Tag Archives: rate

Australian Dollar loses ground against most major currencies as trade war tension rises

Australian Dollar exchange rates have dropped away against all major currencies in treading today as tensions between the U.S and China rose once again over the weekend.

The Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar topped the weakest major currencies of the day and much of this can be pinned down to the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

As many regular readers will be aware any heightened tensions between the U.S and China can lead to weakness for the Australian Dollar, as the Australian economy can be susceptible to bad news from China.

 RBA meeting minutes tomorrow morning

We have seen a slight improvement in certain areas of the Australian economy recently, however most analysts do not believe that there has been enough to warrant a change in stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding any interest rate changes. Interest rates have remained stable in Australia for a long time now and this is also another reason why the Australian Dollar has lost ground against a number of major currencies over the course of the year.

An higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors as it means they are offered a greater level of return for their money, and with other central banks such as the Federal Reserve in the U.S raising rates on numerous occasions over the past year or so the Australian Dollar has been somewhat left behind.

Should the RBA take a more positive tone in their meeting minutes tomorrow then we may see a little strength back for the Australian Dollar, should their stance remain the same then focus will be back on any political news, such as the trade wars and for those that have an interest in the Australian Dollar against the pound then Brexit and Theresa May will be key.

Should you have the need to buy or sell a large volume of Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance then you are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to contact you personally.

 

Australian unemployment figures due out tomorrow – Trade wars still key

Tomorrow we have the release of Australian unemployment figures and expectations are for the unemployment figures to have dropped off a little from 5% to 5.1% for October. This would be in stark contract to the latest release in New Zealand where the release came out at 3.9% recently, the best unemployment figures seen there since 2008.

Should the figure have risen a little as analysts are expecting then we may see a little weakness for the Australian Dollar in early trading on Wednesday, but in my own opinion I feel that political issues around the world are still the most important factor for the Australian Dollar against most major currencies.

First and foremost we have Donald Trump and his trade wars with China, one moment it looks like Trump is willing to compromise and broker a deal with his Chinese counterpart and then in the next breath he seems to go back into attack mode, aiming to lower tariffs for the U.S and to heap lots of them on China. With China being a major importer of Australian goods and services and a large volume of tourist dollars spent in Australia any move from Trump that is seen as negative for China tends to weaken the Australian Dollar and any positive vibes that come from the talks can give the Australian Dollar strength.

For anyone that has an interest in Sterling against the Australian Dollar, buying or selling then the next 36 hours are key. A Brexit deal appears to be edging ever closer however both sides are ‘cautiously optimistic’ which suggests that although a deal could be initially agreed by chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s latest deadline of tomorrow evening, if that does happen then GBP/AUD should surge through the 1.80 level however should talks fall through then we may be looking at trading closer to 1.76.

If you are in the position that you need to exchange Australian Dollars into or out of any major currency and you would appreciate my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you. Not only could I act as your eyes and ears on the market but we pride ourselves on getting the very top rates of exchange too. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) for a no obligation chat about your current position and I will get in touch with you personally. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask to be put through to Daniel Wright, quoting Australian Dollar Forecast.

RBA interest rate decision tonight to impact Australian Dollar exchange rates – Positive Brexit news helps the Pound make gains against Australian Dollar

In terms of Australian Dollar news, all eyes will be on the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement overnight tonight. One of the key factors that has led to Australian Dollar weakness over the past few months has been the fact that interest rates have remained static at a record low now for 26 months.

With other economies such as the U.S gradually raising interest rates we have seen a huge flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S dollar as investors seek a better rate of return in what is perceived as a safer and more stable currency.

Historically a higher interest rate has strengthened a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors. It is now expected that due to the spiralling household debt and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne dropping off significantly in the past 12 months, an interest rate hike may only add pressure to the economy, so the RBA may remain reluctant to make any bold moves for the time being.

The rate is unlikely to change tonight but the rate statement will be key, as speculation on any future changes will move the markets accordingly.

