Tag Archives: rates

RBA interest rate decision key for AUD movements this week

Tomorrow we have the release of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision and possibly more importantly the RBA rate statement.

There are no expectations of any interest rate changes this time around but what will be key is the tone of the RBA in their monetary policy statement. The Australian economy has shown small signs of growth and with that we would expect a slightly more positive tone from the RBA, but I would personally be surprised to see a nod towards any imminent change to interest rates as there is still an issue with rising house prices and high household debt. Not to mention the on-going trade wars between China and the U.S that have been regularly covered on this site.

Interest rates can be key to the value of a currency and even the mere speculation of a rate hike can lead to that currency gaining strength, so should the RBA suggest that a hike is getting closer then you could expect to see the Australian Dollar gain a little value in Tuesday’s trading.

The rate decision dominates market news out for Australia this week but there are a number of other releases around the globe that may still impact Australian Dollar exchange rates. For those tracking GBP/AUD we currently have the Conservative party conference on until Wednesday in the U.K along with Brexit which could throw up anything at any time. Anyone following EUR/AUD will be keeping a keen eye on the Italian debt and budget issues that are creeping into the media and for those with an interest is USD/AUD the Non -farm payroll data due out in the states at the end of the trading week on Friday will be one to watch.

Non-Farm payroll data measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment in the states and can have an impact on all major currencies as it will effect global attitude to risk.

If you have a pending Australian Dollar exchange to make and you would like assistance with it, both in terms of getting the most for your money and moving it over securely then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch.

Australian Dollar weakness across the board – Political tensions globally weighing on AUD exchange rates

Today we have seen a bout of Australian Dollar weakness, seeing Australian Dollar exchange rates drop off against the board.

Commodity based currencies saw a sell off as tension rose between Iran and the U.S and we actually saw AUD/USD hit the lowest levels we have witnessed since June 2017 as a result of this.

Poor Australian Retail Sales also were no doubt a contributing factor to this move but it is no doubt that global uncertainty that we now have will impact the Australian Dollar in a negative way.

It has been my view for a while now that the Australian Dollar may be in for a poor year and situations like the latest one between America and Iran will only make matters worse. The Australian Dollar is still perceived as a ‘riskier’ currency so in times of global uncertainty you can see money pour out of the Australian Dollar ind into the so called ‘safer’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar and the Swiss Franc.

Developments regarding political tensions will continue to impact Australian Dollar exchange rates as the week progresses so if you have a large currency exchange to make involving the Australian Dollar then it is important to keep a keen eye on what is happening as it could impact your exchange rate considerably, this is an ever changing situation and we are getting news through 24 hours a day.

If you are in the position where you may need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future then a limit order may be a sensible course of action, this is where you can set yourself a specific target level and should there be a spike in the market at any time 24 hours a day that makes that level a achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically for you, this is just one of the many tools we offer on our trading floor.

If you would like assistance from me personally with your exchange then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you to discuss the options that we have available. Please feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be pleased to get back to you.

Australian Dollar exchange rates look ahead to RBA interest rate for next stages of movement

Australian Dollar exchange rates have weakened against a basket of major currencies this week so far and depending on just what we hear back from the RBA during their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement next week. Expectations are for no change to interest rates either at this particular decision or for the coming months but what will be key for the Australian Dollar will be the comments in the monetary policy statement afterwards, and the tone taken by the RBA.

Recent comments from the RBA have suggested that they are not happy with Australian economic data at present and that this will hold them back from looking to raise rates in the near future. This is slowly dropping Australia behind, investors are pulling their money out of the Australian Dollar to seek higher returns elsewhere, for example moving money into U.S Dollars where the interest rate is now higher and the currency is perceived as a safer option.

One of the key issues for the RBA at present is the fact that average earnings/wage growth is not picking up at the pace they would like it to. This causes an issue as if the general consumer’s earnings are not moving up in line with inflation, then essentially people are going to have less money in their pocket to spend which leads to the economy weakening slightly.

This issue has been quite common around the globe, however many other regions are now starting to find that their average earnings figures are rising which is giving them more room to raise interest rates which is why the Australian Dollar is starting to suffer as a result.

My personal view has been that we will have a weak year for the Australian Dollar this year, and I have been saying that for a number of months now. It does appear at present that these predictions are starting to come true.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like my assistance both with the timing of your transfer and getting the best rate when you come to book it out, then do feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you personally about your own situation and how to approach it. We specialise in currency for international property purchases/sales or clients who are emigrating or moving home. I look forward to speaking with you.

RBA leave interest rates on hold as expected (Daniel Wright)

This morning the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) announced that they would be leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% which was exactly as the markets had originally expected.

