Tag Archives: pound

US Interest Rate decision key for GBPAUD currency exchanges!

The Federal Reserve bank in the United States will unleash their latest Interest Rate decision  tomorrow evening at 7pm UK time. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is looking precarious as we approach this latest news, but also news from the Bank of England this week. Overall I would not be surprised to see the Australian dollar weaker as the market finds that betting on the US dollar’s ascendancy is much more interesting than backing the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar is holding one of the higher interest rates of the leading global economies at 1.5%, with a hike in the US bringing them to just 0.25% below, the expectation is that the Australian dollar will be sold off as investors adjust their positions to reflect more of a holding of the US dollar, believing the US dollar will rise further in the future.

If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars in the future Thursday might see some better rates but should the Fed decide to hold off raising rates, we could see the US dollar weaken which would see the Aussie gain strength. The Aussie could also find favour against a weaker pound which is having a very tough week following the unexpected outcome from the UK election.

Should you be considering buying or selling Australian dollars in the future current evens are very important, Aussie buyers will I am sure be very keen to try and get above the magic 1.70 mark again although of course they could easily find themselves getting worse should events take an unexpected turn as they can!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you!

Markets await news from the U.K elections – This will impact AUD/GBP exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

As we await news on just how the U.K election will pan out, Sterling has remained fairly flat against the Australian Dollar throughout trading today. It had looked like Sterling would be pushing up and above the 1.75 (0.5714) mark in the past week or so but what we have seen is a slight shift in momentum and the Labour party clawing back seats in the polls.

This has caused uncertainty for the Pound which has led to the Australian Dollar making back ground against it and coming down to test the 1.70 (0.5882) level.

It does appear that if you trust the bookies odds (which were totally wrong for the referendum) we will be seeing a conservative majority and that will more than likely lead to Sterling strength, but we must also bear in mind that this will also increase the likelihood of a harder brexit so the markets could actually see this the other way and push the Pound back down.

All in all we have a very interesting 24 hours ahead for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling or to send Australian Dollars back into Pounds, as we could face a lot of volatility and some fantastic trading opportunities in the hours ahead.

if you are in the position where you may need to make an exchange either in the imminent future or the coming weeks and months then it makes sense to have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

I have been helping clients make large exchanges to and from Australia for nearly ten years now and make sure that not only do they get the very best exchange rate but they are also kept well aware of market movements in their favour or against them.

If you feel I would be of assistance to you then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch and help you put together a plan of action for your exchange.

London terror attack – 3/06/17 (Joshua Privett)

Once more on this website I must report a further terror attack on UK soil, the third since March. At the time of writing 7 people have been confirmed dead, in addition to the three attackers who have been shot dead by police, and 48 people are currently in hospital receiving treatment.

Discussing currency in these situations seems trivial, but the effect of this attack on the Pound’s value must be addressed, and the potential impact this may have on anyone wishing to use Pounds to buy Australian Dollars, or anyone wishing to purchase them using Australian Dollars in the near future.

Given patterns around the recent spate of horrific attacks, once the attack is proven to be contained, any noticeable reaction from currency markets recedes as well.

As this act of senseless violence has occured over a weekend, currency markets were not open to initially react to the news, and, as such, it is unlikely that we will see any direct reaction from currency markets once they reopen come Monday morning on GBP/AUD. Particularly since Theresa May has confirmed that the election will continue as scheduled.

With little economic data to be released this week, buying and selling Australian Dollar rates of exchange will largely be governed by the twists and turns of the UK election. This is because there is expected by be no change in the Australian interest rate decision overnight on Tuesday.

The most recent polls were released over the weekend and I have included them below.

Comres:
  • Conservatives 47
  • Labour 35
  • Comres adds that PM May’s personal approval rating has turned negative for the first time since becoming prime minister
Survation
  • Conservatives 40
  • Labour 39
  • The previous poll from this lot (back on May 21) showed a 12 point lead fro the Cons.
YouGov
  • Conservatives 42
  • Labour 38
  • Prior YouGov poll had the PM with 7 point lead, down to 4 now
  • You Gov project a 14 seat majority for May’s party
ORB
  • Conservatives 45
  • Labour 36
ICM
  • Conservatives 45
  • Labour 34
  • Cons ahead by 9 compared with 14 in this poll a week ago

 

Whilst there is still a large difference between the polling companies’ results, the momentum gained for Labour is clear, and this is why the Pound has been depreciating against the Australian Dollar recently.