We have seen a slight uplift in the value of the Pound against the Australian Dollar in the past week or so, this has been mainly down to apparent Brexit progress and the U.K seemingly edging closer to an initial deal with the EU.

As many regular readers will know the Australian Dollar exchange rate against the Pound is fairly susceptible to Brexit news, and the fact that things are looking up for the U.K negotiations team has led to strength for the Pound.

All in all this is an important time for the Australian Dollar, with trade wars between Trump and China seeming to progress, interest rates remaining static and for those looking to carry out an exchange involving GBP having Brexit to contend with too it really is vital that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

If you would like my assistance then I have helped thousands of people buy or sell Australian Dollars for well over a decade and I will be happy to have a chat with you to see if I can assist you too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to have a no obligation chat to discuss a pending transaction with you. Not only should I be able to help you achieve a better rate of exchange than you are currently being offered but I would like to think our level of service is second to none too.

 

GBP/AUD exchange rates – Brexit and trade wars will be the main drivers in my opinion

So far the Pound has had a fairly quiet start to the trading week but all eyes will be on the EU summit today in Salzburg, it is during this conference that we will expect Brexit to be discussed in more detail and this is the type of situation where snippets of news and rumours may hit the wires at any time, leading to Sterling volatility. This volatility may create good buying or selling opportunities depending on the news so if you have a fairly imminent currency exchange to carry out it is well worth contacting me today so that I can keep you fully aware of the latest market movements,

There are officially 191 days to go until Brexit will more than likely be official, and there will be plenty of market movement from now until the lead up to March 2019.

There are plans for a further summit in October and then an extraordinary EU summit is pencilled in for November, and this is where at present we would expect a final deal to be thrashed out.

Towards the end of this month we also have the Conservative party conference on 30th September which may also be one to watch, with Theresa May still seemingly under a little pressure any further negative news surrounding her position may weaken Sterling exchange rates.

In terms of economic data to come out this week, we have Retail Sales figures tomorrow morning at 09:30am and analysts expectations are for a slight drop off in the Retail sector so do be cautious of this release tomorrow if your currency requirement is imminent.

Personally I still feel that Brexit news is going to be key to where the Pound heads next and unfortunately the unpredictable nature of these discussions and the fact that you just do not know which way this is going to head next makes it extremely difficult to know where Sterling exchange rates will be in the coming weeks.

On the Australian Dollar side we have Donald Trump and trade wars that are still very much impacting global attitude to risk, when Trump and China lock horns you tend to see Australian Dollar weakness and when things start to settle the Australian Dollar is fighting back.

The rest of this week is quiet for economic data that may impact the Australian Dollar so I feel that most movements will be based on attitude to risk and political issues.

If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction I feel that there is more chance of GBP/AUD going up in the next few days than coming down.

Should you not be of a gambling nature and you want to remove the risk or your currency exchange costing a lot more than you had budgeted for then the sensible option may be to look into booking something sooner rather than later as we enter the final stages of Brexit talks. There are a number of contract options that we have available to protect you including a forward contract, stop loss or limit order. If you would like further information on any of theses contract types, or you would like to discuss a potential exchange in more detail with one of our brokers here then please feel free to call our trading floor on (+441494 725353) or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Australian Dollar still weakens as ASX falls due to U.S-China trade tensions

The Australian Dollar has had another fairly tough week against most major currencies, with the main reason being put down once again to the growing trade tensions between the U.S and China that do not appear to be going away soon.

These tensions are also weighing on the Australian share market, with commodities prices losing value the higher the tensions are.

U.S proposals are still not being taken well by China and the threats from China to take countermeasures are merely adding to global investors steering away from the perceived risk of the Australian Dollar and moving into safer haven currencies.

I have personally felt that the Australian Dollar would be in for a tough time for a while now, it is still managing to hold it’s ground at the moment with everything being taken into account, but I do feel that the issues with China will continue to weigh on the value of the Australian Dollar, not just the trade wars but also the growing levels of debt in the Chinese economy which have been a problem for quite some time now.

