the country for almost two decades. This is a bold move for the new central governor Haruhiko Kuroda and may shift investors risk apetite. As a result the JPY has devalued and with the Yen often heaviliy involved in currency speculators risk portfolio this may create significant shifts in currency trends over the coming days creating volatility for the safe haven currencies (historically USD and CHF) and many riskier assets such as the AUD, NZD, ZAR and EUR. Watch out for some big shifts over the next few working days, and possibly some unexpected opportunities for AUD buyers.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP posts gains but Euro sees losses on volatile days trading
Sterling exchange rates posted small gains against the Australian dollar as the Euro experienced heavy losses bringing levels close to 1.24. As my colleagues have discussed in previous posts, the uncertainty surrounding Cyprus has created a great deal of market volatility and uncertainty heading into a busy trading week. With the Australian dollar still classified as a riskier currency this may well cause some big swings for the Aussie as investors will often shy away from the dollar in times of uncertainty. Tomorrows minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia may also lead to some short term volatility and anyone with an interest in the Australian dollar should watch out for this release for any insight as to the banks stance on monetary policy, any hint towards future interest rate cuts and we could see the dollar weaken, likewise if the bank have not discussed monetary loosening then watch for dollar strength.
As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to take advantage of spikes as they can often be short lived. Our aim is do maximise our clients positions and to keep them up do date with market trends. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to hear more about the currency service we provide then I would be happy to discuss the service in full. We can offer you contracts ranging from standard spot and forwards to stop/loss and limit orders, we also have a rate alert service ensuring we will contact you when a particular rate becomes available.
Having worked in the industry for a number of years I know what a difference a fraction on the exchange can make. Whether your are emigrating, importing a luxury car, settling an invoice or diversifying your portfolio then our currency service may well be of use to you. To find out more please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.