The decision didn’t have a huge impact on the value of the Australian Dollar as it had been widely expected that rates will remain on hold for the coming months.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency and a cut in rates is seen as negative so interest rate movements can be key for a currencies strength. Even the mere mention or speculation of a hike or cut in interest rates can lead to exchange rates moving quite a lot, so any hints or change to the likelihood of a rate change may be of great importance if you have a pending exchange to carry out.

I still personally feel that the Australian Dollar may have a slightly rough patch coming up, although it does have a great backbone and constantly seems to fight back even in the toughest of times.

We have a huge amount of economic data due out in China tomorrow which will be key for where Australian Dollar exchange rates head for the rest of the week, along with Chinese inflation data on Thursday too. We have very little out from Australia over the course of the week that should impact the value of the Australian Dollar so focus will no doubt be on what the data from China brings.

Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to Australia’s large amount of exports to China so this data is important for anyone looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars.

If you have the need to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be prudent to get in contact with me directly and I would be more than happy to help you.

Not only can we better rates from all major brokerages but we can also help you with the timing of your transfers, we have various contract types that we can offer from limit orders to forward contracts and can help tailor a game plan to suit you personally. Making international transfers is important and the difference from broker to broker can be thousands of Dollars. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Will GBPAUD hit 1.70?

Expectations for the GBPAUD rate to keep rising seem now linked inextricably to the likelihood of the UK raising interest rates. GBPAUD rose yesterday from 1.62 to now near 1.66 as markets believe there is an increased likelihood the UK will raise interest rates to combat rising Inflation. The Australian dollar has been performing quite well itself, in the short term this could be a spike to be seriously considering for AUD buyers.

Looking further at what we can see ahead for the UK and the pound this morning’s Unemployment data at 09.30 am UK time and tomorrow’s UK Interest rate decision are the key pieces of news to monitor for movements on GBPAUD. Should the Bank of England acknowledge that improving Inflation is a cause for concern and the market detect signals of a rate hike sterling could well have another good couple of days.

I don’t actually think we will see any UK interest rate hikes for quite some time, the rising Inflation was actually caused by increases in the price of clothes and shoes. I fail to see how this will really be enough of a trigger for the Bank of England to actually go ahead and raise interest rates but nevertheless the speculators will probably seek to push the market higher as a consequence.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars with pounds this latest movement has presented some excellent short term opportunities. The outlook for sterling remains mixed so making plans around potential spikes is key to maximising your exchange rate. We aim to ensure out clients are totally informed of all the latest trends, news and themes to help them make an informed choice about what is the best way forward.

Fore more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Australian Dollar gains strength after solid trade data overnight (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained ground against most major currencies during the Asian session due to seeing Australia’s trade balance rise more than expected during May.

Exports were up, which for a export driven country is seen as a real positive for the Australian economy and indeed the Australian Dollar. We only really saw small gains for the Australian Dollar off the back of this, but it was welcomed by those with Australian Dollars to sell in the near future, after seeing AUD exchange rates drop off earlier in the week following the RBA interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.

The RBA had set a more dovish tone than had been expected, both on the economy going forward and on future fiscal policy changes, this led to Australian Dollar weakness immediately after the release and a little further weakness during trading yesterday.

Rest of the week for AUD exchange rates?

Tomorrow we have a little economic data out from China and also Non-Farm Payroll data out from the U.S.

Chinese data can impact the Australian Dollar quite heavily due to the volume exported over there and the Non-Farm data can affect all major currencies as it will alter global attitude to risk. Currently, the Australian Dollar is perceived as a riskier currency so any slight alterations in risk sentiment worldwide can impact Australian Dollar exchange rates.

With so much going on in the market at present, it is extremely important that if you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then it is imperative that you have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side. Here at Australian Dollar Forecast we can not only help you with up to the minute market data but we can also work with you to help you time your transfer and to get the best rate when you do carry it out.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this website should you wish to receive more information on our services and I will be more than happy to get back to you as soon as I can. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

Next week to be a busy one for Australian Dollar exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Next week we have a flurry of economic data which will have an impact on Australian Dollar exchange rates after a fairly quiet end to the trading month.

On Tuesday we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision, shortly followed by the interest rate statement. At the last interest rate decision we saw no changes to rates and on top of this we also had comments that the RBA would more than likely not be looking to cut interest rates in the near future. The reason for this is to avoid adding to the current asset bubble they are witnessing and I would be surprised if that stance has changed.

It will be interesting  to see if the general view going forward has altered at all and should there be any hint towards the RBA leaning towards a cut in interest rates then we may see the Australian Dollar weaken a little.

Later on in the week we have the release of Australian import and export data early on Thursday morning, and this will also have an impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to exports being so key for the Australian economy.