As many regular readers will know Chinese issues can impact the value of the Australian Dollar due to the sheer volume of goods and services that China import from Australia and also the huge amount of tourism that China provides to the Australian economy too.

All eyes will continue to be on Trump’s next move and also the U.S data release which is Non-Farm payroll data due out during trading on Friday. This release can impact global attitude to risk therefore can impact the value of the Australian Dollar too.

If you have a transaction to carry out involving exchanging Australian Dollars into any major currency, or buying Australian Dollars with any major currency then it would be well worth getting in touch with me directly.

You can contact me, Daniel Wright on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information on how I can help you and I will be happy to get in touch personally.

Australian Dollar weakens following RBA meeting minutes

Tuesday saw a fairly poor performance by the Australian Dollar against most major currencies, following the release of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision.

The minutes will basically show what was discussed at the meeting and how the RBA came to various decisions and i’m afraid the tone was fairly negative when reading through discussions and future fiscal plans.

The main areas of concern are the on-going trade wars between Donald Trump and China, as many regular readers of this site will be aware Chinese economic performance is fairly crucial to the performance of the Australian economy and the Australian Dollar. Not only do China import a huge amount of goods from Australia but they Chinese tourists make up a fairly large percentage of tourism in Australia.

The large sum of household debt at present in Australia is also of great concern to the RBA. Household debt is currently at worrying levels and what this means is that until this starts to drop back off it will be very difficult for the RBA to raise interest rates, and they did put a nod to this in the minutes.

Should they raise rates then we may see a large quantity of households go into default in Australia which would only escalate the economic problems even further, it does now appear that unless things improve then will not be seeing an interest rate hike for the foreseeable future which will more than likely hold the Australian Dollar back against other major currencies.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency and with other areas around the globe slowly raising their interest rates the Australian Dollar is in danger of being left behind.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like assistance with developing your strategy then you are more than welcome to get in touch. I have been helping clients move money internationally for over a decade and will be more than happy to have a chat with you about your specific needs.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will get in touch with you personally.

Positive tone from the RBA leads to Australian Dollar strength overnight

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly solid 24 hours or so following on from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision overnight.

No changes to interest rates were made and the interest rate level remained at 1.5% for the 23rd consecutive month, however it was the tone of the RBA that sparked the strength for the Australian Dollar against most majors.

The Australian Dollar has been one of the top performers of the trading day due to the outlook going forward. Currencies quite often move on speculation as well as fact, and many analysts had been expecting another fairly damp overview from the RBA meeting minutes.

What they actually received was a fairly positive report, citing that they now expect wage growth to improve and in fact that they felt that this had now troughed, and with reports of skills shortages in certain areas there is now an expectation from the RBA that wage growth will start to naturally rise and this should drag the economy up with it.

The Australian economy has had a mixed year so far, whilst there has been nothing to panic about the economic data that has been released has not exactly been fantastic, and throw into the mix the issues with Donald Trump with Trade Wars and the potential issue over North Korea earlier in the year and you can see just why the Australian Dollar has had a shaky 6 months.

Political tensions and larger global problems can also weaken the Australian Dollar as it is perceived as a ‘riskier’ currency, so global issues can decrease investors attitude to risk and therefore weaken the Australian Dollar when they occur.

There is little to come out in terms of Australian data in the coming days, but for those of you looking to carry out an exchange involving the Australian Dollar then non-farm payroll data in the U.S on Friday, which measure employment in America will be your next one to watch, as this can also impact global attitude to risk.

Should you need to carry out an exchange involving Australian Dollars and you would like to maximise your exchange then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly and I will be able to assit you with the timing of your transfer and ensuring that you get a great rate of exchange too. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.

Australian Dollar still open to risk sell off – Italy key at present and Chinese data rounds off the week

Italian politics have been one of the surprise movers for Australian Dollar exchange rates so far this week, with news of a breakdown in talks to form a Government coming out earlier in the week this has led to a rise in political instability which can impact investors and speculators attitude to risk.