With these last minute polls still showing a fair bit of difficulty for the Conservatives to achieve their Parliamentary majority, this uncertainty should continue to harm the Pound in the run-up to the election. I would expect a fairly gradual deterioration in GBP/AUD in the run-up to, and including, Thursday’s polling.

As such, anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement may be wise to secure their currency within a short period of the opening bell on Monday to avoid potentially swallowing distasteful rates later on in the week. 

I work for one of the longest running currency brokerages in the UK,  and I have never had an issue securing more competitive exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement. This is useful if you require currency later on this year, but do not wish to gamble on the election result improving your situation or making your transfer more expensive.

You can contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I am able with a quote and a tailored strategy for any of your upcoming transfers.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate consolidates above 1.70, will the Pound manage to hit 1.80 this year? (Joseph Wright)

The price movement between the Pound and the Aussie has been interesting today, and may offer those planning a currency conversion between the pair with a indication of what to expect in future.

Sterling exchange rates came under pressure across the board during today’s trading session as late last night a YouGov poll suggested that Theresa May’s (the current UK prime Minister) Conservative Party may lose its majority in the upcoming election, and this political uncertainty is weighing on the Pounds value as is often the case.

Interestingly the currency didn’t come under pressure against the Aussie Dollar, as the currency appears to be under pressure at the moment which leads me to believe that if the gap between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party in the UK widens, we can expect to see the Pound make up ground on the Aussie Dollar and maybe even breach the 8-month high of 1.7635 it hit recently and trade towards 1.80.

The Aussie Dollar has come under pressure since China was downgraded by Moody’s earlier this month, as the Chinese economy appears to be slowing which isn’t a positive sign for the Australian economy due to the two countries close trading ties.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate continues to fall over UK economic outlook concerns, will the downward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate fell into the 1.73’s earlier today as the downward pressure upon the Pound continued.

Despite still trading in the 1.70’s the GBP/AUD pair has fallen from its 8-month high as the currency is falling against all major currency pairs, with the drop against some currencies being steeper than others with GBP/EUR’s fall down to a 5-week low bring one of the standout movers.

The main reason for the softening to Sterling’s value can be attributed to the Inflation rate within the UK and its knock on effects.

The rate of Inflation has risen to its highest level since September 2013 and this is significant as it’s come at a time when UK wage growth is stagnating. Inflation is growing at a higher rate than wage growth which is likely to negatively impact consumer spending within the UK, which is an important aspect of the UK economy.

This situation looks gloomy for the Pound moving forward as the Bank of England has ruled out a rate hike in the short term future, especially with a general election just around the corner.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GBP/AUD rate dip below 1.70 in the short term future, unless there’s a reversal in the steep rise of living costs within the UK.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Pound recover its losses against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has ended the week with two consecutive days of falls vs the Australian Dollar after a difficult day of UK economic data on Thursday.

The Quarterly Inflation Report showed that inflation is predicted to hit 2.8% with average earnings hitting just 2%. Therefore, this means that the cost of living is rising whilst wages are falling.

This led to the Pound falling against the Australian Dollar after making consistent gains for a number of weeks. Indeed, compared to a month ago when rates were struggling to break past 1.60 we have now seen GBPAUD rates trade as high as 1.77 during the course of this week.

However, it appears at least for the moment that the positive run for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has now come to an end.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release their latest minutes from their previous meeting.

With the central bank having kept interest rates on hold for the 9th consecutive month recently I think we could see a small weakening for the Aussie Dollar vs the Pound if the RBA confirm that there is little appetite for any change in interest rates.

During this month with the Tories set to dominate the general election I think this could result in further stability for the UK which in turn could help the Pound challenge towards 1.80 to buy Australian Dollars.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since for almost 15 years for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank  but also help you with various options including forward contracts which allow you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

To find out more information or a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Australian Dollar finding life tough as risk sentiment decreases (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar lose ground against numerous currencies over the past week or so as we have experienced a slight sell off in the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

Investors are finding life tricky at present, with the goings on in America and various economies reporting fairly bad figures of late, it does seem that we are seeing an unwinding of carry trades along with a general sell off, leading to Australian Dollar weakness.

Carry trading is a process whereby an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate and then shifts that money over to a currency with a very high interest rate, making their return on the difference. As you start to see the Australian Dollar weaken off you also get this gather momentum as investors reverse or unwind these positions to protect themselves from adverse movement and losing the profit they have built up.

