Tag Archives: pound

Austrlian dollar forecast: Is the Austrlian dollar set to lose further value?

Last week yearly Australian inflation fell to 1.3%, when many market forecasters were predicting 1.8%. Lower global oil prices at the back end of 2018 is being labelled as the main contributor. Now that inflation has fallen, bookmakers are predicting that there is a 50% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will now cut interest rates next week. Last time yearly inflation dropped this low was in 2016 and former Governor Glenn Stevens cut interest rates. The question is, will Philip Lowe follow suit?

Over the years, when a central bank cuts interest rates we tend to see the currency devalue. Furthermore this can actually happen before the event as speculators begin to second guess the decision. For clients that are selling Australian dollars to buy a foreign currency short term, there is a strong argument to buy your currency sooner rather than later.

Australian dollar to sterling predictions

Even though the Australian dollar could face pressure in the upcoming weeks due to monetary policy decisions, sterling has problems of it’s own. The pound has lost momentum over the last 4 weeks once Theresa May accepted a 6 month extension to the Brexit process. At present the PM and the leader of the opposition continue to negotiate in London and the customs union debate is at the centre of the negotiations. Labour leaders Jeremy Corbyn wants to remain part of a customs union, where as for Theresa May this a red line she is not prepared to back down on.

Personally I believe the PM is running out of time. If she doesn’t want to take part in European elections a decision will have to be made very soon. Therefore I expect her to announce that the negotiations have failed and therefore are over and consequently will give MPs another vote in the commons to try and reach a majority. All in all, it doesn’t look good news for clients holding onto sterling.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are converting, your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Will the Australian dollar weaken this week?

The Australian dollar exchange rate has been trending lower in 2019 on the increased expectation that we will in the future see the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia cut their base interest rate. Numerous commentators have for now many months been commenting that we could soon see the RBA forced to take action against numerous global and domestic factors.

In Australia there has been a growing concern over Inflation levels which the RBA had targetted to see at 2-3% but has been averaging around 1.5%. To boost Inflation levels which are now at close to 10 year lows, the RBA might need to cut interest rates to help provide some stimulus to the economy.

Cutting interest rates by a central bank can do various things which can help an economy to grow. Firstly, it can make the currency cheaper to buy which can help the country to increase exports, thereby improving the economy. Secondly, it makes loans and borrowing less costly which can encourage business and consumers to spend more, thereby increasing economic activity.

The currency becomes less valuable from the cutting of interest rates in a similar fashion to the way a lower or higher rate of interest makes a particular savings account more or less attractive.

Interest rates are of importance on the Australian dollar and are a major factor in determining the relative strength or weakness of the currency. There is a growing expectation that we could in the future see the RBA cut rates which will see the currency weaker.

It is not just the domestic issues of a sluggish economy, it is also the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the more global problems and concerns which are relating to the economic outlook on global trade.

A key example is the ongoing Trade Wars and spat between China and also the US, this has seen global trade drop and with China being such a key partner to Australia, could continue to be a major factor.

With such global pressures on trade continuing, as evidenced by the United States Federal Reserve stating they will not be raising interest rates as soon as many thought earlier this year, the Australian dollar might continue to suffer from weakness, as it responds to continuing and ever-changing global shifts.

Australian dollar mildy firmer after RBA Meeting!

The Australian dollar has been mildy firmer after the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, kept their interest rates on hold overnight. The expectations for the RBA is to have moved their outlook to a slightly more dovish tone but overall they kept up their current viewpoint, which is essentially that they will keep interest rates on hold for now.

The RBA did cite increased global risks, which could lead to a lower economic outlook in the future. This might well prove indicative for future Australian dollar weakness, there is now increased expectations that the longer term future for the Australian currency remains subdued. However, for now, as the RBA are not directly forecasting a rate cut, the market is likely to err on the side of caution.

In other news overnight the latest Australian Retail Sales figures weighed slightly on the market, coming in slightly worse than expected. This could be another sign of what the future might hold and be an indicator that the Australian dollar might in the future be struggling.

Some of the downside risks for the currency include global events such as the Trade Wars with China, and also recession in Italy. With the IMF recently having downgraded global growth, we could see the Australian currency lose value longer term if global confidence does not improve.

I expect the Australian dollar to weaken longer term and think clients looking to sell the currency would be better to move sooner than later, to avoid the risk of any losses. The Australian currency is effectively a barometer of sentiments on global trade and with those sentiments likely to suffer further, it seems likely the currency will fall in the future.

Next week is a series of Australian releases, including Home Loans and also some Chinese data. With Chinese economic news weighing on the economic outlook for the region, clients with Australian dollars to sell might wish to take advantage of the more recent improvements and lock in their gains.