With the Australian Dollar being deemed as a ‘riskier’ currency it is open to the elements of global political and economic issues, so situations like the one in Italy at present or even the on-going situation between Donald Trump and North Korea can have quite an impact on the value of the currency.

In times of uncertainty the Australian Dollar tends to weaken and when matters are settled you can see the Australian Dollar get a little stronger.

As regular readers  of the site will be aware it does not look like we will be seeing a rise in interest rates for Australia in the coming months which may keep the Australian Dollar out of fashion for a little while, especially when you note that the Federal Reserve over in the U.S are consistently raising rates and have been for a while now.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for a currency as it makes that currency more attractive to investors and a cut in interest rates can been seen as negative, so with the action seen from the U.S over the last year or so we are witnessing a flurry of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar which is perceived as a safer currency and now offers a better return as well.

We have minimal economic data out for Australia this week but we do have Chinese manufacturing tomorrow and Friday which may also impact the Australian Dollar as the week nears an end.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or even months ahead and you would like my assistance then I would be more than happy to help you personally. Not only can we better rates of other brokerages, well known apps or online platforms but we go the extra mile and offer assistance with both the timing of your transfer and getting the money where it needs to be safely and securely.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you with further information on our services.

Australian Dollar weakens a little as U.S Bonds continue to rise – Poor wage growth continues to be an issue

The Australian Dollar has lost a little ground in trading this week with U.S Bonds being partially to blame for the latest bout of Australian Dollar weakness. The U.S treasury yield has recently hit its highest level in 7 years and the reason this is impacting the Australian Dollar is that this is causing a large flow of money to come back out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making USD more expensive to buy and AUD a lot cheaper.

Over the past few years we have seen interest rates continue to rise in the U.S and remain stable in Australia and now that the USD is seen as a more attractive and less risky investment investors are starting to make their moves and to shift money back into the Dollar.

It does not look like we will be seeing a move from the RBA to raise interest rates until next year now which in my opinion will continue to hold the Australian Dollar back. Poor wage growth figures matching the 1.9% inflation figure released have shown that workers have not seen any growth in their wages for the past year and wage growth levels are currently sat very close to historic lows.

What this means is that the general consumer has less money in their pocket to spend and therefore this can impact the economy further. It also will hold back the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates as a move to hike rates now would put homeowners under pressure, so they really are stuck at the moment as to what is the right thing to do.

I believe the RBA will continue to monitor data before rushing anything, but the signs are there for me that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness in the coming months.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving Australian Dollars and any other major currency then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

RBA interest rate decision- Rates look set to continue on hold for the foreseeable future

If comments from the RBA last night are anything to go by it does look like we may be set for stable interest rates for the foreseeable future, despite the fact that we have had a record breaking period of policy stability in recent times.

For the last 19 meetings we have seen no rate movements which now dates back to a stable interest rate since August 2016, in the meantime we are starting to see interest rates for other economies around the world begin to rise, which is why the Australian Dollar has weakened against a number of major currencies over the past year or so.

For those that are not aware an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it will make that currency more attractive to investors, so due to the fact that we have not seen a rise in rates and one does not appear to be on the cards the Australian Dollar has started to lose value, making it cheaper to buy.

Until the RBA gain more confidence in wage growth  and labour market conditions in general then I feel that they will not budge on their stance, they admitted today that employment growth has slowed and that this is one of the reasons why they are still approaching any rate changes with caution.

Some analysts are now predicting that we may not see a move from the RBA until 2020 at the earliest, and with this in mind I personally feel that the Australian Dollar may be set to struggle in the months ahead, especially if you add into the picture falling commodity prices and a lower attitude to risk from investors at present.

If you have the need to make a large currency transfer involving the Australian Dollar, either buying or selling and you would like my assistance both with the timing and achieving the best rate when you come to lock in your rate then you are more than welcome to contact me personally.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you need to do and I will do my best to help you.