We had a report released earlier this week suggesting that there actually is a rather high debt burden in Australia at present, with household debt rising extremely rapidly which may be a concern for Australia later down the line.

My personal opinion is that I can see a small period of Australian Dollar weakness coming up as there does appear to be a few different matters out there that may lead to the Australian Dollar getting a little weaker.

If you are in the position where you may need to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you have an experienced currency broker on your side. You are more than welcome to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally and I will be able to help you, both in terms of securing the very best exchange rate and timing your transaction. This can make the difference of thousands of Dollars.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak with you personally to explain exactly how I can be of assistance.

Markets await news from the U.K elections – This will impact AUD/GBP exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

As we await news on just how the U.K election will pan out, Sterling has remained fairly flat against the Australian Dollar throughout trading today. It had looked like Sterling would be pushing up and above the 1.75 (0.5714) mark in the past week or so but what we have seen is a slight shift in momentum and the Labour party clawing back seats in the polls.

This has caused uncertainty for the Pound which has led to the Australian Dollar making back ground against it and coming down to test the 1.70 (0.5882) level.

It does appear that if you trust the bookies odds (which were totally wrong for the referendum) we will be seeing a conservative majority and that will more than likely lead to Sterling strength, but we must also bear in mind that this will also increase the likelihood of a harder brexit so the markets could actually see this the other way and push the Pound back down.

All in all we have a very interesting 24 hours ahead for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling or to send Australian Dollars back into Pounds, as we could face a lot of volatility and some fantastic trading opportunities in the hours ahead.

if you are in the position where you may need to make an exchange either in the imminent future or the coming weeks and months then it makes sense to have an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side.

I have been helping clients make large exchanges to and from Australia for nearly ten years now and make sure that not only do they get the very best exchange rate but they are also kept well aware of market movements in their favour or against them.

If you feel I would be of assistance to you then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch and help you put together a plan of action for your exchange.

Australian Dollar feeling the pinch as Antipodean currencies have a poor start to the week (Daniel Wright)

So far the Australian Dollar has not had the greatest start  to the weeks trading, seeing losses against the Pound and  Sterling has pushed above and through the 1.65 (0.6060) mark today.

It does appear that the trend for AUD/GBP has now turned around a little, however the next 24 hours will be key for where it heads next with article 50 (the start of the brexit process) officially being triggered in the U.K tomorrow.

This will be a key factor for anyone looking to carry out a currency exchange involving either the Pound or Australian Dollar, as it will effectively start divorce proceedings between the U.K and the EU.

Global risk appetite appears to have fallen away a little too, as Antipodean and commodity based currencies such as the Australian Dollar have been on the decline for almost a week now.

My view for a while now is that I see currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar having a poor run in the coming weeks, as there is so much uncertainty around the world which  may lead to  a reversal of what is known as carry trading.

Carry trading is where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate and moves it into a currency with a higher interest rate, making a return on the difference. With higher interest rates the Australian Dollar is regularly used for carry trading and in times of global uncertainty you can see it weaken quite considerable as the carry trades are sold back and demand for the Australian Dollar declines.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you are looking to secure not only the best rate of exchange but to time it well too then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally to explain the various options available to you.

 

 

Australian growth figures expected to be extremely strong on Wednesday (Daniel Wright)

Wednesday sees the release of GDP figures in Australia with expectations of a fairly good jump in month on month figures and a slight improvement in year on year levels.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)  figures essentially measure the growth of an economy over a specific period of time, and should these figures come out as positive like they are expected to then we may see another bout of Australian Dollar strength overnight.

It does appear that the Australian economy is heading in the right direction once again following a fairly average run of form, and with Australian interest rates still remaining extremely favourable compared to many other economies within the world, the Australian Dollar is still a key candidate for carry trading.

Carry trading is where an investor borrows money from a currency with a very low interest rate and shifts it over to a currency with a much higher one, making their return on the difference. When the AUD is used a lot for carry trading it can strengthen due to the age old rule of supply and demand, so I feel the Australian Dollar will continue to remain fairly strong as long as the economic data backs it up and interest rates around the world do not change too much.

If you have Australian Dollars to either buy or indeed sell in the coming days, week and months then it is well worth having an experienced and proactive currency broker on your side, that not only offers you competitive rates of exchange but that can help you every step of the way in this challenging market too.

If you feel that you would like some assistance of this nature and you would like this kind of help then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to call you personally to discuss the various options available to you. You can also call our trading floor on 0044 1494 725353 (ask for Daniel Wright) we are U.K based but can help you no matter where you are in the world on sums from £5000 to multi-million Dollar transactions.