We have very little left to come out in terms of economic data from Australia for the rest of the trading week but for those looking to carry out an exchange involving GBP you should be aware that today the U.K has what has been touted as ‘Super Thursday’ where they will have the release of Industrial and Manufacturing production, trade balance, the Bank of England interest rate, inflation report and growth estimates so be prepared for some fairly volatile exchange rate movements as the day progresses.

If you have any Australian Dollars to buy or indeed sell then it is well worth getting in touch with us here at Australian Dollar Forecast. Not only to we aim to provide up to date market information but we also all work for on of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the U.K. Even if you are based in Australia we can still help you too, and we pride ourselves on being able to better the prices of all of our competitors, along with offering a high level of customer service too.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) if you would like to get a quote to compare with your current brokerage, or indeed your bank and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I  will be in touch as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar losing ground against most major currencies (Daniel Wright)

We have seen the Australian Dollar lose ground against most major currencies this week and this trend may well continue as the week progresses.

With Donald Trump bringing in new tariff’s for Canada on trade this has led to concerns that we may see a similar situation for many other economies which could really put further pressure on the Australian Dollar as it would initially be seen as a negative for the Australian economy.

We had slightly weaker than expected inflation data for Australia earlier in the week, and we have more to be released tomorrow and although markets are expecting a small improvement, I would be surprised to see any large gains for the Australian Dollar this week as I feel the trend is well and truly against it at present.

Tomorrow we also have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures over in the U.S and this can have an impact on all major currencies as it has an affect on global attitude to risk. GDP is essentially how much the economy grew or shrank during a specific period and the reason the U.S figure is so key for the Australian Dollar is due to the fact that it will be key for their decision on their next interest rate change, and should the U.S hike interest rates again I would expect to see the Australian Dollar weaken further.

If you put yourself in the position of a large investor, you would more than likely prefer to hold funds in the less risky USD rather than the more volatile AUD and interest rates for the two are getting closer, the closer they get the larger the flow out of AUD and into USD, hence making the AUD weaker over time.

If you have the need to buy or sell Australian Dollars for emigration, property or business requirements and you would like my assistance then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk .I regularly have clients contact me who find that not only can they save money and get a better rate than their current provider but also that our service is exceedingly smooth too.

For how long will the GBPAUD rate remain above 1.70?

The pound to Australian dollar rate has risen above 1.70 which is presenting an excellent short term opportunity for clients with an Australian dollar buying requirement in the future. Sterling is potentially about to hit a brick wall with the UK elections but more worrying might be the likelihood of an interest rate cut in Australia. Next week is the RBA Interest Rate decision which could see a much weaker Aussie dollar so if you have Aussies to sell next week might be something to avoid!

I am expecting a very busy period in the next two weeks on GBPAUD exchange rates as investors get close to understanding just what the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) plan in the future for their interest rates. Whilst unlikely they will actually make a cut there is a real chance the RBA will be looking to see a weaker Australian dollar and if there remain concerns over the economy, particularly jobs, the RBA will want to cut sooner than later.

Overall levels to buy Australian dollars are now much higher than many believed a few weeks ago. The shock announcement of the snap UK General Election has seen the pound rise but this is unlikely to last too long. Typically a General Election leads to market uncertainty which can see a currency weaker. I have worked in this industry for almost ten years and this will be the third General Election I have seen. The last two both saw a weaker pound in the run-up to the vote which might be an opportunity for clients selling Australian dollars to buy the pound.

If you have a transaction in the coming weeks and months then making some plans sooner rather than later is the best way to navigate the uncertainty and volatility we are likely to experience. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch to get an overview of the market and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about the market and all of your options.

Pound to Australian Dollar hits 3 month high (Tom Holian)

The rate to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling has hit its highest level since January as fears are increasing that the Chinese are showing signs of a slowdown.

This has caused the commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand to weaken against the Pound creating some excellent opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling.

There is a lot of economic data coming out overnight from China including Imports, Exports and Trade Balance data which have shown signs of slowing down.

Also, overnight we have the release of Australian unemployment figures so if both data sets are negative we could see the Pound make even further gains against the Aussie Dollar.

Furthermore, with political tensions increasing in the Middle East this has caused a concern to global investors who have been selling off the Australian Dollar in favour of safe haven currencies including the US Dollar and Swiss Franc.

If tensions continue to rise I would expect the AUD to suffer vs the Pound so if you need to make a transfer to Australia then it would be worth keeping a close eye on what is happening politically.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with various contract types.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk