Tag Archives: pound

Australian dollar is much weaker and could get even weaker! GBPAUD and EURAUD forecast

The Australian dollar is much weaker overall as concerns grow over the strength of the Chinese economy and also other currencies become more favourable to hold. The expectation is that for the Australian dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia there will be no interest rate rise any time soon and this will see the currency weaker.

The Australia dollar is a beneficiary of improved global confidence particularly in China. China is a major economy and the strength of the Australian dollar is widely attributable to the strength and weakness of the Chinese economy. Overall impressions for the future centre around a weaker Chinese economy as evidenced by the concerns over the stock market in China which has a large public following

Concerns about the possibly negative outlook on the Chinese economy has troubled the market and this has seen Aussie weaker as a wider reflection of stability in the region.

With sterling finding much favour as the UK government makes gentle progress on Brexit and the Euro also finding form on the back of progress with German coalition talks, GBPAUD and EURAUD have both risen hitting 1.7556 and 1.5697 on the interbank rates. This is presenting excellent fresh opportunities on both currency pairs which should be monitored very closely for potential buyers.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars, global events are increasingly driving the Aussie exchange rates, as opposed to domestic news in the Australian economy. Trying to anticipate and monitor the current outlook is no easy feat but it does seem like for now the Aussie will remain weaker.

Longer term trends could easily see the Aussie regain back these losses but for Aussie holders this could prove an expensive gamble. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from and assisting you.

Sterling to Aussie Dollar rate plunges after BoE rate hike, what happened? (Joseph Wright)

This afternoon at lunchtime the Bank of England hiked interest rates by the expected 0.25 basis points, although in the immediate aftermath the Pound fell dramatically against every major currency pair.

At the time of writing the Pound to Aussie rate has fallen by 2% with the GBPAUD rate now sitting at 1.6917 and the AUDGBP rate sitting at 0.5910.

This afternoons move has come as a surprise to the markets, as usually when the base rate increases the underlying currency climbs. The opposite has happened today though as it appears that prior to the move by the Bank of England the hike was priced into the market, and the commentary afterwards was a bit more bearish than the Sterling bulls had hoped for.

It’s looking like there won’t be a particularly aggressive approach from the Bank of England regarding monetary policy moving forward, which is why we’ve seen the Pound lose so much value in such a short space of time.

There won’t be any further major economic announcements out of the UK tomorrow that are likely to move markets to such a great extent, although Australian Retail Sales data is coming out in the early hours of this morning which may impact the rates.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding any other short-term price movements between the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me. Moves such as today’s can result in large differences in a currency transfer outcome so being aware of these moves can be highly beneficial.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

 

Sterling – Australian Dollar rate flies through 1.70 – Australian Dollar weakness and Sterling strength (Daniel Wright)

For a few weeks now I have had many clients waiting to be able to achieve the 1.70 mark for their exchange of Pounds into Australian Dollars and finally I have been able to give some of them the rate they have been waiting for.

Overnight on Tuesday, or Wednesday morning for those in Australia we had news that Australian inflation levels had dropped off to 1.8% from a predicted 2%, leading to the Australian Dollar weakening a little against most major currencies.

The reason a lower inflation figure usually leads to a currency dropping off is due to the fact that lower inflation figures decreases the chance of an interest rate hike. An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned so if the chance of that happening decreases then usually so does the value of the currency involved.

For those that are tracking GBP/AUD exchange rates, you received a second piece of good news on Wednesday morning (or evening for those in Australia) as we had U.K growth figures released and they too, were a little better than expected year on year.

We have seen GBP/AUD exchange rates creep up because of these two factors and they are now almost at the best exchange rate they have been at this year, as an example a £150,000 exchange into AUD now compared to a few months back will net you almost AUD 15,000 more!!

If you are in the position where you may wish to purchase or sell Australian Dollars in the coming days, weeks of months then this can be seen as a fantastic opportunity for you, with brexit still hanging over the head of the Pound there is always that chance it may drop back again at any time.

If you would like to check  that your current provider or bank  is getting you the most for your money then why not take advantage of a currency audit which I will be more than happy to do for you. Email me the price you have been quoted, the volume involved and what time you got this and I will get back to you and let you know if you are getting a good deal or if there is a great deal of money to be saved.

We are very transparent here, if your deal is great I will be honest with you and let you know just that, if it isn’t then I will let you know how much more you can get and how I can help you.

Should you wish to take advantage of this then you are welcome to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Bad news for the Pound pushes it lower, are trade levels in the early 1.60’s on the horizon again? (Joseph Wright)

Despite some negative data being released down under in the early hours this morning, the Pound has still dropped against AUD throughout the day’s trading.

The worst Retail Sales figures in 4 and a half years were published this morning, as it turns out that Australian consumers are beginning to cut back on items such as food, clothing and furniture.

The reading for July was also revised down from the previous reading, meaning that the two drops in sales figures are the biggest back to back drop since 2010.

Despite this this disappointing data release the Pound has still fallen against the Aussie Dollar, whereas the majority of other major currency pairs have risen against the Aussie.

Sentiment surrounding the Pound took a knock today as ratings agency, Standard & Poors questioned whether the UK could withstand an interest rate rise, and it emerged that car sales in the UK are continuing to drop.

There has also been a lot of talk regarding UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s calamitous speech to the Conservative party conference on Wednesday.

Odd’s are increasing on her resignation and although I don’t expect any changes at number 10, I think any talk surrounding this matter could result in a weaker Pound which could push the GBP/AUD pair down towards the 1.60 mark.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Australian Dollar drop in value in the coming months? (Daniel Wright)

Many clients have been asking me recently where the Australian Dollar may head next, with no interest rate move on the cards in the near term and numerous global problems at present I feel that the Australian Dollar may get a little weaker in the coming months.

A recent article in the Sydney morning herald suggests that many feel the same. Much of the article is based around the U.S Dollar and Australian Dollar flows. The Federal Reserve in the States have hinted at a further three interest rate hikes in 2018 and many analysts still believe we will see very little movement on interest rates throughout 2018.

An interest rate hike is seen as positive for a currency and a cut is seen as negative, as a hike will make that currency more attractive to investors. On top of this, you tend to find that you can see a flow between USD/AUD when there are times of global issues. The Australian Dollar is perceived as a ‘riskier’ currency and the U.S Dollar still held in regard as safer haven currency.

As many regular readers will know, there are a huge amount of problems around the world at present, both in terms of economies around the world and politically too, I don’t see many of these going away anytime soon, so we may see the Australian  Dollar take a few knocks as and when there are further issues that crop up.

My personal opinion is that although the Australian economic data has been ok, the economy still isn’t flying and there is still an issue with house price inflation in many areas and that is a problem that is hard to resolve as the RBA are still not in the position to raise interest rates at present.

Overnight last night we saw extremely poor Retail Sales data for Australia, leading to Australian Dollar weakness overnight.

If you are in the position that you need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future then I can not only help you with getting the best rate on your exchange but also with the timing of your transfer.

Should you require assistance then I am always happy to provide you a quote against your current choice for exchanging money, along with having a discussion with you to tailor a game plan for how to approach the upcoming exchange.

If you would like me to get in touch with you then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

When will the RBA raise rates? (and how will this affect the pound to Aussie rate)

The pound to Australian dollar has become more comfortable above 1.70 lately but we are still having trouble sticking above it. My personal belief is that the pound to Australian dollar rate will rise higher through the 1.70’s as the lack of any interest rate cut down under, and the increased prospect of one in the UK, causes the rate to rise. I therefore think it could be many years before we see a rate hike in Australia and agree with some more recent commentators who state it will be 2019 not 2018 before we see the next hike.

The Australian dollar is already weaker as markets agree that any hike next year is less likely, the strength in growth and employment in the Australian economy is high but many question for how long it will last. With savings rates having dwindled in recent years Australians are having to save even more and this will impact consumer spending. The very strong housing market is a cause for concern but raising interest rates won’t necessarily help the boom, but it will make getting on the ladder even trickier for new home buyers and make mortgages more expensive.

Whilst I do not think the UK will raise rates as quick as many expect (some pencil in November) I do expected much increased rhetoric around the topic over the next couple of months and this could well send sterling higher. If you are looking to buy or sell Australian dollars this shift will not occur in a straight line, we will undoubtedly see a rather volatile path.

GBPAUD could easily rise to say 1.76 or 1.80 at the top end in the next two months before as UK rates expectations cool and the prospect of any Australian hikes become clearer, see the rate back into the lower 1.70’s or even sub 1.70 again.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars for pounds and wish to get some insight into market movements and strategy to maximise your currency exchange we can help with a personal service and excellent rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and discussing your situation.

Australian Dollar exchange rates have a volatile 24 hours – Lowe sees a bright outlook (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly turbulent time over the past 24 hours, with fairly large swings against most major currencies.

Leading up to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision over night the Australian Dollar initially gained ground. Janet Yellen, Chair of the Fed then announced that the U.S will aim to start cutting back its QE (Quantitative Easing)  program and that they still plan on an interest rate rise in the coming months.

This led to a little USD strength and weakness for the antipodean currencies (AUD,NZD and ZAR) as we saw investors shift funds out of riskier currencies and into the Dollar following this slightly more positive news.

Earlier today we then saw Governor of the RBA Philip Lowe comment to the American Chamber of Commerce in a speech he called ‘the next chapter’. Lowe was fairly positive about the economy going forward and this gave the Australian Dollar a minor boost back once again in a volaitle period for those that have Australian Dollars to buy or sell in the coming days, weeks or months ahead.

For anyone with an interest in GBP to AUD or AUD into GBP you should be aware of Prime Minister Theresa May speaking about Brexit tomorrow which may lead to a particularly volatile day for the Pound.

If you have a pending currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then it would be prudent to get in touch with me directly no matter who you were planning to use. I have had thousands of people contact me through this blog over the years that had planned to use their bank or their current broker and the vast majority have ended up using our company instead due to better exchange rates and a smooth and efficient customer service.

If you would like to get a free, no obligation quote to compare against what you are currently being offered then you can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your needs and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Australian Dollar to Pound exchange rate drops as Australian GDP data disappoints, will there be a reversal of the AUD/GBP trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Australian Dollar has recently strengthened quite considerably against the Pound, although the trend has been reversed this morning after Australian GDP figures failed to impress the markets enough for the bullish run to continue.

During the second quarter of this year the Australian economy grew at a rate of 0.8% which was in line with what economists were expecting, and it appears that the Aussie Dollar will need some more positive data to come out in order for the currency to once again reach its post-Brexit vote highs.

The Pound has been coming under pressure in recent weeks after fears surrounding the final ‘Brexit Bill’ cost have surfaced, as well as uncertainty surrounding how the Brexit negotiations are going so far with some suggesting they have got off to a bad start.

Yesterday data out of the UK showed that the services sector within the UK has hit an 11-month low which is important sector for the UK due to it accounting for around 80% of the UK economy. Despite this negative news the Pound is still climbing against the Aussie Dollar which to me demonstrates that the Aussie Dollar bullish run is potentially coming to an end.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling climbs against the Aussie Dollar as the RBA warns of strong currency putting pressure on Australian economy (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate hit 1.66 in the early hours of this morning, and this was the first time in over 2-weeks that we’ve seen the Pound trade this high.

The headline comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the early hours came in the form of a warning, saying that the ‘Aussie’s recent strength has been placing pressure on the Australian economy’ and this resulted in the selling off of AUD.

The RBA appears to be fairly neutral in its outlook for future growth after suggesting that forecasts for the Australian economy remain unchanged (currently at 3% annually).

The fall for the Aussie dollar came after data showed that sentiment within the Manufacturing sector strengthened, along with the positive move of 7% increase in the value of Iron Ore which has given AUD a boost.

It appears that the RBA would prefer a weaker Aussie Dollar and I think that those planning on converting Aussie Dollars into Pounds should consider the gains they’ve seen recently, and whether they think the Aussie can continue to strengthen at its current rate.

This Thursday is likely to be a busy day for Sterling exchange rates as a whole and I expect to see the GBP/AUD rate see volatility. Thursday is being billed as ‘Super Thursday’ and if you would like to discuss why in future detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Australian dollar predictions against sterling

Over the last two weeks the Australian dollar has been making inroads against the pound and GBPAUD exchange rates have plummeted 7 cents. To put this into monetary terms for any clients that are purchasing Australian dollars with pounds a 400,000 Australian dollar purchase will now cost just under an additional £10,000. However on the other hand for clients converting Australian dollars into pounds this is certainly something to smile about.

The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia gave no clear indication that the RBA will be  raising interest rates anytime soon however the minutes were seen as bullish as it is clear that the next move will be to follow the trend of other central banks and raise the base rate.

UK inflation data disappointed last week which has relieved some of the pressure the Bank of England were receiving. The Bank of England set an inflation goal of 2% and at present even with the drop, inflation sits at 2.6%. Many economists were predicting if inflation rose above 3% we would get clear direction from the Governor of the Bank of England and an interest rate hike early next year was likely. However with inflation now falling the chances of a rate hike have diminished.

Since the UK public decided to vote out of the EU, the pound has lost approximately 15% against all of the major currencies. Brexit negotiations I believe will continue to weigh down on the pound for the foreseeable future as I don’t believe a deal will be struck anytime soon in regards to the divorce settlement or the rights of EU citizens living in the UK.

Therefore for Australian dollar buyers purchasing currency on the back of a positive move would be my strategy as I do not foresee any substantial gains being made over the upcoming months. Australian dollar sellers may wish to take advantage of the 7 cent spike in their favour or should continue to monitor the market and try to covert in the 1.50s.

However Australian dollar sellers should be cautious as the National Bank of Australia believe the Australian dollar is overvalued which I actually agree with. At the moment currency investment continues to land on Australian shores due to the high interest rates.

The main data releases to look out for this week are UK GDP numbers Wednesday morning which are set to show a decline which could lead to further sterling weakness and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision Wednesday evening. It is unlikely the Fed will raise interest rates and I expect a neutral statement by Janet Yellen shortly after. This could lead to a further sell off of US dollars and the Australian dollar could benefit.

For people that are converting pounds and Australian dollars for the first time, it is essential that you get the very best exchange rates. If you have used a brokerage for many years or have been referred a brokerage I strongly recommend you compare rates to make sure you get the best price possible and therefore save money. This simple exercise takes two minutes and in the past I have saved clients hundreds and in some instances thousands of pounds.

My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.