Thank you for reading and please let me know if you have a transfer that we might be able to help out with, or you wish to discuss.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Will next week’s vote on May’s Brexit deal cause movement for GBP/AUD?

The Pound has been trading within relatively thin volumes this week against most major currency pairs as the currency comes under pressure in the lead up to next week. On the 15th of this month, which is next Tuesday there will be a ‘meaningful vote’ on Prime Minister, Theresa May’s Brexit plan and much of the speculation this week revolves around that date.

The Australian Dollar, despite being the biggest loser in terms of currency throughout 2018 of the G10 countries, has actually been increasing in value over the past week as hopes of a agreement between the US and China over the trade war talks increase. There have been ongoing discussions recently between the two leading economies, and this is a positive for Australia as China is the country’s main trading partner.

So far this morning the Pound has got off to a poor start, as pressure builds in the lead up to next week’s vote, especially after the first planned vote was delayed as May was concerned of a major loss. The latest Brexit related update is that yesterday evening Parliament voted in a new amendment specifying that the government has 3-days to report back to the commons with its ‘plan B’ in the event that May loses next week.

Economic data is taking a back seat at the moment owing to the importance of UK politics at the moment, but it’s worth being aware that on Friday there will be UK GDP figures released at 9.30am with growth of 0.1% expected. I would expect to see a drop in the Pounds value if this figure disappointing especially if the figure shows a negative figure.

If you wish to be updated and to plan around what could be a busy week for the GBP/AUD pair, do feel free to register your interest with us.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Australian unemployment figures due out tomorrow – Trade wars still key

Tomorrow we have the release of Australian unemployment figures and expectations are for the unemployment figures to have dropped off a little from 5% to 5.1% for October. This would be in stark contract to the latest release in New Zealand where the release came out at 3.9% recently, the best unemployment figures seen there since 2008.

Should the figure have risen a little as analysts are expecting then we may see a little weakness for the Australian Dollar in early trading on Wednesday, but in my own opinion I feel that political issues around the world are still the most important factor for the Australian Dollar against most major currencies.

First and foremost we have Donald Trump and his trade wars with China, one moment it looks like Trump is willing to compromise and broker a deal with his Chinese counterpart and then in the next breath he seems to go back into attack mode, aiming to lower tariffs for the U.S and to heap lots of them on China. With China being a major importer of Australian goods and services and a large volume of tourist dollars spent in Australia any move from Trump that is seen as negative for China tends to weaken the Australian Dollar and any positive vibes that come from the talks can give the Australian Dollar strength.

For anyone that has an interest in Sterling against the Australian Dollar, buying or selling then the next 36 hours are key. A Brexit deal appears to be edging ever closer however both sides are ‘cautiously optimistic’ which suggests that although a deal could be initially agreed by chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s latest deadline of tomorrow evening, if that does happen then GBP/AUD should surge through the 1.80 level however should talks fall through then we may be looking at trading closer to 1.76.

If you are in the position that you need to exchange Australian Dollars into or out of any major currency and you would appreciate my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you. Not only could I act as your eyes and ears on the market but we pride ourselves on getting the very top rates of exchange too. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) for a no obligation chat about your current position and I will get in touch with you personally. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask to be put through to Daniel Wright, quoting Australian Dollar Forecast.

RBA interest rate decision tonight to impact Australian Dollar exchange rates – Positive Brexit news helps the Pound make gains against Australian Dollar

In terms of Australian Dollar news, all eyes will be on the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement overnight tonight. One of the key factors that has led to Australian Dollar weakness over the past few months has been the fact that interest rates have remained static at a record low now for 26 months.

With other economies such as the U.S gradually raising interest rates we have seen a huge flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S dollar as investors seek a better rate of return in what is perceived as a safer and more stable currency.

Historically a higher interest rate has strengthened a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors. It is now expected that due to the spiralling household debt and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne dropping off significantly in the past 12 months, an interest rate hike may only add pressure to the economy, so the RBA may remain reluctant to make any bold moves for the time being.

The rate is unlikely to change tonight but the rate statement will be key, as speculation on any future changes will move the markets accordingly.

We have seen a slight uplift in the value of the Pound against the Australian Dollar in the past week or so, this has been mainly down to apparent Brexit progress and the U.K seemingly edging closer to an initial deal with the EU.

As many regular readers will know the Australian Dollar exchange rate against the Pound is fairly susceptible to Brexit news, and the fact that things are looking up for the U.K negotiations team has led to strength for the Pound.

All in all this is an important time for the Australian Dollar, with trade wars between Trump and China seeming to progress, interest rates remaining static and for those looking to carry out an exchange involving GBP having Brexit to contend with too it really is vital that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

If you would like my assistance then I have helped thousands of people buy or sell Australian Dollars for well over a decade and I will be happy to have a chat with you to see if I can assist you too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to have a no obligation chat to discuss a pending transaction with you. Not only should I be able to help you achieve a better rate of exchange than you are currently being offered but I would like to think our level of service is second to none too.

 

RBA interest rate decision key for AUD movements this week

Tomorrow we have the release of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision and possibly more importantly the RBA rate statement.

There are no expectations of any interest rate changes this time around but what will be key is the tone of the RBA in their monetary policy statement. The Australian economy has shown small signs of growth and with that we would expect a slightly more positive tone from the RBA, but I would personally be surprised to see a nod towards any imminent change to interest rates as there is still an issue with rising house prices and high household debt. Not to mention the on-going trade wars between China and the U.S that have been regularly covered on this site.

Interest rates can be key to the value of a currency and even the mere speculation of a rate hike can lead to that currency gaining strength, so should the RBA suggest that a hike is getting closer then you could expect to see the Australian Dollar gain a little value in Tuesday’s trading.

The rate decision dominates market news out for Australia this week but there are a number of other releases around the globe that may still impact Australian Dollar exchange rates. For those tracking GBP/AUD we currently have the Conservative party conference on until Wednesday in the U.K along with Brexit which could throw up anything at any time. Anyone following EUR/AUD will be keeping a keen eye on the Italian debt and budget issues that are creeping into the media and for those with an interest is USD/AUD the Non -farm payroll data due out in the states at the end of the trading week on Friday will be one to watch.

Non-Farm payroll data measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment in the states and can have an impact on all major currencies as it will effect global attitude to risk.

If you have a pending Australian Dollar exchange to make and you would like assistance with it, both in terms of getting the most for your money and moving it over securely then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch.

UK GDP gives the pound a boost vs Australian dollar

This morning at 9.30am UK Gross Domestic Product numbers were revised to 0.2% from 0.1% for quarter 1 which has given the pound a boost against the Australian dollar. The Bank of England in recent weeks have been hinting that an interest hike could occur as early as August and the improvement in GDP certainly helps the cause. For Australian dollar buyers rates have improved by 0.5%.

Another reason why the pound has been making progressive gains against the Australian dollar is that the Aussie has been weakening due to the trade war between the US and China. The US is Australia’s most important defence ally and China the most important trade partner, therefore Australia are stuck between a rock and a hard place. The theory behind it is that further tensions will put further pressure on the Australian dollar and therefore I would expect GBPAUD to break through 1.80.

In other news the EU summit is now over, and the message from the EU is that the UK need to make progression fast. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has called a meeting at her Cheques country side retreat,  and the full cabinet will attend. The rumour on the market is that Theresa May could announce a soft approach which will be outlined in her white paper which should be released early July. I expect this may give the pound a small boost.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Hawkish Bank of England comments push the Pound higher, will GBP/AUD breach 1.80 again soon?

Despite the Pound to US Dollar rate trading at a 7-month low against the US Dollar, the currency has actually been boosted against most major currency pairs today.

The reason for the boost to the Pound to Aussie Dollars value can be put down to the Bank of England’s comments and the voting pattern of the Bank of England members. The Aussie Dollar lost a lot of value against the Pound today which is why the focus of this blog is on that particular pair.

There are now 3 members of the Bank of England that wish to increase interest rates in the UK, and this is one of the reasons for today’s boost to Sterling exchange rates. The highest the GBP/AUD pair have hit today is 1.7979 although the pair have since slipped off which to me demonstrates that there may be resistance at the 1.80 mark as we’ve previously seen.

There isn’t expected to be any rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia until next year, so I do think that the Pound will climb against AUD should the hints at a rate hike later in the year from the BoE materialise.

With a quiet end to the week in terms of data I’m expecting to see AUD exchange rates driven by sentiment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar predicted to rise as global economy picks up

The Australian Dollar has been strengthening in recent weeks, with the GBP to AUD exchange rate being a good example of how much AUD has strengthened after the rate has dropped from around 1.85 to around 1.75 over the last few months.

A number of analysts have begun to adopt a hawkish outlook for the Aussie Dollar moving forward, and the HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand is the most recent key figure to share this view. His name is Paul Bloxham and he’s cited the largest increase in 6 years for the counties GDP as a key indicator as to the health of the economy.

A global pick up will benefit the Aussie Dollar due to its export driven economy, but I also think its important that our readers are aware of the importance of the countries services sector as its now more important to Australia than its mining sector.

Next week on Thursday there will be a number of key releases out of Australia, mostly covering the health of the countries employment sector. If you would like to plan around this event do feel free to register your interest with me.

The economy is likely to remain resilient in the face of trade wars breaking out, due to its close trading relationship with China. One downside though is that the RBA doesn’t plan on hiking interest rates until next year, meaning that the currency may lose some of its competitive edge.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.